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Welcome Man, What Dry with Nick? Great Episode two seventy nine, Fresh off a not that intriguing Monday night football game, a great though, Week eleven in the NFL was it yeah? Week eleven in the NFL one o'clock Steelers Ravens delivered four point thirty Chiefs Bills delivered, even though if it made me sad, and then Sunday Night football looked like we were gonna get a laugher turned into a hell of a game. There's a great week into football, except for,
of course, for me gambling. This was my first awful weekend of the year. It's a kind of a double edged sword, Demanse. It was I did poorly against the spread, and I did poorly against the spread in the early games, and then had my you know, get back all your money. Chiefs are underdogs by five and a half minutes into Bill's Chiefs Firefire Fire on the Chiefs live money line didn't work out, you know, sometimes it'd be like that.
What I should have just done is what everyone should do for football gambling this year is make one bet a week. Demand's teaser, which was, I truly believe the only Chiefs related teaser in America that hit because everyone had them getting eight or eight and a half. You with your seven and a half pointers got him in right under the wire.
So lose my nine.
You got him plus ten. I know the and the obviously the Steelers leg of it won because they won outright. So we'll get to all of that do Monday Night football first, though, Here's what missed the cut. The Tyson Paul fight not great. Tommy DeVito is back with the Giants, and the Jets are so bad they're not even I
don't think in the show. Here's my only Tommy DeVito anecdote at the World Series, his agent was walking around like throughout the entirety of these games, and I've never in my life seen someone more eager for people to be like, hey, are you such and such? Can we take a picture? Like it was. His eagerness of people asking him for pictures could only be topped by the folks who dress up like superheroes in Times Square and that's how they make their living. Like, I've never seen
anything like it, and so more power to him. Good for him, man, But Tommy Deviato back in the league, what do you mean below the belt? What do you mean?
He's a publica a real flame right there?
All right?
Oh really, yeah, I hope it doesn't get back to him. My goodness, he's gonna throw his Riddler hat at me and I'll be cooked, all right, Toman say, let's get to the show. Oh man, oh man, go ahead. Yeah.
So last night the Texans demolished the Cowboys. It was looking pretty bad, and it actually started to look good there for a second, looked like we had a game and then they had one of the more embarrassing turnovers of the season. But the big story here isn't the Texans the Cowboys and how demoralize they look on the sideline. It just looked like they had quit on the season. You had all those players going down.
Go ahead.
Yeah, no, I so real quick. I want to say something when this game looked like it could briefly be a game, And I thought about tweeting about this last night, and then I was like, eh, I'll just explain it on the pod and we'll move on. I really disagree with Mike McCarthy's decision to take that sixty four yard field goal off the board. And I understand people's gut instinct, which is, well, hold on. When the drive started, the
goal was a touchdown. You have an opportunity because of the penalty to get first, have first and ten from the thirty one yard line. You'll still be able to kick a field goal in all likelihood if you want to. Why would you? Why would you think he made the wrong decision? And this is to me kind of like the poker gambling part of my brain. I think you the I think you have to look at all these situations demands of not all of them. But let me
rephrase it. One way to look at it is, what are my expected points from this moment of this possession. So when you've made the sixty four yard field goal, that is done. It's no longer a question will you make or miss the kick? You know what the value of that is. It's exactly three points. It's gonna be the value of three points and the clock being where it is. What do you think the expected value for the Dallas Cowboys with Cooper Rush at quarterback is first
and ten from the Texans thirty one yard line. I don't think it's much more than three. Like the way you would do the math is, what's the percentage chance they get a touchdown, what's the percentage chance they make a field goal on this possession, what's the percentage chance they miss a field goal? And what's the percentage chance they turn it over either on downs, pick whatever? And multiply all of those percentages by the points associated with it.
Zero with a turnover, zero with a missed field goal, three with a made field goal, seven with a touchdown. And you do it, man, I mean just back of the napkin math I feel like is and we can do this in real time. What are they to get a touchdown there? First and ten from the thirty one I think it's less than twenty percent. I honestly do. But let's call call it twenty percent, okay, twenty times seven points. So for that little bucket, you have one
point four points. What's the odds of them turning the ball over? Either uh, turnover or they go for it on fourth down and don't get it. I honestly it felt to me in real time like thirty five percent something like that, and that like one in three. Yeah, I mean, yeah, you know, So let's just call it thirty five percent. So that leaves forty five percent chance
you kick the field goal and make it. Let's just say Aubrey is almost guaranteed there, but that's five percent chance he misses it, forty percent chance you kick the field goal and make it. So now we've got forty percent times three. That's one point two expected points. We already had the one point four expected points. So I think you're you're expected value from declining that penalty is two and a half points and you're guaranteed the like.
So I just wouldn't have done it. So I just think you've got the context of Cooper Rushes, my quarterback. I wouldn't have done it, and the added context of and this is kind of the fuzzy math demnse Houston blew a huge lead last week. They didn't expect this to be a dog fight. Now all of a sudden, midway through the third quarter, it's a one score game, like all those things. So I thought it was a mistake. For if you have a real quarterback, then you turn
that down. I totally get it. But when Cooper rushes your quarterback and you can, you've locked in three points and you're only gonna be at the thirty one, I thought that was a mistake.
Now that's not why they lost.
No, I think that is. No. I don't think it was a glaring mistake. If we're done with him between two point six and three, like in my back of them met Napkin math, all of it. I just think everyone's gut, all of my analytically inclined friends, I think the gut is, oh, he did the right thing. And I'm saying I actually think in the context of this football game, with Cooper Rush as the quarterback, that's not the right call. Normally, if you can get a first down,
you take the first down. But this was a unique spot where it was such a long field goal. The fifteen yards doesn't from the line of scrimmage, doesn't actually put you, like even in the red zone. And the offense has been so shaky. Now as far as the Cowboys like this, and this is why Jerry keeps giving longer and longer interviews, and this is why he seems to be flailing. He built a terrible team. That's the answer. The answer is Jerry Jones is in a position now.
I understand Dak is now hurt, but they were really bad when Dak was out there. They built a team where you have three guys who are Dak is paid like a superstar, and he's you know, good to really good at times. Seedee Lamb is paid like a superstar. He is a superstar. Mike is cheap, but he is a superstar. But the rest of your team has almost no redeeming qualities. Your offensive line is mediocre, You have the worst running game in football. Your wide receivers after
Ceedee Lamb are nothing noteworthy. Your the rest of your defense you get run on. Your secondary is probably a little overpaid. Your you're just now you've been dealing with injuries. I get it, but this this is a more than it's a Mike McCarthy issue. It's a Jerry Jones issue. And I know there's a lot of buzz about oh,
Dion Sanders or the Cowboys doing something exotic. Man, they should beg Mike for Able to come there and create a real football program and block out as much of the Jerry Jones nonsense as he can and build a team that's good up front on both sides of the ball, and hope then your star power of Dak and CD can push over the top. But this whole, all these the folks being like hired Dion or draft a quarterback. Guys, they made their commitment to Dak, like Dak is the
Cowboys quarterback the next few years. You're not spending your top ten pick. If they had not signed Dak as all summer long demons, I said, hold your water, and I thought they were going to. Then they're in a unique spot. You have a top ten pick, maybe a top five picking, draft your quarterback, reset the rookie QB salary scale, Pay Mica, PAYCD. You're not paying your rookie.
You know, that becomes a much more attractive job because the upside grow with the rookie quarterback, but they paid Dak so this idea they're gonna draft Shador or anybody and then trade Deck. He has a no trade clause. The contract hasn't even started yet. The contract they signed him to kicks in next year, so they're just stuck where they are. All right, now, let's go to teams that wait. Oh one other thing. Houston probably not good enough to win more than one playoff game. And that's
okay like that. I know that's frustrating because that's where they were last year. But they are. Maybe it's the injuries, maybe it's the natural you know, schedule got tougher, they didn't sneak up on anybody, all that stuff, but they are a just really hope not to be one and done playoff team because Demons, their first round playoff game is overwhelmingly likely either going to be Baltimore or the Chargers. I don't know about you. I like both those teams
right now more than Houston. Like, I know Baltimore, but I'm saying even the Chargers like the right now. I think the Chargers are so much stronger upfront than Houston. Like so that's but so Houston's gonna be in a rough spot in their Assuming they hold off the Colts, which I think they will, they're gonna be in a rough spot in the first round. But the idea that they're gonna be a conference championship game contender or a Super Bowl contender, as a lot of people had them,
I don't think they're there yet. And there's no shame in that, but I just don't think they're there yet. All right, demonse, Let's go on to the you know the game everyone wants to hear me be sad about.
Go ahead.
Yeah, So you're a Chiefs lost to the Bills this weekend, lost their first game, and it was probably for the best.
You were saying that they needed to get that loss out of the way.
You predicted that the Bills would look impressive and maybe even win. You also said two things on TV that you're not worried about Mahomes and that Buffalo has better weapons and protection than years past. Do you fear that there's a possibility that Buffalo is better than Kansas City? Comes to January February or January? Should I say nothing?
All right? So couple things. One is I didn't say Buffalo had better weapons than yours past. They have a bet, but they do have a better offensive line and defensive line than yours past. The Bills right now have the best offensive line Josh has ever had, the best defensive line Josh has ever had, and Josh is playing the best he's ever played. And so am I worried. I'm not worried in the traditional sense like it. I think if they play in the playoff, the Chiefs are better
than them that game almost as you know. The Chiefs now still have some work to do to make sure that game's in Arrowhead, but they proved last year they can win in Buffalo in the playoffs, and they're still a huge favorite for it to be in Arrowhead. If
things hold the way they're going. In order to get to the Chiefs, the Bills will have had to play a wild card game that'll be annoying, and then a Round two game either against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Chargers one of those teams, and you know the kind of back to back physical wars. Baltimore wouldn't so much be physical, but Pittsburgh or the Chargers would be. So I feel
like the Chiefs are still in a very, very advantageous position. However, I if you were to ask me in the AFC the team I would least like to play, Like, if I have to make the list of like your wish list of playoff opponents, Buffalo's the team I would least like to play. I like. For me, the power rankings of least want to play in the AFC in the playoffs is Buffalo one with a bullet the Steelers two.
And I know that sounds ridiculous because Russ and my feelings on him, but the Chiefs tackle situation is right now in is so shaky that you do worry the team with the best edge rusher in the league, TJ. Watt, and then great guys alongside him on the d line that that by itself could just ruin the game. So the Steelers would be two, the Chargers would be three,
and then Baltimore. And we can talk more about Baltimore in a minute, but like I, Buffalo is clearly number one as far as Kansas City and not being worried like I do think there is a benefit to not having the undefeated season kind of build pressure momentum. However they do because it was the Bills game they lost and they don't have the tiebreaker they do now have work to do. The benefit that I was talking about on TV is an addition to the undefeated season thing there.
Romo said it at the end of the game. It would have been weird. It might have been, you know, one of them good problems like Marlow's. Stanfield would say. But I to lock up the one seed with seven games left, do you then run the risk that that you know, you play essentially meaningless games from mid November until the playoffs start for you in mid January. That would be a little It would be unprecedented the very
it would be odd. So I do think there's a benefit there, But I also think the Chiefs need to tighten a few things up, like Mahomes. Mahomes needs to play better early in these games. And I understand the team not looking as sharp early in games. I understand what they're trying to do as far as work on different things, try different things out during games that they can then figure out what they do or don't want
to use in games that actually matter. But Mahomes is just not so sharp early and then late, like in the fourth quarter, early the Bills go up at by nine, and all of a sudden it's like, oh, there's the Chiefs playoff offense, just a surgical right down the field touchdown, But they dug themselves too big of a hole to where despite that touchdown, they still it needed the defense to get a stop in order for them to have a chance to win, and the defense got love them
had their first He's talking about the first player.
The last, the first pick.
Yes, that's what I'm talking about. Yeah, that's exactly what I'm talking about. That was that set the tone for the Chiefs for playing catch up the whole game, like the game was being played on Buffalo's terms from that, And he's done that a few times this year, so like it. Listen, he's the best. In my I feel like he's the greatest player in the history of the league.
He's he has earned more benefit of the doubt than any player I've ever seen as far as Oh, even if he he and the offense look bad for big portions of the season like they did last year, come to the playoffs, they're gonna play perfect football, just perfect, no mistakes. But they're those things do need to tighten up. I think he and Xavier they're getting closer, Like Xavier's got to do a better job dragging his feet, but Patrick also has to do a job hitting him in stride.
But they're working on that, and so I'm not I still believe the Chiefs are the best team in the league with a bullet and they're about to get Pa Chacko back and then they get Charles A. Mine Who back and then we'll see about Hollywood Brown by the very end of the year. So they're adding pieces rather
than losing pieces. But the tackle position, the left tackle spot's got to get better, and I would think they might call Donovan Smith, who was their left tackle last year and is semi retired but has said he's you know, he's ready. If the Chiefs call and listen, they're gonna be. They're gonna be rotating guys at the number two corner
position because Jalen Watson broke his ankle. It's one of the most important injuries for the Chiefs all year, and they don't have someone to fill that role right now. But I am I worried about the Bills. No, are the Bills the scariest team in the AFC UH for the Chiefs to play, yes, go ahead, demonse.
Well after Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Do you think that the Kansas City Buffalo rivalry is the biggest current rivalry of the era?
Yeah, I mean it's weird to have a rivalry where it's not your divisional opponent, but they play literally every year in the regular season because they both win their division every year, and they play most years in the playoffs. So yeah, I would say it's the best ride. Like Baltimore Pittsburgh just has the history. All the games are great, they played twice a year. But yeah, like.
Kansas City Buffalo is the better rivalry right now. I mean it's just happens.
Yeah, the stakes are higher, it feels like, but Baltimore Pittsburgh, you know, just because it's twice the year and they're so hated to histor it. Yeah, that's fair, all right, So the hit me with the other follow ups.
Yeah, So Detroit, they have the best odds to win the Super Bowl right now?
Do you think that's fair?
I think Kansas City should be a prohibitive favorite, but I understand that I think more highly of the Chiefs than Vegas as that's fine. But the other reason Detroit has the odds it does is right now, there's there's not a bunch of teams in the NFC, Vegas believes in like they desperately want to believe in the Niners. But the Nighters are in last place in their division and now one in three in the division and an underdog to make the playoffs. So the Niners, you know
they're in, They're in rough shape. The Packers haven't looked as impressive as people maybe would have hoped. So it's really like after Detroit, unless you really believe in the Vikings, which I think is hard to do, it's just the Eagles. So I think those odds are reflected on that. There's the is so much less top heavy than the AFC.
The NFC is better in the middle, Like the fight for the seventh seed in the NFC is gonna be good teams involved in it, and the fight for the seventh seed in the AFC eight and nine might end up winning it. Like, I mean, that's gonna be really a stark difference. But at the top, the AFC is so much better. I think that's what I think. That is what the odds are reflecting there. All right, let's move on to Lamar.
Yeah, so Baltimore dropped a winnable game against the Steelers this weekend. Lamar has now lost eight of nine games.
Against the Steelers. He cannot get it done.
So Lamar are either seeds to set it on fire or just forget how to play football? Is Lamar more limited than we are thinking? Or do you think that he gets more blame for Justin Tucker missing field goals?
Okay, well, so first let me be fair to Lamar because he didn't start all those games. He's Lamar is now one in five against Pittsburgh and his crew, so it's not quite as bad as eight and nine, but it's obviously not great. He and so he's missed some games and that that it's shocking. He's only beaten the Ravens the one time. But I go ahead, Demansey, Oh no, it was just a small correction.
It wasn't I do. I'm curious here what you what you want to say now? Because you told me to jump in and say something. What do you have to say?
Well, I mean it's everybody. I don't know why it is a controversial opinion that the bigger the game, the worst Lamar plays, because it's not an opinion, it's just the facts, and it is so weird that it seems like I'm out here on an island on this opinion when it is so factually irrefutable, And it just really seems to me, and I hate to do this, but that the media is just playing favorites and not saying about Lamar what we have no problem saying about athletes
across all sports that check the box of MVP caliber guy in the regular season, who in the postseason and in the biggest regular season moments is a totally different player. The whole media was in Unison on James Harden when he was a superstar, but this applied to him. The whole media last year was in Unison on Joel Embiid when this applied to him. The whole media was in Unice on Aaron Judge a month ago when this applied
to him. But when you have a player such as Lamar Jackson who we know struggles massively in the playoffs, you then extrapolate it to, oh, what's the team in the regular season, the one team he struggles against the absolute most statistically and from a win loss record, And the answer is, oh, his hated divisional rival. And then
it's like, Okay, what's the only other team. He actually really struggles with camp beat and has a terrible statistical record and it's oh the reigning dynasty of his era. But in every other circumstance he is statistically speaking, one of the greatest players in the history of his sport. We have a word for that in sports. It's not a nice word, but it's a word we use on every athlete applies to It's called choking, getting tight the
moment's a little too big. And we did this to Peyton Manning because Peyton struggled in the playoffs, couldn't play, didn't play well against the Patriots. We did it to Peyton Manning for the first eight years of his career until he finally got over the hump, and his postseason resume was not as checkered as Lamar's and his success. And for some reason, when it comes to Lamar, I'm
an asshole. The guy has a career one ten passer rating while winning eighty percent of his games and a three to one touchdown interception ratio in every situation there is except for playoffs, Chiefs Steelers, and in those three circumstances he wins twenty five percent of his game, has a seventy five rating and has more turnovers than touchdowns. And people want to say it's coincidence. It's nothing about him type. It's not that he tightens up in big spots.
It's not that all of a sudden he misses open passes. It's just bad luck. I I it is the most.
More meeting with Lamar Jackson as it's the coaches. It's the coaching, and the more you see Labar Jackson, the better you are at stopping him. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the person it is the best coaching.
Except listen, except he's ten and two against the Bengals. He actually hasn't seen the Steelers that much because he's missed so many games. He does well against the Browns at like, guys, it is a it is a direct, a direct inverse correlation for Lamar between how big the game is and his performance in it. What is Lamar is twenty three to one with stats that are truly
not to be believed in what circumstances? The non conference games the least important games on your schedule, like I don't I And here's the other thing that is frustrating about the Lamar discourse. And this is where I think there is true hypocrisy. Every time the Ravens crush this year, every week the storyline has been look at Lamar Jackson's numbers. He's having one of the greatest quarterbacking seasons ever, twenty two touchdowns, two picks, the highest rating in the history
of the league. He's going to be a three time MVP. After one of those wins, John Harbaugh was asked how they did it, and he literally said, and I quote, well, it started with Lamar, and it ended with Lamar, and there was a lot of Lamar in between. But aside from Lamar and Lamar Lamar, the other guys played. Well that's what the head coach said. So when they win, that's the narrative, and every time they lose, this is the conversation. Why didn't they hand the ball to Derek
Henry Moore. It's like, well, I don't know, because we're throwing a preemptive parade for the presumptive MVP. You're not allowed to have the opinion. You're not allowed to have these two opinions simultaneously. Going into last week, Lamar Jackson was the league's MVP and Baltimore made a mistake by putting the ball in Lamar Jackson's hands. You can't have both those opinions. You got to pick one. And so yeah, the Lamar discourse frustrates me because I don't think people
are being honest and I think they know it. I think they know that this is I don't even have to go to his treatom on. It is exact what was said about Dak Prescott last season. Oh yeah, he's having an MVP gliber season to having the best season of his career. Great player, but we don't trust him from the postseason. We don't trust him in the biggest spots. We do this to everyone, And.
So again I would ask, I think, I really think.
I think this is the year.
I think this is the year where it'll be fair if he doesn't get over the hump this year. I think he deserves all this criticism, but I think.
He will everyone.
I think people get lost. Everyone said that last year. Last year, everyone said that's the other.
Thing that no.
They last year was Todd Munkin. He's better as a passer. They have the best they they have the best evens in the league. They have all these things. They're finally you know, he's an MVP again. And and there was a brief period where after the postseason loss where once again for the fourth time and it's four times in the postseason, the teams season lowe points was the playoff game. Everyone's like, oh, yeah, I guess this is the case.
And then everyone pretended they didn't do it. And I would ask the audience this, you as well, demanse, how early in that Steelers Ravens game, was it crystal clear to you, oh, we're not getting good Lamar today, Because I would say the first quarter wasn't over and it was obvious, it was obvious.
You can see, yeah, you see, you see the difference because well because when he's on the other when he's on the other Lamar, it's it's very flashy. That's all I was saying. I think that I think people just get lost in the flash. I don't get lost, and I'm realistic. That's why I'm I do think this year he has the potential to go the furthest that he's gone, and if he doesn't, then I will feed into the Yeah,
he just can't get through that. That means he's a narrative and him and got different things like, I get like, Dak Prescott might be having a good season for him, but he's not as good of a quarterback as Lamar Jackson is.
Oh no, there's there's no question about that. You're totally right. Lamar is a multiple time MVP in a future Hall of Famer and Dax's neither. I get that might and I guess you can look at it in one of two ways. My point is, yet, despite that, it sure seems like we hold Dak to the higher standard. Dak's got two postseason wins, just like Lamar does, and the and in one of them he was actually totally In one of his losses, he was brilliant start to finish
his rookie year. And it's weird to me, like, maybe it's true that because Lamar is such a better player, he should get more benefited doubt, Yes, that's true. It's also true because he's such a better player, it being this stark is noteworthy, and I just you can't convince me it's a coincidence that the three biggest spots the Ravens have on their schedule every year are the three biggest spots he struggles in the most. The playoffs, hated
divisional rival, best team in the conference. It would I use this analogy for I'll use it again if Aaron Judge, in addition to being awful every year in the postseason, was awful every year against the Red Sox, and whenever they played the Astros, it would be noteworthy. That's the case with Lamar. We saw it again this weekend, and for some reason it's a controversial opinion. I don't get it.
Quick break right back? What's right? Hey? Welcome back in and I want to remind you guys, the Emirates NBA Cup is here and you can win big by getting in on the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, official sports betting partner of the NBA. Picture this all thirty teams, six groups battling out every Tuesday and Friday, single elimination in season tournament culminating in the NBA Cup Championship in Vegas. Basketball lovers dream come true and the best part, you
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Void in New Hampshire, Oregon, Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gambling or gaming resources, see DKNG dot co. Slash b ball All right, Demon's eight before we get to the game. Let's do Niners Sincy topic go ahead.
San Francisco and Cincinnati both had some major meltdowns this weekend. Each of them has blown three fourth quarter leads this year, tied for the most for each team. A few field goals or some lucky bounces would have changed the outcome of their season or the trajectory there are season so far, San Francisco is plus two to make the playoffs, and since he's plus three fifty, are you taking either one of those?
These do not tell me you're taking Cincy. You gotta walk away from Cincinnati at some.
Point, So right now I wouldn't take either, but I do like Cincey's chances more than San Francisco. So let's talk about the Niners for a minute, because I don't think people recognize what rough shape they're in because they're only one game out of their division. They're five and five, same with Seattle and the Rams. Arizona's six and four. But they are now in a position we're almost assuredly
they are going to lose all tie breakers. They They're on and one against Arizona, one one against the Rams, one and one against Seattle, so the best they could hope for is to split with everyone, so they're not have any head to head tiebreakers and have a three and three divisional record and so that just puts them in such rough shape, particularly against the Rams and the Cardinals, and so they're gonna need a better record than those teams. And the other thing San Francisco is going against it
is who it has coming up. They are at the Packers, then they are at the Bills, then home for the Bears, home for the Rams, at the Dolphins, home for the Lions, at the Cardinals. So the only the only teams left on their schedule that are below five hundred is the Bears game and the Dolphins game. Dolphins game, you know, on the road against where it's not gonna be cold
in Miami. So what do we think the Niners max out at nine wins go four and three the rest of the way Packers, Bills, Bears, Rams, Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals, and I think someone else like Arizona would need So if the again, that would mean Arizona. If the if the Niners max out at nine, Arizona has to max out at eight, Arizona's got six and two of their games left are Patriots Panthers, So that would then mean they just need to win one of Seattle twice, the Vikings,
the Rams, and that Niner game. Like, I just think they're in and that's not even talking about the Rams. A Rams team that is it five wins, has games left against the Saints, Jets, and then tougher games Eagles, Bills, the Niner game Cardinal Seahawks. Like I ain't the I aink the Niners are cooked and that will lead to an interesting do we or do we not pay brock Purty question, which we can do at a later show.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are probably cooked. Thing with the Bengals is do I think it's on the board that the Broncos and Colts, who are ahead of them, you know, go on a five game losing streak at any moment. It's possible the Broncos, though, get the Browns and the Colts that I'm sorry Raiders, Browns, Cults next
three weeks. So as long as the Broncos don't fall on their face there, they should have a decent cushion going into the final three of the season, which is Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs. But maybe the Chiefs are resting people there, so the Broncos are in really good shape. And then there's the Dolphins, who I wouldn't quite right off yet Dolphins all of a sudden one two in a row the rest of their schedule Patriots, Packers, Jets, Texans, Niners, Browns. Jets get
the Jets twice, the Browns get the Patriots. That should be four wins. How can they do in the Packers, Texans, Niners batch? So I wouldn't pick either. I think Cincinnati's got a slightly better chance. You can ask.
Poked at this or hinted at this last week. I just want to give myself congratulations Zach Tyler was fired. Would Cincinnati be the best best job for somebody like Belichick?
It, I mean, yes because of Burrow? No, because of ownership. So I mean, it's just such bad ownership there. But you would have Burrow if you're Belichick, And it's like, hey man, I just want to stack these wins, catch Shula starting with Burrow and Chase. He builds the defense like the offense is already put together. That makes sense, But I just think ownership is almost disqualifying for the
top head coaches. Maybe not, but just I don't think Mike Brown's got the best reputation, especially on spending money.
Is it just is it just cheapness that he has that's his biggest flaw. Yeah, yeah, like the Jets. It's not just like negligence.
No, no, it's not. I mean, it's it's is. Yeah, you're right, it's not the worst ownership situation, but it's it's the worst ownership situation that doesn't involve like malfeasance or just rank incompetence. Right, So like rank in competence would be like Jets, Brown's malfeasans would be like what Washington used to have with Snyder. But it's right after that, so that's fair. All right, let's play the game.
All right, we were playing this or that today? First off, Justin Herbert had some big time throws against since he but almost cost the charges of the game with some bad ones up. He's in a year five? What's the deal with Justin Herbert? Is he elite or do you not trust him?
Oh? I definitely don't trust him. He has elite traits and you saw that on display in the first half Sunday night when he's just throwing twenty yard lasers, running the ball like more than he's done at any point in years, and looking totally dynamic, and then all of a sudden he goes seven of twenty out of nowhere has a fumble that could have lost him the game. It felt so much like the playoff game against the Jags, where he's just unbelievable early and then goes ice cold late,
except this one the Chargers were able to win. You know, I get frush Danny. Danny Parkin's breakfast Ball loves Herbert like I think he truly believes. He wouldn't say this, but I think he believes Herbert's the second or third best quarterback alive. That it's Mahomes Herbert Allen or Mahomes Allen Herbert. I mean, he's on the record saying that he thinks Herbert has ninety percent of the talent of Patrick Mahomes. So think about that. He thinks Mahomes the
most talented quarterback ever. Herbert's ninety percent of it. And I listen, I give Danny a hard time because when you're five, like Caleb is ten games into his career. So I am still leaning heavily on my college evaluation of Caleb Williams because that's the majority of his football career. Herbert's in his fifth season and so much of it is still leaning heavily on his traits coming out of college. So listen, he is an elite talent who hasn't quite
yet put it all together. He was close to its Sunday night.
Oh I'm sorry getting into a go ahead real with it. What do you think Herbert and the Niners would look like? What would that make their chances get Super Bowl?
Oh? I mean they'd be way, way, way better. I mean that. Yeah, I mean that for sure with all those weapons. But it should be noted. Like, here's the other thing that frustrates me out some of the Herbert commentary. For years, people were picking the Chargers to win that division and be a darker or Super Bowl contender. People loved the talent he had four years, and then when the team inevitably finished eight nine or nine and eight, people would be like, well, what do you want him
to do? He doesn't have enough talent. But then the very next year they'd run it back with the same guys. They'd be like, they can win the super Bowl, all right, next.
The lives of the Super Bowl favorites for now, but you have some doubts if they don't win the NFC. What's the reason the Lions demises golf or the defense.
I would think it'd be more likely to be the defense because the Angeloni injuries big. They already lost Hutchinson. So here's here's the problem. You know what Wild's got annoyed with me about yesterday was we were asked the question, are the Lions the best team in the NFL? And I don't know if you heard what I said, Demon's,
but you're probably not gonna like it either. You're gonna make one of those faces where you're like, oh man, that was too harsh, Like you said, like the face you made wasn't making fun of Tommy DeVito's agent for you know, of doing everything but walking around with a sign that said please take a picture with me at the Yankee game. So here's what I said about golf
in the modern NFL. I do not think you can be the best team in the NFL, considered the best team in the league if you have a civilian at quarterback. And the word civilian is what I think annoyed people. But by that, what I mean is when the other
teams you're in the debate with. So the teams in the debate for best team in the NFL right now are the Chiefs, the Bills and the Lions, And so if the other two teams have superheroes at quarterback and you have a civilian at quarterback, it doesn't mean you can't win the super Bowl. It really doesn't. But it does mean you're gonna be fighting uphill in the biggest games of the year, because when everything goes wrong, can
your guy make it right. There's only a handful of human beings alive that that applies to, and by the way, they might all be in the AFC unless Stafford can tap back into Stafford from a couple of years ago. The NFC doesn't have any superheroes. Jalen's not. Jordan Love isn't not yet. Sam Darnold certainly isn't. Kyler wants to, but he's not like Purty obviously isn't like So all
the super superheroes are guys with super hero upside. Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Lamar no, not, he's not superhero, you know, Herbert All. It's why the Colts drafted Richardson because it's like, man, we're in the AFC, we got to go with the guy that might be able to be a superhero. And some people might say Burrow doesn't qualify because he doesn't have the measurables or the traits, but his superpower is the accuracy, precision, relationship with chase ability and big moments.
Like his superpower is closer to like what Brady's was. But so I think Detroit's awesome, and I don't. I think they've done a great job building a team perfect for Jared Goff, and I don't think he's gonna ruin him. Listen, I saw brock Perty make the Super Bowl last year in the exact perfect circumstance, and they could have won. So I'm not saying they can't win the super Bowl.
What I'm saying is it's so hard for me to say you are actually the favorite, you're actually the best team if you don't have one of those guys as your signal caller.
All right, Next, we spent a lot of time making fun of Russell Wilson, but he's been great in Pittsburgh's been lighted it up over there. Meanwhile, bo Nicks now is the second best odds to win Rookie of the Year happier with their quarterback Pittsburgh or Denver.
Oh right now, probably Denver because Knicks has exceeded expectations. Now, remember before the year, when we were talking offensive Rookie of the Year, I created the category of most likely to fool people into thinking he's good, and I said bow Nicks was the number one draft pick for that. He's your age, demons, he played six years of college football. He like just a little context. People think the thing I'm joking about bo Nicks. Bow Knicks is three months younger,
three months younger than Trevor Lawrence. When I say he's an old rookie, he's an old rookie, Okay. So the he turns twenty five in January, so he had that going for him and Sean Payton's offense. So I but they're really happy because he has shown such a high floor that they feel like, Okay, we have our guy. And again, I don't know they there's a little mac Jones potential here, not fall off like that, but where he is at his full ceiling his rookie season. Russell
Wilson Man. The fact that the Steelers won that game despite Russell playing that way is a testament to their coaching and their defense. And that pick in the end zone was maybe the worst non Will Levis play of the season, so I like as happy as Pittsburgh is right now. I think Russ has actually played a touch
worse in each game of the season so far. Thought his best was the Jets, then the Giants so pretty good, Washington not great at all, and then the Ravens game, I thought he was bad and they won despite it.
All right, next, both Caleb Williams and Drake May had good games despite losses, though, But it seems like people are very high on Drake May and hardly noticed Caleb Williams Good Weekend, most illusional Caleb's critics or Drake's devotees.
You know what I'm gonna go with neither, because listen the Caleb critics, I think it's been mostly fair. People giving up on him are saying the Bears made the wrong pick, that's too much. But he hasn't played up to the level we would have hoped. And I understand why people are excited about Drake May. But this also is there's a lot of play here. One is because everyone expected and was fine with the Patriots being awful. Drake is going out there and just letting it rip,
which is super fun. He has big plays, he throws picks to end games. He makes mistakes, but then he makes awesome plays. Because for the Bears, it was like we can be a playoff team, we should be good it. We haven't gotten that out of Caleb. He has been playing a safe, you know brand of football, just don't make the big mistake. And and you hate that for a rookie. And that's because of the disparate team expectations. But the other thing, oh, this last game, so right,
So here's my hypothesis. I think Shane Waldron, who was the offensive coordinator, was like, I'm gonna be Caleb's offensive coordinator for years. We are going to try, even though we might struggle his rookie year, to install big boy quarterbacking habits where you're gonna go through all your progressions. We know you can run, don't run, stay in the pocket,
all these things. Meanwhile, the other rookies like Jaden and bo a ton of like what there were what Jaden when the guy from the Bengals was like, it's a real nice college offense. Jaden is running. He wasn't totally wrong. What he was saying was Cliff Kingsbury was telling Jaden Daniels, look at your first read if it's not there, look at your checkdown, and if it's not there, run And it worked. First read was open a lot. If not, go right to the checkdown. If not, be an athlete.
Pardon me, for the first time all year, that's what the Caleb was coached to do. Look at your first read, look at your check down. If it's not their run and he ran for seventy yards, got comfortable as the game went on. All these things. Now, that's not all quarterbacking is, and he's got to develop more. But it was a good way to level set him since it was going in such a negative reaction. All right, let's go to the next one.
Twelve weeks in and the most impactful free agents of the NFL offseason have been running backs Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, even Joe Mixon just lit it up last night. Or veteran running backs reshaped our veteran running backs reshaping the position. Running backs are worth paying or not essential.
Well at this point, given how the market has moved at this point, I think they might be worth paying somewhat so the right if we're talking six to eight million bucks, when you know wide receiver three goes for ten million. Yeah, the now it's you know what I mean. Now we've kind of flipped. Like the Chief signed Hollywood Brown for six million dollars is an ex you know, Derrick Henry makes eight. So like, I do think there is a level of where the market has moved enough
to where you'd consider it. I still think you can find them in the draft. But if what you can't do is what the Cowboys did, not spend money on one and not identify somebody in the draft you really like? All right, last one?
Demonsey, your rival Mina Khim suggests that you get on Blue Sky. It seems like people are threatening to leave X in waves, but we haven't seen the shift yet.
Get Nick right on X. Are you staying? Are you going?
Well, I'm staying. But I also did sign up. I had signed up Evidently I didn't realize it for Blue Sky years ago because it said I already had an account and it was at Gettingick right, and I'm trying to post somewhat on both places. Let me see how the So what I didn't want to do is I don't like the announcement, like I'm using this social media now, But also how then do you get people to know you're on there if you don't do that. So I'm not really sure, Listen, I'm not I'm not gonna act
like I'm leaving Twitter based on like principled grounds. Maybe maybe I should, maybe I shouldn't, but it's where, you know, I've got six seven hundred thousand people. It's a good way to get a message out still, even though the for utab is a hellscape like just follow who you follow, So I'm still using that, but I'm trying to you know, I'll try to put stuff on Blue Sky as well, because it does seem like some people left. I don't know, you know what I mean, it's I don't know that
the percentage of it, but some people left. So we'll try to post on both. That's the short version. All right, let me answer some listener take quick break answers, some listener questions. Next we'll right, all right, welcome back in. What's right with Nick? Right, demand, let's do some listener questions.
Uh splash his own, Nick, Uh, I beseech you and implore you as you enter your bachelor phase on first things.
First, consider the rams.
Oh, I'm more than considering the rams. I've got a trip scheduled to Los Angeles next week. Actually to you know, to see this Rams to the Super Bowl, take up close and in person. No, the Rams are on the short list. Rams are on the list, Eagles are on the list, Lions are on the list. Those right now are the three leading contenders for my NFC Super Bowl picks.
So don't you worry about that. Read tomorrow. Butler's question demanse and I just want to tell the audience this is sent in all caps, so everything go ahead.
Yes, this isn't all caps Toamar, Butler says Nick. Lamar didn't fumble two times, Lamar did miss two field goals. Lamar didn't get the ball ripped out of his hands, and Lamar wasn't getting penalties to start drives first and twenty.
Did Lamar play well, Damar? Or did he complete forty five percent of his passes? Like, listen, you're right, other guys also made mistakes, But even if they had justin Ducker and made his field goals, it wouldn't change fact. Lamar played really poorly, and that's just not up for debate.
And we can continue to make these excuses, but this is a it's a tough bridge when it's like they lost the game and he played poorly, But you would like me to create a scenario where they didn't lose the game because one of those things didn't happen and he didn't play poorly. Well, there's a lot of scenarios we could create that are totally fictitious. This was not a scenario. This was not the Bengals Ravens games where both quarterbacks played great and someone had to lose. This
was actually the opposite. Both quarterbacks played poorly and someone had to win. And after the Russell interception when the you got a gift and it was Ravens down five with the ball, go make a play, MVP. That's all, Go make a play, all right, Let's keep moving.
Sorry, DeMar no oder Ariguaez. The Sixers are two and eleven. Should embid try to get out of Philly, and emb.
Should try to play like an MVP and be available, like I mean, the the you know, the the call is coming from inside the house as far as Joel Embi and the reasoning, Philly is struggling. So that's like, there's not gonna be a lot of situations where and I know guys have dealt with injuries, but better than Maxie and George. Figure it out, make it work. There's nobody's running right away with the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoffs spot, She's still got plenty of time.
Next Uh, Danny Tanner. Is JJ Redick a legit head coach? Or is it more fair to say that Darvin Ham was over his skis both?
I mean, JJ Reddick is a legit head coach, ex's and O's wise. I wonder how the softer coach skills he's gonna do well with and but Darvin Ham was also clueless, all right?
Next one, Scott Frasier Nick, I if Nick, if Cousins keeps playing this bad, should the Falcon start?
Pinnis Uh, not yet, but let's see if it continues like they're still in first in the division, and there's you know, they see if it stabilizes. But the last few weeks Cousins has looked really, really shaky. Rene Matta asked me, when does the poker tournament come on? Not for a few months, so I'll let you guys know. Uh. And Tommy DeVito's agent evidently says I'm welcome for a photo. I don't believe that's actually his agent. That's this isn't
actually obviously, but that is Deman's. That is what he was wearing one of the two games that I was at, an iridescent glowing Yankees coat and that hat. And I'm here to tell you of the two days he was getting that, I saw that I was two Yankee games. Of that games four and five, this was the least the less ostentatious of the two looks. I'm not making it up, guys.
When I saw him in like green it was like a green blazer or something, and like the soup pants and he had on like some Jordan elevens or something that one I thought was called might have been different different venues, but.
The I mean, I yeah, I listen nobody. And it was also I know, it's not I don't like the guy. I didn't say I don't like the guy. Let's not do that. I'm just telling you it was interesting to watch someone like take laps and dart their eyes around like if anyone noticed me, anyone got their phone out, anyone want to quick snap a quick pick? All right, see you guys on the herd. And on first things first, Sorry, Tommy DeVito's agent what's right. Hey, thanks for watching. If
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