Mahomes vs Stroud, Cousins Benched & Nick’s Picks Week 16

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with some elements and stuff. Since today we don't have the visual elements for it, We're gonna do it the way we used to do our gambling shows on Thursdays or Fridays, where Demanse and I will go through every game on the slate and then eventually get to the actual but five picks we're making demands will do his teaser, so we'll do it that way. Also, I guess this is kind of weird because if you're already listening to this,

you're probably already subscribed on audio. But that means you're our most dedicated audio listener, so like rate, subscribe, review iTunes, Spotify, all that stuff. And if you're like, oh man, I always listen this way, I'm not that, you can also subscribe to the YouTube page, which typically is where we go live for these things. Demonse, how are you?

for the bank. There's like, oh, there's all these different scenarios they need and I'm not saying Cincinnati is going to be able to execute the following scenarios, but it is quite simple. What Cincinnati needs to make the playoffs.

They need to win their remaining games. And why am I talking about Cincinnati here, because they need to win their remaining games, and they need the loser of tonight's game to lose its remaining games, and so they need to win out, and whoever loses tonight, they need them to lose out, which is why from a playoff pictures standpoint, the team with eight wins in this game is actually in far better shape than the team with nine wins.

So let me explain that the Chargers come in eight and six, the Broncos come in nine to five, but the Chargers after tonight, and if the Chargers win tonight, they're locked in. The Chargers after tonight have the Patriots and the Raiders, So even if the Chargers lose tonight, if they can just win one of those games, they're

going to be fine. Denver, on the other hand, after tonight is at Cincinnati and then has the Chiefs in Week eighteen, in a game the Chiefs may or may not neat, and so the loser of tonight is up against it. Oddly, the loser of tonight is more up against it. If the nine win Denver team loses, than

if the eight win Charger team loses. I this is not one of my picks, but I do like the Chargers in this spot because I think these are two of the best defenses, and while Denver's offense has been humming statistically speaking, I watched them this past weekend against the Colts in what was a massively important game for them in their playoff chances, and they try desperately to give that game to the Colts, and the Colts simply

wouldn't take it. So I if I again, not one of the picks, but my lean tonight would be that the Chargers get the win. And I'm here to tell you if that happens, it is on the board that Denver misses the playoffs entirely. Let me ask you this demanse. Of these two teams, let's say Baltimore and we'll get to them later ends up winning the AFC North and Baltimore gets the three seed. They beat Pittsburgh this week and they end up winning the AFC North, they get

the three seed. Which of these two teams would you rather your Ravens playing Round one? Because one of them's almost assuredly gonna be the sixth seed, So Denver or the Chargers.

in either of those categories. He also, this year it's gonna be another year he doesn't make the Pro Bowl. It's potentially another year they don't win double digit games, and it is going to be an odd spot if five years into his career, Justin Herbert has one double digit win season ten and seven, one playoff appearance, one Pro Bowl appearance, zero playoff victories, and zero A level

seasons that aren't grated on the rookie curve. I know the talent is there, and I'm not the you know a lot of those seasons previously that went at Rye. I'm not laying totally at his feet, but five years in, you would have liked to see more improvement from Justin Herbert. His passer rating and that's not everything, but his passer rating by year ninety eight, ninety seven, ninety three, ninety three, ninety seven. His yards per game have plummeted this season.

That's more a stylistic thing. His completion percentage has hovered right around sixty five sixty six percent his whole career. His yards per attempt have been right in the low sevens every year throughout his career. He just seems so much like the same player he was as a rookie. And the reason we loved him as a rookie was because it's like, man, he's already this good think of how good he's going to get, and we didn't quite to me, we haven't seen that leap all right, next

game is Texans Chiefs. And that's not one of my official five picks, Demanse, but it is because I made what I think is one of the sharpest bets anyone has made in the NFL all year. So, and I have the text history to show it to prove it. I'm not going to We're not on camera right now, so I can't post it anyway. Monday afternoon at work, was it Monday or Tuesday? No, it was Tuesday, Tuesday at work, I said to Wilds and Greg. I was like,

the Chiefs are gonna practice today. The practice report's gonna come out. Mahomes is going to have practiced in some capacity, and this line is gonna flip. And I texted my gambling kind of group chat, and I texted my bookie, who's You're like, why do you need a bookie? Gambling's legal. Well, sometimes you're trying to get stuff in last minute, or

sometimes you're out of state. I texted all of them and I was like, Hey, I'm not gonna try to you know, I don't have inside information here, but I'm telling you guys, right now, I believe Patrick Mahomes is playing in this football game. And the Chiefs at that moment were plus two points and plus one ten on the money line, and around two pm Tuesday, I fired a nice three unit bet on the Chiefs money line

at plus one ten. It now sits at minus one seventy and the Chiefs are three and a half point favorites based purely off the belief in the indication that Mahomes is going to play. Which has have you? Have you seen come across your timeline these lunatic fans of other teams that are now claiming Mahomes fakes these injuries.

think is going to happen. Now. The Mahomes injury stuff, I do have to say it is it adds to my list of man I worry about the literacy literally and figuratively of society. When there are conspiracy theories about injuries that we saw take place, people were like, oh, the like the the only other time Mahomes suffered a significant ankle injury. We saw it happen in the playoff game. We saw him barely be able to walk. We saw afterwards him fighting not to get an X ray, the

whole thing. We saw how he looked. We saw it when the Jackson player did right, did the knee drop tackle, and on Sunday we saw it. You saw his legs get bent back, him get crushed, get high loaded. We saw it happen. So it's not like a situation where it's like, oh, report out of Kansas City Mahomes got dinged in practice and they're worried he's not going to be able to play like that. That isn't what's happening here. So I'm legitimately surprised that this narrative exists, but maybe

I shouldn't be. I So, with all that said, they're not one of my picks demands because I don't the Chiefs don't cover field goal spreads and listen, I do think they're gonna win. But on general gambling principle, if you could have gotten the Chiefs getting two and a half, betting them now laying three and a half is insane. We're gonna spit skip Pittsburgh Baltimore because that's gonna be one of the picks. Brown's Bengals's next one. And Bengals

now find themselves in this very weird spot. They're seven and a half point favorites. Let's just assume, okay, for the sake of argument, that they win this week. They could demand be facing in back to back weeks teams with nothing to play for, which here's the spot they

could be in. If the Broncos win tonight, the Broncos lock up a wild card spot tonight, and they play the Broncos next week this they play the Steelers in Week eighteen, which very well could be at that point locked into the three seed, can't go higher, can't go lower, and how that will play out now, as I talked about earlier, if the Broncos lose tonight, then Bengals Broncos, damn near becomes a playoff game. It is a playoff game for Cincinnati, and it becomes maybe one for Denver.

Not quite because Denver would have another chance the following week. But a you know, a tricky spot. I don't love the way Cincinnati's played, but Cleveland going to DTR, who they have this odd fascination with Dorian Thompson Robinson over Jamis tells me Cleveland's not trying to win, And it's not that Jamis has played great, but he's clearly better than DTR. So I wouldn't lay the seven and a half. But I would be shocked if Cincinnati loses this game,

like truly shocked. Cardinals Panthers and Eagles commanders are both picks of mine. So we're gonna wait on those Giants. Falcons is the next one. Have you seen the line for Giants Falcons?

as a whole. That you're playing a team that was so underwhelming in last week's game that they benched their quarterback in a win, they're gonna eat the contract, and you're getting nearly ten points. You're getting more than two scores.

end zone. Then you run that stupid double pass. Nick Benito returns it, and you know you went from being a coin flip to make the playoffs to being on life supports make the playoffs. Then a really interesting one Demons Lions Bears, with the Bears getting six and a half. Here's why it's an interesting one. The Bears offense, particularly in the first half of games, has been just horrific, just as you know, and Caleb's been bad early, and that further leads to credence to my theory that Caleb

is just being way too cautious. You know, how many interceptions do you think he has on this eight game when losing streak? It's none, right, I think it's zero zero zero. Now he has a couple of strip sacks, but zero intercept They've lost eight in a row. He's thrown no picks, seventeen touchdowns, five interceptions on the year, which sounds really good, but he is just refusing to take chances with the ball down the field, which is hurting him. And it's also why in the first half

they've been able to do nothing. But then in the second half they're trailing, there's a deficit and he's willing to let it rip a little bit more. Here's why I say this is an interesting one. The Packers offense is really good. The Bills offense is great. So the Lion's allowing seventy nine points the last two weeks to those two teams. Yet it's concerning, but it's like, well,

those are some of the better offenses in football. If the Lions defense, who I don't care what Dan Campbell tries to say publicly the Lions, He's clearly has no faith in them, as evidence by the on site kick, the fourth down call at the end of the previous game. If the Lions defense lets the Bears offense look hell, just functional, the Lions are cooked. And I don't This

is almost unfair. It's a cruelty of the NFL. But the at some times there's a year where a championship level team has so many injuries concentrated on one side of the ball, they're just done ey. To this day, if you ask me what's the best Chiefs team ever, my answer is the twenty twenty Chiefs. They didn't win the Super Bowl. In fact, they got blown out in

the Super Bowl. Why because they had cluster injuries on their offensive line, and they just they all of a sudden had replacement offensive linemen in the Super Bowl and it couldn't overcome it. And I worry that something similar

has happened with Detroit. So I'm not so concerned. I'm not concerned at all, even with the day Montgomery injury, which sucks for them about the Lions offense, but that Lions defense, that's something to watch this weekend, pending you know how they are able to look against Caleb and the Bears. All Right, Rams Jets is gonna be one of my picks this week, so we'll get to that

in a minute. Vikings Seahawks is a really fun one where the Seahawks are getting three points at home Seattle after a really rough Geno game and getting blown out by the Packers after having a nice four game winning streak, finds themselves really on the ropes now. It is a weird spot because their big game obviously is the Rams in Week eighteen, but they have to at the very least win one of their next two in order for

that game to be a big game. The Vikings quietly just hanging out with a twelve and two record, one seed and division still available to them, controlling their own destiny, but a brutal final stretch of in Seattle home for the Packers. Then at the Lions they went out. They're the one seed, but those are also all incredibly losable games. I'm really curious what Brian Flores is and that defense does against Gino. Coming off one of Gino's worst games

of the year. I probably lean Minnesota in this spot. Patriots Bill's gonna be one of the picks. And then we get to some ugly games Niners Dolphins, which should have been sounded like it was going to be a marquee game at the beginning of the year, and everybody knows I'm interested in how Purty looks. I'm you know, the Tua. I think the jury is out on Tua. The jury is in. Pardon me on Tua. When things aren't perfect, he's going to look in over his skis Dolphins.

Some Dolphins fans are still in denial, some have come around. The pretty thing that I find interesting is he actually has been able to do okay with different receivers, like Ayuk goes out, Juwan Jennings plays well, Deebo's not the same guy whatever. But when Trent Williams hasn't been there, He just has been a totally different player. Shanahan opened the possibility this week that Trent Williams doesn't play again this season, and then we remind you Trent Williams this

summer before next year turns thirty seven years old. And the Niners obviously have a very interesting offseason ahead. Kirk Cousin's availability, Sam Darnold's availability, the report that party won on top of market money, all of that is going to make John let what what's crazy demand?

feel good about. But it's sixty million a year, You're like, what did we do? It's is he the guy? Is he not the guy? If he's the guy, then the price is the price, and sixty million or fifty five million or fifty two million, it's not distinction. If he's not the guy, then you're not gonna feel good at forty five million. Forget fifty forty five million. If he's not the guy, you're not gonna feel good about many. Well, yeah, of course you get.

But the reporting is he wants Trevor's deal, and then some five to seventy five and by the way, he has a better resume than try. I understand that, but he looks at what Tua got, what Trevor got, what Dak got, and said, I'm more accomplished than certainly Tua and Trevor. It's an argument with Dak and so it is a very interesting spot that becomes more interesting if after one of the worst games of his career this past Thursday, he has another bad one against a kind

of floundering Dolphins team. Jaggs Raiders is interesting only in this regard the Raiders desperately need to lose it. Now. You can say the Jags need to lose it too, but the Jags draft position is not the same level of importance for teams that aren't drafting a quarterback. Yeah, Jacksonville would love to be able to take Travis Hunter or whoever you know. The top non QB on their board is the Raiders, though right now are fighting with

the Giants for the number one overall pick. But there are amazingly seven teams right now seven two or three wins, so the Raiders are one win away from all of it, going from potentially the number one pick to potentially the sixth or seventh pick. So this is a must lose for both teams, There's no way around it. But it's more of a must lose obviously for the for the Raiders, pardon me, Bucks Cowboys. Cowboys getting three and a half, the Bucks have to keep winning. Baker's top six in

every passing category. I like the They're not one of my picks, but I like the Bucks in this spot. And then another massive line, green Bay laying fourteen and a half at home against the Saints. With the Saints quarterback situation in total disarray, obviously green Bay should take care of business. Okay, that leaves us with five games. Steelers Ravens is a game, Rams Jets is a game, pat Bills is a game. Panthers, who are the Panthers?

The Cardinals Cardinals is a game. Pardon me? And Washington Philly is a game. We'll do those five picks plus Demonse's teaser, next quick break, right back, what's right? All right? Welcome back in What's right with Nick right last week, fourth straight winning week. Demonse three and two last week. So that means we are fourteen and six in the last four weeks of picks, which puts us six games above five hundred on the year forty thirty four and one.

Last week, we had the Rams plus three at the Niners, they went out right, the Jets minus three at Jacksonville. That one was in question for a large portion of the game. But we got the win Bucks plus three at the Chargers. That one was never in question. And then two ones that we were on the wrong side of. Calnea laying two and a half against Dallas. Dallas played one of the best games it's played all year. And

Detroit laying two and a half against Buffalo. Uh. Detroit tried to get back in this game, but obviously could never stop Josh Allen. So on the wrong side of that one. All right, first one this week, Demons.

against the Ravens. Obviously, Lamar uh has played his worst football against the Steelers, zero to five against the spread, one and four straight up, and in this matchup underdog is sixteen to two and one against the spread over the last decade, covering by almost a touchdown each time. And as we've said, Tomlin is an underdog against divisional opponent twenty six, nine and two, So it's just an auto fire Pittsburgh. Lamar struggles against this team. Now. I

don't love the Pittsburgh injuries, particularly George Pickens. We'll see about TJ. Watt. That's not great. But the Steelers win the division by winning this weekend. The Ravens stay alive for the division by winning this weekend. I like Pittsburgh plus the points. I know you're a Lamar guy, Demonse, but I feel like you like my side of this one too.

of football Eagles, Lions, Chiefs, Bills. So they have been for the last two and a half months one of the very best teams in the NFL. I don't trust the Jets defense against Stafford and Company. And the Jets just got their win. They're not going to finish the year on this horrific losing streak. The Rams have to have it. McVeigh by the way oddly seven to zero going west to East as a favorite, and they've always

been a really good covering team. At the end of the year, fourteen and two against the spread in December, I think the Rams could could They're one of the teams that could win the Super Bowl. The Jets are one of the seven or eight worst teams in football. I'll take the Rams minus three next one.

of his hands. No design. Josh Allen runs get the ball out, quick, run the football, just get out of there with a win that doesn't lend itself to a blowout. Drake May, on the other hand, has been trying to cover back doors spreads all year. It's a divisional game. I'm getting more than two touchdowns. It is not that I think New England can win. It's that I just think Buffalo is going to have a methodical, boring game

plan as they go Patriots, Jets, Patriots to end the year. Also, bonus take here, I think that they are going to see on Saturday the Chiefs beat the Texans, and the dreams of the one seed will basically be dead if that happens. If the Chiefs beat the Texans, then the Bills path to the one seed would be they have to go undefeated and the Chiefs have to lose their final two games. And so I just don't think they're going to be you know, in laser show, blow the

other team out mode. I'll take New England plus fourteen and a half, all right, Last time.

In the margins late game, you know, it could either team could win. I don't love. I didn't love honestly how they played, even in that Patriot game. It's just the Patriots can't get out of their own damn way, and they end up, you know, being up thirty to ten late in that game, end up winning thirty to seventeen. I could see the Panthers winning this game. I thought the Panthers had been playing really well and then obviously

play Laiden egg against Dallas. But the Panthers, I don't think they are going to end their year on a seven game losing streak. I think they're gonna get a win. And even if they don't get a win. Uh, this feels like a yeah, this feels like a field goal game. Yeah, feel a divisional game in Carolina. Uh, not a divisional game. Pardon me. Arizona's in the West, Carolina's in the South. But in Carolina, getting four and a half points feels like a twenty one to seventeen, twenty four to twenty

one type of game. This was, I will admit, the hardest one. I found four games I loved, and then one game I was like, well we need This was the fifth so if you're not tailing all my picks, this would be the one to leave out. But I like Carolina getting four and a half in this spot. And then the last one a game. This was my fourth one and a game I like a lot.

lock it up. I don't think Washington's going to win this game, but I do think getting three and a half points, I think they could win. And getting three and a half points is too big of a spread when Washington is healthier than it was during its losing streak, Jade, and I think is the Ribs finally aren't bothering him and he's playing great. And when you look at Washington this year, they their losses. Take out Week one to Tampa, they lose the Ravens by a score, the Steelers by one,

the Eagles. That Eagles game the first time around was really weird because that game late in the third quarter was ten three Washington, and then there were some turnovers,

some weird plays. Saquon scored two long touchdowns within thirty seconds of each other, and all of a sudden, Phillies blowing them out, and so I mean by a win probability standpoint, Washington was the favorite in that game with ten minutes left and they end up getting you know, they're down twenty six to ten, five game minutes left or five game minutes later. I think this is twenty seven to twenty four Philly and maybe twenty seven to

twenty four Washington. So I'll take the divisional dog getting at least three and a half. So the picks are as follows Pittsburgh getting six and a half, the Rams laying three, New England getting fourteen and a half, Carolina getting four and a half, and Washington getting three and a half in this game. Now to Demonse's teaser, which I tried to warn him off of last week, I gave it a d. It sadly didn't win, but not for the reason that I thought it wouldn't. I didn't

love that you crossed the zero with Cincinnati. Yeah, that one was the best leg. You were nervous about those twenty four points with the Giants, but luckily it was just enough sweat. But it was actually the Chiefs forcing six turnovers and blowing out the Browns well, beating them by fourteen. That ruined you. What do you have this week?

a big spot. They're not gonna get blown out fourteen points, come on out and then.

are betting first touchdown for first drive results. And I'm gonna go ahead and stay out of that one myself. Well, I just don't like it. I'm just not I am just personally not gonna have a part of that, all right. Hope you guys enjoyed the audio version of today's show. Next week's schedule we'll call it in flux. Right now, the plan is to have Christmas week off for the pod, but since Demonsday will be in New York, maybe we'll do something in person while he's here. I'm not sure,

but right now, just be checking your feed. Hit the bell so you know when we go live on YouTube, like rate, subscribe, review, do all that stuff. Happy Holidays, everybody, see you guys on TV in a few hours. What's right? Hey, thanks for watching. If you're still here, do me a favor. Hit the subscribe button, then hit the bell so you can be notified when we have new episodes. After you've done that one more favor, go to your favorite audio

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