Lamar vs. Allen, National Championship Preview & Nick’s Divisional Round Picks

Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.

Like I mean, I she her iPad might overheat by how much she's gonna be on roadblocks and FaceTime with her friends just up in her room. She's basically gonna be like a latchkey kid this weekend. But there's what do you want me to do? Hey, we get we gotta play it. We got the four best football games of the year coming up. Your mom's gonna be on a beach somewhere needing a passport, and I there's nothing I can do. So, I mean, it just is what it is. I cannot wait, and let's get right to it.

Here is what missed the cut for today's show. A Quinn Yours has declared for the NFL Draft that is not on the this week's show. A Trevor wants a young offensive coach that's on the show, and Nick Sirianni allegedly has no issue with aj Brown reading I do not believe him. That is not on the show either. I just think they are just like, man whatever, like you're just gonna do your thing. I suppose so all of that missed the cut today. He uh sure, Yeah, sure,

he's just trying to keep it rolling. I would say better coaching would be having enough firm control of your team that your star player doesn't weak in week out, even when you're winning, cause a media malstrom around him being disgruntled. But you know, to each their own. All right, let's get to the game of the weekend, Game of the year. Baltimore Baltimore Buffalo.

But the key to this game is probably Derick Henry, and I think most Ravens fans and Ravens betters want this to be a game that Derick Henry is the star actor of rather than Lamar Jackson. Now Lamar was exceptional. In round one and round one they were both awesome. But in this game, when you look at in particular the edges that Baltimore has, it's their giant, powerful offensive

line up against a somewhat undersized Bill's defense. Additionally, when you don't have to say flowers and listen, he hasn't been ruled out, but he didn't practice yesterday, it is going to have to be a Dereck Henry game. And I think that what makes you nervous if you're a Ravens fan is we have seen a tendency in the past, particularly if Lamar is up against another elite quarterback, that they seem to call a game plan that says, Lamar, go throw for throw with this guy, and that's not

their best way to win. Their best way to win is the way they played last week, where they utilize the fact that Lamar is as devastating a rushing threat as any quarterback in NFL history. You then add you have a first ballot Hall of Fame running back, and then you can take advantage of downfield passing because the other team is so concerned about what you can do

in the running game. That's their best path. The way they played the Chiefs in the AFC title game, the way they played the Chiefs in Week one of the season was no, we're gonna have Lamar be a pure pocket passer, and when they do that, that offense is not as terrifying. I understand that Lamar's passing numbers are elite.

I absolutely get that. I also understand the games are televised and he as he is as brilliant as any player in league history at melding the threat to run while also staying a willing passer and taking advantage of the fact that the defense has caught in between two bad options. But we also know that win and that's why I thought that third and thirteen touchdown on the opening drive against Pittsburgh was such a big play for him.

He has not historically been as effective in spots where there's not the threat to run at all, the defense can purely play the pass. That's when the Ravens offense

has been stymied. Now it wasn't that in the few spots, the few third and longs he had against Pittsburgh, he came through repeatedly, and so that Derrick Henry is the key kind of focal point when the Ravens have the ball and when the Bills have the ball, it's actually, oddly I don't want to say similar, but it's also about the running game, except for the Bills, it's more about Josh Allen's running, which is, the Bills are not going to be able to create enough plays, big plays

through the air or James Cook in order to beat the Ravens unless the Ravens offense just falls apart. The only way they can create enough big plays is if Josh Allen has at least three, if not four, devastating scrambles where it's third and medium or third and long, it is a pure passing situation and Josh Allen surveys the field it's not there, and then goes and does

Josh Allen things with his legs. Because the Bills do not have the talent on the receiving corps to exploit the Ravens secondary, which has been really good the second half of the season. What the Ravens, what the Bills do have is the best offensive line in the AFC. In fact, the two offensive lines in the AFC might be playing in this game, and so this should be an all time game. I think the Zay Flowers injury really matters because when the Bills defense has looked vulnerable,

it's been because that back end can't hold up. I also think that, and I love this part about playoff football. I know other people don't. I think the weather is a huge factor here. It is supposed to be a real feel. It's supposed to be eight degrees with a

real feel of negative three. Now, the other really unique thing about this demanse is not that Lamar's you know well documented does not like the cold Florida kid, but also that I the Ravens this week have been practicing indoors because their field, I guess, is frozen, and I want to get you, so I'm gonna read you directly from Baltimore Ravens dot com. Though the Ravens are in store for an ice box at high Mark Stadium, they did not practice outdoor with outdoors Wednesday for a very

simple reason. The ground is frozen. We got it as cold as we can in here right now. It will be even colder tomorrow when I get all the water shut off in here so the pipes don't freeze, Harball said, so we'll have it cold. Would love to be outside but we just can't. The fields are too hard and they're frozen. I don't love that.

outside of right now. And however cold it is right now in Baltimore, it is much colder in western New York. So that's now people can say that that's gonna make it harder to tackle Derrick Henry, and it might like that is that is a thing that could happen where people don't want to tackle Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry has you know, he hasn't played in one of these spots prior to the Pittsburgh game in quite some time. His last three playoff games before the Pittsburgh game. We're all

bad by his standards. Now, that was teams where every single person on the opposing defense, like we stopped Derrick Henry. We win. But he went twenty for sixty two against the Bengals, he went eighteen for forty against Baltimore, and he went nineteen for sixty nine against the Chiefs in

the AFC Championship game. What's unique about that three game stretch is his playoff career prior to that was thirty for one to ninety five against Baltimore, thirty four for one point eighty two against the Patriots, twelve for twenty eight against the Patriots in a loss, and twenty three for one point fifty six against the Chiefs in a win. So, Derek listen, Derek Henry for his playoff career has eight games, three of which four of which, pardon me, are A

plus games, and four of which were bad games. It's really he's never had like an average playoff game. He has gone for either more than one hundred and fifty yards or less than seventy yards in all eight of his games. It's a really unique game. Like so when you look at it, you're like, oh, he's played in

eight playoff games, has nine hundred rushing yards. He gets you about one hundred yards a game, but that that's not true going from in kind of ascending order his rushing yards per playoff game or twenty eight forty sixty two, sixty nine and then one fifty six, one eighty two, one eighty six, one ninety five. So it really is like, you're not again. The past is not necessarily an indication of the future, but based on the past, you don't

get B plus Derrick Henry playoff games. You get C minus or worse or holy that guy was dominant and by the way his team now again it is not. He was on a Titans team with Ryan Tannell as the quarterback, so that is not the situation here. But the four games he didn't hit seventy yards zero to four and the four games he had at least one fifty four and oh like now those are that's not

surprising to anyone. And this Ravens team is far better built than any of those Titans teams to be able to win even if he doesn't have a monster game because they have Lamark quarterback, not Derrick Henry. But that is something I'm sorry, not Ryan Tannehill. That is something I'm super excited to watch, and we'll get to the pick part of it later. But the Bills being a home dog is noteworthy. They weren't a home dog against

the Chiefs last year. They haven't been a home dog in the playoffs since anyone have the year I'll tell you nineteen sixty seven, and they haven't been a home dog in the regular season in their last forty some games. So it's surprising to me that Buffalo is a home dog. Now. We shouldn't disregard. We can't talk this game without acknowledging the fact these two teams did play earlier this year

and it was not a classic. It was a route thirty five to ten, Buffalo up, I'm sorry, Baltimore up twenty one to three at the half was Baltimore Derrick Henry ran twenty four times for a buck ninety nine. Lamar only had to pass the ball eighteen times. Run of those eighteen pass attempts through for one sixty couple

touchdowns a one thirty five rating. Baltimore ran for two hundred and seventy yards and Josh Allen didn't do anything Josh Allen ran the ball five times for twenty one yards, threw at sixteen to twenty nine for a buck eighty, no touchdowns, no picks at seventy four rating. So they did. Now that was back in September. But they played and it was a true role and so that is And by the way, it wasn't a game. Let me make

sure I'm right about this. I don't think the turnover battle. No, the turnovers were one to one, so you got a true route in the game when turnovers didn't really play a factor. So that's a big check mark in Baltimore's favor. They doubled them up in yards and they just Derrick Henry had his way with them. So we'll see. I said it before, I'll say it again.

football game was. I hope it goes deep into Sunday night and whomever wins comes out limping and battered and bruised to get ready to come to Arrowhead the following week. I will I will give my pick during our gambling portion of the segment in a few minutes. But let's move on to the next game.

played that well. I thought that Houston was like if Herbert had played anywhere close to what his standards supposed to be, that game should have been seventeen to nothing early second quarter and the Texans should have just been dead in the water. Instead, the Chargers let the Texan stick around six nothing for an hour, and then finally Houston made a couple plays. Then Herbert throws the pick six, and all of a sudden, the game is flipped entirely.

I this Chiefs team you're about to see on Sunday Saturday is the first time all year long they're anywhere close to hole. Okay, so here's how it's gone for the Chiefs this year. Before the season even starts. But uh, Hollywood Brown breaks his collar bone. He's out less than a month. Then Rashi Rice goes down. Now take him out of the picture entirely because he's not coming back. Pa Checko makes his ankle or something out of his legs, ankle,

whatever it was, he's out. Charles Amene, who their big free agent acquisition from a year ago, had torn his ACL in the AFC Championship game last season. He doesn't play the first three months of the year. Then Jalen Watson, the second best corner on this team, breaks his ankle. At the midway point of the season, they are shuffling in left tackle after left tackle, trying to figure it out.

Bringing DJ Humphries in his first game. He pulls his hamstring and now, oh yeah, and by the way, Travis Kelce was, you know, on a bit of a pitch count all year and really trying to amp up for this moment. And now they enter the postseason with DJ Humphreys back and healthy, with Hollywood Brown back and healthy, with Isaiah Pacheco back and healthy, with Charles Aminehu back and healthy with I left something out there, the oh, Jalen Watson back exactly right, thank you, practicing in full

and Mahomes. In the two games with Hollywood Brown, the Chiefs averaged twenty eight points a game. Mahomes had a one to ten Basser rating, six touchdowns and no picks. You saw a glimpse of what the Chiefs were gonna look like come the playoffs. In that three games in eleven days, win these three games, get the one seed. And it was the best three games they played all year. And now you're going to see a rested, hungry, ready

Chiefs team. I'm the they might throw it back in second gear in the second half if the Texans don't put up a fight. But I'm telling you right now, here's one little prior to the gambling show note, Chiefs over first half points might be the best bet of these NFL playoffs. The producers can tell me what it is. My guess is it's probably fourteen and a half. You

guys can put in the dock real quick. If you guys want to look up what it is exactly, I'm trying to find it right now as I'm talking to you. But the Chiefs over first half points? And is there what's the first half spread? First half spread is Kansas City minus four and a half. I like that. What I love is the well, I mean, I can probably game it out. What the first half? Yeah, I mean Vegas thinks that this game is gonna basically be thirteen and a half? Is the Chiefs first half point spread,

point total. I'm telling you right now they might have if they if the Chiefs receive the opening kickoff, they'll have the thirteen and a half by the end of the first quarter. That much is so again, Like now, I do think we might get Andy Reid's shutdown mode in a playoff game if like the halftime score is twenty to three. But no, I'm not gonna see the Chiefs a week from Sunday. Say it again to manse nothing.

audience one other thing before we move on. So Patrick Mahomes has suffered, there's been three injuries in his career that he has had to leave the game because of. One was the quarter back sneak years ago that he didn't miss two weeks because he dislocated his kneecap got carted off the field. I thought I was gonna collapse.

The other two both happened in playoff games. In the Chiefs first playoff game of the year against the Browns in the twenty twenty season, they thought he suffered a concussion. He actually got choked and passed out, and so they he was out and they wouldn't let him come back in. It was a crazy play because like he blacked out temporarily, so his knees buckled, So they said no concussion, but he had no If you watch the play and I talked to him after the fact, there was no head injury.

It was just they tried to tackle him and got their arm around his windpipe and he passed out. And that was the Henny thing as possible, Chad Henny moment where he runs for it on third and seventeen and then they throw the pass on fourth and one to beat the Browns and Baker the other one. He came back in this game but was the Jags game when I think it was arden Key did the hip drop tackle he'd sprained his ankle. The other three the other four, So in his career, two of his six first playoff

games he hasn't played the whole game. The other four, the Chiefs have won thirty one to thirteen, fifty one to thirty one after being down twenty four to nothing, forty two to twenty one, and twenty six to seven. They have won them all by at least nineteen points or eighteen points, pardon me, In fact, they have won them by that's so fun. They beat the Browns, they beat the Colts by exactly eighteen, They beat the Dolphins by exactly nineteen, they beat the Texans by exactly twenty,

and they beat the Steelers by exactly twenty one. So eighteen nineteen twenty twenty one they had scored the They have scored thirty one, fifty one, forty two, and last year twenty six in negative twenty degree weather. That vintage Chiefs team that you've been looking for all year, you're gonna see Saturday afternoon. I don't know if it will be for the full game, because I don't know if the Texans Dolphins is gonna keep it close, but certainly for the first half.

And that's what the Rams have now. One instance of the team having the decided advantage at coaching quarterback and losing is actually the Chiefs to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game in overtime in twenty twenty one. On Another example would be I we now would say the Vikings to the Giants, but at the time I don't know if people thought Kevin O'Connell was better than Brian Dable. Brian Dable just won Coach of the Year, and so

I just this Rams team is really really dangerous. And again we can move off that here because we're gonna talk more about them in the picks segment. Let's go to the last game. Uh yo.

bucket that I would put Green Bay. Young quarterback you really like, you know, a lot of flexibility cap wise, very young defense and trying to build it out. You know, obviously I would love to put the Bears in there because of Kleb, but they haven't proven that at all, so I can't. I would say it. I love what Washington has put together. I also in this game, and you know you'll hear about it when you do our

picks in a minute. But this was the one game I struggled with demonse from a picks perspective, because I would be listen, I'd be shocked if Washington won the game. But Detroit's defense had been truly horrible to close the year. And when we look at it, they I mean, they allowed thirty one to the Packers, forty eight to the Bills, thirty four to the Niners. But then we saw them hold the Vikings and Sam Donald to nine points, and

we're like, Okay, they figured something out. But then we saw the Vikings and Sam Donald immediately get held to nine points again in the next game they played, and like, oh, maybe it was that Donald just pumpkin moded it. So I do think Washington is gonna be able to move the football. I also I said this, I think on Tuesday. I'll say it again. Three quarterbacks ever as a rookie have won road playoff games. Mark Sanchez who then also won on the road in round two and went to

the conference championship game. Joe Flacco, who then also won in round two and went to the conference championship game. Russell Wilson, who I'm gonna put that game is like a game that gets forgotten to history. Russell Wilson's second career playoff game. It was an old timer. So it was Seahawks Falcons in Atlanta halftime score twenty to zering Atlanta going into the fourth quarter, Demons Russell Wilson to rookies on the road going into the fourth quarter, twenty

seven to seven Atlanta. The Seahawks then score three consecutive touchdowns, including a Marshawn Lynch touchdown with thirty one seconds left, uh to take a twenty eight to twenty seven lead, and they can't hold it for those final thirty seconds. I'm checking that was there a kickoff out of bounds? What happened? So they take the lead twenty eight to twenty seven. It wasn't a kickoff out of bounds, but there's a kick return to the twenty eight, and so

there's twenty five seconds left. Atlanta has the ball down one on their own twenty eight. Matt Ryan to Harry Douglas for twenty two yards to get it to midfield. Then Matt Ryan to Tony Gonzalez. How about that for nineteen yards? Uh, and they're kicking a field goal. That's on believable. They got the ball twenty five seconds left, they kicked their field goal with thirteen seconds left. They're like, we don't even want to run anymore plays and Matt

Bryant bangs a forty nine yarder and they win. So point being only three rookie quarterbacks ever have won a road playoff game. Two of the three then won the next round, and the other one had a lead with thirty seconds left kicking off and they lost. So it would be an unbelievable story if Jaden can win. But everything seems to come up. The NFL and the AFC Championship weekend as long as the Chiefs win is sets up an all time game. Mahomes trying to reach his

third straight Super Bowl? What would be the sixth? Is that right?

Out of its Lions Rams, you get an all time storyline game, the Lions trying to reach their first Super Bowl ever with the best team they've ever had against their guy Matt Stafford, who they traded away to the Rams, and he instantly won a Super Bowl and could deny them their own trip. It'd be a pretty epic conference championship weekend. How do I see that going? And who do I have in the College Football National Championship? We do all that next What's Right? All right? Welcome back

in What's Right with Nick? Right before we get demon's a two our divisional weekend picks and another winning weekend for yours truly, and I got on your corner. He even gave out a great teaser. Let's do a little college football just for a moment, because the National Championship game is on Monday.

more confident about my Notre Dame gut feeling. Every gambler in America, and this has been uh vouched for by sportsbooks and places that report on these types of things, have a two team teaser going this weekend Demons or a two team moneyline parlay, and it is the Chiefs parlayed or teased with Ohio State and Winever. Ever, everyone has one of those going. It doesn't bode well for

one of the legs. And I'm here to tell you the Chiefs aren't losing to the Texans on Saturday, So that just leaves Ohio State and I just think Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame are gonna win. And I think that there is going to be I wonder if Ryan Day is gonna be able to ignore the devil on his shoulder saying falling into the same trap he fell into against Michigan, which is, Oh, they think they're the physical team. We're gonna show them who the physical team is.

Ohio State should lean into who they are, which is you've got three first round wide receivers, throw the ball. Notre Dame just wants to run the hell out of the ball and play good defense. I can't wait for it. I think again, it's not the greatest analysis in the world. Just have a gut feeling. I think Notre Dame wins. Great analysis has been my picks all year. Just another great weekend. Really, in my opinion, only one game I

was on the wrong side of. We can go over who it was last week in Demonse, another four and two week, Houston plus three against the Chargers went out right. Buffalo minus eight and a half against Denver, spot them seven, score thirty one straight. Tampa minus three against Washington. Again, I don't feel I was on the wrong side of that one. That was not only a coin flip game, a coin flip point spread game, because if Tampa would have punched it in on the drive win they screwed

up the snap, they would have been up four. So I feel fine about that. Pittsburgh plus nine and a half against Ball, the more bat wrong side of it a bad pick. Philly minus four and a half against green Bay. Philly didn't even play that well and easily covered. And the Rams plus one and a half against Minnesota. That thing was never a doubt from the word go.

It also did allow the teaser I gave America the Rams plus seven and a half and the Bills down to two and a half that came in, and I'll tell you right now, I I placed teasers that teaser this past weekend, and then Monday morning I placed another teaser involving the Rams. I teased the Rams up to plus seven and a half in that game, along with the Chiefs down to minus one and a half, and I give you another. So I half that's already in,

and I'll give you another one. I did. I teased the Chiefs down to minus one and a half and the bill this weekend up to plus seven and a half. So we got playoff teasers galore coming. And so one of them, one of them's in, one of them's halfway in. One of them hasn't kicked off yet either leg obviously, So there we go. Let's start with our picks this weekend. Well,

it's a playoff football, man, we gotta playoff football. Also, remember that screenshot I sent you up that bet I made on the Rams at seventy five to one I've got If we have a Chiefs Rams super Bowl, I am obviously I will be devastating if the Chiefs make the Super Bowl and lose. But if we have a Chiefs Ram Super Bowl, I will be locked into the single biggest gambling win of my life in either direction.

And so now, if we have a Lions Chiefs super Bowl and the Lions win, it will it might be the single biggest gambling loss.

did and let Houston pick him off four times. Patrick Mullos in this round in his career is six and oh, they score thirty two points a game. He has sixteen touchdowns, zero picks. They're historically blowouts, the one that well, that's not fair. Two of the six have not been blowouts.

But in the divisional round they have beaten the Colts by eighteen, the Texans by twenty, the Browns in a I guess you know what I Let me take that back, because I forgot that the Browns game was the divisional round. Obviously the thirteen seconds game was the divisional round. So they haven't all been blowouts. That's incorrect by me. Their first, but the first game of the playoffs. That's what I

was thinking. Four of the six times Mahomes been in the playoffs, that first game they played after the bye or after rest was a bl the two that what weren't he got dinged up in? I just I think Houston. This is around the Chiefs never lose in. And it's around the Texans literally have never won in. They've never played in the conference championship game.

That's the game you and I watched together, right, demanse was it the No, the Steelers game was on Christmas? No? No, No, the Houston game was You weren't You weren't in New York. Yet we watched Chiefs Raiders together over Thanksgiving and Chiefs Steelers together on Christmas. This was the Saturday before Christmas. But I like the Chiefs minus the eight and a half next and.

in big spots. Washington somewhat neutralizes the Lions fourth down edge that they have on thost teams because Washington goes forth on fourth down as aggressively and as much as any team in the league, and there obviously will be backdoor cover potential where even if Detroit is up fourteen points, Washington's gonna be fighting to the very end. I'd really, really would love if this thing could touch ten points, so you can you know if they're down seventeen, your

BET's not dead because of the back door cover. But I again, I do not have as much conviction in this game as I do in the other three. But we pick every game of the playoffs because I think Detroit's defense is a truly beleaguered unit. Right now, I will take Washington plus the points. But as you can hear, i'm my heart's I don't this is I don't have a great feel for it, and full disclosure to the audience,

this is a game I will not be better. So the deal I have with the audience during the regular season is we have a full slate of games. I pick my five favorite and I bet all five games. In the playoffs, I pick every single game, so I don't feel the obligation to bet every single game if I don't have a good feel for it. This is the hardest one for me, but I'll take Washington plus the points. Next.

the Rams money line at plus two thirty five. Yeah, I just I'm betting the Rams to win the game. So yes, I think the Rams are going to win the game. Now, the Eagles at home in the playoffs under Jalen Hurts just blow people out. They're three and zero against the spread, and they they, however the spread by an average of seventeen points per game. They have just been an absolute wagon at home in the playoffs with Jalen.

And now, lastly, demonte the game of the weekend.

other side is crazy to me, and so listen. I understand Lamar is an underdog or as a small small favorite is dominant twenty six and nine against spreading his career. I just I think the conditions favor Buffalo. The home field obviously favors Buffalo, the fact that they there is immense pressure on both of these guys. Obviously, Lamar's yet to have a great playoff run. Josh has lost in this round three straight years, and he's lost in this

round at home two straight years. I just think the Bills have been the second best team in football this year and the second most complete team in football this year. As far as Offen steve, it's not necessarily all the talent, and so I like Buffalo plus a point and a half. Demons, I assume that you are big on the Ravens here, Yeah, I.

what come on dude. But but yeah, I can't believe were you in when you was in second? I was one, I was one, I was one pick behind first. It was.

is rested. Went on, you know, did the podcast rounds this week made it sound like he does not plan to retire, which I love to hear. So Kelsey plus one fifty five anytime touchdown? I like that one a lot. And the producers have an offer for me, demonte so go ahead.

to score touched on the Super Bowl. The Chiefs obviously have to win this week and win next week, and then Kelsey has score touchdown. So what I would say would be the better way to make that bet be bet the Chiefs on the money line this week. Then take every single dollar that you bet on that and that you won, put it on the Chief's money line next week. Then take every single dollar that you put on that and that you won on Kelsey to score

a touchdown come the Super Bowl. My guess is those three things put together, you end up with like a plus six hundred ultimate you know, wager, so to speak. So I do like the idea of Kelsey scoring touchdown the Super Bowl. I don't like betting it right now at plus five fifty because I think you can do better. All right, quick break, answer some listener questions. Then I got to get out of here. What's right? All right, Demon's let's get right to it. Let's answer some listener questions.

my wife's store is here. I so, if not for the TV show, would I live here? I don't know. I certainly listen. If not for the TV show, I don't think I would spend winters here. I know I sound like an old man when I say that, but I if not for the the if when Deanna graduates high school, I think i'll I think i'd probably split time between Vegas and New York, is what I think I would do. Uh, And I think maybe I will do maybe LA and New York. But I'm not sure that's what DeMont no.

friend Sean o'harley. Shout out to her. She did a great job with that, all right.

I cannot wait for this weekend. Should be great. Also, by the way, we've had a pretty good run this week on the TV show. We had the singers on Monday. We had a bit with the water being thrown on my face on Tuesday. I'm not gonna spoil anything, but today be tuned in right at the top of the show, and then throughout the show we have one of the greatest I don't want to spoil anything. We have an

amazing surprise planned for the audience. So today you're a fan of the TV show, be watching right at the top of the show, I'll see you guys. Then I gotta run. What's right? Oh well, hey, thanks for watching. If you're still here, do me a favor. Hit the subscribe button, then hit the bell so you can be notified when we have new episodes. After you've done that, one more favor, go to your favorite audio platform of

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