Divisional Round Weekend: Nick's Picks

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We'd have to add a couple thousand a week. But if you enjoy this show, if you vibe with this show and you're not already subscribing, please do so. We get a sweet plaque. And Demons's getting ready to move to Los Angeles and I would really like to send the plaque with him. There's all to a financial incentive. Demonse's got this Twitch stream he's trying to build up. I think it'd be a pretty cool background thing now, one hundred thousand YouTube subscriber thing in the background there.

So if you are not already subscribing, and you would, that would be great. The other thing you could do if you are What's Right with Nick Wright and Demonse super fan, if such a thing exists, if you wanted to tweet out the link to our YouTube stream and tell your folks to subscribe, we'd greatly appreciate it. Again, we're about sixty five hundred short of one hundred thousand goal and once I get to one hundred thousand, by the way, I'm just I'm done with the show. I'm kidding.

I will keep the show going, but I would like to get to it. Okay, this is I don't know if you know this, Demanse. This is my favorite sports weekend of the year, the second round of the divisional round of the playoffs, because we have four games. No. Traditionally wild Card weekend was also four games, but and then they expanded it to when they added the seventh playoff teams. But you have four games. And the reason I like this more than Conference Championship weekend is Conference

championship weekend. Yes, you usually get the best teams, but historically one of those games is usually a blowout. There's only two games all day Saturday, you're just anticipating Sunday. This is if we were to have said, at various points throughout the season, who are the best teams in football? Of the eight teams remaining, six of them are left in one order or another. Almost all year long, the six best teams in football were Kansas City, Philly, Cincinnati, Buffalo,

San Francisco, and Dallas. None of them got upset this weekend. A few of them almost did, but none of them got upset. You then have the Jags, who have been one of the hottest teams the second half of the year, and then the Giants, who were one of the hottest teams at the beginning of the year with that six and one start that they had. So it's a great weekend. It's my favorite weekend of football. First, before we get to our picks for this weekend, we will recap last weekend.

It started amazingly. We started three and zero. We finished four and two, which is absolutely fine. It keeps us It's another profitable weekend. It means our last two weeks of giving out picks on this show, because we went eleven and three is fifteen and five. Wait, yeah, fifteen and five, so seventy five percent against the spread the last two weeks on this show. We'll go through each game. San Francisco minus nine and a half against Seattle.

and a half. That almost died before it had any chance to live, because not only were the Niners trailing at halftime, but when they scored twenty five straight in the second half, that put him up twenty four Seahawks scored, and if they kicked the extra point, the offers an auto winner. They did the smart thing, they went for two that could have made it a sixteen point game.

The Niners stop it. So the offer wins Demons's feel in some type of way about the offer because he puts in all these exotic parlays and does not take up the offer. And the offer has hit what four times this year about possibly more maybe for a number of times. But now we can get back to last week's pick. So the Niners minus nine and a half to me was the safest bet of the weekend. And the reason I feel comfortable saying that is because even

though they trailed at halftime, they still won easily. The Seahawks just couldn't match up with them, obviously, Jacksonville plus two and a half was not what we would call a safe bet. However, what is remarkable about it is even they had found a way thanks to the Trevor two point conversion, where getting those two and a half points absolutely could have been the reason we won. If they get stuffed on that fourth and one, they lose thirty to twenty eight, but the offer didn't come in.

But we still win because we're getting the two and a half points. Miami plus thirteen and a half didn't look safe early, and then it looked like a Miami money line was absolutely in play and honestly should have been in play. Miami had an amazing comeback. They took the lead, and then even after they relinquished the lead, even after they were down ten after taking the lead, they then fought back and had a great chance at what should have been at least a game tying field goal,

but they butchered the very end of that game. But the plus thirteen and a half is good. Minnesota minus three we were on the wrong side of that one no way around it. Even though we were on the wrong side of that one. If Kirk Cousins could have picked up that third and eight or fourth and eight and they end up going to overtime, I feel like we would have been in decent shape. But that Minnesota

defense was awful. Baltimore plus eight and a half was another one that we said we thought they could win out right with Tyler Huntley, they should have won that game. The Cincinnati their turnover luck in these playoffs the last two years has been historic. Joe Burrow has played five playoff games. The Bengals defens has forced eleven turnovers in those five playoff games. Wow, and the fumble six that Huntley. You know, Trevor, It's funny. Trevor said he the play

was not for him to leap. He did that on his own. They had a different play called he saw it was open, he went and did it. It worked. He's a hero. The play for Huntley was not for him to leap. He went and did it. He saw it. He was wrong. He's a goat the difference. One of the differences that I would point out is the risk of that leap is exactly what happened to Huntley, ball gets knocked out of your hands and the team goes the other way.

If they go for it and don't get it and they get stuffed, I don't think Cincinnati moves the ball at all, and all of a sudden, you're punting probably back to Baltimore down or a tie game. And Justin Tucker's a huge weapon. Even with the fumble. If they call the block in the back that happened at the thirty yard line on the return, now Cincinnati has the ball on the forty and Baltimore's even playing so good. It was just that was the exact way for Baltimore

to lose that game, and they lost the game. Also, while Huntley, they had first and goal from the four, they handed the ball to running backs one time they threw the ball to a full back on first down, it was a bad pass. They handed the ball to running back on second hand, got it to the one,

got three yards, and then the quarterback sneak. I feel like that Greg Roman's got to go back and say, man, we were playing Baltimore Ravens football, first and goal from the four hand that ball off four times, Hand the ball off to JK. Dobbins four times, and see what we can do. And then obviously the one we were the furthest off on it, and the one game we have not yet talked about on this show, Tampa and Dallas. Dallas annihilated the Bucks. It has absolutely stripped any fear

I think anyone should have of Tampa away. I think that or Brady, I should say, Tampa's obviously done. Brady's leaving there in a terrible cap situation. But a lot of us thought that Brady all year all year long, when Brady felt a pass rush, he would throw and duck. He would throw and duck so we wouldn't get hit. I think a lot of us, I know I did, assumed because he's old, he was preserving his body for

the playoffs. And then once the playoffs came, he would take the punishment, take the hits, and stand in the pot. And while that game turned into a laugher Demonsey. They were down six to nothing with the ball inside the five and Brady turned and ducked at a pass rush and that's why he didn't get enough on it to get the ball out of the back of the end zone and threw a pick. And that is what kind of opened the floodgates. So if there are Brady's gonna

play next year, I no longer fear him. If he were on San Francisco, he could win a Super Bowl because they're showing they can win with any quarterback. But if he goes to Miami, they're not good enough. If he goes to the Raiders, they're not good enough. If he goes to the Jets, they're not good enough. And you feel like I kind of insulted brock Purty there. Okay, we'll talk him in a moment. We'll also talk Cowboys

in a moment. That's last week. Now we get to our picks from this week, and we will do them in the order that the games are. We are starting with the Kansas City Chiefs minus eight and a half at home against Jacksonville. We liked the Chiefs, and we like the Chiefs significantly in this football game. This is where it is instructive to remind the audience what the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have done in

their first playoff games of each season. So in the first playoff game Mahomes ever played against the Indianapolis Colts, they won by eighteen points. In the first playoff game Mahomes played in the following year at home against the Texans, they were down twenty four to nothing in the second quarter. They led the game at halftime. They were down twenty four to nothing in the second quarter. They led the game at halftime, and they won fifty one to thirty one.

So down twenty four to nothing, they still covered. The next year they're playing the Browns. They are crushing the Browns. At halftime, Mahomes got hurt, had to leave the game. They won by five, so they didn't cover there. But that's a little bit of a question mark there. And that was the game where they thought Mahomes got a concussion. He actually got choked, so they wouldn't let him go back in the game. He did the get up and stumble and fall, so they they blacked him out from

the game. I actually talked to him right after the game. He said, passed all my concussion tests. If you watch the video. I never even got hit in the head. But when the guy tackled him, the guy's forearm went up against his neck and it just like breathing. Yeah, caught off either blood flow or air to his brain, and so it like he feinted, but it wasn't a head injury. But they wouldn't let him go back in,

so they didn't tackle. Yeah, it was crazy. That's also one of the reasons why I believed the two because even though it wasn't that type of play, just because something looks like a concussion doesn't mean it is a concussion, all right. And then last year, first game of the playoffs against the Steelers, they went by twenty one and it wasn't even that close. Andy Reid and last year was not off a buye. It should be noted, but Andy Reid off a bye against an inferior opponent, typically

from the AFC South. Oddly enough, the Chiefs put it on. Additionally, we saw this game earlier this year. The Chiefs won by ten in a way no team has won a game in the NFL all year so prior to Jaggs Chargers where the Jacks from the ball over five times, Chargers zero and one, there had been thirty seven games in the NFL this year where a team won the turnover margin by three or more. Those teams were thirty

six and one. One loss was Jaggs Chiefs when the Chiefs turned the ball over three times and put it on the Jaguars. Furthermore, it's not just they turn the ball over three times. The Jags started the game with a surprise on side kick and got it, so they essentially won the turnover battle for nothing. And despite that, that game was twenty to nothing and twenty seven to ten at various times, the Jags added a garbage time touchdown to make it twenty seven to seventeen. It was

never in question. Now I'm gonna go a little a step further that JAG's pass defense can get god as we saw in the first half yes or this past weekend. Also, the Chiefs, in a stat no one believes, but I promise it is true, had the second most sacks of any team in the NFL this year, only the Eagles had more Chris Jones against the middle of that Jacksonville defensive line will be a problem for them. Mahomes will be sensational. Mahomes already the all time record for three

touchdown playoff games is eleven. I believe by Brady He's played almost fifty playoff games. Then someone has nine, someone has eight. Mahomes has seven, It's fourth most. Ever. He's only played eleven playoff games, so in seven of his eleven he's gone for three touchdowns. The Chiefs are at home. They are right now, the healthiest they have been all year. And one other thing the Chiefs did this year that

I think was very smart. I think they knew from the very beginning of the season that Jeric McKinnon number one for them. They're running back who started the year third stringth was their best back. However, I think they also know he's a guy whose whole career has been defined by injury. So they slowly and they upped his usage right before the stretch run for the playoffs. He won AFC Offensive Player of the Month with nine touchdown catches. I think the Chiefs annihilate the Jags. I've been high

on the Jags. I told you guys five weeks ago the Jags were not going to lose again until the divisional round in Kansas City. The bracket had not even been set yet. I was very confident that the divisional round in Kansas City would be Jags coming to KC. I've got Kansas City minus eight and a half. Go ahead to monse.

games won by double digits. Covered the spread all three times. So he's four and one. I'm going to throw out the Browns game that I mentioned because he got hurt. He did he was in root to covering. He got knocked out of the game against the Bills. AFC Championship game, covered the spread one by fourteaens now five and one Super Bowl against the Bucks obviously did not cover. Okay, against the very next year against the Steelers, covered the spread.

So six and two against the Bills, covered the spread in overtime. Okay, seven and two against the Bengals obviously did not cover. They lost as another game they're up twenty one to three and the Mahomes melted down. So he's seven and three in the playoffs against the spread with the one seven and four technically, but one of those games he got knocked out. I trust the Chiefs, I trust Mahomes. I have not bet on the Chiefs

a lot this year. Bet on the Jags far more often, but I like the Chiefs minus eight and a half next one. This to me was the hardest game to pick. I'm telling you right now, I will bet all of these. These are my four picks. This is the one that I have the least confidence. Giants plus seven and a half at Philly. Ultimately, I just took the points. I have been of the belief that Philly is not as good as the record suggests. Lane Johnson's gonna try to

come back. I don't know how full strength he's going to be, and Jalen Hurts is obviously not one hundred percent. However, the Giants, there is a version of this game where Daniel Jones gets sacked seven times where he fumbles like he used to, and the Eagles with their pass rush alone dominate this football game. However, Dable is an excellent coach. We saw the Giants backups recently play Philly in the final week of the season and only lose by six,

and it's a little misleading. They were down by more than that, but they came back a bit. I again, I don't have a super strong feeling on this game. But if I don't have a super strong feeling, and I'm getting more than a touchdown, and it's one of us scenario where they could be down fourteen and I'm still alive. All go ahead and grab the seven and a half points. But I don't feel great about it.

first round. Every single game was this round. Every game is except for San Francisco Dallas, and that's a rematch of last year's wildcard round. It's kind of an oddity that's happened this year. I'll take the Giants plus the points, but I don't trust Daniel Jones. I don't trust the Giants as a whole, and that Philly defens is awesome, but I'll begrudgingly grab the seven and a half points. All right, we will take a very quick break. We

will come back. We will come with my second favorite bet of the weekend, and then we'll also do San Francisco Dallas. We have Cincy Buffalo and San Francisco Dallas would do those next. We'lls right.

but it was very early. Cincinnati did appear to be in good shape in that game. They had driven down and scored, they had been stopped. The Bills home to a field goal and drove in. Now since then, in that game, Cincinnati didn't have Alile Collins. They they might have also not had Alex Kappa, but they don't have Alex Kappa now the right so they don't have the right tackle with the right guard, and their left tackle Joanah Williams dislocated his kneecap, so that's three fifths of

their offensive line. However, Joe Burrows used to not having a great offensive line. Additionally, the Bills shockingly have not been the same team since von Miller went now defensively, in particular from getting a pressure from the perspective of getting pressure. Pardon me, sorry for the Coffs guys, the Bills. A massive part of the reason the Bills were gonna be different this year was the von Miller edition. People have just kind of memory. Hold that what you know,

what that defense looked like pre and post von Miller's injury. Also, Skyler Thompson, I know his numbers were terrible. We watched that game. There were openings in that Bill secondary, a lot of drops, and Skyler actually played better than the numbers suggest. Joe Burrow ain't no Skyler Thompson. Let's go a little further. The Bills played the Dolphins tail end of the year three point game. The Lions was a three point game, the Browns was just and the Jets

were just eight point games. Now they blew out the Bears and I give them credit for that, and they beat the Patriots by twelve. They did not look great in Round one. I do not think their past defense is going to be able to hold up against Burrow. The Bengals are getting five and a half points. I think the Bengals win this game outright. I think we get a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game in Arrowhead. I think the whole neutral site thing is not going

to come into play. I think that the difference for the Bengals, and going from the Ravens defense, which might have been the best in the league once they got Rokwan Smith to a Bills defense that Mac Jones moved the ball on, Skyler Thompson moved the ball on. We have seen teams move the ball on. Is going to be dramatic. I like Cincinnati to cover. This feels like a field goal game in either direction, but I also like them to win. And I don't think Josh Allen's

going to play a clean game. I think that Josh Allen fumbled the ball three times and through two interceptions in a game where they were up seventy nothing and he didn't have to take chances. But he can't help himself. So I like Cincinnati plus the points, go ahead.

consecutive seasons and beat Mahomes. If people want to go on television and say Burrows the best quarterback in football all disagree with it, but they'll have an argument, So there's more pressure on the Chiefs if the Bengals win. Moril's story, I like Cincinnati plus five and a half. I also like them to win out right, all right, Let's get to the last game of the weekend Niners Cowboys San Francisco minus three and a half against Dallas.

Bill Simmons says, and he's right, beware of the team that looked a little too good the previous week Dallas.

this throughout the year at various times. I would feel better betting this game if it was San Francisco minus six, it was San Francisco minus four and a half and the money on Dallas drove it down to three and a half. So somebody thinks Dallas, or a lot of somebody's think Dallas. They have the better quarterback. They're coming off this great game. I think San Francisco has been the best team in the league this year. I think San Francisco has been better than Kansas City this year.

I think San Francisco with Christian McCaffrey, has looked utterly and thoroughly dominant. I think that pass rush will get to Dak. I think San Francisco will keep the Cowboys pass rush off balance by running the football as well as they do. And the cheat gode for San Francisco is this when they have Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Huschek, George Kittle, Deebo, Samuel Brandon Ayu, those five guys on the field, plus the quarterback and the five offensive line, and there's your eleven.

So you know how, Demonta, you'll like this. You know how in Madden you finally started winning once. I and I'm gonna say this to be rude, explain to you the importance the defensive formations, Like, hey, if they've got four wide you can't be in your base defense else you have linebackers on. And when you're playing you like to run the ball when somebody's got uh. When somebody's playing in dime with six corners out there and there's all these little people, you can just run right at them.

With big people. Here's why the Niners are so devastating. They put those five guys out there, and if you go, okay, they've got a full back and use check, a running back, a tight end, and then just two receivers. We can play base defense well. Christian McCaffrey's basically a running back or a wide receiver. Used Check's the best pass catching full back in football. Kittle's the second best pass catching

tight end football. If you go big with those same five guys, they can go five wide, spread you out, and now you have a linebacker on Christian McCaffrey or Kittle or both. If you say, all right, we're not letting that happen. We're putting our small people out there, they can go I formation with Deebo, who's a great

runner in blocker. Ayuka is a great runner and blocker, full back Christian McCaffery and Kittle, so they can keep those same guys out there, let your whatever defensive personnel you put out there dictate whether or not you're going what they're gonna run. They are devastating to deal with. Shanahan's brilliant. I like Shanahan in this spot. It's also

an interesting one. Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator. Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl when they were up twenty eight to three on Tom Brady and they blew it. I like that kind of I like that little nuanced matchup. The only reason San Francisco loses is if rock Perty turns into a pumpkin. You like Purty. I don't even think if he's gonna turn into a pumpkin. It's not gonna be a home game against Dallas. Maybe the following week

against Philly if that were to happen. If Philly gets there, I like San Francisco minus three and a half go ahead.

and San Francisco minus three and a half. Wrapped the show with an offer next, what's right? I don't even make single game parlays. Typically. It was not just like random clicking a buttons. It was the exact game script. I thought, forty to one because Chelsea don't at the end, where is there? Yo?

they're already at five and a half. So there's not like enough value there to make that a full blown gotta tease. Some people will be teasing the Eagles down the Chiefs, and Eagles will be a very popular teaser, getting the Chiefs from eight and a half down to less than three, the Eagles seven and a half down to less than two. But I think the Giants have a puncher chance in that game, so I'm not teasing that.

But that same game, Parlay was an intriguing one. It's pretty great, And I am going to go back to the well to a degree. So I like Trevor Lawrence over two hundred and fifty and a half receiving or passing yards, and I like Travis et ten over eighteen and a half receiving yards. I am going to include in there if I can find it, Travis Kelcey over eighty one and a half receiving yards. The guy is the all time leader in playoff receiving yards per game,

anytime touchdown score, we're going to put Kelsey. We are going to put where is he Cadarius Tony as in anytime touchdown scorer? And we are going to put Pachecko or McKinnon. McKinnon has been the guy. But I think they let Pachecko get one. Pachecko as in any time touchdown score. If I take that off, where.

If I add now, adding the Chiefs minus the eight and a half only makes it one hundred and twenty six to one. It doesn't double it. Adding the Chiefs on the money, you know what we're gonna throw in the Chiefs on the money line to make it eighty eight to one, because I just gave you a scenario where the Chiefs are scoring three touchdowns for it to hit anyway those again at least those three touchdowns. So

there it is. Division a round gambling show. Chiefs minus eight and a half, Niners minus three and a half, Bengals plus five and a half, Giants plus seven and a half. We'll see you Monday as we preview a Chiefs Bengals a FC championship game, and a Niners versus somebody NFC championship game. We'll do that Monday. Talk to you then. What's right