Conference Championship Weekend: Nick's Picks

Two and two is nothing to right home about. But there's only four games we and well, let's just go through them right now before we get to this Weekends Picks, which you guys, if you've been listening to this show throughout the year, you probably know this Weekends Picks. So our playoff records now six and four, Our season record fifty six fifty two in two, which does not sound great. But if you know what we were looking like around week fifteen, you know what a heater were on Cincinnati

plus five and a half at Buffalo. We told you they'd win outright, We told you they were the better team that was proven out San Francisco minus three and a half against Dallas. That game, as we discussed on Monday, went about as hilariously as everyone could predict it would. Giants plus seven and a half at Philly was flatly the wrong side of that bet. But if you remember last Friday's show, I said that was the game I felt the least confident. That was the game that I

was just like a divisional game. I'll grab the points. We weren't sure how healthy Jalen was going to be, but there was a chance the game was going to go exactly the way it did, which is it gets out of hand early and Philly rolls all over them. And then there's Kansas City minus eight and a half against Jacksonville. Now that did not cover, but that is flatley and clearly was the right side of the bet because in order for that to not cover by a

point and a half. You needed Mahomes to get hurt, Mahomes to when he came back in be incredibly hampered due to injury, and then the Chiefs to fail to pick up consecutive third and ones that would have allowed them to essentially salt the game away. Even though all of that happened, it was still Chiefs winning by ten with less than a minute remaining. Then the Jags, to their credit, did do the smart thing, kick the field goals so you can then attempt the on side and

the hail mary. They got the field goal, they didn't get the on side and the hail mary. So we feel fine about how we did last week, but not nearly as great as how we could feel about this week if we end up nailing these two games. Because well, Demonse, I'll welcome you in now and I'll let you discuss what has been the underlying story of this entire gambling season, our preseason super Bowl bet. Go right ahead.

nothing in their playoff game. But I thought the Raiders were not going to be very good, and I the Broncos were hilariously overvalued. Additionally, what I did get wrong was I thought the Bengals were gonna take a bit of a step back. Now it looked like that was correct. At the beginning of the season, I had the Bengals making the playoffs, making it as a wild card team. The Bengals have been obviously one of the hottest teams in the league ever since the opening month of the season.

But the other part of it was there was real value on the Chiefs because everyone was anointing the Buffalo Bills, and so the Chiefs were not the overwhelming favorites within their division. They weren't the favorites at all. They were the favorites in their division, were not overwhelming as they had been in years past. You could get plus money on them to win their division, meaning they were the

favorites for the AFC West. But Chiefs versus the field, they were an underdog according to the money on it. And then there was the Bills that were treated like this unstoppable juggernaut that I just simply did not buy into so for all of those reasons, plus the fact I thought the U market was slightly overstating the impact of Tyreek Hill being gone. And I knew now, to be fair, I didn't pick the Chiefs to be the

one seed. I thought they were gonna have to play a road playoff game or two for the first time in the Mahomes era. But I knew what they're playing was on defense, in playing all these young players, half dozen rookies getting significant snaps, and the idea then would be by the end of the year, by games fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, those rookies are no longer really rookies, and the defense could be peaking at just the right time, and I

knew Mahomes would be fine. And to be honest, that is exactly what happened. The Bills were frauds. The AFC West was not the greatest division ever, and the Chiefs defense now sits here today in the NFL in sacks the most pressures of any team in the league outside of Dallas, and the most quarterback hits of any team in the league outside of Dallas. With these young players coming into their own and the Chiefs offense led the league in points and led the league in yards. So

that was the chief side of the bet. Then there's the Niners side of the bet. The Niners bet was essentially a twofold bet. The first one was I looked around the NFC and I did not believe in the Eagles the way everyone else seemed. They were the trendy team. We talked about it. People are talking about that they could be the one seed, and I said, listen. I reluctantly picked them to win their division, but I did

not think they would be a fourteen and three team. Well, they were a fourteen and three team and could have been better than that, if we're being totally honest, they were what thirteen and one? And then Jalen got hurt. So I missed on the Eagles, but the rest of it. What was our favorite preseason win total? Bucks under eleven and a half. I didn't look at the Bucks as a real contender. The Packers, to me, missed their window. I didn't look at the Packers as a real contender.

The Rams we knew that. We didn't know Stafford was gonna get hurt, but he did go into the year with an elbow injury. We knew they'd miss von Miller, we knew they'd miss Odell. So the Rams to me, were not a dynamite contender. So now we're really only down to a handful of teams as far as who could win the NFC and the Niners. It wasn't that I thought Trey Lance was going to instantly come in and be better than Jimmy Garoppolo. But Jimmy Garoppolo statistically

is one of the worst playoff quarterbacks ever. He has played six career playoff games. He has four touchdowns, he has six interceptions. He has a passer rating of seventy four. He is the worst postseason fourth quarter fourth quarter quarterback ever, a passer rating of less than twenty in his career in the postseason in the fourth quarter. And so my logic there was the Niners by the end of the season are going to have better quarterback play than they'd

had at any point during the Jimmy Garoppolo era. Now that ended up being true, But it wasn't because of Trey Lance. It was because of Brock Purty. But Mike Kyle Shanahan has coached eight playoff games with the Niners. The two best quarterbacking performances that he's gotten have been the two Brock Party games. So I loved the Niners defense. Loved Damiko Ryans. We said it on the show before

the year, now he's the new head coaching candidate. Loved their skill position guys, and I thought Trey Lance was going to add a dynamic to the offense as far as quarterback run game that Shanahan's offense would be just utterly devastating with. Now that never came to fruition. The guy played five quarter and broke his leg. But and then Jimmy G came in, and once they traded for McCaffrey after the Chiefs game, they were rolling. And then I think the best thing that could happen to him

was Jimmy G goes out. And I don't think Perty's great. I don't even know if Perty's good, but Perty is not a terrible playoff quarterback. The way Jimmy G has been, the NFC is wide open. Now what did I say when I was explaining this whole thing. My two big misses were underrating the Eagles and underrating the Bengals. I had them both making the playoffs. I had neither of them as actual Super Bowl contenders. Either one of those teams could of course ruin my fifty to one bet, but and the.

San Francisco is getting two and a half points at Philadelphia. Unlike the Chiefs line, which has moved all over the place, this line has been quite static. Demonte go ahead.

thirteen to ten, seventeen fourteen. They were trying to win purely on their the strength of their defense. So, yes, the rookie quarterbacks, it would have been nice if they could make plays, but those guys really hadn't been making plays all year. And those were defensive oriented teams. Nin have the best defense in football, and since they got Christian McCaffrey and hell forget that, since Rock Purty took

over one of the highest scoring offenses in football. They didn't show that against Dallas, and Dallas has a very good defense similar to Phillies, by the way, but they did certainly did show it against Seattle. Now, what is concerning is Rock party on the road in the playoffs for the very first time. That is concerning. But I'm gonna tell you what I didn't like from Philadelphia this weekend. Now, they played great, and Jalen was excellent, and the defense

was excellent. There's not many, you know, holes to poke in their performance at the end of the first quarter, you're beating up the Giants, who the Giants were not a good team this year. Congrats to them from making the division round. But that's not a great team. But like skycam showed Nick Sirianni and he looked straight into the camera and did this whole like an mean no, no, no. That was different that actually in mind when he ran down to the pylon and yelled at the ref and

he said, I'm allowed to be down here. I know what the believe I'm doing. This was him looking into the camera and doing one of these like like, yeah, where are those guys? And I felt, hmm, maybe maybe believe in the hype a little too much for a team that didn't finish the year great and now in their first playoff game, played a team that was, by any advanced metric, by anything, one of the very worst teams to make the postseason by record, by eye test,

by advanced metrics. You didn't have a Niners team that I feel like has had members of this coaching staff working on this exact matchup for probably six weeks. The Niners, who knew they were winning that division for a long time, and who knew this was going to be the team they had to get through. Now you can say the same thing about Philadelphia that they have been working on

the Niners. But I would argue harder to game plan for the Niners because of their positional versatility, because there's less film on Party available, and because of the Shanahan offense. I think the Niners can win not I think I know the Niners can win a low scoring game or a high scoring game. I don't know that. I believe that Philadelphia can shut down the Niners off correct. And now the road part of it is concerning, and they're listen, Brock Party is likely turning into a pumpkin at some

point in the next few weeks. Is he gonna be on the road in Philadelphia, one of the most hostile environments in the league. Maybe, But I also think Shanahan's going to try to coach around having to put rock Party in those spots. Also, let me be honest here, not just because of the bet on the San Francisco side, but I am pretty pot committed to not fully believing in Philadelphia, so I might as well keep that going.

I'd love getting three here, getting two and a half is something I'm going to be betting than well, I'm gonna be essentially betting the Niners on the money line. Just to begin with, I'll take the Niners plus two and a half.

because of Kittle, they have a very explosive offense. And we talked last week about how they can put McCaffrey, used Check Kittle, Ayuk, and Deebo on the field and you don't know what formation they're going to be in. They can be in five wide, they can be in two tight end, they can be into running back, and it is very, very difficult to match up with them. Also, I know Lane Johnson's back, and he came back from

that injury and he looked good against the Giants. I wonder how that groin injury is gonna play with Nicky Bosa screaming around the edge on. So for all those reasons, I like San Francisco next game. Pray for brook next game. Demase.

two and a half. So it went from Kansas City minus two and a half at the instant open to Kancity minus one and a half very quickly thereafter, then through the zero all the way to Cincinnati. Minus two and a half. It has now since my homes practiced, it has now moved to Kansas City plus one and a half to plus one, And it looks like it's going to end up being a pick them if not. Chiefs favored by a point by kickoff. But we'll see you, but go ahead.

of it. In their six postseason games. Do you know how many offensive touchdowns they have?

ever against the Las Vegas Raiders. They had a ten point lead going into the fourth quarter, They added a field goal, and they escaped with a seven point win after Derek Carr refused to throw the ball into the end zone. They scored three fourth quarter points in that game. Against the the Tennessee Titans. It was tied going into

the fourth quarter. They scored zero points that entire fourth quarter until with twenty seconds left, Ryan Tannehill threw one of the worst picks you've ever seen right around midfield and they ended up kicking a field goal at the gun. So that is now six fourth quarter points. Against the Chiefs, it was tied going into the fourth quarter. They kicked one field goal in the fourth quarter, and then of course obviously kicked a field goal in overtime, but that

is now nine fourth quarter points against the Rams. They had a twenty to sixteen lead going into the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl and scored zero points against the Ravens. That game going into the fourth quarter was tied seventeen to seventeen. Tyler Huntley fumbled Sam Hubbard returned it and that was their only points of the fourth quarter. And against the Buffalo Bills, they were up twenty four to ten going into the fourth quarter, added a field

goal and that was it. So they have been excellent defensively during this playoff run. The turnover stuff is historic. I think it's now thirteen to three the turnovers, or it's thirteen to three or fourteen to three or twelve to three, something like that. Fourced turnovers to turnovers given up. And the defense. The defense has been unbelievable and Burrow has been clutch on third and longs, particularly early in the games. However, with all that said, they have never

scored twenty eight points in a playoff game. They have never scored a fourth quarter offensive touchdown. They are averaging as a team two points aside from the Hubbard player. As an offense, I should say two points per fourth quarter. So the Bengals unstoppable offense not exactly true. Now we talk about this. The story going into the Bills game was man down three offensive line, Bills couldn't take advantage

of it. What did I tell you earlier about the Chiefs second league in sacks and pressures and quarterback hits? The single best interior defensive linemen in football since Aaron Donald had down yere plays for the Chiefs in Chris Jones. Now it's a weird Chris Jones a zero playoff sacks in his career. Why is that? Well, because he's always getting double teamed, which is why Frank Clark has the fourth most playoff sacks in NFL history. Coming around the edge.

I think the Chiefs are gonna be able to take advantage of that offensive line. I think the Chiefs we forget that. The Bengals did not look like they were in the Chiefs class in the AFC Championship game last year before Mahomes made that mistake at halftime and then kind of short circuited the rest of the way. What the only truly bad playoff performance of his career. The first time these two teams met, the Chiefs had a fourth quarter lead and were driving to essentially I think

salt the gameway. And of all people, Travis Kelsey fumbles the football and the Bengals end up winning the game holding on. Then after they score their touchdown, Andy Reid makes a bad decision I feel like taking the ball out of Mahomes's hands kicking a field goal. They missed the field goal. Bengals salt the game away. The Chiefs are better than them. Mahomes as great as Burrow is.

Mahomes is better than Burrow. It is at arrowhead. And if you believe, as I think most people do at this point, that Mahomes has a real chance to be not one of the greatest players ever, but as a

real chance to be the greatest player ever. This is the type of game and the type of moment that the greatest players ever add to their legend, not at one hundred percent a chance for redemption against the team that knocked you out last year and prevented you from going to three straight Super Bowls at you know, on an injured ankle goes out there in deals, So I listen, We're gonna do exotics later. The Chiefs minus six and a half might be on a card.

Bobby Knavalli. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.

Super Bowl. However, this is one of the many reasons you don't head. I don't hedge because I'm a gambler. But one of the many things people do wrong is think they're hedging and they're not. None of those are effective hedges, guys, So let's just paint this sati. Okay, what if the Eagles win and the Chiefs win and Mahomes wins the Super Bowl. Now I've lost my fifty to one bet and I've lost this dumb bet you guys made me do that. Those are not effective hedges.

I'm not public defending your guys lunacy on not understanding the way if I wanted to hedge out of my bet, It's very very simple. I put a few thousand dollars on the Philadelphia Eagles money line and then if they if then, if they win, my bet is dead and I win that few thousand dollars. If they lose, I then put ten thousand dollars on the Bengals money line.

If they win, my bet is dead and I've now won, you know, the seven eight grand And if they lose, now instead of winning fifty, I've won like thirty eight because I lost a couple thousand on the first hedge and the ten thousand and second edge. That's the way you would hedge if you wanted to, not by placing exotics where you might live. Who's both next?

one of those things is gonna happen. So I would pass on that, and I would fade if I had to the Eagles team total under because I think that Eagles Niners game might be high scoring. I don't love that one, but that's where I would be on it.

are calling arrowhead burrowhead. Joe Mixon's talking all that trash. Eli Apple's talking all that trash. And the Chiefs have the greatest player in the history of the sport at home and he's never lost. He has lost three playoff games ever won with five backup offensive linemen to the Bucks in the Super Bowl and two AFC Championship games in overtime.

I'm just fasting on it. And I am gonna fade the non quarterback throw a pass because this does the Chiefs that never have non quarterbacks throw passes never uh. And the other teams are gonna ride with their quarterbacks, and the Niners Deebo and Ayuk would be the guys and they don't throw passes. These aren't the teams to do it in the Super Bowl. That's a fun bet to make. All right, I've got a single game parlay for you. We'll do that as we wrap up the

Gambling Show. Next, What's record? Welcome back in episode one twenty three Conference Championship WEEKND Gambling Show. All right, here's the deal. As we are recording this show on Thursday, as predicted, the line has moved, so we've put in the Chiefs plus one. We did it though, you know, in the A bloc all of that. Right now, our friends at Fox Bet have the Chiefs at minus one. I said that I thought by the time people heard

this it would be a pick them. I don't think they want this game to land on a pick them. I think they want it to land on my so it might fluctuate a bit, but money coming back in on the Chiefs. Here are the bets that I I'll be honest with you guys, I don't know what I'm putting in because I'm so pot committed on the fifty to one. But let's say the Eagles lose. I'm sorry, the Eagles

win and the fifty to one is dead. I will be putting in Kansas City minus six and a half at plus two hundred and Kansas City minus nine and a half at U plus two ninety. I am putting those. I will be putting those in. And I am also going to strongly recommend the following. Okay, pa Checko over fifty and a half rushing yards, Mahomes over two hundred and eighty two and a half UH passing yards. I'm trying to build this UH player to score anytime. Where's anytime? Touchdown?

all right, here's what we're putting in. Pachecko over fifty and a half, Mahomes over too eighty two and a half, McKinnon to score a touchdown, Cadarius Tony to score a touchdown, and the Chiefs minus two and a half. It's thirty four to one. That is our single game parlay for this Chiefs game. We are not putting one in for the Niners Eagles game. And then Demons, I know you've got one final offer for me, my friend, Yes, last chance.

so much trash talking for the next year. There's nothing I could do about it until the Chiefs play the Bengals again in the playoffs. Who knows when that would happen. All the it'd all take from people with the TV show, all of it go. I'm gonna be a mess Sunday. Luckily, I think the Chiefs are gonna handle their business quite well. Kansas City is gonna win, the Niners are gonna win, and that Niners Chiefs Super Bowl EXACTA is going to be an all time wager that we're speaking into existence.

That's what's gonna happen.