Best Of - Nick Wright's NFL Week 1 picks, predicting Chiefs' Super Bowl opponent, Belichick debut

that we are making. Okay, we are betting the overs for the following teams with the following Juice Jags over seven and a half minus one twenty five. I think the Jags are going to make the playoffs. I think Trevor is going to have a bounce back year. I also think he knows this is kind of a make or break year for him. He luckily already got paid, but as far as him being concerned, are like a no doubt franchise quarterback. They've got to be good. I think they will be, and they only have to win

eight games. The Bears over eight and a half at plus one point fifteen. I like everything about the team. I love the coach at least this. I love their offensive coordinator who's also their head coach. I can't yet say if I know Ben Johnson will be good at the head coaching stuff. I know he's good at the play calling stuff. I don't mind the tough love on Caleb. So they'ren over. I have Kansas City. You just bet the Chiefs over every single year. I mean it's since

Andy's been there pri Ma Homes. It has failed to hit one time, and they if they only win, if they go twelve and five, people would consider that a bit of a disappointment and it would hit their over. Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these. I think the Bucks have a real shot to be the one seed in the NFC, and I think that they are going to win at least eleven games, maybe twelve or thirteen. That's minus one twenty. The Raiders over six and a half at minus one

forty five. They're the team everyone thinks it's going to be bad that I think it's going to be good. And Atlanta over seven and a half at minus one forty Again, they won eight games last year with Cousins falling apart, and I think you know year or two of Raheem Morris with the defense. Those are my overs demons. Of those six, what is your favorite and what is your least favorite of my six overs?

the unders. I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft. I think that is absolutely on the board. The Broncos under nine and a half at plus one ten. I I think the Broncos are going to get out to a decent start, people are going to be crowing. I think the final two months of the season are going to be brutal for them.

I also think people have overestimated what they're going to get from bo Nicks this year, and they're two major Their two major defensive editions are such injury risks of me that I don't think. I don't know that they're going to get the boost from them that people expect under ten and a half weeks. Oh, if they get off to a good start, Yeah, sure, absolutely, Yeah, that's on the board. Cowboys under eight and a half minus one forty five. I did this before the Parsons trade.

I assume you know, odds have shifted on this, but we've made these bets already. Vikings under nine and a half minus one twenty five. I just think it's a lot to ask in that division for de facto rookie quarterback. And I just think the Niners win totals wrong. I think the Niners are looked at miners in the schedule soft as like a Tier two Super Bowl contender. I

don't look at them that way. I think that they are, you know, a seven to eight win team, so I will take under ten and a half for the Niners. My favorite there is, as I mentioned, the Colts demands your your favorite, your least.

got it in time. The Vikings plus one hundred two units on that one, and the Cardinals minus one forty and then a miss playoffs parlay. I did a few of these last year. That screwed me. I'm only doing one. Four teams that I think are likely to finish in dead last in their division, Saints, Jets, Brown's, Colts all to miss the playoffs minus one thirty five to two units. I am acutely aware, demons that the Colts have a chance to be the Jags for me this year or

two years ago. You remember, two years ago, I would have had a hugely profitable preseason, you know, gambling shows. But I had the Jags involved in four separate bets. I lost them all, and because the Jags weren't as good as I thought the Colts if the Cults are really good, I lose this. I lose to miss the playoffs bet and I lose. They're under Luckily, Daniel Jones is greatly involved, so I'm not worried about that.

we are only doing three division winner bets. And I can't believe the first two of these demands are only minus one fifteen. Tell the audience the first one.

annual tradition Super Bowl EXACTA. Three years ago we had Chiefs Niners, and the Niners found themselves in the conference championship game. Last two years ago we had Chiefs Cowboys and the Cowboys found themselves with twelve wins. Last year we had Chiefs Bears, and the Bears had a season from hell and missed the playoffs. This year, the Super Bowl EXACTA at fifty five to one is drum roll please, Demonse.

Mixon was in the game. He ran for two sixty okay, and four touchdowns, but that wasn't the story. The story was Baker. Baker was twenty seven of thirty six only through thirty six passes for five hundred and forty five yards, seven touchdowns, no picks.

Mahomes threw at eighty eight times. It is an all time legendary college football game. Yeah, yeah, October twenty second, twenty sixteen all timer. And so they've played in the playoffs before Patrick got hurt against the Baker was there in the Browns and yeah that's my uh, that is most Super Bowl exact. Cannot wait. We are so excited

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I understand Herbert is a really good against the spread quarterback early in the season ten and five, but part of that is Patrick being five and two is even more impressive when you consider the fact that the Chiefs have become such a public team. Those lines are usually inflated. Chargers in the other direction. You know, they haven't had a ton of early season high high level expectations. I just think I do not see I think that Trent McDuffie is going to be able to neutralize Lad McConkie.

And with if that happens, how else are the Chargers who are they throwing it to? Like? How are they moving the ball? And don't I know hardball is going to want to run the No Rashwan Slater is a big deal. The Chiefs minus three against the Chargers is my first bet of the year and spoiler a bit. It is the only favorite I am taking in Week one. Next pick Demonse, next Weick.

It's you're really just picking a winner. Excuse me, I apologize, But if the Dolphins, the Dolphins have any chance of having a better season than I think the general public expects, from them. They must start fast, Colts, Pats, Bill's tough, Jets, Panthers, Chargers, Browns like that. That's their opening slate because late in the year we go, you go Ravens, Bill's Commanders, Saints, Easy, Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Bucks, Pats like and a lot of cold weather games in there.

This is a as close to a Week one must win for a team's playoff hopes as exist. I don't love, obviously, the the Colts quarterback in Daniel Jones. I think Miami wins the game outright, and I think Miami's gonna be able to move the ball in the Colts defense. I'll take Miami plus one at.

quarterback situation they have all year. Cincinnati has Trey Hendrickson coming off missing most of training camp, Shamar Stewart rookie pass rusher, missed a lot of the offseason, the first game for a new defensive coordinator, and maybe most importantly, and this is a point I have been trying to make.

I have real concerns about since he's offensive line and you got Miles Garrett, since he also so just desperately needs a win, that I don't think this is at any point going to be a style points type of game. I think this is going to be a man, if we're up three late, suck the air out of the stadium, get out of there with a win. So I think I think that, you know, twenty one to seventeen Cincinnati is a pretty likely outcome for this game. I'll take

the five points. I'm it's a home divisional dog against a team that is awful every single year in Week one, and so Cleveland plus five against Cincinnati is the way I'm going. It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just don't think Cincinnati is gonna dominate the game because they never dominate early in the season.

in trouble is against teams with explosive offenses. The Patriots do not have that, So I think that this is one of the few matchups all year where the Raiders defense is not going to be exploited. I think Max Crosby could have a big impact on that Patriots offensive line.

And if I know Vrabel, he's going to game plan to just not let Max Crosby stripsack flip the game, which leads to conservative play calling and a lot of what he did at times in Tennessee, which is just keep it close and try to out execute them late. I think Geno is gonna come out firing. I obviously really like Ashton genty and I think the Raiders win this game. And I'm getting two and a half points. This feels to me like twenty one to twenty Raiders.

So I'll take the Raiders plus two and a half. Also, Patriots won four games last year teams that won four if you were the previous year, and our Week one favorites are zero to five against the spread and the last five it's it's a rare thing that happens, and so I will go with the Raiders plus two and a half.

great regular season player. No, it's it's simply this. If Buffalo is at home, they shouldn't be underdogs, that's all, you know what I mean, Like Buffalo is too good of a team to be a home dog, and I think that that is I also saw Baltimore last year when people thought, oh, they have an extra chip on their shoulder because that's the team that knocked him out of the playoffs in the Chiefs and the Chiefs controlled that game. And so this, by the way, is a

very similar situation. Last year, it was Kansas City minus one and a half? Was it minus no? Yes, it was Kansas City minus one and a half against Baltimore in Kansas City. And that was why that likely play was almost such an awful beat because I had KC minus one and a half, case was up seven. They score, they think they score that touchdown, and then they're gonna go for two, which would have killed the bet. You know, Like if they go for two and they make it,

they win. If they go for two and they miss it, they lose. Either way, the Chiefs couldn't win by a point and a half. But I just don't think Buffalo should be home dogs. And this'll be the only time where do they play the Chiefs, And by the way, they wouldn't be home dogs against they play the Chiefs in Buffalo, but they'll be favored in that game. Like this is also a little too much, a little too

much respect for Baltimore. Like anytime this year, Buffalo is a home dog all betam which means right now is the only time. This is the only time all regular season they'll be a home dog. So my five picks, and a lot of this does have to do with preseason priors, but what else can you do in Week one?

Kansas City minus one in Brazil against the Chargers, Miami plus one at the Colts, Cleveland getting five at home against Cincinnati, Las Vegas getting two and a half in New England, and Buffalo getting one at home against Baltimore. My friends at boost Mobile ever signed up for a phone play and thinking wow, amazing price. Then a few months later, surprise, your bill's higher. With boost Mobile. You

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After thirty gigs, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay twenty five dollars a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. Bill Belichick's debut happened, started good hell of an opening drive, and then the rest of the game happened.

it's up against that Matt Patricia pro style defense. And I said yesterday, I think that is underselling the impact the Ohio State players had and over selling the impact the actual coach had, because to me, that was more about a young player who'd never played on the road, playing in a brutal environment and the other team having all these pros on defense than it was about Matt Patricia's brilliant scheme. But that was not a popular take.

The popular take was that Patricia was Dick Lebou mixed with Vince Lombardi out there, which would lead you to believe, well, if that's what Patricia's defense looks like, holy smokes, wait till you see his mentor Bill Belichick's defense, you know,

Monday night against TCU. And then what happened. What happened Monday night against TCU was his team with the seventy new players, with all the hype, with Jordan and Mia Hamm and Lawrence Taylor and all the North Carolina royalty in the stadium got absolutely dog walked for three hours. Because here's the truth, more than anything about college football, scheme matters, to a degree, talent matters more than anything.

Why is college coaching so important for the recruiting for the in this day's NIA, the ability to acquire the talent, and it is colored. I looked at yesterday's game and I said, TCU has a veteran quarterback who's been with the program for three years. North Carolina is starting a kid that transferred from South Alabama. I don't care that it's at North Carolina. That is not exactly a super scary or intimidating place to play. And I thought TCU. I didn't think they were gonna win by thirty, but

I thought they'd cover the three and a half. And I think folks that expected Belichick to come in and do a snap turn them into a contender turnaround were foolish. Now, oddly, Demonse, I think this actually makes it more likely that Bill Belichick is the North Carolina head coach in a year. Yeah, because the only way he wasn't going to be the North Carolina head coach in a year was if this went so well that an NFL team was like, Okay, that's you know, that's he's had his time off, we

now want to bring him in. I don't think it's going to go that way, and I do think that it is totally fair and totally in bounds to ask the question, does seventy something year old Bill Belichick have his eye on the ball here? That how much of Belichick, mister no distractions? Do your job, keep the main thing, the main thing? How much of that has been weakened by this three plus year at this point relationship with wanna be starlet Jordan Hudson. That's fair, that's not out

of bounds. That isn't I you're bringing up the guy's personal life because they have made their relationship super public via Instagram posts, podcast interviews, the CBS Morning News, and via the weirdest business run of trademarking attempting to trademark gold Digger and other weird stuff that you just know is going to shine the spotlight on the coach and his girlfriend. Who is the coach is older than Demonse's

grandmother and the girlfriend is younger than Demonse. That's all fair, and the only way to knock that out and have it just be a side thing is to be great. And not only do I not think they're going to be great, I think they are going. I think the expectations were a touch too high. You watch that game last night and you said to yourself, Oh, are they going to have competent quarterback play? That's a fair question. Then you watched that game last night and you said

to yourself, oh, does that defense. You've got to assume the defense is well coached, So how do we explain what we saw? Do they just really not have the personnel? Then you ask yourself the question of how long has it been since we have known Bill Belichick is a an above average talent evaluator. All those things come together for some very nervous times. So now listen, they get Charlotte Richmond and then UCF. I'll be totally honest, I don't know how good UCF is supposed to be this year.

They will beat Charlotte and Richmond, and they don't have because they're in the ACC and because of the draw, they have the only juggernaut on their schedules, Clemson. But in a month when they host Clemson, it's going to look like the TCU game but works. And if TCU, a team on the fringes of the top twenty five but outside of it, can do that to you, then you really worry about what any of the legitimate power five programs are going to do to them. And so.

that would positively affect his legacy. Him going to college football and being awful will not, in my opinion, negatively affect his legacy, except it will be it will affect it like this in thirty years demonse, when you're talking sports with young people and they're talking about the greatest coaches of all time and they're like, yeah, you know, and Bill Belichick at that point is like Vince Lombardi, you know what I mean, where they act like what

was you know, what made him greater? Whatever? You'll be like and really weird end for him, Right, he went and coached college and dated this twenty year old and like it kind of.

got no way around that. Oh there is one thing I can do, hold on the he needed to be really good at North Carolina Demandsay to have a chance to get back to the NFL and run down Shula. Yeah, so that part, you know what I mean, That part hurts him. But no, this is not his NFL legacy. And listen, I know people are gonna throw up the

record with Brady, record without Brady. The problem for that is we all saw, like those of us that saw those first three Patriot Championships understand how great they were defensively and that Brady wasn't Brady yet. And those of us that are being fair also remember the final Patriot Championship where they scored thirteen points in the Super Bowl and Belichick's defense made Sean McVeigh and Todd Gurley and

Jared Goff look totally inept on the biggest stage. So like that, I'm not gonna allow like the revisionist history on that, But this is a really a very auspicious inn or beginning to the final chapter.