2024 NFL Season-Long Bets, Win Totals, Division Winners & Super Bowl Exacta - podcast episode cover

2024 NFL Season-Long Bets, Win Totals, Division Winners & Super Bowl Exacta

Aug 27, 20241 hr 16 minEp. 261
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Episode description

02:36 - 2024 NFL Betting Stay-Aways

23:56 - Nick’s Picks for Win Totals

41:17 - Nick’s Picks for Division Winners

50:12 - Nick’s Picks for Making/Missing Playoffs

57:03 - Nick’s Super Bowl Exacta

1:03:49 - F1 Minute

1:10:36 - Fan Questions

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Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

Welcome Back, Episode two fifty seven, What's Right with Nick Wright and my absolute single favorite episode of the year. Our NFL season preview gambling show, all thirty two teams, all thirty two over unders pared down to six to ten that we love that we will bet that we will put our actual money on monitor throughout the season, and for the ones we don't bet, we still give you a lean and a direction we would bet so over the course of the year we can see how

we're doing on them. We will give you division winners, at least some. We'll give you make miss playoff bets. We will give you our Super Bowl EXACTA, which, for the record, the two years I've given out the Super Bowl exactly two years ago Chiefs Niners, the Chiefs made it, and the Niners were in the NFC Championship Game. Last year Chiefs Cowboys, where the Chiefs made it and the

Cowboys were the two seed in the NFC. They obviously ended up falling apart, but those were what my buddy Danny Parkins and now amazingly my co worker Danny Parkins would say, good value losers. They weren't winning bets, but they were good value smart bets at where we got them. So we're gonna do all of that. I also am going to give you a bit of a premise on how I do some of this work throughout the show.

But first, what missed the cut? Ceedee Lamb signs the most inevitable contract extension ever four years, won thirty six, Nick Chubb missing the first at least the first four games, and the Chargers sadly and scarily get stuck in the elevator demonse, Are you as excited for this show as I am?

Speaker 3

I'm super excited. Surprised that CD getting his contract missed the It was in the what miss you know with it being such a huge thing, But listen.

Speaker 2

The yeah we had the producers had the picks being the A block and then a regular show in the B block, and I was like, well, that's gonna be a three and a half hour show. I don't know how long they think it's going to take me to go through all thirty two over unders and then another twenty bets we're making, but it wouldn't be a nice tight twenty by the way, on that note, I did want to well, actually I don't even remember what I wanted to say, so we'll just get to it.

Speaker 3

Oh I do.

Speaker 2

I will give one other thing. No, two years ago when we did this, we made a lot of money and we won. Last year, we did very poorly on our exotic bets, as you will see later in the show. Because we're accountable, we're going to show you all of our picks from last year, where we went right, where we went wrong, and how we're going to try to learn from that experience this season. So there's the premise, Demons get us going.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so last year our gambling preview was Diora's last show, so I feel like that probably gave us some bad vibes, put us off to a bad start.

Speaker 2

But this year, that's nice, sister.

Speaker 3

I'm starting off and I'll be here all throughout to help you. So okay, well that's good, go ahead, amazing, amazing, I'll be here throughout. But yeah, So first off, we've got the teams that were betting, that were not betting or in other words, stay away.

Speaker 2

Our stay aways. Okay, so there are gonna be about twenty of these that I don't have a super I don't have a strong enough feel on to put money on, but I still like a side. Meaning none of these teams am I gonna say, Ah, the numbers perfect, you know, I'm not giving you a thought on it. So these we're gonna roll through and we have them ordered from the highest projected win total to the lowest win total of the teams we're not betting on, if that makes sense.

So we will start with the Niners, whose projected win total is eleven and a half. Oh one other thing. Sorry, I'm just so excited we are because we're adults and we're actual gamblers. We are going to do this show with the real juice attached to it. So the Niners total is eleven and a half, but that does not mean well if you bet over under, it's you know, minus one and ten on both Like on almost all of these, there is significant juice on one side or

the other. By the way, if you're listening right now and you're like, what do you mean by juice, this show might not exactly be for you, or you just need to not worry about the minute of the gambling talk. Just giving shit as always, thank you, as always demands with everything football gambling related. If I say a minus number, we're not talking point spreads here, that is how much you have to wager to win one hundred dollars. If I say a plus number, that is how much you

win if you wager one hundred dollars. Okay, So that is the very simple way to look at it. The Niners total is eleven and a half. I don't feel strongly enough about it to bet it, But if I were to bet it, I would be betting under eleven and a half getting plus one twenty six. And the rationale of that is very simple. They've had an brutal offseason. They are you still not there? Trent Williams still isn't there. Brock Purdy has been eh not great this preseason and offseason,

so I think winning twelve games is hard. I also think that division is better than people necessarily think it, or then maybe some people think it is so Nick, why are you not betting it? Then because they're the Niners. They might have one of the best rosters in football. I'd rather I think there are better spots, and I just think there are better spots to go out there

and put your money on it. By the way, speaking of the division, what demands And I'm curious how you feel about this because you haven't seen this from me, but this will inform the audience for the about the rest of the show. One of the things I do is I power rank the divisions on my own when I'm thinking about projected win totals. Okay, so here is how I have ranked the divisions. I've done it one through eight, but I've also put them in three buckets of the best, as you would say, mid and then

the bottom bucket. Best division in football, I believe is the NFC North. I think you have the Lions, the Bears, the Packers who are all good, the Vikings, who I think have a really good coach, the quarterback situation is going to be tough for them. I think that's the best division in football. The second best division in football, I believe to be the NFC West, where you have the Rams, the Niners, and the Seahawks, all legitimate teams,

and a potentially frisky Cardinals team. And then the third best division in football is the AFC North. The Ravens Bengals are excellent, the Steelers, Browns are well coached with good defenses. Those three divisions, to me, Demansea are head and shoulders above the rest. How does that land you on your step?

Speaker 3

I thought the North maybe be ahead of the West in my opinion, either in that too or AFC. You think the AAC nor North would be higher than the NFC West. Yeah, that's just my opinion. I can honestly, I honestly put AFC North at number one. But that's just so.

Speaker 2

I think most people would. No, I don't think it's just you. I think most people would. But it informed my picks this year. Here's why I didn't. I don't think the Steelers are going to be good, and I think the Browns have a disaster on their hands. At the quarterback spot. So I think people look at it as, oh, those are four legitimate teams. I don't. I think that

there's two excellent teams and two okay teams. Meanwhile, the NFC North and the NFC West, I think it's each division has three good teams Seahawks, Rams, Niners, Bears, Packers, Lions.

Speaker 3

All.

Speaker 2

Right. Now to the two mid divisions, Okay, that I have at number four the AFC South and at number five the AFC East. And that is because the AFC South I don't think has any outstanding team, but has two maybe three good teams in the Texans, the Jags, the Colts, and then the Titans are there. The AFC East I feel similarly, I don't think there's a juggernaut, but I think there are three good ish teams in

the Bills, the Jets, and the Dolphins. And then the reason that that the AFCs could be higher, but the Patriots are so bad that they drag the like they're just I mean, they might be a three win team and so they drag it down. And then so does that sound about right to you?

Speaker 3

Yeah? I like that one. Yeah.

Speaker 2

And then the bottom three divisions, here's how I've got it number six. The NFC East, where I am not, as you will see, as high on Philly as a lot of people. Dallas has not had a great offseason. The Commanders could be interesting, and the Giants will be terrible. The AFC West I have at seven because the Chiefs are awesome. The Chargers are I think going to be better because of Harball, but they have no weapons, and

I think this is kind of a build year. The Broncos are one of the least on paper talented teams in the league, even though I actually think they'll be sneaky better than people think this year. And the Raiders are brutal. And then, obviously, and last is the NFC South as it has been regularly over the last few years. So that's how I ranked the divisions. NFC North, NFC West, AFC North, followed by AFC South, AFC East, followed by NFC East, AFC West, NFC South. All right, now back

to our actual gambling show. We're ten minutes in. We've given out one over under. This is why we couldn't do the cd LAMB topic Detroit. The total is ten

and a half. You know what, I want to do this for these ones we're not picking, don't look at the Rundown demons, all right, Okay, I want to do it like this for the ones we're not picking, and you don't have to worry about the juice because I I'm gonna tell you the team and the number, and you just tell me if you which way you would lean over under and if it's one, and you can also say if you love it. Obviously, none of these are ones I love because they're in the teams. We're

not betting. Detroit's ten numbers ten and a half. The juice is on the over at minus one thirty.

Speaker 3

Yeah, that that's that's honestly a tough one i'd have. I'd have to go under just because I've been saying that I think the Lions are gonna take a step back this year.

Speaker 2

Okay, so that was one I don't know.

Speaker 3

But I'll also let me say that I don't love going under.

Speaker 2

But that's just yeah, right, So that's why to stay away. So that's why to stay away, because I'm going over and I don't and I have a team in their division making the super Bowl in Chicago, so I I you know, it's obviously a conflicted but if I had to go one way, I'd go over. All right, Baltimore's total is ten and a half, it's juiced to the it's juice to the under at minus one twenty two.

Speaker 3

I'd bet over. I love it. I think the I think Lamar Jackson is going to have his best season ever, which is crazy because he's had some really good regular seasons. But I just think all the cards are on the table for for Lamar Jackson. At this point. You can just play football, and I think it's I think it's going to go very well. They got everybody they had last year with the respect.

Speaker 2

Except here's no well, so they have they have all their weapons, but lost a couple offensive linemen, lost a couple of defensive pieces, and lost their defensive coordinator. So I again, these are not ones I feel strongly about, but I lean I would lean under Buffalo's number ten and a half, juiced heavily to the under. It's like minus one fifty five for the under on that Buffalo's total is ten and a half. Which way do you lean?

Speaker 3

I'll go under on it. Yeah, that's wow.

Speaker 2

On the I'm glad that these are stay aways because you and I have disagreed on all of them so far. To me, I like the over, and this is where the juice on this matters to me, Buffalo, this is a perfect number. Buffalo is going to win ten or eleven games. So if I can get plus one thirty five on the over and minus one fifty five on the under, I would go over for Buffalo. But again, these are stayaways. All right, we'll do this faster in this regard. Here are the teams at nine and a

half that were staying away from Houston and Atlanta. They are both at nine and a half. They are both minus won forty juice to the over. How do you feel about each of those teams?

Speaker 3

Houston at nine and a half, Yeah, I'd say I like that one. I like the over on it. I'd go over on it.

Speaker 2

Okay, that's where I would be leaning as well.

Speaker 3

Go ahead. Next it was the second one was Atlanta over, Yeah, I call it over. I'd be cool with going around nine and a half when Atlant me too.

Speaker 2

Again, these are stayways, but that's how I feel. Houston. I think there's a little too much like Super Bowl buzz. But they're gonna I don't think they're gonna be bad, so they're gonna be, you know, at least five hundred. So five hundred puts you at nine and eight essentially, So I would tend to lean to the over there and Atlanta. I really like the addition of Jude, on the addition of the safety. All of a sudden, the defense isn't such a disaster of perks healthy all right.

Here are the eight and a half teams, The Chargers, the Browns, the Colts, and the Steelers are all eight and a half. Obviously the juice where you don't have to get into it on these that were staying away from these, The juice varies. How do you where would you lean on? Chargers, Browns, called Steelers all eight and a half?

Speaker 3

Chargers at eight and a half, I'd go, man, the Chargers go win nine games, So I guess it depends all of the schedule. Was yeah, over, I'm cool with going over for the Chargers.

Speaker 2

Yes, keep in mind yes, and keep in mind last place schedule for them because they were so bad last year. Yes, last year the Raiders and Broncos and the hardball bump. So I'm with you. I'd be an over for the Chargers, and this some full disclosure here. This would have been a bet. I would have bet the over for the Chargers if Herbert didn't get the planner fascia or planner for shyness. That one worries me. The walking boot worries me.

And I know they're saying it's gonna be healthy week one, but all the internet doctors say it could flare up, and so that made it a stay away. Otherwise I would have done it all right. The other three are Cleveland, Indy, and Pittsburgh. Are that they're all eight and a half.

Speaker 3

Indy, I'm gonna go under eight and a half. I'm sorry Richardson.

Speaker 2

I know I want to Rooper Anthony Richardson, and I know they won nine games with Gardner, but I'm also going under.

Speaker 3

Next Cleveland, Cleveland eight and a half. Uh, i'd say Cleveland, I'd go over on Cleveland. I'm not gonna go under on it. I mean that Cleveland. I'm sorry. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Cleveland. Yeah, I guess yeah that I'd go under, not just because you said I.

Speaker 2

I think I think Deshaun's going to potentially get benched. I mean it's weird that they brought in Jamis I and so I. That's just something to watch Pittsburgh. I think their quarterback situation is going to be a disaster. I think that you're figured.

Speaker 3

It out pretty fast. I don't think they'll think they'll cut the core quick, but.

Speaker 2

I don't think that they I think it's I think the options are this car is a flat tire and this car is a blown transmission. It's not like figuring it out. It's like, nope, we're just not gonna actually get too far.

Speaker 3

Ok.

Speaker 2

I think this is the year Tomlin streak breaks.

Speaker 3

All right?

Speaker 2

Uh, here are there's a bunch of seven and a Half's. Okay, and again if people are just joining us, which pretty weird because it's a podcast, but maybe you are. Maybe you're joining late Live on YouTube. Uh, these are the bets we're actually not making. These are stay aways. But I still want to be on the record for all thirty two teams. Here are the seven and a half's pardon me, Minnesota, Tampa, Seattle, New Orleans, Arizona. Those are all the seven and a halfs, So Minnesota. I want

to go first on Minnesota. Then we can go to the others. Minnesota to me was going to be a bet at under seven and a half because Donald Donald's not good, this is not good. Hockinson is on the pup list, They've had defensive injuries. But the juice they should just move the number to six and a half. The juice on the under is minus one seventy. I can't lay minus one seventy on a on a season win bet of involving one team. I'm just not doing that over. So the over is like plus one fifty.

But they're also not winning eight games, so you're kind of stuck there, like and so I mean maybe they could, I guess because they have a great coach in Justin Jefferson. Yeah, so Minnesoter So all right, So Tampa, Seattle, New Orleans, Arizona are the other seven and a half's. It's interesting because those four teams are all probably fighting. You know, Vegas thinks they're fighting for the final wild card spot in the NFC. They're you know, they're out. How do you lean on those new teams?

Speaker 3

New Orleans I'd go under, I know that. And then yeah in Seattle.

Speaker 2

And also Derek, I'd lean over for Seattle as well. I say, one hundred percent, but I have it as a stay away, so that's kind of weird. Maybe I feel more strongly about New Orleans I thought, but that that division makes it feel like they could win eight games and miss. And then there's you didn't give us, And I agree with you on Seattle as well. I like Gino, I like Mike McDonald, but I think that division's really tough. Then Arizona and Tampa or the other seven and a half's.

Speaker 3

Tampa seven and a half, yeah, i'd give I'd give Tampa eight wins. Yeah, And I agree Arizona and Arizona's yeah, I'm not I don't know, I'm not comfortable. I'd go under on Arizona.

Speaker 2

I just mean, so after those first five, you and I actually are in somewhat of agreement on most of these all. Right now to the worst, the lowest totals or three of the lowest totals in the league as we finish our stay aways, Tennessee is six and a half. I'm just gonna I'm leaning under. Maybe Will Levis will be good, but I don't think so. Carolina and New England are both five and a half. I'm leaning under

for Carolina. Over for New England just because no, I like Drake May, I like I mean, I think, I think, I mean Bryce Young might be able to fit in Drake May's pocket. And so I'm gonna have to pick one of these guys with a bad offensive line and a young quarterback. I'll take the big one. And then we have an announcement to make, because you might be hearing the stayaways and being like, oh, you know who

wasn't on the stay away list? The Jacksonville Jaguars, whose number is just eight and a half, and it's the Jews. This is only minus one fifteen on the over. So I have an important announcement to make. I believe in the Jags. I believe in the Prince. However, in reviewing last season's gambling show, we had a lot tied up in Jacksonville. If the Jacksonville Jaguars had won one more game, we would have had a profitable season. Instead, we ended up being down seven point two units on the year,

based purely off the Jags collapse. Because I had them, I had the season over, I had them winning the division. I had them in a division winner parlay. The other thing one, I had a playoff team Parlay. It was just so unfathomable to me they wouldn't come through. So because of that, Demanse, here's my announcement. I am not only not betting the Jags in the preseason win total. Okay, they're just they're just a self imposed Jags band, is

what's happening right here. I am also I am also not betting the Jags this season until they go to England. I want to have the first kind of the the the American part of their schedule is kind of their own preseason. Let me see how it's looking, how how healthy Trevor is, what this press Taylor offense is, how Brian Thomas Jr. And then we'll reconvene on the Jags when they when they head to jolly old England Town.

I believe it's week six, let me check real quick, but I can tell you so that means we will not be betting the Jags at Miami home against Cleveland, at Buffalo, at Houston home against Indy. Oh my gosh, demand.

Speaker 3

Your games that you want to bet them on. Huh. I imagine I.

Speaker 2

Don't know who knows. We don't know what the number is, so we don't know if I do, but I didn't. I had forgotten this. I'm sure I knew it, but I had forgotten it. Demon's a week six for the Jags on NFL Network in England playing Caleb Willis playing Caleb Williams, and.

Speaker 3

The I mean so that the producer, mister Matt, that Caleb Williams is probably you know, the guy that you expected Trevor and Lawrence to be.

Speaker 2

And well we'll see, probably the guy expect Trevor to be, by the way, not that it's that interesting to the audience, but do you call Matt mister Matt? Is that like a sign of respect?

Speaker 3

Yeah, in the like, I didn't want to be like, I don't know, I feel kind of weird of being like producer and it's like I know him, you know, No.

Speaker 2

I'm asking when you're off the air, you're like, high Matt.

Speaker 3

Okay, that's what I meant.

Speaker 2

Okay, all right, No, I all right. I understand the respect as far as on reference on the air, but I thought it was like, hey, mister Matt. I was like, oh wow about Matt. Matt becomes a father all of a sudden, people are giving him honorrifics. I would have never thought it. Okay, all right, Now now to the actual bets we will make kind of okay, So there are five team totals. I like, all right, They're not all over, they're not all you know, the they're mixtures.

But there are better ways to make the bet that I like. Okay, So Dallas is over nine and a half is minus one four. I like Dallas to win ten games, but there is a better way to bet them to win ten games. We'll get to that later in the show, Green Bay. This one's gonna be painful for Demansey.

Speaker 3

The Strange one.

Speaker 2

Their total. Their total is eight and a half if I had to bet, and the juice is minus one thirty eight on the under. Hold on, I don't think the juice is minus one thirty eight on the under.

Speaker 3

There.

Speaker 2

I have to check that I might have written that down wrong real quick. I'm just gonna look. I have it open right here, Green Bay. I'm sorry. It is minus no, no, no, it is minus one thirty eight. But I did write it down wrong. It's under nine and a half. I knew that had to be wrong. I was like, They're total is not it's you and it's juice to the under under nine. I like the Green Bay under nine and a half, not under eight

and a half, pardon me, and it's juice to the under. However, there is a better way to bet that, which we will discuss later. Miami their total for the season is also nine and a half, and it is I like the under on that. I jotted some of these wrong down wrong, so I'm fixing it. It's plus one ten on the under, but there is a better way to do that one as well. Cincinnati their total is ten and a half. I like the over, there's a better way to bet that. And Washington their total is six

and a half. I like the over. There's a better way to bet that. So to be clear, Dallas at nine and a half, Cincinnati at ten and a half, Washington at six and a half. I like all theoretically, I like all those overs, but there's a smarter way to make those bets. And Green Bay and Miami I like the under nine and a half, but there's a smarter way to make those bets. Okay, So that is the preamble to our actual wagers. We've been on for a half hour. We haven't given out a single bet

that we're actually making. But now everything else you hear are going to be actual bets that we are making. So demons, now you have the ignominious task of recapping how we did last season. So go ahead and start there.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so last year you bet? I think you're overshonographic, Yes, Chicago under seven and a half, that was a hit. Win, Dallas, Dallas over ten and a half, that was a winner. Winner, Seattle over eight and a half. Winner, Philly, what they were ten and one, but skin of my teeth, but that was a winner. Thank you Jalen and the Philly and the defense. Go ahead, Philly and you have under eleven and a half. That was a winner. And so your your losers? Who got Kansas City over eleven and

a half? Jack I mean that was.

Speaker 2

Can I just say something about that real quick? The Chiefs had the worst season possibly imaginable, and they still won eleven games and then won the Super Bowl. So I don't feel badly about that. Now. The Jags won. That one hurts because I because I could have gotten them. I would have lost anyway. I guess it was smart that I did this.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Jackson swel was nine and a half.

Speaker 2

Their total was nine and a half, and I instead, I bet an alternate line to ten and a half to get plus money. I would have lost both of them.

Speaker 3

Go ahead, Jacksonville half. New England over seven and a half was a loss, Sam.

Speaker 2

Francis, I mean that was New England over seven and a half was a travesty. I don't know what came over me. I don't know why I thought it was a good bet. I hate. I mean, I was obviously wrong about yeah, and so listen. I don't feel badly about the Chiefs. And with the Chiefs bet winning, I would have been five and three, said I was four and four. Okay, So here we go. Here we go, demons. We have four overs, we have four unders. We are starting with the overs. The first one is an auto

must fire. I do not care that they actually didn't for the first time in the Andy Reid or it didn't hit their over last year, the Chiefs over eleven and a half. The juice is only minus one twelve. They had the worst season imaginable last year, and they won eleven games. They're going to win thirteen or fourteen games this year. We are listen, twenty to zero. I'm not gonna put out there because that was you know that one bit me a bit. So the Chiefs are

over eleven and a half. The next over, I have the Bears over eight and a half. The juice on this is strong. It's minus one sixty. Now the producers remind me that Nick, you were so anti betting on the the Vikings at minus won seventy, but you're okay with the Bears at minus won sixty. Well, first of all, that ten cents matters. Second of all, I think that the Vikings they have more paths. The Vikings do to finding eight wins than the Bears due to not winning

nine games. The Bears are gonna win eleven games and so maybe twelve games. So I like the Bears over eight and a half. More on the Bears later the Rams over eight and a half at minus one fifty two. Now, again, these last two were laying bit heavy juice. Man, I understand that I aining the Rams are gonna be awesome. I aining the Rams are I think this could be his final excellent year. Whatever Cooper Cup has left before, you know, his body kind of gives out on him. Sadly,

we're gonna see Pookah's only moving up. I love McVeigh I love the Rams. And then lastly, this one will surprise people all. Take Denver over five and a half at minus one thirty. Denver last year won nine games, within my opinion bad quarterback play. I think that bow Knicks is my number one pick of young quarterback who will trick or I'm sorry, Denver won eight games last year.

Pardon me, young quarterback who will trick box score watchers meaning people are like, oh, bow Knicks further ahead of schedule than we thought, when in reality, what we're gonna see is Sean Payton's gonna give him a training wheels offense, and because he's you're a demonse, he's going to come in. It's gonna be very mac Jones rookie year ish. It's like, hey, look at his numbers, look at the winds, but it's

like that's actually his ceiling as a player. But I think Denver's I just don't think Sean Payton's going to go five and twelve. And so the four overs that I have the Chiefs over eleven and a half minus one twelve, the Bears over eight and a half minus one sixty, the Rams over eight and a half minus one fifty two, the Broncos over five and a half minus one twenty eight demonse your thoughts on those four overs?

Speaker 3

Love the Chiefs. I hope that the Chicago thing doesn't become a you know, bring you into the wilderness like Jacksonville did. But obviously this is a different situation, but at the same time it's a little similar. But so that one eight and a half I trust, but I feel like it might lead you into some other things. The Rams I like, Denver, I like a lot. I like all those except for Chicago. I'm just like, you know, worried about.

Speaker 2

You're worried about. All right, Well, I'm glad you like those, because I don't think you're gonna love my unders four unders. The first one I'm giving you is what a lot of you're gonna see. My analysis and picks is based on which is I think Philadelphia is cartoonishly overvalued by Vegas right now. Last year they had a bottom five defense all season, They had a historically bad end of

season collapse. They lost the single best player on their entire team to retirement, and the guy who calls out coverages or protections pardon me in Jason Kelsey, the head coach in the quarterback don't get along. And the head coach now has come out evidently and said, hey, you know all that taunting and history onic bulls I was doing on the sidelines that smart people like Nick Wright were saying for years, That's not how I head coach acts.

He didn't say that part, but he should have. Well, my owner came to me and told me to stop it. That's what happened. That thing came out yesterday. Alway, He's like, yeah, I'm gonna chill out. He's gonna chill out because the owner was like, hey, man, quit acting like a clown on the sideline. That team is not gonna win eleven games.

Speaker 3

Did he have to? Sorry?

Speaker 2

No, So I want to make sure that I so I'll take Philly under the ten and a half. And since we spent a moment on it, I do want to make sure I'm telling you that Nick Sirianni story.

Speaker 3

Uh uh almost its like he didn't have to.

Speaker 2

I'm gonna read you. Uh let me see where where God dogged. It's a lot.

Speaker 3

I think vote.

Speaker 2

Go ahead to Mamsey.

Speaker 3

I think Philly's got a better chance of winning the division than the Cowboys, though I don't know I just I don't feel like the Cowboys are gonna do it this year.

Speaker 2

Well, so I understand that. I'm just telling you. So if you want to Nick sirianni uh he discussed, you can go to Pro Football Talk for the full story. But yeah, I mean, he has long quotes about how he needed to be better in all of this stuff. But regardless, I just don't think that. I just think they're wildly overvalued. Another team that I think is wildly overvalued, and I'm getting plus money on the under here the New York Jets under nine and a half plus one

thirty two. They have a bad coach, an awful offensive coordinator, and given their conference, a below average quarterback. That's just what they have. And so you can be like below average quarterback, Yeah, Mahomes, Burrow, Allen Lamar, CJ Herbert Trevor. That's seven. It's only sixteen teams. Some people throw two in there, and so I do not believe that the New York Jets are going to win double digit games.

So I will take the under and I will continue fading the Jets as I have for most of my life, and it's been one of my more profitable decisions I also do not think the Las Vegas Raiders are winning seven games Raiders under six and a half plus one sixteen.

Speaker 3

Did you say that was gonna be a sneaky, feisty.

Speaker 2

Team, she said, I know, I said the Broncos. No.

Speaker 3

No, I said, no, I'm thinking of a whole not even today. I thought this is like another pod you said like the Raiders were like a sneaky Okay.

Speaker 2

No, that wouldn't have been me. I I'm trying to think of what team I might have said that about that that would fit the description. Not the Raiders. I maybe the I'm not sure who it would have been, but not the rattle of them.

Speaker 3

And then you added like, yeah, yeadle, I thought about but.

Speaker 2

But regardless, not the Raiders, either O'Connell or Gardner minshew. And as a general rule of thumb, listen, maybe he'll be good, but just because the players love D'Antonio Pierce doesn't mean he was your best option at UH at head coach. And if I if I need a little extra push to one side or another, your quarterback and the only and your star defensive player doing the old double thumbs up with old forty five get out of here man, the the I don't think demons gets the

reference that it doesn't matter. The forty five is the number President Trump was. That picture was annoying. The team stinks. They've been embarrassing forever, the the and so I just the that's actually not my analysis of the Raiders, but that also reconfirmed this is an unseerious team.

Speaker 3

Uh. And the.

Speaker 2

Patrick Mahomes thing they have, No, I don't think they're gonna have a I think they the home field is gonna be tough because so many people are gonna travel to Vegas. Uh for gonna travel to Vegas, pardon me for bachelor parties and vacation and gambling. And they're gonna do it. Win their teams in town. Also sneaky. They have a second place schedule because they ended up winning eight games last year. Yeah, because the Chargers won five. They both won eight. Yeah, so that's a tough one.

So I'll take under six and a half for the Raiders, and then the juice is minus one forty So I don't love it. But the Giants might be the worst team in the league. The Giants is gonna under six and a half. It's just an under. Daniel Jones is gonna get Ben Strulock's gonna play. He's a Kansas City kid. I'd like him to do well. He won't, And it's just it's just an under. So my four unders are Philly ten and a half, the Giants nine and a half,

the Raiders six and a half. I'm sorry, the Jets nine and a half, the Giants six and a half, and the Raiders six and a half. I just realized, gosh, darn it, this is not a great strategy for me.

Speaker 3

From a uh geographically standpoint.

Speaker 2

Yeah, alfe popularity thing, and that the three teams closest to where I live, Philly, the Jets and the Giants, I'm just under across the board. Meanwhile, far off lands of Los Angeles, Denver, Kansas City, and Chicago, I'm high on their teams. And I mean, that's unbelievable. And now I look at me teams, well, right, And that's what

I was gonna say. The three teams in the city closest to me, in the city's closest to me, I'm on the under and the one team in the city I most enjoy visiting in Vegas and we'll definitely visit during the season. I'm on the under, all right. So there's our eight picks for the team totals Chiefs, Bears, Rams, Broncos over, Philly Jets, Giants, Raiders. Under. We give you some division winners, which last year was the death of our bank role, some make miss playoffs, and of course

our Super Bowl exacta. That's all next What's Right? Welcome back in What's Right with Nick Wright and our annual football gambling show. But first, let me tell you guys looking for your next favorite tequila. Tere Manna is a premium small batch tequila founded by Dwayne the Rock Johnson. Each bottle of Terrormana is meticulously crafted from one hundred percent fully mature agave, slow roasted in traditional brick ovens,

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be twenty one years or older. Please enjoy responsibly Tearamana small batch tequila forty percent alcohol by volume imported by Siete Buck Spirits, White Planes, New York. All right, demand, So we just did our team win totals. Now we have to do our division winners, which is where really last year went to die. We were because of the because of the Viig and the juice plus minus in

win totals. Even though we were four and four. We actually made a little money on our team win total bets last year because of the way the Viig fell. As you're about to see on the division winner bets, we definitively obviously clearly did not win money because we missed them all. So let me say something here that I think is frustrating. If I may, okay, Miami, So I had Miami, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle all to

win their divisions. None were favorites. With the logic being hit one of them and you're basically good, Hit two of them and you win a lot of money.

Speaker 3

It is.

Speaker 2

Maddening, absolutely maddening. Put that back on the screen, if we can please that Miami, Pittsburgh and Green Bay all made the playoffs when not expected to, and I so I clearly believed in them more than that Vegas did. Initially they were underdogs to make the playoffs, all of them. Green Bay a huge underdog to make the playoffs, people though it was a rebuilding year. Pittsburgh big underdog to make the playoffs, Miami tiny underdog me the playoffs last year.

I believed in all of them. They all made the playoffs and none won the division. Miami had to full blown collapse not to win the division, just a total absolute collapse. And then my other bets were a Jacksonville Kansas City parlay, which Jacksonville killed me on and that was a two unit bet. And then, like I said, the Pittsburgh Miami Green Bay parlay which was ninety to one, and that was a quarter unit bet. So you might say, Nick, so did you learn your lesson or you're not gonna

bet divisions this year? And the answer to that is no. The lesson was be sharper, It's not oh, I can't bet that category of bets. And here is where you will see your first version of Remember earlier when I said there's a better way to make that bet you're gonna see that in a few places here. So let's demands. Let's get going. Here is the first one division winner that I'm betting the Bears plus three forty the Bears plus three forty to win the NFC North. Now I

also am on them. That's so the Bears they could bite me because I'm on them on their over and I'm on them to win the NFC North. Don't care. It's plus three forty the Rams at plus three thirty to win the NFC West. This is one of my more one of my favorite bets, because I think that Niners are not going to be quite as dominants people think.

I think the Rams can be excellent again. So this is kind of doubling down to a degree on having the over on those two teams, but with great odds attached to it, right, And then Cincinnati at plus one sixty five to win their division. You hate this one, I'm certain of it. But that's ridiculous.

Speaker 3

I mean, the Bengals winning the division over the Ravens. Over the Ravens after the Ravens just easily won the division last year. I just don't think was injured all jo Joe Burrows injured all year. The year before, he's still coming off of an injury. Jamar Chase still got his contract woes. I think there's some stuff going on in the locker room the front office. I don't think they're going the division.

Speaker 2

That's fair, listen, that's fair. What I so this is if you remember when I said the Bengals I liked there over, but there was a better way to bet it at Instead of taking the Bengals over ten and a half at minus one twenty, why don't I take the Bengals to win the division at plus one sixty five if I believe that it's not gonna take twelve thirteen wins to win the division, because I don't think Baltimore is gonna be quite as good as de Monte

do as. We just disagree there, and if Lamar were to get dinged, the Bengals could win the division with ten wins. And that's a scenario where you win the division winner bet but would have lost the team total bet of ten and a half. It's a similar situation for me with the next one, which is Dubas. So Dallas to win the division is plus one seventy five. Dallas to win ten games is minus one forty five ten or more games because their totals nine and a half.

I think that you could win the NFC East with ten wins. I think you would win it with eleven wins. So if I think Dallas is gonna hit double digit wins and no one else in that division is, instead of laying minus one forty four, I'll get plus one seventy five on them to win the division, and then a flyers the one flyer Washington to win that same division at eleven to one. Okay, So here's the logic on this. It's simply saying Philly's not gonna be good.

I'm basically putting a half unit at plus one seventy five and a half unit at eleven to one, and basically pretending the Giants don't exist because they might as well not, and saying somebody's got to win that division. It's not gonna be the Giants and Philly's not gonna be good, and the Wash every year, I don't know who it's going to be, but every year, Demons, there's a shocker, and I don't have it pegged. Last year was Houston shocker? Legit, like what? And so I don't

know who it's going to be. But when we say shocker, shocker is not the Bengals go from worse to first. Shocker is one of the following teams New England, Tennessee, the Broncos, the Commanders, the Panthers. That might be the full list, Like one of those level teams is in the mix for the postseason. And I'll just take you know, I'll take a small flyer on Washington for that reason. And then this is maybe demands. You don't like it, that's fine. This is my second favorite bet on the

sheet because it's almost ten to one. It is a Chiefs Bills Bengals division winner parlay at plus nine seventy five. I the So I don't I think the Chiefs obvious. I think the Bills are still the best team in the AFC East, and Cincinnati I think is gonna be excellent, and I think Baltimore Steven's gonna take a step back. So again, you don't love these, that's fine.

Speaker 3

It's half units, half units.

Speaker 2

That is the other thing I learned from last year. We'll go half unit on these divisional wagers. They're plus money, big, you know, big plus money odds so instead of it. Last year we had five one unit bets, a two unit bet, and a quarter unit bet, so we had seven and a units on our division winner bets. This year one, two, three, four, five, six, we have six half unit bets, so we've taken sixty percent of our exposure away. Okay, what's our next category.

Speaker 3

Our next category is making making or missing the playoffs. So last year you bet New York Jets to miss the playoffs that obviously cashed, and then you put you had Kansas City, had Dallas. Oh yeah, yeah, you had Kansas City, Dallas and Jacksonville parlayed to make the playoffs that didn't hit Cleveland, the Jets in Detroit to miss that one didn't hit.

Speaker 2

Here's so this is the other spot. This is the other spot where the Jags ruined me. So last year, like you said, I put two units on the Jets to miss it was one of the best bets we made all year. I had, and I don't know if we have the graphic to show it. I had at good odds the Chiefs, Dallas and Jacksonville to make. The Chiefs clinched eurly, the Cowboys clinched eurly. The Jags started eight and three and then fell apart, so that was plus one sixty. That was a two unit bet. So

that was that was a painful one. That's where I'm saying, he's again the Jags, jackson We had them divisions. Jacksonville really killed me. And then Cleveland, New York and Detroit to miss. That was a quarter unit bet at plus one. At plus seven fifty five, that's a bad bet because Cleveland and Detroit made it, so that was just a bad bet. But the Jacksonville one killed me. Uh all right, So I have demons, three teams that I'm straight up

betting to miss, and then I have some parlays. Okay, so straight up to miss the Jets for reasons previously discussed their plus one thirty eight the Philadelphia if you remember earlier, let me find it. Oh no, Philadelphia, as previously discussed, I'm fading them all year plus two thirty five to miss. And if you remember earlier, I said for Miami there was a better way to bet them instead of betting under nine and a half. I'm going to bet them to miss the playoffs, and that's you know,

that's where I'm gonna get my value from them. So I'm going to go under, uh my, or I'm gonna go Miami at plus one twenty eight to miss the playoffs. That's where I'm gonna get thee.

Speaker 3

Here is just it's a cheat code. It's awesome, like they both exist and here's the problem.

Speaker 2

So, but here's the reason why. It's because sometimes you value cut yourself. So sometimes the under would have hit, but they make the playoffs. Like it's the opposite of what you would think you under. Say what I mean, So a team whose total is under nine and a half at minus one point fifteen, you bet them to miss the playoffs at plus one twenty they go nine to eight and make the playoffs, you know what I mean. So that's the so the it it. You have to have kind of a good idea of what it's gonna

take to make the postseason all of that. But I do think sometimes you can find some value in those spots. So those are the only three, uh those are the only three individual make miss playoff bets. I'm making the jets of plus one thirty eight to miss Philliot plus two thirty five to miss Miami at plus one twenty eight to miss. By the way, you parlay. All, I'm sorry, that's a different one, so I'll wait on that one for a moment. The yeah, that's right, so I'll get

to that in a moment. Now, this right here, Demanse, this parlay I'm about to give out is my favorite bet on the sheet. I know it says this is a two unit bet. I'm adjusting that in real time. This is going to be a three unit bet. Okay, the following four teams to miss the postseason, the Giants, the Raiders, the Steelers, the Saints. Those four teams to miss the playoffs, you get plus two hundred. Those four teams, not a single one of them is gonna get to

nine wins. The only one that could is Pittsburgh because of the Tomlin voodoo, and nine won't get you to the playoffs. In the AFC, in that division, it's plus two hundred. It's three units. We're locking it in now, go ahead, demant s go No, that that.

Speaker 3

Was very fair with the With the Pittsburgh I was, I was, I was a little worried, But yeah, they are in a division where that amount of yeah, one hundred percent. No, I like that a lot. I see why you put three units on it all.

Speaker 2

Right, So now a different parlay to make the playoffs. This is much harder because it's longer odds. The Chiefs free money, the Bills should do it. And then the two teams I'm riding in the NFC, the Rams and the Bears. That's seven to one. That's a half unit bet. Two AFC teams, two NFC teams seven to one, a half unit bet. And then a flyer of three teams everyone's high on but me that Demons is just gonna hate this bet. But that's okay. Green Bay, the Jets,

and the Eagles all to miss. It's plus seventeen twenty and that is a quarter unit bet. So let's just look at this. I'm going to very quickly. I should have done this before. I'm gonna do this in real time. I apologize for doing math on the air. And we're gonna figure out how many units that I have laid out before we get to our Super Bowl EXACTA on my overs, I'm just doing the juice in my head.

One point one plus one point six, we're at two point seven plus one point five, we're at four point two plus one point three wor at five point five plus one plus one plus one word eight point five plus Oh, that's perfect plus one point five. All right. We risked ten units on our team totals on our division winners. We already told you six half unit bets, so we're at thirteen. On our miss the playoff bets. Those Jets, Eagles, Dolphins or three were at sixteen. We

have a three unit bet on a parlay. So now we're at nineteen. We have a make the playoffs bet for a half unit. We're at nineteen and a half. We have a quarter unit bet there. We're at nineteen point seventy five. That's perfect. So we have basically twenty units out in the ether leading into our favorite bet of the year, our Super Bowl EXACTA. These are, on

general principle, one unit bets every year. We're not going small on these because if we can't go small, because then when you finally do hit it, you're gonna be sick. Demand's a last year. What was it? We can show the audience, even though they already know, I'm sure.

Speaker 3

You bet Kansas City to versus Dallas and Kansas City to defeat Dallas. That was that. Kansasity Versusdallas is that was plus three thousand and fifty and see defeating Dallas is at plus five thousand, and that did not cash.

Speaker 2

But famously, the year before we had Kansas City versus the Niners at fifty to one. In Kansas City beat the Niners at eighty five to one. And then brock Party. You know what I mean, the Curse of brock Party. He gets his elbow blown up, the Eagles run away with it. We don't get to see it this year. Everybody knows what it is. It's the Chiefs Bears and the Chiefs beating the Bears. Those are a nice tidy plus six thousand, six hundred and fifty and plus ninety

five hundred, those two things. So I'm just worded. I'm just telling you.

Speaker 3

Just what the math is.

Speaker 2

You know, we're getting plus sixty six hundred and plus ninety five hundred. What's up to one?

Speaker 3

Say? Yeah, I feel like this almost like negated all the good picks you just gave out, like for this, Oh, you don't believe in Cale Williams. I don't believe that the Chicago Bears are going to make the Super Bowl. And Cale Williams first year, I get this as one of the more whimsical picks, and you can be a little bit more, you know, hyperbolic, but uh yeah, I mean it's hey man, so plus plus.

Speaker 2

So Daniel just wrote in, isn't putting the Chiefs versus the Bears as a bet itself a hedge that the Chiefs could lose in the actual Super Bowl. He's saying, why would I not just put two units on the plus ninety five hundred as opposed to one unit on the matchup and one unit on that? And I understand that. I think this is one of the many times Daniel thinks he is he's like got him. Here's why, Daniel, my dear friend. Let me let me put it to

you in Denver Nuggets terms. Okay, let's say you think that the Nuggets are gonna win the championship this year and that the Nuggets are gonna play Boston in the finals. Okay, you think that that's what it's gonna be. You could just bet Denver over Boston for however much you want, or you could put a unit on each right now at these odds, and then what you can do is when the first one comes in, you can make a six hundred unit bet or whatever you want on the

actual game, on the series. So I think the opportunity to have an extra sixty six, five hundred dollars in my pocket headed into the Super Bowl to then fires some of that on the actual game, it has a real value to me. So don't listen here. Daniel's my guy and I love But there aren't many things that There aren't many things that will offend me. Accusing me of trying to hedge a bet will offend me. Listen as we months as we once upon a time almost

made the T shirt that said it. I don't even remember exactly what the T shirt said, but it was something along lines of I'm not hedging any bets. I'm a goddamn gambler. We're not hedging bets here. That came up the first time when the Chiefs Niners thing was happening. This is not a hedge. This is an opportunity to have more liquid economy. Oh, we have the T shirt right there. I'm seeing it. Hold on, let me see it. Can you guys put that screen full? I have it small,

let me see it. Hold on. Hedging is for cowards and stock traders. I'm a gambler. We still need you know one day we'll print those up. I mean, you guys did print them up, but I haven't figured out how to do a merch store, which is very ironic considering the fact that I literally do this show from a clothing store. I'm looking around. I'm like, I guess I literally am in a merch store. I'm just thinking

about it online. All right, We answered some listener questions and potentially do an F one minute next What's Right? All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Wright episode two fifty seven or Gambling Show? Uh Demanse's now had you know he's time or he hasn't yet a time. But to absorb all this wisdom of my thoughts, picks and whatever. On Thursday show, demonse, you will do your

five favorite season long bets. They can be division winners, they can be make miss playoffs, they can be team win anything. Any the world is your oysters. They would say on that they could be a super Bowl anything you want, but it will We'll keep it to five for simplicity's sake, So that'll be Thursday. On Thursday, I bet.

Speaker 3

On individual players like season like this person.

Speaker 2

They do those Those are very typically square markets and if you're going to bet on that, the only chance you really have is to have like seven or eight gambling apps and shop the lines, like because those individual player markets will vary wildly, you know what I mean. So it's like you will, Garrett Wilson, keep it yeah at one on some but just just so the audience knows. In some places, like if you're gonna do are we

still there? We've been rolling so good then I started moving around the In some places, if you're gonna do that, you really gotta shop it because it could be the like I'll try to think of an example, but it can some places will have Again, I'm just creating one out of thin air, Garrett Wilson. Have a thousand yards that might be minus one twenty on one website and plus two hundred on another. Like there's just so much variance.

But all right, before we get to the listener questions, Before we get to the listener questions, though it has been a while, I'll be totally honest to Monsey. I sent your cousin Sierra. Not passive aggressive, but a little bit of a Hey, spend like two weeks and I haven't got enough one minute. I don't know, like, hey, everything good, Like basically like, why are you not sent

me one? And she wrote me back, She's like, they're in their off season, Like, oh damn, I guess she was like she was like, they've been on the their summer break is what she called it. I was like, they get a summer break, and so uh and.

Speaker 3

And and.

Speaker 2

The F one minute with Sierra is back. So here's what we missed, and here's what's going on for the second half of the season.

Speaker 4

F one is back in town. It's officially the second half of the season. You know, summer break was cool that the teams got to visit their families, go on a yacht, swim, rock climb read. I don't know, but you know, the more important things in their life. The most important thing I should say is the racing career, obviously, right obviously, And before I mentioned the results of the Dutch Grand Prix that just happened last weekend, I want to cover two things that have been released since the

last time we've spoken. So number one, Carlos Science has officially signed with Williams for five and beyond. Now, this is important and I'm mentioning this because Lewis Hamilton has ultimately replaced him in Ferrari. So he's with Ferrari now. But next year they've chose Lewis Hamilton over him, and they kicked him to the side and said find a home basically. But he has found a home. His new home is with Williams for twenty two five and beyond, and his new partner is going to be Alex Alban.

But I do want to mention as a side note very quickly. I just mentioned the fact that Carlos was basically kicked to the curb and was forced to find a new seat. But in this situation, he is also kicking somebody else out and this person is Locan sergeant, and he's the only American on the grid. Now, this is a European sport, so think of this kind of like the Olympics, Right, I'm cheering for the American because I'm American. I want to see the American excel you know, USA,

you know, show him, you know America whatever. But the thing is, he kind of sucks. He has zero points, so it's kind of I mean, I'm sad to see him go because he's the out of twenty, he's the only American one.

Speaker 2

But like ah, he's no good.

Speaker 4

But anyways, that's beside the point. Second thing. Jack Dewan is also going to be on the grid for twenty twenty five. He was a reserve driver for the Alping team, but I guess he kind of got promoted. He got promoted to the big top dog seat, the real F one seat. Anyways, the Dutch Grand Prix F one is back, like I said, and we're back in style. Dare I say? Because the leader of this race led second place by

over twenty seconds. His lap time was a minute and thirteen seconds, So with that information you can kind of paint a picture of how sizeable this gap actually is. And leader of this race was not Max. You know, I know you thought it was him, but it's not him. Orlando Norris. Lando Norris won the Dutch Grand Prix with Max Verstappen coming in second and Charles l Kirk came in third. At Ferrari, I was very happy to see Charles,

not even Charles just a for on the podium. It's been so long they've been in a very dark, dark place. And now the discussion is whether we have a title match rivalry on our hands here, like does Lando Norris seriously have a shot of beating Max in the Ultimate Championship. Lando himself has actually said that this whole proposition is stupid, and you know, I have to agree only because in order for him to beat Max in the Dravas Championship, he would have to win every single race from this

point on, and honestly, I don't see that happening. But it is a good storyline. You know. It's fun to talk about, it's fun to speculate, it's fun to have the idea. But it it's not gonna happen. It's not gonna happen. But that's all I have time for. That's been here for a minute. I will talk to you guys on Thursday.

Speaker 2

Great one Sierra. Get us caught up on everything. By the way, part of my trip I was in Monte Carlo, which is kind of like the race car capital of the world, and there were we went to an F one museum. It's not even an F one museum, so it's just quick Monaco. Monte Carlo is a city in Monaco, but Monico is the tiniest, like the second smallest country in the world. It's like twenty kilometers and it just exists I think is I don't even Actually, I'll be honest.

People can google why it exists has to do with taxes and finances. The reason I want to say it is because I think one day I might want to live there, and I don't want them to be like you said it was. It was a beautiful it was. It was the most beautiful place I've ever been to in my life. And I have nothing bad to say about it. But when I said I went to a car racing museum, it's just the Prince's car collection, the Prince of Monico. It's just like, hey, here's my car

collection and people can come see it. Ah, but there are You can also rent old F one cars or at old timey looking F one cars to just drive on the road. Demanse at Casino Monte Carlo, where I was gambling. It was I'm not exaggerating. I'll send you some pictures or your mom probably posted them on Instagram. It was in a row one night. When I say it was the nicest cars in the world, this is I'm looking at it. This is the first four cars

in the parking area of Casino Monte Carlo. Lamborghini SUV, Lamborghini Suv, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Coop Bugotti, five cars, bang bang bang bang bang, and people just come to the casino in the Valet area just to take pictures. It was there was not a single car in the casino Valet. So I'll put it like this.

Speaker 3

You know the car I have, we have.

Speaker 2

There were two of those there, and they were clearly like the JV cars. It's like, oh, that's cute, like like oh, like you put time and thought and money into this, but like be serious, like the adult. Yeah, like I mean, that's what it was, and I've never seen anything like it. Uh Okay, Now to the listener questions, what is Nick? What's the best way to fade Deshaun Watson? If you believe in the Browns but not their quarterback, I would say those bets de mondot Deshaun Watson unders

you know what I mean? Those that would be the best way to do it. Why is everyone so low in Seattle? Nationally? Got the best defensive mine, the best defensive player in the draft, US row, a lot of talent, upgraded every coaching spot. I don't think everyone's down on Seattle, and I think that people don't like them as much as the Rams and the Niners, and it's tough. Is it gonna be a three division, three playoff team division?

I think people are worried about the offensive line. I think that's the biggest question, and I think a lot of people do I believe in Gino? Mostly? I think a lot of people just don't believe in Gino. Curtis Matthews, do you see this year's quarterback class going down as one of the best in history? Let's see him play a single game first, I get it four and two. What do you think? Who do you think will have the best season? Tony Pollard and Tennessee, Stefon Diggs in

Houston or Field Russ in Pittsburgh. I would take the unders across the board on that group of players, but I guess Diggs in Houston. I just don't know how much he's gonna be targeted. If you were to do head coaching tiers, where WARDI refluce sit. That's too long of a question to get into right now. Nick no Baker love the odds are the Bucks win? The NFC has to be up there. I just think Atlanta has built perfectly to win a division and lose their first

home playoff game. I just like, I kind of just want to bet on that exacta right now. Atlanta wins the NFC South plays the best wild card team, so probably the Niners, and gets rocked on the turf in their building. Like, I just think that's gonna happen. The producers are wondering if the Bills to lose in the division round plus four fifty as the exact stage elimination is a good bet. It's hit three years straight. I think I don't think it's.

Speaker 3

A good bet.

Speaker 2

I think the smart I think you would get better. I just think you would get better odds.

Speaker 3

On the Bills.

Speaker 2

Bet them to make the playoffs, take the money you make on that on them on the money line in their first playoff game, and then bet that on the money line in their second round. So you and sar what I mean? So like, I think that you would get accumulative better than four point fifty on that sequence rather than just betting it. Right now. Nathaniel says, Mahomes over under forty passing touchdowns. I love the over there. Scott Fraser says, Pat's under kamand they go one and

seven to start. Whoever starts and finished two games against the Bills. Man, it just as a general rule, betting the under on the worst team in the league is just a little square, like betting the under on the smallest number out there. I just don't love it. Timo Cruz says he's invested heavily in Nico Collins over nine hundred and seventy five yards. Just be careful investing heavily on any individual player prop because you're just one tweaked

hamstring of like, oh well, that BET's dead. That's also why, if you're actually betting player props, unders are smarter because you can hit it just because they don't you know, they were overvalued. You can also hit it like justin Jefferson last year averaged one hundred yards a game and hit under in everything because he missed six games. So like I listen, I'm not a player prop guy. I'm not a fancy guy. That's it, all right, demons, this

great show. This is awesome. I love this show every year. No Colin today because he's off. But go ahead, what were you about to say, pal.

Speaker 3

Let's win some money.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah, let's win some money. Do it also, But what I will tell you is in nine minutes, you can check out episode two of breakfast Ball with Craig cart and Mark Schlereth and my guy Danny Parkins. Episode one was super fun. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet, I'll be on the air in three hours. What's right? Hey, thanks for watching. If you're still here, do me a favor. Hit the subscribe button, then hit the bell so you can be notified when we have

new episodes. After you've done that, one more favor, go to your favorite audio platform of choice and subscribe there as well. Don't forget we're live every Tuesday and Thursday ten thirty am Eastern Ish ten thirty five, ten forty. It sometimes changes, but that's why you hit the bell. You hit the bell so you're notified. You subscribe so we can get to two hundred thousand followers. We're right around one hundred and fifty thousand. We'd love to get

to two hundred thousand. Get demanday another plaque, so like, subscribe, rate, send a rating too, do all that cool stuff. Thanks guys,

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