When the Fever Breaks

But our guests this week did exactly that with a core mutual fund he co manages, ranking it in the top two or three percent of pure funds. It is a different story, and the market is off to an ugly start to the year, So we're gonna find out what a winning fund manager does at a time of turbulence like this. But philled out Before we get to that, I gotta say, um, my teenage daughters have a new favorite word in that That word is suss. Are you Are you familiar with that word suss like suss out? No,

it's suss. I think it's like suspicious. No, I'm not, I'm not familiar with it. What is it? Well, I gotta say, uh, your a little suss to me, and I'll tell you why. You want to know why? Yeah, I do. You're from Trenton, right near the border of Pennsylvania, less than an hour from Philadelphia. You should be an Eagles fan and should be somehow you're a Buffalo Bills fan. That's that's sussed to me. I see, okay, now makes sense. I am. I've been to Eagles games, so forgive me

because I know you like the Eagles. Admit you admit to be in suss Yeah, I admit to it. But it's so easy to like the Bills because they've been so great this year, and they have another game coming up this weekend, and if any of them are listening, I really need them to be at their very best. So all the Buffalo Bills out there, don't eat pizza the night before, go to sleep early. I have a little Josh Allen statue that we like. No pizza for them, No, no, no, no,

I need them to be tip top shape. How about buffalo wings? Can they eat buffalo wings as long as it doesn't give them heartburn? All right? Well, I gotta say this, This market this year has given a lot of heartburn left and right, and uh, hopefully our guest has had his tumbs. Let's let's see what he has to say about this ugly starts of the year. Yeah. I want to welcome back Andrew Slimmon. He is a

senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. And Andrew, I want to thank you for coming back on the show again. Thanks for having me. And I did go to University of Pennsylvania, so I spent a few daimes going to see the Eagles play. That's good. That's that's why we like him here. I know we already got you're making Mike's hearts, already got his cheese steak recommendation too. I think last time and it was it was Abner's right,

is alright? You have a good memory, I'd say, well for for certain things like cheese steaks. You know you gotta see the important things. Well, Andrew, I know you you had said recently that two is going to be a tug of war between two things. One is the removal of fed accommodation, which is parished, and then continued strength of the economy as earnings continued to surprise to the upside. It's been a few months since the last

time you were on the show. So I was hoping you could walk us through what you're anticipating for this year and tell us whether or not the first few weeks of the year are going to be a bit emblematic of what's to come, because that's something I hear a lot from people, and that you know, we've seen this choppiness and it's something we can continue to see

throughout the year. Yeah, So I always cringe when I hear someone say, hey, I think the market is going to be a you know, kind of five to ten because on the surface, that's like it's reasonable, but it's optimistic, so it's like it checks all the nice little pretty boxes, right. So five. The reality is, if you go back to nineteen since nine, there's only been all eleven times the market has been up zero to ten percent, So it's rare, very rare, even though more times enough people kind of

predict single digit, high single digit returns. So I'm all, like, I'm squeamish even saying that. But having said that, now I'm going to counterdict. I felt there seems to be precedent for this type of return in this year, and you know, if you go back to last year two thousand and twenty one last year, the return was very consistent with what I would call the second year coming

out of a bear market low. So if twenty was the first year and we had a very strong year off below, if you look at that second year, whether it was last year or two thousand ten or two thousand three or those years are always very very strong. And I think there's two and I'm getting to your question. There's two reasons for that. Number One is, obviously you have very accommodative FED policy because they're still in the mode of trying to fix the problem that caused the recession,

so you have very commonive FED policy. But then you also have a combination of a situation where corporate earnings are very strong because corporations tighten their belt cut expenses into recession. So you have this big explosion in margins to the upside and earnings growth, and Wall Street unfortunately gets too pessimistic during recession, so they're kind of behind

the curve and so they have to revise up. And so that's the whole story of last year, is that the stock market was up as much as earnings revisions, so to the extent that we had a very good

year we followed earnings revisions. Now when you move into getting to this this year, then if last year was so consistent, then what what kind of happens in the third year after a you know, kind of that low and in the third year, whether it was ninety two, two thousand four, two thousand eleven, you see these kind of this single digit type returns. They're not negative, but they're not better than that, because, as you said with Donna, you have a battle. The battle is is that you

continue to have strong earnings and revisions. And I think corporate bounciets are very strong. Consumer bounciets are very strong. So I'm very confident in this this continued strong corporate fundamentals. But the Fed's not as much as your friend. And so i'd like to say the FEDS pivoting from they're not your enemy, but they're not their friend. You're they're not your friend anymore, they're more your acquaintance. And so that's kind of the battle, and that's why you get

kind of single digit returns. The other thing that is consistent is that we're going into a mid term election year, and if you look at the four year election cycle, the mid term year is a single digit year. So this leads me to believe that it's a you know, it's gonna be okay year. But the problem is the problem is, I mean, how many days in the market's open, you know what, two fifty plus days a year. In

any one day, it could swing one or two. But you know, that's a lot of volatility around a single digit year. And so we're not gonna We're gonna be too far above it and too far behind behind that. I just think when we get to December thirty one, if we're talking on December thirty one, it's gonna be like, Wow,

it wasn't as bad as it felt at times. I just and that, And so so that leads me to say, don't get too optimistic when things are really good, and don't get too pessimistic when things are kind of bad. Right now, I'm not sure it's real bad yet, but

we're you know, we're down a little bit. Yeah, you know, Andre uh, you know, Danna mentioned the sort of the talking points you said to us, and I want to seize on one a little bit too, because I think it really gets to the heart of what's on a lot of people's minds, right now, and I'm just gonna quote what you wrote to us. He said, avoid the temptation to step in and buy into the sell off in high growth stocks. And you say, my experience is once the fever breaks, it's done for quite a while.

And you know, boy, the fever shure has broken, uh, you know, in that space. But I want to I want to dissect that that statement in a few different ways, if if Phildonna will indulge me some follow ups, I won't hit you with eight questions at once, but the first one being, you know, historically, are there any sort of precedence you could point to? Who I mean, is it too simple to point at the dot Com deflation of that bubble as as something to expect in the

high growth area this year? Or is that sort of you know, a fair comparison, if not quite the peak to trough type of of dip that we saw, uh something perhaps that long and that sort of dramatic uh where with you know, you know, the high growth stocks really just get taken as the woodshed for longer than anyone really saw coming. Yeah. So first of all, I just want to make sure it's understood I'm not a

value manager or a growth manager. So I got No, I'm not trying to you know, spin you know, kind of what works or where my my investment philosophy at all times. I'm just I'm just looking at what the

fat pitches and as it pertains this group. The reason why I believe once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time is if you wind the clock back, you know, if you look at some of these uber growth funds, they're back to where they were in early fall of two thousand twenty, and that means a lot of people haven't made money, right because they chased into them after

they peaked. And the reason why the dot com anal g is correct is that that means that every time they start to go up, there's someone that can get out even and so there's tremendous selling resistance at higher levels because so many people have lost money. And that to me is very similar to you know, the dot com bubble, but other bubbles, is that once a very speculative bubble breaks, it doesn't it's not a v bottom because there's too many people looking to get out and

want to get out. So I think that that's you know, that's that's the point. There is that I and you said, well, maybe not analogous because it hasn't gone down as much. And I would say yet, but now at what cohort would you look at? You? I mean, could you see the NASTAC one hundred going going down as much as it? Then we're more like catty Wood type of fund, uh something. I think there's a yeah, that's the big difference to

two thousand. In two thousand, the NASDACK was trading at you know, you had you had obscene prices, but you also had some of these very big cap tech stocks. They're trading at triple digit multiples. And when I look at these uber bro stocks, they're as expensive as they were in two thousands. But the megacap tech stocks, the Nasdaq one hundred, the big stocks, they're not as expensive. So I I don't think the you know, the NAZAC break up two thousand is quite accurate because I don't

think the really big tech stocks are as vulnerable. They're multiples are not you know, not as expensive. So I don't think you'll see you know, those stocks, you know, they're not as vulnerable. Once the guy we stink along these lines though, is that there's something in human nature. I think that is always going to make that instinct to chase the high flyers come back at some point. Uh, you agree, right, as simple as that, But is there?

I mean, what would the conditions you would look for to be in place to sort of bring that trade back, you know, whether it be the sort of high flyers of the past couple of years or whatever. We're on two by the time that that sentiment comes back, is it is as simple as sort of a economic growth

normalization and or and or the FED being done tightening. Uh, we'll take more than that, you think, Well, I think it's first selling exhaustion, where stocks stop going down on bad news because there's no one left about them, right, there's no one left to sell them. And I'm just not sure we're there yet. I don't. I haven't seen big capitulation. I mean, the stocks are down a lot, but but there hasn't been big capitulation these socks. And

I get too many people like. The other way I think about it, Mike, is when no one believes that they can buy the dip anymore. That's when the bottom happens. Right when people say I don't want to touch them. You know, these are these are these are you know, uninvestable. That's what I get interested. But when people are just saying, hey, what do you think? You know, because the memory of making a lot of money is too recent, and that leads people to try to bottom fish. And so I've

been in this business a long time. Human behavior doesn't change. And so always when you when this type of bubble breaks, you get counter trend rallies and they go up a little bit and then they go down low, and then they go up and then they go down and tell people say, don't ask me any more thing more about it. I don't want to talk about it. I'm moving on. And then I got, oh, that's kind of interesting. That means maybe they're they're getting to a bottom. So I

think that's the first thing. And yeah, when the FED pivots the way we're there, pivoting grows stocks don't do as well. The FED is moving off ultra accomminative and grows stocks in general, you know, struggle, And so I think that also is an issue. Um, could could the FED take a breather? I think we've gone from no one believing rates to go up in inflation to now inflation and higher rates seems to be consensus, which leads me to believe, well, maybe later this year the FED

will pause and maybe gross stocks will come back. I'm just not sure these these high, very high octane gross socks will will come back, but I wouldn't be surprised as some of the you know, these NAZAC hundred stocks, they could come back to life if in fact the FED pauses. I wasn't sure if I can jump in

with a question of Mike had ten more. But Mike did mention at the top of the show that one of your funds was up year, and I think everybody at home is just wondering what exactly you might be favoring this year, what you might recommend to them, and where they should be and how they should be positioning as the year unfolds. So the reason why we had a good year last year is simply that we played

the playbook. The playbook is is that when you're coming out of recessions, cyclical stocks do well, right because in recessions, people you know, sell anything that's economically sensitive and they hold on the things that they perceive is not economically sensors. So the spread between the cyclical stocks and the non cyclical stocks gets extreme and boil boy, did it really get extreme? Allah all our conversations so far by the

second half of two thousand twenty. So it was kind of a fat pitch to own, you know, kind of financials in energy stocks. This you know in two thousand, in in twenty one, and so that, you know work. The other thing that really worked is just listening to company and follow earnings. Now, just to be clear, earnings growth doesn't drive stock prices, it's surprises, right. A stock

price embeds all future expectations. So if companies are doing better than what is expected, they go up, and if they if they don't, then they're not doing as well, they go down, you know. And that's a very simple rule. But so I believe in okay, company reports, what is what was there the outlook? Did they exceeded or beat it? And I don't mean just quarter lits quarter because that's

too short term, but over time. And so I think that that really work last year, and I think it'll work this year as well, And so I think we're into an environment So going into this year, I think we're an environment where central bank policy is willing to accept higher levels of inflation for faster growth that will lead to more age growth. Now, right now, the FED is starting to pivot a little bit because real wages

aren't going up. Real wages so after you know, that's after inflation, So I think they're gonna make a move to kind of bring down inflation. But I think we're moving into an environment we're gonna have higher growth at the expense of higher inflation, and that's an environment where

you want to own some value stacks. Again, I'm not saying throw away all your growth socks and buy all value, because I believe in technology long term, but I do think that we're we've come out of a decade of slow growth and we're moving into a faster growth environment, and I think you want to own a few more value socks. And I don't think this year will be any different than last year. Andrew, you sent us a list of a couple of stocks that you really like,

and I think it was Google, Microsoft, and Danahert. I was wondering if you could maybe walk us through why you like these picks in particular. Yeah, our biggest overweights are financials, reads, and energy stocks. The however of that is those stocks are red hot right now. They're really hot. Their financials and energy have done really well this year. So I think we're into an environment where you have to be careful going into earning season, given how strong

they've been. And so I'm just a little bit wary of owning those stocks, you know, or or or buying those stocks right here. And again, those growth stocks haven't done as well. Microsoft, Google Data they have done as well because they're not the hot stocks right now, and those companies are reporting very good earnings. Yeah, and I wanted to ask you also about sort of the other debate that always comes up this time of years, you know,

US versus the rest of the world. Correct me if I'm being too simplistic about this, but you know, you say, you're not a value where a growth guy. I tend to think of the US market is relatively a growth index, as a is more of a growth index. The rest of the world as more of a value index, which you know, and perhaps more of a cyclical index too, you know. Is that too simplistic to think about it, or is you know, and especially to make the leap to think that rest of the world might outperform the

US this year. No, I think well, as it pertains to Europe and Japan, You're dead on right, Mike. They are more cyclical in nature. So to make a big allocation to those markets, you have to believe that they are cyclically economically going to see real acceleration, or at my juncture, I think about in terms of our cyclical stocks in Europe going to be a better investment than you know, cyclical value stocks in the US. And I've always come back to the fact that I'd rather own

banks in the US than in Europe. I'd rather own industrial socks in the U in US than in Europe. So that's always led me to have a little bit more of a US bias globally. Now having said that, that's not the case in Asia. Okay, Asia, ex Japan. You've got a lot of growth stocks e m did not do well last year, right, and it's because of China, It's because of the dollar, and I think some of that might actually reverse this year. So I think growth stocks in Asia might be the big winners this year.

So it's not just but your right to accept the Europe and Japan are cyclical in nature. Well, I think what he's saying is European banks are susus. I'll have to incorporate that one into my Dy've long been sus that their sus since I've proven otherwise, I think probably Mike, you and I aren't cool enough to make that word. I know I'm trying. I'm trying hard, but yeah, I can tell well I and I'll say this without listing names, but whenever it as well. I like Europe more than US.

I said it, would you sell your US bank and buy, you know, a French bank or are you gonna sell your U s acid management firm? And bias with I'm just not you know when it let's send me the personal trade confirmation when I've done that in your personal account, And I think because I just think it sounds really great at the high level, but I'm not a strategis I have a portfolio manager. I'd have to actually pull the trigger and do that, and I just think that's

tough to do. Yeah. Yeah, when you can't find the actual names execute a theme on, I guess is the you know it's the problem. And angel what about the small cap space because another bank earlier this week actually gave up their call on small caps all performing. I was looking at the Russell two thousand, it's down something like seven. A bunch of the names in the Russell two thousand are down like thirty forty or more. So I'm wondering what you make of the small cap space,

you know looks. First of all, I'm not you know, my benchmarks are SMP and mc I world, So I'm not a small cap manager. I'm not the right person to ask about that, and I don't. We don't delve into that, not only because it's the off benchmark, but also, and this gets more you know, philosophical. I don't have a problem with passive investing. I really don't, because my response is, hey, if you want to get market exposure, go for it. But what I have a real problem

with is active management that owns lots of stocks. So I am a believer in a limited number of stocks if you're going to hire active managers. So I that's the other reason I don't own small caps is just it's risky to own, you know, twenty thirty stocks and have small caps in your portfolio. So that's that's the reason why I avoid it. But that kind of carnage

leads me to believe that that's attractive. But you know, I still think US value is going to outperform that because I think these companies are doing very very well, and so that would be my top pick, and then my second pick would be emerging markets. You know, I try. I know you're bullish on Microsoft. I think you have it in both the international and the and the US core fund um. Curious what you think of this activision takeover this week and does it does that signal to

you sort of more to come? This kind of you know, magic word the metaverse people keep throwing around. Is that going to be kind of a Bolton acquisition source for some of these bigger tech firms? Do you think? Or is this a kind of a one and done for Microsoft. I think it's a sign that companies are flush with cash, and I think it's a sign that they got a lot of cash. Which, oh, by the way, what's the

rre we on cash right now? Zero? You're lucky, right, So I think it's going to be a I'm no investment banker, but I think it's going to be a big year for M and A because companies have very strong balance sheets and they got a lot of cash on hand, and they're gonna be you know, looking for you know, Bolton acquisitions. So to the extent that you know things are immediately a creative, I think you're gonna

see companies, companies jump on it. So and I know that's a you know, not a lot of people talk about that, but you know, I really think that the story is that corporate fundamentals are not getting the press they desire. If I really do. We talk about the fattle ode and kind of you know, kind of geopolitical risk, but to a certain extent, I just don't think, you know, what's happening in corporate America gets enough you know, positive press,

because I think it's it's definitely out there. Well, speaking of what's happening in corporate America, we did have the banks kicking off the the earning season this week, and well, on big theme was that a lot of the more reporting wage pressures, and I wanted to ask you if you're watching that as well. We had Gina Martin Adams on last week and she spoke about the risk to margins and so I'm just wondering how big of a

risk you think that is too Margins. Yeah, Well, first of all, you know, keep in mind those stocks did great they were red hot. As I said, they were red hot going into earnings. So I'm always I'm always really worried about companies when they're too hot, because a little piece of you know, people will pick up on disappointed news if they're too strong. And so that's I think the story of some of the banks. And yeah, there are some wage pressures, but not all banks. I

would be a little bit careful there. And the the other thing I think is really important to consider is that rising costs can be offset. Maybe maybe banks aren't a good example, but rising costs can be offset by rising prices as long as demands drawing. Rising costs can be offset by better pricing as large as demand store and so far, I think, you know, the people are willing to pay more, and so I think that that is going to be the story. That's something definitely to watch.

As long as demand stay strong, I think companies are gonna offset higher wages, higher costs with rising prices. Andrew, one thing I wanted to ask uh, and I think I might have asked this of you less time you were on, but I'd be great to get an update on your thinking, is uh, you know, as a core fund manager, like you said, a fund that's not holding hundreds of stocks maybe hold twenty or a few or

something like that. In this environment, are you, you know, rolling over position changing positions more than you would otherwise? Are you dumping and buying new positions? Because I think of a core manager is kind of a buy and hold type of manager. You know, you're looking for something that's gonna perform for several years rather than several months. But you know, with COVID rush in the economy and then coming roaring back, I feel like technically you must

be more nimble these days and perhaps past years. Um is that true? And does that normalize that at some point? I don't think last year you had to be very tactical. Yeah, if the market's up, does it really pay actical, you know, And so we let our positions run last year. And the other thing is taking a little more I mean, I know this is perverse, but taking a little more risk early in bowl markets pays. And that's perverse because usually people want to you know, they're so worried about

what's already happened. They want less risk, right, But it pays to actually take a little bit more risk early on this year I think you're I think you're right. I think it's gonna require a little bit more tactical moves.

If I need to generate alpha, right, I need to generate excess return because that's why you pay for active management because in it, again going back to what I said, in an environment of lower returns, I think there's gonna be more volatility around that lower return thesis, and I want to be a little bit more tactical. So it means right now, I think the financials and the energy stocks, as I said, are a little hot going into earnings. Maybe financials have started cool and so maybe we trend

back a little bit on some of the energies. I mean, they're up a lot, right even though maybe you know for the year, we're still bullish on that area. They've

run too far ahead of the market year today. So I again, I think it's I think this year is gonna require a little bit more tactical and recognizing, boy, these stocks have done very well better than you know, better than than they probably will for the you so mean reversion is another it's a fancy a saying tactical, and I think it's it's going to require a little bit more, and so from an investors standpoint, it means trimming back winners and you know, being willing to buy

a little bit more into some of your you know, losers. And so going back to the list of stocks are listed, those are all good companies. They're reporting good earnings and they haven't done very well this year, so that those are the socks you want to buy whenever the fundamentals and the stock prices diverged. I'm interested in that, you know, and trying to know you're you're also a little bullsh on China. You're saying your notes, so you think surprise,

China will surprise. Not a good year. I mean I was looking at and I forgive me for not remembering what bank put this note out, but it's by China is either out on the top of the list of returns for the year globally or the bottom. It seems like almost every years. Is that part of it just such a lousy year last year? Or is it the the idea of stimulus coming? What's what's making you, uh,

sort of take a look at China. Yes, So, I mean if I showed you one of those you know, kind of heat maps of what did well and what you know, the best to worth performing assets every year and you saw child and go, oh my god. Every time it's bad, I want to invest right. And so it just had a really bad year, and it had a really bad year in two fifteen, really bad year in two thousand, so and then it does well. So you know, I've learned this business that when people say

something is uninvestable, that gets me interesting. And I hear a lot of it's uninvestable right now. Um, that's number one. Number two is you you're right, you have There is one large central bank in the world that is not moving more restrictive, it's moving more dubbish, and that's China. So you have that number two. The third reason is the dollar. Okay, the dollar went up a lot last year and that really weighed on emerging markets, including China.

Now on the surfaces, you'd say, well, the Feds, you know, you know, my hike rates. How can the dollar not go up again? Well, actually, the dollar tends to rally in front of Fed pivotic and so it's kind of starting to run out of steam here and that could

take some relief off emerging markets. And then the last reason is and this gets two more stock selection is you know, as I said, look, I'm in different between value growth and where in the world, but I'm always interested in what are great companies that have compounded at very high rates over time, and then which ones haven't done well recently? And then let's really bore in and figure out is something changed at the company and they can't resume their you know, what they've done the past,

or is it temporary. And when we run screens on companies that compounded very high rates that have not done well recently, it leads us back to Asia extrapan of which China is one of them. So that's that's, that's those are the reasons. Tiden up your straight jackets. It's time for the craziest things we saw in markets this week? All right, Phil Dona, I think it is that time, the ever so important time of the craziest things we saw. What's the craziest thing you saw this week? I actually

didn't see very many, many many. As usual, especially in the crypto space, you tend to see a lot of really crazy stuff. But one of the weirdest things I saw was that Airbnb CEO. I don't know if you saw this story but he announced that he's going to be living in Airbnb rentals going forward. He's going to be staying in a different town or city every couple of weeks, and it just, you know, it just brought up questions like, how how do you govern as a CEO?

He's jumping around from place to place and it reminds me of the time when Jack Dorsey had said he was going to move to Africa and that created I think it was a couple of years ago that created a backlash. And so that was one of the stranger things I saw that was pretty good. I did not see that one. That's uh wait, I don't know. I talked about living the life of a of a nomad. Right, yeah, how about you, Andrew, you see anything crazy this week? Well it may not be this week, but it's certainly,

you know, year to date. And I don't have any answer for this. Maybe you do, but I don't. And that is this. When I look at the present Bulls to Bears, it's barely positive and time, in fact, it's sometimes negative. When I look at the VIX, the vaultility Inex, it's still very elevated, right when consumer confidence is kind of low, right, when I talked to financial advisors, they say to me, are clients are fearful of being invested? They have foe b fear of being in right? They

want out right. And the reason why I find that bizarre is because, well, I should say it's logical because the markets up three years in a row. So on, on the surface, you'd say, well, that's entire logical, No wonder people are nervous because the market's up so much. But the weird thing is that's not how humans act. Humans don't get less. It's the fear degreed cycle. And so how is it that we're up three years in a row of over tw and people are suddenly acting

very logical? That's very that's weird. It shouldn't happen that way, And it makes me wonder maybe fomo. We're gonna go from foe by fear of being into fomo, which is fear of missing out. That's how bowl markets d with fomo, right, right. I just I to think it's weird that the market has been so strong and yet the anxiety level is so high, very unusual. Right. The rational behavior is the craziest thing. I take that. Yeah, that's a great way I agree, that's pretty good. Two good ones here, two

good ones here. I'll give you my now the Donna. I've had an issue because whenever I try to play prices right with my craziest things, you've already read every story that's been printed for the week, regardless of publications, so it complicates things. So I've got three crazy things in the alternative space, and we're gonna play prices right. See which one you guys think is the highest priced. And as you might guess, there are auctions in the

collectibles and other assorted weird market space. So I'm gonna give you three things. One of what already went up for auction, two of what you're going for auctionus you too, tell me what you think has the highest they're already sold auction price, were expected at auction price. First one a five hundred and fifty five point five five carrot black diamond. I didn't even know there was black diamonds. Apparently they exist, five d and fifty carrots, called the Enigma.

It's going up for auction next month at Southby's in London. You forgot to mention. I think that the claim is that that diamond is from outer space. I was getting to that you, I was getting to it. Yes, you've taken all the all the feather away from me. Yes, you might ask yourself, where does the black diamond come from? Well they say it either emerged from a diamond bearing asteroid that collided with Earth, were created by a meteor's

impact with your anyway, pretty bizarre. Five fifty point five five carrot black diamond. Second item. Now, we're used to seeing Spider Man in a red suit, but apparently every now and then he puts in ah, it wears a black suit. So the first ever book. And I'm not a comic book guy, I I might get some of this wrong, but first time you ever where black suit was in a night comic book. The original artwork is

up for auction of the Black Spider Man Suit. That's number two third, one of the earliest contemporary broadside editions of the Declaration of Independence, is going to go on sale later this year, likely the first edition printed in New England. Only six copies are known to exist for belonging university collections or museums collections. Christie's putting this up

for auction next month. So Andrew and Voldonna, you've got a five and fifty five point five five carrot black diamond, your first drawing of Spider Man in a black suit. We're one of the first earliest known editions of the Declaration of Independence. I would also say that matches the exact type setting used in the addition printed in the sixteen seventeen seventy six issue of the American Gazette. If that helps you at all, well, do you go first?

Which one you thanks going for the most? The rational answer would be C I think, but I'm not going to go with that because of what we were just talking about how everybody is still a little bit irrational. So I'm going to go with the diamond because of the fun factor. It's god knows from where, from Mars or Jupiter or something. We can create a really fun story around it. I'm going with the diamonds. All right, that's that's well reasoned. Well, give me your your expected

price for the diamond as a tiebreaker. Actually, wait, let's see what Andrew says, and then we'll then we'll ask for the price as a tiebreaker if he if he agrees with it, well, I mean, I think vell data, that's a logical, rational answer, you know, the Spider Man in the black Suits scene so irrational that it makes me believe probably you know that, which also a well

reasoned answer, very well reasoned. I would have gone with the diamond personally, I would think of fifty five carrots, some someone's gonna want to put that on a necklace. I liked the rationale for both of these. But again, this is the craziest things where rationality goes up the window. It was actually the Declaration of Independence expected to go for twelve eighteen million. The diamonds only expected to go

for six eight million. I I don't get that surprises me. Yeah, for five fifty carrots, I mean from out of space. I will not I will not tell you what I spent on my wife's engagement ring. But let's just say that not in that league. And as Spider Man, that's a wild card there. You're right, Andrew, because you know, you get some comic book nerd. You know who's who's made a fortune on crypto and uh. But here's the craziest thing out of all of it. The new Spider

Man movie. What's it called? I forget what it's called. Already, Spider Man, you can't go home or something like up anyway. You know what, that's grossed already in the box office one and a half billion dollars. It's only enough for a few weeks. It's already brought in one and a half billion dollars. I find that I have teenage daughters also, Mike, and they all all right, they've all seen it. Yeah. My my youngest is a big comic book fans too. It's funny the young girls are into the Marvel and

the d c uh. Who would have who would have figured one and a half billion dollars for a Spiderman movie already? And that's before it even really hits the Maybe it's already hit video. I don't know. They released these things together at the same time, but what the check backs. I think that Diamond's gonna go for more than they expect. With that said, Edrew, always a great time to catch ups. You really appreciate your insights. I think we're all adjusting our chin straps for wild years.

We'll have to bring you back sometime to see how it's going. I look forward to it. Thank you for coming back, all right, take care what goes up? Will be back next week. Until then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website and app, or wherever you get your podcasts. We love it if you took the time to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can find us on Twitter. Follow me at ring Anonymous. Wildonta Hirich

is at Fildonta Hirich. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts and thank you to Charlie Pellet to Bloomberg Radio. What Goes Up is produced by Laura Carlson. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesco lev Thanks for listening. To see you next time. Two