TINA's Dead and Bonds Are Back

does having store? We'll get into it with the head of investment strategy for the America's at a big investment firm, who is kind enough to break out her crystal ball fore. I hope she has a crystal balls Okay, you know how about you, Baldonna. It's very It's that time of year to get very reflective. Uh do your year end evaluation? Have you yourself evaluation? Of course? I look so highly

of myself. You did, I would say if they were to ask me for some input for that, I would be mostly positive, but I would have to say, um when it comes to our game show. Uh. In the Craziest Thing segment of the podcast, the prices, precise performance has been a little lot less. It's been a little three or four times. I think I should go back and keep tracking how many times I've one. I have one more time than you have. Well, not in the

host I win every time. That's not fair. But the good news is, I feel like it's kind of been my fault that the the topics have been out of your wheelhouse. So just to boost your yearine performance, I've got one that's squarely in your wheelhouse this week, just for you. Is it about Taylor Swift? Is that yours? Yeah? All right, and I hear I guess has something really great prepared for craziest things in markets, So I do

want to bring her in. It's Gargi Chadry. She's head of Ice Shares Investment Strategy America's and I'm so happy that she's joining us today. Thanks so much for coming on the show. Gargi. Hi guys, it's so great to be here. Thank you Mike and Lodanna for having me. Yeah, thanks so much for joining us. And maybe just to start out, you can tell us about your role at black Rock and what it entails. Sure, of course, so

um I run a team of investment strategists. The what that means in um plain English language is we tell our clients who invest with a share as E t F S how to think about the market. So, you know, obviously you guys were talking about what a historic here this has been, but what does that mean? Where does that create opportunities? And what is the macro environment telling us? You know, taking everything the data, the policy, the geopolitics

and turning that into investable themes with shas ETF. So that's what my team and I do. And then also we try to get a sense of how people are position what are the flows telling us, Is there an area of the market that flows should have gone to and didn't. So a lot of macro research, implementation ideas and research. Yeah, yeah, Gargy, We very much look forward

to getting your outlook for three. But even in the more near term point, we have a big week ahead of US next week Federal Reserve meeting, uh CPI data. You know, I think everyone is sort of has their fingers crossed under the assumption that the Federal downshift its rate hikes to fifty basis points. What are you expecting for next weekend? Is there anything you're worried about surprising uh in either the CPI or the or the FED decision. I love that question, thank you. So I think next

week will probably be all about inflation. I know we wanted to be about the Fed, but I think it will be about inflation. As of right now, the market is expecting again one more week ish CPI print, So think about perhaps a point three on core I think

anything that looks higher than that. So if we get another point four or even a strong point three with a strong core X shelter, so remember now the market will be extremely focused on that core X shelter piece because Chair Powell has brought that up and now we're going to be just uniformly focused on that one line item. And I think if we get a stronger than expected number on that core X shelter, I think that could

negatively impact risk sentiment. So I think, uh, you know, inflation is something that I've focused on my whole career, so I'm kind of excited to to deep dive into that data. And then with the Fed, I think a fifty basis point is baked in. I think a Chair Power told us as much at the Brookings. But more important than that, fifty basis points is actually how they

project their SEP forecast. So what are they telling us about the path of policy for the next two years, How are they guiding us about inflation, So really breaking down the SEP forecast for next day, I think that's going to be really important. And also how Chair Powell is perceived from a hawkish perspective. Again, remember the market at first breathed a huge sigh of relief at least after November thirty year that he didn't push back on

the easing of financial conditions. So is Chair Powell going to be a little bit more hawkish this time around at the December meeting. I don't think so, But I think that's what the market is going to focus on. To what extent does he talk about uh, double sided risks versus to what extent does he talk just about you know, more needs to be done. So that's what I'll be looking at. And I know you have these different themes that you laid out in your year head look,

and I want to get to those. But just while we're talking about the FED, another thing you had said in your outlook is that FED easing is unlikely in because inflation will keep persistently. Yeah, yeah, that's actually really one of the core themes as we think about the market for the next day. This idea that we're already pricing in some cuts for the end of three I think is a little bit optimistic. I think the FED

has told us again and again. Now whether the market wants to believe it or not, but the Fed has told us again and again that they are looking to keep rates higher for longer. That's what they want, and our viewers at least that both core CPI and PC inflation, which as we know the FED looks at, you know, their preferred measure to look at PC, both of those

will stay significantly about the two percent target. And in a world where unemployment is still, you know, at this juncture much below four percent, it's at three point seven percent and looking ahead probably still remains much below their assumption of Nehru, I think it's a little too optimistic to expect meaningful eases three. I think we get to five,

maybe five and a quarter, and then just stop. We let the monetary policy and its lagged effects work um and you know, the market prices that in sometimes and then comes all the way back and then the FED pushes back and they price that that in and then come all the way back. So I think there's a little bit of that tug tug of war with the markets and the pricing of policy for the remainder of

the year. But I doubt that they are going to cut fifty or so basis points before the you know, maybe in four but I doubt that will happen this year. Maybe one at the end of the year, but no more than that. Well, it's a great point. You know, we've all been conditioned to sort of assume that FED policy is joined at the hip to that two inflation target. But is there sort of you know, some space between those now where you know, the FED may no longer

think of two as mission accomplished. You know, if they get that PC or core pc actually below the level of the FED funds rate, but higher than is that sort of mission accomplished for them, do you think? So? You know, there's this view in the markets that a few a few of the a few people have spoken about, and I believe I heard this um in one of your other podcasts as well, that you know, the FED may revise up their target to something significantly above two.

I don't think that will happen. I don't think they're going to revise it meaningfully higher. And I think, you know, every time the chair gets asked about their flexible average and facion targeting their faith policy, remember how much we obsessed about that in the pre pandemic era when inflation was below two percent UM. So I don't think they'll revise it how higher. However, what I think will happen is that even before inflation gets back to below two percent,

the Fed will pause on their rate hiking path. They will do that because they will have seen significant improvement on the path of policy. So we you know, just this next month's CPI print, which will come out next week, I think we'll already see headline CPI coming down to a seven handle, So that's significantly lower than the nine is percent that we saw. Core inflation will probably come down to just about six maybe, I mean, if we're lucky, maybe a five point nine, but just about six, I think.

And then as we look towards you know, May of next day, I think it's likely that we could see sort of a high three, like up three point seven or so. So it's a lot of progress from where we come from. But it's not the two percent that they're looking for, and I think they have to be okay with that as long as the direction of travel is in the right direction. So if the direction of travel, especially on a core x of shelter, is in the right direction, I think they will definitely be okay to pause,

but not easy. And then let's talk a little bit more about what you're seeing. Because in your side for next year, you say that the investing regime we have long known has changed, and then you lay out your themes. So maybe you can just walk us through your thinking. Sure, thank you for bringing up the investment Investment Guide. So we published that last week November three year. It is

our themes for twenty three and I think it's particularly exciting. Well, I would think so because my team and I, you know, spend a lot of time and effort on this. But I think it's particularly exciting thinking about twenty three now because of the rough year two was like no doubt unless you were in cash, and if you were privileged enough to be in cash, um, if you were in

any other part of the market. I guess outside of energy, you've had a really tough go at it and I think while we sort of swallow that, it has also created this incredible opportunity for the year ahead. And and nowhere is that more prevalent than in the fixed income markets.

And we spend a lot of the report actually talking about that, but broadly, you know, as you lay Abradana, one of the things that we we start off talking about is how this next six to twelve months and you know, we're not looking past that, but at least the next one six to twelve months is going to be very different than the previous regime of a very accommodative central bank that is poised to cut rates at

any hint of an economic slowdown. And I think we are now grappling with a central bank, or for that matter, we're grappling with a capital market where interest rates are higher for longer, and that is the new normal. It is not the lower for normal, lower for longer that we have gotten used to, which of course, you know, had its own ramifications on where in the equity market you want to invest or what that means for returns

and fixed income. I think understanding that for the near term, with inflation remaining above the FED style, get that rates are going to stay high and where you should allegate too is really profound, and that's what we're focused on on the investor guy. So how do are we thinking about sort of the growth versus value trade in that scenario? Um?

You know, is is it time to keep in that value and and sort of everything but tecking growth basket going in absolutely, Mike, that's actually our you know, second theme our first team, which I'm hopeful that we'll talk a little bit more about, is the role of bonds in a portfolio and how it's significantly shifted UH this

year and will be much more meaningful in three. But second theme is around this idea that you know, whenever I'm talking to clients and they're looking to hear our views on the equity market, they always want to know around you know, when should I get back into the growth trade? And historically, obviously, you know, when we've gone into slow down periods where we've either been forecasting a recession or we've been in a recession, growth has obviously

led the way. But that's been because that's always the time when the FED steps in and cuts rates meaningfully, sometimes even bringing real rates to negative territory. And that has been very very beneficial for the growth part of

the equity market. But this time it's a new regime where at least again for the next six to twelve months, the FED has told us over and over again that they are keeping rates at a higher level for longer, and that's actually better, we think for the value segments of the market, so um at least for the near term, until we expect the FED to start to cut rates, to begin on their cutting cycle, which we do not

think is going to be the case this year. We think that value, much like this year, will outperform in a higher rate regene. Now we can certainly and if this does happen, if we feel like the economy is slowing down much more meaningfully or inflation has come back down much more meaningfully than is our base case or

our forecast right now. Of course, that could shift if the FED were to begin to cut rates back down um to zero or even just back down to two percent or something like that, But that is not the card right now. I think we are going to at least for the next few months, actually see higher interest rates from the BED, perhaps at the end of first quarter,

and again in that period. You want to be allocated to the value part of the equity market with tickers such as sort of you know I W D or I V which give you that allocation to broader value segments of the market, or something like a V l U E, which again is a value factor that gives you exposure to those deep value names. And we saw that this year. We saw sort of that outperformance of minimum volatility and value and to a certain extent, at least in the beginning of next day, I think that

minimum volatility and value can outperform. And then by the end of next day, and you know, hopefully we can have another conversation then. But by the end of next day, if we do see that the FED is stepping in and getting ready to ease rates, we can talk about if it's time to go into growth and where and growth. I think that will be another exciting conversation. Not all

growth will be behaved the same way. They'll certainly be pockets of high quality tech such as semiconductors, such as robotics that will do really well, and there will be other pockets that will not. So can I ask you follow up on this which is so earlier this year we obviously had a couple of different rallies in the stock market that then sort of petered out, they didn't

end up holding. And I think during one of the earlier ones, maybe sometime over the summer, we actually saw when we saw the rally happening, we saw a lot of speculative names also rallying meme stocks and tech versus is what we're seeing now where we are actually seeing some of those value names doing a little bit better. I'm just wondering if you think that that's a sign that maybe the rally is a bit stronger, more broad based versus just seeing you know, tech coming back for

a couple of days or a couple of weeks. Yeah, you're absolutely right. I think there have been seven periods the sale when the market and when I say market, I mean IVV, just the broad index SMP has rallied over seven percent, and we actually saw that, not not including the last couple of days, but from October twelve to sort of the beginning of this week, Um, we

saw another massive rally in the market. And a lot of that is actually around the pricing in of a pivot, right, So every time that has happened, and obviously the most recent one was because of the CPI number followed by the last day of November when the FEDS spoke at UM at the Brookings Institute in November thirty year. Then again that was all pricing in a pivot of policy.

And of course if you're pricing in a pig of policy, you do have sort of that growth led rally and you also have the you know, what's been interesting to me is sort of the most shorted names that rally the most, because obviously that's where positioning is the most offsides. We also saw this back in the sort of the July two or June two August rally, right, and that that rally was what se which ended right before the

Jackson Hole meeting. And again we saw the same thing where there was a pivot narrative getting priced in very prematurely. There's no pivot in sight for now. And again you saw that those areas of the market that we're probably the least owned, that we're pricing in that pivot, and for now, this is not a pivot. For now. The best we can get early next year is perhaps a pause.

To me, a pivot means that the FED is going to turn around and cut rates we're not expecting that, and therefore those value names, looking at a v LUV, looking at an IVY, looking at a nightputy really makes

a lot of sense in a portfolio. And I'll be very honest, depending on how this data for CPI next week comes out, if we get another point too or even a point three, and if we get a core UH Services ex Shelter component, which is the one that I was talking about earlier, having another sort of weakest print. It was a little less than point to last month, and we have another point to and core UH Services ex Shelter, I think that that can be a huge

catalyst going into your end. Everyone wants the Santa rally UM. That can be a catalyst going into between now and the end of January. We can see that, but I don't think that's going to be a lasting rally because I think that earnings growth will probably get revised lower as we see many of the UM analysts starting their revision for twenty three. We're going to see that in the earning season. That is going to be with us in the end of January, so we can have a

period of market rally. For sure. It can be a relief rally, but it is not believed to be a groat lad start of a new cycle. I think that is still far away from us. Well, thank you for defining pivot for us. It's funny how much debate there is over the meaning of the word. Everybody uses it, yeah, without defining it. I think it's the basketball players that are messing everything up because you can pivot. You can pivot in basketball without doing the full money. Just throw

that out there. One really interesting point you make in this look ahead pieces bonds are back. Would have ever thought? Who would have ever thought we'd be talking about bonds as a and you have a you have a great acronym for it. I think it's bar It's barbed. Yeah, so we went from Tina to Barb. Thank you for Bonds are back. Bonds are back, Bonds are back. Okay, yeah,

bonds are back. So we you know, lived in a decade and a half of the of the Tina world, which of course we know is there is no alternative, and now we are about to embark upon actually we have embarked upon it since I first started talking about this barb or actually the first thing that I was talking about a lot was um I called it the

yield of dreams. So it was our yield of dreams that we were getting when you could earn about six and a half percent and something like an i G s B which gives you exposure to the one to five year part of investment grade corporate credit, and to earn over six percent was the stuff of dreams because remember, not that long ago we were going out into high

yield and emerging markets to earn that. We've lived through that, not that long ago, so we remember what it's like to crave yield and live in a world where there is an alternative but to go out of the risk spectrum. And now it is so exciting, I think, to be in a world where there are some incredible opportunities staying very high in quality, short in duration in the fixed income markets and on yields that we could have only

dreamed about. Because bonds are back, because it's barbed, and I'm talking to your treasuries here, I'm talking one to five year i G credit, something like an i G s V or something like an sage why or even mortgages something like an MBB which you can earn you about four point six percent yield without taking again too much credit risks, staying very up in quality and earning significant yield in your portfolio, and especially having that in a world where, um, you know, growth is going to

slow down. Now, whether we're immediately going to fall into a recession or not, you know, we don't know. I think the signs are showing a recession. But even without all of that, I think owning bonds in your portfolio where you have historically been sixty forty two equities, I wonder if you're supposed to be sixty forty two bonds right, Well,

the let's unpack a little bit. You're thinking on the the m B B, the uh, the mbs E T F T. I feel like when people hear mortgages, uh know, there's there's a little bit of a yeah and a little bit of a fear. And and then that scenario laid out where if we do have, uh you know, a sort of a deeper recession than people are worried about, if we do see that uptick in unemployment and delinquencies and defaults, how risky is our mortgages? Do you think

in that scenario? Yeah, I mean I completely hear you. And look, it's very natural for us to always go to It's it's a human bias, right we our brain sort of goes to the last period that we can recall. Whenever we hear the word housing, we think great financial crisis.

And I completely hear that, and I would say that the dynamics off the housing market now, the dynamics of the mortgage market now are so different from what two thousand seven was, because two thousands seven taught us some very good, hard earned lessons around what it means to have, um, you know, a stronger, more regulatory in used mortgage market, and all of that had has led us to a world now where, of course it's much more difficult to get mortgages. The way in which the mortgage market is

set up is a lot more different. And also just from a structural or perspective, I think like our housing prices going to come back come back lower from here, for sure. I think we are going to say, see some of that markets you point out. You know, if unemployment rate does go up from here, let's say it goes up another percent or so, we get up to the mid force, which is probable over the next year. Uh,

is it possible to see further pressure on the housing market. Absolutely, But does that mean that we're going back to the foreclosures and exactly the same kind of outcome that we saw in two thousand seven. The answer is no, because it's a structurally different market. There's a lot less supply of homes, a lot more demand. There is a lot more people that are entering that d to thirty five age bracket in the US that will be needing to

form households that will need to own homes. Uh. There's also uh, you know, thinking back to two thousand seven, I mean there was fourth selling in the mortgage space. Right when we remember back to what was happening to the Ginny Mays and the family maze of the world, there was four selling of mortgages, which will not take

place this time around. These are all government sponsored entities already. Um. And when you're sort of allocating to that space, especially right now, when you're looking at mortgages, you know, one of the risks, if you will, every asset class has a risk, right, So one of the risks that you're that that you would normally faces your pre payment risk, right, So that is you know you've got your credit risk, you've got your interest rate risk, and you've got your

pre payment risk and your pre payment risk. Usually in mortgages comes about why homeowners are able to refinance and pay down their existing mortgage, refinance into a lower rate, and prepare them mortgage. When mortgage rates are where they are, the number of people that can refinance is about nine below where they work pre pandemic, so that pre payment risk isn't really there given what mortgage rates are doing. I don't think any of us are refinancing our home

right now. Well, going forward, you you would have to assume that the FED does hold study and doesn't engage in a big rate cutting campaign. I guess too, you know, to to eliminate that risk. Yeah, and and and again I come back to the what are my assumptions here? Uh, And the assumptions that I build, that my team and I build our forecast on are that number one, inflation remains above the fed's target of two percent, in fact, meaningfully above the fed's target of two percent on PC

for the next six six to twelve months. We think it's going to be closer to three percent instead of two percent by the end of Another assumption that we build this on is and it's related to Number one is that as a result of inflation remaining high, the FED will not start a campaign of cutting rates aggressively

back to zero. You know, we're going to see five five in a quarter and then a pause and just a pause and a hold, which is actually very beneficial for fixed income owners because you're earning your couper and your earning that income of fixed income, which we haven't

seen in these meaningful amounts since the early nineties. So to your point, yeah, I mean, now, if we were to believe that the Fed is going to go back to bringing rates down by two three basis points, which would start that refinancing cycle, absolutely, I think that would

we would think rethink this view all together. But also remembering that more MBB does have a interest rate sensitivity, It does have duration if you will, of near seven years, so you will benefit from having that interest rate duration. But of course there's going to be that pre payment

that's going to come in as well. And one about place is to not be in three because I know you said recently cash had done well uh this year obviously, but that at this point it's not exactly the best place to be going forward, right I mean, yeah, cash has done done well this year. I would say that I think the time to step out of cash has come. I think that, especially given what you're earning in the very front end of the very high quality treasury market.

So right now, if you're in one to three year treasuries, you're earning call it, you know, as of today four point three um. You know, as of just a few weeks ago, it was closer to five. I think it's entirely possible after the FED meeting, if they push it back on pricing just a little bit, you're going to get some incredible opportunity to ease back into the front end of the market with an e t f T like s h D or s H Y and um, you know, enjoy some of the incredible yield that you're

earning there. And I would say that, um, when we have that yield, When we have that incredible yield in the front end of the market, you don't really need to sit in cash. You can be on you can be in duration of one to three years. You're not taking on a lot of interest rate risk, you're not taking on any credit risk. So why be in cash if you can earn so much more just stepping out of cash just a little bit. So you know, cash certainly had a role to play and probably could still

as a maybe like a mitigator to risk. But at one year and two year treasuries yielding what they do, I think the time to step out of cash has has arrived. Wow, Guardi Chargery, head of Investment Strategy for the Americas that I shares fascinating conversation. Any guests who comes on and refuses to make a prediction, I'm going to reference back to this episode and say you can do it. Just have a little confidence and do it.

All right, I think it's that time, Bildonna, It's time for you to improve your your end evaluation for me, Yes, which which I know you care so much about. I do care. I want, I want to win. You know, the prices, precise competitions, obviously, all right, let's bring it on. It's the it's the craziest thing we saw in markets this week. Why don't you go first? So there's this great story this week out about f t X and Taylor Swift having been in talks for a sponsorship deal

worth more than a hundred million dollars. Oh my goodness. And the talks fizzled out. I guess just a couple of months before f t X collapsed there was going to be n F t S involved somehow, like yeah, of course, one would assume there'd be Yeah, of course. And and Sam Bank when freed f t X, same and countried he favored the deal because he's a fan of quote who isn't who party? You know, we didn't get into crypto. But I'm wondering, you know, as someone from a E t F company, you know where your

head is at on crypto. You know, were you bullish about the potential for some more crypto E t F s? Where you sort of agnostic? And how are you thinking about it now? I think the underlying blockchain technology is something that is going to be with us. I'm gonna sound like a very old person when I say this, but I personally don't own any crypto and I've been happy to see that. But I'll also say, what I notice is how many clients asked me about crypto, And honestly,

the number is zero. If there's so much happening in the markets with bonds and inflation and geopolitical risk in the war and front end bonds only you five percent. I don't think anyone is really too concerned about crypto right now. I think that was very different in one got a few questions that year, for sure, Yeah, right right, that's true. That talk about you know, they were the

answer to there is no alternative. Well maybe there's this, but uh, you know it's your point of treasuries at the front end are paying for I don't know, even the yield schemes and the yield farming schemes are now many of them lower than the yields on treasuries and more, many more people are much more scared of than that. Yeah, absolutely, yeah, absolutely for good reason. All right, uh, gargy, how about you. What's the craziest thing you've seen recently? So there's so many.

The first one that I've been absolutely obsessed with all of two is supply chains and just the clogging of supply chains that happened. And you know, we all were very familiar with how much it costs to ship a container for the cubic foot contain now from Shanghai to l A. So it's been really just over the last two months, it's been incredible to see that there are no ships stuck outside the port of l A that's

gone from hundred and seven to zero. So just seeing the unclogging off supply chains and what that might mean for goods inflation, especially when this was such a big concern for for the last twelve months before that. I think that has been incredible, just understanding the truck driver shortage in this country and the huge impact that that has on our day to day and thankfully that's especially

as we go into the holidays. I think that's been incredible to have that sorted out and avoiding some of the strikes, etcetera. So that's something that people don't think about impacting markets, but I think it has a profound implication on markets. So that's one crazy thing that happened

and thankfully got resolved. And then the other one, UM is something that I was looking at recently, but just the amount of UM options that are trading in the market that are within a twenty four hour expery, so pe all buying one day options is about forty of

total options traded, which is insane. That went up from I think the number was somewhere around you know, call it fifteen percent or so in the pre pandemic regime to about forty three percent now, and that's why you see such big one day moves, Like when the market moves one percent, you're pretty sure it's going to move two or three because of this dynamics. That's another crazy thing that I've been noticing that has been going on in the markets is that the you know, the Yolo

retail reddit crowd. Do you think to driving that? I think it's just this understanding of or it's a manifestation of a higher volatility regime that we've entered into. If we look at where the VIX has been trading, or even the move Index for that matter, people trying to capitalize on that. So I don't want to attribute this to any one type of investor. I want to attribute it to what's happening in the markets. With respect volatility

being so high and obvious. I hope that we will see a decline of that and maybe some of this behavior will go away. But I think for all investors, um investors that are trading for themselves or institutional investors, I think it's important to know that this is a phenomenon in the market, and when you're seeing price action that you can attribute some of that to what's happening

in the options market as well. Um, I cannot imagine that this stat is going to remain in alle I would expect it to come down, but I don't think it will go back down to the pre pandemic levels of I think Argue wins because she brought few things, two things. She doubled up, doubled it. All right, you're a lot of double dip though. There are both good ones, both good ones the options that is mind blind. All right, Well it's your turn to win now, Bildada. I've got

faith in you on this one. Uh as as you know, gargy. Maybe you don't know, but my favorite asset class is redictable ridiculous collectible items. I don't know how you allocate to that. I'm like some people do sixty forty bonds, I do like ridiculous collectible. What I think that comes

in the first bucket? Yeah, that's that's a collectible. At this point, a Harry Potter fan who received an exclusive addition of the first J. K. Rowling book after entering a published company competition is putting it up for auction. I think you're actually gonna bid on this. This is if this is Vldona's Wheelhouse. Gargis is Harry Potter Books anyway. This is courtesy of the Press Association in Great Britain,

childcare practitioner. I don't know what a childcare practitioner is, A babysitter, I guess or in any Chloe Esselmont was sixteen when she entered the competition, having to write a letter explaining in no more than fifty words why she loved Harry Potter. So I feel like you could have

entered that competition, um anyway, and she won. She won a leather bound special fifteenth Anniversary edition of Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone, which is published exclusively for the competition and signed by none other than author J. K. Rowling. So the question is, UH, when this goes up for auction at Hanson's Library Auction in Staffordshire on December six, what do you suppose the auction house expects the winning bid to be You forgot to say, we're playing the

prices and I regret to form you, Gargy. I'm gonna need a bid from you as well, because this is our game show. The prices precise, Gargy, I'm gonna make you go First, what do you think the expected winning bid in British pounds is for a fifteenth anniversary leather bound additioned author signed Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. And I reminder it's not always a ridiculous outrageous Okay, but let me give you one more bit of um

of little bit of color on here. Hansen's book expert Jim Spencer, who has one global recognition for rare Harry Potter Finds, you know, global recognition for rare Harry Potter Finds, said he had never seen an example of a book like this. Technically, he said, this is the rarest Harry Potter book I've ever handled, and I have assessed hundreds. Okay, okay, So cash isn't as cheap as it used to be, So I am going to say there's a little bit

of tightening of financial conditions that has happened. So my aunswer would have been differ nastya. I'm going to say fifteen thousand dollars way above, way way above. It pretty much the same, pretty much the same these days. So I'm going with two hundred and fifty thousand pounds to have a hundred and fifty thousand British. I'm putting this bit. You are a Harry Potter bull. Yes, forever forever. I'm sorry, but you lose again what gargy. That was like pretty

good analysis. She took in the financial conditions and that is what they expect ten thousand pounds. Come on, but as usual they will get Vldona will get a call from this auction house. I definitely in our action, Yeah, I kind of. I would have said, on seen, I would have gone over I think I'm not actually bidding on this because I would overbid wit so I said fifteen thousand US dollars and you said it's ten thousand pounds. So I mean I was close and were so bound.

I love this. I'm jealous. I'm jealous of your ability to to to win this. Well. She took in the tighter financial conditions, you know, and and and Britain being sort of drinkings coming guys. Yeah, yeah, that pound liquidity is not what it used to be. Come on, don't make me feel to buy some bonds. Just buy some bonds you here's a free idea for you, just e t F that just buys Harry Potter books. What do you think free for free, one for you. You don't

have to credit me for it. What would be the ticker? H JAC was going but one is good one one is really good. Yeah. W uh, Gargy Chaudry. So great to hear your thoughts and catch up with you. Really enjoyed it and I hope we can get you back again soon. I would love that. Thank you guys, Thank you Gargy. What Goes Up. We'll be back next week and so then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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