Fidelity Sees a Return to Bear-Market Lows

return this year. Either. With investment grade corporate bonds offering yields of almost six percent and even to year treasuries yielding well above four there are alternatives two stocks this year. We're gonna get into it with the director of Global Macro at a major investment firm. But Voldonna before that, I've noticed it's a new year. I am still not a member of your professional network. On Lincoln, this week's guess actually is a member of I think I'm a

member of his professional network. I don't know how it works. I definitely added him because I was looking at his LinkedIn earlier and in preparation for the show, and he has some really great posts about food. He's a good follow, he's a good chef. He's a good person to follow. I was just going to say, you can make a name in social media either with great charts, financial charts or with good food picks. Yeah, good foods. I think he's got both bases, have both. I'm getting hungry. I

get hungry every time I see is. Can I just tell you I have so many invites pending on LinkedIn. Now, even if I tried to add I would never You couldn't possibly even find it. Take me like years. Yeah, that's that's the reason I'm not. But I am friends with with our guests. It's it's Ran tim Or. He's the director of Global Macro ad Fidelity Investments. Yourian, thank you so much for joining us on the podcast. Yeah, well,

thank you for having me. And you know, it's funny you mentioned the food on on social media because you can never please everyone, you know, like I'll get comments saying, oh, you know, just you know what is his Facebook? You know, just just to stick to the market commentary. And then how about the vegans out there, like show me somety and so you can never please everyone? Will want some cauliflower. I think I love cauliflower. I am vegetarian, so I

actually would like to see more vegetables. Yeah, absolutely he did. Uh. I think he did bee fund for for Christmas. I did not know that was legal that you could do beef fun. You can actually dip the beef in the cheese. This is like a dream come true for me. It's an old recipe from It's a recipe from my My mom is a great chef. She's eighty eight years old. But some of my my best recipes are really vintage

retro recipes that were hers from the nineteen seventies. And you know, beefund was like a big thing back there back then. So most people think of cheese fondu, but beefndu is a very good social social type of dinner. You can have ten people over, so it's a lot of fun. I'm salvating just thinking about it. Should have a party mine. You're into the party. Yeah, But I think, all right, you're let's let's shift to your recipe for the markets. Though, I think, how's that sege? That's a

really good segue. So on one of your LinkedIn posts, actually you said two was challenging, So I'm wondering what you foresee for three? And maybe if you don't want to give a full year outlook what you see for the next couple of months at least. So two was all about undoing the excesses in the markets stemming from the basically the over stimulated system following the COVID you know crash and the lockdowns um and you know that whole that whole story episode, which I hope is behind us,

but you never know with with COVID UM. But you know, when the FED went, you know, on the on the gas pedal together with the Treasury, and we had that one to punch of fiscal monetary stimulus. Obviously it was needed at the time. It was a very timely, very active response. It certainly did what it was supposed to do, but I think we can probably all agree that there was maybe too much and it stayed around for too long. The FED appreciated the supply chain bottlenecks and the you know,

the transitory nature of that. Obviously the FED could not see the Russia Ukraine war coming, But in retrospect, maybe there should have been more of an appreciation for the kind of the magnitude of the fiscal stimulus that happened that we haven't really seen since world War two, UM, and so was about taking that punch bowl away in a very big way. And it cost evaluation reset in all markets, right, the bond market, the stock market, the crypto market, the commodity markets, you name it. And so

that was so it was a big valuation reset. Basically, the FED raised the cost of capital on everyone, homeowners, the government, corporations, consumers, um, and the bond market. You know you mentioned Tina early here. The bond market went back to being a viable competitive asset class, I mean

positively correlated to the stock market. Unfortunately for anyone in a sixty forty type portfolio, which is really most of us, but that level the playing field that we now actually have a menu of asset classes that actually is more closely resembles what we have historically seen rather than you know,

the last few years. So now we're in three and for me, the big question and for many investors of course, is, you know, will the FET be able to thread the needle by raising rates just high enough to tame the inflation monster, but without causing a severe recession, which would then mean an earnings contraction, which then would point to the risk of another leg down for the stock market. So I think the bond market has largely reset itself.

We went from one sent long yields to you know, over four point three were now at about three and three quarters or so. So I think that reset is behind us. But for the stock market, when you look at historical cycles, there are some cycles where all of the reset in the market, all of the bear market basically was evaluation component, and by the time earnings maybe did start to fall, enough of it was discounted that the market actually was able to rally because price generally

bottoms before earnings. That certainly happened in two happened in twenty I should say happened in two thousand nine. But you know, when you look at the macro data and you look at the inversion in the yield curve, you know, we when the yield curve was the most inverted about a month ago, we were at the nine percent of most inversion of all time, you know, the most inverted

since nineteen the early nineteen eighties. And you have a FED basically saying, as per the December f o MC meeting that you know, we're gonna go to five ish percent, which given where inflation expectations are now via the tips, market would be in a you know, at a significantly restrictive zone, and the Fed is saying, you know, we're

going to kind of stay there for a while. And so if if when you combine that with the possibility or the likelihood of a recession maybe in the second half of the year, which would then cause an earnings contraction, you know, it's not unreasonable to worry that there was another shoe that's going to drop. But again, it's it's a very much a nonlinear type of thing because price does bottom before earnings. I don't know if you remember

two and a half years ago. You know, in the summer of the market was roaring back, going to new all time highs fairly quickly after the crash in in February and March, and a lot of people were scratching their heads, saying, how how is this possible? The world is coming to an end, people are dying, the economy is lockdown. How can the market be justified by going to new highs? And in retrospect, the market was just feeling that that lead lag timeline between price and earning.

So it is possible that the October lows were the lows um and that if we get a mild recession or a mild earnings contraction or only an earnings contraction in real terms but not in nominal terms, that we've seen the worst of it. But it is a risk that there is an earnings wave coming in uh let's say later, and that we're not out of the woods yet.

So my very safe forecast is that is going to be kind of a choppy, sideways market where we're going to revisit the lows maybe once or twice as kind of the fear grows that there's an earnings wave coming. But at the same time, there's going to be opportunities. There's gonna be a lot of under the surface rotation. I think, like we saw in two, I think international markets are looking a lot more interesting. Value I think

will continue to outperform growth. So I think it's going to be a very very bifurcated market where at the beta level not much is going to happen, but at the alpha level, at the second order asset allocation level, there will be opportunities. And I think the forty side of the sixty forty will be a port in the storm. Uh If if that's sixty side still has another down lick.

It's interesting your and I are colleague Sam Potter in London put together this monster compilation of sort of every strategists or fund managers predictions for three and that notion that there's a lot of bullishness on bonds. Obviously some even saying well maybe you flip the sixty relationship and

got bonds or even bonds thirty equities. But I feel like embedded in all this bond bullishness is this notion that inflation has peaked, might not get back down to that supercent level this year, but it's going to head in that direction. We've seen the worst of it. I just get nervous when I see a consensus like that where everyone's sort of thinking the same thing. It makes

a lot of sense that that should happen. I think, you know, if you have, if you're forced in your career to make predictions for the coming year, that one makes tons of sense. But how big of a tail risk or regular risk is the idea that inflation isn't as under control as everyone hopes it is. You know, is there a risk there that's that's not really being appreciated? Yes, I think that that is correct. And if you look at the tips market, uh, and the tips market is

by no means always correct. No, no market is I mean, any market is just a subset of human behavior and human expectations, and so market signals are often wrong, which of course is a risk for the FED when they look at financial conditions. But that's another conversation. But it seems like a no brainer that if we're going to have economic weakness and now that inflation is going down,

I mean it is right. I mean, the c p I piked at nine percent year over year in June, and it's you know, it's well off of those levels, and most economists that I follow, and even our in house economics team, it seems fairly likely that inflation will continue to come down at least still about four percent. But as you point out that, the risk is that it stops there or that it doesn't go all the way back back down to two. And one thing that the FED has been very clear about recently is that

it's not enough just to see inflation come down. It has to come down to the FEDS target, which is two pc, which generally the CPI runs a little higher than that because of the different compositions. So basically two and a half percent on the c P I would is the Fed's target. And the risk is that, you know, the FED will go to around five percent in the next three months or so. I mean, the FED has been fairly clear about that. The dot plot suggests the

same thing. Uh, But there's a disconnect between what the forward curve, you know, the SOFA curve or the FED funds curve is saying the FEED will do and what the FED is saying the FED will do. Right, if you look at the three dot plot, the median dot is like four and three eight or so, and the FED funds curve or the SOFA curve is at three.

I mean, that's a big disconnect, right, And so I think the risk is that, and I think the FED sees this, is that the FED wants to contain inflation all the way back to its target because if it doesn't do it now, even at the risk of a recession, then it may never be able to do it unless, you know, unless much more severe measures are taken. And imagine we do go into a recession second half of this year and inflation goes all the way to four which is of course help of a lot better than

nine um. But that's then the trough. And let's say inflation then accelerates in the following expansion off of a base of three or four instead of you know what normally would be zero or one, right, because the pendulum is always swinging through that average target. And I think, you know, I mean, it's a conversation for another time,

because we're very far from that happening. But that would create the risk that bonds are indeed no longer support in the storm because if you think about where the term premium is, which is around zero or so. Uh. And let's say that inflation does become more embedded at a higher rate, even if it's only three or four, it's still you know, almost double what the FED would like to see. Then you could see a period of

structurally higher real rates and nominal rates. But I think for the focus will be more on recession risk and the forty starting to negatively correlate again against the sixty, which is what has happened in the last few months. Again, although it's only a few nts, do you just want to pause and say it's the year finally people are talking about SOFA it's taken a while. Finally the secured overnight financing rate that replaced library Are you impressed with

You're not as impressed as I am. Not just you know, because I bug you with these topics all the time, where I email I'm like, what does this mean? All the time? So first, huge, Now going forward, we were finally out from under the shadow of live work. We've been talking about it for years. Yeah, well you're in.

I wanted to ask you if you feel that we've definitively made the switch from worrying about inflation to worrying about growth and what it is in terms of economic signals that you're tracking that might sort of give you clues in terms of whether or not or how severe of a recession. We get, Yes, I think for that is correct. Maybe we'll be worrying again again about inflation, but for now, clearly inflation is on a decelerating track.

We see this in your w prices, used car prices, I mean, you know, price of energy commodities, uh that, and you know the p M I price is paid, So all of those numbers are heading in the right direction. Of course, the FED is focused on the labor market, which remains very tight. But um, I think for three, the big question is, you know, last year the first shoe dropped, which was the valuation reset driven by the FED,

driving the cost of capital higher for everything. And remember all assets are are really just the present value of future cash flows, whether it's a bond or you know, a rental property or a stock. And so when when the discount rate in that discounted cash flow model goes up, the present value of those cash flows goes down, even if the cash flows themselves are still growing. And that, really, in a nutshell, is what explains what happened last year. So that that I think is largely in the rear

view mirror. When you look at past economic cycles or past bear markets, even the really really bad ones like the financial crisis, the dot com bubble four, all of those rarely produced a rate of change in the PE ratio that was more negative than what we've seen in two. So it's really it's it's it's a stretch to me to argue that the PE ratio is going to go

down even more than it already has. Right, it went from the twenties mid twenties to fifteen, but the PE is only as good as the E, of course, and so the E is what the question is, fore will that E hold up? And maybe it holds up in nominal terms because of inflation, but not in real terms.

Maybe it doesn't hold up in either. But when you think about disconnects, and you mentioned, you know earlier about the bond market where everyone seems to be bullish, you know, another disconnect is that it seems like a lot of people are worried about the recession. But you look at the earnings estimates, the aggregated estimates, and I get mine from from my Bloomberg terminal every Friday. It still points to positive expected growth in and you know, I would

be a lot happier. It sounds silly, but uh, you know, sort of wearing my contrarian hat if the earnings estimates were really bad right now, because then you have a sense, okay, investors are under paying for you know, what could be a positive surprise if we end up getting either no recession or a mild recession. And that's one of the

disconnects that kind of worries me a little bit. That uh, that the that you know, that's something that's not apparently in the price that the p is, but the E still is kind of hanging in there, and that I think is what in a nutshell is going to be about, is will the E hold up right, especially in those

further out quarters in the year. You know, it seems like everyone seems to backload the growth for an EPs towards the end of the year, and slowly that gets whittled down perhaps, but you're in One post of yours really caught my attention because it talked about both the two day moving average in the SMP five and just

the basic trend line. And for listeners who who aren't aware, basically, if you take a chart of the SMP five hundred uh and you start at the record last about a year ago, almost exactly last January, and just connect the top of the chart going down, it's just a straight trend line down. And what's really been fascinating is that any sort of rebound in the market over the past year has failed right at that trend line, and if not, the two day moving average a similar trend line, though

not as straight. For a lot of fundamentally investors minded investors, um that's a hard thing to to swallow, you know, How can you draw a simple trend line and have it work. You know, is is it really that simple? Something? I'm curious, you know, how important are the technical goals these days, specifically that trend line? Is it really that simple? And do we need sort of some big fundamental change

of tides to break that trend line? Well you ask a great question, and it actually it brings me back, and I hope you don't mind me digressing for a moment, but it brings me back to the start of my career, which is like almost uh just years ago, thirty eight years ago. I started in the business working at a bond desk of a Dutch bank in New York, a b N bank which became a ban Emero. Then I

ended up running that small bond desk. So my history starts as a bond geek, but I got really into charting and technical analysis and that still is in my d n A today. But you know, then ten years later, so so almost twenty eight years ago, I was hired by Fidelity as a chartist. I like it, like we have a chart room. Tom Keane always speaks very highly of of that, of that whole history and legacy. But I was hired as a technical analyst, and I quickly

found out the hard way. I guess that I was catering to an audience of mostly fundamentally oriented portfolio managers, and they all look at charts, or at least many of them do. But if I you know, you know, back in the day, I was an analyst on knocking on doors, you know, trying to trying to you know, show you know, ideas to people like Bob Stansky and George van der Hyden and you know, people running the

really big funds. And you know, when you're a one trick pony and you just have a chart with some lines drawn on it, the conversation is going to end pretty quickly. So I realized that, um, that technical analysis is important. It's a very important compliment to other analysis.

But you need to have you still, you know, like the technical analyst to me is the is the when and how much part of the question, But the fundamental side is the what and why right and so UM, I think to your specific question about the SMP peaking your right January four two at eighteen on the SMP UM from that peak until the low UM in October, you look at all the little counter trend highs you draw a trend line, and the last one held perfectly, and that was also at the two day moving average.

And by the way, if you look at a chart of kind of the overall liquidity in the market, it's not a chart that I created, I've seen it elsewhere. But you take the FATS balance sheet minus reverse repose minus the t g E the Traadury general account, and

it's that same line, right. So, um, I think technical analysis is used by a lot of people either as something to confirm or deny a thesis, but for instance, for the c T a crowd which had a banner year last year, I think it actually provides actual signals. You say, Okay, you know, I'm long. I'm going to sell at the declining two hund day moving average, especially

if there are other technical features that complement that. And so I do think that there is a cohort of traders and investors who actually will use those indicators as as ways to execute trades. And the nice thing is, you know, if if a moving average is kind of a confirmed resistance point or a down trend line, and you sell against that trend line, you know very quickly if you're wrong and right for and for c t as or hedge funds. Uh, that's the name of the game.

It's risk management. So if you sell at four thousand and it goes to well, then you're out, and then you'll you'll wait and see what happens next. And so I think in that sense, these technical tools are still very very viable tools for trade location and timing, But from my perspective as a longer term investor, it's really there to confirm or deny a thee and to help with kind of trade sizing and timing and things like that. Mike, do you know where you can find the best technical analysis?

Why don't you tell them? In crypto? Oh? Yeah, Well that's what it's all about. You can make up chart patterns. I've seen the Bart Simpson chart patterns. You're in one more quick thing, and you kind of made me think about this. When you talk about your career started thirty eight years ago. One thing you hear a lot of people say these days is, oh, these so many fund managers, strategists, traders, whatever,

today are young. They haven't worked through a high interest rate environment like you saw in the eighties, um to which I often reply, well, yes, but they've also been working with high powered computers their whole career. You know, they're able to back test stuff much more quickly and

efficiently than anyone could back then. But I'm wondering how you think about that notion that you know, there's this generation of investors, fund managers, market participants all over the place who who haven't lived through this type of inflation shock that we've seen. Have you noticed any sort of you know, effects of that already or anything you would suspect going forward, or is it just a just a bunch of talk. Uh? No, I think it's important, and

it doesn't just pertain to to inflation. It's just you know, market cycles in general, you know, Like so I've been around for a while, I've directly experienced a lot of cycles, and I remember, like yesterday, the green span cycle. Um. And that doesn't mean you can't be a good strategist

or investor if you weren't around back then. But for me, as a strategist, especially one who is you know, very visually oriented, I find it very helpful that the more cycles I've experienced, the more context I have in my head, because you know, you kind of I can I can look at this cycle and say, you know, no cycle repeats exactly, like, that's not how it works. Every cycle is unique in some way, but we kind of borrow different things from different cycles, right, I mean, the fourties

is one area. I mean I wasn't around back then, but that's one major cycle that I have kind of used as an analog because that's the last time we had this huge, double powered fiscal monetary response to you know, to an event, which back then was of course the US entering World War Two, but has some parallels the way Greenspan kind of went nonlinear in and how often

and in what increments he would raise rates. And of course the nineties seventies are their lessons learned the late sixties, and of course the late nineties have things in common even though they were totally different periods in time, but they had a lot of speculation in what today are are the meme stocks, but back then it was the

space stocks or the dot com stock. So an advantage of having a long experience is that you know, even if you don't directly remember it, it kind of rings a bell saying, you know, this kind of feels like that. So whether it comes down to inflation or just appreciating what happens in a recession. I mean, you know, like you know, we used to have recessions every four or five years, right, That's why it was called the four

year cycle. But over the last couple of decades, we've had recessions only one every ten years or so, and the Great Recession was the last one. And actually that creates the opposite kind of confirmation bias, because people think of recession, they think of recession, they think of the financial crisis, even though that was a perfect storm that only happens, you know, every hundred years or so. There are much milder recessions that we can look at the

dot com period, So it's a it's limitation. But as you as you mentioned, you know, we have lots of information, a lot of it that I get from my Bloomberg terminal. You guys have done a great job building that arsenal of data um and um and you know, and this is one of the reasons why I make my stuff publicly available on Twitter and LinkedIn, because even though it's proprietary, of course, it's our I p. I think if it helps everyone make better decisions, then I think we all

win in the end. Well you're in timmer head of Global Macro at Fairy. Great to catch up with you and hear your thoughts. Well thought it. Maybe he can get us recipe for cauliflower. I will make it and I will tag you on the post. How's that? Absolutely? But before we let you go you're in. We do have to get to our attrition. Hear the craziest things we saw in markets. I'm gonna get it started because our good friend Twiggy. Sunday, he tweeted at me thebanna

of Reuter's video. It was about the Saudi Arabia Camel Festival. We've talked about this, the King Abdullah's Ease Camel Festival, forty five days long. It features daily auctions of camels. Now, camels are big in Saudi Arabia. They like to race them, They have miss pets, transportation, everything, and according to this video, at least an ordinary domestic camel goes for about four

thousand dollars. But it's time to play. You're in the prices precise, the prices precise, first prices, percise prices precise. Not the prices right, You're absolutely not completely different game. What do you suppose the highest price ever paid at auction for a very nice camel ever ever, according to the Riders video at the King Abdullah's Ease Camel Festival in Saudi Arabia, was it? Was it in the past year. I do not know the date of it. No, shoot, okay,

but I do feel like there's a bowl market in camels. Okay, okay, I'm going with three d seventy dollars ran in seventy five dollars. You're in. What do you think? What do you think the highest price paid for a camel at auction in the King's Camel auction if you go over island, so the average you set is four thousand, that's sort of the entry that's your entry level camel, you know. Yeah, yeah, it comes down to the pe ratio of camel ratio there.

Maybe there's some hump rate you know analysis you can do if during the dot com bubble the pe of a NASDAC one hundred stock was a hundred, where normally it would be twenty. That's five x so that but that's only twenty thousand. That seems too low. I'm gonna say a hundred thousand, hundred, five point five million, five remember, oh my God, I think for for grants kind of a bargain. I wonder if I could get one shipped over. I think we're gonna should go. You put in that

second to see what we put in the ticket. Yeah, wow, I'm so shocked by this. And thank you Twiggy Sunday. Of course, of course, thank you Twiggy. Okay, I'll go next. So you probably saw this, but fourteen years ago this week was when the very first bitcoin block was mined. Okay years ago, fourteen years ago this week and since then, this is a story courtesy of Joe Wisenthal, who I think is your seat mate. We don't sit in the same seat. That would be awkward. That would be awkward

because you have competing podcasts. But since then, Bitcoin is up one six nine zero seven zero six nine seven one. Wait, how many commas in a million percent? Three? No, there's three commas a billion percent? Yeah, oh my goodness. Because it was trading for like it went from a penny basically for a fraction of a penny. Too. Well, you're in. You know, Fidelity has made a big inroads in the crypto.

What what's your thoughts after this? You know, just disastrous year for crypto going for Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of what we've seen and certainly what's in the headlines now, you could argue that doesn't really even have to do with with crypto like that. That's an

old story as old as as as human kind. But it happens when you have a newly developed market that is unregulated or underregulated and that you know, has a lot of promise, gets a lot of people excited, but the lack of regulation also creates creates the opportunity for fraud. And you know that that's a very old story that keeps getting repeated, but just with different circumstances. And you know, when I look at this year, I kind of think

back to two thousands. You know, it was a different technology, but there are similarities, right, and and and that translates not just into crypto but the meme stocks in general. And it just shows you that speculation. You know, you know, people learn from their mistakes, but they don't learn it for very long or or the next generation then has to learn it from scratch, which and that's why these bubbles tend to be spaced a couple of decades apart um.

I think that will be you know, there is still a future. I think there will be another wave coming. I don't know when it it happens. Usually when you see the kind of winter that we're seeing now and that we saw, for instance, in two thousand and one and two for tech stocks, it does take a couple of years for uh kind of those animal spirits to

come back. I think, you know, the next wave, when it happens, will be the one that's based on hopefully prudent regulation that gives you know, institutions, um and other investors a sense that, Okay, the water is safe in

that sense that to play in. And then it's a question of you know, again using the dot com boom and bubble as an example, is which ones which tokens or which assets are the pets dot COM's of the nineties and which ones are the Apples and the Amazons because Apple and Amazon and Google will Google was launched after but those all had very large draw downs, but they all came back, and Apple is now sevent of the NASDAC And so I think it's it's separating the

ones that are you know, that are long term market share leaders from from the ones that were kind of a flash in the pen. I think that's being separated right now, of course as we speak, and the fact that Bitcoin, even though it's down a lot, is still there um. And what's happened to you, of course in the rest of the space, if anything is is is um justification for why bitcoin was better than all the other stuff? Um. So I think all of that will

be sorted out. But but these these massive cycles take time to to to play out. Do you think a much lower interest rates are pre prerequisite to get those

animal spirits going again? Well? So, you know, for for crypto assets, of course, it's all about the network, and I'm glad you just mentioned that, um, And certainly for bitcoin it's about the adoption curve, right, and that and I've done work on this looking at god knows real road miles, you know from a hundred and fifty years ago, or you know, or the our cell phone adoption or internet adoption. And so bitcoin and other cryptos follow that

adoption curve. And that curve is going to grow on on a micro level because of the use case of the token or the asset, but it can certainly be sped up or slowed down by macro right, and so the macro was very favorable in because you know the money printer stuff and all that, and of course it was very unfavorable in. And so I think the macro of real rates and at policy matters because they can speed up or slow down the adoption curve, but ultimately the adoption curve has to grow on its own. And

so those are the two dimensions that I look at. Vildonna. You know where animal spirits are always present, the camel market. Camel market. I was trying to find something clever to say, down, Wow, that's well you're in. How about you? Have you seen anything crazy in markets this week? Well, the year is still young, so not so far this week, but we've certainly seen plenty of crazy stuff. And part of it I think is the result of the machines taking over

the short term flow. Right. If you think about how much of the options value in the SMP has a maturity or an exploration like less than forty eight hours, I mean that we used to never see that happen, and so it creates a lot of volatility. And I remember, you know the October thirteen low, which so far is the low for the SMP. I don't know if it's going to stay that way. But uh, in the two days, you know, we had that very big reversal and I think the SMP was up something like seven percent in

two days. But the meme stocks, you know, the Goldman Sachs nonprofitable growth basket, I think it was up in two days. And that's just that's not normal. And that's the machines, right, that is the algoes and the machines taking over. And I think it's important for regular investors not to get kind of swept away by that, thinking like, oh my god, something is happening and I'm missing it. But no, it's it's it's options and machines and stuff

like that. Yeah, fascinating stuff. Urian Simmer had a global macro at Fideliti. Really great to catch up with you, and I hope we can bring you back again sometimes great. Well, thank you for having thank you for coming on What Goes Up. We'll be back next week. And so then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website and

app where wherever you get your podcast. We love it if you took the time to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts, so more listeners can find us and you can find us on Twitter, follow me at reag Anonymous Bildonna hierarch Is at Bldonna Hirach. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. What Goes Up is produced by Stacy Wong. Thanks for listening, to see you next time.