Fading the New Year's Bounce

at a wealth management firm, but Vildonna. Before we get into it, I gotta I gotta apologize for for I'm gonna be cranky for this episode because I made the mistake of stepping on a scale on Monday that I had a feeling. I can into it. You just look it at me. You could tell that stepping on a scale is not going to bring me joy. Yeah. No, no, it's not that. It's because I gave you a gift

I bought. I bought you this like special heart to find dip that I really like, and I asked you if you like it and you said it's good, which means that you didn't like it, and you weren't eating it, and you tried it, there's no way you wouldn't have liked it. Well, why would I be mad at the scale if I didn't like it? Though? I got you there. Yeah, Joe Wisenthal did a like a three day fast the other day. Yeah, it's like four days. I can do like a four hour fast. Yeah, I just say five minutes.

But the lesson is never stepped on a scale in January. I think just in general, who cares, don't don't step on it. Well, let's uh put the markets on the scale here? How about that? Oh that's good. That's a really good transition. I do want to bring in our guest, Keith Learner, co chief investment Officer at truest Wealth. Keith, thanks so much for joining us. Great to be with of Aldanna is so so great to be on the podcast.

I know you and I have spoken for several years, so this is just a great uh you know set up. And Mike, great to meet you as well. Yeah, Keith, why don't we start off just give us a little bit about your background and the background of Truists. Now for listeners, are who aren't familiar. Truist was formed basically by the merger of sun Trust and bb and T

a couple of years ago, is the right. That's right? Um, you know, right before the pandemic we merged and we're the six largest bank in the country, big presence in the southeast. Also, you might see these big purpose signs up in the Northeast as well, like New York and California.

So we're really acrourse the country at this point. And we have a very vibrant and growing wealth business which I am fortunate to be the co chief investment officer and lead our you know, asset allocation, market views, economic views, and really hopping out clients. Uh navigate these complicated markets. And I think Fildonna our first guests in the city of Atlanta. How about that? Is that true? True? I

don't know, eter, I love a good pun. Okay, So maybe wild or weird or crazy markets is maybe even an understatement. So Mike mentioned that we are seeing this resurgence in meme stocks, in crypto, etcetera, etcetera. Maybe can you just talk about what's behind this sudden new interest

in stocks. As we turned the page onto three and as the year is getting started, sure, and I think in the at the onset you mentioned, hey, is this something the beginning of something that's sustainable, and we're skeptical. You said also turn the corner, I think, or maybe the calendar, and I think that's what's happened. If you think about late last year, we saw actually a lot of tax laws selling. We saw the market, the SNP have this kind of correction in December around five or

six percent. So I think as you turned the calendar, a lot of these areas that were beat up, that was sold off late last year, or seeing this meme reverse and in January is often the time when you see that mean reversion. I would say this, Uh, you know, if you think about the meme stocks, those typically will do well in a period of you know, rising liquidity, and we're still taking away liquidity. So we just don't think it's sustainable. We think it's more of a balance,

but we would be fading that balance, you know. Keith, I know in your outlook for three talk about the need to remain defensive. What does that mean in this environment? The notion of defense to me, I think it kind of changes with the times. You know, for a while there it felt like big cap tech was defensive, you know, during the pandemic. What's a good defensive strategy look like

these days? Sure? And uh, you know, we moved to a an underweight position and equities at the end of October, and we went to an overweight position in fixed income. And as we're thinking about kind of big picture ASCID allocation, you know, we think that the macro risk at large, we think there's still somewhat elevated recession risk, and we look at you know, equities and and credit we just

don't think you're being compensated. At best. You can say, with the correction we had last year, equities and maybe fairly valued credit markets are actually you know, to us,

very expensive relative to the risk. So being defensive from a stock, bonds and cast perspective is being overweight fixed income relative to equities, and then in the fixed income component, keeping it simple, keeping with high quality fixed income and not really taking a lot of credit risk at this point, and then more kind of moving down a little bit, Mike, you know, when we think about the overall markets, I think you also have to go below the markets surface.

As you mentioned, tech is still not leadership, so we've been seeing more opportunities below the markets surface, things like they equated SMP. And then lastly, more of on a sector standpoint, bar bellan kind of defensive sectors like healthcare with things like energy and industrials that have some unique circumstances,

you know, in this environment. So Keith, just going with that defensive team, I think you are also for seeing you US recession this year, right, whereas we've had some people coming out recently and being maybe a bit more optimistic or saying that any potential recession is likely to be pushed back or delayed. So tell us about what you're projecting for the economy. Sure, and I think we all know if we do a recessing it will be

the most called one beforehand in history. But listen, we follow the way to the evidence, and we look at some timely indicators and with those indicators, whether it's the deep and version of the yield curve, the leading economic indicators which are down more than four percent on a year over year basis, you know housing market which peaked

last year, those historically suggests elevated recession risk. But you know, as we look even at the yield curve, when you say, okay, on average, once you invert, which happened last year, that would push us more into the middle to the fall of neck of this year. So you know, as far as the recession, and I would say, right now, the data suggests we are not in recession, but we still

think there's risk of one happening later this year. I think the biggest reason behind that is, as we all know, as we've all been talking about the last year, we've had the most aggressive increase in monetary policy, not only domestically but also globally in the last forty years, and we just think that's gonna weigh on growth as we move further into this year. Keith, one theme I keep hearing people talk about a lot this year is UH the outperformance of the rest of the world versus the US.

And I'm looking at UH some of your positioning advice here. You rank international developed equity markets and emerging markets as sort of the less attractive side there, which I find interesting because there is there does seem to be a lot of bullishness elsewhere towards you know, the rest of the world excluding the US. So walk us through what you're seeing that makes you sort of want to stay away from international equities. Sure, and maybe a little context.

I mean, we've been big bows on the US for for several years. UH. Fortunately, I've benefited from the big outperformance because we've been thinking the U s is that big blue chip country. And if you look at this kind of simply, the earning trends for the US have been so much stronger than the rest of the globe. You know, international markets have done really well. And if you think about why that is, I think there's two

main factors. One, the climate in Europe was much warmer than expected, so the energy crisis that a lot of folks were concerned about just didn't happen. So that's one positive. And then the second positive, which was unexpected was basically China ripping the band aid off of COVID and in europe's a big trading partners. So so with all that said, I listen, I think that's an area where focusing on

right now on a short term basis. You know, if you look at the last two or three months, it's had one of the biggest outperformance periods UH in the last twenty or thirty years. So our position is things are getting more interest in there you've had a big run because of these unexpected events that have broken the right way. We would be looking more potentially to upgrade that on a consolidation or pull back after such a

strong move up that we've seen. But again in the in the grand scheme the last ten years, it's really still underperformed by a wide margin. Is that part of being more defensive too, is leaning more towards US than than international traditionally. Yes, but I would say, you know, we all somewhat and and been underweight tech for several months, So it's not just as simple as saying, hey, by the SMP five hundred, we've been a big advocate over the last year and still are of the equal weated SMP,

which basically is a proxy for the average stock. It's not weighed down so much by these big megacap tech stocks, and evaluations are more reasonable. If you look at a relative price chart, you're basically at a four year relative high to the overall market. So it's almost like a period. It's an echo of two thousand where you want to start looking different or and we've been doing that over

the last year than just the SNP five hundred. It's not just buying that index and sitting back because we just don't see tech as leadership likely even for the next cycle. Okay, tell us more about your preference for the equal weight in next because it has been outperforming

over the last couple of weeks. And basically what that shows us is that there's just the rally has been more broad based than previously, right correct, And as I mentioned, we really started a getting more interested, you know, early last year when when tech valuation has got pretty expensive. And the way to think about it is tech communications and growth or allocation within the SMP became so large. We all know about the famoustocks and how large each

of those individual companies. So what we're seeing is it's kind of reallocation from these really heavyweight growth areas to these smaller weight you know, value cyclical areas of the market and even some of the defensive areas. So we we're seeing this rotation and we just expect that's likely to continue. And unlike you know, big cap Tech, which has corrected a lot, but still I would say is not cheap from a historical standpoint, the average stock is

training close to to about a fifteen times multiple. Again, I'm not saying that's deeply cheap, but it's it's more reasonable also from that perspective as well. Yeah, Keith, one note of yours that cut my eye. You called the reverse portrayed presumably David Tepper, is this betting against the Carolina Panthers? Is that what this straight is all about? Against them? I assume that's not it, but to talk

to us what it really is. Yeah, I have some I have some relativis in uh Charlotte and in laws and also now our headquarters for druous is in Charlotte. So I'm not going to be rooting against them, but that's not the gave me any uh anything client exactly. So the way we put this out a note out mid last year, which is interesting. I saw him about it probably about a week after we put this note out,

and he basically validated of you. I did send an email to David and said, hey, if I always send this out, I haven't heard back, so maybe he'll listen to your podcast an email. But the way we're thinking about it is this. If you remember back, you know, coming out of the financial crisis around I think it was around two thousand and ten. Back then, David made

a very cojin point. It was very simple. He said, basically, either the economy is going to get better and that's gonna help stocks out, or the economy has the weekend and the FED is going to step in and support the market. So it's almost like a wind win proposition. So in some ways you have almost the polar opposite of that today and next goes back to the whole

question about recession or not. Is one either the economy is going to stay somewhat strong and that's gonna force the FED to continue to be somewhat tight, or the economy is going to weaken, which is gonna hit corporate profits, and if you're training out of seventeen and a half multiple, there's some downside risk. To be fair, there there is a third scenario, which the market has started to buy

into a little bit. Is this kind of soft landing where the economy, you know, slows down but doesn't go into recession. Inflation is coming down rapidly, and there is some probability. We just don't think it's high probability. And that's one of the reasons over all, while we still remain defensive, because you're just not being compensated for the macro risk that we're seeing, at least not today. I wanted to ask you, speaking of the FED, how the

recent rally in stocks actually works against the Fed's goals. Right, So we have a loosening of financial conditions and it's not exactly like the FED wants to be seeing stocks rallying, That's right, And I mean it's it's not just the equity market. Also, you look at the credit markets. I mean, look how yield spreads are back to where where they were several months ago. So we're not embedding any uh,

you know, recession risks as a whole. And I think if you're the FED and you're focused on financial conditions which you can impact, I think at some point they're gonna start jaw boarding the market again. So I think that's that's a challenge. And then also you know the unemployment rate. You know, if you're in the soft landing camp, the unemployment rate is still at three and a half percent.

I mean, that's not a place where even if you see disinflationary trends that we think the Fed's going to take their foot off the pedal, at least on the jaw boarding side. And we also think the FED has some scard tissue from what's happened over the last year, which will make them maybe not as aggressive when they do eventually pin. So talk us through what you're thinking from the Fed. You know, this week we did get

some some new inflation data. The p p I index, Uh, it was down half a percentage point month over month UM at the same time we saw downward surprise and retail sales uh, you know, down more than one percent. Some of the regional FED indexes have been pretty bad. You know, is this enough to make the FED at least pause after maybe another fifty basis points or or what we're we're how do you see it all playing out in in sort of the first half of the year with the Fed? Yeah, I think in general they

probably should be somewhat happy. Looking does look like we're seeing this inflation any precious CPI looks like it it did come down, you know, the rents we all know is going to work with the lag. So I think they should be you know, probably the p p I as you mentioned, I think, well, they'll be happy that things I'm moving in the right directions. And but you know, even if they all go into pivot I don't think

they're gonna let you know that. I mean, there's no reason for them to really, you know, talk too too much about taking their their foot off the pedal, even though it's more likely to the point is probably another fifty basis points or so to go and then just to pause and then just to hold. And going back to the premise of scar tissue, this is when we

started talking about a lot last year. Is that you know, for for over you know, two decades, the Fed really didn't have to worry about inflation, right if you think about coming out of the financial crisis or the printing back then, which actually looks small relative to the last couple of years, There was all this discussion about inflation, inflation, inflation, it never came, so that really gave the Fed the green light to come in at any point to support

the market. Well, this is the first time in decades they've had to worry about inflation. So we think that scar tissue of what's happened over the last year is going to make them, you know, more reluctant to be aggressive. And I think one of the things, you know, if we do have a recession, which again is that based case I think there's a lot of discussion is this gonna be harder soft? I think a lot of the things like the labor market load, delinquency rates suggests maybe,

you know, somewhat short and shallow. But at the risk is this is not much of a you know, much of a policy response relatives to the past if we have some type of outlier event, and that's the risk. What about this idea that the reopening in China can complicate what the feed is trying to do in that with their reopening, we could maybe see a resurgence in inflation numbers here in the US. I'm wondering about that, and also how maybe whatever is going on with China

might complicate your outlook as well. Yeah, no, it's I mean, and that's the thing. You can look back at history. There's a historical playbook, but you know, the historical playbooks likely challenged because, I mean, how many times that we have the most of the global slowering and then the second largest economy actually stimulating and also showing um economic growth which is certainly likely to be much higher than

the past year in China with the stimulus. So to your point, I do think if you know, as China reopens, that likely put some upward pressure on commodities at least support maybe what won't go down as much as as typical.

And that's where I think that the main translation could be for the fad is if some of these commodity prices stay higher for longer because of that, I will say, just like what we experienced here in the US, a lot of I think what you're gonna see is more of kind of this pent up consuming spending, especially on the service side. Um. But then I saw a stat this week, Um, you think about them reopening. I haven't

verified it, but it came from a legitimate sources. Every call is that in twenty nine, tourism from China to Europe, I want to say it was or the amount of nights UM stayed from Chinese tourists and Europe was like twenty million, and then one that fell to about one and a half million, again million plus to one point five million, And that wasn't at the end of one We don't even have the stats for the last year.

So if they just you know, go back to half and start traveling, and I'm sure there's a lot of folks that are antsy to to to start traveling again. Um, that's that's huge, that's huge demand and probably one of the reasons going back to the question about the Nascal, you've seen this this really v shaped rebound and international markets. Yeah, probably good for the Euro too, I would assume gets get a rebound there too. Keith, I know one thing you said in your outlook is you need to remain

tactical this year. So I'm curious what sort of signs it would take or what sort of market action you would need to see to get you in the bullish camp of things. You know, what is there any sort of target you have for the market or or something that would make you go, you know, now now is the time to really jump in with both feet into the stocks, into growth, into you know, all these things were kind of shirking at the moment. Sure, and you know,

we don't have a specific price targets. We will find it more helpful to have kind of conditions and then you know, use the way of the evidence. So a lot of times when we say be tactical, like last year, as I mentioned, we've had we had six moves of at least ten percent in the market right three to the downside three to the up side. So I think as this whole debate rages on about hard landings, soft landing, China, reopening Europe, I think we don't have those toctical opportunities

as well. So things that we would be looking for, I guess to take money off the table, like maybe start there is you know, we combine you know, valuations. So like if you think about this market, you know as an eighteen p has been kind of a you know, top end of the range even before the pandemic around eighteen and a half. And then you look at some technical things like even with the recent rally, we were now the most overboard we've been for a few months.

To us, the risky ward is not the compelling as you kind of moved from you know, four thousand, forty one hundred to the other side. More direct to your question, you know what gives more positive fire lower prices and and sentiment that gets a bit washed out, more and cheap evaluations. So and when we think of back around um October, we were around you know, thirty five hundred or so trading around the fifteen multiple sentiment very negative,

and we saw our technical indicator is very oversold. That's the same thing that we're looking for. And I think, listen, you're not gonna we're not trying to top bomb ticking to this. It's in possible, But I'll focus is there's gonna be these extremes. And when we start to see those conditions moved an extreme, we want to be a

tactical to add risk or take risk off. So I would say maybe the point now, I mean, if we get back closer to those loads, to us, that would be more interesting, where today we just don't th think things are that compelling relative to the risk. So you mentioned the overbought conditions, and you are somebody who pays a lot of attention to technical indicators and technical signals.

So I want to ask you what what specifically you're paying attention to these days, given the rally that we've seen broadly speaking, and how important maybe something like the two hundred day moving averages for the SMP five, which I believe we failed to break out above once again. I think it was the fourth or fifth time over

the past year that we failed to do that. Sure, And sometimes you know, as we look at fundamentals and technical sometimes they conflict and sometimes they're in alignment obviously the high probability outcomes and when they're more aligned, I would say this kind of mixed readings. UM. You know, the tun to day movement average, it's it's more just a reflection of trend, and we've seen that the market got above it below it. I really think the level is probably the more key level near term from a

technical level. If you were able to get above that, I think that would you know, the technical trends would improve. UM. But so far we've been able to we failed there, So that's something to kind of keep an eye on. And then you know, again, if we can come on level and we say okay, what multiple are you at that level and say okay, you'd be around almost an eighteen, you kind of combine those things. To me, that's more powerful.

You know. It's something that in the technical community community in which I follow a lot, is we we saw you've gotten some things that what's called these kind of breath through us between we've had earlier this year, we've had a lot of participation, and when you have a lot of participation, especially over a ten day period, historically you have these signals that are called breath for us where you know, you have more of a like a two to one ratio of advancing into the client stocks

over a period, and when you test that out looking at a year, they have a high probability of success. And actually, as you come out of our market downturn, you want to see really strong breath. You want to see the market getting very extended overboard. But I will say what's tricky this time is we had a couple of thrust last year that failed. And this is in the case I've been using since the nineteen uh you know, the nineties, and it's plus beat rate or positive rate,

and we had to that fail. So at this point, I think it's encouraging that we've seen some of that. Because of the macro condition, because of where the valuations are, keeps us somewhat more skeptical. The other thing that I think you want to look at is just you know, where's the leadership And right now, if you if you go sector by sector in this market, it's hard really to see where the leadership is. Tech made a relative

low at the end of last year. It's bounced back, you know, so okay, communications bounce back from an over soul condition. You know, finances were doing a bit better, but now kind of given some of that back. Defensive which we've been more positive on, their kind of mixed. So what I'm looking for is will the will sector leadership please stand up because you just have a lack of that right now. Broadly, as far as what I'm looking at, do you think it would be more of

a factor leadership, you know, value over growth something like that. Yeah, I mean, I do think it makes sense. It seemed like there's more of a consensus view that values should have perform were we are overweight value and part of the reason why a world word value is you had also, you know, a decade of underperformance and we were skeptical that technology, after the big gains has had over the

last decade, regains leadership. So we just we still like areas that have some unique things like industrials thinking about restoring there's a lot of discussion about the defense spending domestically, but think about over in Europe as far as a rising defense spending over time or even our strategic you know, battle with China, like but it's probably going to be more you know, the defense spending over time. Secondly, so we still like that yeah, so again that would kind

of lead you more towards a value tilt relatives to growth. Mike, I have to call you out about overweight. No, oh my gosh, no, you just talking about being overweight. I am skipped right over Keith's eminem reference. Yeah, I hoping that was good. I caught it, of course I did. But I want to share something with you what I did today and chat GPT, which is I guess the

buzz right now right, Yeah. I did a search for eight style rap with the Federal Reserve and I was very impressed with what it came back, so put together a rap song for me. I just need a chorus, and I was gonna ask, uh, since you are also good on these podcasts, maybe Mike and you could join the chorus with me. Oh my gosh, you need to send Yeah, whatever lyrics that came up with, you need to send them to us. I think Keith wants to rap.

I think I think he does. You'll have to. You'll have to come back next week with the whole like song wrap time. Okay, Yeah, you need to. You need to share this with us, absolutely, we'll tweet it. I didn't know chat GBT when gangster like that. That's interesting. Yeah, it's funny. Even the rappers are in trouble. I guess well, you know, honestly, I would be a little bit nervous if you saw this, uh, the lyrics that he came

up with. Because over the weekend, um, you know, I was talking to one of my colleagues and I was like saying, let's see if chat GPT can tell me what happens to the market after it's down, you know, and he's like, oh, you're using it wrong. You can you know, you can basically ask it to develop a poem or I love let it to your significant other. I'm like, okay, so it's it's pretty impressive. I can't wait to see. It's impressive and scary for people in

our business. It's very scary if market stories can be uh written by k let's um, let's move over to the fundamental side for a minute. Be because I feel like just about everyone I've talked to recently does not believe the earnings estimates that we're looking after three Almost to a person, especially top down people such as yourself, think, uh, no way do we get you know, any sort of

positive earnings growth this year? I think Sevita Subramanian last week on the show talking about a ten percent drop in earnings UH, which I I feel like would be a pretty ugly outcome for this market if they if they sniff that type of outcome coming UH for the

whole year. How are you thinking about earnings? You know, we've gotten that first trickle of earnings, a lot of the banks, a few other companies, UH starting to get more into the industrials and whatnot, anything pop out for this reporting season, and especially how you're thinking about the whole year as far as earnings growth were lack thereof sure And maybe before I go specifically to earnings, I think even if you have a view that earnings are

going to be stable and that the void earing estimates for this year, which is around two thirty for the SNP, is the right earning estimates, which which we're a skeptical of. Even at that, you're still treating at you know, around the seventeen and a half multiple. So and now if you think that there's earnings risk, which we do, then

the the PE multiple is actually above that. So that's so I think at this point again, thinking about risk reward, I think right now even using that it's just not that favorable on them that But going to specifically to your question, one thing we look at is trend earnings over a cycle. And when we do that and we look at trend earnings, that does bring us to a number, you know, closer to two hundred for the SMP. Whether that happens you know, by the end of this year

or early into next year, you know, is debatable. But I think there's more downside and and you know, historically around recessions, as most of us know, is that earnings go down about I think that's a bit severe. I think companies have done a tremendous job of handling this downturn, and you know, so I think something in the ten percent um you know, hairdcut is more reasonable to expect.

But again, if you if you apply that haircut and you look at market valuations, you're just not that attractive, especially relative to where yields are. You know, the yields are about um well not anymore. They were almost double the tenure average, but they've obviously pulled back here, uh in the last last few weeks. And Mike mentioned we've already heard from some of the banks and the some of the earning s reports have started to trickle out.

So what from what we've seen so far has stood out to you and in terms of any big themes or any worrying signals you Honestly, it's it's a bit premature. I mean, we had the financials, it was mixed. You saw you know, differences from you know, if if folks businesses that that depend on investment, banking, um and trading versus wealth management. So I don't know if there's a big read there. I will say going into the earnings

this earning season, there were a lot of estimate cuts. Um, what I'm gonna really be focused on as we get you know, more broader earnings that get a better tells you know, what's happening on the inflation side, and also what's honestly, consumers pushed back a bit more, right, so that's gonna hurt margines. Margins are still near record levels, have come down some, but also where those margins are. But again, I think it's a bit premature to have

a good feel. I expect that it will be somewhat of a mixed earnings period and we're going to start this show more weakness in the courts ahead as the economy shows more substantial weakening that way we've seen because well if you look at Atlanta GDP now and some of these things, the the overall economy is still held in there pretty decently into the fourth quarter. That's what guys in Atlanta. Look at the Atlanta GDP now. Yes, I think, if I'm not mistaken, your bills might play

a playoff game in Atlanta? Isn't that true? If all goes right? Hello, knock on all the wood all around you, so you'll get a playoff game after all? Keith that we look forward to it. But a diplomatic answer. Yeah. Um. Just to wrap things up here, Uh, one thing about the end. It's not necessarily earning season itself that's bringing it out, but just coincidentally, is um seeing some really sort of alarming uh job layoff announcements? Uh you know

we're recording here. On Wednesday. Microsoft just announced ten thousand layoffs. Amazon, I think announce something like eighteen thousand. We've seen the banks a lot of some layoffs, you know, more than your typical uh calling of the flocket goldman that sort of thing. Yet we still have this just off the charts number of job openings, uh near record low unemployment. Um,

how do you see that all playing out? You know, is it a matter of there's you know, people losing good high end tech jobs and picking up the slack on the low end the service jobs that are available, and and it sort of becomes a wash but a much lower paying uh sort of job for some of these people that that got laid off, or or how do you see it playing out from a macro perspective?

It it's certainly job cuts can be uh sadly be good news for the company's individual share price, But I wonder at what point we have to start worrying about it from the macro level as far as the signal it's sending. Sure, any right, I Mean this just goes to the kind of the complexity of the not only market, but the economy. I think the high profile tech job layoffs that you're seeing, I think that's a function that

there was so much demand that was brought forward. If you look at you know, Microsoftics and Meta and Amazon, look at where their job levels, employment levels were in two thousand nineteen, and then compare where it is now. I mean, we're in some of these areas were forty above, so they you know, if you look back now based on you know, that kind of pull forward the oversupplied of workers. So I still think we'll see a reallocation.

You know, there was I think there was a Wallhreet Journal article last week that discussed that these tech folks are being laid off. The good news is they're finding other jobs relatively quickly. The service side still seems relatively strong with seeing that some of the airlines and if anyone goes through a restaurant out it still seems somewhat buoyant. But I do think as we move later in the year, probably by mid year, I think you'll start to see

that pick up to more levels. I mean more it's the somewhat high levels, I should say, because initial job as claims, even though we see these big headlines, has still been you know, pretty pretty low by historical standards. But we do think that's going to eventually start to move up and at some point to remember that the job market is one of its like the most lagging indicator that we have, right it's one of the last

things that turned before a recession um as well. So that's also I think coursing some confusion, Keith Learner of Truest great to get your thoughts on the market. I hope we can have you back again one day. But with your rap. Yeah yeah, we needs a rap name. We've got to get him a rep name. Let me think, help meat. You you're all good at you know, making something sound better than it is. Right, that's that's that's why she's my partner. You're up to the challenge. I

think a lot of good rap out of Atlanta. So he's he's he's coming from it's coming from a good pedigree down there. But Keith, we can't let you go until we hear the craziest thing you heard from markets this week. But since Phildon is bragging about having three or two or however, why don't you start? I have to. I'm melding them together into one theme, which is that formerly maybe we can call them disgrace crypto people making

a comeback. Another rapper, crypto comeback, Yes, another rapper. So one is Heather Morgan, also known as the Crocodile of Wall Street Razzle Razzle con Yes that's right, is her rap name. So she she was infamous for her for her rap videos and wrap and for and for stealing a lot bitcoin four point five billion worth of bitcoin from bitin x. So the story this week is that she was offered a job at a tech company in the role this This is quote from the story in

the role of growth marketing and business development specialists. So how bad can the tech job market really be? When someone out on bail for allegedly having a few billion and stolen bits on house arrest and I think that they asked the judge to okay her going to the office. I would love to hear her bosses explain me too. We don't know which tech company. I have another one though, Okay, you remember the two co founders of three A C. So that's the crypto hedge fund that blew up last May,

last June. So the two of them, Suzu and Kyle Davies. They're looking to raise twenty five million dollars for a new venture, which is a crypto exchange. They're looking to do it a SAP and the name that they had on the pitch decks was g t X, which sounds very very similar to f t X g t X. What's its sent today? Comes after? It's just the next next next episode as they said plus one. I bet they got it too. I'm gonna go out on them and say that they raised that money probably from razzle

con herself. All right, Keith Vildonna came prepared. But how

about you you see anything crazy recently in markets? I don't think it's as fun as Orville Donna has, but I was thinking more kind of interesting from our market perspective, which we touched on, is that, you know, the European banks have ripped up, and we have you know a lot of these fang and technology stocks down forty and as you think about the last you know, decade before, you know, before the pandemic, it was all about low rates, you know, paying a premium for growth, and probably the

most hated asset out there was these European banks that got hurt from all those things. So it's interesting that we're seeing now, you know, a period of QT somewhat higher interest rates, somewhat higher inflation, and these European banks, the the unloved asset, which I have a lot of problems, by the way, still UM ripping an out performance. So that was that was one not as cool as Danna's UM and thenb just one follow up to because I need to to have and this is not that fun.

But I just I think another thing that came out recently, and I think what we saw this with the U n UM talking about China's population over the next century will decline by about six hundred million, and I think we most of us probably saw that headline. But to put that in perspective, that's two times the population of the US. Almost you know that that decline. So those are my my two. But again, I really feel like that was a tough follow up to that. Mine are better.

Don't tell yourself. Rally and European banks, if you had told anyone that a few years ago, I think they would degree it's that that's the craziest thing anyone's seen. Pretty good. All right, I'll give you mine. I'm dipping back into the alternative asset class that I love so much. Uh. Kobe Bryant's jersey listing on Southby's up for auction. So this is one of the jerseys he wore in the two thousand and seven two thousand and eight season he was m v P. They went to the finals and

I think they got beat by Boston. I'd have to I'd have to double check that UH, and I got the story. It's a c NBC story courtesy of the Twitter handle at Zalvani. At Salvanni a new UH contributor to the Craziest Thing, so we thank thank him. To me, what the expected price for this jersey is not the interesting part of it. They think it will go for as much as seven million dollars. That's what I was

going to guess. Of course you were, of course, which they say will be the highest priced piece of Kobe Bryant memorabilia ever ever to go up to me, The interesting thing is how many times be Brian were this jersey in a game? So to play the prices precise, Keith, you two are gonna have to tell me how many times you think he wore this jersey. It's a home jersey, and I'll give you some stats here that that might

help you out. Eighty two games regular season games in the NBA, plus another about playoff and and finals games, so call it hundred and change games home jersey. So he'd be wearing a her home jersey at approximately called fifty games in the season. How many times do you think he were this particular jersey in a game? And it's surprising to me. Do you want to have Keith go first? Keith, what do you think we're playing by

the price is right? Because then she gets the advantage. Yes, but it's but it's called the price is precisely Okay, I'll happily go first because I haven't answer you. Go, I'm gonna say once, because he wore it once, like why would he wear it again? He's just he's a million, right, He's not like some journeyman signed from the EuroLeague. He has so many he had so many jersey, new jersey every night. Yeah, exactly right. I'm going with once. I'm gonna going to the side. Then I'm gonna go I'm

gonna go fifty. I'm gonna say what I said every single day. She's gonna say once. I'm gonna say every single day he slept with that. I think we gotta push. It's twenty five times he were this jersey wow, which to me was surprising. On the high side, I'm with you, I would think one I'm going to wear a new jersey every night, I'm gonna auction the used jersey off so or throw it in the stands. Half the games he were the same jersey. I think that's crazy. I don't know. Sure do I win? I think I win?

Keith went over Keith. He could have won. You knew the traces right roles too. You know if I figured, if I, if I gave that, maybe maybe you all will have me back on. Well, we have to have you back on for the wrap. Yeah. Well, and Vldon is never gonna let you live this down. But never. Every time we talk going forward, I'm gonna be Kobe Bright. I'm not wearing the same jersey times. You think there'd be blood on it and be all sweaty. I don't, Mike,

you are no Kobe Bryant. That's true. That's true. Maybe that explains it. It It was his lucky jersey. That's funny. He's seen me play, Unfortunately I did. I grew up right down the street from him. Basically he was Laura Marry and I was Westchester. Really I didn't know that. Yeah, that's about where the comparisons. Keith Learner, great to have you. You could have won that one. Man. I don't know. Learn your lesson. Always always go for the jugular learner

your lesson. I'm gonna hear that from my friends now thanks a lot. Great to catch up with you, Keith. Will you hope we can get you back. Yeah, it's been a lot of fun. Thanks so much for having me. Thanks Keith, What Goes Up. We'll be back next week and so then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took the time to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can find us on Twitter

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