Can Fed Fight the Virus?

one for the record books. As the coronavirus continued to spread around the globe, Treasury yields plunged to all time lows, the tenure below one point three for the first time ever, and by one measure, stock volatility surpassed that of the fourth quarter route in with the SMP five falling into a ten correction, and Sarah, I supposed, should we conclude the episode with the craziest thing I saw in markets? Should we continue that tradition? I think we should continue

that tradition. Yeah, we have a couple of columns this week, we have someone who waited on Twitter, so we have a lot a lot to go around. I boy up stain this week it is, But you know, I kind of feel like Michael Jordan's when he retired from basketball. He just got he was so good and it's so good at winning. You went every week. You might have got four week off. Give the rest of us a chance Yeah, he went and played baseball. I might go

switch to the rational sane market. Yeah, I don't know, Okay, yeah, because that's so exciting that and also I totally blank. I could not find I even contacted Vil Donna. Are are crazy in a week like this. I'm shocked that you blanked and you couldn't find something that really Uh says a lot about how good you're actually are at finding crazy every Sorry it's crazy this week. Yeah. Luckily today we have some great guests here with us to help make sense of all of it. Yeah. Absolutely, joining

us for the first time. We're very excited to have her. She is the chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. Cathy Shones, Welcome to the show. Thanks for having me and coming back to the show. A real favorite of the what Goes Up fans out there. Uh, this guy actually has his own fan club. It's not a club, it's one person, that's one guy, but he's very vocal. So so Eli Panamey. If in fact, that is your real name, and I'm pretty sure it's not your real name, Uh,

this one's for you. But this is Chris Nag, Executive editor of Bloomberg News, he's going to tell us to the decimal point when this stock market correction will end. Isn't that correct? That We're going to reveal that later, So stick around for that. But Cat, I wanted to start with you. I know, this is the type of week where I my heart goes out to strategists who, uh, the ink is barely dry on your year head forecast,

and BOYD does everything change quick? Right? Yeah? I hate to bring it up, but I want to give you credit for one thing that was in your original forecast that I find very interesting, and that was you were underweight how you'll debt junk bonds basically, and uh because do you foury in that particular as a class I think was eye popping, uh, leading into this coronavirus episodes.

I mean razor thin spreads. Um, yes, there were some green shoots in the economy, but it just seemed it seemed, uh, you know, to you for it to be to be really good, too good to be true. So I'm just wondering, you know, if we could start with that sort of notion that high yield. I feel like it's time to really worry about high yield. Looking at the spreads on the Bloomberg Barkley's Index. I think they were like three forty basis points a week ago up to and that

sort of rapid widening of spreads is pretty alarming. How far does it go? I mean, is this um economic damage from this virus enough to start worrying about sort of defaults and and massive downgrades and that sort of thing. Well, we were worried before this happened, partly because the economy was already showing signs of slowing down a bit, and the spreads were so tight that there was no margin

for air. And that was the reason for our underweight you know, why why buy those bonds and get so little yield and take so much risk um And our concerns really centered around a couple of industries, energy being one, which has been in sort of a secular decline now,

and also the corporate profits were not rising. We look at the actual corporate profits, not the ones that the management likes to talk about, So we actually look at the real ones, like the items left in yeah, exactly, and those have been sort of deteriorating for quite some time, and corporate leverage going up at the same time. And then when you look at the asset class. You look at the loan part of the asset class, because most of these issuers have not only how you bonds, they

have loans as well. And you look at the loans and about seventy of the loans now are covenant light, meaning there's not much protection for investors. So even before this happened, the risk of rising defaults or problems with refinancing if should we hit you know, a speed bump was there. Obviously we didn't know this would be the speed bump or where it would come from. But when you're priced for beyond perfection, it just made sense to us just stand back and say we don't want a

part of this until it's more attractive. So we've seen high old spreads widening now at the widest level since August. I believe also there have been many reports out this week about bond offerings drying up in the United States in Europe. Is that something we could potentially expect to continue or to worsen, particularly if we do see this virus spread around the globe, And it's really hard to

estimate exactly what the fallout is going to be. Yeah, absolutely, I mean it's not unusual for high yield spreads to to jump a couple of hundred base points pretty quickly when things go south. Um, so currently at over they're just back to the long term averages, right and even like they're under value right now, So we could go to five hundred or five fifty over. I mean this is maybe now we made I to move from underweight to at least neutral. We might start looking for attractive

opportunities where they exist. But with all the uncertainty about the virus and what impact it will have, Um, it's probably too early to jump in there with both feet right and the on the flip side of that spread. Obviously, the treasury yields are just as start mentioned. Uh what are we blow? Are we blow on the tenure? I mean, real yields are negative? Now? Um, how low can they go? I mean we've heard people sort of uh prophesies about oh, don't be surprised if we see negative yields in the US.

I mean, could we really uh contemplate such a it could happen? Um in our view? You know, you you'd probably have to have a situation where we were going into a global recession and the FED was not keeping up by lowering short term, they could go to zero and maybe stay there, and in the worst case scenario, you could see two five tenure yields go negative. That's not a forecast, but it's not beyond comprehension, right, but you'd still see the sort of the bill yields that

front end of the curve positive, you think. I think the FED would really really like to not go to negative rates because of the impact on the banking system and just mechanically, you know, money market funds, and that hasn't been entirely successful where it has been done. Now. You might get some argument from European Central Bank on that, but I think by and large are some question marks as to whether it's really an effective strategy. Never say never.

I think they might if if we were really in a deflationary environment. But um my bias is to say that that's really kind of a small probability event. Stepping back and taking a little bit of a wider view when we're trying to figure out what the coronavirus might actually mean for the global economy, be constantly here that it's going to cause supply shocks. Also, it does now appear that it will cause demand shocks as well, if people can't get out of their houses or go to work.

I mean, in that scenario, sure many people can get the ball market saying the ball market is screaming for the FED to ease once again, I mean, what help would that actually even do in this scenario. Yeah, and I think it has pretty widely accepted that adding liquidity in this environment probably isn't going to cure the cure the disease, produce a vaccine, or make people go to

the movies or the grocery store. Having said that, though, um, I think one thing it does is it's a signaling device, right. It says, Okay, we're on it. It's sort of the whatever it takes that we got out of draggy in Europe, that we're going to provide support and liquidity. And if financial conditions continue to tighten, which you know, the credit spread story is part of that, they can loosen financial conditions a bit by lowering rates and that can help

on the margin. But I think part of the hesitancy we're hearing from FED officials is they know that there's only limited impact they can have, and they don't want use all their tools if this thing is going to pass in six weeks or something. I wonder if quantitative easing would sort of come back on the table before even as your percent fed rate, you know, especially aimed at the corporate market. You know, if we do see

that deterioration, I suppose that's a possibility as well. I think they probably are discussing right now what what possible tools they could use. UM, it's pretty obvious from public statements that as of at least yesterday they did not have a quorum for even a rate cut, because there's a number of officials coming out and saying, oh, it's too early to tell. So I think before they start signaling any change in policy, they need to get everybody on board as to what they want to do and

what their reasoning is going to be. Chris, come on in here, because full disclosure, we record as a Thursday, and as of right now, the SMPS on track for its worst week since two and granted that we can do thousan eight was much worse, but still that says something about the velocity of what we've seen. Why is it do you think that we are seeing such this dramatic and fast downturn. A couple of things come to mind.

One is it's exactly what we're discussing right now that it's not clear that the FED, as it has every other time something like this has happened for the last x amount of yours, has some has some blueprint for for reversing anything. It really is not in the business of curing new viruses, to put it mildly. And the other thing I think you have to look at in the stock market is the slope downward somewhat reflects the slope up where we had an enormous orgy of bullishness

over the previous four or five months. You uh look at tech stocks basically parabolic rise rises. You had a lot of um individual investors jumping into the market. Just comes right after all of the brokerage is cut their cut their commission rates to zero. A lot of hedge funds get in it. And part of any reversal like this is going to be what it's reversing. And it's reversing basically a steep rally, and it's coming one right after another, and it looks becauses it to look very bad. Sorry,

I gotta I'm gonna talk with Eli after this. I'm gonna I'm gonna wait for that to somehow up here in one of the stories that go out, what's going to be yours? Now? That would be a good head on, But you know, uh, say the FED. I mean, and you look at the futures market, FED fund futures, they're pricing what two or three rate cuts by the end of the year already. Um, it doesn't seem to a

matter of the stock market. I mean, would that signal from the FED, if if whoever sup next on the FED speaking circuits, you know, pretty much signal that rates coming. I mean, who knows if that would work in right on one thing, I would say we mentioned QUWI, and in the minds of a lot of stock investors that are not necessarily most expensive minds in the world, QUI has been going on for the last five months that they're can They're they're convinced that the I are just

which I get. But at a psychological level, again, we're not talking about necessarily the brightest bulbs in the tree. They really the idea that the FED has been doing something to stimulate the economy through its repo actions is pretty much lodged in. So you have a bunch of people who are like, wait, what happened to all of all of that stimulus we thought we were getting. So in a way, it kind of it's kind of a little bit of a laboratory for whether or not stimulus

would work. I think in my nursing home there there's debate over whether the repo actions were Kui will will be raging on forever, And I gotta say, I'm I'm kind of one of those those dumb stock guys where

I get it. It's not the same as Kuwi, But Kathy, they're gonna have to keep up with this, with these repo actions longer than they expected, I think, now right, I mean, and you know, basically what they're doing in the repo market, you know, intentional or not, it's bringing those money market rates, you know, lower than inflation, turning

them negative on a on a real basis. Usually what they're doing is keeping the Fed Funds rate in the corridor that they established, So um the is in the balance sheet at the short end is really not stimulus to the economy, is not quee. It's simply to manage the Fed Funds rate in the area that they want to keep it in. So the misinterpretation of that was pretty widespread. The one thing I will say is when they did quee, a couple of things happened. Long term

rates went up because it built up inflation expectation. That didn't happen this time. And secondly, they told us they were doing que They were it's a signaling thing, and they were trying to get people to be you know, bullish and and risk taking. And this time they said, now we're just trying to keep the FED funds rate in a range, and it's all plumbing. And the market

ran with the story that they like. But we'll say a few emails landed in my inbox this week pointing to the fact that, yeah, this is a horrible week in the stock market, but if you look at the level of the Fed's balance sheet hasn't been increasing as quickly as possible. And now Cathy is plowing her eyes. But you know, I'm looking at it from that sort

of lizard brain stock market guy, right. I mean, you had you had cash interest rates money market mutual funds at about two and a quarter above the rate of inflation. You bring them back down, so I don't know what they're right now, one and a half or so. I mean, and maybe not be similar to the economy. I feel like it is stimulative to the stock market to some degree. You see that those balances, Uh you know, I see I keeps a running tally of money market bounces that

had been going up and up, and it kind of plateaued. Um. So can they still sort of unwind these repo operations like they had planned in the spring. Oh, you know, I think so. Um. I think they want to keep it going through tax time. But we heard Jamie Diamond come out and say that the his bank will now use the discount window, which is one of the reasons that things were, um not working properly, is because they were reluctant to use the discount window because the stigma

attached to it after the financial crisis. So if he's reversing that policy, there'll be less need for them to inject liquidity. I'm thinking back to two thousand eighteen and imagining JP Morgan staying we're gonna tap the discount window to alleviate the stigma. Stigma, and Bear Sterns going, yeah,

us too, We're gonna do it to alleviate the stigma. Yeah, thinking back to when Jamie Diamond said we could see four percent on the tenure now we're talking about I also want to get your take because if we look at the curve, we're seeing an interesting divergence, whereas if you look at the spread between three month tenure yields now pretty deeply inverted once again, and in a way we've seen a re steepening in two's tens. What what is the message here if you can actually take away

any coherent message at this point from the curve. Yeah, I think there is a question of what's what's actually being signal and what's sort of a consequence of all the various things going on. Um, the three months ten year, I think is telling you that the market thinks the fat is too tight, and the market expects the fad to cut rates, and we've had an interpretation at the long end of the curve that this is a deeply

deflationary event. Now, sometimes supply shocks are traditionally supposed to be inflationary, but I think, um, the assumption is this, suppose supply and demand and you're seeing crude oil prices crash and other commodity prices go down, and the assumption is that demand is going to shrink as well. So it's been very deflationary and that's pulled down long term rates. The belly of the curve, which had been actually inverted,

is just kind of lagging behind now. So I'm not I'm not using the two stan as a great signal from here. I wonder what weight and CPI cruise ship pricing has in a yeah, but uh, one thing A story I helped that on the bonds team before this real risk off episode started, was basically about how thin like we were talking about how thin spreads were. Ye,

not just in corporates, in in munies. Everywhere you look you have Greek tenure yields below one percent, Italian tenure yields below one percent, and you know, the spread to German buns pretty much the lowest they had been in the past decade or so. And back for America, their weekly fund manager survey came out and I forgot. I think it was like the second biggest risk that people saw was quote unquote the bond bubble popping um. Obviously we've got other risks to worry about now, but I mean,

do you believe there was a bond bubble? And if so, I mean, how do you explain and even if you don't think it's a bubble, how do how does one think about why there was so much money coming into the bond market when the stock market was also doing well. I mean, it just is it as simple as they're just being this savings glued around the world, this sort of record long economic expansion and just too much investor capital looking for places ago. I think that that's the

main thing that's going on. I mean, I've been asked about the bond bubble literally since and and someday all those people predicting it will be right, yeah exactly if they're still alive, Yes, exactly. But you have the secular trends, right, the aging demographics around the world, and um, the savings glut and decline in inflation inflation expectations, So that's that's

a bit. You have an overhang of debt, which actually depresses economic activity to some extent, and then you have this tremendous demand for yield, I mean just incredible um demand for yield from pension funds, insurance companies, you know, you name it, individual investors, and it's almost like you get so low that people have to buy more just to get the income that they need. And so UM, I think that those are the main drivers. And the expectation that the central banks will not be able to

raise rates anytime soon. Well that I do want to bring it back to the stock market because in a way there is a bright side to the sell off, and that being maybe the normalization of valuations. So now the SMP trading around it's average over the last five years. But isn't there a sense that we're going to have to see the e and earnings estimates come into I mean, we've already heard from a good amount of companies, but shouldn't that list only grow? Yeah, you're talking about the

valuation versus forward estimates. Estimates, Um, they do look much. We're talking Thursday. On Thursday, which was the scene of one of the more harrowing selloffs of the last ten years. This morning and they got down to sub seventeen, which you're right, is about average. Certainly, you lose the easy

criticism the markets over valued when that's true. But exactly those earnings estimates have to come true, and the whole point of the sell off is that they probably won't as a result of devirus into the degree that they won't, that's what everyone's in the stock market who thinking about such things as trying to figure out like what is snarrowing supply chains and dimming consumer markets? What does that do to that estimate? If the estimate falls at all,

then things start to look expensive again. Yeah, it's to be. And I hate to make the two thousand and eight comparison, even though I guess we are in the worst week since two thousand April. To me that the kind of eerie similarity is not just people cutting forecasts. Uh, not companies cutting forecast, but literally just were withdrawing them and saying,

not getting another number, we can't replace this. Um. It's almost like I forget which bank it was that came out in two thousand and seven and said we just simply can't price these mortgage bonds. Um. So is that sort of information vacuum? Uh? Kind of the biggest worry right now? I think it is. I mean, earnings estimate. Estimating earnings even the best of times is a pretty

feudal endeavor. The Bloomberg column This a few years ago pointed out that by far the best indicator of what earnings will be next year, better than animal views, strategist views, what companies say is what they are this year, it comes much closer to being an accurate estimate of what

they are in subsequent years. I think the two thousand and eight comparison, while a little bit extreme, is the right one, because what happened in two thousand seven is it It never really looked like valuations got out of control, because no one really looks at valuations the year after the earnings the earnings. UH stocks fell a ton in two thousand and they never there never looked like any

kind of valuation. But but if you look at two thousand seven prices versus two thousand eight earnings, which ends up being the key comparison, stocks are priced like eighty times. That's why more or s you had so often the stock market. I'm not saying that's happening. I do wonder though, sure we were due for a correction. The smps now down more than ten percent. But at one point does

this actually start to affect confidence? And just get the sense that if we do start to see this virus spreading around the country and people are being a little bit freaked out on that side, I mean, confidence seems that it's more easily affected if you start to see it coming through to the stock market too, because people are already being affected themselves on a physical level. Yeah, and I think that's one one way that this potentially

turns into a recession. Right. But people stay home, are they're fearful of traveling, um or going about even their daily business, and they cut back. Then you start to get well, if you're not doing much business or layoffs because there's no no demand, demand starts to shrink. You lay people off, then their income shrinks, and that's how

it rolls into a recession. And that's the concern that um, I think the FED would have and and the administration would have right now, is you this this economy has been driven by consumer spending. That's really what's held up. Investment has been kind of sluggish, and uh, foreign demand has been kind of sluggish. So we really need consumers to keep spending to chuggle along at two percent or so. And if this affects that, U, then the risk of

recession starts to really rise, right you know? And I know whenever the monthly jobs numbers come out, I always look to say, well, what was really leading the growth? A lot of sort of restaurant jobs, retail health services. I mean, I guess they're not gonna get it. They're not going to get laid off. They may not want to do the job anymore. True, good point, But those retail restaurant jobs seem very vulnerable. They're the type of jobs that get cut very quick when the tables are empty,

when the malls are empty. Um, I mean, could we see these jobless claims? They surprised a little bit on the upside this week? I think, Yeah, we have President's Day in there, so it gets a little of the seasonality. Might be a problem with actually assessing it, but if we yeah, I mean we're watching jobless claims really carefully because that will be a leading indicator, right is that I'm I was gonna ask, is that the key stat

to watch? Yeah? And we've already seen in the Jolts report new job openings rolling over, which means it's maybe not as robust for the new job market as it has been. And then if you start to see some layoffs come through, then that's going to be concerning. There's another secondary feedback loop that someone's got to mention, which

is that certain candidates political prospects. I think we can say if we say, are potentially affected by the stock market, the one that the market seems to like, the candidate that the incumbent UH could could suffer if the market, if we get a bear market, if you have to face that fact, and that could in and of itself make things worse. And the guy who's been talking about universal healthcare his whole career. Is not that I'm expressing

any kind of political opinion. My fan club will point out that I grew up in eastern Massachusetts, so assume what you will. But the stock market, it's pretty safe to say, likes the sitting guy, and to the extent his prospects are besmirched by what's going on. And with that, I will, of course say that Michael Bloomberg, who was running for president, is the founder of Bloomberg LP, which is the owner of Bloomberg News. And with that, I'll say,

that's all the politics we're gonna have. Fair enough, fair enough. I think it's time for the crazy thing. Even if you're gonna abstain, Mike, it's time for the craziest thing. I am, I'm I am. You know it's like Jordan's retiring, right, Chris, you get it. Chris gets it very much. So yeah, I don't know. But oh, come on, let's my age shaming you. Yeah you are. I'll stop that. I'll stop that. Let's go to the hotline, Sarah, tell people about the hotline.

So remember you can always give us a call at our very own Bloomberg Podcast hotline. That number is six or six three two four three four nine zero. And as you'll hear in a second, if you leave us a message about the craziest things that you guys have heard, or if you have any questions for us, feel free to leave a message and we may even play it on the show, just like this one. Now, Sarah, I know some people listen to podcasts at like one and

a half speed or two speed. Can you get the number again really slow, so so they can get six four six three two four three four nine zero. I can't. I can't do this. I would listen to podcasts slowed down so everyone sounds drunk. I think that would be that would make this one make more sense. Well, let's go to the voicemails. I know we've got two of our well established listeners. They've called us before. We're very happy to hear them again. Uh, let's let's hear what

they have to say. Okay, this is where what goes up. This is Twiggy Sunday, your favorite Twitter character. So here we go. So the dolls going down a thousand and the vix is going nuts. So I turn in the Bloomberg surveillance and who else do I hear? Our own Mike Reagan are undisputed craziest thing winner of all time defeated? And was he talking about none other than Bernie Sanders and some guy on a name Bony save the day in hockey? Hey, that's crazy. I love it. Cheers to Mike.

Love you guys. Tweaking out. I've got to say we always appreciate when you do call in and you let us know what the craziest things are that you've seen in markets. But come on, and I think the quote was undisputed undefeated champions. Yeah right, Michael Jordan, the Michael Jordan, the Michael Jordans, the crazy things, Chiggy, Can you call and say that next time? But the story he's talked about that was the craziest thing that's ever happened in hockey.

Didn't see that? The guy everyone knows the story. I won't even bother but miracle. And all I'd say is I'd like to be I feel like zamboni drivers everywhere are gonna be getting calls from sports agents trying to trying to negotiate that one day. All right, let's hear the other voicemail. Well, my name is Morgan Hill. I'm an investment associate and Laardo, Florida. Obviously, the folatility is

a recent has been a little crazy. But uh, when we woke up this morning, we saw that Walt Disney's UH CEO, Robert Tiger, stepped down UH and shares drop two. But what was ironic about that is there was no announcement of him actually leaving the company until the end of one and he's going to be on the creative aspects out of the business. So with that UM and the new CEO UH stepping in from the head of the parks, I think was a little crazy. So I hope you guys have a great week. It was very

sudden news and big news. But I have to say that my first immediate thought was can you only be CEO of Disney if your name is Bob? My thought was, you know that zamboni driver who got to play goalie. I would make a great Disney movie. So free tip for Bob Boger if you want to turn that stock around, there's there's your next movie. Yeah, there you go. Chris n Do you have a crazy thing? My crazy things are just the a really preposterous number of ridiculous little

stocks that went crazy this week. There were somebody making protective gog. I guess it's not not that these things should go nuts, but has Matt suit maker was up eight someone else And then there was this there's this uh biotech called Vier Farm Vier Pharmaceuticals or biologicals. It's backed by Gates and soft Bank. That this morning, you would think, if you've got the big backers like that, you weren't just some ludicrous shooting bottle rocket type thing.

It doubled over about three minutes about it dirty this morning. That yeah, there's volatility of every variety on the market right now. You know, I would call that an orgy of bullishness. And yeah, and I recommend listeners can now go wash their ears out with soap and water after that. Katy, you don't look to me like you specialize in crazy market observations. You look more of the sane and uh

well reasoned. Well, actually, one thing my team does. First of all, I started my career as a commodity trader, so I've seen a whole lot of crazy uh and I can't really talk about most of it, but can you do the hand signals? Yeah, you are like Chicago Board of Trade today. I was told that if I ever needed a surface to air missile, I should go to the floor. But yeah, there were a lot of things you could find that off exchange trading was very interesting.

But one thing my team does actually is every year we have a bond Issue of the Year award for like this goofy ist craziest thing. Now it's stio early in the year yet to know and there's not much issueance going on, but we we've had some good ones over the years, so we do like crazy market stuff.

But I would say the craziest comment I got this week was from somebody as I was talking about, well, this is why you have treasuries in your asset allocation because when times like this, um, it's the best head you get against the stock market decline. And um he got sort of via mitten he said treasuries are so dangerous if interest rates go up, you know you're gonna get killed. And I like, there's a mentality out there that's worried about a US treasury but not about the

stock market. You know. I was just like, Okay, the worst thing is going to happen is you're going to hold it to majurity and get a low yield that and get your money back. Like why is this in a day like this? Why is this so dangerous to get so afraid? Like who cares if the SMP drops? I don't want to hold the treasury bond. I still have upside, I guess, I don't know. It's the weirdest

it's it's it's it's sort of a visceral reaction. You say treasuries with any maturity and people get freaked out just because of the yield right after thirty six years of them falling. If if you've been watching the SMP go up twenty I feel like, because I recently had to allocate my I ra A and I have to say that I kind of I said that to the Fidelity, But you know why I said it's because you know I sat there for for the last ten years watching the SMP route every year and I'm like, where the

hell am I going to get that new treasury? And you know what I should have done, it turns out is put every cent of it into a treasury. Year to day, long term treasuries are up eight percent hindsight is everything? All right? Well, you teesus, we're gonna have to get you back for the craziest bond offering of the year. But that one's that a worded in the year. We usually do it in November. November, okay, Sarah, will

marker calendar. My calendar is on a napkin that I left somewhere in the mark my calendar like a months out. All right, Sarah, A lot of pressure on you to deliver this week the craziest thing you saw. I I'm just going to give my Colleagueluke Callo shout out because he did have the Business Week cover this week and it a great story and it is also just crazy. So the headline of it is read, it's profane greedy

traders are shaking up the stock market. And essentially what this is a story about is about those on Reddit. It's Wall Street bets who essentially go on and they all it seems like they all come together behind a

single name. They all think that they can buy calls that will make the dealers and buy underlying shares, and it pushes prices way up and up, and names like Virgin, Galactic, Tesla, Plug Power, Lumber Liquidators, all these stocks that have been going absolutely crazy have all been discussed on Wall Street bets, and it really is just it's unbelievable. It's it's pretty.

It's a crazy story. I will say, you know, that almost was not the cover story and told the editor came to me as he does in a panic often because he was afraid he might have to hold that story for a week, and asked me to write a cover You're in a nice story of my story. That was a fine story of Chris was. Chris made so much fun of that story. I did not he did, Oh okay, he did the dead cat that you don't I think, right? That was unnecessary as a cat mother.

I think people understand, Well, you need to, you need to understand, you need to explain it now. I had to. Well, I was about Robert Schiller's new book Narrative Economics, and then Narrative in the Markets, and uh uh, you know, I use some of the metaphors like Wall of Glory and the dead cat bounce, and Chris thought, I explained, I don't have any problem with people say I do have a problem with people saying that cat bounce. But I didn't feel like we needed like a three paragraph

exsis physics of a cat. Cats stopped off the building the tree, wasn't it? And then you come on and lay were God God with the the numbers that the subscriptions are just going to go away into this podcast before who will rewind and listen to you talk about that? All right, well, I think we need to end it here, Mike and Chris um. But with that said, Kathy Jones Chris Nig, thank you both so much for joining the show today. Thank you, what goes up. We'll be back

next week. Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took the time to rate interview the show on Apple Podcast so more listeners can find us. And you can find us on Twitter. Follow me at at Sarah pon Sack, Mike is at re Anonymous, Kathy Jones is at Kathy Jones and Chris nag Is at Chris nag One. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts. What Goes Up is produced by Tofur Foreheads.

The head of Bloomberg podcast is Francesca Levie. Thanks for listening, See you next time.