Short: The Alberta separation question

Two-in-five Canadians think Alberta separation is a real possibility — even though most would reject the idea, new polling shows.

In the wake of the 2025 federal election, exit polling from Research Co. reveals that 40 per cent of Canadian voters believe Alberta separation could actually happen. That number jumps to 58 per cent within Alberta — though only a minority would welcome it. Speaking with host Rob Brown on West of Centre Short, pollster Mario Canseco says it’s the highest level of perceived plausibility his firm has ever recorded. He notes the framing of the question — posed in the context of a Liberal victory in provinces that overwhelmingly vote Conservative — may have nudged some respondents toward seeing separation as more likely. But with Donald Trump repeatedly invoking the idea of a 51st state and Premier Danielle Smith lowering the bar for referendums, Canseco defends the framing as realistic for a region where discontent runs deep.

Canseco says the broader trend is clear: younger voters and conservatives are more open to separation, and that aligns with other national data. This isn’t just post-election chatter, he argues — it’s a growing feeling of estrangement that Ottawa can’t afford to ignore. 

Note: No poll is absolute, especially one conducted amid the unique and evolving circumstances of a developing story. This online survey was conducted with 1,201 voters between April 27 and 29, 2025, and carries a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.