Carney’s win sparks hope in some, wariness in others - podcast episode cover

Carney’s win sparks hope in some, wariness in others

May 02, 202542 minSeason 6Ep. 226
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Summary

Kathleen Petty explores the implications of the recent election results, focusing on Mark Carney's win and its impact on Alberta and Canada. The episode features perspectives from Calgary voters and political strategists, discussing topics like Western alienation, Danielle Smith's strategies, and the potential for unity. Guests debate Carney's leadership and Alberta's role in Confederation, suggesting ways to bridge divides and address regional concerns.

Episode description

Mark Carney’s steady economic message resonated with voters, helping the Liberals secure a fourth consecutive term — though still a minority. But the results have stirred fresh tensions with Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith is moving ahead to lower the bar for referendums as talk of separatism re-emerges. In this episode of West of Centre, host Kathleen Petty explores what the outcome means for Canada’s future — and Alberta’s increasingly restless role within Confederation.

Three Calgary voters — Darryl, Sunil and Chelsea — offer raw, personal reflections. While Chelsea calls the election a rejection of Trumpism, Sunil, a disappointed Conservative supporter, questions whether his party can ever win under the current political setup. The panel debates Carney’s appeal to centrists, the collapse of the NDP, and whether Alberta’s political class is rallying voters or fanning division.

Later, former Conservative cabinet minister Monte Solberg and political strategist Stephen Carter join for a spirited post-mortem. Carter jokes about his Strategists podcast partner Corey Hogan’s surprise win in Calgary Confederation, while both guests assess Carney’s leadership, Pierre Poilievre’s limits and Smith’s political calculations. Despite their differences, they agree: if the Liberals want to ease Western alienation, Alberta needs a real voice in cabinet — and Smith has a window to show she can build bridges, not just burn them.

Transcript

1942. Europe. Soldiers find a boy surviving alone in the woods. They make him a member of Hitler's army. He was Jewish. Could a story so unbelievable. be true I'm Dan Goldberg I'm from CBC's Personally Toy Soldier available now wherever you get your podcasts This is a CBC Podcast. is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never ever happen.

He campaigned as a kind of antidote to Trump and his tariffs. And this week, Canadians decided, yep, Mark Carney is the man to steer the country through economic turbulence. Welcome to West of Centre. I'm Kathleen Petty. It's great to be back. And I bet quite a few liberal MPLX are saying the same thing. After years of staring down likely defeat, the party pulls off...

A stunning comeback under their new leadership, winning a fourth consecutive term, albeit a minority. But Kearney knows it's not business as usual. And now, more than ever, it is a time for ambition. It is a time to be bold to meet this crisis with overwhelming positive force of a united Canada. Because we are going to build. Build, baby, build.

Well, I think Albertans are hurt and betrayed. That's how I think Albertans are feeling. I think Canada as a whole got a sense of that feeling of hurt and betrayal with the way the Americans are treating us right now. We've been treated that way for the last 10 years. Premier Daniel Smith is moving to make it easier for citizens to trigger a referendum and efforts to have one in separation while those are already being mobilized. So let's explore the perils and possibilities ahead.

Political strategist Stephen Carter and former Conservative Cabinet Minister Monty Solberg are standing by. But first... Let's check in with our panel of voters that we spoke with in the early days of the election campaign. Daryl Stanier runs a logistics supply chain business. He's a father of three. Sunil Shah is an electrical engineer and a father of two. And Chelsea Mattis is a research scientist and mother of two.

Well, good to see all of you. I'm glad you all survived the election. It was a heck of a campaign, so now we're on the other side of it. and we will have Parliament resume later on this month. But as you look at the results, how do you interpret what they mean for the country and Daryl specifically for the province? Well, I think the election results clearly speak for themselves. I didn't think I got hit by a bus. It was sort of expected.

So again, I'm not shocked. I'm just disappointed that Canadians were overall fooled by the mask of what I watched unfold being a story of fear that I don't think is really relevant. So, you know, we ended up going true blue in the West, mostly all the West. Of course, BC is always upside down, in my opinion. I think everything was as it was pulled to be. I'm glad we didn't end up with a majority.

But I think we actually have a de facto majority given the volume of seats between the Liberals and the NDP. You know, an interesting little factoid, the Liberals actually... had net losses east of Manitoba, and they had a net gain of eight seats. In West? Yeah, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, NBC, obviously not.

in Alberta. NDP. Yeah. That was the NDP swing, wasn't it? Indeed. So, I mean, it's just sort of interesting. There's different ways to interpret it. But Chelsea, for you, how do you interpret what this result means for us? Well, to me, this was an election of rejection. It was rejection of Trumpism was greater than the rejection of a liberal fourth term.

And I don't think that that's particularly surprising. I think like when we've heard that, you know, the voter turnout for this round was very, very high. that's kind of what you would expect. I think that fear is the greatest motivator for people to vote. And I mean, that's also just human psychology as well.

The fear is what drives a lot of decision making. And when you look at the last election where we had this higher voter turnout in 88, and so I just had to do a little bit of digging because I was fairly young at the time. But that voter turnout was very high in part because of a great fear of the increased Americanization of Canada due to the free trade agreement that Mulroney wanted to and then eventually put forth. I happen to believe that you've sold us out.

I happen to believe that once you... Mr. Turner, just one second. You do not have a monopoly on patriotism. And I resent the fact that your implication that only you were a Canadian. I want to tell you that I come from a Canadian family and I love Canada. Yeah, there's certainly parallels between the two. Yeah, yeah. And so to me, just looking at that, I think it's just kind of, you know, the voters are motivated by just what sucks less. That is quite a calculation. What about for you, Sunil?

This was a demoralizing result. As a CPC supporter, he had a really good night. He got 42% of the vote. Got the highest share of vote our party has received. There is no conservative politician in this country that can beat that. And he was always the guy, your top prospect sitting on the bench. He was the guy that we were kind of waiting for. For him to not be able to win leaves myself and probably others asking themselves.

What's next? Like if he can't win, who can? Who can? For conservatives. For conservatives. He is the party. No one out there can energize voters. and articulate conservative principles. It sounds like what you're saying is that the conservatives can never win based on your calculation of what happened. Vote splitting is not a strategy. You can't hope and pray that. the Liberals and the NDP split votes. That is not a strategy.

Yeah, I don't know that I completely agree with that, Sunil. The issue that I see is that You know, he wasn't a top prospect on the bench. Great hockey analogy. He was a GM or a coach of the team. And he had a job to do over the last few years. He did a job effectively. Effective parliamentarian, awesome leader of the opposition, holding the government to account, highlighting.

areas of conflict of interest, misspending, all the classic liberal cronyism issues that a lot of Canada have issues with, but certainly that are elevated or magnified out here in Western Canada. And then we had the unknown factor of Trudeau demise and Carney showing up. And that changed the landscape. I'm happy to accept it. It changed the landscape. Carney did the best message through the campaign of describing that it's changed the landscape.

of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades. No longer do we have the relationship with the U.S. or on the global stage that we had before. We are now, the world is different. And Poliev couldn't possibly shift.

to become a new person in 60 days. So effectively, while Trudeau was around, the world in Canada was willing to vote for him because Trudeau was a terrible, really a terrible leader and got worse and worse over that last year or two. So we got the fringe, not the fringes, the centrist

Centrist left that would likely have stayed home, hence if there wasn't a Carney model that had showed up, those centrist left voters would have stayed home. The centrist right were always going to vote conservative. We would have had a conservative strong minority or majority. But enter stage right, Kearney, and now you've got the centrist left voters have somebody to vote for. There's a new guy in town. He's clean. He's polished. He's economically educated. He's got some history.

And your centrist right conservatives, maybe some of them converted as well, but certainly that NDP swing vote now had somebody to vote for. And coupled with the lack of the NDP integrity in the last two years, That was an easy collapse and that was an easy vote for the Liberals to gain. So the question is, who out there can get their vote.

share from 42 to 44. I don't, I don't disagree. Excellent. Excellent. Excellent. I have to say, I feel the same pain. I feel the same pain. Okay. I don't think Chelsea's feeling that pain. I'm not feeling that pain. So I think that. I don't think it was Poiliev that got this 42%. I think it was the Conservative Party. If he had maybe focused perhaps a little bit more on listening to other people instead of how big his rallies were and how big he could rally his base.

and how loud they could be, then we wouldn't, I mean, you wouldn't maybe be so disappointed right now, Daryl, and we would have your conservative majority. He lost this. for the conservatives because he failed to pivot when it mattered. I completely agree. He failed to pivot because he was not listening to the people that he should have been listening to. Okay. Completely agree. Let's talk about Alberta.

Specifically, when we take a look at the vote, the Conservatives actually increased their vote in Alberta, their vote chair. They were up, I think, 8.5 percentage points. The Liberals were up 12.5 percentage points. the NDP cratered here like they did everywhere else, right? So what does that tell you in terms of I guess what the population thinks of the result and what their expectations might be of a new... Liberal government a fourth consecutive term

I think the country's moving to a two-party system provincially and federally. This gives Smith her piñata, which... she can use to distract from her upcoming own problems. You're not a Smith fan, just for anyone who hasn't heard of Sunil before. You're a conservative, but not a fan. No, and I think her resignation is... This is going to give her something to kind of rally around. She's going to do nothing for Albertans. She's just going to be focused on this.

on Kearney and we're not going to move forward as a problem. Daryl, you're nodding in agreement? It's confusing. There's so many spokes in that wheel of what makes this province and country go around. So I am a lukewarm, maybe Luke Smith fan. I was a Luke Polyev fan. I'm a staunch conservative values and platform fan. I think that Smith has an opportunity here to bridge build.

I may be disappointed in the outcome of the federal election, but I believe that the country spoke and we need to get behind the current model and we need to make the best of it that we can. And there is a chance that Carney will build. Uh, I don't believe it, but there's a chance. So he, like Smith have got a chance here to bridge build, uh, with each other and, and show us, um, you know, that they can represent the, a wider, a wider interest. I don't support...

You know, the red herrings that we see Smith come out with in the last couple of years. But I said in the last podcast that we were on that the challenge that she's had is she's had a Trudeau government to have to navigate with. And she's a staunch supporter of Alberta.

And I think a really strong staunch support of Alberta. You don't have to agree with everything, but again, the platform I do believe in, and I think that she has no choice but to have gone down the roads that she's had to go down the last couple of years with the federal government we've had. So it's a new landscape for both of those. And I think that they will both do themselves a world of great if they find a way to bridge with each other.

But what message, I wonder, Chelsea, is Daniel Smith sending? We know she had a contentious relationship with the Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau. We now have Mark Carney. She has said, you know, let's wait and see. And so I would hope that the current prime minister understands that his mandate comes from moderate voters who actually want this province to be a genuine energy superpower and the country to be a genuine energy superpower.

But she also said she's going to shield Alberta from, quote, future hostile acts. Which, you know, suggests, I know Sunil's going, what the heck does that even mean? Don't worry, I'll get back to you. But right after the election, the first thing she announces is she's going to ease. the path for citizen-initiated referendums. And, of course, we know there's already a group mobilizing to have one on independence.

and then subsequently announced that she's heading back to court. I don't know how many court cases we have ongoing right now, but this one on the clean electricity regulation. So what does that tell you about where we're heading? So Danielle Smith only has demonstrated an iota of diplomacy outside of the Canadian borders. And she has no interest in any kind of diplomacy with Carney as well because it's politically not expedient for her. So she has this new bill, which is going to...

which she is hoping, I mean, it's very transparent and embarrassing. So this is just stoking the fires. So if you've got 10% of your voting public that is concerned about an issue, it's something we should know about. So I don't want to prejudge what kind of issues might come forward. It's embarrassing because I mean, it's like telling my seven-year-old son, yeah, you can get this cat you want really badly as long as you show me.

All of these things that indicate, you know, you're loyal to me and your responsibility, even though I know that my partner is going to veto it anyway. So it's just like there's no path forward for our family to get a cat. There's no path forward for Alberta separation. But she keeps stoking these fires because she knows that these are the people that are going to be the loudest and kind of.

Give her this position in power. I don't think Danielle Smith, I would love for her to go away, Sunil, but I don't think she's going anywhere. And it's in part because the way that provincial politics is working now is just the most aggressive. And folks on as far right as you can be, they're going to win that leadership. But you could also argue that...

She has some leverage to deploy right now. What leverage? Well, the leverage being one of the things that, I mean, in addition to Canada Strong and Time to Build and all that with Mark Carney, was his plea for unity. When we seek unity, unity grows. When we are Canadian. Canada grows. Right, that we need to be united now more than ever. He's meeting Trump on Tuesday, and he reiterated that Friday morning in a news conference. We all have to wear the same sort of Team Canada jersey.

And so if that is a big priority, and clearly it is, does that not give Daniel Smith some negotiating power to make some gains? He needs to call her bluff. You want to separate, hold the referendum vote. She's got nothing. And Carney can neutralize her by green lighting some energy projects. I think she's smart enough to know that that won't happen which is why she's not pushing it to the degree that she needs to.

I think that there won't be a referendum. Not pushing what to the degree. The push for a referendum for Western separatization, you know, languaged that way, she knows that's not going to happen. Anybody that knows, you know, any sort of project management planning sees a... a 50-year horizon and an immense amount of complexity to get anywhere near.

And so that's not the, that's not the end game. Is it a release valve? I mean, essentially for those who are frustrated, political posturing right now. And she's got to keep that message going. Otherwise she ends up like Polly have, you know, switching her flavor or, you know, changing the tiger stripe.

overnight post-election. She can't. She's got to keep that message going and use that language, the politicization of that as part of the leverage as she opens negotiations. So you think she does have leverage? You think there is an opening? Sure. I believe she has got lots of leverage. You bet. Yeah. Chelsea?

She's really popular here in Alberta. And you know what? She knows how to politics. Well, the conservative movement is popular in Alberta, right? Like Jason Kenney or Daniel Smith. They're not that far apart, those two. I mean, and if you look at popular vote, the truth is federal conservatives. are more popular than provincial conservatives. Smith has a big problem. As soon as these reports come out... If there are links to her office,

I can't pronounce that Greek lady's name. Right, but the former head of AHS. Yeah, I apologize. You're basically talking about this story, you know, where we've got investigations ongoing. The knives are going to come out, and I don't think she's going to survive. Okay. So do you think the tension with Ottawa is a distraction? She has no ideas. What is her policy? What is her objective? What is she trying to do?

Okay. She's got the same problem that Polly have had post the carny turnaround, doesn't she? She had to protect Alberta at all costs, protect Alberta. And now there's a chance that there's going to be a bridge built. And so her position needs to pivot. So I agree with you, Sunil.

And if we don't see a material change in her development of ideas for Alberta and the development of a more... you know, I guess, aligned message that touches unity while protecting the priorities of Alberta, not the red herrings that are not necessary. then I think democracy will speak for itself and we'll see a declining support for her base and there will be a change in provincial government perhaps. I have full faith in what we do as a voting public.

with our governing leaders. Okay. I'm going to let that be the last word just in the interest of time, but it was a great conversation as I knew it would be. So Chelsea and Daryl Sunil, good to see all of you. Thanks for coming in. Thanks. Thank you. Go Jet.

Daryl Stanier, Sunil Shah, and Chelsea Mattis are three Calgary voters we've been chatting with over the course of the election campaign. For more analysis, I'm joined now by Monty Solberg, a former Conservative cabinet minister under Stephen Harper. And also here with me right beside Monty, longtime political strategist Stephen Carter, who campaigned for the Liberal Party in this election.

Well, it's good to see you, Kathleen. Good to be here. So that's a hard act to follow, that citizens panel. Oh, Stephen. Oh, it was fabulous. It was fabulous. It was fabulous. But what are your thoughts on what you heard from them? Well, I mean I think that they're – it's interesting listening to the citizens kind of pick apart an election because it's different I think than the way that Monty and I would pick apart an election.

They're also picking up on some of the pieces that the pundits are grabbing onto as well. I think that what's more interesting to kind of our professional sect, if you will, is the personal feeling. Like Sunil's reaction to the actual outcome and the emotional. component of it. I thought that was interesting because I think that oftentimes we're looking at this almost as an intellectual exercise and it does have some more impact on people and how they feel and how they feel then dictates.

how they respond to different stimuli. So that to me was a very interesting component. Yeah. Monty? No one was inspired. They all saw things that they liked and disliked. Nobody said, you know, there's leadership here that we can rally around and everyone's doing a great job. You know, it was really more of... We need our politicians to be better and I think that's fair. I think that's fair. People should be called onto the carpet and politicians I think expect that.

What should we expect from this parliament, this next parliament, do you think? Well, I mean, I guess the big question will be longevity, right? Will this be a parliament that lasts a full four years? Will they find a way to govern essentially as an effective majority, even though they are the minority? Or will this be a short-lived parliament? Will there be opportunism that shows its head as we move through the first six months, the first 18 months?

of this parliament. I think it's kind of an 18-month window or less than 18 months. or it'll go the full 48. In the news conference that Mark Kearney had, talking primarily, Monty, about his trip to Washington to talk with Donald Trump on Tuesday, he was asked...

Mr Carney, will you be pursuing a formal governing pact of any kind with the NDP? No. Short answer, no. I mean, it was a one-word answer, no. But at the same time, he's seeming to appeal to all of those elected that given the threat of Trump and terror. that there should be some kind of effort to unify. Yeah, and I think the unification should actually occur between the Liberals and the Conservatives on the big issues that matter to Canada. You know, there is a big open path down the middle.

where we can turn the economy around and primarily or to a large degree by getting oil and gas back involved in the economy. And it's no coincidence. that over the last 10 years, the economy grew by a total of 1%. While at the same time, there was very little going on in oil and gas because it was just a bad environment, a bad economic climate and political climate, primarily because of the Trudeau government, I would argue.

So I think there is a path down the middle, but it requires goodwill on both sides. And, you know, whether or not that's there remains to be seen. So, you know, we'll see what happens with that. with that caucus meeting on Tuesday, but I really do hope... The Conservative Caucus meeting for those wondering. Yes, Conservative Caucus meeting. And we'll see whether or not the message is delivered from the caucus to Pierre Polyev that we want to see, you know, some bon ami and an outreach.

You know, where it makes sense, not on every issue, of course, but when it comes to strengthening Canada. Well, I'm already seeing change because I'm watching Power and Politics and I see conservative MPs doing interviews. Yeah. MP-elect. We'll see how long that lasts. There was a tremendous command and control structure that was put in place by the conservative party through the election and prior to the election.

that was run, I think, primarily by Jenny Byrne and her view that command and control at the center is essential towards winning. I think that that has been undone a little bit. Because obviously while the performance was there, it wasn't good enough. And we get measured by success not getting close. And Jenny Byrne, I think, will find herself in a situation where MPs are going to say, you know what, we tried your command and control model. I'm going to go out and say what I need to say now.

Are we going to see floor crossing and not just thinking NDP, but also conservatives? I know that Bob Fyfe was reporting in The Globe that... Apparently conservatives are worried about liberals trying to poach some of their... Wow. You know, I would think that would be... Quite unlikely for a while. You know, it may occur at some point down the road. But I suspect that newly elected MPs getting elected under the conservative banner are going to gut it out and see how things go under...

Pierre Polyev's leadership. You know, there is a real opportunity here to... build the Conservative Party. Some great things happened during the campaign, including picking up a lot of labor support, primarily from the NDP, which bodes well, I think, for the future of the Conservative Party. But, you know, it really requires I sense that there's a willingness to learn from the outcome of the last election, some of the results.

to hear from the candidates who lost. And it's not all going to be flattering feedback that Pierre gets when he does that. So he needs to grow and learn. Well, there's also the argument that... You don't really need a majority in this environment anyway, Stephen. Well, I mean, we're so close. I would probably recommend governing as though you had a majority and almost dare the government or the opposition to take you down. I just don't see...

It being in the very small NDP caucuses, advantage to take it down, nor would I see even the Bloc Québécois. wanting to take it down. And to a degree, it's not in the conservatives' interests to take it down in the very, very short term. It would be fascinating to watch Pierre Polyev behave as an expected prime ministerial type of role, or the second prime minister.

where he says, how are we going to make this government successful? How are we going to make Canada successful in the face of one of the largest threats that we've ever seen? And it's not like a pandemic, which is just kind of something that appears. There's not much we can do about it. This is something that is being imposed upon us. We have to act.

And if Pierre Polyev decided to be the statesman that Monty seems to imply that he could be, then that would be a spectacular turn of events. I don't think Pierre has that capacity. I think Pierre Paliyev only has one note and that note is opposition leader. I think ultimately that's what Canadians were responding to in this election and why they moved en masse from the NDP to the Liberals.

We saw signs I think in the last couple of weeks of the campaign that Pierre has another gear. Whether that's put on or whether it's real I think is the issue. Or perceived as real. Or perceived as real. But if you want to be Prime Minister of Canada, you have to grow into that position. And it really demands things of you that you probably don't even realize when you're running for the job. But once you get there, you have to grow in a number of different ways that...

Some people are capable of doing. Stephen Harper was capable of doing it. He grew tremendously. and became a statesman and became a diplomat to some degree. And that's not something that we would have recognized maybe six or eight months before he ended up in the job. And we'll see whether Pierre can do it. He might be able to do it. And I hope for the good of the Conservative Party, he does.

Looking ahead to whatever the new cabinet is going to be, they have some new faces they can draw from. You know what I'm going to ask you. Yeah, you're going right ahead. We've got two Liberal MPs in Alberta, one in Calgary and one in Edmonton. But the one in Calgary is, I guess, now your former partner on your own political podcast, the strategist, Corey Hogan. Yeah, quite a – I mean, we ran his –

campaigning, expecting him, of course, to lose because we know him. But, you know, nonetheless, he wound up winning. And now, yeah, I mean, there is a question of will Alberta have a cabinet minister? substantial cabinet position. Rather than thinking of it as just Corey Hogan as the MP for Calgary Confederation.

I'm thinking of it as Alberta. What does Alberta need? Well, because there's Edmonton Center too, right? And Eleanor Oczewski. Right. And I think that we need to – I think we need to see a kind of presence. I think we need to see someone who's also going to represent the province of Alberta who doesn't sound and echo Danielle Smith. There hasn't been a major pipeline project in the past 15 years that I haven't been involved in, in some way, shape or form.

I think that's important. I think we need strong Alberta voices in Ottawa as these decisions are being made and these conversations are being had. This is something that I have some pretty intimate knowledge with and I'm thrilled to be working with a fellow like Mark Carney who understands the importance of a strong conventional

oil and gas sector, as well as being strong in renewables. So representing a different point of view, because not every Albertan sounds and looks like Danielle Smith when she's railing about the... the lack of justice for Alberta, which is just kind of... I think hilarious. We're going to get to that in a second. We will absolutely talk about that.

From you too, Monty, do you expect at least one of the two Liberal MPs in Alberta to make it into cabinet? I'd be shocked if Corey wasn't in cabinet. I mean, he's, you know... The friendly, warm face that the Liberal Party wants to show, I think, not just in Alberta, but everywhere. The reality is the world is changing, but we can be at the forefront of that by having the cleanest conventional oil, as well as...

There are ways that we can have our cake and eat it too. I want to make sure that Alberta oil is seen as the best oil worldwide and has access to all of the world's markets. You know, somebody who's reasonable. And, you know, I hope it would be a very good sign, I think, if Corey Hogan became the next minister responsible for energy issues.

because it would tell me that the prime minister is willing to work with Daniel Smith to get something done for the benefit of Canadians and for the benefit of the oil and gas sector and Albertans as well. So I really do hope that that's the way things trend and not to get ahead of the issue, but I think that's... something important that Danielle Smith could help create for the benefit of Albertans by, you know, really reaching out in a good faith way, working with the federal liberal.

So let's talk about Daniel Smith now, but more specifically, I mean, first of all, obviously the relationship that she will or won't have with Mark Carney, the leverage that I think most people acknowledge she probably has. In this moment, given that his pledge to create a unified country where everyone is on the same team, but at the same time lowering the threshold and announcing that I think was the day after the election.

So that it's much easier to trigger a referendum. And we already know that people are mobilizing for one. Yeah, I mean, I think it's ridiculous. I think that Danielle Smith has chosen... to do petty politics over the politics of statesmanship. And she had the opportunity to step up and work with the new prime minister. And she has chosen to continue the grievance that she held against Justin Trudeau. Not because it helps the province of Alberta, but because it helps her politically.

And I think that that's weak politics. I think it will ultimately come back and harm her in the end. The citizen panel was suggesting. She'll be gone in a year. I don't subscribe to that point of view. That was Sunil specifically. Yes. I don't subscribe to that point of view, but I think that it will be a... She is choosing to do petty politics, and she has chosen to do petty politics from the beginning. She blames others instead of looking inward.

You know, Monty brings up the fact that the economy only grew by 1% over the last decade or so. Why is that? Because Alberta's economy is collapsing, not because of Trudeau, not because we live in a world environment where the oil and gas economy is not succeeding the way it has in the past. And Danielle Smith has chosen, instead of to embrace that, she's cut down on renewables. She's stopped a significant growth opportunity in our province, just be it for petty politics.

And that, to me, tells everything. about why Alberta continues to not be the economic engine that it could be and should be. Okay, there's a lot for you to respond to there. There is. Yeah, where do you want to begin? Well, Alberta is attracting people from across the country. I mean... Our cities are exploding. We've got investment pouring in. House prices are going up in response to all of that. I mean, I just don't accept the analysis from my friend Stephen. I think he's completely wrong.

I'll pull up the numbers before we're done. Yeah, I think it's also ridiculous to be so indignant at the alienation that is real in Alberta. It's manufactured, Monty. It's not manufactured. It's manufactured. There's 250,000 people who are alienated in Alberta, and they're all subscribing to the Western Standard.

Well, that's not – if there are people that are alienated, then clearly it's not manufactured. There are people that feel this way. They feel that Confederation does not respect Alberta. And that's what it's about. It's about respect. And so it's not unreasonable to say to these people... If you have a point of view and you want to bring it forward for Albertans to...

weigh in on, by all means do it. And you can do that through a citizen's initiative. But let's talk about that a little bit more. You know, we can disagree on sort of the level of alienation and, you know, and argue about... what's justified and what's not but it exists right we can at least acknowledge that it exists i hear what you're saying

But is that good for the province? If we are in a situation where we spend the next year talking... about independence and having a referendum on independence. I mean, I even wonder what that does to business confidence. Well, what does it do if you have four years where people have no way or avenue to express themselves? It's an election. We just had an election. Isn't that what elections are for? But has alienation gone away because of the election? Hardly. It's probably gotten worse.

Because people have unreasonable expectations that were created by Klein. Carried through by, you know, Jason Kenney and ultimately continued to be propped up by Daniel Smith. We are in some fashion being taken advantage of. I know you're indignant that people don't agree with you, Stephen. I am indignant because the truth of the matter is we are the wealthiest province in this confederation. We shouldn't be the whiniest province in this confederation. When it comes to – wealth is part of it.

There's an economic argument to be made that Alberta would be better off outside of Confederation. I know that, Stephen. I don't agree with it. I'm just saying it's reasonable for people to do the math. and say there's $20 billion that goes from... Alberta into Confederation every year, and it's been that way forever and a day. Okay, let me shimmy up the middle here and get it back to just the whole idea that we, I take your point about alienation.

It existed as long as I've been alive, and I won't tell you how long that's been, but it's been a long time, and I was born and raised here. So I know all about it. But what I'm wondering is, is this a moment to address some of that, not by virtue of a referendum, but by virtue of the fact that Daniel Smith, you both acknowledge, has some leverage right now? And there is a prime minister is trying to prove a point.

Right. That he is actually an advocate for energy in this province. And there may be some way to sort of. get some stuff done. So same advice for Daniel Smith that I gave to Pierre Polyev. Approach this as an opportunity for statesmanship. Approach this for the opportunity to be a leader instead of being someone who's trying to tear things down.

And her very first day after the election, instead of saying something positive and trying to actually address things, she has gone to the worst level of politics. And the worst level of politics is the stoking of separation, the stoking of this anger that exists. that we have created. Because we have told everybody for so long how hard done by we are. But she would argue that she's advocating for and representing the interests of the province that she feels have too long been ignored.

and have been essentially attacked by virtue of regulations. How many pipelines did Stephen Harbour get built? Four. Which ones? Kinder Morgan, Loop, Keystone. Keystone. We're counting Keystone? Keystone was built by Stephen Harper. Alberta Clipper.

None to Tidewater, though. And then 9B. Well, there were none proposed to Tidewater. Why would he build one? Well, there was proposed to Tidewater. He lost Gateway because he wasn't able to follow the process. No, he didn't lose Gateway. It was shut down by... Justin Trudeau. Well, it was the courts, actually. And then Justin Trudeau. Put a knife in it. Walked away from it. Right.

because of the conditions that needed to be met. But we digress a little bit, not to say that these aren't sort of ongoing issues, but getting back to my point, is there not an opportunity here for Alberta, at least at the beginning? to see if some movement. It can happen and some advances on priority issues for the premier can be made because she's the one who warned of a national unity crisis.

If for nine demands, I mean, these are essentially ultimatums, are not met. No one gets everything they want, but is there an opportunity here? Oh, yeah. Yeah. No, there's no question. There's a huge opportunity. We just had the CEOs of 38 oil and gas companies write a letter addressed to the Prime Minister saying, you know,

We're concerned about things and we want to work with you to get some things done. That opportunity is there. And I would love to see the Prime Minister reach out. I'd love to see. The premier also get involved and say, we're open to this. We were prepared to look at a deal where we do something about emissions. but also we ensure that oil and gas can prosper in Canada and the industry can expand. I think that is an opportunity. I think if Corey makes it into cabinet, I'm sure he will.

He'd be an ideal guy to help with that. And I'd love to see the premier work to help make that happen. And I don't think it's beyond the realm that she wouldn't do that. I like to think there's like... Two interns have been tasked to listen to every episode of The Strategist to make sure that he can be in cabinet. That's what I like to think.

What do you guys do now, by the way? Well, you know, we're just going to continue on continuing on and talk about him like he's there. I mean, really, all we're missing is the intellectual guy. No one tuned in for that. Right? The brain of the group? The brain of the group. Who wants that? Let me tell you why. No, we don't care, Corey. To get back to sort of the topic we're talking about, let's just end with... Trump and Carney on Tuesday. suggesting he's going to have deliverables, but...

Something has to appear at least to have been accomplished by that, right? I'm not sure. I think that the actual meeting is the accomplishment. Because realistically, I'm not sure that anybody can predict what's going to happen in a meeting with Donald Trump. You can be Zelenskyed or you can – every word you hear is going to be triumphant. I just – I don't know what's going to happen with Donald Trump with Mark Carney. I think –

I mean this is going to be very base, but I think that Mark Carney will earn more of Donald Trump's respect just because of his experience in the financial markets. And I don't think that that's necessarily why Mark Carney should have his respect. I think we'll see maybe a different Donald Trump than we saw with Justin Trudeau. OK. Marty? Yeah. I mean it's a big trade-up from Justin Trudeau to go to Mark Carney. There's no question about it. I mean Trump hated.

Justin Trudeau, I don't think anyone really doubts that. And it sounds like Carney and Trump probably met in the past back when they were both on. wall street and no people mutually yeah no people mutually let's scare a moochie is one of them well let's not raise him no no i know but kind of interesting yeah yeah so i i you know i think i think that's i think it's largely correct that the meeting itself is an accomplishment, getting off to a warm start. Trump's a relationship type of guy.

But the other thing, of course, is to put a toe in the water on the trade deal that we have to strike, our biggest trading partner. And just to... indicate that we're willing to work with them to ensure that America feels like it's treated fairly, but keep that massive market open to Canada, 70% of our exports. This was a great combo. We'll have to have the two of you back again for sure. Steve is laughing. He's like, yeah, yeah. Yeah, we were well behaved. Mostly well behaved. Yeah.

Monty was well behind. Keep those elbows down. Monty was well behind. Oh, Monty. Thank you so much, Stephen. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Monty Solberg is a former Conservative cabinet minister, now with New West Public Affairs. And Stephen Carter is a political strategist and well-known from the Strategist Podcast. And you've been listening to a different podcast.

One that Stephen listens to, by the way, West of Centre. We've worked overtime to bring you extra coverage throughout the campaign. And if you like what you're hearing... Give us a hand. Leave a five-star rating on Apple or wherever you listen. And if you want to chime in on anything, send us an email. Felice Chin is our producer. I'm Kathleen Petty, and we'll talk again next week. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca.

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