The one constant in life is change, even for great investors. Earlier this year The Motley Fool Co-Founder, David Gardner announced that he was changing his focus. As he told fellow “Fools” as the global online investing community members jokingly refer to themselves: “....where you place your focus in life matters, and now I am choosing to shift my focus from the stock market and invest time in other endeavors. After nearly 30 years focused on publicly picking stocks, this wasn’t a decision I t...
Oct 16, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 16
It can take a long time for a bubble to burst. Four years ago, in 2017, Grant's Interest Rate Observer , a highly regarded financial newsletter, wrote an article about the now infamous China Evergrande group. Back then, it was anything but a familiar name except in China and among some institutional investors. The article was titled “Ever Higher” as Grant published a chart showing the extraordinary rise in China Evergrande's stock price on the Hong Kong exchange that spring. Fast forward to 2021...
Oct 02, 2021•27 min•Season 18Ep. 14
Large-cap U.S growth stocks, particularly tech stocks, have been the overwhelming winners of the last decade. They now dominate the market. The top ten S&P 500 stocks, including the FAANGs, account for more than 25% of the index’s total market value, a concentration that worries some market watchers because it is reminiscent of other market tops such as the dot-com bubble when internet stocks made up over 30% of the S&P and the credit bubble when banking stocks reached more than 20%. Wit...
Sep 11, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 11
One of the biggest challenges for investors since the global financial crisis has been finding income. Despite more than ten years of continuous predictions that yields on U.S. Treasuries and other developed country bonds couldn’t possibly go any lower, they have. This week’s guest can help us. She is Kristin Ceva, Senior Portfolio Manager, directing Payden & Rygel ’s nearly $14bn emerging debt strategies. She is also a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee. The independent global...
Sep 03, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 10
In this era of indexing the investors who research and buy individual companies are becoming a rarity - some would say a throwback - to another era. The most obvious example is Warren Buffett, the nonagenarian Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway who is widely considered to be one of the greatest, if not the greatest American investor in recent memory. Buffett is famous for buying quality companies for the long term, in his words “forever”. He is less well known for his emphasis on seeking “high quali...
Aug 28, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 9
In this week's WEALTHTRACK podcast, an interview with leading financial journalist Jason Zweig. Since 2008 Zweig has written the widely read "The Intelligent Investor" column for The Wall Street Journal. That, of course, is the name of the investment classic written by Benjamin Graham, considered to be the father of value investing. Zweig has an intimate knowledge of the thinking of Graham because he edited the last revised edition of The Intelligent Investor with a forward written by Warren Buf...
Aug 23, 2021•13 min•Season 18Ep. 8
50 years ago, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon shocked the financial world by ending the convertibility of the dollar to gold, upending the monetary and currency exchange system that had been in place since 1944. This week Nick Sargen, author of Global Shocks , joins us to explain the consequences of that momentous decision which are still being felt today. WEALTHTRACK #1807 published on August 13, 2021. More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/multiple-asset-bubbles-50-years-off-the-gold-s...
Aug 13, 2021•30 min•Season 18Ep. 7
Part 1 of 2 Warren Buffett, the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway is considered to be one of the greatest investors of all time. He has become an American icon dispensing investment wisdom and commentary over the years through his annual shareholder letters and meetings where he and his long-time business partner Charlie Munger answer questions for hours on end about a wide range of topics. An industry has developed around Buffett of investment clubs, newsletters, and books mostly focused on his in...
Jul 31, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 5
Part 2 of 2 What does history have to teach us about the current geopolitical, economic, and investment environment? A great deal according to renowned historian Niall Ferguson. His thesis is that applying the lessons of history to contemporary events can result in better investment outcomes. One of the biggest, most consequential debates among economists, investors, and policymakers is over inflation. Is the recent global surge in prices a temporary blip from economies reopening from pandemic s...
Jul 23, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 4
If there is one adjective we have heard repeatedly in the last year and a half it is “unprecedented”. It has been applied to describe the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been poured into the economy. It has been used in relation to the pandemic lockdowns and reopenings, and the record-breaking runs in stock, bonds, real estate, and commodity markets. Is there no historical precedent for these events? Who better to ask than this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Niall Ferguson? Ferguson has...
Jul 17, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 3
Part 2 of 2 When legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham turned 80 he made two resolutions: “to be prepared to write a cheque up to the limits of your ability”, and to “say what you think you should say to everybody”. He is following through on both commitments. He is saying what he thinks he should say to everybody including us, to our benefit! In the first of our two-part interview last week, Grantham warned we are in a bubble of “epic proportions” in the U.S. stock markets, bond market, and ...
Jul 10, 2021•25 min•Season 18Ep. 2
Part 1 od 2 We are celebrating the launch of WEALTHTRACK’s 18th season on public television this week! We feel so fortunate to serve you. When WEALTHTRACK launched in July of 2005 our mission was to help our audience and ourselves build financial security to last a lifetime through disciplined, long-term, diversified investing. We vowed to seek out the best minds in the financial business to guide us. This week’s guest is unquestionably one of them. We’ll be joined by legendary value investor Je...
Jul 03, 2021•26 min•Season 18Ep. 1
For financial historians and serious market observers, the current era has all the signs of a developing market bubble. Money is abundant, a wide range of financial assets have risen to record or near-record levels, and enormous amounts of money are flowing into stocks. Private equity funds are flourishing and bonds continue to attract huge sums. Demand for residential real estate is soaring as are home prices. And despite recent dramatic declines, innovative products such as digital currencies ...
Jun 26, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 52
How strong and lasting is the current rebound we are seeing in the economy? What about the resurgence in inflation? Those are major debates raging on Wall Street right now. This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is looking beyond the current rebound and focusing on what he sees as massive problems which will act as drags on recovery. Robert Kessler, Founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. treasuries. Even before COVID, Kessler has bee...
Jun 18, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 51
The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that’s without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth. As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices. The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve...
Jun 11, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 50
Times they are a-changin'… With COVID vaccinations becoming widespread, savings rates high, and consumers ready to spend, the economy is reopening and rebounding with gusto. All of these developments are creating new opportunities and challenges for bond investors. Bond prices fall when interest rates rise and vice versa. After a 40-year bull market in bonds, with interest rates declining to record lows, has the bottom finally been reached after many false starts? How real is this uptick in rate...
May 22, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 47
“Jack be nimble Jack be quick” isn't a concept one usually associates with long-term value investors but sometimes extraordinary times call for exceptional responses. The first quarter of 2020 was one such event for this week’s guest. Steven Romick, who has appeared on WEALTHTRACK since our launch in 2005 rarely does television interviews which is one of the many reasons we are delighted to have him with us this week. For those of you not familiar with him, he is Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA ...
May 15, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 46
There is a rule of thumb on Wall Street that when a fund knocks it out of the park in any given year or has an exceptional winning streak for a couple of years it is bound to fall to earth sooner rather than later and lag the market, its peers, or both for several years. It's called reversion to the mean. With few exceptions, this week’s guest has been in the winning streak category for a while. He is Michael Lippert, Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital and portfolio manager of the firm...
May 08, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 45
The shift from COVID lockdown to COVID reopening has been stunning. Depending upon the stage of reopening economies around the world are rebounding. The markets’ response has been swift and dramatic particularly in the U.S. So what do you do if you are running a highly concentrated, large-cap growth fund? That is the challenge facing this week’s guest. Damon Ficklin is head of the Large Company Growth team at Polen Capital . In his first appearance on WEALTHTRACK I will begin with the basics. I ...
May 01, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 44
Beware the headline makers! According to Wall Street lore when a financial asset hits the front pages it can signal a turning point, either a recovery if negative, or a fall if positive. What’s making headlines today? Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency-related investments, including dogecoin, a meme-inspired cryptocurrency created as a joke in 2013. “This is absurd,” said Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin. “I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going ...
Apr 24, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 43
Have you noticed how rampant speculation is? Random investors seem to be making money hand over fist in numerous assets: disruptive companies like Tesla, whose stock has soared 600% in the last 12 months. Old economy stocks like video retailer GameStop up nearly 6,000% propelled by traders on commission-free trading platforms like Robinhood. These are not isolated events. The zeitgeist is becoming very bullish. Do you feel like you are missing out? Has the world moved on? No, it has not accordin...
Apr 10, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 41
We have been living through an extraordinary period. It was a year ago that COVID was recognized as a global pandemic and since then over 100 million people have been stricken and more than 2 million have died. Economies were locked down causing severe recessions. Central banks and governments responded with unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. A worldwide effort by pharmaceutical companies to develop effective vaccines did so in record time. Millions are now in the process of ...
Apr 03, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 40
When a fringe economic theory goes mainstream and is actually implemented by policymakers you better pay attention. The once-fringe theory in question is called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short. The assumption behind MMT is that massive government spending helps the economy grow to its full potential, including full employment, and also finance major programs like universal healthcare, free college tuition, and green energy initiatives. Sound familiar? What about the burgeoning federal d...
Mar 26, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 39
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that 2021 is a year of significant political and macroeconomic change. Meanwhile, the rollout of COVID vaccines is starting to unleash a year’s worth of pent-up consumer and business demand. That demand is also putting upward pressure on prices and inflation expectations. Those pressures are showing up in the bond market where yields on long-term bonds, the most sensitive to rising inflation expectations are rising. The price of 30-year Treasurys ...
Mar 20, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 38
Part 2 of 2 John Rekenthaler has been tracking mutual funds at Morningstar since 1988. He correctly predicted early on that index funds would surpass actively managed funds. Now he sees a similar trend for ETFs as they attract record amounts of cash and mutual funds suffer outflows. WEALTHTRACK #1737 published on March 11, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/morningstars-john-rekenthaler-explains-why-etfs-will-surpass-mutual-funds-as-the-industry-standard/...
Mar 11, 2021•27 min•Season 17Ep. 37
John Rekenthaler, Vice President of Research at Morningstar and author of the twice-weekly “Rekenthaler Report” analyzes the influence of the online investment communities that have driven GameStop’s meteoric rise and stunning declines. Rekenthaler says their influence is here to stay, at least until regulators get involved. WEALTHTRACK #1736 published on March 05, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-manipulation-of-stocks-by-social-media-investors-is-the-focus-of-morningstars-john-reken...
Mar 06, 2021•14 min•Season 17Ep. 36
The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve continues to surge at an unprecedented rate, up 83% y/y to a historic level, $7.59 trillion at the latest count. According to our WEALTHTRACK podcast guest, financial historian, and long-time market observer James Grant , interest rates, the “central pricing mechanism for financial markets” have been pushed to artificially low levels by the Fed’s policies which have created numerous market bubbles. He cites Bitcoin as one of the most extreme examples. WEA...
Feb 26, 2021•27 min•Season 17Ep. 35
Part 2 of 2 Old fashioned asset allocation used to be a fairly simple exercise: 60% individual stocks, usually U.S. large-caps and 40% bonds, mostly investment-grade corporates, some Treasury securities for liquidity, and a smattering of municipal bonds for higher tax bracket individuals. Today it's a whole different ball game, juggling multiple global asset classes, using complex computer modeling, algorithms, pricing formulas, and intensive analysis. This is the realm of Sébastien Page, head o...
Feb 20, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 34
Part 1 of 2: Talk to most investment professionals and they will tell you that portfolio diversification is the key to successful investing and that asset allocation among multiple asset classes, not individual security selection, accounts for as much as 100% of investment returns. Being broadly diversified among different asset classes is supposed to give you strong exposure to market rallies and protection in down markets as non-correlated assets zig when others zag and soften the downside imp...
Feb 13, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 33
One of the most notable characteristics of the last decade was the wide divergence in market performance. We have reported many times on the narrow group of superstars, mainly large-cap U.S. tech stocks and the much wider universe of laggards, value and small-cap stocks in particular. In 2020 that divergence blew up. Small-cap went from worst to first. The year began disastrously. Small-caps ended the year with their best quarterly gain ever, a stunning 31% advance in the index, handily beating ...
Feb 06, 2021•26 min•Season 17Ep. 32
