HOW NOT TO INVEST

BARRY RITHOLTZ's new book "How Not to Invest" has received a warm reception. We talk about investing mistakes, the Trump Tariffs, and curating a good media diet. https://youtu.be/pS4f45v2iRk https://www.amazon.com/dp/1804091197/ "How Not To Invest" Transcript Frazer Rice (00:03)Welcome aboard, Barry. Barry (00:04)Well, thanks so much for having me, Frasier. Frazer Rice (00:06)Well, we are recording in the midst of chaos and disorder. We're basically in day three, trading day three of the tariffs and trying to understand all of that. But back at the matter of hand, your new book, I read it really good. I thought it did a really good job of sort of colloquially putting some process and structure around not making bad investing decisions. Tell me a little bit about the impetus for the book. Barry (00:35)Sure, so the last book, Bailout Nation, was 15 years ago when I've had a lot of friends and family say, when's the next book coming? And, you know, I had a little, like, hey, that was kind of a slog, stuff blowing up and forcing me to rewrite entire sections of the book every time some new company went belly up. And I came home from Christmas break from vacation. You have that dead zone a few days before you're back in the office January 2nd. And I just started thumbing through some old quarterly calls for clients and research notes and market commentaries. You know, I had moved the blog from GeoCities in the nineties to Typepad in the two thousands to WordPress in the 2010s. And so I was looking at some of these old things and like, God, I never revisited this. This is such a great piece of research. I love this academic take on where alpha or even beta comes from. And I'm just kind of mulling it over. I start writing down chapter ideas on three by five cards like these. And I end up using this giant bulletin board on my wall. It just basically I start putting stuff up and I start rearranging them. And pretty soon it becomes obvious. Hey, these ideas, a lot of them are don'ts. Don't do this. Don't do that. Avoid this. Try not to make this bad mistake. And ultimately, I kind of came to the conclusion that, know, we've part of the reason I held off writing a book is there have been tens of thousands of investing books telling people what to do. And we're all pretty mediocre investors still. Maybe it might be useful if we learned what not to do and thus "how not to invest" was born. Frazer Rice (02:35)We found kind of an interesting crucible to test all of this with sort of Trump's tariff initiatives and a bunch of chaos on that front. As you think about what we're living in right now with uncertainty, whether manufactured or not, what are some of the top things that you think about that you tell people, your clients and otherwise? to keep in mind as we sort of weather this storm and try to learn a little bit about what the future is going to look like. Barry (03:06)Right. I had no idea what what the sequel would be named. Maybe it could be how not to run an economy or what we'll play with that. But so so what's happening these days are kind of fascinating because the first third of the book I spent a lot of time talking about how little we really know about about what's happening right now. And we learn even less about the future. And so our Frazer Rice (03:12)Ha Barry (03:34)A hot take on these things is maybe we shouldn't build portfolios based on having to predict where the economy is going to be, what the hot sector is going to be, where the hot geography is going to be, what the best companies are. Maybe we need to be a little more robust and capable of withstanding this. And the tariffs are a perfect example of how little we know. Look, the obvious examples of "How Not to Invest" Nobody had heading into 2020 in their year had forecast global pandemic that shuts the world's economy. And by the way, stocks go straight up. They just after a 34 percent crash,