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Warsh’s Fed, Vibe Coding, Geothermal Energy, Vegas Bets Big

May 01, 202648 min
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Episode description

This week, The Fed made its call this week, but Kevin Warsh may be about to change the institution itself. And, AI made coding easy for everyone, and that's the best and worst thing to happen to software engineering. Plus, can the same technology that unlocked oil and gas now unlock clean energy? Later, the city that was built by the mob is now betting its future on dayclubs, nightlife, and premium experiences.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston bringing you stories of capitalism. If you can think it, you can code it. Generatve AI brings the brave new world of vibe coding to a project near you. Plus, we're going to need a lot more power to run all that new vibe coding, and it turns out that we may get some of it from the ground under your feet

and Las Vegas. It's not just for gambling anymore. But we start with the FED, which held its monetary policy meetings this week even as it waits for its new chair to be confirmed by the Senate. Glenn Hubbard was the head of President George W. Bush's National out of Council and then went on to run the Columbia Business School, where he is now on the faculty. So, Glenn, we had the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and we heard

from Chair Pal they basically didn't do anything. Did they have a choice?

Speaker 3

No, But I think they did do a few things. So they certainly didn't change the funds rate. I don't think anybody expected that, or at least reasonably. The battle, of course, the descents that happened. Were over the FED statement, or at least what people perceive the FED statement to be. Is there an easing bias? Is there a tightening bias? I think it's fair to say, under the hood, members of the FOMC are conflicted. Some view that the next move is going to have to be flat for an

extended period, possibly even up. Others like Governor Myron have a different sign. So that's really what happened.

Speaker 2

One of the things I couldn't figure out is the easing bias language that they descended from the three members. I looked at the same of carefully. I didn't find those words in there.

Speaker 3

No, I don't think it's there in black and white. I think probably this is a reading the room kind of observation of people going on record that we really are uncomfortable with a view that at the next FOMC meeting or maybe even the meeting after that, that a cut is forthcoming.

Speaker 2

They did say in the statement that there was extreme uncertainty coming out of the Middle East because of the Iran war. Is that what is driving the concern about rates or was there a pre existing issue with inflation?

Speaker 3

I would have to give you the classic economist answer yes and no. So yes, the uncertainty is a problem. Oil prices are high, the US economy is less energy intensive, but it will still raise at least headline inflation. Let's remember inflation was stock well above the fed's target before February twenty eighth, So Iran adds to the problems the FED faces, but it's not really the core problem. I think what's vexing the FED is why it was more

difficult to get inflation down before Iran. But yes, the uncertainty matters.

Speaker 2

What about inflation expectations because I've seen some indications now they may be rising in the United States and even in Europe.

Speaker 3

So far, I think they're relatively anchored. That's a good news for the FED, and that's far more important for the FED than whatever the inflation number by whatever measure they look at is today. But I think the risk is if the war continues and prices remain elevated, and of course we still have tariffs working their way through the system. Even if the ultimate effect is to stabilize, that's going to be an inflation problem and that could unhinge expectations.

Speaker 2

So what does this mean for the new chair coming in Kevin.

Speaker 4

Walsh good luck.

Speaker 3

I mean Kevin Walsh is actually well suited for this moment. He has outstanding small py political skills, consensus building skills. He's very smart, he knows these issues. I think his challenge is going to be looking at the men and women around the table, whether it's the governors or the FMC, and figuring out how to bring them together. That's going to require two things. His skills, which as I said, he has, but another's the theory of the case. I mean,

how do you talk about the economy. I think that'll have to be job one for our new chair.

Speaker 2

Some are interpreting that three person descent as putting a marker down really almost against President Trump. With President Trump's pressing for lower rates, don't go too far, too fast.

Speaker 3

I'm not sure that that's true. I mean, it is true President Trump would prefer lower rates. He certainly has told us all that. I think it's more a matter of a sincere difference of opinion and policy. And given where we are right now, with the labor market softening a little yet we have a robust economy, inflation is stuck. You can see why people are wondering, is the glass

half full or half empty. When you have uncertainty, more often than not, watching and waiting until you get more information is the right answer, and I think it is here.

Speaker 2

Is it a symmetric risk right now as you look at it, or is there a real risk of stagflation where you actually could hurt growth and still have inflation.

Speaker 3

Well, there's certainly a risk of stagflation, but I would be more worried about inflation at the moment. The underlying economy is very good and the GDP numbers we got for the first quarter are reassuring still about the pace of AI investment and about final sales, even though the headline print is a little below expectations.

Speaker 2

Kevin worsh comes in saying that he thinks there is a room for rate cuts because of AI.

Speaker 5

How does that work?

Speaker 3

Well, the story, if it's correct, is what I would come more of a long run story. So AI in the long run, certainly, as the potential to be disinflationary reduces the costs, particularly in service producing sectors. Think about the costs of producing what lawyers do, or accountants do, or engineers or dare I say, economists, that could all be disinflationary. The problem is that's not today, it's not tomorrow, and it may not even be a year or two

from now. The immediate effect of AI is the aggregate demand effect of building data centers. The investment numbers that showed up so robust in GDP all a SQL that raises, not lowers the real interest rate, and inflation is stuck. So I think incoming chair Worsh's story makes sense as a potential long run hypothesis. I don't think it could be a theory of the case for cutting rates now.

To cut rates now, you'd have to have a view that the economy's weakening is such that that tramps small teeth the inflationary pressures.

Speaker 2

There are other parts of the fed's job besides just rates. What do we expect from Kevin Warsh's chair in the other parts.

Speaker 3

Well, I think he's signaled that he wants to take a look at least in a couple of areas. One is the size of the Fed's balance sheet, which of course bloomed enormously since the global financial crisis. That's not really as simple as saying do I want a big balance sheet or a small balance sheet? Because the FED has proven to be the market maker of last resort in the treasury market multiple times, and the treasury market

is the market for the world's safe asset. Regulation perhaps unwittingly made it hard for private market makers to do the job they could be doing. So a FED balance sheet is pretty important. But I do expect Kevin worsh to spend a lot of time there the other's financial regulation, especially since the Global financial crisis, the FED got more territory in financial regulation, so there may be a look, do we have the right rules? Do we have the

right capital regime? I would expect incoming Chairwash to take a hard to take a hard look at that a warning though, regulation, unlike monetary policy, is a political subject, and so do expect Congress. Do expect the President to, with good merits, have political views to balance.

Speaker 2

For the question that's been raised by some other members the FED right now is the relationship of the regional Fed to the national Fed. Then, in fact, maybe there should be more power or authority or responsibility taken into Washington. Does that make sense?

Speaker 3

I don't think so. I think the decentralized structure the FED is a feature, not a bug. Remember the history lesson for the FED is it was done to get points of view throughout the nation, where a nation of different business sectors and different geographies. That said, there is a point that I think regional presidents may be communicating too much. In any organization, the top of the organization

needs to set the tone internally and externally. So having a lot of debate inside strikes me as a good thing. Doing it out in the press or on television, I'm less persuaded that's a good thing.

Speaker 2

There's a good deal to talk about what a chair wash will do in terms of, for example, forward guidance and even number of news conferences that are held the dot plots. How much of that is in the authority of the chair? Does that need to be voted on by the full fed Well, he.

Speaker 3

Would need to get his colleague support, but I suspect he could get it. I count myself as among those who wonder what the utility of the dot plot is and the excessive communication. There's a continuum, if you will. Chair Greenspan was quite opaque. He famously said, you know, if you thought you understood me, you must be mistaken. To Chair Bernanki, who was extremely transparent, I think probably an incoming Chairwash wants to be somewhere in between.

Speaker 4

There.

Speaker 2

One thing that incoming chair worsh will have that has not been had for a very long time is a former chair sitting in the room at least for some period of time. What will that do to that dynamic?

Speaker 5

Do you think?

Speaker 3

I'm not sure it's actually going to do very much. I think Chair Powell's current Chair Powell's points of view are well known. He said them many times. I expect he'll repeat those as a governor, and the time he has left, I think he also is somebody who would be deferential in the way he would be to a new chairs. I don't think it's going to change things very much. Whether he leaves is a personal decision, and he'll have to make it.

Speaker 6

The independence of the FED.

Speaker 2

We also spoke with former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson about the challenges facing the next FED chair. Paulson agreed that Walsh has a hard road ahead, but that he is up to the task.

Speaker 6

Well, you have a chairman of the FED, you want someone who understands markets, who is a good community gator, has a good understanding of sound economic principles, and I think Kevin Walsh meets those tests right, and he's been before, he's done it. Now, I think his job becomes more difficult because there's independence of the perception of independence. So I think how this transition between Jay Paul, who's just been a star performer and got great credibility and integrity.

I think how that transition is handled and how the administration deals with it is either going to make Kevin's job more difficult or you know, somewhat easier. But Kevin won't have an easy job anyway. And I compliment the Trump administration. I'm selecting him right.

Speaker 2

Coming up, AI may be coming for a job near you, especially if you're a computer programmer. This is a story about a double edged sword. At this point, AI is promised to do just about everything, but it turns out that it's best at creating the very thing that it is made of. Code. It was once considered a high skill task, but coding is now accessible to just about

anyone with the help of generative AI. On the one hand, this unlocks possibilities for creating a wide range of products and businesses that otherwise might never have seen the light of day. On the other hand, it's made the future less certain for those who write code professionally. Our colleague Ed Ludlow brings us the story of what happens when we lean in and let AI do the work.

Speaker 7

In Upper Tracts, West Virginia, Jamie Grove owns a boutique warehouse helping clients ship out anything from dinosaur bones to board games. Last year, he built software that automates shipping out packages with help from AI.

Speaker 2

Where's the order at that you're looking at?

Speaker 6

There?

Speaker 8

There's absolutely no way I could have done any of this without AI. For the initial run to take some spreadsheets that we had that we were working with to get an actual workable sample ready to go took me less than a day and we were live and we were using it right here in the warehouse.

Speaker 7

In Oakland, California. Cynthia Chen wished there was an app that collects pictures of different breeds of dogs.

Speaker 9

And then it was when I learned about vibe coding online. Is when I thought maybe I should try it myself. The first time, you see like this little pop up and it says build succeeded, and then you can see the app pop up and like it's actually real. That was like the sort of magical moment where I was like, oh my gosh, this is crazy. I can actually build things myself.

Speaker 7

The term vibe coding was coined by Andre Carpathy, a founding member of open Ai, to describe a process of computer programming akin to having a conversation with a robot. Here's what it looks like in practice. Say I want to create a website that visualizes and animates a data set. I would use a generative AI tool like Claude or codex or in this case, Gemini and tell it exactly

what I want using plain English. AI then writes the code for me, and as coding has gotten easier, it's led to the creation of more code than ever before. Activity on GitHub, the platform used for storing and sharing code, has seen a massive increase in activity, surging in early twenty twenty five when AI coding pilots became popular. And although vibe coding has helped small businesses and hobbyists create their own software, it's the professionals who leading the way.

Speaker 10

So what goes on in this building is we have a mix of folks working on Google Cloud. At Google, when we talk about autonomy and agentic engineering, we have systems that allow you to kind of have almost a virtual software engineer.

Speaker 7

Hold on, if all these brilliant engineers are using AI in this way, what is it that they're doing all day long in beautiful buildings like this?

Speaker 10

One excellent question.

Speaker 7

Adilsmani is the director of Google Cloud AI. He oversees teams of engineers currently building the next generation of AI tools for businesses.

Speaker 10

So, if you are vibe coding, you're pretty much just giving into the vibes. You don't necessarily have a clear, full idea of your vision. You're just working with the LLM. You're trying to get somewhere with it. If you are engineering, that's where you have to apply rigor to it. You have to have this clear set of requirements you are testing, and whether you are a startup or whether you're in a big enterprise. Right now, the role of the software engineer is going to be evolving to one where you

are increasingly a little bit more of a manager. You're going to have effectively like a virtual team of agents that you're responsible for and you have to own the outcomes. Doesn't matter how many are responsible the output, You're responsible for the output exactly. And so you need to decide like how am I evaluating quality? How much time am

I going to spend evaluating quality? Because there are some people who very much enjoy YOLO, like, okay, well the agents ran overnight looks good kind of runs, I'm just going to deploy it. But if you're building any kind of serious software, you still need to have some idea of like what is what is the quality bar? What are my quality gates? How am I making sure this is actually going to meet the needs of my users in a consistent way.

Speaker 7

For the engineers at Google's headquarters is here in Sunny Vale, California, Osmani says, AI isn't just making their lives easier, it's making them better at coding. The extension of that question, which we pose largely by investors, is how do we measure the productivity gains of that engineer or that team.

Speaker 10

I remember in the earlier days of AI, you know, org leaders would look at things like, oh, hey, well, how many lines of code are being generator? Which is not in any way a good proxy for productivity. But these days, I think that people use a mix of different kinds of metrics. You try to use qualitative and quantitative generally speaking, there's a big productivity boost. In the earlier days of AI, would have said, you know, that

boost is ten to fifteen percent. These days it's anywhere from thirty to fifty percent, and I see that number only continuing to go up.

Speaker 7

At MIT, Frank Nagel and a team of research has surveyed over one hundred and eighty seven thousand software developers who are using GitHub co pilot, a generative AI tool for coding, and they found that workers are more productive because what they spend time on has changed.

Speaker 11

I think one of the big things that we often think about with AI is that it's just going to enhance productivity, right, It's going to make us faster doing whatever it is we do. But that's just really just scratching the surface. You have one hundred percent of your time that you allocate to work. How did that break down along these dimensions of what we called core work,

actual coding versus more project management type of work. And what we found is that when coders started using these types of tools, they massively shift the amount of their time that they allocate to coding, and they take away a whole lot of their allocated time towards from project management, and so part of the reason we think that this is happening is that if in the old days you were writing piece of code A, and that piece of code was dependent on some other piece of code B,

you had to wait for that other person, You had to interact with them and make sure that everything worked together, whereas now you can just write it all yourself.

Speaker 7

This productivity boost is particularly true for those who are writing and deploying brand new code, and especially those with no knowledge of code whatsoever, including creatives like Chen.

Speaker 9

This is press Pedals, the new app that I'm working on, and here is a press Flower. So I'm going to go to the cloud code that I have running, and then I'm simply going to describe what I wanted to do. I actually tried a whole bunch of tools in the beginning, and this was about a year ago, which I think is like feels kind of like the stone ages of

vibe coding. I was able to make the foundations of the app in maybe a month, and as like a totally non technical person, I was actually able to build a full stack app, so there's like front end and back end capabilities, and I was able to get it out on the App Store, just entirely myself.

Speaker 7

For business owners like Grove, his Vibe coded solution is helping his warehouse save on costs.

Speaker 8

We have three main coding solutions here that we've used AI for. One is to create batching, which is the important part in terms of taking work that are different and getting them all together into groups that make it easy to pick. And then the other solution that we have is inventory tracking. So that's a standard warehouse feature, but our clients are all so very different, and so trying to force a client into a single inventory tracking

system is really difficult. So we actually we've used AI to build an inventory tracking solution that allows them to be themselves basically. So I have a pretty varied background. I started out as a programmer a long long time ago. But even someone who is a very fast coder could not have built all these solutions impossible. If I were to do it with a team of programmers, I could have five programmers working on this full time and still

not deliver as many results. If I were to install a software system that does everything that we're doing now, let's just say without all the customizations and all the flexibility, we might be talking about an annual license of anywhere between six and ten thousand dollars a year, scaling all the way up to maybe thirty to fifty thousand dollars a year depending on how much volume we push through

our warehouse. This doesn't have the flexibility that we would want, and it's expensive for a small boutique warehouse.

Speaker 5

That's a big.

Speaker 7

Expense now for about twenty dollars a month. Business owners like Growth are building their own software solutions, and whilst that's opened up new possibilities, there is a downside. Since twenty twenty two, employment for software engineers right out of college has fallen by nearly twenty percent. Nagel thinks companies are making a big mistake.

Speaker 11

I do think that one of the biggest risks of the whole thing is that people are going to get too focused on the short term and not think about the long term enough. First of all, you don't hire any new people who's going to run the company in ten to fifteen years. But second of all, our research and others has shown that these junior people are actually the ones who are able to change their job and

get the most out of using these tools. And so if we're not hiring them at the same rate we were before, then we're not going to be able to take advantage of that.

Speaker 4

And Chan agrees.

Speaker 9

I feel very strongly that this is not replacing engineers. I think the more you use AI to build, the more you understand the space and kind of even know what you can and can't do. It's like, technically I can make it, but an engineer probably could have made this in a much shorter timeline and probably with much more robust code.

Speaker 11

From the business standpoint, I do think there's this opportunity where companies that have been thinking about things like reverse mentoring, where the younger folks can help the more experienced folks learn how to better use these types of tools, while the experienced folks are able to better help the younger folks understand how the industry works.

Speaker 7

If AI can write code, then what is the role of the software engineer? Osmani says today, it's all about quality.

Speaker 10

If I want to build a robust engineering artifact, something that's going to last time, something I can ship to hundreds of millions of users or billions of users, there are a lot of things that it needs to factor in, and so what people and buildings like this are doing all day long, are trying to make sure that the code is actually meeting that quality bar so that when we do ship something to you that happens to be using AI behind the scenes, you're actually getting what you want.

That's the important thing for the users at the end of the day, they don't care if a human has been aufering it or AI's been aufering it. Does it help them get the job done in a reliable way.

Speaker 7

Is vibe coding a term that's therefore used. Is it banned with this Absolutely not.

Speaker 10

I think that vibe coating has a lot of value. Vibe coating is enabling people to go from idea to execution faster than ever, and it has completely changed how many teams approach prototyping. You know, so many times in the past in Silicon Value and lots of places, if you had an idea, you'd go through weeks or months of just discussing or debating, hey can we afford to build this? Now you can just build it. And I think that it has a very concrete place in our

language now. It's just important that you understand that vibe coding a thing does not necessarily mean that you have a production ready artifact that's going to be battle hardened.

Speaker 7

In Silicon Valley. The test of AIS progress is true autonomy. To start a project in the evening and wake up in the morning to code written autonomously by an AI agent a dream for senior software developers and perhaps a nightmare for entry level computer engineers who would have once done that work themselves. But for us non coding mere mortals, the moment could be ripe to do what mankind is best at building and creating.

Speaker 2

Up next journey to the center of the Earth, or at least toward it. Geothermal may be an important part of what gets us the energy we need to power all that a This is a story about resourcefulness in the quest of feed AI data centers. The US is looking to get more power from just about everywhere it can, from fossil fuels to wind and solar to nuclear. But it turns out that an important part of the puzzle

lies beneath our feet. Our colleague Michael McKee takes us into the promising and developing world of geothermal energy.

Speaker 4

This is not a gold mine, but in an age of power hungry data centers desperate for energy, it might be even better. So what are we looking at here?

Speaker 12

The OLM geothermal power plant in Steamboat where we have to generate electricity.

Speaker 4

How much electricity do you produce here?

Speaker 12

In the entire Steamboat area, We've produced between eighty to ninety megawoks.

Speaker 4

That's enough to power more than fifty thousand homes a small city. Or Matt Technologies is one of America's largest geothermal companies, with plants throughout the Southwest, the hotbed of the country's geothermal activity. Out the heat exchanger Doron Blaschar is the company's chief executive.

Speaker 12

We operate twenty four seven every day, regardless of the sun, regardless of the wind, and that's the main benefit that you get from geothermal steady twenty four seven electricity.

Speaker 4

Led by the hyperscaling of AI installations, electricity demand in the US is projected to grow by as much as twenty percent over the next decade. And let's say that means the country needs an all of the above approach to power generation. And on the list of potential sources, geothermal stands out for being a clean source of constant or baseload power.

Speaker 13

We need baseload power, and that's the sweet spot that the geothermal brings us. You don't have to worry about if the sun's not shining, if the wind's not blowing. It allows that baseload that every grid needs to operate.

Speaker 4

So far, geothermal is just a small piece of the US power generation mix, producing less than one percent of total utility scale electricity, but demand and technology are changing the outlook.

Speaker 14

Geothermal energy is the heat of the earth, and it's been used for millennia. Hot spring systems we're used by the cavemen to cook their food.

Speaker 4

Until now, the industry has largely been confined to the rare places where hot water and permeable rock come together in underground reservoirs like this site outside of Reno, Nevada. Now, enhance geothermal systems or egs have the potential to give nature and assist Much of the work has been pioneered at Utah Forge, a Department of Energy funded field lab. Joseph Moore is its principal investigator emeritus.

Speaker 14

The conventional geothermal systems, these are also called hydrothermal systems or hot spring systems, have the natural fractures that allow water to move through the rock, extract heat, and then come to the surface enhance Geothermal systems are not associated with hot springs. These are areas where fractures don't extend to the surface and are not abundant enough to allow

water to circulate in the subsurface. We have to make the fractures in order for the water to move through them, and this can be done almost anywhere in the world if we drill deep enough to reach the temperatures that we need. Typically these temperatures are in the order of four hundred degrees f and higher.

Speaker 4

To do that, EGS companies are turning to the oil and gas industry, which increase production by inventing the technique of fracking.

Speaker 15

The fracking actually creates that permeability that you need to flow the water through the rock in order to harvest the heat.

Speaker 4

Cindy Taff is the CEO of Sage Geosystems, a next gen geothermal and energy storage company. After spending thirty five years at Shell, she is now using her knowledge of oil drilling to partner with Ormat.

Speaker 15

We're going to be drilling adjacent to their conventional geothermal field and then putting our production, which will be hot water, into an existing power plant. And the reason why we're excited about that is that it expedites our ability to have a commercial project by at least a year and a half because we don't have to acquire land, we don't have to build a power plant, we don't have to have.

Speaker 10

A grid interconnection.

Speaker 15

We're going to be drilling the wells later this year, if not early next year, depending on the permitting timeline, and we're going to be flipping the switch in twenty twenty seven. And so this partnership is really going to open up the ability to scale commercially around the world because of Ormat's footprint.

Speaker 4

If Sage can provide the hot water, Ormat will use it to generate power.

Speaker 12

We sign with them a collaboration agreement basically allowing us if that once they're successful, to use the technology and build a pop plant and joining forces with Sage, having them bring the experience and knowledge from the oil and gas industry, combining with the geothermal that we bring. We do believe that we get a winning path.

Speaker 4

Now as the technology begins to prove itself, other private capital is moving in behind it, with next generation geothermal attracting more than one and a half billion dollars since twenty twenty one, a.

Speaker 13

Company called called Fervo now has has their drill site located very closely to the forge site. They're drafting off of that new technology. It's gotten better and faster and cheaper already, and so that's how these things are working together.

Speaker 6

Now.

Speaker 13

Fervo has a four hundred megawatt plant that they're building right now, which is incredible. The investments are there, and so it's going to take less subsidies because these companies don't need the subsidies. They just need the power, and they need it really quickly.

Speaker 4

In Utah, Governor Spencer Cox wants to make his state an energy and business hub, with geothermal an important part of that plan.

Speaker 13

We understand the demand for energy right now. It's why we in Utah I launched something called Operation giggle Wade about two years ago. We know we have to double Utah's energy production over the next few years in order to compete with the rest of the world and to make sure that our citizens have the technological advancements that are happening out there and that they have low cost.

Speaker 4

It helps Utah and Nevada that much of the land where EGS geothermal can be developed belongs to the US government, and the Bureau of Land Management is making more of that land available. Demand is running ahead of supply. Average leasing prices paid surged almost three hundred percent last year.

Speaker 13

That's one of the things that we're finding out. Look, there are a lot of states who give giant subsidies a way to attract businesses. We're not like that in the state of Utah. We do have some subsidies, like every state, but we understand that what people really need is speed, and they need assurances that we're not going to pull the rug out from under them, that we're not changing our regulatory scheme every few months, that it's a place where it's easy to do business and deploy capital.

Speaker 4

Geothermal is also politically palatable. At the same time that Washington is opening up more land for geothermal development and continuing tax credits supporting it, it's pulling back support for wind and solar.

Speaker 13

It's one of those rare forms of energy where there's no opposition at all.

Speaker 7

The far right is.

Speaker 13

Opposed to is opposed to wind and and some solar. The left is opposed to to coal and some nuclear. Finally, we have this this energy source that everybody believes in that everybody loves. We just didn't have a way to

produce it at scale in enough places. And and because of human ingenuity, because of this abundance mindset that we're starting to get as America again, we're getting baseload power at scale that prices are coming down because the technology is getting easier and cheaper and faster.

Speaker 4

Still, as with any source of power, there are risks that come with geothermal energy. Most important concerns over access to water and its use td COW and sustainability and disruptive technology. Analyst Jeff Osborne covers.

Speaker 16

Or mat geothermal historically is you know, out in the middle of the desert, typically in vast expanses of land and not the most accessible for water. A big risk for investors to monitor is where's the water going to

come from? And if we need an additional water source, is that available as a backup plan, and what's the cost of that, and what's the political ramifications as it relates to future permitting approvals and so as we move into new geographies that maybe are less familiar with geothermal thinking, like a state like Texas that the water availability in West Texas where some of these data centers are coming in is certainly going to be an issue, and so

that's where learning comes in from some of these initial projects that are being done by the likes of Fervo and what ore Metal have with the SAGE and swimmers A partnerships, they'll be able to take some of that data and then hopefully convince a investors, but be both local and state level politicians that this is something that should be approved to move forward with, typically things around water and grid in our connection or two of the the key punch list items that investors are going to

want to understand.

Speaker 4

When does it start producing a profit for investors.

Speaker 15

Once it starts, we can start scaling, which actually is very soon after this first commercial pilot. I would say we can scale in the next two or three years to four hundred and five hundred megawatts. That's when the returns will really come for investors because as you scale, of course, you can drive cost down because of the efficiencies of during scaling. We have a term sheet with Meta for one hundred and fifty megawatts for one of

their data centers. They're already in need for more power at that data center because some of the solar production has dropped out and so we've got an agreement with them. We're also working with the Department of War and they're very interested in behind the fence power that's easily defendable, and because a lot of our equipment is below ground and it doesn't have a big surface footprint, it will help to solve the supply demand mismatch that you currently

see in the power markets. Being base load, there's a huge demand. Geothermal is just a huge untapped resource.

Speaker 4

Next generation systems could be a game changer in the renewable energy industry, especially if everybody is on board.

Speaker 13

Good news is that Democrats support this now. So this used to be just a partisan issue. Was just Republicans who cared about this. Now as a bipartisan issue, Members of Congress from both parties are pushing towards this. This is a technology that is bringing us all back to the table, bringing us all together, bringing investment at every level. And I think the future is bright for our country.

Speaker 2

Coming up playing the odds, whether it's in a casino or in what's next to the casino. Las Vegas is reinventing itself yet again.

Speaker 1

Vegas as a whole is extremely elastic. Vegas isn't going anywhere.

Speaker 2

This is a story about taking a chance, having a shot at wealth and success, something at the heart of what many considered the American dream, and something built into the very foundation of Las Vegas, Sin City, which for over a century has drawn visitors from all walks of life.

Speaker 5

What brings me to Vegas?

Speaker 2

Well, my husband and I we're married here. We're here on a girl's parkature.

Speaker 16

We came here to party.

Speaker 6

We partied.

Speaker 13

You see, we've got pirates coming from all around the world.

Speaker 2

Beneath the bright lights and the constant buzz of the strip, the city itself is taking a chance at reinvention as signs of slow down in its core businesusiness start to surface. To understand the Las Vegas of today, you have to go back to where it all began, and few have followed that story, like screenwriter and journalist Nick Pelegi.

Speaker 17

After the Second World War, with the air conditioning allowing these places to remain open twelve months a year and aviation advancing it changed the whole economy of going to Las Vegas and allowed people to begin to invest money. It was the only place in America where you could gamble legally. Every illegal book maker all around the country, all of whom were fully operational and had all the

political and police connections they needed to operate in the open. Really, they all went to Las Vegas, where they were legit. It was an amazing moment.

Speaker 2

It was the start of the infamous mob era, a world Pologie would later chronicle in the Academy Award nominated film Casino.

Speaker 5

Who could resist?

Speaker 18

Anywhere else in the country, I was a bookie, a gambler, always looking over my shoulder, hassled by cops day and night. But here I'm mister Rothstein. I'm not only legitimate, but running at casino. And that's like selling people dreams for cash.

Speaker 2

All of us have heard about the time of the mob in Las Vegas. How much of that as myth and how much of there's reality?

Speaker 17

Well, it's mostly reality. And when it came time to open casinos maybe or expand casinos in Las Vegas because of air conditioning and the new aviation, where were you going to get that cash? Who was going to invest Banks were not investing in casinos because casinos were immoral. So you couldn't go to a real bank. You couldn't go to Jamie Diamond and say I need two hundred

million dollars. So the only cash you really had came in cash from the men who had originally made their wealth in prohibition, and they would doing legitimately what they had been doing basically illegitimately. It's really a sort of slice of the free enterprise system at work, and it just kept getting bigger and bigger, until it got so damn big the government said they're making too much money.

At the government legalized illegal gambling and has taken it over and of course not dealing with it as well as they mob guys did.

Speaker 2

From mob money to corporate capital, Las Vegas kept evolving. But now in the age of online gambling, when a casino fits in your pocket, what's next? Fed President Mary Daily oversees the Federal Reserve's Western Region.

Speaker 19

The economy of Las Vegas is the kind of economy that if the US needs is it usually gets a cold or maybe the flu. And so we're seeing some of the things that are playing out in the US economy play out here in Vegas. I think that the Vegas residents are a little worried about that, but you know, Vegas reinvents itself regularly, so there not depressed.

Speaker 2

At the center of Las Vegas's latest reinvention is entertainment, and one of the biggest players is the Tau Group, a hospitality and entertainment company known for operating restaurants and nightclubs. Jason Strauss is the group's co founder. You didn't start in Las Vegas.

Speaker 5

No, we started in New York City.

Speaker 1

Our first two venues was taw Restaurant in Midtown and Marque Nightclub, which I'm proud to say, twenty one years later is the longest running nightclub in New York City history.

Speaker 5

And we have one here in Las Vegas.

Speaker 2

Why did you pick Las Vegas because we mostly think about Las Vegas for gambling.

Speaker 1

Well, back then, we saw a small inklean of nightlife and the need for stylized dining.

Speaker 5

It was just starting.

Speaker 1

There was a lot of celebrity chefs back then, and nightlife was maybe one or two nightclubs on the strip. But we saw a real need for it, and frankly we were right. We hit it right on the nose. The timing was amazing. This is going back twenty one years. We opened with the first restaurant in nightclub combination. Together, we were the first really to like merge and marry those two concepts, and within the first year we're the highest grossing restaurant in the United States.

Speaker 5

So we had a lot of success with that.

Speaker 2

Tell us about the evolution, I mean, how fast did it happen? How big has it got?

Speaker 5

Oh Man, in twenty years, It's been an evolution.

Speaker 1

When I was out here maybe two or three nightclubs, we now have sixteen to seventeen venues on the strip, depending on how you classify a lounge or a day club or nightclub. Now there's this is the nightclub capital of the world and the stylized dining capital of the world.

Speaker 2

Is it continuing to grow? What's been the pattern of growth just measured by how many people you have coming?

Speaker 5

Well, yeah, it has continued to grow.

Speaker 1

We're dealing with a particular segment we say premium segment that's really looking for experiential I mean this nightclub that we're in right now, Omnia is the highest grossing nightclub in the country. And we have hit our best number every year for the last three years here and here at Omnia. So this is a really good indication of where things are and where it's going.

Speaker 2

When you say best number, is that both in total revenue and in revenue.

Speaker 5

Per customer gross net sales gros gross net sets.

Speaker 2

And you measure also how much you revenue get per customer.

Speaker 1

Oh yeah, there's a price point. There's a price per head, but that differs on day of the week. You know, there's a different customer in Vegas every weekend based on convention scheduling, So it depends on the time of year, who the talent is, sort of other factors that come into town, if there's a UFC fight in town, So all those things factor into different sort of per head numbers.

Speaker 2

A lot of the people who follow Bloomberg are concerned about business cycles.

Speaker 5

They go up and they go down.

Speaker 2

Are you vulnerable to business cycles or are you outside.

Speaker 5

Of business cycles?

Speaker 1

You know, I think we live in a particular demo of premium where people have disposable income for experiential so I think we're insulated a bit. But listen, Vegas as a whole is extremely elastic. Vegas isn't going anywhere.

Speaker 2

Look at this and now taw is doubling down.

Speaker 6

I get it. Yeah, that's been pretty nice.

Speaker 2

Making its biggest bet yet with its newest vend sure Omnia day Club set to open later this month.

Speaker 1

Forty six thousand square feet of cabanas, day beds, pools, and up on that platform, up there is our Omnia sky Deck.

Speaker 2

Day clubs have become one of the biggest entertainment formats in Las Vegas, daytime party venues that combine elements of the city's famous night life scene with its pool culture featuring DJs, cabanas, and high energy crowds. But even as Las Vegas leans further into entertainment, the signs of softening demand are hard to ignore. Visitor numbers are down seven percent in twenty twenty five, the sharpest annual decline outside

the pandemic. There are reports of some softness and stupen see and things like that.

Speaker 17

How true are that?

Speaker 2

Because you monitor these things, what do you look at?

Speaker 19

It's definitely weaker than it was last year, and that they have many factors that are affecting it. There's international tourism has just dropped.

Speaker 5

To the United States.

Speaker 19

Then you have you know, the household who are making fifty percentile or less in household income. They're just making trade offs, you know, they have to gas prices are higher, other goods and services are higher, and they get here and they're like, Okay, I'm going to pay for this experience, this show, but maybe I'm not going to spend as much at restaurants. Maybe I'll bring food into my hotel room and so other aspects of this are hurting a little bit, But again, Las Vegas is used to this.

Speaker 2

In a city built on volume and discretionary spending, even small pullbacks can have an outsized impact. Since the pandemic, Las Vegas unemployment has remained roughly a percentage point above the national average. As you look from your approch at the Federal Reserve at the economy of Las Vegas, what are the major component parts? What do you really pay attention to. There's gaming obviously, and you say not so much gaming, some other things.

Speaker 19

Yeah, So I look at travel and leisure, So what are they doing in travel and entertainment? How are these different pockets doing. Then I also look at technology, and not so much the coding and things, but the infrastructure. You know, are they attracting investments in things like data centers or they have a technical interest here they want to build technology out because it's just a great place

to put technical things, So they're working on that. Then there's all the support parts of the economy that are here to help the gaming and entertainment industry thrive. So even if you're not directly working in travel and at leisure on the strip, you're actually supporting the broader economy by doing distribution and supplies, and so their economy is really built on that. But if you ask what's the one thing they would get worried about, it's are the

flights coming in? Are the guests coming because that drives a lot of their economy. The technology is something they're looking to build too, but it's not something that's driving their economy.

Speaker 2

We see a lot of development always in Las Vegas. You said it's always reinvaying itself.

Speaker 5

It is always reinventing, buildings getting.

Speaker 2

Torn down and big buildings built and being built up. One of the things we've heard is that Las Vegas has been sort of advanced in minimizing the regulatory constraints, the permitting of things. We've talked to people who say they're building things here much faster than in some other parts of your district like Los Angeles, San Francisco. Absolutely, how true is that?

Speaker 5

It is true?

Speaker 19

So one of the things that we know is that there's federal laws about zoning and other things, but most of the zoning and where you can build, and how you can build, and what kind of like fixtures you have to have, that all comes from localities or states and Vegas because they need to reinvent themselves and bring this these new buildings along. That's part of their attraction. They have to be faster, they have to be better, they have to be less expensive.

Speaker 2

That combination of speed, quality, and affordability sets Las Vegas apart, and Jason Strauss says it's why projects at the size and scale of Tow's New day Club can happen here.

Speaker 1

I don't think I need to tell you anything more. You can just look at where we are and how we are just dead center of the middle of the strip, all the famous lights and sound that make Less Vegas famous, or right in the middle end here on the Omnious Guy Deck.

Speaker 5

You're completely immersed in it.

Speaker 1

You can have food and drink, you can enjoy it any day of the week, open seven days a week, and this we think is going to be a really special experience.

Speaker 2

It's experiences like these that have long drawn people to Las Vegas, a city built on reinvention, risk, and the willingness to take a chance on what comes next.

Speaker 17

I think it's the most American thing we've got, isn't it. I Mean it's kind of frontier, it has the cowboy world to it. It's everybody's got a shot. It's sort of like it's America in miniature because so many different people go there, right from all over the country. So it's like in America for America.

Speaker 2

That does it for us. Here at Wall Street Week, I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories of capitalism

Speaker 8

Many years

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