Bolsonaro Trumps Brazil Pt. 2

vote or impeachment. And so day in the streets in the capital where when all the masks and weaping flash into the basket, goes by the parliament or by the ballot, doesn't matter. All that matters is banding together. So we see the fascist fall. What's happening? What's good? People? I'm dope knife, I'm little Franca and we are waiting our reparations. You know what it is? Hey me my money? Hurry a hell up with that? How are you doing? I

am fine. I just got out of city hall. Uh. You know, I feel like we had a good meeting. Declared Columbus Day, Indigenous People's Day. Uh, so fucking fuck you Columbus, burning in hell right now? Your day is over and it is now Indigenous People's day here and change probably a lot um. It was funny because in our resolution that we passed, it's like, oh, we're gonna seek ways to govern with like, you know, the ancestral knowledge of the indigenous people whose lands has belonged to

I'm just right up with my colleagues. I was like, yeah, if y'all want to do that, maybe we should consider giving the land back. Yeah, like because think about it, okay, because I've been studying land back a little bit, like as a movement, and it's public lands. It's not like all of the white people and black people when Mescan people like in there, like the homes they owned and their condos or whatever, we're gonna give their condo to like the muscoge It's it's all. It's about public lands.

So I'm like, you know what, why don't we just give Why do we give them the park? Give him the parks? Because like and got all these old white people here in the commission Mey're like, oh, well, we'll put up signs. I'm mom, I'm according the podcast. My mom's here. She's looking out for the baby, making herself a drink. Making yourself a drink. She's leaving. Now, just start over. You gonna keep that keep going, Okay, I have to keep it. A umm oh, I feel like

I'm back in toil again, Like oh ruined my prom night? Anyway? Uh yeah, and her generational living got to normalize it as millennials and Gen Z become increasingly economically precarious living with our parents, can't afford fucking rent anyway, kind of things that are I'm sorry to me to cut you off. What's up now? I was just speaking of the things that are your multi gen generational or changing amongst the generations.

You know, we're of the Internet generation in particular, were like the that millennial age that's like the last of the people who were alive and kicking before the Internet took over the world. Yeah, I don't like, I wouldn't say I remember life before the Internet, like distinctly. I remember when I when I first got the Internet, but I don't have very distinct memories from before that. Okay, I was like seven or something when I first like logged onto a O L or something. Yeah. Okay, so

see I'm I'm I'm I'm older than you. So yeah, and I definitely remember, yeah, because for a long time. I Mean, the thing is, it's hard for me to remember what it was now, but like I remember that I lived through it, you know what I mean. So it's like I wasn't old enough that I was dry been anywhere personally looking at map quests and stuff like that.

But I'm young enough to remember when people have to use like map quests, when that was first becoming a thing before GPS and even before map quest, when people have to use like regular maps and stuff like that. Like I remember going on road trips with my parents when they have to use like regular maps because you couldn't just look stuff up, and when you have to use a thesaurus in a dictionary, and like encyclopedia is

like actual encyclopedia is not. I'll never forget when I was on tour at one time, both me I like shattered my tour manager's phone into a pool of water. Not only did I smash the screen, I smashed it into pool of water and mine got lost in Newberg, New York. So like we were confronted with like how

do we find figure out how to get home? And like how novel it was to look up the directions and write it down on the back of an envelope and like, I hope we don't miss a turn, and then like it felt so like magical and renegade and just anachronistic. Well, we only bring it out just because of the revelations about Facebook that have come up, you know, the whole social media thing. That's definitely something that you know,

older generations and haven't had to deal with obviously. But it was reported through a leaker that Facebook had known how harmful Facebook and Instagram were two young users, and not only did they conceal that information, but they actually tried to get rid of that information. They knew that their algorithm was making teenage girls uh like suicidal and having eating disorders. Like they knew this to be true and did not do and they just continued to prioritize

profit over the mental health of the whole generation. In a nutshell, what their their own research concluded was that facebooks it has to have its business model has to be on polarization and spreading hatred because the more angry that people are I guess, I don't know this is how. This is what they figured out. The more angry that people are then the longer they spent on Facebook, the longer they spent on Facebook, the more likely they are to click and add. When they click and add, Facebook

gets money. So they made you know what I mean, at the risk of I guess this is a public health thing, right, at the risk of public health. They chose the profit margins over the good of the people. And then and then on top of that, a few days later, you know, the whole ship just gonna like crash, like out the blue, like we're yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm sure that was an accident there, like doing something quick.

Look over here, child, Yeah that I mean to demand behind the curtain, they could have tried to be a little bit more. I don't less obvious that that is. That's like some movie ship right there. It's like, oh my god, the leaker came out. It was either a distraction or was totally like taking my ball and going home, like, oh really, you guys are gonna call us out for making teen girls suicidal. Well, I guess I guess we'll just take away Facebook. Then, I guess you just can't

have it if you don't appreciate what you have. Well, earlier, we were talking about how much money Mark Zuckerberg lost you even though the point that you were making is like seven billion dollars to him, ain't nothing that's true. But I don't think I don't think most people are willing to lose seven billion dollars just to do some Nena na boo bu ship you know what I mean. I think I think it was much more like, oh

my god, the documents have come out, what do we do? Yeah, the shadowy figures that like control Zuckerberg's limbs via like satellite or whatever and like make his face to human facial expressions, sat them down there, Like, look, bro, can I take this out? We have to continue to extract profit out of the suffering of children. I mean, people realize that it's happening so well. The thing is, Facebook has to be one of the biggest, most powerful companies

to ever have existed in the history. If you, I mean, if like if companies that are far smaller than Facebook have existed over the years and have like just from the sheer greed and from the from the sheer like implicit greed that that's there with like a corporate structure. You know what I'm saying, They've reached havoc on generations

of the world. What the funk do y'all really think the like most powerful one out of those in the history of humanity is gonna do you know what I'm saying, Like like, this is just this ship because it's been leak The book hasn't been written on what the fun Facebook is doing or what they're gonna be responsible for. So stay tuned on that ship. This is just some

surface ship. Going back to the nanny Nannie Boo boo hypothesis, However, I mean this picture also Mark Zuckerberg, like riben a fat line in his office like, yeah, shut it all down. What do you mean, sir? Yes said shut it all down, sir, You'll lose billions of dollars. I can fu dude. If they don't appreciate me, they will see And it's just like line after line, no shirt on. That's the social network version of So I don't know, Nannie booboo is

still plausible. That's the Jesse Eisenberg Zuckerberg, that berg Berg an never Berg connected. Wow, Oh yeah, what's the what else? Yeah? What else with your Oh yoh me. I'm I've got this single that I got coming out soon. I finally made the Hometown Joint, you know what I'm saying. I got the Savannah the Savannah Joint. So, you know, like the thing is, I'm just now it's like I've been doing the whole thing independent for a while, but the last few projects that I've done have been with like

small indie labels, you know what I'm saying. So in a way, it's kind of like I'm out of the loop of like consistently releasing my own music on my own. I mean, I'm gonna be I'm gonna be working with the label for the album, but like I just wanted to put out just some random songs leading up to it. So right now I'm in the process of like you know, it's almost like I'm starting from scratch, like I'm a new artist. It's like, oh man, all right, I gotta

get get in on this TikTok thing. All right, let me start doing Let's start making TikTok videos and ship and oh man, I guess I have to start paying more attention to my Instagram show. So I'm going through a lot of emotions. A lot of that is you know, like a learning experience in a way for me. So it's like it's added a layer of I guess, invigoration, because you know, I don't like doing ship unless I can get good at it. So it's one of those

things same. Oh my god, we're the same. I don't like, like, I don't like playing board games with people, like only Scrabble, because I could dominate everything. I know how to play exactly every chess. I have to learn the rules of new game, and you're gonna beat me the first five times that, like the I saw I got out of gaming and stuff. Whenever like any of my friends like, yo, let's play Call of Duty, I'm like, bet, let's get it. I'm like pulling out the version from like two thousand

and eight. They're looking at me, like, yo, what you're doing. I was like, no, I can't, I can't do it. But anyway, Yeah, so I'm doing that whole thing with the song and stuff. And you know that we're gonna be hearing more about that in November because that's when it's coming out. I don't want to bother teasing it now, but to let people know that there is new music coming out and um yeah, so what we got going

on today on the show. So today on the show, we're gonna go on to part two, continuation of our topic from last week, discussing the rise of fascism potential for a coup in Brazil with UM writer researcher author of the new book The End of the End of History. Alex Hoculey was based in Sal Paulo, Brazil, and UH has written on the topic of UM. You know Brazilian fascism and you know that it's threats to democracy for

Jackoman and other outlets. So after the jump, we'll be getting into it with Alex, and then afterwards we'll be coming back to talk a little bit about other manifestations of of of political unrest and hip hop UM with a couple of artists at are Real Dope. So stay tuned for that. Any ready, let's get it and go.

Let's go. So today I'm excited to be joined by Alex Hoculey, UM writer and researcher based in South Polo, host of the Bunk of Cast podcast and author of the recent book The End of the End of History here to talk to us a little bit about UM, the anti Bosonaro protests that took place over the weekend, as well as just the general context in which they're Um, they've taken place. So Alex, how are you today? I'm I'm reasonably well, thank you. Yeah, it's a bit chilly

here in in some Follo. We're not fully out of winter yet, but I'm really yeah yeah. Um, is it rain a lot in South Polo. It rained a ton when I lived in port Olegry, just like all the time. It's super clue me. It depends what your standards are. I used to live in London, so by contrast, and Polo doesn't rain very much. No, all right, well let's get into it. Um. Let's start off. I'd love to

hear um about how it went over the weekend. We talked a little bit last week in the lead up to this episode, UM that there would be some anti Bosonaro protests across for the in response to the Pro Bowlsonario protests I took place in September. So what was

the turnout and what was the coalition like industry. It's well, I mean I was here in some follow I still am, and I'd gone along to the protests on Sunday and these were set up to be the first big anti Bolsonado protests on the left, and that's an important qualification on the left for quite a while, for quite a couple of months, since since around June or something was

the last one. UM. The turnout was decent, but at the same time the protests lacked a bit of energy and was strangely fragmented, based around uh, different activist groups on the streets, different parties or for example, the student unions or different trade unions, and so as a consequence, uh, it maybe wasn't a kind of massive show of force on the part of the left um in the way

that might have been expected. I think an important the backdrop to this, and I guess the baseline against which we compare these left wing protests have been recent protests by the right. So on on September the seventh, and I guess we'll come along, we'll come on to talk

a little bit more about that. But both there were probol Snado protests, which was the biggest organized demonstration by pro Bowls forces since he was elected in twenty eighteen, and that one mobilized a hundred thousand plus people in tom Pollo and in Brazilia the federal capital UM, but not in other other state capitals and so that was a big turnout, but obviously there was a huge amount invested into that, both both kind of morally as well as financially. Uh and so that was seen to be

a bit of a flaw. Then a couple of weeks ago you had right wing anti BOLSNATO demonstrations. Um, if you can do that. So they are groups who led by groups like the Free Brazil movement for example, or come to this Treats, which were groups that were formed around to fight for the impeachment of the Workers Party president at the time, Juma Hussat, something they ultimately succeeded in in in pushing, albeit you know, with a lot of parliamentary maneuvering that went on behind that to lead

to the parliamentary coup. Of these groups then, I mean, if you were to ask them and if they had to respond, honestly, I'm pretty sure all of them would have voted for Bosonado. But they see themselves as more liberal, I mean liberal, not in the American sense meaning left wing,

but liberal in the sense of economically liberal. Right, So they're kind of neoliberal groups who don't identify with the sort of uh more kind of culture war orientation of Bosonado and maybe reject some of the more obvious or naked authoritarianism. But you know, ultimately these are these are these are both not East does with buyer's remorse, if

you want to put it that way. UM. And they manage very small numbers, They manage very small numbers, and I think that proves that that sort of politics just has no base in Brazil today. And so all the right wing who had previously been Antique Juma, who had been anti workers party, voted for Bolsonado, and now the electorate is pretty polarized between Bolsonado and uh looking and the left then probably looking to vote Lula in in in So in that context, you know, how did the

left wing protest do? It was okay, but it wasn't uh. You know, it was still mainly the sort of activist basis of different groups of different parties without real sort

of mass support. And so I think in some of the coverage I was reading UM there were some UM folks interviewed who were around for April ten, imagine eighty four, and like sort of hoping that this moment could be similar to that one UM in Brazil and that it was a watershed moment for the end of the military dictatorship, and so I was wondering what you might think the potential impacts would be of this protest, though it did not have perhaps the numbers, the show of force that

folks were hoping that it would. Yeah, I mean, it's strange to kind of read the political temperature. I think there's an element of, you know, we're a year away from the election. There's an element maybe just of let's just wait until the election. Bolsonarto looks pretty likely to lose, you know, he's pulling it around in the first round.

Brasil has two rounds of presidential election, so the first two front runners go to a second round if neither achieves over and so Bolsono in the first round is pulling and in the second round only round I e showing he has a very hardcore base which is not abandoning him and won't abandon him. But he's not able

to reach very far beyond that. I suspect when an election comes he'll be able to reach a little bit further, especially as it will be against Lula um former president of the Workers Party, who is uh well, who's still hated by you know, a section of a verity substantial section of the population still, so I think the reality is that the protests won't have kind of transformed anything, and there's a sense of well still a sense of exhaustion, you know, the brazil has and then this is an

important context had on the first kind of political level, had waves of mobilization since which have been very important, and there are sequences of protests one after the other, uh, both on the left and then especially on the right. And there's maybe an element of just exhaustion that there was a very intense period of five years of mobilive stream mobilizations which has now been exhausted. Then you have the pandemic. Then you have a severe economic crisis which

still continues. Brasil hasn't really recovered from the crisis of and then on top of that you have the fact that prices are rising pretty severely, so there's a lot of inflation fuel and food price inflation, which is buying

really hard. You know, like having a barbecue and having beef is a pretty big part of Brazilian culture and you lived in the south there to yeah, but it's big across the country, and you know, Brazilians aren't able to beef now because or you know me people have had to really cut their consumption of beef because prices have written so much. But also chicken, pork, rice, beans, everything, all the staples, um, And so at the moment, there's

just a sense of like maybe kind of hunkering down. Um, if you want to talk about kind of what could change, if I want to you know, make some prognoses, UM. I think one thing to keep an eye on in terms of whether people will be driven to the streets, whether there whether there will be some you know, real anger against Bols rather than just a sense of slumping

towards the next election. There's the fact that Brazil is facing possible blackouts, like rolling blackouts because there has been a lot of drought, which means that the hydro power plants don't have enough water and uh, and so they're happy to depend on some sort of other energy sources. And there looks like they'll have to be some sort of rationing and blackouts. If that happens, that might be a bit of a trigger and who knows where that

might lead. But I think it's worth you know, kind of we tried to look across the rest of the continent. And if you can see the sort of mass demonstrations and uprisings you've had in Colombia, in Ecuador and in Chile over the past two years, um one one, you know, and all of those into different degrees driven by you know, sudden increases and prices or in taxes and things like that,

it's not impossible that something similar happens in Brazil. Oh. Sorry you it's snagged for a second, so it's just pausing to let it catch up. Um. But um, in your peace and um Jacobin, you said that a coup is perhaps more likely than we herewd in the States and the lead up to last year's presidential election, but still unlikely. And I wondered if you could break down

for us a little bit of why I think that is. Yeah, So, I mean I would kind of discourage any comparisons to the US, I think, just to make this clear, or at least to make my perspective clear. I don't think there was any risk whatsoever of a coup in the

US generate six of completely overblown. It was just a couple of malcontents being angry and police force, you know, forces let them into the capital and nothing really happened, there's no risk of the military or sections of the establishment breaking with democratic norms and backing Trump to to remain in power. I don't think that was the case at all. In Brazil, the situation is obviously far more precarious one because democracy UM, such as it is, is

much less consolidated. The elite are less wedded to kind of the institutional reality, the kind of general kind of

norms and things like that. UM and you know, democrat has been seriously weak and since the a sixteen parliamentary coup or institutional coup against Juma Josaphim of the Workers Party UM and you know, Bolsonado to a certain extent represented the consummation of that coup because you had kind of new, clean elections which sort of wiped the slate clean and made everybody forget somehow that this institutional rupture

had happened. Bolsonado, wild in power, has consistently threatened institutions, and not necessarily democratic institutions. I mean, most of his recent fire has been turned against the Supreme Court, which is you know, not a it's a countermajoritarian institution, right, It's not UM, it's not a representative of the people who the people elect. UM. But so it kind of has this weird sort of shadow theater element to it,

where Bolsonado is fighting with other powers. UM. So you know, he's there sat in the presidential palace, you know, firing barbs at the Supreme Court, and that's all often Brazilia, UM, and like it kind of doesn't involve the massive people, right, So it's kind of kind of has this weird sort

of spectral quality to it. Nevertheless, the threats are you know, concerning UM, but there I don't think they're he I mean, he's aware that he doesn't have mass support, and so it's not like, um, you'd have a repeat of sort of the nineteen sixty four military coup in Brazil, which lasted twenty one years and had the support of the military, the whole of the bourgeoisie, large parts of the kind

of the middle class, and the United States. You know, that whole configuration, which is a kind of classic Cold War sort of coup, wouldn't happen today. So despite some sort of left wing fears of suddenly they're being tanks on the streets, I don't see that happening UM, or at least if there were to be some coup or some more obvious rupture with democracy, it would happen in in a different way. And and and if you look around the world, you know these things nowadays are happening much

more or um kind of gradual way. So, I mean, if you just want to take the example of like Turkey or of Hungry, all of which are sliding towards authoritarianism, it's all done by elected presidents who kind of wear away at at democratic checks and balances, um. And that would be possible in Brazil, would Bolsonado be re elected,

But that at the moment isn't looking plausible. So a lot of the worry in the lead up to the September the seventh protests, which were the big pro pro Bowlsonado protests um were was that they would try to invade the Supreme Court building or even try to launch

a coup. And then there's questions over like who the major institutional forces and actors are there who would back that, right, so you have to it's you know, president just can't design to do a coup, right, you know, you need you need, you need troops or something, right, and his his um administration is packed to the rafters with military officers, both at the level of his cabinet with like top generals, but also throughout the kind of top levels of the

federal administration. He's packed it with military men um, so they are kind of guaranteeing his his um his presidency. But on the other hand, it's not entirely clear whether they want to break with democracy and whether they would want to rule directly, whether they want the responsibility for that.

They've already overseen this Polson not appeared, which has been a disaster economically in health terms, you know, Polsandre has obviously like denied the pandemic and not lifted a finger to do anything, declined to buy vaccines when he could above vaccines. People in the administration try to buy vaccines, but with some like little graph scheme where they get paid extra to buy vaccines and stuff like that. So

it's obviously been a complete social and political disaster. And I don't know if the military, you know, want more of that basically, so that's not entirely clear. They might be more interested in maintaining their own privileges um and being seen as defenders of the constitution than in actually taking power and ruling directly, so that's not entirely clear. The other element is Brazil's massive military police forces. Now

these are police forces. They're like neat cops, but they're also riot cops and responsible for a huge number of murders every year. Uh, they are in they're organized at a state level, but and so they're commanded by the state governors. But they in total number larger than the army, and it's actually the largest armed body of men in

Latin America. And they are very very pro Bowlsonado. And that's concerning There was a lot of talk before September seven that these police officers would maybe mutiny or at the very least show up at the demonstrations, either in uniform or in plain clothes, something that's illegal. By the way, you're not allowed as a police officer to to kind of manifest yourself politically. That didn't seem to happen, so

you know, that's good at least. Um So you know, if you're asking me to kind of draw to to sort of sum up and asked, say, what, how likely who actually would be? I think the the scenario would demand some sort of wider instability or outbreak of mass disorder of some sort for then the military to feel they have to intervene to to kind of give just cause for a coup. I don't think there would be a coup kind of um, you know, like like lightning on a on a on a on a clear day

sort of thing. Yeah. And even given some of the economic pecurity that the Brazilian working classes facing, given the pandemic, and you know, the fallout for the economy, um, that sort of social upheaval doesn't seem likely. No, exactly, I mean if there's I mean, of course, if there were some sort of uh, you know, just for the sake of argument, if they're mass protests and riots with rolling blackouts.

I mean, this is completely purely speculative. UM. I don't like to kind of go go into kind of fearmongering or whatever. But but if in that in that scenario, then yes, the middle the dream might feel they need to put you know, put put troops on the streets, which is something that they did in in Rio relatively recently, where they took over policing um, in response to the

kind of insecurity situation there. But you know, it was fairly badly handled, responsible for a lot of killings, the security situation didn't improve, so it ended up being a little bit for show. So it's not again, I think the likelihood would be more that the military would enter

into like a sort of peacekeeping capacity. Let's and I say that kind of ironically because Brazil did send peacekeeping troops to Haiti and had a big presence there, and we're responsible for loads of human rights abuses and things like that. So, um, when I say peacekeeping, I don't mean to say that that's like a good thing, um.

But but yeah, so I I guess, you know, summing up, I think they would need to be some sort of they would need to see some sort of just cause of some sort of mass unrest for them to then intervene. Well that's good news, I mean in the sense that it seems like despite some of the fears, um, it would have been stoked recently, especially I think um in the international media that's been picked up a lot um

regarding the potential for a coup. Um seems like, you know, the elections coming up next year hopefully be a peaceful transfer of power, and if you could, you know, I'm not sure there would be a peaceful transfer. Yeah, So this is the thing. I'm not sure there'll be a peaceful transfer of power. I mean, I think that's not

a will kick up a fuss in some sense. And has already been uh semming the seeds for a long time, arguing that the voting system, which is in Brazil fully electronic, were far more advanced in the United States here Um, no hanging chats or anything like that. UM. And it's been something which has no which has never had any credible allegations of fraud against it. The system is pretty secure, it works, etcetera. It delivers results pretty immediately, and that's that.

But Bolson has been for a long time trying to undermine faith in it, and of course it has no basis in reality. But that, of course, that's not the point. The point is to demoralize, um, demoralized the election, demoralized people's faith in democracy. Uh And and so he already has alleged that the election which he won was fraudulent, which of course is It is kind of question. But again this is kind of following Trump's tactics UM and

often quite explicitly self consciously. UM. And he's going to do the same in UM. And there's gonna be a lot of kind of you know, propaganda from him. You know what is now called fake news, but I prefer to just be more traditional and called propaganda. Um and uh and and so I think you know, whether he leaves office peacefully or not, I mean, it depends what

you define its peacefully. I think there will be some sort of resistance on his part, some lawsuits, maybe they'll be protests, because of course his hardcore base is relatively strong. It's not a huge part of the population, but it's maybe a nucleus of like or something, and you know that's still substantial enough, uh that it can cause you know,

serious disruption. And the So I think, at least in terms of the most ideal the sectors which are most ideologically wed to him, I mean the real hardcore kind of nutty culture warrior types who follow him and hardcore authoritarians. They they might not accept the election result. And I don't know what goes from there, you know what what the next step there would be, Um, whether there would be some kind of here sort of um making a US comparison to spite what I said earlier, like a

kind of generally six sort of moment. But perhaps a

bit more destabilizing. I think the question you always have to ask, you know, is not like, oh, are there lots of people who are angry and are going to cause a mess, but you know, what are the institutional forces and what are the balance of forces kind of across society, And I think a lot of institutional actors you know of Bolsonado were to lose the election pretty clearly, um and the winner was to be Lula, who would then have stitched up a lot of deals with a

lot of the olderly, with a lot of the military establishment, with a lot of congressmen who trace their own histories back to the dictatorship when they were kind of the civil participants in the dictatorship rights a lot of bad guys. Lula will have stitched up a lot of deals with them, and he is currently doing that right. So it's important also to note as an asside that any Lula government

will not be a radical government. It won't even be as moderate center left as it was the first time round from two thousand and two until it will be a government which is completely compromised um with the old establishment. So will it be better than Bolsonado, for sure, But there should be no real left wing enthusiasm for the return of Lula, maybe only relief that Polsonado has gone. Um So, I think if Lula is able to manage that and able to do deals, and if if Lula

does one thing, it's it's does deals. I mean, that is his thing. He's a great conciliator. Ever since his more radical trade union days in the seventies. He was a guy who always made deals right, who always found a middle path, is able, is good with people and so on. Um So, if he's able to do that, then why would a lot of the elites decided to, you know, support Bolsonado's claims that he was frauded out

of of an election. The instability ensuing from that, um is probably not worth their while because ultimately they're far more narrowly self interested in, for example, making their sectional interests known and defended. So, you know, if finance is happy with Lula, if Lula is not gonna curtail Agri business too much, which is you know, one of the main bolson those main backers, then I think they'll go

along with that. You know, It's important to note that among Bolsonados, like capitalists support the hardest core of that is Actrive business and as well as some kind of

sections of kind of big retail and things like that. Um, he's kind of lost a lot of the sort of financial classes support because they because Bolsonado hasn't been a total hardcore neoliberal in terms of prioritizing some various kind of reforms right kind of tax reform, pension reform and things like that, and as a consequence, um, and as a consequence like he they don't see him necessarily as

their guy. Agrive business still sees Bolsonado as their guy, but they're not ideologically wedded him on mass you know, it's still kind of a sectional interest. It's just you know, kind of narrowly narrowly self interested in economic terms. So um, yeah, I I'm not sure that they would necessarily force erupt with the democracy for all the problems that that would cause.

If I can highlight like another thing of kind of what might still happen, because there's been a lot of talk about impeachment of polson There's been over a there's been over a hundred impeachment requests filed against him. And because of the configuration of Congress and his Bolsonado's appointees and everything that won't advance because he's basically bought off Congress with enough pork pork barrel spending that they won't

seek to impeach him. But if he's losing support and there's a door now opening to impeach him, then they the conditions might be changing and make it more likely. The reason they might want to impeach Bolsonado is that they know that the elections pull right between Bolsonado and Lula,

neither of whom they want. And so if there's a possibility of a potential third way candidate, and of course, like all the newspapers, all the major newspapers have been talking up various different third way candidates, and it's the usual thing, you know, they kind of float a blue and then they go, hey, this guy is young and innovative and modern, and we're going to bring him in and exactly and what happens is that, like you know, he flatlines in the polls and nothing happens, and no

one talks about him for again, like after a month. Um, and that's happening now and like it will continue happening. But the reality is that none of them are pulling over like in double digits and that's not going to change.

And the parties are also themselves like, oh now kind of because Brazil has a hugely fragmented party system, has like twenty seven different parties, and so they're a lot of them are now joining up together because of some electoral form allowing them to to kind of combine into into sort of new party unions, and that they're now concerned with that, which also shows that they're not interested in necessarily in fielding a third party candidate, because a

third way candidates and so to speak, because they're mainly guarantee looking at kind of guaranteeing enough TV air time

and getting congress people re elected and so on. So I see, so because of that inability to really get any wind behind a third way candidate, the only way they could maybe managed that would be to take Polsonado out of the game and therefore open up the field on the right for a kind of more traditional right wing figure who is in Pulsonado, And so that might that might yet happen, whether it's in a whether it's an impeachment or um the canceling of his electoral slate,

which has never ever happened before, but because they have all these allegations of improper use of fake news during the election, especially via what's happened lots of kind of illegal funding, which is something that was obviously which obviously fell foul of electoral rules back in and everybody knew about it, but they were never going to act on it. Um. You know that the Supreme Court was never gonna act on it. But they've had this in their back pocket

and so they might still yet act on it. And that would mean not just Polsonado being impeached, but it actually would mean that the slate would be canceled. The vice president would also lose his position, and everybody running

with them would be out, would be out exactly. Yeah, so that whole presidential state would be out and then until the election, so let's say, you know whatever, it would be ten months or you know, until that would until the election, Brazil would then elect a president indirectly in Congress, right, so kind of parliamentary system, um. And that's the big concern that that if that were a short term then it would matter so much and there'd be new there'll be new elections as planned in October.

But Brazil's Congress has always been trying to maneuver towards a parliamentary system, which would be really and anti democratic because congress is already kind of a mess um stock filled with you know, kind of a bunch of reactionaries. Um. And you know, the parliament, the congressional elections are much more sort of clientilistic than the presidential elections, which are

kind of the most democratic part of Brazil's system. And if you and if you switch the parliamentary system, that basically means that that a bunch of congressmen who have no popularity whatsoever can then indirectly choose a president. And so they're always trying to maneuver towards that, and that's

quite concerning. Um. So you know, when I say that there's no coup attempt or that that the risks of a coup are probably not that great, that isn't to say that Brazilian democracy is in a healthy state at all. I see, I appreciate you breaking it all down, um, And I wanted to see if you want to let people know where they could follow you, get your new book or anything like that. Yeah, no, thanks for having me.

I uh, I am active on on Alpha Bunga Bunga, which is at Bunga Cast on all social media or bunga cast dot com. That's um my global politics podcast with which which I co host with to other guys, George and Phil Um. We now have a big series coming out on generational poul Takes, which maybe your listeners would be interested in checking out. And my book The End of the End of History Is is on sale now, kind of covering uh this, this strange moment that we're

living in of of an increasingly turbulent political world. All right, well, thanks so much for being here with us. Oh, let me get I gotta, I gotta Okay, So if this cat's name am Sita, real name Leandro Roque de ali Vera. It's been making music for more than a decade, Born um and based in saw Paolo Um. He's recorded three albums and in doing so built up a reputation as one of Brazil's top hip hop mcs. Um. It's also, in the past year two years, emerged as one of

the country's most influential cultural figures. All right, let's check out this track real quick. So do we know if he's bosonar Rista. I get the feeling from the lyrics. He's not a Bolsonarousta in that his lyrics come across very like, you know, very laboratory, like diagnosing the ills of racism, the you know, the ills of our our history with enslavement and uh police repression, which like you know, Bolsonaro loves the police. What I understand, Bolsnaro hates the

blacks and the pores. So I'm gonna I'm gonna assume there's like not they don't really. He looks way too cool to fuk with them. He looks way too cool, like I want to be this Nick's friends. I'm gonna be your friend. Look at the look look at the stings with the little parts in the hair. Sorry found this picture of him. Yeah, they can't sure, but yeah, yeah,

he's looking fresh to death. And the couplings, Lord of mercy, the little wire and glasses, and the fucking beat goes hard and then you got you know, got mc going in talking about you know, the police van is a slave ship and the slums of the slave quarters he's talking about. He's like talking, you know, harkening back to Angola, Congo, Soweto, like his you know African Homelands and uh talking about Ben Lodden getting made in the USA and fucking talking

about the KKK. And so he's talking about all these different like inter national intersections between you know, we're like we're at the middle of which comes like the Black Resilian struggle, which has many parallels to the Black American struggle. So beat goes hard hard, the lyrics go hard. Videos of note too, it's uh, it's got like a scene of workers revolt in like like would you I got plantation vibes, Although I don't know that they explicitly showed

it was a plantation house. I'm sure I'm sure that parallel was the implication was. Um they're intentional. Oh yeah, they're like like understated, but like definitely you know, trying to nod a little bit to it because I mean, yeah, we're still living on a plantation hard. Instrumentally I was, I was making this comment before we came back from the jump, But instrumentally it makes me feel like old school uh Black Eyed Peas before Fergie, like those sort

of beats. All right, enough of admiring homies wardrobe, who we got next or next? Okay, Um, this is not a hip hop song, and I don't think I've ever deviated from the genre of focus in the history of the show, but god damn, this is a banger, and AlSi Sauarez, who sings the song, is ninety fucking years old, so I thought I had to give a shout out to the homie also while bringing attention to the fact that this song I'm get of feem dumundo, which means

women at the end of the world. There's like a fucking feminist anthem in an arrow where both Scenaro's out here making jokes about rape and talking about how you know, women are idiots. Like, I feel like this is a really powerful song worth giving a listen to. Let's give it a spend real quick. Okay, yeah that yeah, that ship is dope. I love the instrumental for it, man,

that piano pluck. You nailed it. You explain exactly why I felt because it's a good fit, because it's got this instrumental feeling like where it feels like it feels like any second the bars are gonna drop. Yeah, it feels like a beat, you know, like, yeah, that sounds like somebody made that be in an MPC. You know, up, shut up, I see, yeah, I can see West Ruler shout out of West like doing a little thing on

the B pad with the piano. Which if no one has sampled this song, uh, maybe they should because it's yeah, you know, to get a loop going with the fucking in the background and ship. So why don't you tell the people what the songs about? So, um, the song it's it's it's the showcases feminist resistance to oppression. Um, in lines like on the avenue, I left there my black skin and my voice, my home, my loneliness. I

threw it from the third floor. So it's sort of like about throwing out all the ship that's like holding you back with reference to you know, skin color with two gender uh, and sort of like rising above it, like laughing even in the face of insurmountable ops. You know.

She described herself as a woman at the end of the world who will sing until the end, who will sing until the end of the world, and so um there was a lot of like violence against women and femicide going on in Brazil at the time that the song was written. Um, and so sort of like I guess giving it's sort of just like an anthem. So it's just like an anthem for like this backdrop of violence, of oppression, of just general struggle struggle against fascism, like

you know, keeping your head high above that. While not overtly political and its content, it's one of those things where like it's inherently politiful and that it is resistance and embodies resistance and so I really nope, those are the best type of political songs in my opinion, best type. It's not preachy. It's not like, Hey, goes out and vote kids and then fucking corny as ship I do in my dumbass music. Um, Hey, you know it's true. I'm like so voting for for shareff. Who are you

gonna come to solicitor general? It's not true. It's a style. It's a style corny as hell, and I and I embrace it. It's great but no, it's like understated but just empowering. It's good ship, don't know that's worth it? In this bit to tell good for you, good for

you else Suarez and it's black is now. Our next song is a Yo Data by Jonga O Yo da Tigre means I have a tiger um and Jonga is a bella horizontal born rapper, who interestingly was among the finalists for Best International Rapper for the BT Hip Hop Awards last year. Um. In this track, John calls out racism against brack Resilians while taking a jab at balls Naro rhyming, whoever has the my color is a thief. Whoever has the color of Eric Clapton is a clapt

To maniac. I'm sorry, that's hilarious to me, uh because he didn't the air Clapton end up being real racist against like immigrants or some ship. And I want thinking another, right, guy? There was something with air Clapton, you know, like him and who's the other guy? Um, I don't know, man, one of these guitar playing white. Yeah, the ship Morrissey. Yeah. It's like you know, every every other day is like yeah, so Morrissey said this, Yo, So Morrissey said that we

can't funk with Morrissey no more. And I'm sitting over here, like, who the fuck is Morrissey? Man? All right, you know, alright, I don't know cool, yeah, legit and Doll crucified me for this listeners, But like, I don't know if I could name a Eric Clapton song off the top of my head. But I remember his racist Tears in Heaven. Tears in Heaven, Tears in Heaven. I just couldn't name one. And what was the other one? He did a joint.

There was a movie with John Travolta back in the day called Phenomenon, and he did the theme song for with baby Face. It was him and baby Face was called change the World, like if I could change the world. They sing it a lot better than that, But you know what I'm saying, really know anyway, I didn't know that was possible. I don't. Let's check out this damn song. Alright, let's yeah. He talks about how at the time of judgment,

God is black and Brazilian. Love that um, And then in in this little Jabbitt Bossnarrow here he says, and to save the country a Christian ex military man who thinks that women getting together as a horhouse. So he's like, oh you think, oh, you think this guy, this Christian quote unquote Christian guy, that's quote unquote military guy who like thinks women are slugs. This guy is gonna save

your country. Well, at the time of judgment, God is black and Brazilian, and he's gonna not gonna be pleased with this ship. So is he really popular? Oh yeah, it's mad popular. So we also last year, I believe took home the MTV MIA Beat UH Brazil Awards, apparently it's a big deal. During his ward ship performer um

on top of the roof of a building. Um. This is uh also gets back into the politics of his music, which like they are found throughout his music and music music videos and encourage you all to take a look

at up them all lots of examples. But at this award show performance, he drove up home an anti resist racist message featuring background dancers for shirts imprinted with the slogan potterm dinose matar, which means stop killing us, which apparently in Brazil it's also a huge slogan for like the anti racist movement, which I don't know if it's like an offshoot of Black Lives Matter or just like the very simple statement of police talk killing us just

has this resonance languages. Yeah, like it's going to be applied to any populations. Yeah, yeah, I don't know, it's like the inspiration from what's happening here or is it just literally that is Wow, we should probably look look at that because I mean, is that just too coin sidental movements right up? Straight up? I mean so much, so much. What I also I think is revealed in the music of m sid of of Elsa Suarez Jonga today is the parallels between the United States and Brazil.

Outside of Oh we've talked about fascism and like they have the trump of the tropics down there, also just the development of like the slavery there's like three hundred and fifty years of slavery in Brazil, you know, the way the police are murdering black people, hyper capitalism all the ship, the way that like these similar forces have cooked up similar results for both of our both of our colonies. Yeah, I guess you could say. It's interesting how you see that in the music as well, with

the themes that come up. Well, ship, we can only hope that we can only hope that they all that stuff like is defeated or quells down or admitted gate it to whatever extent it can be. It doesn't take of you, you know, gave me a little bit of hope that maybe all things are not lost. Um, but you never, I don't know. You're the smartest people. And he was a very smart man. You get caught off, you get caught I surprise sometimes like shoot him. Well, one thing that we do, one thing that we do

know that we don't get caught off surprise with. That's it. We gotta end this ship fucking bars. They never catch me off. We will be back next week. But before we go, like the homie just said, we need some bars. So Joel please, my main man, can you can you bless us with some heat yo blue collar to beat. Yeah, I'm a scholet with the heat the rhoms at a premium. You try to get him cheap. That's why Bostonara got the right wingers in the street. So every time I moved,

you know, I gotta be the street. It still is kind of here to miss to say it's I lllegit admit. He don't really like anybody with a clearly risk ground folks, clear folks of people who indigenous. You can even throw a little goose stepping in the mix. But this is in a sense we're preaching of the choir. I'm just trying to keep it dope and being creature you admire. Make a sucker, wrap a halt. Godam screeching on the tie Everything I say is crack minus either in the fire,

it's dope. Knife and Lingua franca, take about. We're a couple of superheroes with Cape and cow Listen close and I'll break it down. Keep your damn mouth shut and give us a reparations now, Yeah, I don't Knife. I'm like you're listening to Waiting on Reparations for We're Black Resilience as well as Black America. Hurry up with all of it, hurry it all up, right, it all up, See you next week. Waitning on Reparations is the production

of iHeart Radio. For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, check out the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.