Anthony Scaramucci on Trump v. Harris - podcast episode cover

Anthony Scaramucci on Trump v. Harris

Sep 06, 202451 min
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Episode description

What are the major impacts to the markets under an administration of former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris? What are the risks and opportunities? SkyBridge Capital Co-Founder and Managing Partner Anthony Scaramucci joined Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Nathan Dean and Elliott Stein to discuss the market, sector and other impacts of the US elections. He also discussed his views on the current status of the SEC and whether US policymakers will develop a new regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Hello, and welcome to the votes in Verdeckts podcast hosted by the litigation and policy team at Bloomberg Intelligence, the investment research platform of Bloomberg LP. Bloomberg Intelligence has five hundred analysts and strategists working across the globe and focused on all major markets. Our coverage includes over two thousand equities and credits and have outlooks on more than ninety industries, one hundred market industries, currencies and commodities. This podcast series

examines the intersection of business policy and law. I'm Nathan Dean, an analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence covering financials policy.

Speaker 2

And I'm Elliott Stein. I'm an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence covering and financials litigation.

Speaker 1

So our guest today is Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and capital introduction platform encompassing finance, technology, and public policy. He's also no stranger to the podcast business. He's also the host of open Book, a podcast interview series with some of the brightest minds in business, politics, entertainment, and more,

and co host of the rest of politics US. I'd like to talk more, but Anthony has done a lot in his career. So Anthony, welcome very much to the Votes and Verdicts podcast.

Speaker 3

It's great to be on with both of you guys. Thank you for the opportunity.

Speaker 2

Yeah, thanks so much, Anthony. So the first question we always ask our guests is about their history. Nathan just read, you know, a short snippet of your bio, but you know, we and our listeners would love to know more about how your career developed. You know, one thing Nathan didn't mention is that you got your BA and economics from Tufts, then you got your law degree from Harvard Law School, and then then you went straight to Goldman after graduating

law school. I believe, so what drew you to Wall Street? And you know, tell us about how you founded Skybridge, and then maybe you can also tell us about your law school experience, because I believe your classmates there included President Obama and Supreme Court Justice Neil gor.

Speaker 3

So it's interesting because you can tell people the glossed over story and I've read some of these billionaire biographies where they get everything right and the story sounds fantastic and it's nice and glossed over. But I'm just not that type of a person. I'm gonna tell you the real story, the good, bad, and the ugly, and some of it doesn't reflect well on me. But I was incredibly superficial because I had no money as a kid. My dad was a crane operator. He was a union worker,

hourly worker. There was a tremendous amount of economic anxiety in our house. I grew up in Port Washington. Some of you guys may know the area. It's an affluent area. The tip of Port Washington was actually written about in The Great Gatsby. It was East Egg There were these beautiful baronial estates on the water. But in the town of Port Washington there's a lot of middle class people, a lot of Italian American immigrants that were landscapers and

masons and sheet rock installers. And my dad, who grew up in a coal mining family. My grandfather was a coal miner in Wolkesbury, Pennsylvania. He moved out to Long Island to mine sand because it was outdoors. He responded to a classified ad. He got there in nineteen fifty three, went to the US Army for two years, came back and spent forty one years at the same company as a crane operator. And by the way, this was at a time in America where you got a living wage

in a union. So he was able to buy a sixteen thousand dollars house, which Zillo now says is worth seven hundred and eighty thousand, but and the taxes on that house are probably eighteen thousand. They're more than the purchase price of the house in nineteen sixty two. And we lived in a small house in the town of Port Washington. And I went to a great public school system. But Elliott and Nathan I had tremendous economic anxiety as a kid. And so because if my dad got his

wages cut, we got cut. If there was a boom going on, he got time and a half overtime on the weekends. It was a happier place seventy two Webster Avenue where I grew up. But I can remember my dad coming home once wages cut, lots of door slamming, glasses breaking in the house. I went out and got a paper at I was twelve years old, and I was hustling Long Island newsday around the town. I did pretty well decent salesman. I got the route up to

forty five to fifty people. I was making about forty five dollars a week, giving twenty five of it to my parents, Okay, And then when I quit that route to go play baseball, I had to get another job. So I went to go work at the local Key Food, which was like a stopping shop or a Red Lion or wherever you guys are living. And so I was stamping cans of you know, green giant peas and dill pickles and all kinds of stuff as a kid, because we had no money in the house. So why am

I saying all that's very important? Because all my life decisions were based on that have no money, going to get some money. My parents wanted me to go to school. I was scheduled to go to Sunny Binghamton, which is a state school. There was a gentleman, an Italian American

from my high school. He was my guidance counselor. He came to see my father and my mother and they must have smoked forty cigarellos and they drank sixteen pots of espresso, and they sat at the kitchen table was very small, and he told my parents an Italian, your kid is very smart. Don't let him go to the state school. It's a good school, but he should go to this other school that he got into called Tuffs And my father was looking at I thought it was

spelled toughs. He had no idea, okay, and John Zinetti told my dad he'll figure out a way to afford it. One was four thousand, the other was twenty four thousand, and so my father gave me a check in April of nineteen eighty two. It was for ten thousand dollars. I said, Dad, what's this phase. Well, I cashed in my Union life insurance policy and so this is really all I got to help you get through college. Here's

the money. And guys, that was a big epiphany for me because I was a Long Island Italian driving around in a Camaro, wearing gold chains, doing push ups in the parking lots of the local discos, chasing young girls around the island, going to Jones Beach, and it was right then and there I looked at that check. I said, I cannot disappoint my dad when I go to this school, Tufts University. I got to take the thing seriously. And so I did, and I graduated summa cum Laudie and

all that other stuff. But in nineteen eighty five I read an article that Time magazine was reporting that the law firm of Grasswayne and Moore was paying sixty five thousand dollars a year for attorneys first year attorneys. And I was like, oh my god, my dad's making like thirty two grand. That's double my dad's pay. I'm going to be a lawyer, okay. Not I want to be a brilliant jurisprudence. Not that there's a calling for me to practice law. All money, Okay. I had no money.

I wanted money, and so I went and I applied to law school. I applied to seven schools. I got into six. I got rejected from Yale. I went to Harvard, and so now I'm at Harvard Law School September nineteen eighty six. And I absolutely learned one thing and one thing only at law school. Don't be a lawyer. That was the first thing I learned, Okay, And so I said, okay, I got to find another job, and so I started

crossing the river to the Harvard Business School. Mike Bloomberg, obviously a graduate of Harvard Business School, lots of employment opportunities. I started interviewing for jobs in the investment banks. They're paying more than the lawyers. Seems like more fun. I get a job at Goldman. These are all superficial money related decisions. I'd like to tell you that I was much more substantial than that, but I was not. But let me tell you the learning lesson of all that

you got to do what you love. You cannot do the thing for money, or you can't do the thing for what the superficial status of it. So I got hired at Goldman Sachs August fourteenth, nineteen eighty nine. I was fired from Goldman Sachs on February first, nineteen ninety one. You can look up that day. That was a Friday. The partner took me to his apartment in Jane Street in Greenwith Village and said, you know, you really suck at this job. You're fired. Here's an eleven thousand dollars

sevens check. So I've been fired a few times, that was the first one, and I walked out of their very crestfall and I said, well, I really sucked at this job. There were layoffs going on at the time they cut forty people. I was one of them and learning a lesson for young people listening to your podcasts, be nice to the people to fire you, because they're having a bad day too. I was nice to the man. Turned out there was a job opening at Goldman. I got rehired into Goldman, and so I was fired at

Goldman February first rehired March twenty eighth. Personnel called me and said, hey, you know you're gonna be on Nathan and Elliott's podcas yes, someday, and you don't want to tell people you got fired. Okay, We're going to just mark you down as into departmental transfer And I said okay, And they said, can we get the eleven thousand dollars check back? And I said nfw. I needed the money. I had to pay off law school debt, I had to buy some suits, so I didn't give them the

money back. I got hired back, I got fired, rehired, kept the seven check. That probably hurt my career at Golman, but that was me at the time, stupid and naive. And I was now working in the capital markets, migrating into private banking, and then in nineteen ninety six. I left to start my own business, but I want to just set the scene for it. I have no connectivity to anybody. I don't know any rich people. I never hit a golf ball, never swung a tennis racket. I

know nobody. But I'm in the rich person's area at Goldman Sachs, the High net Worth area. I got to meet rich people. So how do I How am I going to meet rich people politics? I'm going to meet rich people through politics. My father was a card carrying Republican. You say, what the hell is that all about. You guys are younger than me. But there was a gentleman by the name of Joe Margiata in Nassau County, Long Island. He was a Republican. He was the chairman of the

Republican Party, and he controlled all the unions. This was an obscure fact because most counties the unions are controlled by the Democrats. But when I registered to vote, I said, Pops, am I a Republican or a Democrat? No, no, no, You're a Republican. You gotta vote Republican. You gotta help me with my wages. So I became a Republican, and so who's the Republican running for mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Okay, I wrote a two hundred and fifty dollars check to Rudolph Giuliani.

Young Republicans for Mayor Giuliani, and he won the election. He had lost the election in eighty nine. He won the ninety three election. This was like one of the luckiest things that ever happened to me because I was close to the mayor and his team. I was at Goldman. I got a parking pass.

Speaker 1

Guys.

Speaker 3

I want to make the two of you jealous for a moment. Okay. I had a parking pass. I could park on two wheels, Okay, on top of a fire hydrant anywhere in the city of New York.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean in New York.

Speaker 3

I didn't I want to park on a radio city music hall while the Christmas Show's getting out, No problem, you know, you tell me the spot you want to park the car in. I was parking it there, okay. And I was tight with the mayor and it led to a lot of people coming into my wheelhouse that I opened up accounts for at Goldman. So my odyssey into politics was based on business. Never saw myself as a political figure. Never saw myself as a political pundit. I just was trying to figure out a way to

do my job at Goldman. In nineteen ninety six, I left and started my own company. And so that is the whole backdrop. Two successful companies Republican party fundraisers. Since nineteen ninety two. I worked for George W. Bush, I've worked for Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. You pick the garden variety a Republican. And I was with Jeb Bush when Donald Trump ousted him from the campaign in twenty sixteen. And then Trump called me and said, come work for me. And then you know, you know, you know what Jeb

Bush said to me. Guys, you love this. He said, you know, if I had won the presidency, you would have never even gotten anywhere near the White House, not even at a Christmas party. I wouldn't even invited you to a Christmas party, but not Donald Trump, Okay. And so there I am on the presidential transition team. And then of course he asked me to go work for him, and then I allowed my ego and my pride to get the better of me. My wife hates Trump, probably

as much as Milania hates him. Telling you it's a very high level of hatred, okay, And she told me not to do it. But I did it because of greed, for status. I did it for pride, and I did it for ego reasons. And I think when you make decisions like that, whether you're at Bloomberg Intelligence, Skybridge Capital, if you're making personal business investment decisions off of your pride and your ego, they end up being terrible decisions. And that was one of my more terrible decisions.

Speaker 1

Well, you know, one of the questions that we want to ask you about is your love of politics and specifically what we're seeing with the US elections right now. I mean, I follow you on Twitter, sorry X, and you know, on that platform you've been an outspoken critic of the Trump campaign during this election cycle. In fact, I think just yesterday we're recording this on August thirtieth, but yesterday you said, do you think he's going to lose?

Speaker 3

You know, to lose?

Speaker 1

What I guess my question is is that, like, if he were to win, just under the scenario, if he were to win from a market perspective, what are your largest concerns?

Speaker 3

Well, first of all, if he were to win, you have to tell me where the Congress is, you know. So let's say he wins and he takes the Senate with him. Okay, and he's now got the house on the Senate. Then I'm very worried about the markets because there's a lot of things that these guys want to do. And he's disavowing Project twenty twenty. But he set it up, and so we can pretend now that he because he's a great liar. He's a very effective liar. He can

lie to your face. He can say two contradictory things at the same time. No one calls him out on it, and for some reason he gets away with it. He's against crypto, now he's for Crypto. He put eighty five people into Project twenty twenty five. Jd. Vance wrote the forward to Project twenty twenty five, the nine hundred and two page document. But it doesn't pull well. There's a lot of disastrous handmade's tale like activity and Project through twenty five. So now he disavows it. And this is

the classic thing. When Trump is disavowing you, he barely knows you. That's what he says. Okay, so you could work with him, You two guys could be in his foursome playing golf with him for forty years. The two of you dropped dead of a heart attack at the halfway house. Who was like, who the hell was Nathan and Elliott?

Speaker 1

Who?

Speaker 3

There are two other guys here I can play golf with. He drops people like their objects in his fe vision. So now Project twenty twenty five has gone by the wayside, It really hasn't. And so this would be very bad for the markets. He wants very high tariffs. He wants more control over the FED. He wants to work on strategies using this new immunity case to empower the executive branch of the government. Okay, and all of these things

are very bad for the markets. And remember everything is connected. It's just like your body. Your foot is connected to the top of your skullp our alliances internationally are connected into the US economy. You want to pull us out of NATO, You want to disavow NATO. You want to praise dictators and autocrats when remember, guys, we have five point seven billion people living under some level of authoritarianism or autocracy. This is supposed to be the United States,

a beacon of freedom and a beacon of liberty. Our parents and our grandparents came here for a reason, for this aspirational society that we all live in. And mister Trump doesn't like that. He praises autosocrats. He told John Bolton, General Kelly Jim Mattis h R McMaster, I'm pulling out of NATO if I can win a second term. This NATO thing is obsolete. It's ridiculous. You will have to explain to me because you're Bloomberg intelligence. The love affair with Vladimir Putin. I don't understand it.

Speaker 1

H R.

Speaker 3

McMaster just wrote a three inner page book. Doesn't understand it. Some people say that he's tied to them in some way through money laundering and his condominiums. I have no idea. I'm not suggesting that. I'm just saying there is something about his love affair with Vladimir Putin where Putin is invading sovereign nations and he's praising him as a genius. Putin is disavowing the security contract that he knows the West has with the Ukraine. In nineteen ninety four, the

sixth largest nuclear arsenal was the Ukrainians. Bill Clinton said, give us the nukes and we're going to give you security guarantees. Trump liquidated them those security guarantees twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one and opened the path, opened a portal for Putin to invade the country. And you could say, you know, Repubcina said, oh no, that happened before he

took Crimea. Yes, he did take Crimea. And Obama they made a decision to let him have Crimea because they said, okay, give him the access to the sea that he wants, the warm water port. But that's where it's got to stop. But Trump created the pathway for the current war. So this guy's a disaster. And I was with him. I was a garden variety Republican, moderate Republican. He won the nomination, I said, okay, I'm going to do the loyal garden variety thing. I'm going to go work for him. And

I made a serious of mistakes. I equivocated, and I moved my principles like Trump asked me to do. Yes, everybody to move the goalposts. You got to move your goalposts, move them again, move them again. I'm going to say that Mexican's are rapists and this and criminal. You got to accept it. I'm going to make fun of disabled people at rallies. You got to accept it. I'm going

to say misogynous things. I find that completely reprehensible, and I find it completely unacceptable from a American presidential candidate. And I equivocated on all that stuff in twenty sixteen, and that's my fault. I have to own it. But he will be a disaster for the markets. He'll be a disaster for our alliances, and he will do reckless things in an organized way because he won't have Mattison,

Kelly and mc master working for him. He's got a group of whack jobs from the Heritage Foundation that are going to pile into that administration.

Speaker 1

So you know, the question I have is is that you travel the globe and you talk to other Wall Street investors, c suite executives, and so forth. What do you say to them when they say that there you know, are there opportunities that could come under a Trump presidency? For example, he has said he wants to get the tax rate down to two fifteen percent from twenty one percent the corporate tax rate, You know, are there any opportunities from the market perspective if he were to win.

Speaker 3

I want to be balanced. Ok there are several. Okay, so let's talk about what they are. For whatever reason. Even though Democrats have historically done better with the economy over the last twenty five years and the stock market, Republicans are perceived to be more pro business and Donald Trump is pulling higher than Vice President Harris on the economy. So number one, when there's an era of good feeling or there's good optics, Okay, the market would probably rally

in the beginning of the Trump administration or on a victory. Well, I'm assuming we're going to talk about crypto in a second. He's pivoted effectively on crypto. I will praise him for that. That'll be good for the crypto markets. It'll be good for that industry. He'll make some regulatory changes which I think will be better for people in business. But off setting that is fed dependence. Off setting that as a

breach in our lineciences. Off setting that as an increase in tariffs, which you guys know are paid by the American people. They're not paid by the foreign entities. And these foreign entities sometimes offa scate in terms of how

they manufacture things get around the tariffs. So yes, there are some positive things, but if he's threatening the three branches of government and he's pushing the unitary executive power angle, which he is pushing, and he's going to liquidate the two other branches are weaken them, that's very, very bad for the capital markets, and it's very bad for the US society because when you study the United States, why do we have dollar supremacy, Why do we have unbelievable

capital markets, Why do we have an influx of international capital heading to our shores. There are many reasons, but one of the main reasons are we have this great decentralized government. There's no autocrat at the top of this government, a result of which everything is checked and balanced at the governmental level. And there's a very predictable judicial process in the United States where people feel that they own

the property that they actually have purchased. And so we have our property rights date back to British common law. We have nine hundred years of protecting property rights. You're not going to send your money to she or putin because arbitrarily and capriciously they could make up stuff in the law and take your property. And so you don't want somebody that believes in autocracy or autocratic behavior to take over. But yes, there are many people in the

business community. There are billionaires that I know in Silicon Valley that are supporting Donald Trump. But I push back on them, and I say that you are providing a twenty sixteen cursory analysis of what he's doing. Everybody's on the same rotisserie, Nathan and Elliott with Donald Trump. They start out hating him. Okay, he hated Elon Musk, he said. Elon Musk was on his knees in the Oval office. Elon Musk said he hated Trump. And then you go into the love affair with Trump, and then you come

out the other side hating Trump. Kelly and Conway hated him. Now she loves them. You know, maybe privately she says she hates them, but you know the whole story. Mike Pompeo hated him, goes to love. You all go through the same thing I did. I was with Bush, I said the guys in imbecoul. You should be president of the Queen's County Bullies Association. He wins. Now I got to figure out where to like him. Now I'm on the other side again. So everybody goes through this rotisserie

with Trump. He alienates everybody, and he's a dangerous guy. And you're playing with a team of one where you've got a guy that has no executive management skills running the American government. Not a great recipe.

Speaker 1

Go ahead, no, no, no please. You just mentioned Silicon Valley, and that's a good segue to a question I have about Vice President Kamala Harris. You know, we've heard some folks in Silicon Valley, you know, an area that she's historically tied to due to her home of California, that are somewhat concerned about her policies being tough on the sector,

maybe even artificial intelligence and so forth like that. Do you think those concerns are valid or do you think a potential Harris administration will be I don't want to say more moderate or you know, what do you say to folks who say that they're concerned that a Harris administration would be tough on that sector.

Speaker 3

So I've been working with them. I've been working with them on crypto policy. I've been working with them on economic policy. I don't know the answer to that at this moment, Okay, because she's got advocates out there going on business channels talking about the taxation of unrealized capital gains. And so if they're going to go in that direction, she will lose the election, and that would be a

nightmare for the United States. That would be very disqualifying to be president if she wants a tax on realizing. Not because I have some level of wealth and I've made some independent wealth in the country, it's because it would be a disaster for the capital markets in terms of the disincentivization of holding long term assets in the United States, and we have favored through tax policy, long term investing for a reason. It creates great stability and

creates great flow of capital for innovation. If you invent fracking, you got to go to Wall Street and get the money for fracking. So you're going to get the money from people that are willing to make the long term investment. But then they want to be able to hold the thing without taxation. Moreover, let me talk as a blue collar person, because ultimately that's what I am. If I make one hundred cents, I'm taxed in New York at fifty two cents. I'm not a New York City resident.

I'm a Long Island resident. So I'm now a minority partner in my own life. A dollar comes into the Scaramuchi's forty eight cents is kept by the Scaramuci's fifty two cents goes to Kathy Holkol and Joe Biden. So I'm a minority partner in my own life. But I decide now with the forty eight cents that I'm going to invest it in the capital markets, not spend it on consumption. You've already taxed me, and I've made some

very wise and good investments. The forty eight cents goes to four dollars and eighty cents, So I've taken all the risk, I've delayed all of my consumption, and now you want to penalize me by taxing the unrealized portion of those games. And so you know they're going to play the game. Well, we're only going to do it for people that are over one hundred million dollars. But taxation in this country has always had creep to it,

and this will be an international disaster for them. So if they're going in that direction, she will lose the election. He will win the election. We'll deal with the positives and negatives of him. But on the other stuff that you're talking about. I do believe that she's a moderate. I do believe that she's tacking to the middle. There's one thing I didn't like about her interview last night

is she looks tired. The job is weighing on her. Okay, when you have her at the DNC, you got the you guys are TV guys, right, you got the uplight. You know, Barbara Walter is vented the uplight. You can have a fifty five year old woman look like they have no wrinkles. Okay. The lighting in that interview was terrible. The way she was dressed is terrible. The shot was terrible. Okay, I'm just telling you she didn't look right. But there are two things about it that I did like. She's

a human being. The job should weigh on her. Okay. It doesn't weigh on Trump because he's a sociopath, so he looks the exact same every day, no matter what. But she looks like she's stressing over the job. An I prediction, move to moderation. If she does win, you're getting a garden variety Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, Barack Obama sort of style of policy from the American presidency and as long as she doesn't tilt towards taxing unrealized gains. Look,

it's one thing, guys to talk about it. Trump talks about some ridiculous stuff that will never happen. As long as that stuff's not going to happen, I think we'll be fine. But if it's gonna happen, be this. As for the country, how.

Speaker 1

Are you thinking about a Harris presidency in terms of your investments? You know, if she were to win, and let's say that if she wins, she gets at least one Chamber of Congress, you know, she has access to the regulatory agencies you mentioned. Tax twenty twenty five is going to be a tax reform year just because of the expiration of the Trump Ara tax cuts. You know, how do you how would you go into a Harris presidency thinking about sectors and you know, just market performance.

Speaker 3

Great question. So, so my recommendation to them is to follow the path of Bill Clinton. And so what Bill Clinton did, and it was very controversial at the time, is he raised taxes. He pushed through a mega tax increase thirty years ago. You guys may remember Al Gore coming down from the Naval Observatory. He was like oj

in the in the Bronco right. He was heading up to the Capitol to cast the deciding vote to put through the largest tax increase in history, and the Republicans said, ha ha ha, you push through the largest tax increase of history. He's going to lose in the nineteen ninety six election. But Clinton did something very smart. He set the taxes. He then went to the podium and said, we're done raising the taxes, and this is what the tax policy is going to look like for the next

eight years. She has to raise taxes. I don't want them to be raised. You guys probably don't want them to reraise, but you are staring down the barrel of multiple trillion dollars of deficit spending that has to be curtailed. Otherwise you could end up in a debt supercycle, which would be absolutely horrific for the markets. We are beneficiaries of a dollar denominated world, where beneficiaries of US being

the global reserve currency. But you don't want to end up in a debt supercycle that's not sustainable for the United States, and so raising the taxes and figuring it out a way to slow that down and again just to give you some political history here and you can look this up and your viewers and listeners can look up pay as you go legislation. It was invented by Dick Dorman in nineteen ninety. It was signed into law by George Herbert Walker Bush, and Bill Clinton adhered to it. Okay,

Bush also did. That's why he raised taxes during the golf War. Remember no new taxes, read my lips. He lost the election, but he adhered to pay as you go. When Bob Rubin got the job, he out debated Bob Reich, the Labor secretary. Labor Secretary wanted deficit spending. Rubin said, raised the taxes for your plan, and we were running

a surplus at the end of two thousand. So the Vice President Harris has to think like Bill Clinton, and she has to right size what we're doing from a spending and control perspective, not creating austerity, but setting ten or fifteen year guidelines to get this thing back in line. It's Banata Wax's two thousand and eight. If she does that, the market will respond very powerfully to that. She's also got to get to the podium and say I'm all

about FED independence. That's worked in the Capitol market since nineteen thirty. I would like to continue to work. You do not want Donald Trump pushing FED dependents. One thing you guys got to know, Okay, because I'm a Republican. Okay, these guys are cowards. Okay, let's just stipulate this. Okay. The Republicans are afraid of Donald Trump. They know he sucks as a person, they know he's not a principal guy. But they cower and shake. They're literally the tin man

collectively in the Wizard of Oz with the Wicked Witch. Okay, their knees knocked together on this guy, and they're very malleable, and that's very dangerous for the country. This guy's allowed to sit on his hands for three hours on January sixth while they're insurrecting and creating violence at the Capitol. They're calling for help. He doesn't help them, and then they fly down to Marrow Lago to take photo ops with them. I mean, whoever heard of something like that?

Speaker 2

I want to ask. We talked a little bit earlier about regulators and cryptos. I want to pivot to the SEC and some policy issues, just starting generally let's talk about the SEC a little. I'm curious to get your thoughts on Gary Gensler and his tenure as SEC chair. You know, they've been very aggressive in terms of rule making and enforcement actions. You know, do you think that they've been too aggressive under his leadership.

Speaker 3

Well, the short answer to that is yes. But I want to give I want to give a bagdrop here. What happened to Gensler and Warren is they got embarrassed by the Bankman Freed family. And so for your viewers and listener, Sam Bankman Freed was the crypto fraudster. He created this very large business called FTX. He was taking client funds. None of us knew this at the time, fully disclosed. I was an investor in that company, and he also owned a piece of my company because I

liked the kid and I trusted him. I got it wrong, okay, But so did Gary Gensler, and so did Elizabeth Warren, and so did twenty five other venture capitalists and sovereign wealth funds that gave them a billion dollars to build this business. But what happened against Ler and Warren is they were friends with his parents, who were law school professors at Stanford. Sam went to go see those guys

several times. He blows up. And so in order to eclipse the media drama around the mistake that they made, they don't own it like I do. They try to pretend it didn't happen. They have swung the pendulum to this wildly over aggressive position about being anti crypto, okay, and this shields them. It provides an eclipse for the stupidity of working with Sam. And that's literally what's happening. And so they are regulating through enforcement. They're going after

good actors in the industry. They're losing court cases after court cases. They approve a bitcoin futures ETF, but they reject the cash one. They've got to have Grayscale go to the court system and have the court enforced the administrative law in the United States. Gensler has been rebuked by the courts. He's been criticized by the courts. He's got people leaving because they think he's overly aggressive and

he's outside the scope of his authority. He's the Donald Trump of the sec meaning he doesn't care about the rules. He's flouting them for his own political ambition. Okay. So that's Gary Gensler and that's Elizabeth Warren. But I'm gonna say something favorable about them. And this really pisses off my friends in crypto. Okay, ready, he broke the law by not approving the spot ETF. He broke the law because you had the futures ETF. The law says you

can't be arbitrary capricious. They're identical, basically, and he accepted one and rejected the other. But that saved the industry. And I'm gonna explain to you why, because the delay of fifteen months between those two things, there's actually a little more than that. Excuse me, the delay of twenty five months, Okay, save the industry because by not doing that, he exposed all the fraud and all the leverage in the industry. Okay, So crypto people can not like to

like him or dislike him that delay. All the bottoms dropped out of these businesses, all the leverage collapse in the industry, and we have a much sturdier, safer industry from an investor perspective today than we did prior. And so people can like that or they can dislike it. But I want to be objective on your podcast. But what I don't like about him is he's not following

the rules. Okay, And here's the problem. If they don't make it bipartisan, Trump wins, Democrats will be anti crypto for fifteen years because anything Trump does, even if it makes sense, they don't like. As an example, Biden gets the job, he signs seventeen different executive orders to revoke all the policies that Trump had of the border, and we get a huge border crisis, which they now have to admit. They don't actually say they were wrong, because

no politician ever does that. But they didn't have to admit they got a border crisis. And now Vice President Harris's miss Madam border right. But all they had to do is leave Trump's policies in place. They left Trump's tariffs in place with the Chinese. You know, guys, for me, it's not about left or right, it's about right or wrong. What's right or wrong for our society? Okay? You know when you're when you're entrepreneurial owner. Mike Bloomberg was running

the city for five years. I served on his financial services advisory board, and he didn't care about politics and partisanship. He was like, Okay, what's right or wrong for the city. I would make the citizens of city healthier and safer. How am I going to increase tourism and prosperity and economic growth in the city, And so we need to return to something like that. This hard left I hate crypto just to hate cryptot and is stupid. Moreover, let's

not make it a partisan debate. I'm all for it becoming bipartisan.

Speaker 2

And Vice President Harris has dropped hints that, you know, she would be a little more favorable to the crypto industry under her presidency. I'm curious to get your thoughts. You know, what you expect her crypto policies will be. What will regulation look like under her presidency if she wins.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so I don't know the answer. Okay, I don't know the answer. I was on the crypto for Harris's zoom call. I have a relationship with Senator Jilibran and Senator Schumer, our state senators here in New York, US senators from New York. They both want legislation past this year that's bipartisan and provides greater clarity to the SEC. And they're speaking the right language. Okay, if you really want to have a great podcast. Have somebody do some

research on Elizabeth Warrenck. She has the worst legislative record in the Congress twelve years. I think she passed one bill. But she's done a beautiful job of staffing her minions all over the executive branch of the government. Her minions are at the FED, her minions are in the White House, her minions are at the SEC and Treasury, and she's done this brilliant job and they're following her marching orders.

And so if Kamala Harris is sticking with those people, she's going to hurt the industry and it's going to be very bad. The beatings will continue until morale improves. If she does make an adjustment, and guys like Brian in her senior policy are talking about making an adjustment, that'll be very good. But I don't know the answer to that yet, and I think she hasn't committed one

way or another to what direction she's going in. But I'd like to believe that Schumer and Jillibrand and people like them in the Democratic Party, the younger Democrats wrote Conna, they will win out versus Elizabeth Warren And.

Speaker 1

When you said, Brian, you're referring to Brian Diese, former National.

Speaker 3

I should have said that, Yep, exactly, he's the one that's signaling from her campaign that the policies will be more favorable to digital assets.

Speaker 2

Yeah. One thing we'd like to say here, actually Nathan says this a lot, is that crypto policy is more generational than sort of you know, partisan.

Speaker 3

It's no question. Look look at the way people voted on that bill that Biden vetoed. The younger Democrats voted for, the older Democrats voted against it.

Speaker 2

And we talked personnel a little just a few minutes ago. Who would you like to see as SEC chair under you know, if if Harris wins or if Trump wins, who would you like to see as the next SEC chair?

Speaker 3

It's a great question. I'm gonna I'm gonna answer the same person for both administrations, because I'm going to take the Vice president her word that she wants Republicans in her administration. I would put Jay Clayton back of the SEC. He's a very effective guy. I know him a very long period of time. He's a great administrator. He's also

a good ball he's a good umpire. He's called balls and strikes some things he's done that the crypto industry likes, some things he's done the crypto industry doesn't like, but is actually good for investors. And I like him as a guy, and I know he's a fair impartial guy, and I would recommend him to both candidates. I think it would be a big sign from Vice President Harris if she has some Republicans in her administration. He would be a good one because he's not the garden variety Republican.

He's a good, impartial arbiter of things like this.

Speaker 2

And what about for Treasury secretary? Who would you like to see in that role?

Speaker 3

Really good question. So Jamie Diamond has put his hand up. He's written an article about this, and I think Jamie, I'm in is seen as an incredibly competent person, and I think he's probably one of the smartest people that I've met in the world of financial services, if not the world in general. He's not a politician. I think that's a strike against him, by the way, because when you're running a big company, it's hard to make a transition into being a political leader. Mike Bloomberg did a

great job of that. I don't know if Jamie could do a great job of that or not, but assuming he could, he would be my pick for both sides. Okay, I think he would be acceptable to both sides. I think he would get approval quickly. If Harris vice President, Harris doesn't want to go with him, I'd recommend somebody like Larry Fink. Now, some of the hard left would say, oh no, that's Wall Street people again, we need a

hard lefty if she goes with Elizabeth Warren. You know, hopefully you guys have room in your basement, and one of the two of you'll have room in your base where I can live with my family for four years.

Speaker 2

As much as I'd love to have you guys over, I don't think we agree in my basement.

Speaker 3

All right, Well, taking that far, I think that is a shot. Okay, I heard Nathan. I'm relying on you now because Elliott just hurt my finger to me and tell me you have room in your basement. Ok I'm going to have to use it, but just lie to me make me feel better. After that, I'll talk about it.

Speaker 2

I'll put my kids in the basement and you can take their rooms.

Speaker 3

All right. See that's now he's now he's being more diplomatic. I live in Rgina.

Speaker 1

I live in Virginia. You'll have to get used to the hotter summers. But you know, one last question we have before we move on to our fun question, and it really just because I know when you do the Salt conferences, I see you doing interviews from the UAE, from Asia, from Europe. I mean, I'd hate to know what your travel schedule likes, because it looks like you're

always on the road. So I want to ask you, where do you think the US China relationship will go over the next few years under a Harris Trump presidency or a Trump presidency. Is this something that should be keeping investors up at night thinking about I.

Speaker 3

Think it keeps investors up at night, but I think that it's become unnecessarily adversarial, and I think we're on the right path paths President she has decided that he wants to be a little more controlling of that government, a little bit more controlling of that economy, and that economy is paying the price. There's been a diminution in outside capital. You know this because you guys are Bloomberg Intelligence. There's a real estate crisis going on in the economy,

there's a banking crisis there. They're doing the best they can to manage it under the constraints of a very centralized authority coming from the government. So the question will be, is that the path that China's going to take forever. I believe it is not the path that China will take forever. I think these things break towards freedom, particularly places like China, where they've got a ton of well

educated people. They've had a very big movement from an agrarian society to an urban society, which has increased disposable living standards, made people generally wealthy. I believe that we need to be patient with them, and we need to work alongside of them despite whatever the political rhetoric is.

As business leaders and thought leaders, we need to stay in the game with China, and we need to make sure that whatever happens with China, the peaceful rise of China is something that the United States and the West can handle. I may not necessarily be in favor of every aspect of their system. They're certainly not in favor of some of the aspects of our system. But there was a book written about ten years ago that I'd

recommend to both the it's still very relevant today. It was written by the Dean of the Kennedy School of Government, Graham Allison, and it's called Destined for War, and this is about the rising superpowers threatening the existing power structures. And so there's something called the Thudicity's Trap where the Spartans were threatened by Athens and so they hit them and it touched off a war that lasted way longer.

The Pnesian War lasted way longer than either side wanted, and it damaged both city states, and Graham Allison's point is we don't want that to happen. There are sixteen episodic moments from ancient Greece to today where rising superpowers threatened existing power structures. On four of those occasions, so there's only four for sixteen where we've had some peace. And one of the most specific ones, specific ones is the US rising at a time when the UK was declining.

But that was okay for us. We had more or less the same legal structure, more or less the same tribe, more or less the same religion. This is very very different. This is very precarious, and we need to manage it with great common sense and great long term judgment, not overreact to whatever problems China has right now or they're inward move. And I would just point out to you guys, in April of twenty seventeen, when President She ended up at mar A Lago to visit then President Trump, he

had a copy of this book in his hand. He was going to present it a Trump, But of course Trump doesn't read, so they would have had would have fallen on deaf ears. But I saw him with the book in his hand, and I went out and bought the book and read it. I think it's very relevant today, even though it's ten years later. We have to manage

this relationship. We have to be there or we have to be present with them, and we have to we have to figure out a way to cohabitate on Earth, the Chinese and the Americans without being overly aversario competitive, no problem. We don't want anything connectic with the Chinese.

Speaker 2

That's a fascinating the anecdote about the book. So we're running up on our time limit here, so we're gonna end our policy focus questions, and we're going to end this episode with one question that we ask all of our guests at the end of each episode and that is, if you were stranded on a desert island, what are three pieces of music that you would want to have

with you? And it can be you know, it can be an album or a soundtrack or a song or you know, if you want it to even be the entire catalog of one artist.

Speaker 3

It can only be one. Though I can't have a couple. You can have three three, three, Okay, So I want the whole catalog of Billy Joel.

Speaker 2

I was gonna say, it's a long island guy. You got to go to a long island guy.

Speaker 3

The long Island anthem is down Easter Alexa. Okay, I've got I've got cousins of mine that are clamors. Other guys are sliceing Deli meat when I go for Christmas. Everybody in my family is named Anthony, because that's how the Dallians do it. It's my great grandpa.

Speaker 2

You know.

Speaker 3

There's Anthony Pizzeria, Anthony Deli, Anthony Klamer. I'm just Anthony Hedge fund at the table.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 3

No one gives a shit that I've made a dollar or not, right, And so that's Billy Joel. The second thing is Led Zeppelin. I think I'm older than you two, but led Zeppelin Robert Plant to me, I think he's the best rock and roll singer every timeless, and Zeppelin to me, I think will be long remembered. And then the third thing, which is a little sacriligious here on Long Island, but it's somebody that I've gotten to know

and I genuinely respect, is Bruce Springsteen. So there's always a great rivalry between the Long Islanders and Billy Joel and the New Jerseys with Springsteen. But Springsteen writes about the working class struggle. Uh, and Billy Billy Joel does as well. But Springsteen is capturing something about America that I think I would want with me on that desert island.

Speaker 2

I mean, those are three great choices. I live in New Jersey, so obviously you know Springsteen.

Speaker 3

He threw me out of the house, Nathan, Okay, you know, and he's got me living like Dinot.

Speaker 2

I've got you back in with these musical choices coming back into the house.

Speaker 1

Elliott has a Spotify account. He puts all these on her soil joined like you know. Uh, Mick mulvaney was Petchup Boys and former Lambrige secretary Eugene Schlee I think was the clash, So we'll put that on the opera.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 3

See see those are good guys, both of those good guys whose arc of their professorinal career and the arc of their judgment has been gravitationally pulled by Donald Trump. You see, you see see this is said. And by the way, myself included, I've made a lot of mistakes that I've regretted in my career because you're there's an expression in it, you know, an Italian the fish thinks them the head down. When you have a malevolent, morally beref leader, you have a tendency to move towards him,

not away from him. You know, you need leadership in the country that's guided with good character and good principles to restore what we know about the country, which is the greatness of this country. And so we're in a little bit of an interregment period now and we'll get through it. But those are two great guys. But I would love to debate both of them on trump Ism, because this is a failed strategy for America. Anytime the America is talking in the victimhood America is talking about

I mean, Trump trashes the country. He talks about the country like it's a failed state, that that's besmirching my dad, my grandparents. I don't like it. Okay. We got to talk about the country very differently, and we got to think about the country way long term as it relates to entitlement, deficit spending, interest payments, et cetera, not the nonsense that we're doing right now.

Speaker 2

Maybe that'll be another episode of votes and Verdicts. We could have you and maybe some of those guys too.

Speaker 3

Oh no, I love those guys, you know, Melvany, anytime you know school, I know.

Speaker 2

I'm serious. I think it'd be a great conversation.

Speaker 3

Lee, I know less well, okay, and I like him. Okay, he was. He was very good on the Department of Labor stuff in the fiduciary rule. Obviously, his father is a celebrated hero in our community. You know, I can tell you exactly where I was in June of nineteen eighty six when he was named to the Supreme Court. Okay, I was with my mother. She was cooking a lot of meatballs. Okay. The Italians thought that that was the

greatest thing that ever happened in the community. And I when I met with scale I said, why are all these Italian mothers, why do they want their kids to be judges? And Scaleia looked at me. So you gotta understand some an When you're a judge, you have a lifetime appointment. So your mother thinks that you're not corruptible. She doesn't think you're in the mob, because if you go from mayor, she thinks that the mayors are all corrupted,

but the judges are not corruptible. It was a great answer from Anthony and Scalia.

Speaker 1

Well, Anthony, thank you very much for attending. We're going to wrap up our episode of Utes and Verdicts there. We're extremely grateful to you for appearing on this episode and for our listeners.

Speaker 2

As you're a.

Speaker 1

Comminder, you can read all of our Bloomberg intelligence research on the Bloomberg terminal liked I Go, Thank you again and everywhereful

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