Joined the conversation conversation you with Cape Talk. It's tenminous to ten o'clock. Doctor Dell McKinley, political analyst, joins us. We're going to find out how the gn you is holding up over the next couple of minutes. Welcome to you, doctor McKinley.
Great have you, Thanks Clarence, and thanks to your listeners. Always a pleasure.
Let's just understand, is it a government of National Unity or is it a grand coalition?
It's a coalition government. I think we've been playing with semantics. I mean the Government of National Unity tag was given by the A and C because it wanted to make it more than it was. But yeah, it's a coalition arrangement, and it's a very fractious coalition arrangement. So I think still as South African's as I said and others, we haven't quite gotten used to that terminology and we haven't quite gotten used to the politics it goes with such
a coalition. So we tend to respond to every little hiccup, for every little bump in the road and thinking it's going to end, when in fact, in some ways that's a natural progression of this kind of coalition.
Then our permutations are limits it then, are they not? It could either be a grand coalition or a minority coalition.
Well, listen, I mean right now we have a grant it's majority. If you take the DA in the A and C they've got over seventy percent. Yes, So you've got other two other options that the ANC can take. And this is what they're obviously on the table at
the moment in their NEC discussions. Is they could go with a sort of what sort of a transactional relationship you could call it, with the EFF, where essentially the EFF comes on board on particular kinds of things and helps them pass legislation, but it's not a formal coalition. They could enter into a minority coalition, which of course is just to run it and then try to get as many people on their side for particular pieces of legislation.
Or they could call new elections, So we have three or four different scenarios, or obviously continue as the press and arrangement is.
We've seen some pretty significant fractions. I have some really deep divisions, but we can also say we've seen some resilience in the that they've been togeven.
Yeah, listen, I think and the reason. You can call it resilience, but I think it's practicality basically, if you look at the scenario besides all you know, if you take away all the noise and a lot of the posturing and sort of performances in Parliament, the basic bottom line is the ANC and the DA need each other and one without the other right now. The other options are probably worse than the ones they've got right now.
And I think the dominant factions within each of the parties and there are differences obviously, I think they understand this and realize that. That's why when you have all this, you know, are we going to break it up? Is it going to last till next week? You'll see them stepping back and they'll come with some other kind of plan. How far that can go along given they have to hold off the other factions which want to break or
who which want a different kind of outcome. That I think is where we pay more attention is to internal party politics.
Yeah, so then we're dealing with vested interest then, and how are they going to play out in terms of relationships within this grand coalition? So we know the A ANDC wants to hold onto power. It's not going to give it up at all. It is also the biggest party within this coalition, the DA. The DA is smelling power, familiarizing itself with power. Do you think it's fortunes would be better realized outside of the Grand Coalition that inside.
No, I don't on a tactical basis. You could argue in some ways, on a strategic longer term it might. But in the short term, when we have local government elections coming up next year, I don't think it would serve the DA very well. If they were to pull out right now, I think they would be seen as spoilers. I think many of those that sort of sit on the fence right now and would be thinking of possibly
voting for the DA. Let's say in my home province Koteng and Joe, where Helen Zilla wants to become the mayor. You know, these kinds of things that would sort of royal the terrain a bit. And I think right now, if the DA can be seen as a responsible sort
of you know, okay, yes, we're gritting our teeth. We don't like these kinds of things, but we're doing it in the interests of the country, so forth and so on, and be the responsible one and not be seen to be always just complaining and always sort of throwing their toys out of the cot when things don't go their way.
Then I think that many other voters would then pay attention to what they're the other side of what they're saying they do, which is governance, which is delivery, which is the things that they want people to pay attention to. So I think tactically would make sense for the DA to remain.
Others would argue that they perceive their fortunes, yeah, could be better realized out aside with unencumbent commentary on government. I'm inclined to believe that too. But let's go to the National dialogue seven hundred million National dialogue mooted by the ANC, objected to by the Democratic Alliance. Is this a make or break disagreement.
No, not at all. The national dialogues or sort of side shows. I mean, we've had several national dialogues in the last twenty to thirty years. None of them have really produced much of anything. They produced very big reports and lots of big bills, but in terms of action, not a great deal. I mean, look, it is an important space for people to be heard and I don't think the DA's sort of absence is going to help
them a great deal. I mean, what does it achieve really if you step outside the room on this one, Because the national dialogues are going to involve a range of different voices, so might as well you might be heard as well. But I don't think politically it's that central. I don't think it's a make or break thing. I think where the real issues are going to come is
in departmental budget voting. So if you notice up coming up in the next few weeks, a lot of the budgets are going to be put forward in Parliament and the DA is basic he said, no, we're not going to vote for budgets where the ministers are compromised or under allegations of corruption. I think this could be a much more politically fractious kind of situation than the National Dialogue.
A very compelling argument has been made that we don't need a national Dialogue, we need the what's it? The Plan? The Development Plan the NDP to be implemented because proactively it talks to solutions.
Look, I think most people would say the National Dialogue is more of a top shop.
It is.
It doesn't mean that talking is a bad thing. It doesn't mean the dialogue is a bad thing. Sometimes it's good to have those spaces. I think the feist tag obviously makes us squeeze because of what's going on, But in the context of plans, yes, I think everybody would be in agreement that where we are lacking, not just in terms of past administrations, but this G and u
is action is putting things on the ground. There have been some elements of a progress, you know, the electricity situation, others, but sliding back. And then I go back to the local government and we're coming up next year. Local governments where it's at. It's where people feel it the most in communities, at locals.
But it's the party in the penned in twenty twelve. It is there, the plan for local government, the plan for parisdats, the plan for state owned enterprises, the plan for professionalizing the civil service. It's all there.
Yeah, We've got about seven plans Clarence that we come back from about nineteen ninety and each one of them succeeded the other, and they've been I think the problem is is that the plans are so grand that that they oftentimes don't get implemented. We need very specific plans for very specific areas of work, and people put into capacity and teams made, task teams made. You saw what
happened with SARS. Where SARS basically there was a concentrated focus on recapturing the capturers, so to speak, and putting things correct. It's getting there and they've done a fairly job, and that's what we need to replicate in the context of I think many of the other departments. Is a recapacitation or reprioritization, but done so much more focused as opposed to some grand plan where everything gets lost in the detail.
We got to wrap it there. We appreciate your time, doctor Delle McKinley, political analyst, just getting an idea of where the GNU is headed up or rather holding up. It is two minutes from ten o'clock. He's coming your way at the top of the hour.