I can't believe I'm getting to say this, center, but we are right there, one day before the presidential election. Welcome to Verdict with Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you. It seems like we've been talking about this forever, and yet we are finally at the doorstep of finding out who's going to be the next president of the United States of America.
Well, as they say, is at a monster truck rally tomorrow. Tomorrow, Tomorrow, Dear God, this will all be over. This long and terminable, never ending election will be over, God willing tomorrow. And what we're going to talk about today the day before election day, is two things. Number one, the stakes, what happens if Trump wins, what happens of Kamala wins. And number two, the lay of the land, where the polls are, what to expect, what tomorrow is going to look like.
Both of those we're going to break down for you because everyone is waiting with baited breath to see what happens.
We're also going to look at what the first one hundred days are going to look like if there is a Trump administration or a Harris administration, and that will be the closing arguments. For so many of your family members. Let me tell you real quick though, about something really important, and it involves your family. Being able to protect and defend yourself with a firearm and being able to protect
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Right now, Senator, you've been all over You've been out on the road. I've been out on the road as well. I've been doing a lot of TV and radio over the last couple weeks. And if there's anything that people ask me, if they ask me one today at a thousand times a day, it's this question, what do you think our chances are? How is it looking? Is there really a chance Kamala Harris could beat Donald Trump? I'm going to ask you the question I've been getting every Day Times one thousand.
Your thoughts on that to start with.
Well, look on the last question. Yes, Unfortunately, there is a chance that Kamala wins. You know, I will say a month ago, I would have put the odds of the presidential at fifty to fifty. I think the last two weeks have been really good. I think the momentum is with Trump. I think he's been doing a lot of things right. We talked about in previous podcasts, how he's been joyful, how he's been having fun, things like going to McDonald's, things like driving the garbage truck. He
has been behaving like a winning campaign. I think people can pick up on that. I also think the Kamala campaign is panicking. I think they feel like it's slipping away from them. If I if I were laying odds right now, I would put it at sixty forty that
Trump wins. Now sixty forty. That actually scares the hell out of me, because what I'm saying is, I think there's a forty percent chance that we wake up on Wednesday, or maybe a month from Wednesday, if the knuckleheads in Philadelphia and Detroit and Milwaukee are still counting votes for a month but whenever this is resolved, I think there's a forty percent chance Kamala Harris's president. That is terrifying because the stakes for this country. I've never seen an
election remotely this close. And so look, you were talking about first one hundred days. Let's talk for a minute.
If Trump wins.
If Trump wins, which you and I both hope and pray, is what happens, We're going to see a lot of things happen starting on January twentieth. Number one, on the border, we will secure the border. And understand, this is not going to take a year. I don't even believe it's going to take six months. This will happen in January and February of next year. Why because the single most important determinant of illegal immigration is one single question. It's
a policy question. What happens when an illegal immigrant is apprehended? And if the answer is they're put on a plane and send home, the number's plummet. Understand, almost everyone that comes to this country carries a cell phone with them, So if they get here and suddenly they're flying back, they pick up the phone and call their friends and family and say, hey, don't come. They're not letting you stay.
On the other hand, if when they get here they do what happens under Joe Biden Kamala Harris, which is they let him go and they fly them to every city in America. Well, they've still got that cell phone. They call it, call home and tell their friends and family, Hey, come on to America. Once you get here, you get to stay. Trump will end catch and release on January twentieth, and we will see the numbers plummet. That's number one,
by the way. On the flip side, Kamala, we've seen a decrease in the legal immigration over the last couple of months because frankly, Kamala and Biden that they're really cynical. They think the voters are stupid, that they know the press will dutifully report, Oh, the numbers are down, it's all solved. If Kamala wins, God help us, the numbers will skyrocket. We have seen eleven and a half million
people in the last four years. If Kamala is president for another four years, eleven and a half will become twenty five or thirty million. That is their objective, to invade this country with what they see as future Democrat voters and we will see it. It will only get worse. So just on immigration, the delta is massive.
And not only that, but I also think we need to remind people that this administration made a deal with Mexico for them to help them get the numbers to go down temporarily heading up until election day, and that will all disappear if she wins.
Correct.
Absolutely no, No, the invasion continues full force, and I don't think we wait till January. The invasion starts going in mid November.
Again.
If Kamala wins, then they're like, all right, no need to pretend anymore. Let's go, let's bring in. We brought it in eleven and a half. I bet you we can do much.
More than that.
I mean, it will only escalate. Remember the government of Mexico announced just a few months ago that they were paying for buses to take illegal immigrants from Mexico's southern border all the way through Mexico and drop them off at their northern border. At our southern border. By the way, the government of Mexico is putting soldiers at or armed police officers on those buses to take them up there.
They're doing it because Kamala Harria took the CVP one app which enables an illegal immigrant to apply to come into this country illegally, and they expanded it to now it applies to all of Mexico. So this is Kamala is trying to make the invasion of this country more rapid and more efficient, and Mexico will be eagerly complicit if God forbid she's president.
Let me ask you another question before we get into the Senate races and the control of the Senate in the House, and also some of the other big issues that I think people are going to think about on election day, which include the economy. But the second most question I'm getting the most and I want to know if you're getting this as well, is will this election be fair? And how do we not know who the
winner is on election night? I think most people believe we won't know an election night who's going to win between Trump and Harris, just because that seems to be this insane trend that in twenty twenty four we can't count votes. What are the odds we don't know who the president is on election night?
Look, I think they're quite high because Democrats are both incompetent and they are engaged in malfeasans. Listen Texas. Texas is the second largest state in the country. It is smaller only than California. It's bigger than New York, it's bigger than Florida. We will be done on election night on Tuesday night. I'm going to predict by midnight, we will know the result in the presidential race, will know the result in my race, in the Senate race, we
will know the result in the congressional races. There might be an individual state Rep race where it is within a few hundred votes where there has to be a recount. That sometimes happens on an individual district. But we will have the results in almost every race, if not every single race, by the end of election night in Texas. Now and if in Texas we can counter damn voats. Why can't they do that in Philadelphia? Why can't they do that in Detroit? Why can't they do that in Milwaukee?
Why can't they do that in Atlanta? Why can't they do that in blue cities in swing states? And the answer, sadly is that I think the Democrats running them they wanted to lay it. And will there be voter fraud election day? Yes, and there has been voter fraud in every election as long as there have been elections. I've joked, if you went back to the cavemen when they were electing the Grand Puba, somebody stuffed the ballot box. That is human nature. Now there are two things that are
good news. Number One, in red states, in states like Texas, like Florida, like Georgia, we have seen those states pass serious voter integrity laws, so it is much harder to cheat in red states. It's not impossible, but it's harder. We have things like photo id laws, we have things like banning ballad harvesting that make it significantly more difficult to cheat. In blue states or purple states, they have
not passed election integrity laws. And the reason they haven't is Democrats have decided voter fraud is good for them. And by the way, this is new a decade ago. Like when I first got to the Senate twelve years ago, you had Democrats who were willing to be reasonable on enhancing election integrity. This has happened in the last few years that Democrats as a party have all decided we like voter fraud. The more of it, the better, And it is a very cynical decision. I think they've decided
voter fraud is good for them politically. So Blue states have done nothing zero to enhance election integrity. We talked about in the last podcast how in Michigan a Chinese
national voted illegally in the presidential election. The Chinese national came in and used his student ID, and the idiot Democrats in Michigan have decided a student ID is acceptable to vote, even though you don't have to be America con citizen to get a student I d so in Blue states and purple states, there will be fraud, and there will be more fraud than there is in red states. Here's the second level of good news. Historically, voter fraud
only matters at the margin. They say, it only matters when it's close. What that means is we've got to win by a big enough margin they can't steal it. As Trump puts it, we need to win too big to rig. And so I will say, especially in these battleground states, we need to show up. If it's a half point or a point margin, we could be in trouble. If we win by five points, we'll be fined. And so we just need to make sure people turn out in big enough numbers that the election cannot be stolen.
You talk about turnout, and this comes back to the issues. I still think this election is economy first nationwide and then safety, and that obviously encompasses the border. What are your thoughts on what is driving people of the polls, because the early voting numbers nationwide are very big compared to what we've seen the past.
Yeah, if you look at the state of Texas, we are projecting north of seventy percent, maybe north of seventy five percent of the votes have already been cast, have been cast in early votes. That's not true in every state, but we're seeing a lot of early votes being cast all across the country. Listen, it's very state by state.
Almost every public opinion poll that has done, the top two issues are either illegal immigration slash border security or economy slash inflation, and they both tend to be at about thirty percent and one or the others one and the others two, and they go back and forth. Typically the thirty issue is crime and that tends to be around nine or ten percent, although you could say crime
and illegal immigration they're certainly intertwined. So there's no doubt those are the two monster issues on the board, or voters that are voting on illegal immigration or overwhelmingly voting for Donald Trump or overwhelmingly voting for Republicans. On the economy, it's a little bit more mixed. But inflation is a real problem. But it's hurting people. And let's go back to the first one hundred days. If Trump wins, we will see the regulatory assault that has been launched over
the last four years on oil, gas and immediately. And you might think, all right, if you're in Texas, you get oil and gas are intertwined with jobs. But if you're in another state you may say, okay, what do I care about energy? You need to understand assaulting American energy is a massive driver of inflation because energy costs are inputs to everything. Let's take food. You might think, well,
what does energy have to do with food. Well, for one thing, the fertilizers that farmers use have natural gas as a major input in them, and it drives up the cost of fertile Not only that every tractor, every bit of farm equipment uses diesel. Not only that, once you have reaped your crops, you take trucks to take them to the warehouse, taken to the grocery store, and so the cost of energy kicks in at every single
level and drives it up. We will see again on January twentieth, I believe of next year, Trump will end that assault on energy. That is going to result in significantly increasing American oil production, natural gas production, that is going to result in driving down costs. That will mean not only costs that you pay at the gas pump, not only costs that you pay for paying your heating bill, but also cost that you pay in everything else. And
I think we will see beyond that. We will see across the board an effort to repeal job killing regulations, and that, in turn, I believe will stimulate economic growth, which again brings inflation down as you get both moving forward. So on the economy, I think there's a big upside of Trump wins. If Kamala wins, we're gonna see more of the same. We're going to see the assault on American energy will only get worse. And listen, there's a
big difference between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Joe Biden's a puppet. He is mentally, he's not there any more. I think he is having his strings pulled by others. Kamala is a true believer. I think every bad policy of Joe Biden gets worse under Kamala.
Harris, no doubt, And I think that's the reason why we see these massive early voting numbers that obviously is encouraging. Let me tell you this election, I've been burning the candle at both ends, and I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm ready for this election to be over. But each and every day I get up inspired and ready to fight for this country. I start my show at seven AM, and I can tell you it has to start with
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off your first order. So now let's get back to the first hundred days, and this really comes down to I call it the closing arguments. There are a lot of people listening right now. They may have family members, they may have friends that are still on the fence deciding if they're going to vote or not an election day, take the time to do it, and I think we got to arm them with the important data of comparing contrasts.
So what are some of the other things that are going to look very different in the first hundred days from a Harris campaign if she wins to a Trump administration.
If he wins, well, as I said, on the border, Trump will secure the border. Kam l will open the borders even more. On energy, Trump will end the war on energy, which were reduced in inflation. Kamala will only increase the war and energy, which will increase inflation. On taxes, now, this question depends on what happens in the House and Senate.
If Kamala wins and Republicans win the Senate, and I think there is a good chance right now Republicans win the Senate, although we need to take that deadly seriously because if the Democrats get the White House, the House, and the Senate, the country I think could be irreparably damaged. But if we end up with Kamala and the White House and a Republican Senate. It means we will not see a massive tax increase.
That's good.
But if Trump wins and we have a Republican Senate in the House, we will see the twenty seventeen tax cuts extended. Most of the twenty seventeen tax cuts expire next year. Trump has said he wants to extend them. Kamalas said she wants to let them expire. The Wall Street Journal calls this a six trillion dollar election. That's the delta of how much your taxes are going up versus how much they're going going down or staying down,
depending on if the Democrats are Republicans win. If Trump wins, for example, and we have a Republican House and Senate, I think we'll see things like his proposal for no tax on tips. I think we'll pass that. As you know, I am the author of the no tax on tips legislation in the Senate. My legislation already has bipilate partisan support. I think will pass it into law. He is also advocating no tax on Social Security benefits. That's something I very much agree with. I think we'll get that done.
That will impact you want to talk about seniors, Seniors struggling with inflation. No tax on social security benefits will be a real benefit to seniors quickly. So on taxes, there's a big, big delta. But let's also touch on foreign policy. If Trump wins, I think both of the wars that are ongoing right now end next year. I think the war on Ukraine ends, the war in Ukraine ends, and I think Trump forces a negotiated settlement. I think
Russia will lose. It will not be a victory for Utin, but Trump will also say We're not gonna write checks indefinitely, end this and be done, and I think we'll get it resolved. I think Putin is scared of Trump. Putin is not scared of Kamala Harris, so I think that will resolve. And on Israel, I think the war in Israel resolves as well, and I think it resolves with Israel defeating Hamas. What Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have
done is undermine Israel consistently. That has extended the war, that is encouraged Hamas, that is encouraged Hesbela, that has encouraged Iran. If Trump wins, we see the oil sanctions on Iran being enforced again, and their money suddenly plummets. The money going to Hamas and Hesbela plummets. And I actually think America standing strongly with Israel accelerates the resolution of this war. So the upside on foreign policy is very high. But if Kamala wins, I think we would
see a Kamala Harris administration undermine Israel even more. I think it extends the war. I think it encourages Hamas, it encourages Has, I think it encourages Iran. You see Kamala continuing to flow billions of dollars to Iran. You know it was amazing. Man. When Kamala Harris did the sixty Minutes interview, they asked her what's the biggest threat
to American She said Iran? And apparently sixty Minutes doesn't actually employ real journalists because they didn't ask the obvious follow up, Well, wait, if Iran is the biggest threat to America right now in your judgment, why did you flow a hundred billion dollars to Iran? Why are you funding the people who want to murder us? They didn't ask her that, and she has no answer to that
she can't give an answer to that. But if she wins, the hundred billion dollars that has gone to Iran becomes two hundred billion or more, and that means Amas gets more money, HESBLA gets more money, More Israelis die, more Jews die, more Americans die, more of our allies die, the world gets more dangerous. So I will say on foreign policy, the consequences are massive and really frightening.
You put this together, I called the trifecta.
You've got a security issue at home with an open border the crime, you've got inflation the economy, and you have a foreign policy. And yet we're still having this real conversation center about there's a real chance Harris could win this thing. There is part of me that just steps back and goes, how is that even possible? And then I answer the question, it's because we become so tribal in this country, right. I mean, let's be honest.
I think forty eight forty and a half percent are hardcore Democrats, forty eight percent are hardcore Republicans are fighting over two or three percent in the middle, and so it doesn't matter who the Democrats run.
I think Harris his proof of that right.
She was a terrible VP candidate, our presidential candidate. The first time around, she had one of the lowest approval ratings in the history of a VP. And yet now all of a sudden it was a coronation no one voted for. Let's not forget that. You have the corruption of the Biden family that should have been hangoverhead. Completely disconnect there because we are so divided as a country, and that concerns me as well.
Yeah, look, I don't think we are that divided. I don't think it's forty eight forty eight in terms of tribalism. I think there are a number of people who are not very engaged in politics and who the media is deliberately deceiving, and we need to have people understand the stakes of it. I don't think they're I don't think forty eight percent of the country are hardcore Democrats. In fact, I think this country is solidly center right. But we
need to move them, we need to persuade them. And it's where the media being corrupt is such a problem. And so listen on the merits. We ought to be winning sixty five thirty five everywhere, but we're not. So let's break it down. Let's run through the swing states. So let's start with Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the most important swing state. It's the largest swing state. If you look at right now the real clear politics average, Trump is winning,
but barely. The average right now is Trump at forty eight point three and Kamala Harris at forty eight point zero. So Trump is up point zero three. And to give you a CeNSE, at this point two days to the election, Biden was up four point three and Clinton was up two point eight. And by the way, Clinton was up two point eight and Trump one in twenty sixteen. Now, if you look at the most recent polls, let me just go through the most recent ones. The most recent
one was New York Times Sienna. That was a tie forty eight to forty eight. The one before that was Trump was plus one. The one before that was Trump plus two. The one before that was Trump plus one. The one before that was Harris plus two. The one before that was a tie. The one before that was Harris plus two. The one before that was Harris plus one. The one before that was Trump plus two. So the long and short of it is, Pennsylvania is really damn close,
all right, let's go through the other swing states. Arizona, Arizona. I feel better about I think Trump is gonna win Arizona. The current average is Trump plus two point six. Here are the last several poles. The most recent Trump plus three before that, Trump plus four before that, Trump plus six before that, Trump plus one before that, Trump plus two before that, Trump plus eight before that, Trump plus two before that, a tie before that, Harris plus one.
So it's been pretty consistent for a while that Trump's gotta lead. I think we win Arizona. How about Nevada, Nevada, Trump's gotta lead, but it's closer. The average in Nevada is Trump plus one. What are the most recent polls, and this is a lot more spotty. The most recent poll is Harris plus three before that, Trump plus six before that, Harris plus one before that, Trump plus six before that, Harris plus one before that, Trump plus two before that, a tie. So Nevada, it depends on the turnout.
It's bumpy. I mean, we are leading in Nevada right now, but narrowly.
All right.
How about Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a really really important swing state. After Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are the two most important swing states. The current Real Clear Politics average Harris is up zero point three percent. Here are the most recent polls. Harris plus two before that, Trump plus one before that, Harris plus one before that, Trump plus one before that, Harris plus two before that, Trump plus three before that, a tie before that.
A tie.
So Wisconsin's another one that is raizor thin. How about Michigan. Michigan, the average right now is Harris plus zero point nine. Here are the most recent polls. The most recent is a tie before that, Trump plus one before that, a tie before that, Harris plus two before that, Trump plus two before that, Harris plus one, then Harris plus three, then Harris plus one, then a tie. Michigan is close, but accord to the public polling, the Democrats have a
slight advantage. Let's take North Carolina. North Carolina. I think we're gonna win North Carolina. The current average is Trump plus one point five. Here are the most recent polls. There was one that just came out New York Times Siena that showed Harris plus two, but that's an outlier. Here are all the previous polls. Trump plus two, Trump plus four, Trump plus three, Trump plus two, Trump plus three, Trump plus one, Harris plus one tie. I think we'll
end up winning North Carolina. But an open question in North Carolina is what is the impact of the hurricane And many of the areas hit are rider parts of the state. Does that depress turnout? I certainly hope not, but that is an X factor that no one has a firm answer. All right, final swing states, talk about Georgia. I think we'll win Georgia as well. The current average is Trump plus one point nine. Here are the most recent polls. The New York Times SANA poll showed Harris
plus one, but again that was an outlier. Here are the previous polls before that. Trump plus one, Trump plus two, Trump plus five, Trump plus one, Trump plus two, Trump plus two tie, Trump plus one, Trump plus six. At the end of the day, I think we win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, Michigan. In Wisconsin, Damned if I know Trump wins those he wins. But if we don't, we could be looking at President Kamala Harris.
And that is the part that is obviously very scary. I want to ask you a final overview. What is the closing argument? What is your challenge to the listeners of Verdict, what is it that they really need to be focused on the last twenty four hours and so the final show before election day, And before I get your answer on that, I want to tell you about
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Patriotmobile dot com slash verdict or nine seven to two Patriot and get your free moonth of service today. Final question center closing argument to the audience, a verdict. That's our last show before election day. What is your challenge to them?
Listen?
The question and every presidential election is are you better off now than you were four years ago? On the merits, it's not even close. You look at the economy. The economy is a trainck. Inflation's a train wreck. The border is worse than a train wreck. National security what both public safety? We are seeing violent criminal, illegalaliens being released every day. They are murdering Americans, they are raping women, they are raping and murdering children. Our safety is seriously compromised.
We've seen the greatest I think the greatest risk of a terrorist attack we've ever seen from our open border inviting terrorists in this country, and the world's on fire. Think back under Donald Trump, and we had Donald Trump as president of Republican Senate, a Republican House. We had peace, we had prosperity, We had booming economic growth. People's lives were better. Millions of people were coming off food stamps, millions of people were moving into prosperity, Wages were going up.
Safety and security was enhanced, the border was the safest it had been in forty five years. Those are the basic facts. That's the difference. And so I want to say, listen the verdict listeners. I'm going to say a little bit selfishly, I think we have the smartest, best informed, most patriotic, most amazing listeners in the planet. You guys are part of this discussion. Listen, Ben and I. All right, it is right now Sunday night. It is one oh four am, so it actually is Monday morning.
It is four am.
It is one o four am. I've spent the entire day on the campaign trail. I am bleary eyed and exhausted, and I'm going to spend all day tomorrow on the campaign trail. But Ben and I do this, and Ben's got to get up at like, I don't know, two thirty of the morning or something to do with his morning show. It's a little bit crazy. I don't know, actually think Ben sleeps. But we do this for a reason, which is that our listeners want to know the truth, want
to know what's happening, want to be informed. One understand, how do we save America? How do we defend the constitution, how do we defend freedom. How do we fight to this country? I believe with all my heart is the greatest country in the history of the world, and I think our country is hanging by a thread. And so I want to say, look, I have every confidence that every Verdict listener has already voted early or is going
to vote on Tuesday. So I'm not even going to insult you by telling you to vote, because if you're listening to Verdict, if you're the listener, you're going to vote. You love America and you're going to vote no matter what. So I want to encourage you. Of course you're going to do that, but get others to vote on Tuesday. Seriously, spend time, sit down and make phone calls. Drive someone
to the polls. Call you know, call somebody, Call your sister, your son, your next door neighbor, your coworker, call somebody, and say, look, this election matters. If you get two, three, four, five people to vote who wouldn't have voted otherwise, you can change the outcome. And so I just want to have a call to action across this country. I know you love our country. I'm really frightened about this election. I'm hopeful, I'm optimistic. I said, I'm sixty forty, but
that forty scares the hell out of me. So I want to call on our verdict, listeners, do not let the forty come to pass. Spend your time Monday and Tuesday getting people to show up and vote an election day so that when we're sitting there Tuesday night, we are celebrating and we're not horrified and weeping for a country.
Amen to that.
We will be back with you in some capacity, hopefully on election night, and we'll at least be able to talk more to you. Then, don't forget. We do the show Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Share this podcast please. Hopefully it'll inspire others to go vote and it makes you grab my podcast. I'll keep you updated as well, the Ben Ferguson podcasts as well. On election Day, I'll have that for you in the morning, and the Center I will see you back here tomorrow