Welcome.
It is Verdict with center, Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you live from the Republican National Convention, and we've.
Got an audience out there. I love it.
Senator, this is the first morning I have ever woken up truly believing that Joe Biden is going to drop out of this presidential race. I've never believed it was possible before this morning. I want to get your initial reaction to that.
Well, listen, if only someone could have predicted that before this week, I know, right. So, for regular Verdict listeners, you will recall that this podcast ten months ago, ten months ago, we predicted that Joe Biden would drop out of this race, that the Democrats would throw him out.
Yeah.
And we predicted ten months ago that he'd be replaced by Michelle Obama.
Yes.
And at the time, the corporate media treated that prediction as utter moon bat insanity, insanity like complex deletely nuts.
Do we want a prize for ten months ago? By the way, I got to give you the brainchild of it ten months ago.
I'll give you full credit. Do we get a prize for that?
I think we certainly should get a prize, But look, I think it's going to happen. I think it is going to happen within the next week. And we have seen we've seen the momentum building and building and building. And look, I got to tell you, and you and I have talked about this. I have mixed sentiments at this convention. On one side, I am thrilled. I am excited because the party is unified. It's unified at a level I've never seen. I've been to a lot of con.
A lot of conventions. What was your first one?
Nineteen ninety two. I was at nineteen ninety two. I had just graduated from college. I was twenty one years old. Nineteen ninety two, was in Houston.
Oh, there you go.
And it was.
Actually it was the last public speech Ronald Reagan ever gave. And actually just after the convention they announced he had Alzheimer's, so it was his last public address.
And so for his speech, it was very cool.
Texas de Gation was in front because it was in Houston, and they decided they wanted all the college kids down front. They wanted to show that the Republican Party is young and vibrant. So all the college kids we were in that we were put up front. So I was in the front row for Reagan's last public address.
I'm jealous.
And here's something really cool. At the time, Heidi was in college. She was at Claremont McKenna. She was the president of the College Republicans at Claremont McKenna out in California. She was at the convention and she was in the front row with the Texas delegation.
And we didn't meet. I said, did you meet? No, we didn't meet until eight years later. Wow.
But every time I see photographs of that convention, I like scan them to see if someone somehow got a picture of Heidi and me standing near each other, because we were very close to each other. So the point is, I've been to a lot of these I have never seen unity like this last couple of days. As you know, I've done a ton of media interviews, and you listen to the reporters.
They're losing their minds. They're so unhappy.
They're like, you guys are so difide yea, and they're furious, like it.
We know not how to screw things up well in the Republican Party. When it comes to unity, this does feel very different.
Everyone is on the same page.
Everyone is united, Everyone wants Trump to win in November. Everyone wants to win the Senate, everyone wants to win the House. But you and I have also talked about this. I'll tell you what I'm scared about. I'm scared about overconfidence.
I couldn't agree more.
Look, there is an aspect of this convention that feels like a celebration, and I get that. But my message to everyone at this convention is it is not time to celebrate. We'll celebrate after election day. We need work to do.
We have a.
Job in front of us, and listen, I think we're going to come out of this convention. I think we'll see a bounce in the polls, and then I think within days or even hours, the Democrats are going to announce Joe Biden is no longer our nominee. They're going to pull them off, and the media is going to
reset the entire race. They're going to do everything they can to take away the momentum from this convention, and so nobody here should get over confident because this becomes very, very dangerous, and the media is going to do everything they can to say, well, Joe was old, but now we're going to replace them with someone young. Everything solved, Move on forward.
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It helps because he's been dead for.
Three very true.
They said on I want you to listen to this clip because it's an interesting clip.
And they said on MSNBC they're so ready to be done with him.
They said, Joe Biden, obviously as COVID, and they said he is quote self isolating both medically.
And politically. Listen, get up to dat though, with what's happened happening in Milwaukee. Also what you're hearing from the Biden campaign.
Yeah, we'll start with the Biden campaign, Joe, and exactly right about the sequencing. So on your air, I talked about the fact three weeks ago that there was an effort among top Democrats to give President Biden the chance to walk off the stage. They said, he is proud, he's stubborn, we love him, we appreciate him. We want to give him the chance to walk off the stage.
President Biden, in the view of these top Democrats, did not take the hint and the way that one top Democrat, someone very close to the West wing, put it to me Sunday as I sat here on the floor of this hall with my laptop doing reporting at the Republican Convention about what was happening in the Democratic Party. They said, we don't want to humiliate him.
That was the effort.
Then we saw this sequence yesterday and is my brilliant colleague Zach Bossu puts it at the top of Axios this morning. President Biden is now self isolating, both medically and politically.
I mean, that's an obituary to his entire career. And he says, what we've seen. Let's talk about what we've seen. Every aspect of the Democratic Party has now run him entirely, turn on him completely. Ye, you've got the Clintons. They're saying you're done. The Obama's saying you're done, Schumer saying you're done, Pelosi saying you're done, Jeffreys saying you're done, Holly media saying you're done, the donors saying you're done, Hollywood saying you're done.
Everyone, How the.
Hell does this guy? He won't survive this.
He doesn't. And look, you and I we predicted this ten months ago. And then the night of the debate. You and I did a podcast the night of the debate, immediately after the debate, and I said that night, Biden's done. He is no longer the nominee. He will be chased out. It'll take a few weeks for it to happen. But this is what's going to happen. Why, because the Democrats are terrified they're going to lose. Now, it's worth noting none of them care that we have a commander in
chief right now with dementia. Has a single Democrat said, well, gosh, if he's so mentally diminished, he needs to resign as president. Nobody said that, not a single Democrat. Apparently they're fine with him having his finger on the button. Now, mind you, there comes a point where you take the keys away from grandpa. Yes, but it's even scary if the keys are attached to ICBMs. Yes, but the Democrats aren't doing that.
The only reason they're bailing on Biden is because the American people in the debate saw that and said, holy crap, that man can't tie his shoes, and we're going to lose. And they're suddenly protecting their rear end. Now, when you and I have been predicting it, people have asked, how does this happen? And you go back, go back to Richard Nixon. Yep, when Richard Nixon stepped down, Listen, he didn't do so because he just said, well, gosh, I
want to leave. He did so because a half dozen old bulls from the Senate, old Republican senators went to the Oval office and they said, mister President, you're done, and he resisted. And let's be clear, they didn't just rely on persuasion.
They said, if you don't.
Resign, the House is going to impeach you and we're going to convict you.
So you will be removed.
And your only choice is do you want to do it voluntarily or do you want us to throw yeut of office? And that ultimately led to the president.
The president.
Now, in this situation, we've seen the equivalent of the old bulls, the gray beards of the Democrat Party. All of the constituent groups, one after the other after the other, go to Biden say get out and get out, get out. They initially did so quietly, quietly, didn't work. They then have done so more and more publicly. And by the way, if Biden were to dig in, if he were to say, I don't care, I'm not going, they have a hammer. The twenty fifth Amendment. I understand how the twenty fifth
Amendment works. All it takes is the vice president and a majority of the cabinet and the vice president of the majority of the cabinet. If they sign a letter declaring that the president is unfit for office.
He is removed from office instantly. Instantly.
Now he can file a letter saying no, I am fit for office, and then it goes to Congress and it takes two thirds of both houses. But you know what, Pelosi's turned on him, Schumer's turned on him. The Democrats are terrified.
So they would accept it, is what you're saying. Yes, So let me ask you this. If he doesn't drop out, it's not.
Going to come to that. He's going to.
I don't think it's going to come to that. But that's the hammer that they don't want to threaten that. And and look the whole line about about dignity. They don't want to have to threaten that. But he is gone and so and in my view, there's lots of speculation about about who the replacement will be. I believe the replacement will be one of two human beings. It will either be Kamala Harris or it will be Michelle Obama.
Those are the only two human beings I believe that will be at the top of the take.
And if Kamala gets it, it's only because of logistics.
So actually, I think the logistics argument is completely overstated.
So explain that. Let's let's explain the people who just exchargument the argument that the argument is we hold hold on.
Before we do that, let me explain why it's Kamala or or Michelle Kamala is next in line. Now, a lot of Democrats recognize that Kamala has limitations as a candidate, and so there's some Democrats that are like, oh, what are we doing? So you people hear people talking about Gavin Newsom. I think the chances that Gavin Newsom is at the top of the ticket are zero point zero
zero percent. And the reason why it's not complicated the Democrat Party is structurally unable to push aside an African American woman and replace her with a white guy like their party would implode. They would I mean, you talk about civil wars, they would have a civil war with muskets, like a literal civil war. They can't do that, which means all of the names bannied about, none of them.
You could have a primary and someone defeats her, but if it's annoying in a successor, I don't believe their party can do that, which means the only human being on planet Earth who could push Kamala side is Michelle Obama. Michelle Obama's obviously also an African American woman, but an African American woman with much higher approval ratings. And I think a much more dangerous candidate. Ten months ago, I said, and I still say it today. If I were a Democrat,
I would be all in. I would be begging Michelle because I got to tell you, look, sitting here as a Republican who desperately wants us to win in November. That scares the living daylights out of me. If Michelle is the nominee, it is dangerous and everyone here better understand we're in for the fight of our life if it's her. Now, what is interesting is how much the Democrat Party is circling the wagons behind Kamala.
And I think Kamala has risen.
Is that because it's easier logistically, That's where I asked that question, Because the money's there, the campaigns there, it's seamless.
It's just seamless, bultedash, complete nonsense.
So people are saying, oh, well, Kamala is the only one who can access the money. Biden Harris's raise, and so that's why they'll do it. What uttered look imagine because that's what everybody's saying, but everyone's saying it. Anyone's meaning true. That doesn't actually hasn't run a presidential campaign. It doesn't know how things operate. It's true Michelle Obama can't access the money, and the Biden coffers what happens the day Michelle Obama's announces the nominee.
I'm assuming they would start the campaign, start raising money.
And every Democrat, every grassroots Democrat, every activist, every donor is suddenly goes from the despondency, depression, despair.
They're resigned.
Crap, we're gonna lose, crap's gonna Trump's gonna be president. We're gonna lose the Senate, We're gonna lose the House. They're in misery, and they wake up and hallelujah, hallelujah. Michelle Obama is riding in to save the day and.
A billion dollars of free press, and.
They would raise a billion dollars within three weeks. Every Democrat billionaire goes, holy crap, we've saved the world. Get me my checkbook, and we're talking Michelle would raise it in one hundred million dollar chunk.
There is no money problem.
Plus all the free media.
And the free media, so it is massive. The only thing that can save us from that is if Michelle says no. And I am praying. Look, Michelle, you and I are not close. To put it mildly, but I just want to say, man, you got a good life. Ye you're kicking back. Martha's vineyard is really nice in the summertime. I've told I've never been there, but I'm told it's nice. Like you're kicking back, You're sipping charnay, You're on a yacht, you're on a private jet, You're paling around with movie stars.
Loves you.
You don't want to deal with the pesky.
You don't want to deal with us, you don't want to deal with politicians.
You can't stand us.
So just live your life as a movie star and a celebrity and don't bother with the gritty mess.
Now. I don't know if that's persuasive to her or not. I will tell you.
I've heard people say confidently Michelle doesn't want it.
Maybe, And here's why I say maybe.
When they say Michelle doesn't want if they say well she said she didn't want it. Okay, Well, you know politicians, you could always believe what they say, like when they say they don't want something, it's always telling the truth.
But they I don't want it. I don't want it, but I do get to be on Air Force one when I want it.
So they base it on the fact that Michelle did not run in twenty twenty. Well, that's true, but it is a very different decision to say, do I want to run for president? Do I want to spend two years going through the muck? Do I want to come Mary? Do I want to go through every county in Iowa? Do I want to go all over New Hampshire? Do I want to go all over South Carolina? Do I want to raise money nonstuff? Do I want to spend two years of my life? It is all comes to me.
And by the way, Michelle knows it.
Yeah, She's witnessed it twice.
She went side by side with Baroxo.
She knows exactly what's entitled entailed in that.
That is a very different decision.
Than at three months two and a half months, co.
Michelle, we will have a coronation. Everyone will sing your Hoseanna. We will hand you the nomination. You'd give one speech, you'd do a debate, you do a couple of rallies, and suddenly you're President of the United States. Yeah, there are very few people on planet Earth that if you walked up and said, okay, we'll make you president right now? All right, Right, we got a studio audience here. How many of you would say yes if we offered you would you like to be president?
Would you say yes?
If they were okay, right now, we're getting nods, there's like, yeah, okay, one guy said no, One guy said no, right, one guy said no.
Out everyone here.
He lives at Martha's vineyard. By the way, I guarantee, right, all right, guarantee.
It's an unusual cat that would say no to being offered the coronation.
So Michelle scares me.
But I want to say something else to Republicans at this convention and across the country.
Don't get over confident with Kamala.
Yeah, it's a great point.
I got to ask you about the twenty fifth in a moment, because there's a lot of people asking questions about that.
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Party is in disarray. They're depressed, the donors are depressed. They feel like they're about to lose. I think anybody that gets this opportunity, that could be Kamala Harris, will reinvigorate the checkbooks, or reinvigorate the party, or reinvigorate every candidate that's down balloted because it's a reset button. I think the bump that we get out of this convention could have instantly disappear with Kamala Harris because of all of the news you're talking about. And I think the
amount of money she'll raise. But I also think the thing is what Kamla is. She will also get a billion dollars of free media. The media will obsess over her. It changes the race completely.
Do you agree, I absolutely do what I will say.
Look, Republicans, people at this convention think rightly that Kamala is a train wreck, that she's been an absolute disaster. She's the borders are except she only went to the border once as vice president. She and act even go to the Rio Grand Valley. Everything she's touched had been a disaster. She got clobber in the Democratic primary. There are lots of reasons to say Kamala is not very good at this, but you made the exact right point.
Imagine it with a billion dollars of free media, with every media outlet hyperventilating saying, oh, she's a combination of Mother Teresa, Oprah.
And Gandhi all combined.
Like you will see reporters running after her, throwing their panties at her.
And by the way, that's just the men.
That those men, let's be clear about that, those are identify as men.
Right, you never know and nowadays.
And it is a dangerous thing.
So listen, I think we beat Kamala, but everyone here needs to be aware. We're not just going against Kamala We're going against every corporate media outlet. We're going against all of Hollywood. We're going against big tech, which will elevate everything. They will do everything they can, and their narrative will be you know what they'll say, Biden was a great historic president, but he got too old.
We all get too old, and we fixed that problem. Now.
Now Kamalas is young and vigorous. She smiles a lot, she laughs, and it drives us crazy. Yes, get ready to hear that last so often.
You're going you're.
Gonna wake up at nights screaming and hearing the cackle.
They also believe that she's going to bring women together for two reasons. One, they're going to make Roe v. Wade an issue again and try to really bring feminists and women out on that.
That'll be a core point of her campaign.
But two, just the overall history of women and breaking the glass ceiling. She also is a minority. Yeah, so you would have a minority female who would make history while in re engaging women voters in the Democratic Party and women that maybe are swing voters.
I think that's actually very, very dangerous.
It is exceptionally dangerous. And let's complicate it a little more. If it is Michelle, if it is Kamala, who's the VP.
It's a great question. I honestly have not thought about it much. I say that here's why. I'm like, do you pick a man? Do you pick another woman? Do you pick someone that's young? Do you pick someone that's older that's not a threat to you if you don't do well and for you? I mean, I've been so focused on Joe Biden, and I'm going who's on the short list.
I don't know if they would even know who their short is yet. Who do you have?
Yeah, So I have a couple of thoughts.
One possibility that is a real possibility is Gavin Newsom. I don't believe Gavin Newsom could be at the top of the ticket, but I believe he would be a very credible undraiser VP choice for either either Michelle or Comma that that that is a VP choice. And mostly Newsome comes with with with just a crap ton of California monds.
And he's a good looking guy, he's smooth, he's slick.
Gavin Newsom reminds me of the comment about Bill Clinton, he's an unusually good liar, and in Democrat politics, that is a really good tribute. He is a gifted and talented liar. Now I've also pointed out I consider Gavin Newsom.
I I want to actually name him.
Texas Realator of the Year because nobody has sold more homes in the State of Thames than Gavin Newso, I mean he could sell homes every we're in Texas. But I'll also point out, all right, so Political Playbook, which is every political junkie reads the playbook. It's kind of
a combination of news and gossip from politics. So Playbook right now writes about a polling memo circulating among Democratic Party officials that argues the best chance to defeat Trump is with a new nominee independent of the administration, in other words, not Kamala Harris. And look, we get that Kamala in an open field is not the most attractive political candidate for the Democrats, but I think they're locked into her unless Michelle is doing it. But what's interesting
is what this memo argues. And it says based on polling of who does well against Trump, it says the strongest candidates. So this is polling for their presidential nominee, but it says the strongest potential candidates are, in alphabetical order, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania go Josh Shapiro, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
That's the one that keeps coming in my mind. A double women woman ticket.
Look, that is certainly a possibility, and they're different philosophies on vps. Sometimes a president picks a VP that is different, that that is markedly different.
Think JFK picking LBJ.
You picked kind of totally different branches of the party to unifif EI them. Think Reagan picking Bush. That that that is one way to do it. Other times a nominee reinforces the strength of a candidate, and think Bill Clinton picking Al Gore. We're both young, relatively conservative Southern Democrats, kind of doubling down. This is our message. I think there is a chance they do that. But my guess is I think the Democrats are less likely to pick
two women. I don't know this, but but I think as I look at it, I would.
Set to bet tonight you go with Gavin Newsom.
Or Josh Shapiro, and Josh Shapiro is a they don't know, Okay Shapiro, Josh Shapiro.
The audience says, Been Shapiro, not Josh Shapiro.
They will not pick Been Shapiro, although, boy, that would be fun. Can Shapiro? Now that's that's that's a unity ticket right there. Josh Shapiro is the governor of Pennsylvania. He used to be the Attorney General of Pennsylvania. He is widely perceived as a moderate Democrat. He's not very moderate, but he's widely perceived as such. He's what passes for a moderate in today's Democrat party. Now, look, Pennsylvania is a state both sides view as very close to must win.
There are paths to getting to two hundred and seventy electoral votes without Pennsylvania, but not many. Pennsylvania is probably the single most contested UH swing state in this election. Josh Shapiro is a popular governor, yep. And a popular governor, and.
Governors you will in that position.
Look it.
I think Shapiro would be dangerous. I'd be surprised if she picked him. But I'll tell you Mark Kelly would be a very dangerous candidate. I know Mark Well. Mark is Look, he's a Navy veteran, he's a former astronaut. He's a short, muscular, bald guy. And look, it's very hard to call Mark Kelly a wuss. Yeah, Like he seems that there's a reason that he has won decisively at Arizona. He's also an affable guy, so he seems moderate,
he seems reasonable. His voting record is terrible, but he comes across as very He comes across like he could be a Republican.
So I could see.
I doubt Mark Kelly would be the nominee, but I could see him being in the mix.
So I would.
Probably say Michelle slash Kamala, and I'd probably give Kamala the edge right now. Part of that may be just wishful thinking. I wanted to be Kamala, not Michelle. And in terms of the VPS, I would say Shapiro, Newsome, Kelly Whitmer.
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And two?
If they delay the convention, will he step down at the convention and then have that be the media or does it come out before the convention?
All right, so the appellate lawyer and maybe has has to say, I love that you asked A and two.
Yeah, like that's that. That's just kind of a fun outline.
You're welcome.
Just want just want to mess with you every once while see if you're selling your game, right af B Is that better.
That that is?
I like Roman numbers and outlines and and Z. But but I'm not going to tell you I love ven diagrams. I'm gonna leave that to say ven diagrams make make my my cold cruel heart go pitter pat. Look, uh, I don't think they delay the convention. They might, but I doubt it, and they don't. Wait, I think this happens within the next week. I think this could easily happen this weekend. And and frankly, look, the Democrats are
smart by delaying till after this convention. This convention kill them a minute has been phenomenal, and and the media will treat whoever parachutes in the media will treat it as a brand new race, ignore anything that happened before. We're brand new, starting over, and so I think they
want to get on with that quickly. So my prediction, by the way, if you want to think about momentous and historic weeks in politics, on Saturday, the forward president of the United States was shot, the first presidential assassination attempts since nineteen eighty one. Immediately thereafter, we've had an incredibly successful convention, We've had a vice presidential nominee named, and it could be within a week of that, because
I could easily see it being this weekend. Joe Biden is off the ballot, and we have a new Democrat nominee, and there's chatter, there's some of the pundits that are saying, oh, we ought to have an open primary, we got to have Democrats fighting, going to happen. I don't believe that will happen. They will coorroinate, and I think it'll be one of the two.
My bonus question is either three or c depending on how you want to enlist these. How many times will Kamala Harris or Michelle Obama debate Donald Trump?
Once? We'll have one debate, just one debate.
We will have one band.
Could they get away with saying I'm not going to debate now, No, even if it's Michelle.
I think they will do one debate. I think they will feel like it's not credible if you don't do a debate, particularly because.
If you're Trump, do you push for two? I would yeah, but they say it's a reset. We're doing two of these suckers before November.
But I don't think they'll end up doing it. Look, I think Trump may well push for two. Part of the reason if you're a Democrat everyone concedes Trump mopped the floor with Biden. I think it's a Democrat. You don't want that to be the only debate. If you're putting someone new, you'd need something credible. I will tell you, I just came from a meeting that that jad Vance met with all the senators. We're congratulating him, and he did have a very funny thing he shared with us.
He said, you know, he was talking to to Trump about, well, okay, who are we going to face?
Is going to be someone new? Is it going to be Kamala? And and and and.
Jad said well, well, look, mister President, I said, yes, assuming I got to debate Tamala. If they actually bring in someone that's a really good debater, I may have to rethink this. And Trump said, no, backing out. You accepted that thing. You're stuck.
You'rein't going anywhere.
But look that.
I I think they'll do it fast. By the way, I will point out the night of the debate, when you and I did a podcast immediately thereafter, we said that night, this is the most consequential presidential debate in American history. And the reason we said that is because we said, I believe this will change the names on the ballot in November.
And that has never happened.
There's never been a debate that changed the names on the ballot. And that's exactly what that debate did. It took a few weeks to play out, but I think it is imminent. I think it is within days.
To everybody that's here in the hall, thank you guys for joining us. It's nice to do a show here at the convention. Senator cruise and I do this money was a Friday hit that subscribe auto download button wherever you are, and I have way.
How do you subscribe? Because because as you know, my dad's eighty five. My father is my hero. But my father points out all the time when I use the word subscribe, he says, people my generation think magazine subscriptions. They think you're gonna charge us uncosted anymore.
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Subscribe to the podcast. If you're over forty, call your.
Kids or call your grandkids and ask them to help you subscribe to the podcast. But it's real simple. And I see a bunch of young people there laughing, Yes, know how to do this, And like you call your parents, call your grandparents and say, okay, give me your phone.
Actually, don't even tell them, just just take their phone and it's here.
Pull it up, pull up podcast, hit subscribe and it magically appears. You can set it to download, it'll magically appear, and it's every Monday, every Wednesday, it's every Friday, and we do this. Number one, if you subscribe to the podcast, you you know what's happening. We predicted this ten months ago, and by the way, nobody else was predicting this.
We were do we.
Get a letter from the media when they thought we were moonbacks apologizing No?
Okay?
But number two, this is designed to equip you to give you the tools when you're talking to your friends, your family, young people, when you're talking to your classmates in school and they're arguing, and to give you the facts that the corporate media never reports. That's what we try to do three times a week on this is this is what you need to know to go and persuade and win.
And I promise we will have an emergency pod if and when Joe Biden drops out. That's a fair prediction, right, I think that is a fair prediction. Grab it wherever you can. Donald Trump's speech tonight, any any prediction last minute?
Will he needled Joe Biden?
Look, I think it is going to be substantially tamped down. I think Saturday change the speech. In fact, I know Saturday change the speech that I think prior to Saturday the speech was going to be quite combative, and I expect to see a lot of unity, a lot more language seeking to bring people together. And look, we've seen this throughout the convention. We talked about we did a
live podcast at the convention yesterday. I talked about when I visited with President Trump yesterday, and I think Saturday really had an impact on him, had an impact. I mean, he kind of pulled me aside and said really quietly, just said God saved me. And it was it was quiet and serious in a way that I think is really consequential. And listen, I think it's you can't go through what he went through Saturday, having been shot and
having been within a half inch of being killed. Amen, without really thinking about God Almighty turning his head because I believe that happened. I believe it was divine providence that turned his head. And had it been slightly one where the other, we would be having a dramatically different conversation.
No doubt about it. Always a pleasure at the convention. Thanks to everybody that are here. We will see you back here in a couple of days.