Nicolai Tangen oversees Norges Bank Investment Management, also known as Norway’s oil fund. It contains about $2tn in assets, based on money earned from drilling for oil offseas. Today on the show, Tangen talks with Katie Martin about everything from the European economy to China and Taiwan to overconcentration in the American stock markets. Also, Tangen goes long learning and short red tape. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can...
Oct 17, 2024•21 min
Grouping the majority of the world’s economies into a basket labelled “emerging markets” and trying to generalise about them is a fool’s errand. And we are perfect for the job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter discuss the EM landscape and pay particular attention to Brazil’s hot economy. Also we go long Poppy Gustafsson and short Netflix’s research department. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Arm...
Oct 15, 2024•20 min
Eli Lilly’s shares have surged 750 per cent over five years. Novo Nordisk’s are up about 360 per cent in the same period. It's been an awesome run for these companies. But how much longer can it last? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to the FT’s US pharmaceutical and biotech correspondent Oliver Barnes about the astonishing growth in weight-loss drugs, and their future. Also we short inflation and running clubs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter...
Oct 10, 2024•21 min
Stocks are flying, rates are plunging, jobs are surging, but everyone says they’re anxious. What is going on? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand the many strange and sometimes contradictory things happening in the US economy. Also, we go short Spirit Halloween and long monsters. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at katie.martin...
Oct 08, 2024•21 min
As the conflict in the Middle East expands to include Lebanon and Iran, markets are responding with surprising nonchalance. Why? And will that last? Today on the show, Katie Martin and capital markets correspondent Nick Megaw try to understand why so much can go wrong in one part of the world, without roiling markets in the rest of the world. Also, we go long the Vix, and short e-cycles. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can emai...
Oct 03, 2024•16 min
Last week China announced it would be providing low-cost funds to investors in both equities and the property market. The nominal effects were immediate, and the country’s stock market has recently risen as much as 20 per cent. Boosting stock prices is one thing, but there is a bigger problem: can Beijing encourage more domestic spending, and less saving? Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses all this with the Unhedged newsletter's newest writer, Aiden Reiter, who, it turns out, speaks Manda...
Oct 01, 2024•17 min
When discussing the economy after the interest rate cuts last week, chair of the US Federal Reserve Jay Powell made an interesting comment about jobs numbers and immigration. “If you are having millions of people come into the labour force, and you are creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up,” he said. Well, mostly. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – get together to discuss how immigration might be affecting une...
Sep 26, 2024•19 min
As the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates, a perennial theory has returned: that small and mid caps will, for a time, grow more quickly than the S&P 500. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter discuss whether that is good, or even true. Also, as the seasons change, we go long and short knitwear. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Ka...
Sep 24, 2024•22 min
In a massive surprise on Wednesday, one of Rob Armstrong’s predictions turned out to be right. The Fed did indeed cut interest rates by half a percentage point. A cut this big is deeply unusual, and normally happens in a crisis. But there are a lot of reasons to think we’re not in a crisis at all. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk about what the Fed just did, and where the central bank is headed. Also, we go long European merger drama and short well-being at big banks. ...
Sep 19, 2024•18 min
Apollo Global Management is publicly traded and one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world. But what does it really do? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks reporters Sujeet Indap and Eric Platt to describe the parts that make up Apollo. Also they go long Boeing and long News Corp. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected] .&nbs...
Sep 17, 2024•22 min
Forty years ago Ireland had a high number of emigrants and very few multinational corporations. Then it became a tax haven. Today, the country is the headquarters for the European arms of companies such as Apple, Google and Intel. The country also has an €8bn surplus, and is about to get €13bn more following a court ruling with the iPhone maker. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Irish economist David McWilliams try to figure out what Ireland should do with all this extra cash. Also they go sho...
Sep 12, 2024•22 min
Will the US central bank lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? Fed chair Jay Powell has hinted rates are coming down, but not by how much. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take sides and argue the case for the expected 25 basis point cut, and a larger 50 basis point cut. Also we short Apple’s new phone, and go long the amazing technology of the veterinarian. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Ro...
Sep 10, 2024•21 min
By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email ...
Sep 05, 2024•23 min
The run-up in the markets over the past year or so has been largely driven by tech companies with outsized returns. But that seems to be changing. Names such as Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealthCare have been performing strongly while the once-hot tech sector seems to lag. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a sign of an era shift in the market. Also we ask if Jerome Powell was lucky or good. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsle...
Sep 03, 2024•18 min
Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedo...
Aug 29, 2024•24 min
The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and...
Aug 27, 2024•22 min
Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]...
Aug 22, 2024•18 min
Two weeks ago, investors seemed headed for the exits. Now they’re back in and cash is flooding the markets again. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack the madness. Also, we go long gold and short social media. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pa...
Aug 20, 2024•19 min
How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: ...
Aug 15, 2024•22 min
Jim Leaviss started his career in fixed income at the Bank of England, and is ending it 30 years later as the outgoing chief investment officer for fixed income of M&G Investments, which manages more than £100bn in bonds. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with Jim about what he learned over his long career. Also, the two throw down on the best albums of the 90s. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email ...
Aug 13, 2024•25 min
Ackman is one of most well-known investors in the US, and one of the loudest. He has more than a million followers on X and isn’t afraid to argue with any of them. But his active social media feed and his fundraising seem to be at odds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and James Fontanella-Khan dissect the remains of Ackman’s cancelled IPO. Also we go short Italy and long hypocrisy. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Rob...
Aug 08, 2024•21 min
On Monday, markets around the world agreed to go into a tailspin. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest Nick Megaw try to figure out what drove it all. They cover unemployment, manufacturing, the Japanese carry trade, the Magnificent Seven, and the foolishness of the retail investor. Also we go long Google, and long CNBC at midnight. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and ...
Aug 06, 2024•20 min
Tesla’s earnings slightly disappointed last week, but its stock is still valued at nearly 100 times earnings. Does this make sense? And what exactly is Tesla anyway? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and reporter Aiden Reiter take apart Tesla and try to sort out an eclectic basket of electric cars, self-driving taxis, humanoid robots and other grand plans for the future. Also we go long the yen and long bitcoin, for complex reasons. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter g...
Aug 01, 2024•17 min
Wall Street withheld tens of millions of dollars in campaign financing to pressure US President Joe Biden to withdraw from November’s election and endorse Kamala Harris. And it worked. But how did Wall Street get so interested in a public prosecutor from San Francisco? And what do financiers hope she’ll bring to the table? Today on the show, deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan walks Robert Armstrong through the whirlwind courtship between Harris and big money. Also, we short Bill Ackman and go ...
Jul 30, 2024•21 min
Presidential candidate Donald Trump has argued for a weaker dollar in recent interviews. That makes some sense. A weaker currency can increase exports and narrow a trade deficit. But how does one weaken a currency, and is it really a good idea? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and new Unhedged newsletter reporter Aiden Reiter discuss the options. Also, we go long tomatoes and short Lamb Weston, notable manufacturer of french fries. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: ...
Jul 25, 2024•20 min
As the election nears, Wall Street is starting to talk more about what a bet on a second Trump presidency might look like. Today on the show, we cover possible outcomes for inflation, long-term bond yields, currency manipulation, corporate taxes, protectionism, isolationism, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and even the rally in small-cap stocks. Also we go long sterling and short the Russell 2000. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.c...
Jul 23, 2024•23 min
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority just released rule revisions that are meant to attract new listings on the country’s exchanges. These include legalising shares that move a lot of the power from investors to founders. Will this be enough to restart London as a hub for innovation? Today on the show Katie Martin and UK business correspondent Michael O’Dwyer talk about the new rules and whether they will help dynamic companies list in the UK. Also we go long professional services and shorts in ...
Jul 18, 2024•20 min
Last week the FT’s Moral Money writer Simon Mundy spoke with venture capitalist Vinod Khosla about 20 years of making big, long bets on renewable energy. Some have paid off, but most haven’t. Khosla is fine with that, and continues to look for big wins in the very long run on solutions such as fusion. Today on the show, Simon and Katie Martin discuss the future of green tech. Also, we short cars and electric bicycles. Unhedged Listener Survey Terms & Conditions For a free 30-day trial ...
Jul 16, 2024•18 min
Paramount and Skydance are merging. That’s a win for David Ellison, whose small studio will join a legendary one with a huge back catalogue and a nascent streaming platform. But is this merger of the old and new enough to compete in the new Hollywood? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan talk about the Paramount deal and the future of entertainment. Also, we take sides in the Euro soccer/football final this weekend. Unhedged Listener Survey Ter...
Jul 11, 2024•20 min
Recent elections have changed politics in Europe, delivering a centre-left Labour government in the UK and shifting seats to a left alliance in the French parliament. Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses this new landscape, and what it means for global markets and finance, with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, we short political journalists and opinion polls. Take the Unhedged Listener Survey Terms & Conditions For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged n...
Jul 09, 2024•23 min
