Bits + Bips: Why a U.S. Recession May Be Coming — And Still Isn’t Priced In - Ep. 814

The markets are rattled. Tariffs are rising. Investors are pulling back.

In this week’s Bits + Bips, the panel digs into what’s really driving the selloff, why the Fed may be stuck, and how Trump’s tariff logic could trigger deeper economic shocks than anyone expects.

Plus:

• Whether Bitcoin becomes a safe haven
• What makes this downturn different from 2022 and 2020
• Why a potential recession still isn’t priced in
• Whether Congress can take the tariff button away from Trump

And yes, Ram coins a new term: FAFO tariffs 😀

Sponsors:

• Bitwise
• 
  

• James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
• Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard
• Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida
• Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter 

Tariffs:

• Recent coverage of Unchained on the economy and tariffs: 
• Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto
• Bits + Bips: Trump’s Tariffs Are Causing Mayhem, But Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?
• Trump Tariffs Sink Crypto, BlackRock Pumps Bitcoin’s Bags
• Why Trump-Induced Stagflation Could Finally Make Bitcoin a Safe Haven
• In Market Crash, What Should You Buy? Crypto VCs Are Making These Bets

10-year yield and the Fed

• CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises back above 4% despite tariff threat to growth
• Reuters: No Fed 'put' when it's unclear which way the economy may pivot

2008 Market Crash

• Federal Reserve: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath
• CNN: Bailout Plan Rejected - Supporters Scramble

Can Congress Step In?

• Economist: How Donald Trump’s Tariffs Will Probably Fare in Court
• Politico: Trump Threatens Veto of Bill to Curb Tariff Power

Timestamps:

👋 0:00 Intro

📉 3:30 Why this selloff feels nothing like 2022 or 2020

🪞 8:41 Why buying signals could be a mirage

🤔 11:28 Is the bear market already priced in? What investors are missing.

🏚️ 14:35 Could this turn into a fall “2008 scenario”? And what real buyers are doing now

🧮 25:57 Why Trump’s tariff math is wrong, and how it will create problems for the administration

📈 36:15 Why Trump wants the 10-year yield down, and why he’s failing

🛟 39:59 What counts as a safe haven right now, and is bitcoin one of them?

🏦 52:42 Can the Fed stand up to Trump’s pressure to cut rates?

🚫 57:56 Trump thinks that the trade deficit is a profit/loss statement. Why that’s a problem. 

⚖️ 1:01:19 Can Congress pull Trump’s tariff authority?

💵 1:06:32 Can stablecoins save dollar demand?

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