Many negative expectations over the past year, unfortunately, becoming reality including: severe recession or worse, continuation of inflation, increasing unemployment, worsening commercial and residential real estate issues, likelihood of lower and lower dollar, job creation issues including future robotics, and complicated by global military threats and U.S. instability. This is not a pretty picture and could actually become much worse than expected in this podcast as job growth is not only se...
Jun 16, 2025•33 min
The major trends which will not change this year or next regardless of new trade deals and Congressional programs: lower dollar, higher inflation, higher unemployment, higher gold prices and, importantly, a U.S. vs. BRICS+ divided world. The most recent data continues to demonstrate a weakening employment picture in the context of another round of high inflation and deteriorating real estate prices for both commercial and residential. All in all, the blend of many more home foreclosures hitting ...
May 29, 2025•25 min
It now seems too late to avoid a severe recession or worse given recent data and global political events. The U.S. will likely suffer less than Europe or China but, nevertheless, suffer mightily. What to consider to mitigate pain is summarized after the global situation is parsed in this podcast. Please do take advantage of this 8-minute video by Bravos Research which well summarizes issues impacting the U.S. dollar, U.S. debt refinancing, and economic stability: https://bravosresearch.com/youtu...
May 07, 2025•28 min
The global economy as well as the U.S. is heading for more volatility with 2024's issues becoming more severe in 2025 as expected. The U.S. stock market is likely in an official "bear market" with more foreign selling ahead. The same expectation applies to the U.S. government debt marketplace with more selling of U.S. securities and higher interest rates continuing. The Federal Reserve’s buying of U.S. debt expected to once again prop up the debt markets but higher inflation expectations likely ...
Apr 22, 2025•17 min
The EU is experiencing cracks in their foundation that could even threaten their existence over the next several years. China moving to super-money creation to avoid a depression while building aggressively their military and taking a direct move against the U.S. It seems the BRICS+ countries in the near term continue to move counter to U.S. positions while the U.S. shores up its own military while continuing to issue record amounts of new and refinanced debt. This year is shaping up as a year o...
Apr 03, 2025•23 min
U.S. Government propped-up housing market, pricewise, starting its fall off a cliff. Good news coming for future first-time home buyers but not so good for us existing homeowners. Covid emergency bailouts artificially kept prices high and false signaled a healthy economy...now coming to an end. Many trends converging to create a significantly negative financial environment but certain investment categories should benefit.
Mar 20, 2025•21 min
Serious stresses in the ECB and the EU, recent and revised data show a serious U.S. recession in place, new political leadership to favor a recession earlier than later, increasing interest rates and serious banking issues to emerge, increasing layoffs and contraction of U.S. work force in process, preparations for war, some positive long term forces but many negative short term ones, and increasing bi-polarization of the global economies. Many threats we warned about last year are coming to a h...
Mar 07, 2025•26 min
This year promises to be the most challenging and risky since the Global Financial Crisis! Europe is becoming more unstable politically at a time when vast amounts of government debts have to be financed/refinanced. The following negative trends are reasserting themselves: return to high inflation in the U.S., growing distance between Western World and BRICS+ countries as well as emerging conflicts between U.S. and European leadership. Like the 1970's gold and many commodities on price uptrends ...
Feb 24, 2025•25 min
U.S. has to refinance historical amounts of debt requiring Federal Reserve reinstating high money creation. Long term interest rates heading higher but home prices staying historically high. For the stock market consider avoiding interest rate and consumer industries regardless of tariffs and think about U.S. raw materials producers and hi-tech equipment manufacturers. Reconsider traditional U.S. energy producers. Stay financially conservative by avoid new debt.
Feb 05, 2025•23 min
For 2025's economic issues carried forward from 2024! China moves into a depression economy as real estate losses cost one year of total GNP. The U.S. new leadership transition is itself smoother so far than anticipated but few substantive changes will have traction in 2025/2026, the UK and EU are facing increasing economic/political risks, and, maybe most importantly U.S. inflation is again growing bringing with it higher and higher long term interest rates. Real economic growth and creation of...
Jan 23, 2025•28 min
Happy New Year! As we’re off and running into 2025 we are already faced with a lot of global issues occurring during the transition of power in the U.S. In fact, it seems as though we are finding a global reset has kicked off the new year.
Jan 09, 2025•19 min
Federal supremacy vs. state's rights (sanctuary cities/states, DEI, tariffs, and more). A new round of money creation and inflation is around the corner in both the West and China. U.S. unemployment continues its trend upward with recent government inflation measures also moving again upward. Many multi-month trends indicate that we are in a serious recession despite government arguments to the contrary.
Dec 12, 2024•17 min
The continuing disappearance of the American "Middle Class" in light of continuing high inflation rates, expanding war risks, and increasing divisiveness across our country. We've been in this situation before (and worse) including the country dividing election of 1828 (Andrew Jackson's election), the Panic of 1837, and the Great Depression of the 1930's. Many long term trends are locked in already as in the prior periods mentioned but, hopefully, this time we can avoid a major war and a depress...
Dec 01, 2024•30 min
A lot of volatility ahead as new leadership assumes power in the U.S. Pre-election negative trends are pretty much not reversible regardless on new economic policies which will take time to approve and start implementation. Unlike past global economic challenges, all global powerhouses are in downturns (U.S., China, Germany, U.K., Russia, etc.) as the BRICS+ countries continue to challenge the West including Japan and S. Korea. U.S. needs to finance $Trillions of government and real estate relat...
Nov 18, 2024•28 min
This week, we’ll talk about the implications of the BRICS+ meeting, increasing long term interest rates, and the continuing vast amount of dollars coming into the U.S. stock and bond markets. Historically, in war times, money moves out of higher geographical risk areas into U.S. dollar investments. It’s hard to predict the ebb and flow of global investment movements but, historically, when this trend ends it ends abruptly. My question is how these flows will change after the election. In the mea...
Oct 31, 2024•23 min
Most of the leading Western countries going into or well into recessions while Russia and China organize BRICS+ against the dollar and economic leadership. The implications of chronic under-reporting U.S. employment and inflation in the context of increasing long term interest rates and out of control federal spending. Stay tuned for the outcome later this month of the Russia hosted BRICS+ summit including China's plan for settlements of global trade outside of the dollar systems. Prepare for Ch...
Oct 17, 2024•21 min
The rapid progress of BRICS+ to replace the dollar, growing role of gold, a new round of money creation, and, once again, higher inflation expectations. Keep a close eye of the BRICS+ news releases and the upcoming meeting in Russia in late October. Many liberal policies being reversed/replaced in Europe including a ramp up in immigrant deportations (rising civil unrest), and, overall more out of control government spending. Now is the time to prudently plan for a war time economy or at least on...
Oct 03, 2024•25 min
BRICS+ progress to dethrone the U.S. dollar and concurrent set of U.S. economic and political threats to stability.
Sep 19, 2024•22 min
Is the October BRICS+ meeting introducing a new gold-backed currency? The global political/economic environment is rapidly deteriorating and so are the related issues we are facing. Protecting ourselves for a most volatile Fall with lower risk investments should be a top priority now.
Sep 04, 2024•21 min
Major government revision of 'number of employed' reported in process for release. Economy weakened quite significantly this summer with threat of Japan 'Carrytrade' still overhanging the U.S. bond and stock markets. Challenge by BRICS+ to the U.S. gaining global momentum with U.S. electioneering a strong negative for U.S. global engagement.
Aug 21, 2024•23 min
Key lessons to keep in mind with new and powerful fears in control. As expected, major long-term trends impacting your savings, investments, and job now "front and center". The stock market has given up all its 2024 gains with more issues to immediately follow. Hundreds of billions if not several trillion dollars promise to disrupt global financial markets as the Japan "carrytrade" reverses...is this the start of a new bear market with a declining dollar and severe recession in the offing?
Aug 09, 2024•30 min
Plus Sector By Sector Expectations. Summarizing the high risks in buying into a healthy economy even in an election year. Now, both commercial and residential real estate crashing. The Fed will regardless of real inflation expectations begin to reduce their Fed funds rate but longer term interest rates will be held at high levels. Lower income families anticipated 5-10% inflation over the next 5-10 years (in stark contrast to the Fed's 2% target). The stock market is prepped for a major down mov...
Jul 10, 2024•22 min
BRICS+ just ended the dollar’s strangle hold on Petro-dollar trade. Russia/China have largely eliminated their dollar trade with Russia eliminating dollar holdings entirely and China seemingly following suit (China is the past largest holder of US government debt). Forget the G20 and now look primarily at the traditional G7; it’s the G7 vs. the BRICS+ (will soon be over half the world’s population, the majority of the minerals, most of the oil, and rapidly growing gold reserves). Expect a seriou...
Jun 28, 2024•30 min
BRIC’s Ministers Meeting and moves to increase their control of vital minerals while moving away from the dollar, inflation remains a major problem for U.S. consumers, new jobs almost all part-time filled by non-U.S. born workers focused on low-paying compensation segments, and another bank crisis remains dead ahead.
Jun 18, 2024•17 min
The Economic Dominoes Are Falling and Falling Fast! Don’t Get Caught Up in the Stock Market Euphoria. The national commercial real estate crisis is looking more and more like a developing depression with all major markets pretty much in freefall. Look out below if you own bank stocks, REIT’s, and pretty much all lenders as consumer delinquencies are spiking up. Additionally, the BRIC’s countries are now “locked and loaded” attacking the U.S. dollar through the energy markets now and soon to be t...
May 29, 2024•19 min
There is a continuation of the free fall in the commercial real estate market and problems for our small/medium sized banks. Government agency reporting or mis-reporting of inflation, growth, and unemployment under the microscope with the reality of a difficult economy is starting to surface for all to see. White collar workers are facing new and serious job retention issues with many new layoffs reported on a weekly basis. China is stockpiling raw materials, including copper and gold, while red...
May 07, 2024•23 min
The U.S. employment data has been significantly overstated since 2022. The economy has not generated more full-time jobs for native Americans with all the reported increases either non-existent (later adjusted out of the data), part-time, or non-native Americans (importantly non-documented in America). The Fed is likely throwing in the towel, albeit slowly, on its higher interest rate policy (motivators include the commercial real estate crisis, growing banking issues, and government selling of ...
Apr 03, 2024•19 min
California employment reporting adjustments show most of reported employment gains last year had to be adjusted substantially downward. In brief, reported employment increases of close to 300,000 had to be revised downward to only 50,000 actual. Across the U.S. food prices and oil prices again moving higher as keeping overall inflation expectations at a higher rather than lower range. Meanwhile, the leaders of the stock market rally are experiencing serious issues in term of their cash flows and...
Mar 20, 2024•19 min
Banks have run out of time to camouflage their substantial bad debt losses on commercial real estate as the price decline continues. Consumer confidence declining and likelihood of an official recession is increasing. Major stock indices and capital flows into the U.S. at highs while businesses try to increase prices to maintain present levels of profits….the big money is not made in buying or selling it’s made by waiting [for the impacts of all that is already in process].
Mar 06, 2024•21 min
The contagion of U.S. commercial real estate just spread to Asia and Europe in a big way…with an estimated loss of $1.2 Trillion in office building market values more is certainly on the way. Meanwhile, the stock market is oblivious with flows of international money (thanks to the many wars), a European recession with Germany being ground zero, and large momentum funds juicing the Magnificant 7 FAANG stocks. It’s a great time to appreciate liquidity and safety while avoiding FOMO (fear of missin...
Feb 14, 2024•20 min
