In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into unique perspectives on markets and investing through the lens of Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal's innovative research approaches. They explore: A fresh take on the 60/40 portfolio debate and why the death of this strategy may be greatly exaggerated How to interpret market breadth and retail sentiment through new indicators like inverse ETF volume Why Treasury actions may be just as important as Fed policy in today's marketsThe critical relationship b...
Feb 24, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 105
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt and Jack explore key lessons from one of our most popular guests, Cem Karsan. Through selected clips from multiple interviews, they unpack Karsan's unique insights on markets, investing, and risk management. The discussion covers critical concepts including: The fundamental importance of supply, demand, and liquidity in markets Why thinking probabilistically is essential for both investing and life How different time frames affect investment decisions and ...
Feb 17, 2025•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 104
In this episode, Matt and Jack break down key insights from our interview with market strategist Jim Paulsen. Paulsen offers unique perspectives on how markets have evolved over his 40-year career, from the days when investors checked bank signs for daily Dow quotes to today's high-speed algorithmic trading environment. Key topics covered: Why traditional market valuation metrics may need updating for the modern era A novel way to measure productivity through "profit per job" and its implication...
Feb 10, 2025•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 103
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into their conversation with Jason Buck about building truly robust investment portfolios that can withstand any market environment. Moving beyond the typical "stocks only go up" mentality, they explore critical concepts like: The real difference between offense and defense in portfolio construction Why treating your portfolio as savings rather than a get-rich-quick scheme is crucial Understanding real vs. nominal returns and why this distinction matters ...
Feb 03, 2025•49 min•Season 1Ep. 102
In this deep-dive conversation, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key insights from their interview with Dr. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's most respected market strategists. The discussion explores how Yardeni's independent thinking and data-driven approach led him to correctly predict several major market developments in 2023-24, including the path of inflation and the absence of a widely-predicted recession. The hosts analyze Yardeni's unique framework for understanding market cycle...
Jan 27, 2025•52 min•Season 1Ep. 101
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including: Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habits The "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market events A thoughtful dis...
Jan 20, 2025•58 min•Season 1Ep. 100
In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we break down some of Warren Buffett's most important investing lessons and life wisdom through a series of interview clips and annual meeting footage. We start by discussing whether Buffett truly deserves the "GOAT" (Greatest of All Time) title in investing, drawing some interesting parallels to NFL running backs like Barry Sanders and comparing different investing legends' careers. We analyze Buffett's key principles including: His famou...
Jan 13, 2025•54 min•Season 1Ep. 99
In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore key insights from our previous conversations with Larry Swedroe, one of investing's most evidence-based thinkers. Through a series of clips, we examine crucial investment principles including: Why all investment decisions should be grounded in evidence rather than narratives or speculation The challenge of market forecasting and why most predictions fail How market valuations have become increasingly bifurcated Understanding and...
Jan 06, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 98
We're back with our annual predictions episode, where we look back at our (surprisingly not terrible) 2024 market calls and make fresh predictions for 2025 (which will likely be very wrong). In this episode, we're embracing the humbling experience of market forecasting to prove to everyone (and ourselves) why market forecasting is a waste of time. You'll hear us: Review how Justin actually nailed the S&P 500 forecast for 2024 (we're still trying to figure out how) Break down why predicting m...
Dec 30, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 97
In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios. Key topics include: What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue The role of currency exposure in inte...
Dec 23, 2024•57 min•Season 1Ep. 96
Join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand as they break down some of the most insightful frameworks from our interviews with macro thinker Andy Constan. Drawing from multiple conversations with Andy, they explore: Andy's experience at Bridgewater Associates and their fascinating approach to systematic investing The four pillars of macro analysis that help make sense of complex market environments A practical framework for evaluating market deleveraging events Essential lessons about personal portfolio...
Dec 17, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 95
We ask one question at the end of each of our episodes: Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we discuss our favorite answers from our guests in 2024. Featuring insights from: Jim Paulsen on understanding your true impact as an investor Cliff Asness on the importance of looking at your portfolio less frequently Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth vs. chasing returns Jared Dillian on avoiding c...
Dec 09, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 94
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we explore the timeless investing wisdom of Ben Carlson. We break down several crucial investing concepts, including why investors shouldn't blindly follow billionaires' market moves, the importance of finding an investment strategy you can stick with, and why the market rarely operates at extremes despite what headlines might suggest. We examine why even successful professionals can struggle with overconfidence in investing, the challenges ...
Dec 02, 2024•49 min•Season 1Ep. 93
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and ...
Nov 25, 2024•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 92
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack and Matt dive into some of the most controversial takes we've heard on Excess Returns in 2024. From Aswath Damodaran's spicy thoughts on the Berkshire annual meeting (spoiler: he's not a fan) to Cem Karsan's mind-bending perspective on options being the "dog" rather than the "tail," we're breaking down six of the hottest takes from 2024. We explore everything from Meb Faber challenging the sacred cow of dividend investing to groundbreak...
Nov 18, 2024•57 min•Season 1Ep. 91
In this episode, we look at the biggest lessons we have learned from Cullen Roche, one of our most frequent and insightful guests. We cover: "All Duration Investing" - Cullen's framework for matching investments to specific time horizons The Fed as Chuck Norris - Why the threat of Fed action can be more powerful than the action itself QE vs Fiscal Stimulus - Understanding why QE wasn't inflationary, but COVID stimulus was International Diversification - Making the case for looking beyond U.S. ma...
Nov 11, 2024•54 min•Season 1Ep. 90
In this episode, we sit down for a deep dive into lessons from value investor Tobias Carlisle, exploring several key insights from our conversations with him over the years. In this Halloween-themed episode (complete with plenty of Reese's cups), we break down Toby's perspectives on what makes an ideal business, the critical importance of survival in investing, portfolio concentration vs diversification, and whether today's tech giants can maintain their dominance. We cover how See's Candy exemp...
Nov 04, 2024•53 min•Season 1Ep. 89
In this episode, we dive into our conversations with Meb Faber, analyzing some of his most interesting takes on investing and wealth management. We explore several clips from our interviews where Meb shares perspectives that often challenge conventional wisdom, including his thoughts on dividend investing, trend following, and the Federal Reserve. We discuss: - The limitations of dividend-focused investing strategies - Asset allocation insights from the Talmud - A different perspective on the Fe...
Oct 28, 2024•48 min•Season 1Ep. 88
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the insights we've gained from our conversations with investing legend Rob Arnott. We explore Rob's unique perspectives on identifying market bubbles, the challenges facing value investors in today's market, and how the rise of passive investing is reshaping market dynamics. We break down Rob's thoughts on the power of narratives in investing, challenge common assumptions about interest rates and value/growth performance, a...
Oct 21, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 87
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of trend following with legendary trader Jerry Parker. We explore key insights from our previous interviews with Jerry on Excess Returns, discussing his experiences as one of the original Turtle Traders and how his approach has evolved over time. We cover several important topics, including: - The challenges of sticking to a trading system, even when you're trained to follow it. - Jerry's goals for his portfolio and how they've shifted from growth to ...
Oct 14, 2024•56 min•Season 1Ep. 86
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dig into the biggest lessons we learned from investing legend Guy Spier. Drawing from our extensive interview with Guy, we explore key insights that can benefit investors at all levels. We discuss: - The importance of learning from mistakes early in your career - Aligning your inner and outer self for authenticity and success - The power of learning in public and putting yourself out there - Defining and expanding your circle of competenc...
Oct 07, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 85
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the investing wisdom of Chris Davis, exploring eight valuable lessons from our interview with this renowned investor. We break down Chris's insights on behavioral finance, the power of inversion in decision-making, the challenges of holding winning positions, and the pitfalls of blindly imitating successful strategies. We discuss Chris's unique perspective on sector concentration and risk, his thoughts on the longevity of t...
Sep 30, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 84
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the investing wisdom of Michael Mauboussin, one of the most respected thinkers in finance. We revisit our interview with Michael and distill 10 key lessons that are still incredibly relevant for investors today. We explore crucial concepts like: The difference between investing and speculating Understanding expectations investing Why fundamentals still matter, even in today's market The paradox of skill in investing How to ...
Sep 23, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 83
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the world of quality and low volatility factors in investing. We explore how these factors work, their academic foundations, and their practical applications in portfolio construction. We discuss the definitions of quality and low volatility, examining how they're measured and why they can be valuable additions to investment strategies. We also look at the behavioral aspects that make these factors effective, particularly i...
Sep 16, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 82
In this episode, we dive into key lessons from our recent Excess Returns interview with valuation expert Aswath Damodaran. We unpack Damodaran's insights on: Why dogma in investing can be dangerous The evolving landscape of active vs passive investing Challenges facing factor investing The critical role of storytelling in valuation How AI and 'personal bots' might reshape investing careers Focusing on wealth preservation and growth over get-rich-quick schemes We offer our own perspectives on Dam...
Sep 09, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 81
In this episode, we tackle a question that is on many investor's minds: Is value investing dead? We explore various arguments for and against value investing's continued relevance in today's market. We discuss: The impact of low interest rates and Fed policy on value investing Whether too many investors have adopted value strategies How narrative-driven markets affect value investing The challenges value faces in a tech-dominated market The role of big data and its effect on traditional value me...
Sep 03, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 80
We ask all our guests on Excess Returns one closing question: If you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we compile and discuss the most impactful answers we have received to it. We break down valuable insights on investing and financial planning from experts like Michael Mauboussin, Rick Ferri, Bob Elliott, Andy Constan, Ben Inker, Meb Faber, and more. We cover a range of crucial topics, including: Michael Maub...
Aug 26, 2024•1 hr 12 min•Season 1Ep. 79
In this episode, we explore common misconceptions about factor investing. We discuss why factors aren't less risky than the market, the challenges of diversification, and why adding more factors isn't always beneficial. We emphasize the importance of long-term perspectives when evaluating factor performance and the need for strategies to evolve with changing markets. We also touch on the emotional aspects of factor investing, the differences between academic studies and real-world implementation...
Aug 20, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 78
In this episode, we dive into recent market volatility and its implications for investors. We examine several intriguing charts highlighting unusual market behavior, including significant VIX spikes and their historical context. We discuss the importance of understanding market mechanics while maintaining a long-term perspective. Throughout our conversation, we emphasize key lessons for navigating turbulent markets: the value of education over ignorance, the danger of making impulsive changes, a...
Aug 13, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 77
In this episode, we dive into lessons long-term investors can learn from our interview with Jack Schwager, author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing on Schwager's insights, we explore ten key takeaways that can benefit long-term investors, including why trading is not for everyone, the importance of learning from failure, and how to pivot strategies when markets change. We discuss Schwager's observations on risk management, the challenges of systematic trading, and the psychological aspects o...
Aug 05, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 76
