Trump’s coalition of the pressured

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This is a CBC podcast. I don't do a hard sell on them because my attitude is We don't need anybody. We're the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military by far in the world. We don't need them. But

It's interesting. I'm almost doing it in some cases, not because we need'em, but because I want to find out how they react. Paul, Katie, some conflicting messaging going on there from US President Donald Trump, but suffice it to say He's been pretty underwhelmed by how reluctant some longtime US allies have been to help the US keep open the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.

underwhelmed, but a as Trump put it, the level of enthusiasm or lack thereof, those are my words, matters to me. On the one hand he's saying Iranian forces are literally obliterated here in the region is what is it gonna take for the Strait of Hormuz to to be reopened and to get shipping back up and running back to normal. Uh all as, you know, leaders and and defense systems are tested all across the Gulf region as Iran continues to fire missiles and drones at its neighbors.

Katie Ahlan Wassalin, so great to have you in Doha and yet again there's really only one possible topic of conversation this week and it is the ongoing US war. In Iran and more specifically the impacts that it's having on the Strait of Hormuz, that critical shipping route just off the coast of Iran. Donald Trump might say he's not doing a hard time.

He's spent a lot of time over the last few days pressuring other countries to help secure that narrow waterway so that oil exports from the Persian Gulf can be We're asking, can Trump pressure the world into fighting his war? I'm Willie Lowry. I'm Katie Simpson. And I'm Paul Hunter. We're CBC's Washington correspondence, usually stationed where Willie and I are today, two blocks from the White House.

So we're recording this Tuesday afternoon. Katie, you just arrived in Doha a couple of days ago. Give us the lay of the land. As soon as we arrived, we were really given like an immediate understanding of some of the tensions and what it's like in everyday life here in Qatar. As we were crossing the border, um, almost as soon as we were sort of going through the customs process. our phones, our C B C team, our our phones started to get alerts warning that there was a heightened security threat.

Um and we'd continue to get these these alerts every couple of minutes, warning stay inside, uh stay away from windows, stay away from glass, that kind of thing, until maybe about twenty minutes later we got another alert saying, Okay, the threat is no longer there.

We later learned that um the defense system here they know they intercepted some thirteen missiles. One missile did make it through a fourteenth, but it struck an uninhabited area. We didn't hear anything in that moment other than our alerts uh on our phones. Uh so we got into to Doha and then early this morning, early Tuesday morning, um I didn't hear my phone go off, but I was woken up when our hotel started to shake because there had been a missile interception not far.

Um I don't know exactly where, but uh the government of Qatar did confirm that there had been another wave of attacks from Iran. And then in the afternoon, I wanna say maybe around three o'clock this afternoon our phone started buzzing again and then we heard three or four pretty loud explosions. We didn't see anything. Um but you could hear the explosions and the government confirming yes there had been another wave of missile attacks from Iran uh

Yeah the hotel shakes, you can hear it, it's pretty loud, it's pretty defined, and then we got another alert saying that the threat had ended. So um that is sort of what it is like here in this moment. Well, very, very happy that you are safe. But I think it's a reminder that

You know, these missile defense systems that these Gulf countries have, the efficacy is so high that sometimes it almost makes it seem a lot less scary, a lot less dangerous than it really is. But if these missiles fall or strike their targets.

it it can obviously be a very deadly consequence. So happy that you are safe and happy that you are here to talk to us. I want to do a quick little debrief of where we are in the war. We are now entering the third week According to differing sources within the US government, that being either President Trump or Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsath, the US has hit between seven thousand and fifteen thousand targets.

inside Iran uh Trump yesterday saying that there had been a ninety percent reduction in Iran's missile capabilities, a ninety five percent reduction in the country's drone capabilities. Obviously leadership has been almost entirely wiped out. So a lot of activity going on, of course, still

in this war. And meanwhile in from as Katie, if you turned around and looked out the window, I don't know if you can see the water from where you are, but the Strait of Hormuz, uh effectively um at a standstill.

um paralyzed, uh causing economic havoc around the world, including in the United States, something that Donald Trump is very aware of. Um it's a mess right now. I mean th the United States, uh the Trump administration would say that they one hundred percent anticipated trouble uh with the Strait of Hormuz, Trump critics saying i it's quite clear you did not anticipate this level of pushback from Iran and the effect that it would have

uh on shipping through the strait, but here we are and the rest of the world is paying the price for it, like literally. Gas definitely going up. But let's get to our focus this week. Paul. How exactly has Donald Trump been applying pressure on other countries over the last few days?

by literally calling the leaders of other countries and in Trump's words demanding that they line up with the United States on this. And to those who say no, or maybe not, or I'll let me think about it, uh says Trump Aaron Powell I like that. He basically it comes down to five words. I'm demanding. These are words that Trump has said.

Um and we will remember. Keeping score. Keeping score. This is the United St it's hard to say no to the United States in any circumstance. And and you know one of the things that sets Donald Trump apart on this issue and and effectively speaking every other issue that we talk about, is that you never know what he's gonna do. Uh ask any country that has crossed uh paths w uh with him on uh trade and tariffs. And you step one toe outside the line and the next thing he does is slap

More tariffs on on you or or or the whole world. You never know what he's gonna do and that's the problem. So when he says we will remember, well what does that mean? When he says I'm demanding, what does that mean? And what does it mean by the way, when the next day, as he did today I printed it up. All caps from Donald Trump on his Truth Social. We do not need the help of anyone. So even when he demands, you don't well what if we do say no? What are the consequences? And nobody knows.

And nobody knows. And now do does he still need their help? Does he need their help? Exactly. Is the request still in is it still pending or or has it been annulled? hard to kind of wrap your head around. Uh Katie, uh Trump has been pretty uh effusive in his praise uh of countries like Qatar and the UA UAE. What has been their Call it involvement or position thus far.

Well the general view here is that no one really wants to see this conflict expand any further than it already is in this moment. And and leaders do not want to be in a position where they're seen as doing something that could be considered on the military offensive. So much has been defensive, fending off these missile attacks and drone attacks from Iran. And and keep in mind another part of the perspective here is that Iran has crossed so many red lines.

by launching these attacks on its Gulf State neighbors. uh that it really has angered a lot of the leaders in this region. You know, the Foreign Minister of Qatar Um he's accused Iran of targeting civilian centers, of targeting infrastructure and and it really hammers home that it has crossed some red lines that these countries are now looking at this from maybe a different perspective.

And I think that's a really good point, those red lines. Uh Paul, the US is trying to build a coalition of countries to help America and Israel in this war. How is this different from other times that the US had tri has tried to build coalitions? Well not least th that it's coming after the fact. Um I mean to listen to uh the Trump administration. um as to why now. It's because an opportunity arose, right? But w what's you know l th the easy comparison is to go back to two thousand three.

When the US went into Iraq and the weapons of mass destruction and all the talk and all the attempts to build the coalition of the willing, I guess it was called then, right? Test our memory. Long time ago, not that long ago. Um well none of that happened this time. Trump has gone around to the world after Trump starts the war. and says, Join us or I'm demanding that you join us.

Um he didn't make the case before. He hasn't really made the case since, I think it could be argued. Uh and so what do we get? We get Germany. Germany's uh defense minister yesterday saying We have a situation which we did not provoke, which we did not cause at all. So Germany's out. We heard from Kir the UK is unlike Tony Blair in two thousand three. later labeled uh you know, George W. Bush's lap dog uh for buying into it. Uh Keir Starmer's staying out.

So but you you know, who Trump today called he's what did he say? He's no Winston Churchill or something like that. Aaron Ross Powell It's his go-to line on Starmer these days. Aaron Ross Powell Exactly. But the big difference Or a big difference now is the absence of goodwill toward the United States from other countries. Again to think back to two thousand three.

Canada stayed out of the war on Iraq. Canadians broadly were strongly opposed to it. So Jean Chretien, Prime Minister at the time, uh had domestic Politics to worry about. He stayed out, but Canada sent troops to Afghanistan. And it could be argued that every Canadian set of boots on the ground allowed an American soldier who otherwise would have been in Afghanistan to be in Iraq. Let's just say. Canada there was goodwill between Canada and the United States, even though

Canada State a George W. Bush wanted as many countries as he could possibly get into the coalition of the willing. Right? So there was a lot of goodwill towards America post nine eleven. But that's absent now because Trump has antagonized the world. Trevor Burrus And and you know, the last year he's not only challenged these traditional relationships On the war in Afghanistan multiple on multiple occasions he's essentially suggested that NATO didn't do much.

that they stayed what is what was it, a little behind the the front lines. Outrage in Denmark over that, even in the UK you know, there are clearly repercussions to uh this kind of call it diplomacy or lack thereof. Perhaps we could dub this the coalition of the unwilling. Um You liked that, didn't you? But on Monday when he was speaking to reporters, Donald Trump talked about a number of specific allies, and we've referenced this.

seemingly keeping score. He needled France and suggested French President Emmanuel Macron might help out. He also took a shot at UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Prime Minister of UK, United Kingdom yesterday told me uh I'm meeting with my team. to make a determination. I said, You don't need to meet it with the team. You ha you're the Prime Minister. You can make your own. Why do you have to meet with your team to find out whether or not you're going to send some

Minesweepers to us or to send some boats. I said you'd have to meet with your team. Katie, who needs advisors? You know, I think it reveals a lot about how Donald Trump operates in his own White House, right? Um, we we've known when you take a look at how Canada had to deal with Donald Trump in his first term versus his second term.

We know that from behind the scenes in the first term there were people around Donald Trump who did act as traditional advisors and did advise him and understand we understand that whoever sort of had Donald Trump's ear last Whoever got that last piece of advice in there had huge influence and it could really help if, you know, Canada was trying to get something related to, you know, a trade deal or something like that.

But in Trump two point oh the Canadian experience is that it's Trump and Trump alone and that advisors can say anything they want. It's it comes down to Trump and Trump alone. So I think that just Reveals a little bit about what's going on in the White House in this moment. But it's almost as if the president is trying to publicly shame these leaders into joining the US. But at this point, given Trump's history and the way we see Trump uh interact with the United States.

Whether it's on domestic issues, whether it's on foreign affairs issues. This is how Donald Trump acts and it it says more about him than it does the leaders that are rebuffing his efforts to get more support. Add a little curiosity into your routine with TED Talks Daily, the podcast that brings you a new TED Talk every weekday. In less than fifteen minutes a day, you'll go beyond the headlines and learn about the big ideas shaping your future.

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Paul, considering America's military might, something that Trump has repeated and referenced many, many times over the last uh few weeks, why does he even want help? I think an argument can be made it's for the moral authority to to do this, right? The more The more members in the coalition, the more everybody is on the right side of history uh you could allow yourself to think.

Uh but you you don't know, right? When when Trump says that they've literally obliterated the Iranian forces and yet he still needs military help, not just the moral authority, but military help. to do this. Like I'm not sure what the world is is meant to take away from that. And I think the world is asking itself the same question. Like why are you demanding help from us when at the same time you say you don't need it? You're you're trying to shame us into it by saying, Well we help you

You know, and now it's your turn to help us, and yet you say you don't need it. Well what are we supposed to do? says the world to Donald Trump. And and I don't think the world knows the answer. And even when you think we you suggest as France did, that that you might find a way to do something around the edges.

Trump comes back and takes a shot at you anyway and says, Well, that's f you know, it's not perfect, but that's France, right? You know? But he gave he gave Macron an eight out of ten. On a scale of zero to ten? I'd say it's been an eight. Not perfect. But it's France. I'd take an eight out of ten. Um Katie, anything you want to add on that?

You know, I I feel like with Donald Trump and the conversations we have around Donald Trump, we we sort of get to a point where it doesn't matter what the situation is. we all come back to the same point that is We don't know. We don't know because even though this is a person who's been in American political life, he's this is the second term of his presidency. We have a whole huge history of how he operates and what he's gonna do.

And we're still at this point where things are so unpredictable that any time you sit down and have a conversation, whether it's in a podcast format, whether it's around the dinner table with your friends, whether it's at a bar, it doesn't matter whether whether it's with Canadians or with Americans.

that we get to this point where it's like, well, who knows what he's gonna do and and that's that's if there's one consistent that is the only thing that's it. People people have often said of Trump that he has spent his life getting his own way every single time. And and I think those people would wonder if that's part of what is is going on here as well. He wants it because he he always gets what he wants, and if he decides today

that he wants other countries to do his bidding, that's what he's gonna do. And if he decides tomorrow that he doesn't want them So be it. I have to say that that clip of Trump that we ran off the top where he's essentially admitting that he's kind of Keeping score that he's doing it to see who would be willing. It really gives me deja vu of the apprentice. Hey, look, you claim to be like me. The difference is I work hard. You've been lazy, you've been nothing.

Which of course It's a T V show that I never watched. By a man. Who now? Oh Paul, you're missing out.

It'll never come into the into the landscape of my job ever. Uh let's talk uh a little bit about Canada though, Katie. How is Canada responding? Are they getting the same calls that that Europe has been getting? So here's the thing that I think Ottawa might might be a little bit relieved about.

Um, Canada's defense minister was speaking to reporters yesterday and he said that there have been no specific requests made of Canada, which has sort of kept Canada out of sort of Donald Trump's line of sight in this moment.

Um but Canada has said that it has no plans to get involved in anything sort of on the offensive when it comes to military operations. But Canada is still not ruling out anything if it comes to defensive measures. If Canada is asked to help, whether it's a Gulf region state.

Um we know that the the question of if a NATO country is attacked, you know, is is Canada gonna stand up for Article five, that kind of thing. A and, you know, the Canadian position has been to sort of keep its options open and say that Canada does stand up for its allies, that kind of thing. So so in terms of the Canada has not been singled out by the Trump administration. Now that could be because Canada doesn't have necessarily maybe what Trump wants.

You know, our our colleagues Ashley Burke did a story that aired on the national on Tuesday or on Monday night that sort of outlined the the options that Canada could present if it was called upon to to do something. And it was pointed out by defense analysts that, you know, Canada's warships are old. Um that Canada doesn't necessarily have the kind of response systems that uh perhaps some Gulf countries might need as part of the missile defense programs here. Um so

Canada is not on the radar and and that might be a very good thing for Ottawa because it means that Donald Trump isn't taking aim at Canada like he usually is taking aim at Canada and because he keeps talking about, well, we're keeping score here, you know.

Is this gonna end up causing problems for these European countries when it comes to tariffs? Like what what what are what are the consequences going to be for not doing, you know, if Donald Trump says jump and your answer isn't how high, what are the consequences gonna be in this moment?

Although based off of his last post on social media, it seems he's maybe giving them the kind of get out of jail free card saying he doesn't need their help anymore. But you brought up NATO, Katie, and I think it's really important A lot of his frustration has been directed at NATO. And do we think it could have kind of lasting it? Well once again here we are. And when he consistently he campaigned uh on this kind of stuff and then he he kinda went away. And now it's c if he is

doesn't need NATO is a is another implication perhaps of what he's saying here. I I I think Especially as the war in Ukraine continues and Europe is stretched on that front, it's It's another unanswerable question as the truth, but it certainly feels as if Trump is hinting at a fracturing of NATO now and something that could worsen in the coming months. Don't forget that NA the NATO alliance was already facing some significant challenges because of what's going on in Ukraine, right?

Um Donald Trump when he was campaigning and and some Republicans were very against providing support. You know, the strength of NATO was already being challenged by the ongoing Russia's war in Ukraine and now we're seeing it tested by, you know, arguably the most powerful member of this security alliance. And

Donald Trump understands that that he's got some leverage in this moment and what does Donald Trump want in any scenario for any situation is leverage. But here again, here we are talking about all of this stuff back to Trump Trump the campaigner.

W and Trump the president when it was America first, right? And why are we fighting wars in other parts of the world w when we have to put uh food on the table in America and we have to make lives in America better? The argument, the Trump side argument is th that that this uh the Iran Uh what does he call it? Uh an an indemnity.

Um very similar to the military operation that Vladimir Putin was running in Ukraine, right? Is making uh lives in America safer and more secure. That's that's the Trump argument for it. But it is a complete hundred and eighty degrees from what he campaigned on in terms of foreign conflicts. Be and not least because he went in and and started this. Yeah, uh it it presents I think on the domestic front a lot of questions and I think we are going to be talking about them for months.

and months to come. We'll all be watching to see what happens off the coast of Iran in the days ahead. Thanks again for your perspectives. But before we say goodbye, I've got a quick listener question for us. Sandrico Provo is wondering about the US administration's stance on tariffs and the conflict in Iran. He writes quote

It seems as twenty twenty six goes on, this administration is quickly becoming more bold and aggressive. My question is what impact would possible midterm losses have on the administration's ability to maintain its current posture. Katie, over to you first.

So, um, if the Republicans lose control of the House, it makes it harder for Donald Trump to pass legislation. But the big thing we're gonna sort of single out here is Congress is supposed to act as sort of like part of the check and balance system of power on the executive branch, and because Donald Trump does a lot of what he's doing through executive order. He is finding ways to implement his agenda without using the traditional levers of power.

Um, one thing that might sort of end up being a check or balance on his power is if Democrats get control of the House. They could they could hold impeachment hearings and or they could start the impeachment process.

Um will Donald Trump end up being, you know, removed from office? Likely not, because you gotta get it could pass in the House. If Democrats have control of the House, they have a majority, they can pass impeachment in the House, then they send it over to the Senate, and then they gotta have a trial.

That is something that might embarrass Trump, that might, you know, be a distraction, maybe slow him down a bit, but is it gonna get in the way of his agenda? Y you would think yes, but Donald Trump has found ways to get around roadblocks. Same. Same as what Katie said. Look, the Trump playbook uh uh has been to test the limits of executive power, to go around

uh Congress. And that will continue no matter what happens in the midterms. If they get pushback in the courts, which by the way they anticipate, they'll go to court, and if they win in court, great. If they lose in court, they'll try something else. And that will continue. If

Uh Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives, which is predicted, it complicates things. The reason Donald Trump desperately wants to maintain control of the House is investigation, investigation, investigation, and impeach, impeach, impeach.

Only one president has been impeached twice. That's all that's Donald Trump. He could he almost certainly they will try again uh to impeach him a third time. Katie's right to say it'll he'll never get convicted in the Senate, not gonna happen. Bottom line, if Trump loses control, Republicans lose control. of Capitol Hill. Uh the executive power

Uh tests, I guess you could call them, uh will continue, but life gets a whole lot more complicated for Donald Trump. Yeah, I think it just kind of it kind of gunks up his operations, right? It i i it slows things down a little bit, it makes it a little more difficult for him to work all of the levers of course of government. But as you said He has already demonstrated an ability and desire really to kind of circumnavigate Congress as much as possible. Gunks up. Gunks up. Yeah.

It is today, Paul. It is today. And on that note, like Willie is wearing his work jacket and he gets gunk all over it. Exactly, Katie. Thank you. And thank you for noticing my jacket all the way from Doha. There you go. Really appreciate the question, Sandrico. And if you have any questions for us or feedback about what you're hearing, send an email to Washington Pod all one word at cbc.ca. That's Washingtonpod at cbc.ca.

Or leave a comment for us on Spotify. And don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcast app. Thank you, Katie. Thank you, Paul. Katie, stay safe out. Thanks Willie. Thanks, Katie. Bye. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcast.