Hello, Vhotonomics fans. It's Allegra Stratton. I want to tell you about our sister show in the City. It features me with Bloomberg TV host Francine Laqua and our head of Media, David Merritt. The show takes a closer look at specific stories that are driving conversations in financial capitals across the world, and it showcases the brilliant reporting that
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I'm Francie Laqua, I'm David Merritt, and I'm Alegra Stratton.
We're back in the studio. It's back to school week for lots of people, back to school vibes around London. Don't you think it.
Feels like back to school? All three of us in the studio.
I've just come back from America and the political cycle is heating up. There's a lot of drama and tension, and what caught my eye was this already that Americans are now swarming to London for properties. And I've heard this firsthand actually from friends in the US. People are looking around the world in London really stands out as a place where if all hell were loose in the US for whatever reason, this is increasingly the haven that they're looking at.
But people come up to and say, hey, you're you're a Londoner. What's it like.
My entirely unscientific survey of New Yorker's residential intentions. I mean, you know that there's a lot of worry in America about the political situation, the social situation. You know, gun crime is a big concern. The drug use on the streets is there for everybody to see. And of course we've got this big election coming up and people have said to me, we're seriously thinking of relocating our families.
And then, having heard that, when I read this great story by our very own Damien Shepherd saying that actually the Americans are propping up the luxury end of the housing market. We've actually got the data in that to prove my very unscientific survey.
Of New York is there you go, the science behind the hunch. It's Damion Shepherd, and he wrote a piece saying look, US buyers are snapping up some of these pricey digs in London. So on today's show, let's deep dive into what's behind an American rescue of London's battered luxury property market.
Welcome to the City of London.
The City of the City of London.
The.
Mind, the gap between the tree and the financial heart of the country, the City, the City.
Welcome to in the.
City, band, clear of the doors. Damien, Welcome to in the city.
Hello. I mean, I go for a lot of coffees with London breakers, and the one thing they need right now is Americans. I don't particularly like using this word, but the top end of the London market is resembling something like a blood bath at the moment. Not the way you have that level of sympathy for the billionaires often, but attrack these transactions that happen fifteen, twenty million, thirty five million, and this year they've just fallen off a cliff.
There's a lot of concerns among the ultra rich, which is forcing them to look to other areas like Milan and Dubai. And there's lots of reasons why the Americans are a crucial clientele at the moment for the London broker.
So scaring off most buyers at this end. And it is this the nervousness about what might be coming under the new labor government. So you know, with a lot of we don't know any of this to do it yet, but there's a lot of speculation about changes to capital gains tax, who knows, maybe something on stamp duty. There's the non doms situation, which has already shifted from the
previous government, but perhaps some more measures there. So high network individuals who used to make London their home, they've been talking about leaving and you're actually seeing that now in the property market.
We are. And the thing you mentioned now that's so crucial is non doms. I mean, this is the term that's striking fear through the ultra rich in London at the moment, and that's what is you know, prompting them to look at other destinations like Milan and Dubai. The reason why the Americans aren't quite as susceptible to this is there's big currency discounts at play at the moment in the London market. So there's already big discounts happening
when that buyer and seller expectation gap closes. But then when you bring in the strong dollar versus the week pound, this is you know, giving the Americans an incentive to say, you know what, the tax situation doesn't look as great as it did in the past, but I've actually got a bit of a you know, incentive here to make this deal happen. And they're not dallying in the way
that other international buyers are. And that's one of the reasons why the breakers are prioritizing the Americans at the moment.
So some international buyers looking elsewhere and the Americans stepping in and filling.
That gap exactly. I mean, like I said, we're not seeing many deals above the twenty million pound mark, but one recently, for example, was a thirty two million pound deal in notting Hill and the buyer was an American moving his family over to start business here. The same broker told me that roughly a year ago there was an eighteen million pound deal in Kensington of a family that moved over. One of the main reasons was gun crime and concerns about sort of the social and political
situation over in the US. So there's lots of lots of factors at play. Here, but it's certainly trendissing.
And those properties, the thirty two and then the eighteen million, were they discounted already because the top of the market's not that confident or so were they picking up a bargain and they were moving because of that, or were they happy they paid at the top end.
They're picking up a bargain either way because of that currency discounts, if we're calling it a bargain, not my bargain.
Two for a price of one. But are these houses that are also almost doubled in price in the last ten years.
They are, Yes. So you know, if you look at the long term growth of these mansions, which are often bought as an investment and sometimes left empty for a very long time, their appreciation has been massive over the past twenty years. But but still, you know, everyone, even the ultra rich, they bargain. And this is one of the reasons why despite the fact we're seeing this blood bath, as I possibly regretsively called it earlier, there's still customers.
Yeah, six percent of all very high end so that's what more than twenty million or ten million houses are bought by Americans. Yeah, that was the stat last year. I mean it's massive.
Why so, I mean, if we take it over to the US, We've spoken lots about the currency discounts at play here. One word which everyone hates at that end of the market is uncertainty. Now the US election is definitely playing a part here. So when Donald Trump was leading in the polls, there was breakers telling me there's people already making plans. There's a nervousness about again that word,
the uncertainty of a Donald Trump second presidency. Now we look more in a deadlock between Harris and Trump, but still not knowing which way the election is going to go, is you know, causing nervousness around policy and prompting buyers to look elsewhere. So there's issues around the political spectrum. Gone crime comes into it. I've heard about drug use
concerns over in the US, levies on assets. There's plenty of issues at play here, and it's just it's just those little things which are pushing the US buyers more than internationals from elsewhere to make the move.
You wonder, don't you, Because of course, a few weeks ago it seemed like Donald Trump was streets ahead, and then the whole race, the political races turned on its head. In a sense, more uncertainty has been brought into the system because now it really is a bit of a coin toss who's going to win. You know, they're in a statistical tie, and so people, I guess A're hedging
their bets in their environment and wondering maybe London. You know, we've got pretty boring politics now here, haven't we relatively. I mean we've been throughy you.
Well, there's a heart We don't know though, on this new government and what they'll do in that budget October thirty.
Ye is that is very true. We don't know what them at well, we know what she's not going to do. We know she's not going to raise income tax, we know she's not going to raise vat unless she really does break up promises. But what's left are increases on the wealthy, aren't they? Presumably that's what everyone is assuming.
I could be proved wrong. But how come that isn't factoring into these rich Americans thinking Tamian that well, actually you've got a new government at places UK, very stable as they may be, but they're going to come after my wealth, aren't they.
There is definitely nervousness around that. I think you know what we're seeing here is that nervousness for a different international buyer who's not got these incentives currency wise and discount wise, is going to cause them to say, do you know what, No, no to London, I'm going to go to Dubai. I'm going to go to Milan. It's just these extra incentives that are coming through with the Americans, which is allowing them to prop up such a depleted
market at the moment. So, I mean, like you said, our politics does appear a lot more boring than the US at the moment, but that October budget is crucial, and if we have this conversation again afterwards, I'm sure there'll be many more factors at play.
I'm curious about the wider effect of this as well, because you know, yes, so the Americans are in the sweet sport. It looks London looks appealing if you're an Americans sitting on capital that can afford a big slice of London realistic. But the rest of the world, did you say, it seems to be a band in London and the non Doms, which again was started by the previous government, that change. Is there any hope or light
at the end of the tunnel. Should we get a range of sort of modest measures from Rachel Reeves in the autumn budget that some of these people may return, or do you think that flow to the rest of Europe or to places like Dubai. Is the trend that's going to continue for the yple future.
I think, without trying to sound like an estate agent, and the appeal of London is endless. I think that you know the schools considering a job change, you know that the schools are fantastic, and there's a lot of area as well. Of course, yes, yes, there's lots of pockets where you know internationals will go, and there's some fantastic schools and greens. But I mean London is, you know, a financial center. It is the finance hub of Europe.
So it's always going to be a destination. And I think we're talking right now about out short term to sort of median term struggles. At the long term looks good for London.
So if you're a top end London property broker dealing with these multi million pound houses, are you rooting for Donald Trump to win some more business your way? So we're obviously impartial on this podcast about the outcome of the election.
But I mean possibly. I mean, look, there is differing opinions on this. I mean some breakers have said, you know, Trump is actually very good for business and wealth generation over in the US. So this isn't black and white, Donald Trump, Everyone's going to leave. But there is certainly brokers telling me that people when Trump was leading in the polls before Harris came in, there was definitely people plotting a move to London for that exact reason. So
let's have a look at the data. I mean, the last time Trump was president, we saw a twenty percent increase compared to Obama's term in London in Americans moving to London. There was a strong dollar to week pound discount a play. But there is now too.
There seem to be a few signs, particularly in the last week I would say, of possibly a bit of a turning point for the UK housing market. We've talked about a lot on this podcast about the difficult year or two we've had our verier in John Steppeck, of course, the ultimate oracle on the housing market, called it last week his newsletter. He's the author of the Money Distilled newsletter. He's got the headline the UK housing market is back from the crash, do you agree?
So? I think the context John was talking about was in terms of transactions, so you know a lot of people. I'll be quite honest, I was really hoping that house prices were going to fall dramatically so I'd finally be able to afford somewheer to live. But what actually happened was transactions fell off a cliff. No deals were happening. They are starting to creep back in now, which is a good sign for the overall health of the housing market.
Mortgage rates are steadily coming down. Things look in a better place. We didn't quite have the crash in the sense of a house price crash. John's certainly right. We have now looked to turn a corner.
And and of course we had Doria, the Australian real estate listing company bidding for right Move, or at least expressing interest, sorry for right Move, which is the housing listings website we all like to pour over secretly and.
Secretly.
But that's a great sign, isn't it that you know listings might start to pick up that Right Move is a is a great business that added a billion pounds to its market value. And when this news came out on Monday.
Well, Dave, what you said there was interesting because you know, all of us looked at each other when you mentioned about going on to Right Move and sort of being nosey, and that shows that regardless almost of the state of the housing market, we're all nosy, we're all on Right Move,
and when deals aren't happening, there's listings going on. The supply of homes for sale is actually really high in terms of compared to the short term at the moment, so Right Move is almost slightly insulated from what's happening true in terms of deals in the housing market, because people are renting, people are noisy, people are looking at their future prospects for home buying, even if they think
it's a few years down the line. So it's an interesting one and I think the fact that they are kind of insulated in that way makes them a decent bet.
But I think we're in a slightly schizophrenic August September period because you've, as you say, like things feel like they're unblocking a bit, with the sense that rates are coming down potentially more slowly than people would like. But that's the direction of travel. But you've got the government saying be afraid, be very afraid. All of us are sort of political analysts and observers. You do not know the extent to which you are being spun, so you
are supposed to be very afraid. And then when the budget eventually happens, you're like, oh, that wasn't so bad after all. Let's let's hit the shops and hit right move again or whether they're doing it because that's what they're going to do, and they just want you to be very aware. So it's so I think that with that kind of uncertainty there probably will be more of a chill than necessarily the economics would suggest.
Yeah, I mean, I mean it makes sense. Doesn't so get us all worried? They've just taken out it's classic.
Yeah, the concern would be that they're not. It's not expectation management.
It's the real thing.
You know, we're in a different situation, aren't we. The last time Laby came in with the landslide, we had the Blair administration and you know famously talking about being very comfortable with the falthy rituals.
As long as they pay their taxes.
As long as they pay their taxes, but we'll find out, won't we in a few weeks, Like how friendly is this labor government to wealthy Americans who want to come in and buy thirty two million pound houses in London?
Damon, thank you so much.
It's been a pleasure.
Thanks for listening to this week's in the City from Bloomberg. This episode was hosted by me Frontine Laquell with David Merritt and Alect gra Stratton. It was produced by Summer SNI, production support from Isabella Ward and sound designed by Moses and m Brendan Frantz Newman is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Head of Podcasts. Special thanks to Damian Shepherd. Please subscribe, rate and review, or wherever you listen to podcasts.