"They Didn't Think This Through" - Ex CIA Operator, Mike Baker

Hej, det är jag från riksbyggen här. Ursäkta att jag avbryter mitt i din egen tid med podd och allt. Jag vill bara säga att vi har massor av bostäder som passar alla olika sätt att leva. Det betyder att du kan få ditt drömboende precis som du vill ha det. Men jag gissar att det du helst vill just nu är att fortsätta lysta på din podd. Sen kan du då. I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking.

I'm just saying that I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through. They were probably a little intoxicated from the Venezuela experience. I don't mean to put too fine a term on it, but it's a massive fuck up, isn't it? There's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base. Yes. Yeah. Is that gonna last if this drags on? No. That support even from the base is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer.

One of the i issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat. Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror. My bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf, who get triggered by this.

Mike Baker, welcome back to Trigonometry. Thank you very much. Thank you. Appreciate it. Great to have you. An interesting time to have you, obviously. It's it seems that way. There's a lot going on. Yeah, there is a lot going on. Before we get into what's gonna gonna happen, what is your analysis of how we got here? Uh well, we got here because for almost fifty years, right? Um

the Iranian regime has kind of stuck to their guns, right? They've been remarkably consistent, right, over that time. To be fair, they've only had two supreme leaders. Now maybe they've got a third. We don't know because no one's seen uh the new leader, Mustaba, but After roughly fifty years of um creating instability in the Middle East. uh and refusing to negotiate in good faith about their nuclear program, continuing to ramp up their missile uh uh program

Uh and then, you know, finally slaughtering yet again, but this time in more numbers, thousands of their own citizens during the last round of of demonstrations. I think that was Kind of it. That was the thing that put them over the top. I i along with the fact that they just refused to budge off their negotiating tactic, which was we're not talking about anything other than a element, a small element of their uh nuclear program.

Were they not willing to like I don't know what the technical term is, but basically to merge the uranium so that it was at a low enrichment level? There's this perception that intelligence is like the movies or the beach books, right? It's all this or it's all that, right? The reality is with Iran it's been a very heavy lift over all these years.

to understand with clarity what is going on there within their programs, particularly their missile and their nuclear programs. What they were talking about was taking that sixty percent enriched uranium and there is no Peaceful civilian purpose for 60% enriched uranium. There just isn't, right? And so they were talking about, well, we could we could reduce that down to 20%. The problem is with the enrichment process getting to sixty percent

Getting to twenty percent even. You've done most of the heavy lift. Moving it on to ninety percent or thereabouts where it's considered weapons grade, um, that's the speediest part. So Five percent, four percent, if there was intelligence that said all these years that's all they had because they keep claiming that they've got a civilian peaceful purpose for this, then Eu acho...

things would have been different at this point. But um people talk about, well my God, the Trump administration, they've they started this conflict during the middle of negotiations. Reality was That was i it was negotiations a name only. There was no real serious effort, much like they've done in the past. They were just looking to buy time. Mm. And The the question is now whether regime change was ever realistic or gonna happen, right?

What what's your assessment of this? Because we we had a bunch of people over the course of the last week on the show. Um and you know, some of the arguments have been forward put forward is like Regime change isn't gonna work and never was gonna work and and therefore this is a big mistake.

Well toppling regime a regime, any regime, um by air operations only is that's a low percentage shot. So you can you know, lots of things can be true at the same time. Like Personally, I can think that it's about time that this regime leaves the planet, right, and gives the people of Iran uh a better future. You know, some some form of government that could do that. I can believe that you're never gonna get long term peace and stability in the Middle East.

as long as this particular regime exists, right? Because their stated objective constantly has been one thing the destruction of Israel. They built their proxy network for that purpose. Proxies all have the same objective and Frankly, most of the regional actors we're starting to see that now would much rather see this regime go. Okay. I can believe all of that. But at the same time I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through. Right. Right? And that

If you've watched this um I had a I had a good friend who was one of the hostages during the when the takeover, when the Shaw fell. If you've watched this regime for all these years. It's not hard to understand where they are now, right? You you watched them over the years build a system, right, between the the the clerical authority, the the political authority, however you want to refer to it, and the military and the IRGC that was very robust.

could withstand something like this over the years, right? So you've got a commander in the IRGC. Well now they've got three others in line who they know will take that person's place if something happens to them, right? This is how they've developed this over the years. So I'm just uh you know, I I think that perhaps Um I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking. I'm just saying that I think there were people who thought this was going to be easier.

Than it than it was. And that's surprising. I think there were people who didn't see that the Strait of Cormuz would become the thing. Right. The l it's the only leverage point they've really got. Right. And so to think that somehow straight up Cormuz wouldn't become uh you know, uh closed in a sense, not officially closed, but it's closed for all intents and purposes. Um

That to me is would be I'd like to think everyone's thought this through, I guess is what I'm saying. It doesn't appear that way because there still seem to be some people in Washington surprised that Oh my God, you know, you what do you mean we've shut down the flow of twenty percent of the world's oil, LNG, you know, along with everything else that goes through the strait. So that's what I mean by I'm not sure that this was And how is that possible?

I mean the the United States has the biggest intelligence operation in the world, the biggest military in the world, the the the most military planners in the world. You sound like the the US President. We've got the biggest military. You do. You do. Th and and therefore it is this is the bit that doesn't sound like the president of the United States. It's extraordinary that we might be sitting here weeks into a conflict going, I can't believe they didn't think it through the the

How how does that happen? Yeah, uh it's it's it's a great question. Um I think there's probably a lot of people trying to think about that, but look if I the the Pentagon has a lot of smart people and a lot of mid and senior level people who came up through the Afghan experience, right? Combat operations, Afghanistan and Iraq.

real world experience, right? Now, does that mean that they are listened to? I don't know. I'm not sitting in the room. I'm just saying that I I can't imagine that there weren't briefings where someone pointed to a big map of the Strait of Hormuz and said, you know, it's about twenty one miles wide, but it's m actually much narrower because of the depths and because of the the corridors for the shipping lanes.

Here's what they've done in the past. They've closed it before. Uh they've threatened to close it constantly. We all knew that. How are we going to prevent that from happening? But now we're in a position where we're saying, well geez, we sure like China to come in with her and help, or we'd like we're asking other countries to come in and help. That seems to be an indication that perhaps There was some surprise.

And maybe it was because they thought the regime was gonna collapse. You know, once we th we had very good intelligence about that initial strike, uh on some of the leadership, including the Supreme Leader and maybe there was this feeling

Because people always think they can do it better, right? Every generation thinks they can do something better. Maybe that was part of it. And they thought that we'll we'll get regime change. They were probably a little intoxicated from the Venezuela experience. So I mean It's I don't mean to put too fine a term on it, but it's a massive f up, isn't it? Well uh it depends on it depends on how you define cup. It depends on what the word is is as with all Clinton said.

But who by the way I think is a a very smart individual. Um you know, the I uh I guess full disclosure, I'm a centrist Republican. I like national security, like um uh secure borders, like smart immigration policy, like fiscal responsibility, you know, uh i those things often don't come around very often. So uh it is a If you define which is what's happening, the goalposts are moving, if you define uh victory as a significant degrading of their military capability.

You know, their missile program, for example. It's not really a f up because what you're looking to do is every administration's done the same thing. They've just put lipstick on this pig and and hoped that somebody else would deal with it. So if you if you define it as okay, we have now kicked the ball further down the field than any other administration

They're still in power, right, in in some form. It's probably a much hardened uh administration now run more by the IRGC than it ever has been. But If you define that as a as a as a win, which I think is what we're gonna see, um, along with some additional damage to their nuclear program, which again continues to be difficult in terms of assessing, um, then Okay, it's not a complete.

Uh but if you defined it as we're going to remove this regime, then yeah, you're not winning. And we're not winning in another sense because we've been talking about the straight off war moves and that is Iran's Trump card. Just talk a little bit what it actually means for the global economy. If it continues with the shutdown. Or if Iran continues with the shutdown I should say. Yeah, if they and it doesn't take much. That's the thing, right? And and they it it

Because what you're doing is you're impacting perception. If you convince the insuring businesses out there, the insurance companies and the shipping industry that it's just not worth that effort to haul that tanker through there, then they've won, even if all they've done is is hit maybe a dozen and a half vessels over all this period of time. It doesn't take much at all. So

Closing what's that one fifth or so of of oil flows through the strait. Everybody's been talking about that. Now we're all experts on the straight straight. Uh but also LNG, right, is is an important aspect of this. For Europe, right, in particular, for for Asia. Um explain what L N G is. Uh liquidified natural gas. Okay. Right. So Uh and then all the other things that go through there.

Right, for food breakers. Yeah, look at you. I've been doing the reading. And helium, which we use for cooling microchip fabrication facilities, like there's some this is real impact.

It's a re it's a real significant impact. People can feel it. Um uh in the US, for example, people people see it at the pump, right? That's the that's the first place they see it. Which is why suddenly the straight became so Right, um important because they have in the US they have midterm elections coming up in November. And um there's no easier way to get your ass kicked in in an election than to be responsible for uh spiraling gas prices at the fuel pump. So this that's what it comes down to.

So now the focus is on how do we prevent that. Again, you would argue that perhaps that would have been here in this playbook that you'd pull out as soon as the the bombs started dropping because you knew that's where the Iranians would go'cause they can't match the US and Israel toe to toe for military capabilities. So Uh yeah, it's it is um likely that The US is going to try to figure out a way to negotiate a settlement, if they can figure out who to talk to.

So that they don't have to begin the process of escorting. tankers and ships through the strait and so that they don't have to think about taking Carg Island, which is responsible for the Iranians anyway, for kicking nine out of ten barrels of oil out of the country, right? So that's a very important site for them. They don't want to do that, right? If you start escorting ships through the strait, saying oh the straits

Yeah, it's open. Yay. Yeah, now now we want gas prices to go down. Well, for how long are you going to do that for? That's very costly. And all it takes is one drone, right, um, to hit one of those vessels. And you're right back where you started. So that sounds a bit like an indefinite effort. And and and and I don't think the administration wants to get engaged in that. So I think that if they can figure out who to talk to and whomever they talk to has Some level of agreement from other

factions within that government now that's kinda operating in a in a fashion that is much less top down, then they'll probably go that direction. It seems to me that Iran have got a stranglehold

with the Strait of Hormuz on the global economy, haven't they? Yeah, in a sense they do, yeah. They do. And that's And again, that's that's why I keep going back to the same thing, which is how do you not see that when you've got recent examples where they've used it for that purpose? Right. So you you knew this was going to happen. When did they use it before? Um it was what are we in uh twenty twos clever I am, twenty twenty-six. Um

I wanna say twenty nineteen, I think was the last time I maybe I'm maybe completely. So they did it regularly. Well I don't want to say regularly, but they've done it before. Okay. And they've also threatened to do it regularly. Again, d I keep going back to that same thing. Um

It's all hindsight. I get that. And I'm not privy to the intelligence that the White House has, right? So when they talk about there was an imminent threat, I don't know. None of us here know, right? And and and unless you're in those briefings and have access to it. And that information is very close held, right? Intelligence is compartmentalized. So just because you have someone who had clearances and was in a position

They may not know sh about what's happening over here. You know what you're supposed to be doing, right? If you're in responsible for you know, some operation in uh you know, in in uh former Soviet Union, for instance. You're not gonna know crap about what's going on over here'cause you're not you you have a need to know. Um consider to be an imminent threat, as they put it. One scenario could have been that they worked a little bit closer with allies.

And they gamed out what we're going to do when the Iranians start to create havoc in the in the strait. And then you got people on board, including the Gulf states, obviously. The Gulf states are are, you know, they won't say it publicly, but they're probably, you know, happy as pigs and shit, right, over the way this could be going.

I think they're getting worried because they probably also thought maybe we got a chance to change the government here. Because the worrying thing is for me, and again, push back on this, this I'm just a regular job, blah blah blah. But you look at The Strait of Hamu is shutting down and you go immediately there is a timeline here. This can't carry on indefinitely. And Iran are the one holding the cards. Because

Th we need it opened. If not, we're going to be in dire straits economically and by m we I mean the globe. And eventually pressure is going to come to bear on the Americans. And then they're gonna have to capitulate. Or am I projecting? No, no, I don't think you're projecting. I think you're they'll they'll capitulate because of politics. because of the midterm election. And because then they don't want it down looking down the road, you know, th I will say that in in the US

uh people don't tend to have a long-term vision in politics, right? They're looking at whatever election is right in front of them. But there will be some looking at 2028 in the White House. So this, you know, this is being played out um from that lens. I don't think you're going to see again, I don't think you're going to see a prolonged effort here. Mm-hmm. I think all this talk you're hearing from the White House

uh about you know we're having these negotiations. Part of that is kind of the the the stuff that Trump does, right? Well you should never take uh the president literally. Right? But people do and it drives them crazy, right? Because they they take him literally you think, no, no, no, no. He's just throwing sh at the wall sometimes to see what sticks, right?

Right. That's what he does. You know, you punch somebody in the nose, you get punched back, you throw at the wall, you see what sticks, through go that route, come up with a deal very transactional. So I think they're trying to figure out, but th again this problem is that the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, right, has has found themselves where they wanna be, which is in a more you know uh

uh direct command role. I think the clerics have realized that perhaps that they're taking a back seat, but they'll continue the optic of of running the show, you know, and and the politicians You know, that who knows, right? I mean now they're talking about The speaker of the parliament being the guy that maybe they're talking to. And he's saying, nobody's talking to me. I we're not having any of these discussions.

Shouldn't be a surprise. If you're having discussions, maybe you you know, you prefer people not to think you are, right? So I get that. If there's something going on behind the scenes, I don't know. But I do think they're going to be desperate to try to make that happen because you're right. Otherwise, down the road, right, um, the only

So far, the only country that's really not worried about this in a big way is China. They're the only ones getting oil uh out of the strait. Almost all those tankers that are going through with Iranian oil are going to China. So You know, and once again they're fairly delighted that this has preoccupied the US. Gives them a really good look at our military capabilities and the hardware and where they're lacking uh in terms of their modernization.

So but it's a nothing happens in a bubble, right? Everything's connected, so that's why I appear to be rambling. Most people think they're informed. In reality, they're selectively informed. Modern media doesn't just tell stories. It quietly decides which ones you never hear about at all. That's why I use Ground News. It's the only app that compares how the same story is covered across the political world.

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Which is no you're not rambling at all. And but because what we're dealing with here effectively is unknowns. And then you see how America bombed oh no America, sorry, Iran bombed the gas field of Raslafan and you go They're responsible I think for around fifteen percent of all the world's or gas, and you're going, I mean If it wants to be a little bit more.

Iran can literally plunge us into a global economy. If it just decides to go a global recession. Sorry, yeah, global recession. Apologies. It can plunge us into a global recession if it just wants to go all in. If it if it you know, I and and who knows? Maybe th I guess I would hope that's one of the scenarios they've mapped out, which is that what if they consider this an existential threat, then maybe they just say, let's see what happens. And they and they you know

I mean they've already kind of in a way done that, right? Look, you have to remember a lot of those regional actors were on Iraq's side during the Iran-Iraq war. So uh uh you know, Iran the the the Islamic Republic hasn't forgotten that. You know, they d they're not under the impression that those countries are are on their side in some fashion. Most of them

tried over the past handful of years, right, to try to have some level of detente or diplomacy or something to see whether that would work. I think most of them feel like that didn't work out. Um and so there is this this notion that look if they if they really feel as if this is it and their backs against the wall, then you know, what what are they going to try to do? Well look, uh you know, what's their capabilities?

At this point they've been well degraded, right? But it doesn't take much to blow up some power plants, blow up some desalination plants, blow up, you know, some energy infrastructure and they've got all that mapped out. Um Amazing thing is they've been getting um targeting data from both the Russians and the Chinese. Um which is which is kind of fascinating.

And the White House has been a little dismissive of of the reporting that says the Russians have been assisting, not just in targeting data, but also in in how to how to make those uh drone attacks more lethal, more uh you know, more efficient, more effective. And because they've obviously had a fair amount of experience now over the past four years of Putin's invasion. So

That again, you know, I I what I'm what I'm trying to say, I o I'm always trying to point out that it's not just here, you know. Sure. You know, it's happening all over. Well and look as someone who's very pro Ukraine, I nonetheless will say this. I mean The Russians will say, Look at America, how much they're helping Ukraine. You're giving them all the satellite information, you're giving them weapons, you're giving them money, you're giving the

So like why wouldn't we help Iran in the situation? And uh th this is the concern. I mean, you talk about uh what would happen if they just the the escalation threat is what I think a lot of people are rightly worried about because if the administration goes harder, Iran is forced to go harder. And then, you know, when we had Robert Papon, that's kind of one of the things he explained is if say you have a marine attempt at a landing on Kag Island or to try and take control of the Strait

That forces Iran to take this more seriously. They then destroy all kinds of stuff around the Middle East. And also in their own country,'cause they're like, Well, what do we have to lose? Yeah, I think th th this idea, look, they've they've got I believe a second marine expeditionary unit heading out there. Um each one each of those

Uh Mews carry about what, uh twenty five hundred uh Marines and then another couple thousand sailors or so to support those those operations. They're really a self contained assault force, right? Um And much like we had two carrier strike groups. on on target. You don't do that just to posture.

Right. You're not doing this just because you wanna show what you can do. Right. So that was an indication, along with the fact that they had gotten so many tankers out there, right, which they obviously are key to all this aerosol operation's gotta be re able to refuel. Um The the fact that you're getting those Marines on on target, you have to imagine

You know, there's a contingency plan likely for an assault on Clark Island. Now again, I think they're gonna do everything possible to try to avoid that and declare a big win. Right. And then and then back out of this thing. Um and whether that happens or not. Iran may have a say in whether that happens or not. Right. Uh but if you put boots on the ground in Carga Island,

doesn't take much. They may the Iranian regime may decide, okay, well we're not going after um the Saudis, we're not going after UAE, U because those th those players, not just them, but the other players also They're very close to to pushing their chips into the center of the table and saying, that's it. We're going from a defensive posture to an offensive posture. So they may stop short of that, but they will definitely target uh US military on Carga Island. And it

You could almost piss on Carg Island from the shoreline, right? I mean it's you're not talking about a massive, you know, complex issue. They just have to be successful a handful of times. And then you've got the issue of the US and the population, which is already still so a lot of people have forgotten it, but there's still a lot of folks fatigued from the global war on terror.

So you start losing more personnel because now we're in something that doesn't look anything like what they were told it was going to be at the outset. Yeah, now now you got a problem. And the Iranian regime, they're not stupid, right? A lot of them are dead, but they're the ones that are living are not stupid. They will have Thought this through. Right.

Uh one thing I wanna talk about, Mike, uh w which we haven't addressed yet is you you talked about uh the US allies in the region. One of them is Israel. And just for people who who may be coming to this fresh who don't know our backstory with it,

After October seventh, we really didn't comment very much on on on Israel and that situation for about a year. The only thing we've re ever really said, we've interviewed people who are very pro Israel, very pro Palestine, somewhere in the middle, everybody.

And where we came down on it among you know, among other things, this kind of The one thing we've always said about Israel We don't want to be hypocrites and be like, Oh, look how terrible what they're doing in Gaza is'cause I know if our country had been attacked in the way that they were on October seventh, we would have bombed the sh out of anyone who stood next to anyone who walked the dog of anyone who's had anything to do with.

Yeah. That's a fact. And the dog. And the dogs, yeah. Right. And we wouldn't have given a sh about any of it. So I'm not gonna sit here in comfort and safety, isolated from Hamas and Hezbollah and all of that and tell Israelis how they should do this. You know, th we would have done the same.

But even we are starting to look at this and we're kinda going I mean Israel has got its own you know, BB Netanyahu as the leader of Israel. You talk to Israelis now, a lot of Israelis are like Netanyahu is kind of You know, he's off the rails a little bit here. And it's becoming very clear, by the way, that Israel and the United States have different agendas here. And

It looks to me, I may be completely wrong, but I'm just saying what I'm thinking in the moment. And Francis and I talk about this a lot'cause it's a thing that we think about. It looks like to many people now, and when we talk to people in America, like normal people, not people who are like anti Israel or anti Semitic, people who are balanced and reasonable. Are kind of going, well

In this conflict it looks to us like the US has drawn in to something that's bad for the US while Israel is getting kind of a lot of what it wanted here. Is that a fair assessment? Uh it's an assessment. I I don't know. Well no, I don't know that I'm qualified to say whether it's A fair assessment or not, right? Um, because again, I not being privy to the conversations that took place, you know, leading up to this. You know, yes, you've got a lot of folks that say.

Oh my god, Israel dragged him into this into this war. Yeah, I don't think that's true because I don't imagine Israel can like a small country, drag a big country. It doesn't make any sense. But what I what I'm saying is something else, which is from an Israeli perspective, just thinking rationally, I may be totally wrong, I'm not an expert.

Bombing the sh out of Iran is always a good thing. Iran is a regional rival, uh it funds Hamasid, funds Hezbollah, it funds the Houthis. So you're degrading their ability, the ballistic missile program, their drones. Right. Wonderful. Irrespective of nuclear weapons, irrespective of regime change, you just you just mow the law. But the United States is put itself and the global economy now at r in at risk in some ways.

For an objective that matters a lot less, I would argue, to the United States. Yeah, I think uh yeah, be just proximity, right? I mean, look, i y you know, the Israel's uh dealing with an existential threat, right? They're surrounded by by this problem. Yeah, right. And so yeah, you're right in in a sense, right? The US so but but US administration

they tend to sometimes they they will act in a way that you look and you think well why why are they doing this, right? Why do they feel as if they need to do this? There's some moral obligation or there's some desire to spread democracy or whatever whatever the r the reason may be. Um And so I you know, again, staying away from this whole idea of, you know, Israel and what their their intention I think here is um is not to not to bring this to a close.

in the same way that that uh the US is is looking to do, right? They're not facing the same or or or calculating this the same way, right? And so I think what we're seeing is is

Netanyahu and he's always had his distract his detractors inside Israel, right? So that's nothing new. Right. There's there's a large contingent there in Israel that thinks like you know, if we could just get rid of Netanyahu, we'll all live in peace somehow. Um and I you know, so I I uh putting Israeli politics aside'cause I'm definitely not qualified to talk about it.

From a military perspective, from an operational perspective, right? they seem to have done this. They've they've pushed their chips and said we are using this as an opportunity because if we don't if we don't get to a point I again I don't know that they're thinking regime change. They're I think they're a little bit too pragmatic for that. You know, but I think

They're thinking we have to be comfortable with the with the amount of damage we've done to the Iranian military capabilities, particularly the missile program. They've been more worried about the missile program for years than they have been about the nuclear program. Then uh and also with uh their proxies, particularly Hezbollah, right? Um I think that's that's where they wanna be. They wanna be comfortable enough. And they've got their intelligence in that region.

Tends to to be better than US intelligence, right? I mean again, because of proximity and years of having to do this and their abilities of of uh working within that environment. Um so they've you're right, they've they're you and you can see these different agendas now, you know, and and they're they're they're they're diverging. Um And then you've got the other part. Which is what do the the Gulf states think? Right? What do the Saudis think?

And there's some interesting reporting, whether it's accurate or not. Again, you have to kinda balance it out and say, well, let's see if it gets corroborated here somehow. But, you know, with uh MBS with with the the head of Saudi uh talking about staying in the fight, right? He's urging supposedly the White House to to not stop.

Right? Because most of those those folks out there know that if you leave the regime in place, at some point they're gonna have to do this over again. Someone's gonna have to do this over again, right? Because it's not as if they're going to give up. Right. If the theocracy stays in place, it's not like they're gonna have a a I was about to say a come to Jesus moment, but guess that's not happening. That seems unlikely. That seems unlikely. But um

the can's been kicked much further down the road. So maybe now instead of uh, you know, a couple years of a window, you know, now they're looking at ten years, fifteen years to rebuild and get to a point where then it has to happen again. But it will have to happen again.

I don't think they're changing their stripes if they stay in place. Well and in fact some would argue they now have a much stronger incentive to get a nuke an actual nuke. Before this they were enriching uranium, now They actually have an incentive to build a bomb and test it so we know they have a bomb as quickly as possible so this can't happen again. Right. Right. Can we stop that? Is it p i it's possible to stop it? Do we have the the will or th or the uh the uh

I mean we have the ability, I think Short of invading the whole country with two million men can we stop it in another way? I think uh yes. I think um They did not they definitely didn't obliterate. The president I again don't take the president literally when he says we obliterated it. You think no you didn't. But of course it came back to bite him in the ass, right? Well if you if you'd obliterated it we wouldn't be having this war now. Right. So Um but I do think that they they could but it

You know, never say never, right? You never get to a zero risk in any of this. Right. So there's there's always that slight chance that I mean, nobody really has solid intel on where the enriched uranium is. Maybe it's buried well underground at this point. Um maybe some of us move, maybe the North Koreans decide

after looking at this, they think, Hey, we made the right move. We raced to get that nuke weapon. Now look at us, we're safe. Uh like you said, the Iranians, you know, the regime will take that lesson. Maybe the North Koreans step in and help, right? I mean the Russians have been helping them with technology transfer for the past four years in exchange that we th you know, th it wasn't pro bono on the part of the Iranian government to help them with drone technology.

So yeah, there's there there is that Fact that if the regime stays in place, it's it's more hardlined, probably. The IRGC has more say in things, likely. Um and I don't think they're gonna change their stripes and give up. There was a little bit there was talk, I there was talk

the other day about, well, you know, the this this conversation that supposedly is taking place off the radar with with somebody in the Iranian regime. They floated the idea that we'll give up our nuclear ambitions. I'm thinking like No, they're not. Why would they do that? Yeah, exactly. Why i i so but you know, again, I think they read American politics pretty well.

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Look, it's this is a very difficult question to ask, Mike, but Well don't ask me. But I've kind of This is what a lot of people are thinking. What is the likelihood if Iran gets nukes that they actually use them? That they actually fire one into Tel Aviv? Is that hyperbole or is that within the realms of possibility?

I you know, I think it's within the realm of possibility. It's like, do aliens exist? Sure, yeah. And don't uh how you know, don't say no. Well, that would seem silly and preposterous and a little bit arrogant, but um I think with with that idea of nukes, I think Would they use it? I think a regime like theirs is is the possibility is increased somewhat because of the the zealous nature of a theocracy. Um and again because of this look people have done

You know, incredible things in the name of religion over the life of this planet. And so, uh I wouldn't... I don't know. Was it imminent? Who knows? And then the president comes out and says, you know, if we hadn't done what we did on the twentieth of February, uh what did he say within two weeks? You know, they would have had a a a a nuclear weapon.

Uh I don't know. I don't know that he got that intel, right? And I don't know that the intel was credible and I don't know if he had the intel that he should actually say it in a press conference. But uh Do I think that there's a possibility that if they had reached that that stage that now you're a little bit uh more angst ridden because they've got it and they have stated many, many times that, you know, their primary objective is the destruction of Israel. Get'em off the map. Um

There's that possibility, I guess. And the and and nukes come in all shapes and sizes, right? You don't necessarily have to drop the big one, right? But anyway, I I don't think anybody in the region Wants them to have that? We're not so the US is and Israel are not alone in this in a sense

Right. Well hold on Mike. See sorry to to bite into your line of question, Francis, but this is the really important distinction that we've explored with all kinds of guests. We've had experts on Islamism on the show, we've had Iranian dissidents on the show. We've had all kinds of people on the show.

And whenever we bring up, you know, well, you why why does Iran want nuclear weapons? Why should we fear Iran having nuclear weapons? There was go oh yeah, you know, they practice this uh twelve of Shia Islam, which means that they're waiting for the Messiah.

and blah blah blah. So therefore they're you know, you can't trust them'cause religion and blah blah blah. Whenever we push those people on that issue, they always kind of back away. And so then I go, okay, well what if Iran I mean much more likely out s scenarios, Iran wants nuclear weapons for the same reason everybody wants nuclear weapons.

Which means you get to dominate your region, you can't be invaded, you can do whatever the hell you want, you can fund your proxies to attack Israel and nobody's gonna bomb the sh out of you. Etcetera etc. And that seems to me like the much more likely explanation. I I don't wanna say safe, it's the more logical explanation because nobody f knows if they would use a nuclear weapon or not, right? I mean

That's just a reality. I don't have a clue. But I would would I be a little more concerned if they have it? Would I be more concerned that'cause you just said they would do whatever they want.

Well we've already seen when they do what they want how bad it is. Sure. It's not good. Sure. And it's and it's not good for the stability and long term uh you know the success of the region. I don't want to run to have a nuclear weapon. But what the point I'm trying to make is it seems to me that people are very cavalier with the claim.

that the moment they get a nuke they're gonna drop it on television the next year. Right? Yeah. And that and so so when we talk about that, that worries me that people because if we actually believed that, if we actually thought

They've they've got nuclear material, they're gonna build a bomb and they're gonna drop it on Tel Aviv the day that they do. You'd be going, Well, then in that case we literally have to like do to them what we're doing. Do anything possible to what we did to Germany and Japan. Right? That's what we gotta do. But no one's talking about doing any of that. Right. Which tells me that this is probably BS with all respect. Well I I don't know whether it's B S. I think it's it's

It is a way to justify, you know, what you're doing. Um, I do think that. Uh and again I go back to the same thing. clue if they would drop the bomb on Tel Aviv as soon as they get it, right? They have stated what they'd like to do to Tel Aviv. Uh we have seen

um what they've done in the past. We know that they're a destabilizing factor in the region, and that's not just the US saying that. That's the Saudis and the Qataris and everybody else out there. Um but yeah, I don't disagree with the fact that it is used Right, as justification when in fact Eh, you don't know that, because I don't disagree. They want it for leverage. Right, for sure. Right. Um, and that leverage would allow them then to do kind of what they want to do, certainly in the region.

Um and we don't want that. That's a problem. And that's bad. Yeah. But it's so different from the claim that's being made. Yeah. And that kind of bothers me. I mean it it you know, maybe I'm being naive but but like I don't like it when people are lying about like that'cause it matters, right? Yeah. I don't know that they I mean I I guess some people I'm sure straight up lying. Some people are um

Uh who knows, maybe they're couching it in terms of, you know, well this is just the geopolitical realities that we face, so we have to do this, you know, someone's gotta step for I I don't know. But I don't disagree with the idea that it is used as justification, right? Without A hundred percent certainty. But you're not gonna get a hundred percent certainty on

That's also true. Sorry Francis. No, no, it's but moving on now. One of the i issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat now that Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror against the UK, the US. How big of a concern is that and what do you think the likely impact of that will be? Yeah. You know, here's I I think just from an operational perspective, I think my bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf.

individuals, the copycats or whatever, who get triggered by this and decide. Not they don't get a phone call from, you know, Mukshaba Khamani or somebody saying, Yeah, I want you to go do this now. You know, you're a sleeper cell, so now wake up. Um

It's more the people who think this is my justification for going out and doing something. Right. And those uh in part Sometimes because of the disjointed nature of something like that and the inability to see it coming or pick up communications intercepts on something like that. they are very difficult, right, to to you know, identify and then to mitigate that risk. So that's the part uh the state sponsored issue. Well sure. I mean if I was uh the Iranian regime over the past handful of years

Uh would I want support assets in the UK? Would I want support assets in the US? You know, absolutely, right? And what would I want them doing? Well I'd want them you know, pulling a recce on a interesting site that maybe we would consider to be a soft target. Right. So so yeah, I d the the the counterterrorism people in the US are stretched then, right? They're they're working their asses off all the time. But you could argue they've been doing that Yeah, for years now.

I mean w everybody's tired from the war on terror, but the terrorists aren't tired from it, you know, elements of it. And um and the people that are trying to fight it on the other side on the counterterrorism operations, they they haven't given up. It's not like they got tired of the whole effort and so the past few years they just let it go. Um so th in a sense there's nothing new there. It's just yeah, okay, fine, you got a r uh heightened threat alert because of this.

But like I said, I think the the the bigger issue is those people out there that for whatever reason, right, they're they they're true believers or they're you know, they're they've got mental issues, they're gonna look at this and go, Oh, this is my this is my justification. But that must be a genuine worry for America'cause once we since we've been here, which is a comparatively short period of time, we've seen, I think, th already three Islamist terrorist attacks in the US.

I mean, you must be worried, Mark. Yeah. Oh, every yeah, everybody's fa you're worried, but at the same time, you know, you can't sit in your foxhole, right? So you gotta yeah, you gotta get out and and get busy. And I what I do know is that Since nine eleven. All those years ago, which seems like ancient history, right? I've got teenagers and they yeah, I talk to them about it and they kinda look at me like, Hmm, really? Um it's like when I talk to my middle boy who's a basketball player.

Talk to him about the old guys, right? Bob Cousy, Pete Meravitt. Say like, Oh, come on, you know, seriously Unk, right? Those guys. Um so I think it's it's it is uh You you get to a certain point when you work counter terrorism operations, whether at the local or the state or the federal level or overseas. where um you become very uh uh pragmatic.

Right. About it. Because you know the threat's always there. The methodology is doesn't tend to change much. Technology can change kind of how you gather intelligence to some degree, but Um, you just kinda keep ticking along. So I'm not saying I'm I mean I'm not worried. I'm just saying Yeah, you just you just raise the alert, but it's the same problem.

But you there's gotta be a renewed focus because from an outsider's point of view, I'm looking at going so there was one in Michigan with a truck loaded with explosives trying to drive into a synagogue, then you had a potential t nail bomb attack in New York. Then you had the shooting in Austin. Yeah. I mean And this comes on the heels of And and this is another thing that I would have been doing if I was the Iranian regime. I would have been

taking advantage of what essentially was a very porous border for several years under the previous administration. Uh the vetting just wasn't there, right? And and because they weren't focusing on it, they didn't have the resources down there.

Um and so the Customs and Border Patrol, you know, they did what they could do, but there was really no vetting. And so the idea of how many people came across that border with nefarious intent, right, whatever it may be, for narcotics trafficking or for terrorism purposes, we don't really know. Right. And so that's a problem. And and so it compounded this already, you know, significant issue of uh of terrorism on the home front.

And you're right, obviously the conflict any time you have a conflict, right, um, you got a problem. I mean obviously m seventh October, the height and the the the alert, you know, was was r raised and It just happens whenever there's something like this. The target can change, right, and and who you're looking at and but On the other side, again, this idea of the the the the individual who's triggered into a lone wolf attack. you know, they're they're always out there, right? Um so

Uh it it it sometimes I guess what I'm saying is it sometimes with the state sponsored, it can be a I don't want to say it's easy, but it can be a little less complicated. And Not quite as much based on luck, you know, with a lone wolf, maybe you get lucky and the individual's cousin sees something and actually says something. Right? That's kind of what you have to hope for, is that somebody within that orbit is willing to speak up. If that doesn't happen, you know, it can be very difficult.

Because senior s senior security officials in the UK have said that they are highly worried that what the Iranians are gonna do is pay petty criminals nominal sums of money like five hundred pounds, a thousand pounds, to create small acts of terror in order to destabilize security to destabilise society. And we saw an incident In the UK, uh, a few weeks ago, where

ambulances were set on fire. Yeah. Right. And the an Islamist group came out and said, We claim responsibility for this. Now we don't know. Is that a ploy? Is that a game? Is that a mind game? Or is it actually true? And what happens is that as that continues It destabilizes, right? It doesn't take much, right, to do something that has this outsized impact, right? So a handful of incidents

And what have you done? Suddenly, you know, everybody's losing their shit, right? And and it it becomes a real it after nine eleven, you know, that was That was a a major, a major uh event, obviously. I just that was a statement of rocket science. Uh but people People were kind of pulled together. Right. And so you developed a mindset within a population.

That's it. And that was a very helpful thing for a period of time. But then again, like I said, everyone's gotten tired. We kinda got out of that. Everybody's back to listening to their AirPods and staring at their phone when they're walking around. Nobody's operationally aware. Not that they you know should be, but uh pay some attention, I guess is what I'm saying. So this is When you when you look at the potential for just a handful of things to create uh an outsized impact on a population.

You know, a handful of of lone wolf terrorist incidents. I mean bin Laden talked about this, you know, well before nine eleven. He was gonna bankrupt America, right, through um using our own civil liberties and and you know the freedoms. um cause us to kind of retract and do what we did, which was this m you know, multi decade effort against the war yeah, the war on terror.

Yeah, and and again the the IRGC and the goods force and you know their all their proxies, they're not stupid, right? They know how to do this. But whether there's You know, I I don't have access to that intelligence, but I will say the the FBI and and other authorities in the states spend a massive amount of time.

focused on this very issue and they have gotten much better over the years, right? Um we had some problems with siloed information leading up to nine eleven and some other issues in terms of lack of human sources and different places, but They have gotten much better at the process of sharing intelligence from across the board, the state, the local, the federal authorities, working with liaison partners overseas. So that part of it's the good news.

But they just need to have success, you know, once or twice or handful of times to change the entire dynamic of a of a country. And also radicalization is a major problem. particularly within the mus Muslim community. Because you're thinking there will be a lot of potentially young men who are looking to this and some young women. who will get radicalized by certain preachers. We've seen it happen time and time in the UK.

And all of a sudden you have a portion of the population who are American born who suddenly become a threat to the country. Yeah. Yeah. Well I again yeah, when when you have an incident, um And it's a it's a really interesting dynamic, right? That the way that Social media has changed how we how we process information. As soon as there's an incident, whether it's the the Michigan synagogue attack or or anything.

uh suddenly everybody's a reporter, right? Everybody's a journalist. So they're on their phone. And then you've got this segment of society that they they'll see a they'll see um Right. Sounds Middle Eastern. You know, I knew it. I just knew it.

Right. And then they'll look and they'll say, Oh, wait a minute, he was in the National Guard here in the US? Wait a minute, he was he was born wherever in in in the States. What? And so there it's it's a confusing dynamic, but it speaks to exactly what you're saying, which is you trying to identify these individuals

It you need an element of luck. I never had a single operation in in uh in the agency uh that didn't have some element of luck when there was there was success involved. Right? At the point where you think you you know, you're just really good at it and you don't you know and you don't need luck, then you're kinda I want to talk about something that men collectively pretend isn't an issue and collectively know absolutely it is. Uncomfortable underwear. Sheath sorted it.

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Uh Mike, one of the other things I want to ask you about is it seems inevitable to me that this will change very much the dynamic Of the relationship between European countries, including our country, the UK, and America. Because I'll be honest with you, I think from the European perspective, This kind of looks at this point as we sit here talking a little bit like America and Israel went and did a thing and now they expect us to pay the price of that. And that's gonna piss a lot of people off.

Yeah. So I was in I was in London when uh President Trump uh was making those comments about Keir Starmer. You know, he's he's not Winston Churchill and, you know, we don't need anybody to come into the fight after we've already won. And um you know, as a as a dual citizen uh in the US and UK, uh I found it offensive.

I I d I didn't like that'cause I don't like we shouldn't be talking that way about close allies, right? Where we've got so much history, right? And there's been disagreements in the past that's true. So I thought not Not the best move, but then you step back and you go, Well, what else do you expect? You know, you know what you're going to get from President Trump, which is in part why his base just loves him, right? Because

in a sense he he kinda talks like them, right? He he feels like the guy next door, right, in a way. And I think they they like that, but it also leads to these messaging issues. Um and and so Well my point is something else though, which is

while he was slanging off Keir Starmer, yeah, I was very happy with that because Keir Starmer it depends on your politics. Ki Keir Starmer is not Winston Churchill. And it's not really even about politics, actually. It's about reality. So Uh both Labour and Conservative governments in our country have they've run down the military, they've run down our industrial base.

They've run down our intelligence operate they've run down almost everything that we need to make ourselves safe. And so when Marco Rubio or when President Trump comes over to Davos or to Munich and they Tell Europeans you need to up your game. I'm rooting for them when they say that. I think that's important.

What the point I'm making here is this isn't about talk anymore. This is about you went and caused the Australia from Moose to get closed and we are the ones that suffer from that because we are the ones that import the gas, the oil, the fertilizer, et cetera. In a way that actually the United States is quite insulated from. I mean, you produce almost all your own energy, etcetera. We don't. And so

Having taken this action, now we in Europe and in the UK are supposed to suffer the economic consequences of the action. It's not about talk, it's about reality. Well the talk also is it when you w I guess my point being is when you slag somebody off and then you have to turn around and ask for their help. That's that's a messaging problem. Yeah. But but then the logistics side of it, you know, the actual, you know, real world

uh impact is yeah, you're right. I mean now and and I think that there's a lot of There's a lot of Gulf states that feel that way. You know, what the hell? Right? And we weren't happy with the Iranian regime, but you know, we kinda had this this thing going, right? And now it's it's it appears to be somewhat fed up. So th and and that kinda goes back to something we were talking about earlier.

A scenario that you could have argued might have produced somewhat different results would have been to uh Include some of your allies in the pre-planning. Now, you know, there are some in the States who will say, well, that's that you know, then you take away the element of surprise. I'm thinking, well, well, you're not.

talking to them about a specific targeting operation on a specific date and specific time, you're saying, look, we have to have these conversations because here's what we believe, here's what we think. Um, can we get some agreement? People don't agree, fine. You st you still have the same result. You go out and do it on your own, right? But I think

You know, th there's there's a a lot of folks who think, Well, that's bullshit. We don't need anybody else and President Trump has enunciated that pretty clearly, you know, really lately. But that's not true. We do need other people, right? You can't you you you you can't draw the curtains around uh the US and say that we're

were isolationists, right? I love that sort of the I I I I would love to be in a world where you could be libertarian and isolationist and the sh wouldn't hit the fan, right, on a regular basis. I think that'd be lovely. But that's not... My experience anyway.

From being overseas for a long period of time and some shit. Can you elaborate on this, Mike?'Cause you know, there are a lot of people who have that view. W Dave Smith is a prominent proponent of that view. Very smart guy. Very we've had him on the show. We had a great debate. You know, we don't agree with Dave, but he puts his arguments well. Why is that worldview not accurate in your opinion?

It has to be based on your your life experiences, right? My life experiences have been a lot of it being overseas in some fairly hostile environments where you see how uh people treat each other and and sort of the worst sides of of of uh of of uh humanity and um I don't live in a world where I think we're so disconnected that we can just ignore everything else that happens around the world and somehow we're not going to be an impact. I I'm a big believer in the fact that, you know

Something you you do some over here, it's gonna impact over here. Right. The world's too goddamn small anymore. Right. And and it worked one time, but a couple hundred years ago, right? And now that's not how we're we're we're all so f tied together. So that's the that's what I mean by that. I don't my personal experience has been it tells me that while it'd be lovely, you know, um w this is not a a community of nations where everyone's got everybody else's best interest at heart. Right? And so

Um that's that's it but again I get it. I get Dave and and and others who think that way. And and you know, I've if if if I felt that was the way the world worked, then I'd probably think that too, right? Hey, great. But

Anyway, that's that's where I that's all I have to say about that. Well th that's not your experience. I get it. I mean w one of the points you make about the impact uh this happens here and then there's an impact over there is in terms of European and countries in the UK, I mean

I don't know what's gonna happen, nobody does, but logically speaking If the United States is not effectively acting like your ally anymore, talking about you, causing you problems, I mean a logical solution for a lot of European countries would be to do a separate deal with Iran. Yeah, yeah, or logical deal is to to you know, kind of Tighten that that alliance, you know, within the EU and and you know say, okay, fine. And I think that was

You know, I agree. When when uh when uh Trump was talking about the lack of spending on the uh for NATO, great, yeah, absolutely. Get on board, right? Um but Again, I d I I I suppose, right, you you could make a an argument for could the EU cut a deal with Iran. Um I don't know I don't know that that would work.

Um, I'm just I'm I'm thinking through this out loud. Uh, but I would see where you could eventually get to that point if you get, you know, your ass kicked enough by y what you thought was a tight ally. And you know, so now look uh Y i it you don't need to go any further than saying Here we don't need you. We don't need anyone.

And then over here, well you know, we're gonna need your support in opening the strait because look, you guys have a lot of skin in the game because this, you know, it's more important to you than it is to us. Well, we're the ones who d who created this problem, right? The US military.

So I just think that that's where I come back around to saying sometimes and it gets a bad name sometimes in the US among certain folks. Again, a lot of times people who think that, you know, it's it's it's the US, it's our way or no way. Yeah. In the real world you do need to think about coalition building. Right. You do need to think about marshalling your resources along with your allies, you know, for force multiplier purposes. That has more impact.

I I do think if we had thought this through And if we had worked a little harder on that idea, that we probably wouldn't have had this issue. They still would have tried to blockade the the the strait, but we would have been on top of it. It wouldn't have been a reactive moment, right? We would have been proactively dealing with it, not just us.

Well the attitude to Iran and th you know, the not thinking through what they are likely to do seems to me to be kinda replicated in Europe where you go, Well whatever you think about Keir Starmer or Macron or whoever You have to understand their situation from their point of view.

If you're the leader of a European country, you're looking down the barrel of a recession, y people don't generally get reelected in the middle of a recession. If something goes bad in your country economically, you tend to get the blame and you tend to get voted out. So you're putting these people who are already in quite a weak position

into a bind, then you're talking sh about them, then you're trying to pin the blame on them for something you did. You put all that together. I mean, you could be talking about a permanent fracturing of the the alliance. Yeah, I don't think it's gonna go that far because again I think I think the White House will do what they can to get out of this here, uh relatively soon. Um because they they not because of that, but because of internal US political concerns. But there's also this thought that

Okay, well right now, you know, uh our EU allies are saying, ah, they're not going to you know, they're not gonna take part. Maybe they'll m do something appropriate, which I think was the phrase they used the other day, you know, we'll take appropriate measures, who knows what that means. But

then I think there was some thinking in DC, in Washington DC that well, they'll come around once they realize how bad economically this could be for them, uh you know, and and and uh from the energy supply. They'll come around. Right. And to the point of self preservation, maybe they will because they'll look and go, All right, well, better we go all in and help open the the straight than

face this problem with on the global energy markets and and suddenly we're in a recession and now we're gonna get kicked out. So they may do a calculation that says, all right, we don't like it. And yes we're you know, we feel insulted. But maybe out of self preservation so that we don't completely get our ass handed to us in the next election, we'll go all in and help with the effort. Maybe that so that may play a role in the

Again, coming back around to the idea that politics influences everything. And speaking of politics, one of the things we've seen obviously in this country in the United States is there's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base. Yes. Is that gonna last if this drags on? No. No, I won't. Um there's y you maybe take a knife and cut half of that out and say if this thing is a protracted conflict, you're gonna lose half that base.'Cause they're not all in on that.

And I don't I just don't see the White House going all in on that. I think they they're they're really looking at this stage of the game for some way out. And they're gonna have to be careful because what does that do? That gives the Iranians leverage, right? Then suddenly they read the the you know, the tea leaves and they say, uh okay, and here's our list of concessions that we want.

And I think that's already happening. You know, uh th whomever they're talking to, if they're talking to somebody, right? And that's a big question, right? Because You know, who who is who who's got the ability, right, to cut a deal at this stage of the game, right? Again, Mushtawa Khamani this he hasn't been seen ever since he was named a successor. Th there's no evidence.

that he's copacetic. So who is it? Um I would argue it's not the the the Speaker of the Parliament, right, Mohammad uh Khalifa. He's And he's not a he's not a reformist, right? So who are you trying to cut a deal with? The IRGC, right? They've got a new commander of the of the IRGC after they whacked the last two. Um

Head of the Kudz force, maybe? Uh i it's there's not a lot of people out there that you could argue can carry out a a deal that the various elements now of the Iranian leadership uh that exists. would agree to. And maybe now they're at odds with each other, right? Over do you have discussions? No, we don't want discussions. Do you cut a deal? Do you find some concessions? What do those concessions look like? Um

So this is gonna be very complicated, but I do think the White House is very keen to make that happen for your what you've described. That support, even from the base, is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer.

Mike, pleasure as always to have you on the show. Final question. Really do you mean that? Yeah, of course. Yeah, of course. It's always great to chat. Yeah. Final question is always the same. What's the one thing we're not talking about that we really should? I'll tell you what I think. Uh is is it's gonna sound odd, but I think it's Ukraine. Because for the past several weeks. Um

In the US it's particularly noticeable where we we do seem to have ADHD, right? So we can't focus on more than one thing. So you're hard pressed to know you know, that there's something happening in that conflict and, you know, the ground's thawing, you know, we're moving into the spring fighting season and it looks like so far over the, you know, recent

mm week, few days that you're getting a a start of what looks like a spring, maybe early summer offensive. It's still a major conflict causing major suffering. and with the potential to really create um problems. For NATO, for the EU. Putin's showing no signs of of backing off his demands. I don't think he sees any downside to continuing the effort. And yet because of the way information flows and how we're all like raccoons chasing the next shiny tinfoil ball, we've taken our eye off it.

And it's like it's not even happening. And so I think that's the one thing people need to kind of touch back in and say, oh, that's going. Mike, and why is this still going on? Because President Trump, you know, repeatedly you talk about not taking'em literally. I mean, he said it'd end the war on day one. It's been a lot of days. Yeah. And spend more than one day. I will say that. Um Yeah, uh if I knew that

you know, I'd get myself one of those Nobel Peace Prizes, you know. Uh if someone would just give me one. Uh but I think that the part of the problem there is Putin again doesn't see a a downside. uh to doing this. He still believes that I think he can outlast the West, he can outlast Ukraine. He's got the manpower advantage, right? Um but when you look at it you think it's been all these years and You know, he's he's in a World War One scenario where they're trench fighting. Um

It's remarkable. And it's remarkable also from a technology standpoint how drone warfare has just completely changed the battlefield. We're seeing that played out now obviously in in the Iran conflict. But that is an absolutely fascinating part of that whole sad story. Mike, thanks for coming on. Head on over to triggerpod.co dot uk where Mike is gonna answer your questions.

Who do you see, if there is anyone, as a viable opposition leader replacement for the current regime that would be acceptable to the non-radicalised populace?