Our Thoughts On The Iran War - podcast episode cover

Our Thoughts On The Iran War

Mar 31, 20261 hr 18 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Summary

In this controversial episode, the hosts analyze the Iran war, questioning the lack of a defined US strategy despite clear objectives, and discussing how Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz could lead to an "escalation trap" and a global recession. They explore the divergent interests of the US and its regional allies, warning of a potential long-term realignment in US-Israel relations and increased anti-Semitism. The hosts also examine the profound economic and political ramifications for Europe and the UK, emphasizing the need for good-faith dialogue over divisive rhetoric to address these complex challenges.

Episode description

Triggernometry is proudly independent. Thanks to the sponsors below for making that possible:

- We use Ground News to escape the echo chamber and stay fully informed. Go to https://ground.news/triggernometry to save 40% on the Ground News unlimited access Vantage plan.

- Earn a yield on gold https://monetary-metals.com/triggernometry/ - Qualia Creatine+. Go to https://Qualialife.com/TRIG for up to 50% off AND use code TRIG at checkout for an additional 15% off. Join our exclusive TRIGGERnometry community on Substack! https://triggernometry.substack.com/ OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here: Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5 Shop Merch here - https://shop.triggerpod.co.uk/ Advertise on Triggernometry: https://trigger-brands.com | or enquire at marketing@triggerpod.co.uk Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media: https://twitter.com/triggerpod https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod/ https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod/ About TRIGGERnometry: Stand-up comedians Konstantin Kisin (@konstantinkisin) and Francis Foster (@francisjfoster) make sense of politics, economics, free speech, AI, drug policy and WW3 with the help of presidential advisors, renowned economists, award-winning journalists, controversial writers, leading scientists and notorious comedians.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Initial Framing and Episode Context

I'll be honest, I think this is gonna be a very controversial episode, and a lot of people are not gonna like what we have to say. The reality is, this is one of the most important. that we have covered in the history of trigonometry. We are not experts, but what I think we can do is share Some of our impressions. Including of a number of conversations we had with people who do have access to the administration's thinking on these issues. Not saying they're right. I'm just saying this is

what we have heard and you take it or leave it as you want. Almost every recession in history is caused by the primary form of energy dominant at that time. Байкин і прайс, іфф ви лук клоса таран кав, полікальні консервенці. So Francis, another US trip summing up. Mm-hmm.

We haven't released most of the episodes we've recorded, uh, but we wanted to record this to catch everybody up to where we are and what we've learnt and what we've seen here, which is quite a lot. And a lot of it is to do with the war in Iran. And I'll be honest, I think

This is gonna be a very controversial episode and a lot of people are not gonna like what we have to say, which is why I think it's really important that we explain how we've arrived at the views that we've come to. So first of all, I think it's worth setting out how we've covered this war from the beginning and how we've we've begun to shape our views on it.

It's a great point. So first of all, I wanna talk about how we came to this war even before it started. So we were broadly in support of the Twelve Day War. because we thought that was the most effective way of dealing with Iran's nuclear weapons. It's really important that Iran doesn't develop a nuclear weapon for the stability of the Middle East, more broadly, and for the globe. As well, we are also products of

The Iraq War. We came of age during the Iraq War. So whenever men someone mentions the words regime change, immediately we get an almost, I would say, visceral reaction because we saw what happened when the invasion of Iraq happened, we saw what the long term consequences, spikes in terrorism, all of that. And by the way, what about Libya? What about Syria? etcetera. So when this war was initially being spoken about and then the bombing started, I initially had quite a

Negative reaction to it. But one of the things that we have both learnt in trigonometry is it's important. to realise that those are emotional reactions, to put them to one side, and then to analyse the arguments as they are and decide independently and come to our own conclusions of what the best arguments are. And the b and therefore the best possible course of action to take.

Iran's Complex Internal Dynamics

And one of the things that really shaped my framing was the fantastic live stream we did with Eamon Dean and Richard Miniter. And Eamon Dean is a former Al-Qaeda MI6 double operator. And Eamon explained to us the makeup of Iran.

Twenty-five percent in favor of the regime, twenty-five percent vehemently against it, so those are the two polars, and fifty percent in the middle who essentially just want to live their lives. Immediately That's at alarm bells ringing in my head because I think I thought to myself, Well, that's surely the potential for a civil war there. 98% were against a regime that would make regime change not easier, but more easy.

And then you have factored on top of it, as you well know coming from the the Soviet Union, as I would know from my mother's from Venezuela, everyone can now drink. What authoritarian regimes do is once they install themselves They then put in secret police. They then put in their own armies. So remain fiercely loyal to them. And what the Iranian regime has is the IRGC, who are Two hundred thousand strong military trained soldiers, many of whom are highly ideological if not fanatic.

No Clear US Strategy for Iran

And what the US and... its allies haven't dealt with is how do you get rid of that? How do you deal with that element of the regime? Well we'll get to that. Um it's interesting for me because I didn't have the negative reaction you did because if you looked at things that had been happening prior to that, Venezuela, mm-hmm I mean, we don't know exactly. We've done an interview on this trip with somebody to Daniel Di Martino actually who predicted it was about to happen.

um to talk about what is happening in Venezuela today. And so far, you know, it's been a success, but the you know, there's There's some questions about the long term, obviously, and Cuba being another. Um, but you know, the idea that we uh that America under President Trump is reshaping the world to the benefit of the United States and the West

To me, was a good thing. Uh so my initial reaction was what we said when we first arrived here three weeks ago on Joe Rogan's show, which is the coin is in the air, nobody knows how it's gonna land, uh, and let's wait and see. And the one thing that I think is worth also saying is we're not experts, we're not claiming to be experts, we're not saying anyone should listen to our opinion about this and they really shouldn't listen to our opinion in isolation.

But what I think we can do is share Some of our impressions. including of a number of conversations we had with people who do have access to information. and who do have access to the administration's thinking on these issues. that we had privately and publicly. So we interviewed Ted Cruz, for example. Uh but we also spoke to a lot of people every time we come to the US, what we do is we meet lots and lots of people from different walks of life, different backgrounds.

And we try and gather a different different sets of perspectives. And if you go back even further to before this conflict and before the twelve day war, and really if you look at our entire coverage of this issue of the Middle East.

It wasn't an issue that we ever really talked about. The only time we I think we talked about was with Melanie Phillips. I would say twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen. And as I said to her in a subsequent interview, I didn't buy a lot of the things she was saying at the time.

And I don't think you did either, no, to be honest. Then I think Noam Doman raised it as an issue, like I think in the final question in the interview we did with him, which would have been 2023. 2023. And then October 7th happened. And when October seventh happened, we actually did the very thing that we're doing at the moment, which is we talked to people from different perspectives.

When it when it came to the Gaza issue, we had Ben Shapiro and Natasha Hausdorff and other people who are very pro Israel. We also had Basim Youssef and Norman Finkenstein and and others, and Dave Smith since obviously as well. who who have a different perspective. We talked to people from all different sides and for about a year we didn't express any opinion on it at all.

Then eventually and it was my video, but actually it was very much informed by conversations you and I have been having the entire time after listening to people from different sites. We did a video I did a video called Why I'm Off the Fence About Israel's War in in in Gaza specifically, in which basically I kind of broke down why the arguments of the people who are vehemently

Pro Palestine didn't make a lot of sense to me. And really the main thing I was saying there is that I refuse to be a hypocrite. I know for a fact that if Britain or America or any other country, frankly, was attacked in the way that Israel was on October the seventh, we would do to the people who did that exactly what Israel has done to Hamas And unfortunately a lot of the civilians that Hamas is using as human shields in Gaza.

So I refuse to sit in the comfort of of my home or uh air conditioned studio and have all of these opinions about how Israel is is doing things that they shouldn't be doing, even though I know that that is exactly what we would do. Right? So th my point being is what we try and do about all of these issues is actually something that someone came up to us in New York last time we were there.

uh and said, you know, what I love about your show is you guys do sense making. And I was like, well w what does that even mean? And basically when we had the conversation with him, we came to the point where we understood sense making is when You're not just expressing an opinion, but you actually explain how you arrived at that opinion. And you're willing to change your opinion when you're presented with better arguments or with more information.

And that is exactly where we are today. And so a a lot of people who hate us have tried to position us as pro Israel. Mm-hmm. We're not pro Israel, we're not anti Israel, we're not pro-Palestine, we're not anti Palestine, we're pro the truth. And that is our approach to this current conflict as well.

Absolutely. And what's really important when you're dealing with these kind of conflicts is you try and be objective about it. Because what we talk about on the show, they're important topics and they're important subjects. But the reality is... This is one of the most important topics that we have covered in the history of trigonometry. Not just because it's a war and because people are dying, which is obviously awful, but also because the implications from this war. Economically.

Could be disastrous. And politically as well. Yes. And could have a knock-on effect. not only for the politics in America or the politics of Iran, but we' p but politics right the way through the globe. Because if the global economy crashes then that is going to mean upheavals socially, economically and politically right the way through Europe.

right the way through Asia and in countries like Australia as well. And I think it's important to say that when you say the global economy crashes, or I think a better way to frame would probably be there's a global recession. That's not just like something we heard someone say. We will talk in a bit about the rationale for seeing that coming down the pipe.

Let's start with like I said where we started. Three weeks ago we were on Joe Rogan's show. We said the coins in the air, nobody knows how it's gonna land. And what I said is I'd love to know what the strategy is.

What is the thinking of how you achieve your end goals, your stated objectives? And let's just re restate those for the purposes of the discussion. The United States has set out its objective as uh preventing Iran from nuclear breakout, which means enriching uranium to weapons grade and building a nuclear weapon. uh to degrade their ability uh to terrorize the region with Hamas and the Houthis and Hezbollah, uh to degrade their ballistic and drone missile program.

Uh and regime change. I mean, they did say this, right? They wanted to change the regime, which is why they killed a hell of a lot of people at the top of the regime. Um and so you have to assess success or failure against those criteria. Now

I say I'd love to know what the strategy is. Unfortunately, one of the things that became apparent to us pretty quickly, and I mean from talking to people within the administration Journalists who are in the know, other people who, you know, I don't want to get into the details of who they are and what they do, but nonetheless. These are people who have insider information. I'm not saying they're right. I'm just saying this is what we have heard. And you take it or leave it as you want.

There is no plan and there was no strategy. And what they all say, pretty much in the same terms, is they thought after Venezuela that they they're basically like unstoppable and they can just, oh, we did this, we did this, we did this, we did this. And there is no plan. There is no strategy for how you get there. And as we sit here today recording this I think the facts on the ground bear that out.

Iran's Strait of Hormuz Leverage

uh you see that uh the US military's been extraordinarily successful in destroying Iranian military assets, sinking the navy, taking out the leaders and whatever. But Iran retains the main thing which is control of the stray of hummus.

Um and we'll talk about why that's so significant in a moment. Uh and there is from what we understand in the conversations that we have, particularly the discussion we've had with Robert Pate, which I hope more people go and watch, there is No military option that allowed you to reopen it short of putting Marines on the airborne, which are already moving to the Gulf, on the ground on Kong Island and the coastline of the Gulf. But that will lead to more escalation.

And it's very, very clear that that that is what's already happening. Every time Israel strikes an Iranian asset that they're not supposed to, let's say, th or these you know, that might lead to escalation, the Iranians immediately respond by bombing the equivalent thing in the Gulf. uh c Arab countries. So the first thing to say is For all our desire for there to be a plan, all the signs are there was no plan.

And that's the concern. Because people compare it to Venezuela and go, look, well this happened in Venezuela. Number one, Venezuela wasn't regime training. Delcy Rodriguez, who is now president or de facto president of Venezuela, was part of the regime. She was a very senior part of the regime. What they did and their plan was very clear and very simple.

they're going to effectively arrest Chavez on foreign soil and his wife and take them back to the United States. They had already had in mind a successor, who was Dulcie Rodriguez, who I think it's fair to say knew about it. I would be highly skeptical that she just woke up one day and what me presidente? What a surprise. No, th that that had been planned in advance. And it was almost seamless and smooth the way that she was just put into power.

But if you look at the rest of Venezuela, everybody else is still in place. Mm-hmm. Everything, the collectivos, which is essentially the armed thug who keep the Venezuelan people, they're still there. The military, they're still there. In fact, Trump said that the reason he didn't want Machado in in power, Karina Machado, who is widely recognized in Venezuela to be the rightful leader,

Is because the military didn't respect her, which were Trump's words. The military didn't want her. So he didn't want to destabilize the country. And also what you have in Venezuela is it's a pretty homogeneous Christian country conservative Christian country. Where the majority of the people there are sick of the regime, they didn't want it, they're not religiously ideological in the same way a l there are people in Iran are, and as a result of that, it's a much, much easier fix. Right.

And so this is the thing is if in Iran if what we were talking about is what I like to call regime adjustment, which is what you had in Venezuela. That would be one thing. Or frankly, if you were talking about a military operation simply to degrade their ballistic missile and drone programme, try and get some of the nuclear material destroyed as well.

uh whether you're gonna achieve it successfully. You know, there's maybe some questions about that. But once you start taking out the regime and then now potentially putting boots on the ground, That's different. And also Venezuela didn't have control over twenty percent of the world's oil, twenty five percent of o of the world's LNG, and fifty percent of the world's trade fertilizer, to say nothing of plastics, helium, etcetera, which these are very important things for the global economy.

The first sign for us was talking to people inside the administration and other people who who understand these things. And these are not people who are Trump haters, these are not people who are Israel haters. Who expressed real concern that there was no plan and there is no strategy. Now, look, sometimes you don't have a plan, but you can still style it out. That can happen.

Um then we talked to people from across the p and we will continue to talk to people from across the political spectrum and across the spectrum of opinions on this conflict. First we had Ted Cruz on, we had Mehdi Hassan on, uh and we had Robert Pape on, we had Mike Baker who's an ex CIA guy, and we'll probably continue to have conversations from different perspectives about this.

Experts Discuss Conflict Off-Ramps

And you have to say, our interview with Ted Cruz is very special. It's a very special interview for us. It was a great honor to meet him, uh to interview him in in his office in the centre. I thought he was incredibly articulate about the evils of communism. I thought he was uh he he was very good at reminding

us and our audience about the power of leadership with the example of Ronald Reagan. But when we talked about the off-ramp for this conflict, I didn't hear anything that made any sense It you know, what he said is well, the people of Iran have to decide their own future. I don't see how that happens here. Th there is no evidence that the people of Iran are going to rise up and overthrow the regime at this point. I hope to God I'm wrong.

But at this point what we've seen is there were mass protests, were encouraged by people in the West. The leaders of those protests were all slaughtered. And now you can take out one commander and and another navy uh admiral and this and this and that. But nothing is happening and I don't think it will, because I I always say to people, like, imagine Like we're not fans of the current British government. But if France

you know, did a targeted strike on ten Downing Street, I don't think we'd all rise up and overthrow the Labour Party. We'd we'd think about defending our country from the French. Right? When when your country's attacked, what you do is rally around the flag. And also, the people who were prepared to really overthrow the regime, unfortunately, they're they've all been killed. The news doesn't just tell you what's happening. It often tells you what to think.

And these days, the biggest red flag isn't what's said, it's what gets left out. That's why I use Ground News. It's the only app that compares how the same story is covered across. The political spectrum and show you what whole audiences are not being told. The Blind Sport feed is one of my favorite features. Every day it flags upwards of 20 stories that are being ignored either by the left or the right. Follow along at ground.news.com.

trigonometry. Like this. A new study from UC San Diego found that climate change cost almost twice as much as we thought because earlier estimates left out damage to the oceans. That's a pretty big update, and yet no coverage. Literally zero came from right leaning outlets. Or this, a recent Gallup poll found trust in the media has hit a record low, with just 28% of Americans saying they trust newspapers, radio, and TV.

To report the news accurately and fairly. That's a staggering result, but if you only read left-leaning news, you likely never saw it at all. Go to ground.newslash trigonometry to get forty percent off their unlimited advantage. The same one we use and stop being managed by the media.

Escalation Trap and Global Recession

And that's the real concern because you go if there is no plan which there doesn't seem to be, then effectively what are we doing is we're moving towards chaos. Because you need a plan. If you c think about Vietnam, what was the objective of the of Vietnam? To win hearts and minds. Well of course we failed because there was no clear strategic plan in place. And then what you have is then you have the Americans who have got one objective.

And then you've got Israel who have got another objective. And you've got the Gulf States who also they're much more like Israel. We'll talk about this later as well for sure. Yeah, so you're just going If the objectives are not aligned, if we don't have a clear focus and a clear strategy, if we don't have the same objective,

Then how are we gonna be successful? It's like think about this show. If you had one objective, I had another objective. Even with a company as small as trigonometry and a YouTube channel Objectives are misaligned, therefore you are not gonna be working in tandem. Therefore you're not gonna be working in an alignment and what will naturally happen is that there will be conflict not only with Iran but also with each other.

And you look at for instance what happened with Israel bombing the o the oil plantation, not the oil plantation the oil factory. What's the word that I'm I think I think it was uh gas actually. It was a gas, apologies. In Iran and you look at that And you think to yourself, Well, the Americans

Trump was obviously very angry and very upset about this, and quite rightly so, because it couldn't be interpreted as anything other than an escalatory move, an escalatory tactics. Now look, there is some debate about this because there are people who say, well actually the r uh Trump is pretending to pursue negotiations while actually secretly allowing Israel to bomb because it puts Iran in a pickle. We'll talk about Israel in a second. But let's just come back to

uh the conversations that we had. We had Ted Cruz, we had Mehdi Hassan. Um and look, I I didn't find Mehdi's arguments particularly persuasive either, but it's important to have people from his perspective on the show and I'm very glad he came on. But then we had Robert Papon. And that's where I think both of us felt that this was the first time we were presented with

Arguments where we couldn't really find a gap or a hole in them. There are some concerns about what you're saying, but it's probably worth um restating for people who didn't watch that interview. I mean, he's a guy who's been studying air campaigns. for over thirty years. Um, he predicted the twelve day war. He predicted that it would lead to a regime change war later. Um and his arguments are basically this. First of all, the nuclear material

was not destroyed in the twelfth day. Well we know that for a fact because otherwise why would this war be happening? Right? So the the nuclear materials are still there and they're now dispersed around Iran. They are not going to be secured Through extract.

And people are openly saying this, whether it's BB Netanyahu or Mark Levin on Twitter, I saw him today saying you can't get nuclear material without going into the tunnels where it's stored and getting it out, which means boots on the ground, right? Um, so you're not going to get the nuclear materials without far, far, far more escalation. And even that is a risk. And his argument is the US is now in an escalation trap where every step they take to escalate will be met by Iran.

with more escalation that creates now permanent damage. So rather than temporarily closing the strayer from us. what you end up with is destruction of Gulf Arab and Iranian oil facilities, which means the the current spike in oil prices.

which if it lasts for a few months will cause a global recession, could actually last a year or more if that happens. So this escalation trap is there. And so in other words, unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western Allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives of getting rid of the nuclear weapons and of reopening Australia from Run.

And I haven't heard and we've tried to find people who offer a counter perspective to that, I haven't heard a persuasive argument about why he's wrong. Um well this is the worry, because then you also What the Americans are trying to do now is have talks in Pakistan with the Iranian officials.

Geopolitical Fallout: Europe and Russia

But Iran doesn't seem to be wanting to play ball. And if you look at it from an Iranian perspective, why would they? Why would they? You have Started a war, you have killed their leader, you have killed many of the highest ranking officials. The Iranians come have come out and said, look, Trump has tricked us twice. Why would he why would we believe him? Why would we actually go and try and negotiate with him?

And if you look at it another way, look, they can continue going down this path, but the reality is. Iran holds the major Trump card, which is the Strait of Hamoose. Eventually we are going to have to sit down and have a negotiation with the Iranian.

And what Robert Pape was saying is that it would have been far better to do this and accept the original deal that was on the table than to go bomb When the reality is that Iran are now, to put it bluntly, a little bit annoyed about what's happened and are very much gonna be less likely. to want to agree a deal. Well, and forget about annoyed, there's also the real politic of this, which is they hold the Trump card, as you said.

And they know that America is in the escalation trap. So it's perfectly within reason that they they don't have to reopen the Straightfor Moose because it's not closed. Mm. It's the straight off from us is not closed. This is what people need to understand. What they've done is they effectively made it a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose. And don't let in the ships that they don't choose.

And this is where the problem is, because a lot of people say, Well, you know, there's a secret plan, there's a strategy. You know what this is really about? This is about screwing China and Russia because Iran can no longer send drones to Russia and China gets so much oil from Iran. Well the pro there are two problems with this. In terms of China, China is still getting the oil.

And in terms of Russia, okay, Russia is not getting Iranian drones, but they're making them themselves and have been for a long time using Iranian designs. And also, because of the pressure on the oil price. Russia th the the United States has lifted sanctions on Russia and Russia is now selling its oil in a way that it couldn't before. So This is actually helping Russia and it's not hurting China. Who it's really, really, really hurting is Europe, less so America, but Europe in particular.

And that's another concern because when you look at for instance the war in Ukraine, more money is now flowing into Russia, which means Russia will be able to buy. better armaments. It will be able to ramp up its efforts on the war on Ukraine. It will also mean as well that Europe is now torn because I mean look, the alliances between the US and Europe they've always They've been turbulent at times, karma at others. But for looking back over my lifetime, I think

these this alliance between the US and Europe has been its most fraught in mo in my lifetime certainly. So you're looking at the way that Europe the European leaders are behaving, you're looking at the way Trump is behaving And you're thinking to yourself, I mean the fractures are looking ever wider.

Net Zero's Fate, Energy Independence

And you're really worrying, could these fractures become permanent? And that would mean a massive, massive problem, particularly when it comes to a China, which is becoming ever stronger. ever m richer, and we are becoming weaker because our alliances are becoming more and more afraid, which is a very real concern. Because y take Britain, for example,

I mean, if we got invaded by Liechtenstein now with our armed forces, I'm not sure how good a fight we'd be able to give. We are severely weakened. And you're looking at Europe. Practically everyone, particularly, you know, Spain, Italy England, France or the UK, we're in real debt. We can't even muster the the resources to defend ourselves, let alone go and defend other countries.

And we saw that with attacking bases in Cyprus. Where it was like, Well, we can't defend you And the Cypriots were like, Well then what's the point in you having bases here if you literally can't defend us? Right. And look, whether you you are someone who l is super pro Trump or you're super anti Trump, actually it works both ways because you could say, Well, you know, Trump Trump is a is a is a a stupid asshole, he's doing all this stuff and this is really b

uh you know it's all his fault. Okay, but the problem is if you are someone who thinks European countries shouldn't be involved in this conflict, which personally I think makes a lot of sense if I'm being honest. The problem is, Europeans are going, Well, this is not our war and the Americans are going, Okay, well Ukraine's not our war and we've we've been the country that's contributed the most to that to to Ukraine's defence.

So if European countries expect America to defend Europe's border, You can see why that would come with some cross obligations the other way, right? So this fracturing is bad for everyone in my opinion. Um and it w it doesn't i and that's true irrespective of where you place the blame. Personally, I thought, for example, what both Trump and Marco Rubio said earlier in the year at Davos and at Munich.

Was actually broadly speaking true, which is European countries have been taking the piss. Mhm. As we say in the UK. They've been taking advantage of America. They've not funded their own defence properly. They've destroyed their own economies on but purely luxury beliefs like net zero.

Uh, which means they actually can't defend themselves anymore. Um, and I think that's all very true. But I also think This conflict plus the the hostile rhetoric from the US has pushed Europe away and it's just a fraud situation for the entire Western world as a result.

It is a fraught situation for the Western world. There is one positive that I would like to actually I know it's not on brand, but there is one positive, which is I do think and I hope this could be the death of net zero. Because you can have luxury belief.

For instance, we're recording this in West Hollywood. It's a beautiful place, you walk around. Why can't trans women be women? It's wonderful, who cares? I've got a b I've got a twelve dollar coffee in my hand, the sun's shining, the sun is gonna shine tomorrow. But if you literally can't afford to heat your house, and that might very well be the income for a large portion of people in the UK.

If energy becomes so expensive that businesses will eventually go out of business or struggle to function or stro and struggle to do the basic Eventually the bubble might pop on net zero and we think to ourselves, well look what's happening around the world. Look what's happening with the Strait of Hamoose. The reality is we have the potential to frack gas in our country. We can be we can move to become more energy independent.

And as a result of that, we are going to be more insulated from shock waves like the war in Iran. So there is the potential if we're looking at s this through a positive light, which I'm always trying to do. Of actually this might be an instance where the UK will wake up. It may not be the case, but there is that.

There is hopefully that potential. I hope that happens. I also see a lot of the pro net zero lunatics now saying uh the war in in Iran shows that we must make ourselves independent of fossil fuels.

Economic Catastrophe: Fertilizer, Oil, Gas

I mean you physically can't do it, but lunatics don't care about things like that. Look, let's talk about the economic side of it because um It's something that I think the overwhelming majority of people haven't appreciated. Mm-hmm. But the reality is, I mean, Neil Ferguson. frequent guest of the show who I think I think I'm being fair to Neil in saying he was broadly favorable about this conflict at the beginning. Mm-hmm. He has now written an article in the free press.

in which he basically breaks down why a global recession is pretty much inevitable at this point. Uh and his argument is almost every recession in history is caused by the primary form of energy dominant at that time, spiking in price. So when coal was the dominant um form of energy that we used, uh, a coal price spike, mainly due to coal coal miner strikes. Most of the recessions were caused by

Likewise, in our times when oil has been the primary uh fac uh energy that we use, oil spike pri uh oil price spikes have caused recessions. And his argument is we are now already at the point where that's gonna happen. Now let's talk about why.

Iran doesn't produce twenty percent of the world's oil. But if you again people should go back and watch the Robert Paper interview, the Strait of Hormuz is the the the place through which twenty percent of the world's oil is transported to the rest of the world from various Gulf countries. That's also true of I think twenty five percent of the world's liquid liquefied natural gas.

half of the world's traded fertilizer. I was talking to a friend of mine who's a farmer in Australia. He was saying they can't get enough fertilizer just to cover the planting they need to do now. And I it and we're not talking about the price has gone up. We're not talking about there's temporary delivery issues. They literally the country of Australia cannot get enough fertiliser to plant. the crops that they want to plant.

They're also having diesel shortages. He was saying and this guy, a very reasonable guy, is not some kind of prepper. He was saying, I'm getting more guns because at some point I worry I'm gonna have to protect my diesel stocks because people will try and steal some of them.

Because that's the situation we're headed to. And, you know, a good friend of the show, John Anderson, who's um former deputy prime minister of Australia, I mean he is livid about net zero, which has basically created these problems that they now have. Even though Australia has a a an im immense amount of its own energy res resources. They just refuse to use them, as we do in the UK. Um, I talked to a friend of mine who's a gas trader, you know,

The people who who are involved in all these different markets, they see this coming already. And it's important to understand, A, we're not anywhere near resolution. And B, even when there is a resolution, it will take a very long time, probably weeks if not months. for the situation to go back to normal. Which means the current oil prices, which are as we record this, just around a hundred dollars a barrel, which is a significant increase in what they were before the war.

If this carries on for a few months, you're guaranteed a world recession. But there's no guarantee that it won't get worse either. So economically, we're in a very bad place. And, you know, the fertiliser point doesn't get talked about enough. I mean Fertilizer, you might eat organic, which means no fertilizer, but to feed eight billion people, you need the fertilizer. And if you don't have the fertilizer, what happens to the people?

If you own gold and it's just sitting there not earning anything, then you need to hear this. What you're about to hear is not a normal gold ad. Today's sponsor is Monetary Metals and what they're doing is rethinking how gold is used. Traditionally, gold ownership is passive. You buy gold, store it, and hope it preserves value over time. But while it sits there, it doesn't do anything, and often you're paying storage or insurance fees just to hold it. Monetary metals approaches gold differently.

They allow gold owners to earn a yield on their gold, paid in gold. Not in dollars or pounds, but in physical gold ounces. The way this works is straightforward. Monetary metals connects gold owners with real productive businesses like refiners and jewelers that need gold to operate their businesses. Those businesses lease the gold and pay a yield back to the gold owner in gold. That means your gold isn't just sitting idle, it's being put to productive use.

And over time, you're earning more ounces of gold. You can earn up to four percent annual yield paid in gold, allowing your holdings to compound in ounces rather than currency. While your gold is earning yield, there are no storage or insurance fees charged. And you remain. You decide how much of your gold you want to deploy into lease opportunities and how much you want to keep undeployed. You can open an account with as little as 10 ounces of gold and start earning yields straight away.

In an environment where paper currencies lose purchasing power over time, Earning a yield in gold is a way of growing real wealth in real terms. To learn more, visit monetary dash metals dot com slash trigonometry or click the link in the description of this episode and see how you can earn up to four percent yield on gold with monetary metals. Put your goal to work. That site again is monetary dashmetals.com slash trigonometry.

Rwy'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw I mean without the fertilizer from the Gulf? Oh no, just fertilizer but just talking about how important fertilizer is. So just to say we produce half the food. Yeah. And s how important that is. And it's it's essential. Without it, we wouldn't be able to sustain the population that we currently have. I was also in the same article reading about

very senior person when it came to helium and dealing helium, a helium trader. And he compared the correct current economic situation to being on the beach. He said the sun is shining, not a cloud in the sky. But there's a tsunami coming. But you can't see it, but it's coming. You just don't feel it at the moment. But when it does arrive, Boy will we feel it. Right. And if you look at for instance Iran bombing the gas fields of Raslafan in Qatar.

That is responsible for around fifteen percent of the world's gas production liquid natur liquid gas production. And you think to yourself, what is effect is that gonna have on gas prices? That is going to have a major significant effect. And then they were also interviewing in this article the people who are working there who were saying It's going to take about three to five years.

for it to be up and running. And he went, that is the best case scenario three to five years. Because we can't repair anything until the war stops. a ceasefire is agreed because there is literally no point in us repairing something if tomorrow it can get bombed again. And Robert Pape's argument is if the United States escalates

What will happen is Iran will naturally then be forced to do more of that, which actually it doesn't want to do at this point. They will be forced to destroy more oil facilities in the Gulf Arab countries, more gas facilities in all all Arab countries.

Divergent Objectives: US Versus Allies

And This is where I think it's important that we address the conversation about the di that you raised earlier, which is the difference between the objectives of the United States. And the objectives of the allies of the United States in the region, not just Israel, but also the Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel. They're all behind continuing this bombing. And the reason is that their objectives uh quite understandably a different

to the United States. Uh Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel would be very happy for Iran to be pummeled pummeled into the ground, even if it doesn't address the nuclear issue. Because Iran is

a regional threat to their interest. Iran is an enemy of both Saudi Arabia and the U and of Israel in the region, and so using the help of the United States to bomb the sh out of all of their military facilities, destroy their military industrial complex, whittle down their rocket program, their ballistic program, get rid of their drone manufacturing, weaken them economically. That's all wonderful from a Saudi, UAE, less so Qatari, but definitely Israeli perspective.

US-Israel Relations: A Realignment Looms

And this is where I've got some very bad news for our pro-Israel friends, of whom we have many. Not anymore. We've talked to many, many people in the United States on camera and off, and I I have to report honestly, there are many, many people now in America who are not anti-Israel and they're definitely not anti-Semitic. Israel's interests are not the same as those of the United States.

And who I don't even necessarily agree with their analysis because I don't think Israel tricked America or manipulated Trump. I mean, it's it's ridiculous, right? Tiny country manipulating Amer I don't think that's true. But what I think is becoming very clear to me is if this conflict is successful, President Trump will get all the credit. If this conflict fails,

Yes, there will be repercussions domestically. The Republicans will probably lose the Senate and the House and probably the Presidency if this causes a global recession. But I think ultimately what this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel. and they will see that this conflict which caused so many problems down the line

done primarily for the benefit of Israel and they won't think about Saudi and the UAE and they won't think about the fact that the President of the United States is ultimately responsible. This will change people opinions people's opinions permanently. And we already see that from otherwise very reasonable and moderate people. And you it is understandable why they would why they would think that. Because if you think from Israel's point of view

Let's look at October the seventh. T happens in twenty twenty three. It was a devastating, horrific terrorist attack. That I don't think enough people in the West actually understand how awful it was, and also the deep levels of trauma that were inflicted upon Israel and the Israeli side. And they then went to war, which is a war that we both understood and about why it happened and why they carried it out in the way they did in Gaza. And also with Hezbollah as well.

And what I think the Israelis are thinking at this moment is this is a once in a generation opportunity. to get rid of the government that funded not only Hezbollah but Hamas and Fo and October the seventh. And for so for them it makes sense to do their very best right now while striking whilst the iron is hot. Going after the Ayatollah and the regime and nullifying it. And also, as well, it makes sense.

from a UAE, from a Saudi perspective, because Iran is basically like a neighbor that is mental. And every day you wake up and you think to yourself, What's he gone and done now? What has he set fire to the fence? Has he attacked someone? Has he Eventually you go, I can't live like this anymore. Let's call the police. Exactly. And let's get this dealt with.

Fears of Iraq 2.0 and Blame

That is not as much in America's interest nor in the American people's interest. And there's going to be a lot of people who are saying to themselves, look, twelve day war, fine. Nuclear weapons, that has the potential to destabilise a region, that has the potential to give the Iranian government far more power than I'm comfortable with. Totally get it.

But when we're talking about boots on the ground, maybe we don't know, that automatically changes everything. And then there's going to be a lot of people thinking to themselves, is this going to be Iraq 2.0 or potentially even worse? Well, Iraq didn't have the leverage that Iran has. Yeah. Iraq didn't have the Strait of Hormone. Um so that's a critical difference. And so if you put boots on the ground Uh it's hard to imagine it being less bad. than a rock at the very least.

Um but even short of putting boots on the ground. I mean Trump is clearly trying to end this and get an off ramp, which is what Robert Pape said he should do, which is what Mike Baker said he would do on our show, which is what Ted Cruz said. I mean Ted Cruz said and you know uh I wonder how

um how prudent it was of him to say this, given where this might be headed. He said, Well, if this conflict is still going on by by November when the midterms happen, we've failed. I think we were say it's exact. Something's gone terribly wrong. I hope it doesn't go to that, but either way, whether if it's a global recession or whether if it escalates further, that is not going to be a good outcome. And Israel will get a lot of the blame.

And I can see from uh BB's perspective, you know, he's been dreaming about destroying the regime for forty years. I don't blame him. If I was the Prime Minister of Israel, I would want to deal with the people who did October seventh in the most With extreme prejudice, let's say, to quote uh apocalypse now. But in the long term, this has the potential, I suspect, over time, over generations.

to reset the relationship between the United States and Israel in a way that will not be beneficial to Israel at all. And That I think should be a real worry if you are actually pro Israel. If you're interested in the long term of survival of the state of Israel, that is a concern you actually ought to be thinking.

and when you Again, this isn't data, this is anecdotal evidence, but we talked to one of the great things about doing this show, one of the things I love the most about it, is the connections that we make with people. Not just people on the right, but people on the left, people on the centre, libertarians, young, old, male, female, black, white, whatever.

And w I I I really treasure the conversations that I have. I'm very offended you didn't mention trans. The three trans people who watch our show. But when I talk to people about There is a generational divide that is ever widening between the way that young people, so I'm talking about people 35 and under, view Israel, and how people 35 and older view Israel. And it's not just left and right, people on the right.

who are thirty five and under, are highly skeptical of Israel, to put it mildly, and its policies. And my concern is the more this carries on,

Anti-Semitism and Misuse of Labels

The more ill will is directed to Israel, inevitably the more ill will be directed to Jewish people, and the more Jewish people and the West will be at risk from Islamic terrorism. That Islamist terrorism. That is a very real concern for me. Because we've been in this country a matter of weeks and we've already seen, just before we arrived, an is Islamist terrorist in Osti. We saw what could have been a horrific terrorist attack happen in Michigan where a man drove a truck loaded with explosives.

and try to ram a synagogue with it. And we also saw a thwarted nail bomb attack in New York. And the more this carries on, the more people die, the more that we see the Middle East become destabilized. We are going to see is Islamist terrorist spikes and particular anti Semitic attacks. And y I'm glad you brought up the the word anti Semitism because I think this is really worth saying as well, and I hope that people can hear it in the spirit in which it's intended. But

It's important to distinguish between different things. Anti Semitism is a real thing, and I think it's un undoubtedly the case that we see more of it than we've seen at any point in my lifetime. Agreed. And it's horrific. And at the same time, if you criticise the foreign policy of Britain That doesn't make you anti British. If you criticize the foreign policy of the United States, that doesn't make you anti American. And if you criticize the foreign policy

of Israel doesn't make you necessarily anti Israel or anti Semitic. Now there are many anti Semitic and anti Israel people who criticise Israel's foreign policy. But that does not mean that if you don't agree with everything Israel has done, you are anti-Semitic. And my worry is, I see a lot of people now. who just they don't bother having the argument anymore. They just say this person is a bad person. I mean, right as we recorded this, uh Joe Rogan has just had Dave Smith on.

Our disagreements with Dave on this issue are pretty much on the record. I've debated him on Ukraine, I've debated him on the twelve day war on Piers Morgan's show. We've had him on this show to debate him. I don't agree with everything Dave says about the Middle East. But I do believe his arguments have to be taken on on the merits of the arguments. And all that happens now, every time I open Twitter, I see people who I otherwise like and respect just calling

Those two people names. And I don't see what that achieves. And there are people, you know, I don't like to go after people by name individually, but when I see some of the American sort of pro-Israel commentators, some of them, the way they behave.

And the way they just insult and attack anyone that doesn't agree with them and don't actually take on any of their arguments, I don't think that's helping. And calling everyone anti Semitic that simply disagrees with you about foreign policy I I don't think that makes The problem of anti Semitism better. I would argue from an outsider perspective watching this, it makes it worse.

And we just lived through ten years where the label of racist and transphobic and homophobic and misogynist was thrown around with such I nearly said gay abandonment LGBTQIA plus abandoned constant in thank you. Exactly. That no one actually believes those words have any meaning anymore. And so when I say, for example, that someone like Darrell Cooper, the I nearly said historian. This guy who has all these theories about Hit how Hitler was

uh provoked by Churchill and Churchill's the greatest villain of World War Two, etcetera. When I say he's a Nazi apologist, because I know what the word Nazi apologist means, the term Nazi apologist means. People can't hear that anymore because they just think I'm I'm I'm just insulting him. I'm just having a go at him. and uh attacking him. And this is what will happen to the term anti Semitic if people keep using it in this way.

And I'm really worried about it because when you misapply words, what you do is you erode the word itself. And then you can't actually accurately describe the phenomenon and then you can't say Nick Fuentes is anti Semitic because people go, well you just call Joe Rogan anti Semitic, or you just call Dave Smith anti Semitic, or you just call someone who criticized Israel attacking a gas facility anti Semitic. Well, if everyone is anti Semitic, then no one is.

Conspiracy Theories Undermine Discourse

And there's another component to this, which is when Let's go back to work times. Immediately, when you said something that was against the prevailing narrative... Criticising BLEP. That automatically meant you were racist. So the vast majority of people quite rightly don't want to be called racist because they're not racist and it's a very upsetting thing to have a label put on you that is not accurate and is also as damaging reputationally as being called a racist.

So what do you do?You simply don't voice your opinion But that doesn't mean your opinion's going. And in fact you're probably somewhat aggravated by not being able to express. And what happens is you become resentful. And resentment rapidly turns into anger, which turns into bitterness, which turns into something far more cancerous and dangerous. The reality is, is that we all have opinions which are

Sometimes wrong, sometimes stupid, sometimes ill-thought out. The only way we get better opinions is by being able to have honest conversations with people. And we we do it all the time. It's one of the things I treasure about our friendship where I go, Well what do you think about this? And you go, Well what do you about this? And what about that? And I'm like, I never thought of that and what about

But that's how you get better. That's how you get better opinions. That's how you become more informed. And the reality is that process never stops. And nor should it, because that's how you become better as a human being. You get better opinions. And not only that, you get you are able to think better and more effectively. Your process becomes streamlined and sharp. But when you start shutting people down, as we saw with wokeness, then eventually what you will get...

is a backlash. Which is what you are seeing right the way through social media and in the politics in our country, which we'll come to a little bit later on. And that's a very real concern for you. And by the way, th we shouldn't separate what we've just said from the fact that there are clearly people who lie about Israel for a living. Mm-hmm.

And there are people who say things about Israel that aren't true for whatever their agenda is. Joe Kent, for example, this this counterterrorism guy who resigned uh from Trump's administration. I by all accounts, this is a guy who served eleven tours for y so I you know me.

I am pro military people all the way and even when I'm not in my own country, if I find out someone served in the armed forces of their country, I always say thank you for your service. It's just it's just how I think about if you're willing to put your body on the line for your country Irrespective of my agreement or disagreement with your views, that to me is like you my level of respect for you goes up tremendously. Of course. He's also saying things about

Charlie Kirk and Israel or insinuating things about Charlie. They just factually incorrect or just lies, right? Yep. He's insinuating that somehow the investigation into Charlie Koch's murder wasn't properly looked into because there's an Israeli connection and he would know even though he had nothing to do with the investigation or the FBI would whose job it is. Anyway, he's just making things up as far as I can tell. And there are other people.

in the media commentary space who who are so throthing frothing at the mouth anti Israel that they are now, I think some of them anti Semitic. That is also true. But you cannot take the label that is appropriate to apply to them. And then apply it to whole swathes of other people who just have a question.

about something or they maybe don't understand something or maybe they've heard a narrative that seems reasonable to them and when you actually talk to them and you say, Well, have you considered this aspect of it? They might change their mind. You know where one thing is not gonna change their mind? Is being called names.

People do not change their mind when you call them names. That's not to say you shouldn't accurately describe people who fit the description. But these labels are now being so badly misapplied, I really worry that it's actually creating more anti-Semitism. I resisted createen for years because I assumed it was for people who spend three hours a day in the gym and refer to themselves in the third person. Turns out Francis Fosser was wrong on this.

The research on creatine has moved way beyond the gym. For years it was a preserve of bodybuilders and sprinters, but it turns out creatine is something your body makes naturally and uses as fuel, not just for your muscles. But for your brain, your energy levels, your mood, your memory. The problem is that from your 40s onwards, your body produces less and less of it.

And you feel it. The slower recovery, the afternoon fog, the sense that you're running on slightly less than you used to. Talk to anyone who actually knows this stuff. And they'll tell you the same thing, not all creatine is equal. And most of it isn't doing what you think it is. The formula matters. specifically where it actually gets into your cells.

And activates once it's there. That's exactly what qualia creatine plus is built around. Two clinically studied forms of creatine, combined with electrolytes and sea salt, designed to solve the whole problem, not just half. It. I've just started taking it and once you understand how the formulation works You wonder why nobody built it this way sooner? Go to qualialife.com

Slash trig for fifty percent off and user code trig for an extra fifteen percent on top of that. That's q-u-a-l-i-a-l-i-f e dot com slash trig. No trig. Thanks Aqualia for sponsoring the show.

Political Backlash and Alliance Fractures

Agreed. And like I said before, it will create a bank and it will create a backlash against Israel and against Jewish people because unfortunately there are people in society and online who equate Israel with Jewish people and vice versa. And once they do that, then we get into quite a worrying position because they see an attack

on Jewish people as an attack on Israel. Yes. And as a way to punish Israel for what they're doing, even though Jewish people who I don't know, who live in Michigan, who are simply going to a synagogue, many of whom I suspect Have very little, if no connection at all, with Israel itself. And what that creates is every Jewish person becomes a target. And we really, really need to be careful in order to dial down this rate.

And that comes from one side, but it also comes from the pro Israeli side. And if people come to you with a concern or a worry or a criticism of Israel, what you need of Israel's policy, you need to think to yourself, right. How can I engage with it in good faith? But number two, is it a valid criticism? And also if it's not a valid criticism, how do you engage with it in a productive way? For example, people say uh Israel tricked Trump into this war.

I'd like them to explain the mechanism by which they think that happened. And I haven't heard it persuaded th there's always a bit missing, right? So when we interviewed Mehdi Hassan, for example, he said, Well, you know, the Israel lobby is so powerful, you can see the Democrat politicians They are pro Israel on the whole, and Democrat voters are anti Israel on the whole. How do you explain that? Actually, that gap.

between what the elites of a party think and what the voters think exists on many, many other issues. Right. That have nothing to do with lobbying necessarily because people who are in charge of a party and the voter base often have different perspectives on things for all sorts of reasons. Now, lobbying is definitely part of that, but that doesn't mean that that's the the entire explanation of that.

Or for example, that people say, Well, Israel dragged America into this conflict. How? Explain it to me. What power does BB Netanyahu have over President Trump? Does he have a picture of him with prostitutes somewhere? 뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐..뭐.. you get this conspiratorial

retard nonsense that you get from some people on the kind of online right, where they don't actively say, but what they imply is that actually Trump is being blackmailed. Or Joe Kent, I think, implies even that uh Trump is afraid of being assassinated by Mossad, right? Because no one ever explains the mechanism by which this tiny, relatively poor country, Israel, manipulates the most powerful country in the world.

Yeah and and the question is well if it's the money that they spend. There are countries in the world that spend way, way, way more money lobbying the American government. They don't seem to have the same effect. I mean, Qatar spends a ton of money here.

China spends a ton of money here. The Ukrainians obviously uh are trying to get America to do what they want. The Russians are trying to get everyone in the world wants America to do their thing. And yet this one tiny country miraculously somehow is able to do it.

Just I this there's not a good explanation and that's where you can poke and prod at it. But just calling people names, I just don't think this is helpful at all. And you touched on it. Shutting down a conversation, what it effectively does is it creates a vacuum. And we all know nature abhors a vacuum and what fills the vacuum is

people theorizing. And quite naturally what happens is that will lend itself towards conspiracy. Because conspiracies are glamorous. They're exciting. They're sexy. That's why conspiracy theory content is one of the most viewed types of content on YouTube because it triggers the amygdala. You're like, oh, this is exciting. This is dangerous.

Well, it doesn't mean that it's right or it's correct, but that's all you are doing. When you shut down conversations, you're allowing conspiracy theories to flourish. And I don't need to be the most perceptive person in the world to go, conspiracy theories, Jewish people tend to go together. And we need to be very, very, very careful because If we don't handle this correctly, if we stop sh if we start shutting people down, if we continue down this path of smearing people.

The conspiracy theories will only rise and they will become more prevalent and they will become more anti Semitic in their nature and that again will lead to dangerous outcomes in the real world.

UK's Economic and Political Fallout

If we look closer to home, this war in Iran could have very, very real political consequences. We see in the UK the conversation now tends to be, look, life has become more unaffordable for the vast majority of people, which is true. We're in a cost of living crisis, a housing crisis, all these things are true. Wat de hard left doet is dat we nodig hebben.

The reason we can't afford things is because the billionaires and the millionaires are not paying their fair share. Therefore, we need higher taxes because that's the only way we can redistribute wealth in order to make society fairer for all. Now, the reality is that simply won't work. Quite simply because if you decide to tax these people and tax these people incredibly hard, they will leave. And you can agree or disagree with that, but that is a reality.

But what worries me is that more and more people will be become persuaded to this line of thinking the more unaffordable their lives become. partly due to the war in Iran and rising oil, energy and food prices. And that is a very real concern. And then we have political parties like the Green Party. who will make y who will make hay with this particular argument. And a lot of people will be persuaded about it and we're gonna see more and more people go over to the populist left.

And that is a very real worry because if they as if they become more powerful, then what we're going to see, in my opinion, is an economic catastrophe. Well right. I mean if uh i the recession happens then I mean th the I mean the Greens it people don't want wanna hear this, particularly people on the right, but the party with the biggest momentum in British politics as we sit here now is the Green Party.

There's no denying it. Mm-hmm. Reforma leading the polls, but the Greens are second from from very low numbers, if you look at the last election, which was only a year and a bit ago. So if there's the economic impact that we suspect there will be, you're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. Uh and that will probably be replicated across the European continent. Um And then you are kind of in the nineteen twenties, nineteen thirties territory.

I and I'm not saying I'm not saying it's the rise of fascism or the rise of Stalin, exactly, but you are in a point where the entirety of the center's broken down and everybody wants a fake, simple solution to very complex problems. Um and people in Britain will absolutely vote for uh the lunatic fringe far left, as long as the lunatic fringe far left points the fingers at the people they don't like and blames them for the consequences of this conflict. And also

Zak Polansky is very critical of Trump and he's very a very anti Israel. And so what that will see is a gr is an increased fracture in alliances between the UK and America. And again, we as a country economically We're degrading at at a rate which I find profoundly worrying. As a British person.

Well we we recorded an interview with Dwarkesh Patel, who is they call him Silicon Valley's favorite podcaster, and one of the questions that our supporters asked in the Substack section was about Britain and AI. And when you said to him, you know, how how well is Britain doing on AI, he literally laughed. Because of course you can't involve yourself in this new growing industry if you've got very, very high energy prices as we do.

Um and even though we have one AI company in the UK, their competitive disadvantage is so huge. and will become even worse if this uh economic situation deteriorates, that we're just we're not gonna be able to have a functioning economy. And look, we should be honest with people. I you know I don't see Britain as a viable place to live for anyone who wants to run any kind of business, including a small business like ours.

if you've got a Zak Polanski premiership. I just I don't I think ever I think at that point, even people like us who are desperate to stay and want to make Britain better. we would have to look at that and say, there is no future for us here. And that's a very real concern because it's not just and there'll be people, you know, making jokes in the comments, fair enough.

But where it's not as if we'll be an isolated case. There will be huge swathes of entrepreneurs, people who create jobs, who create wealth, who create opportunities for others, who will look at the economic situation in the UK and go This is no longer viable. Well hold on, you say we won't be an isolated case. We're an isolated case now.

We're an isolated case now. Everyone who does a big podcast in the UK, when they get to not even the size we have now, smaller, what do they do? They leave. They leave. So we are already an isolated. Yeah. In that we are desperate to stay and try and make Britain better so that our families can live there and enjoy themselves there.

I mean, when I was on Stephen Bartlett's show the last time, Dire of a CO, we talked about this. I said to him, We've never talked about this, Stephen, but I bet you can name fifty people off the top of your head who've left the UK in the last few years, who are entrepreneurs. business owners and I was like yeah of course so

If you've got an economic problem of the kind that we've described, followed by the election of the populist left, you will lose everyone. Everyone who creates jobs and can take their business somewhere else. Agreed. And when you think about it, our c our economy is essentially dependent on financial services.

How many of them are gonna stick around if that happens? If we get these kind of taxation, if we get this kind of politics come in? We're essentially going to resur return to the nineteen seventies. Yeah. Where the top rate of tax was ninety percent for the t for for the highest earners. And we should say this man, like look, we we've we in the last couple of years we've become fairly successful. We pay a lot of tax.

I don't mind. I don't mind effectively paying, you know, I don't know what the effect of tax rate exactly, but it's probably something like forty percent, let's say. Let's say it's fifty percent. I actually don't mind paying fifty percent tax to live in a country with good infrastructure, with safety, uh, with good schools, with good health care, with a functioning government, etcetera.

But we don't have any of those things anymore. And we're getting poorer all the time. And now you wanna bring in people who are gonna make things a lot worse on top of that. in keeping your family in that situation if you c if you had the option to have them somewhere else. To say nothing about the fact that obviously, as you've just discussed, you know, the problem of

Isla Islamist terrorism, but just integration more broadly is very acute in Britain in a way that it's not even uh uh it's not remotely like this in the US and in many other parts of the world. So you put all that together This has the potential, this conflict, if it goes badly, has the potential to make worse things that are already very bad for people in Britain and for the country itself.

Desperation Driving Political Rhetoric

Agreed. Agreed. And that's why when I look at this conflict. I'm not hopeful, but I really do hope that over the next weeks and months They can sit down in Pakistan or another country if the wo if the talks in Pakistan don't come to anything. Don't come to fruition and actually get this sorted out. Because the longer we carry on down this path, the worse it's going to be for everyone involved. But particularly Europe, particularly the UK and particularly our economies and our politics.

Because what we need right now is a lurch away from these types of extremist policies and get back to something more calm and reasonable and stable and sane. And that means an economic policy that actually works for the majority of people, not appealing to people's worst and base instincts.

and point the finger at others and going the reason that this country is screwed economically is because of this person or this billionaire. When the reality is the world and life is far more complicated than that. We need to have people who are of the elite. whether it's media or politics, who are actually able to dial down the rhetoric and begin to have better conversations about geopolitics. You can't dial down the rhetoric.

You can't dial down the rhetoric if things are getting worse. It's not gonna happen. Why would people dial dial down the rhetoric if the situation in the country is getting worse, not better? The reason the rhetoric is dialed up is people are desperate. Yeah. The reason the right is as vocal about immigration as it is, is that people feel that the situation has become desperate. And they're right.

They're right. I mean we we had in the course of this trip Robert Green, who I think in terms of his politics, particularly on immigration, there's like I don't know if he's pro open borders exactly, but he's but he's as close to that as you can get without being actually pro open borders. And he said when he went to France he looked around at Paris and said, This country is losing its national identity.

People in Britain, a lot of them, particularly those on the right, feel like the country is losing its national identity because of the scale of mass immigration that we had. And people on the left, and frankly, across the political spectrum, who are not billionaires. And who didn't have huge assets that have inflated over the last twenty or thirty years?

feel that the economic situation is desperate. And they're right, because we have got poorer since two thousand eight, and we certainly haven't got richer since two thousand eight on average. Um And you can perfectly understand people's sense of frustration and the fact that their living standards haven't risen in basically twenty years. And now you've got this potential economic disaster looming as well. You put all that together, no one's gonna dial down the red check main.

Call for Rational Dialogue, Truth

That's why you have to fix the actual problems. Yeah. But I was talking also about the way we talk about geopolitic and Israel and all of the rest of it. What we've tried to do on our show is provide an antidote to that and go, look, these are contentious subjects and these are contentious issues, but there is a way to do this.

and actually have a t a conversation like we do with Dave Smith or like we did with Mehdi about who we disagree with on many different things. But ultimately Assume good faith in the person who you're talking to. and actually try and see if you can come to some kind of agreement or if not. Maybe you can learn or change or alter. Or or in you know, sometimes you have someone on and Media's a good example. Uh our job is not

to uh challenge every single thing that he says, even if we don't agree, but it's to show you what his perspective is. And you can like it, you can hate it, whatever. Uh but we have to address people's actual arguments instead of just this mud slinging that you see.

Um and even, you know, I've obviously been very critical of Tucker Carlson for a long time, but even there, I criticize the things that he says and the actions that he takes. I don't call him names and I don't think that works at all.

Uh I I don't I don't think people uh you know, maybe I'm wrong, maybe in criticizing some of his arguments I probably also call them names. I don't have I ever called them names? I don't think so. Maybe I have. We'll find out. Uh the the internet will fact check me on this. But my broader point is You have to address people's arguments. Of course. And not enough of that is happening. So look, we'll continue to cover this uh I suspect unfortunately this conflict will run. I hope it doesn't.

But if it does, we will continue to speak to different people with different perspectives in order to to come to some un better understanding of where we are. Just like we did with the war in Gaza, where you we we took a full year really before commenting on it at all. This I think is more immediate and the consequences are much more impactful on the rest of the world and us.

So we'll keep covering it and we'll uh you know, I appreciate that Um not everyone who is a fan of our show will agree with what we've laid out here. And that is the right. We've done this many times. You know, I remember when we criticized BLM in the summer of twenty twenty, some people didn't like it. When we criticized January the sixth after that, the people who loved us criticizing BLM didn't like it. And we go through this.

over time. But the only thing we can do is speak the truth as we see it at the time and that's what we're gonna carry on doing. Absolutely. And uh hopefully everything will calm down. And uh the rest of twenty twenty six will be smooth sailing. It's only it's only March, believe it or not.

This transcript was generated by Metacast using AI and may contain inaccuracies. Learn more about transcripts.
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android