SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer
Niels and Andrew Beer discuss the broken 60/40 investment paradigm and the shift towards
Nov 29, 2025•1 hr 6 min
Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade.
Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge.
Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
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Episodes
IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird
In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caugh...
Nov 26, 2025•1 hr
SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than i...
Nov 22, 2025•1 hr 17 min
UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge
Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, an...
Nov 19, 2025•1 hr 4 min
SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in ...
Nov 15, 2025•59 min
GM91: Inside China’s Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus
China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the...
Nov 12, 2025•1 hr 1 min
SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git
What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and ...
Nov 08, 2025•1 hr 3 min
GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s u...
Nov 05, 2025•1 hr 11 min
OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz
In this bonus episode, Dave Druz recounts his fascinating six-month experience living and learning with legendary trader Ed Seykota. He unveils Seykota's truly discretionary, non-systematic trading method, emphasizing chart patterns, instinct, and profound psychological understanding over algorithms. Druz describes Seykota's unique teaching style and the personal struggles he faced trying to replicate it, highlighting critical lessons on optimal bet sizing, managing drawdowns, and the necessity of aligning one's trading approach with personal psychology.
Nov 03, 2025•41 min
SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas
As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and ...
Nov 01, 2025•59 min
OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz
In this insightful conversation, Dave Druz, a legendary trader who built a systematic approach over 40 years, reveals his distinct philosophy, arguing he’s not a trend follower but profits by standing opposite commercial hedgers. He details his journey from an ER physician to a successful fund manager, emphasizing the critical role of portfolio construction, managing volatility, and a client-first business model that chose sustainability over scale. Druz also explains the unexpected reason behind his firm's eventual closure.
Oct 29, 2025•1 hr 37 min
SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a techn...
Oct 25, 2025•1 hr 17 min
UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan
Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the te...
Oct 22, 2025•1 hr 7 min
SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne
Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and ...
Oct 18, 2025•1 hr 2 min
GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory ...
Oct 15, 2025•1 hr 1 min
SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend f...
Oct 11, 2025•1 hr 17 min
GM88: Cycles of Promise and Pain: Argentina’s Unfinished Lesson ft. Nicolas Dujovne
Argentina’s history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging mark...
Oct 08, 2025•59 min
SI368: Valuation Has Left the Room ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI’s misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gol...
Oct 04, 2025•1 hr 5 min
IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu
China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial strategy? Kevin Coldiron welcomes back Dr. Zoe Liu for a nuanced look at how Beijing is managing external pressure, internal control, and the creeping disruption of dollar-backed stablecoins. Behind the headlines is a deeper story about surveillance, capital flight, and the boundaries of monetary sover...
Oct 01, 2025•1 hr 3 min
SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer
Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behavior and the backdrop it’s unfolding against. From drone incursions over Denmark to political fragmentation and a rising tolerance for systemic risk, they explore why nothing seems to break - and what that complacency might be masking. Along the way, they unpack Bouchard’s inelastic market hypothesis...
Sep 27, 2025•1 hr 7 min
UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking tools once reserved for institutions, Vlad outlines how Robinhood is positioning retail for a different kind of market regime. Futures, short selling, 24-hour options, AI-driven trade simulation, and embedded social features aren’t just upgrades - they’re signals. With market structure evolving and a ...
Sep 24, 2025•41 min
SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the d...
Sep 20, 2025•1 hr 2 min
ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson
Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation’s structura...
Sep 17, 2025•1 hr 4 min
SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski
Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Al...
Sep 13, 2025•56 min
GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong
Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independen...
Sep 10, 2025•1 hr 5 min
SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert
What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this i...
Sep 06, 2025•1 hr 12 min
IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz
What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet colla...
Sep 03, 2025•1 hr 1 min
SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas
As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protec...
Aug 30, 2025•1 hr
OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen
Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conver...
Aug 27, 2025•48 min
SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git
Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act ...
Aug 23, 2025•1 hr 8 min
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