Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse for April sixteenth, twenty twenty six. Bitcoins sitting at seventy four thousand dollars and the shorts are absolutely piling in. Got a lot to unpack today, but first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's what's happening. Bitcoin funding rates just hit their most negative reading since twenty twenty three.
If you're not familiar with funding rates, they're basically the fee that flows between longs and shorts in perpetual futures markets. When rates go deeply negative like this, it means shorts are paying longs to hold their positions. That's not conviction, that's crowding. And here's the thing. The last two times funding got this negative Bitcoin was within days of a local bottom, when everyone who wants to be short already is there's nobody left to sell the squeeze rights itself. Now,
I want to be careful. Macro headwinds are real, and a crowded short can stay crowded longer than your margin account survives. But the setup gets your attention. Price is sitting just under seventy four thousand, basically flat on the day The shorts haven't been rewarded yet, they're paying to wait. So where does that leave the broader market? Pretty quiet? Honestly,
Ethereum just above twenty three hundred, basically unchanged. Solana is the one name worth mentioning up about two percent, leading the majors total market cap around two point six trillion, flat. Bitcoin dominance at fifty seven percent, also flat. The more interesting picture is in the narrative data meme tokens up seventeen percent over the last seven days, gaming tokens up
ten percent, AI tokens down four percent. That's a real rotation capital moving out of last cycle's hottest narrative into pure sentiment plays. Prediction markets are pricing out the optimistic scenarios two two percent odds on bitcoin hitting five hundred thousand by year end, just eight and a half percent on three FED rate cuts this year. The money is betting on more sideways grind. Let's start with the supply wall right in front of bitcoin. Exchange inflows are spiking
as price approaches. Seventy six thousand short term holders are queuing at the exit. These are people who bought between seventy five and eighty two thousand during the last run and have been underwater. Since. The question isn't whether that wall exists. It does. The question is whether demand is strong enough to eat through it. If Bitcoin closes above seventy six thousand on solid volume in the next forty
eight hours, that supply got absorbed. If it gets rejected twice, a retest of the low seventies becomes the more likely near term scenario. Next Drift protocol. Drift got hit by a major exploit, and instead of dying quietly, it raised one hundred and forty eight million dollars from Tether and partners then switched it to its entire stable coin infrastructure from Circles USDC to Tether's Tether. That's not a recovery,
that's a pivot. Tether becoming the primary liquidity provider for a major Salona purpse exchange is a meaningful shift in how DeFi is structured. Circle loses a flagship integration, Tether deepens its on chain presence, Watch drifts open interest and user counts over the next week. If they were covered at pre exploit levels, the bet paid off. If not, the exploit did reputational damage. The capital alone can't fix Now.
Bitcoin quantum vulnerability. Developers are proposing BIP three six y one, a plan to freeze wallets that are vulnerable to quantum computing attacks. A meaningful chunk of early bitcoin, including coins that almost certainly belong to soadosh sits in wallets using older cryptography that a powerful enough quantum computer could crack.
BIP three six' one would freeze those wallets before that becomes a. Problem the counter argument From bitmex's research team is that a freeze could be, weaponized locking out legitimate owners who simply haven't. Upgraded no clean, answer but serious developers debating this publicly means quantum risk has graduated from thought experiment to active protocol. Concern two quick regulatory, notes the UK's fca opened a consultation on crypto. Rules actual
rules are probably twelve to eighteen months. Away South korea is moving. FASTER a live government pilot of tokenized deposits for public spending planned FOR q. Four that's not a white, paper that's a treasury department putting real money on chain and seeing what. Breaks europe, Talks asia runs pilots quick. Hits france is doubling security at crypto conferences after a
wave of physical attacks on. Executives trump Backed World Liberty financial is proposing a vesting schedule to calm frustrated token, holders And ohio's casino regulator just Find calshie five million. Dollars winning the federal battle with THE cftc doesn't mean the states are done, fighting all, Right before we get into the, risks quick word from our. Sponsor, okay we're.
Back let's talk about what to watch. For three risks worth. Maiming, first the supply wall at seventy six, thousand a large cohort of holders bought between seventy five and eighty two, thousand and if demand can't absorb that selling, pressure the rejection could be. Sharp, Second tether's EXPANDING d five foot. Print drift's pivot is one data, point but If tether ever faces a redemption stress, event the contagion path THROUGH
DeFi is now significantly wider than it was a year. Ago, third memes up seventeen percent in seven, days WHILE ai tokens bleed four. Percent sentiment driven rallies reverse faster than they. Build If bitcoin stalls at seventy six, thousand while memes are still, running the most speculative assets get hit first when sentiment. Turns three things to watch over the next. Week, first how bitcoin handles seventy six thousand that test is probably coming in the next forty eight to seventy two,
hours and how price responds sets the directional tone for everything. Else, Second South korea's blockchain deposit token pilot procurement and technical specs expected in the coming weeks ahead of THE q four. LAUNCH a sovereign government putting tokenized deposits into live spending is a bigger real world adoption signal than MOST DeFi
protocols will ever. Produce, THIRD bip three six point. One if major bitcoin core contributors engage seriously within the next seven, days the quantum vulnerability debate moves from social media to the actual protocol. Roadmap that's the pulse For april. Sixteenth if you want the full written breakdown with all this so, data subscribe to the newsletter at tokenmetrics dot com link in the show, notes and if this was, useful share with someone who's watching the same charts you. Are this
is educational, content non investment. Advice always do your own. Research I'm, Alex see you next. Time