Welcome to Wembley for the This week's like a preview of the sky Bet League two player final taking place on Monday, as we all expected.
Of course, AFC Wimbledon taking on warsaw It Monday Monday. Of course, were you celebrating?
You come to the game.
I'm coming to the game.
I just live and breathe the UFLO damn weekend. It's the best weekend of all. I joke there because I think I backed a chest Field not Cawi final and.
It's basically played as we thought.
We couldn't call the League two after we did our right where we put up Chesterfield to win. I did say in the office, are we all Jimmy right? I haven't listened to the League one one. Go back and listen to our League one preview or watch it because there's a segment of why Jimmy is so giddy at the moment on focus with such a star in a crazy I did say that have we hopeful? Look the fact that Walsall didn't win their last day with the season.
Are they actually back?
And what has followed is two wins in both of their playoff semi finals against Chesterfield.
I'm glad You've brought this up because I wanted to just dive into a bit of the expected goals data because I know you love it on this.
Why is that bird?
Jimmy, guys, concentrate on the bed.
I'll talk to you what you do this.
So I'll just try and find where the bird's gone.
So, yeah, walsall finished and they were really shit.
In terms of the results.
Yes, well, the underlying process was completely the opposite. So the last twelve games of the league season, not including the two playoff games, they were actually the sixth best team in the league based on the underlying data.
So the process was still there.
They were just getting some bad breaks and being a little bit unlucky, whether I'd be not finishing chances or opponents taking in the chances. So having said that, I think if they carry on playing the same way, the play really well against Chesterfield twice, I'd be quite confident back in the mere because effectively you've got over the course of the season.
I had this as well.
They've actually collected the most expected points over the course of the season, even more than Dounka through.
Obviously got promoted.
Their expected goal difference beginning was the best in the division, so you've got the basically the best team in the league. Maybe I've refound a bit of confidence obviously, form winning form three in a row. I'll be looking at back in the May. I think they're a great bet.
I believe I'm going to I'm going to say this, but Jake Stata kind of makes sense because I think walstill just looked like they were short of confidence then just looked terrified of playing football, and it seemed like that was the reason behind the downfall. Ultimately, it just gone to a point where they just did not want to play football and felt like they just did not want to have the ball whatsoever.
Yeah, I think you can't.
You can't argue with the fact that whether you want to read too much into data or not enough into it that althoughother they were a team that were miles here at the top of League two and now they've rediscovered a bit of form. So really like they ought to be favorites going into this game, but they're the outsiders.
So it's a very.
Simple bet to back them at above two to one. I think you can get with some firms to win in ninety minutes. The thing that I would be slightly wary of and personally I just would not back the outcome in the League two. It's just been just far, far too tricky this season and the two legs against Chesterfield.
The thing that changed for Walsall is and the thing that you can kind of add extra context to in how a team's data is going to appear is they just kept falling behind in all these matches that they weren't winning, and then of course you're chasing the game, you're racking up chances, so it can appear like you are performing better than you are. In that first leg against Chesterfield, they managed to score two early goals just
changes the outcome of the game completely. They scored with the first two shots in the match and then they.
Just absorbed pressure.
Chesterfield hit the crossbar twice, played really well and in these really really small windows of time, everything becomes more pronounced that they managed to hold on. Had they not held on in that final twenty five minutes against Chesterfield in the first leg, we could be talking about a very very different situation here. The same happened in the
second leg. Chesterfield played really really well for a period of time, had a striker up front and couldn't score didn't take the chances Walter will get away with it. They get to the final, they're going to play a Wimbledon team that just basically don't conceive goals and they've got the best keeper in the league. So are they going to get their noses in front in the same way as they against Chesterfield? Very very different, So I'd just be steering clear of it personally.
Jimmy say you away from the third who is your area? Yeah?
Well, you know what, I always say, You're only as good as your last game, and you always.
Say that always, Mate.
I should have it tattooed on my forehead because I'm just sick of saying it so often.
Just point, just do that. What does it say bout?
Yeah? But I just I couldn't get away from the fact heading into the playoff campaign that Wilsfall squanderd a twelve point cushion at the top of the league.
I thought that was their season, but we all did.
And it's not really a trumpet because it lost in the most dire way. But reckham chester Field got hammered in to be the out right when they opened at ninety two, and what did they what did they go off that before the first like they were closer to five to two, weren't they.
They went they went below three.
Yeah, so everyone was in agreement. The bookies were in an agreement.
Everyone was that this wasn't going to be the playoff campaign for Warsaw the way they entered it, even going in the last minute the season, they fell into it and to dust themselves off, picking up off the canvas and make it all the way to Wembley in convincing style.
I mean you talk about the.
Confidence being backed. Albert A dom has assist for the last goal. That's not a player who was lacking any confidence, is it.
The feat was unbelievable. I didn't know we could still move that quick. It still got it exactly.
So I'd be leaning towards Walsall because maybe they are a good team, as they showed they were in.
The first half of the season. Maybe they are.
And to the the what do you call it the atmosphere in the second leg, that wasn't a his fan base, that wasn't nerves permittating.
Onto the pitch.
Maybe the early goal helped, but even before that, I didn't strike me as a nervous club. And it's just something like that that I'm looking towards in this lead to play campaign where it's impossible to call. But yeah, I would be leaning towards Warsaw.
But I'm not touching this with a barge.
Poll Delighted you use the phrase impossible to call because it can put me on the spot, to put everyone on the spot by saying, so I really killed Jimmy? Not in my head? Maybe I don't think I said it. He turned up in shorts and T shirt when left her tell this morning it was rain?
Is it?
I got absolutely soaked well on his holidays.
I haven't got I am on the holidays.
I can't believe in any clothes women.
Yeah, he's turned up and he's absolutely triumph now because that sun is hot. So we will round up possible to call, but a best bet from everyone in this game? Whatf do we approach a final of a playoff campaign that nobody could call?
But I'm going to try and make everyone do it. In the some ful we'll be looking at.
I'm really really struggling to find out anything that you know the angles that the angle that I would look and obviously we're for full disclosure recording. There's on a Wednesday, so we're a long way out. It's Wednesday forty four. Yeah, from a Monday game. I see it being really really low event, and I can't get away from feeling like all of the logic and the prices, which is really all that we can go on, says to back Walsall
to win. But I think that Wimbledon will, and I can't really little basically, I can't, you know, I can't explain I can't explain it. You know how Sometimes you think how the flow of a season's gone, and historically Wimbledon as a club and everything they've been through, they turn up when it matters, and I just feel like that is going to happen, and Walsall this is their last chance to save a season that's fallen apart, and I just feel like the way of everything is going
to push it in Wimbledon's direction. And I can't give an explanation that's in like the betting or the stats or anything, which is why I can't bet on it.
No better, it's sometimes the best bet.
I'm just going to side on a phrase that I honestly am just in tide with Warsaw as the outsider, because I just do this in games, particularly at Wembley in playoff games. If I don't know who is going to win, I really can't work out it's going to win. Just take the outsider. There's not much in it. Wimbledon
a four to five, Warsaw are ten to eleven. I'll side with Warsaw to get the job done, just to qualify at ten to eleven, or to contradict myself wimbled enough depens if you think it's going to go to the distance, because you mentioned the goalkeeper Owen Goodbin brilliant keeper things online from Palace who obviously have had their own success and goalkeeper being the hero in that one,
so they're kind of the two approaches. But again like you're just slightly cold on this game from a betting perspective, but from a watching a game, even as bad as it is or it could be, I'm quite excited for it because if it is hard to call.
Well, can I shock you because you just mentioned him then?
But I would really be looking towards a result and the keeper cards Goodman, what a keeper, Jimmy.
I think obviously that spell like Paul Chester was it last year which didn't quite go as well. But obviously wimbled and it's been phenomenal, but keep card result told.
Me, yeah, second best keeper to maybe the lad in the Walsall net Simpkin for cards you made, yes, you know what he would Jimmy what mess.
Jimmy was very unlucky in the semis to say disgrace you took the Warsaw keeper to be carded and ship out.
It was. It was an absolute disgrace.
I think Wolves.
I think do the Keeyper card double both.
Right, yep, yeah, both results both keepers. I do get the logic and just having the keeper to be bopted as single, but the the just to the explainer the FRED is obviously you need the team to be winning for the team for the player to be carded, and you're doubling the prize. So some firms are getting rid, they're getting a bit shrewd of the idiots. But it he's definitely worth combining it because it does almost double it. Yeah, and Simpkins an absolute keeper card back is dream.
I think Warsaw will win. I think it's gone under the radar a little bit that Wimbledon actually finished the season as badly as Warsaw, so at the last fifteen games, Wimled have picked up just three more points than Warsall and everyone's like, oh, Walls Wall have fallen apart. Well, Wimbledon were in the play in the automatic race as well and they fell to pieces, So I think you've got that's probably not been spoken about enough. I think
Walsall win, but again I'm sing about the unders. I think Walsall win and unders is something that I'd be looking at. I'm also going to be back in Warsaw to win one nil Charlt and one nil Blades one nil because I think it's that kind of a game where one.
Nil trouble trouble. So I do cross game trebles.
I just don't like.
Because I would do keep if dad. I'm looking to retire this summer this weekend, so I'm going to be combined, you know, VICKI Cooper United.
That's a bit of a selection close to my heart.
And then rooksn't really need toilet.
Charlton in their keyper where is Aladder wears gloves, sends in between the sticks.
Yeah, and then the final game, oh oh yeah, sinking and walls. So those three, assuming you get ten times ten times ten, you'll be looking about ten thousand to one, so and that's a minimum.
So yeah, I.
Get well if you are penny on that, if you're backing a million.
If you're trying to retire gym rods. As we've said every single week though, if you are backing anything in the selections, please gamble responsibly, never bet that you can afford.
Please keep it somewhat sensible. Gymeral.
If you haven't already, check out the Championship, the League One previews that we've done, the podcast there, and for all things sky Bets EFL playoff finals weekend, make sure your head to sports life dot com forward slash football