Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous.
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As the world pivots from fossil fuels and demand for electricity rises, who will control the new levers of power? The critical minerals and rare earths that tech depends on are the ultimate resources in a new “Great Game” between China, the US, Europe and Russia. What does the race to control the supply of these minerals mean for the future of the environment, security and global competition? To unpack the geopolitics of future energy supply and rare earths, Emma Beals is joined by Dr Patrick Sc...
Trump’s push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine looks as far away as ever after failed talks this week – can anyone move Putin closer to a realistic agreement? To make sense of the US-led peace process so far and how a potential deal might realistically be achieved, Gavin Esler is joined by Steven Pifer , former US ambassador to Ukraine, an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and the author of The Eagle and the Trident: U.S.-Ukraine...
Donald Trump claims a record of peace agreements spanning from Asia to the Americas. Do these claims hold up? What can we learn about Trump’s efforts to resolve conflicts, and can his deals hold and achieve lasting peace? And what does his transactional approach mean for global security and America’s role in the world? Emma Beals talks to Richard Haass , former advisor to both Bush administrations and President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Samir Puri , director of the Global...
As conflicts and tariff wars disrupt the global order, is political division preventing urgent action to protect the planet? A decade ago world leaders gathered at COP 21 in Paris to discuss the climate crisis - 194 countries signing a breakthrough agreement to limit global warming. By this year, as COP 30 meets in Brazil, the 1.5 degree target on global warming has been breached. Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the future for climate action and whether countries can find consensus to meet the bi...
The European Union has some hard choices to make. It’s faced with an aggressive Russia on its borders, a US administration with limited enthusiasm for the NATO alliance and political divisions in its member states. Behind all this lies deep uncertainty about the coherence of the Union and its economic future in a world economy increasingly dominated by the US and China. What can be done to protect the European way of life and secure unity on the continent? Gavin Esler talks to leading economic t...
A series airspace violations by Russian jets and drones have increased tensions over European skies – could a new ‘drone wall’ now protect Europe’s Eastern flank? With plans announced for a new aerial defence system to protect Eastern borders, how would a drone wall work, and can the EU and NATO deliver on promises to improve Europe’s defences? In today’s episode, Oz Katerji talks to Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower & Technology at RUSI. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill...
What will happen when dictators realise just how useful big tech and the data it gathers could be for them? How is this already happening – and how could it expand, as A.I. ramps up the way draconian governments can use tech? Bruce Schneier, a renowned cyber security expert, best-selling author and co-author of Rewiring Democracy How AI Will Transform Our Politics, Government, and Citizenship joins Gavin Esler to discuss. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni the service ...
The rise of right-wing populism has changed politics across the world. From the proliferation of CPAC conferences across the globe to attacks on institutions and political rivals, does a populist playbook pose a threat to democracy? And how can we resist the rise to power of authoritarian leaders worldwide? In today’s episode, Gavin Esler is joined by Catherine Fieschi, fellow at the Robert Schuman Centre of the European University in Florence. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported ...
Cyber attacks are on the rise and the threats impact us all. Which countries are leading these moves and how can we combat them? Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre says that the UK faced four ‘nationally significant’ attacks a week on average in the past year. It adds that China poses a "capable" cyber threat, "targeting a wide range of sectors and institutions across the globe’, and highlights the activities of Russia, Iran and North Korea. In today’s episode Gavin Esler talks to James Su...
A US-led peace plan has brought renewed hopes that an end to the conflict in Gaza may be in sight. But as talks in Cairo continue over the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli troops and disarmament of Hamas, what are the prospects for a lasting peace settlement? Gavin Esler discusses the latest with Gregg Carlstrom , Middle East correspondent for The Economist. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni the service that keeps your p...
Trump’s foreign policy means the United States is leaving a vacuum in world affairs – and China looks increasingly willing to fill it. Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin last month, what is the real nature of Xi Jinping and China’s expanding but complex international relationships, including those with Narendra Modi in India and Vladimir Putin in Russia? In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill , Gavin Esler talks to Elizabeth Wishnick , expert on Chinese-Russi...
In a dramatic shift over the war in Ukraine, Trump took to Truth Social this week to declare his belief that Ukraine can win back its territories. Will Trump’s change in stance last, and will the shift in rhetoric lead to a change in policy from the White House? To discuss a dramatic week at the UN General Assembly meeting and the latest from the front lines in Eastern Ukraine, Oz Katerji is joined in Kyiv by security analyst Jimmy Rushton. Read Jimmy Rushton’s report on Ukraine’s defence of its...
Trump’s economic policies have caused chaos globally and he’s made it clear he’s happy to use America’s financial might against his enemies – or help his friends. But, when it comes to security, who is this actually helping? In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill – we ask,how do tariffs and inflation in the US impact global security? Emma Beals is joined by Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Read Adam Posen’s Foreign Affairs article ‘The New Ec...
How did Nepal’s ‘Discord revolution’ spark so quickly and bring in a new national leader chosen by online poll? On the 8th of September, a group of young Nepali gathered in Kathmandu to protest a social media ban they saw as a heavy-handed crackdown against an anti-corruption movement. A week later, the government has fallen, more than 70 people lie dead after protests were infiltrated by violent groups and the government responded with lethal force, and Nepal has a new Prime Minister, herself n...
This episode delves into the escalating Middle East crisis, beginning with Israel's controversial strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar and the mass evacuation of Gaza City, highlighting the immense humanitarian impact. Expert Emile Hokayem discusses Israel's political and domestic drivers, arguing against a clear military rationale, and examines the international community's disarray and the Arab states' growing dismay. The conversation explores the Gulf states' fears of regional instability, the perceived unreliability of US policy, and the potential for increased engagement in diplomacy with Iran to secure their own geopolitical future amidst an unpredictable environment.
NATO jets have scrambled to shoot down Russian drones after what Polish military command has called an ‘unprecedented violation’ of its airspace. As Europe reacts to Russian aggression crossing into NATO airspace and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk invokes Article 4 of the NATO treaty, Gavin Esler is joined for the latest from Warsaw by Ian Garner, assistant professor at the Center for Totalitarian Studies at the Pilecki Institute. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni ...
As conflicts and tariff-led trade wars fracture an international order forged at the end of the Second World War, have we entered an era of great power competition? Joining Oz Katerji today to discuss whether the rise to prominence of autocratic ‘strongman’ leaders marks a new landscape of great power contest is Stacie Goddard , Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni the service that keeps your private information safe, ...
China is upping its pace in a race to dominate the world of technology. What will Beijing’s quest mean for its rivalry with the US and how will it shape the future? Gavin Esler is joined by Dan Wang , author of Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, to discuss China’s ambitions. Buy Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This is Not a Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support inde...
As details, claims and counter claims emerge after Trump’s long-promised peace talks, Ukraine’s future remains in the balance. In this special 100th of edition of This Is Not A Drill, Oz Katerji discusses a week of crucial diplomacy with Dmytro Kuleba , Ukraine’s minister for foreign affairs from 2020 to 2024. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni , the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. ...
After a frantic week of international diplomacy, where has the Trump-Putin summit left the prospect of an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine? Following Trump’s red carpet welcome for Putin in Alaska, European leaders scrambled to join Volodymyr Zelenskyy for further talks in Washington. With details still unclear on a host of negotiations, from land swaps to security guarantees, sanctions and even a potential meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, what’s the state of play now? Oz Katerji is joined by ...
The highly potent opioid fentanyl is a major cause of death in the US – and the global trade of the drug is also a cause of growing geopolitical division. Trump has claimed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are targeting the supply of the drug; his China tariffs have complicated efforts to stem exports of the ingredients needed for its production, and fractures among cartels pushing fentanyl could well reshape underworld activity worldwide. In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Emma Beals dis...
After the 12 day war, which saw Israel and the US bomb Iran and its nuclear facilities, where next for the Iranian regime? Questions remain over the Tehran regime’s ability to stay in power after decades of tensions in the region exploded on Iranian soil in June, its strategy of ‘forward defence’ left in ruins following Israel’s attacks on Iranian-aligned militia groups. Will Iran now continue to pursue what’s left of the nuclear programme targeted by US and Israeli strikes, or can a lasting dip...
Why is it so difficult to end wars and what makes peace settlements so likely to be rejected? These questions echo across the globe in an era of conflict and political division, with attempts to broker peace settlements in Gaza and Ukraine dominating headlines but so far remaining out of reach. Historian Margaret MacMillan is Professor at the University of Oxford and the author of numerous books on war and peace, including Peacemakers , and joins Gavin Esler to discuss the history and pressing r...
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a generation of young Russians hoped for a better future of economic prosperity and personal freedom. Yet three decades later Russia has invaded Ukraine and is isolated from the Western world. What happened to the dreams of the perestroika generation, and what does Russian society think about Putin’s war and his grip on power? In the latest episode of This Is Not a Drill, Gavin Esler talks to Russian journalist and writer Irina Borogan, whose book Our D...
Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine looks to be changing, with his decision to send new weapons to Ukraine and a 50-day ultimatum for Vladimir Putin to halt Russian attacks. But will Trump’s threat of ‘severe’ sanctions decisively impact Russian’s war economy and force Putin to a lasting ceasefire? Gavin Esler assesses Trump’s ‘major statement’ on Russia with Mark Galeotti, historian, writer and leading expert on Russian security affairs. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by ...
Trump has opened the doors to kleptocrats the world over as he launches a new era of corruption the likes of which we’ve never seen. Oliver Bullough, writer of the Coda Story newsletter as well as the author of Butler to the World: How Britain Became the Servant of Tycoons, Tax Dodgers, Kleptocrats and Criminals , and Moneyland , has long been following the corrupt ways money moves around the globe. He joins Gavin Esler to discuss how this is happening, what guardrails there are and what hope th...
From ‘alternative facts’ to political lies to the disinformation that courses through social media, the ‘post-truth’ phenomenon threatens the foundations of democracy. Politicians and ideologues are ramping up mistrust in our institutions using unchecked digital media. How can we hold onto democratic guardrails in a world shaped by politically-driven deceit and manipulation? Eliot Higgins is the founder of Bellingcat , the investigative journalism group specialising in the use of open-source int...
Gavin Esler and Dr. Julie Norman discuss the fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire announced by Donald Trump. They examine why Iran de-escalated, the motivation behind its nuclear program as deterrence, and the low probability of external regime change. The conversation also covers Netanyahu's strengthened political position, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Trump's unpredictable diplomatic style, and how the unresolved Palestinian question remains a key barrier to broader regional stability.
As Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks, what role will the US play in attempting to bring the crisis to an end - and might it be dragged into the conflict? As Donald Trump weighs up his options – either to force Iran into committing to giving up its nuclear programme, or potentially deploy US bombers and bunker busting bombs to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities – the prospect of American forces joining directly in the conflict divides the US President's MAGA movement. In the latest...
Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “ Operation Rising Lion ”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for Iran unless they sign a deal over its nuclear programme. On this special edition, conflict reporter...
