Hard right parties are sweeping Europe and analysts fear they will do well in this week’s elections across the EU. How deeply are radical right parties, with their immigration and culture war fixations and indulgence of Putin, distorting politics from Spain to Germany and Poland and beyond? What does their success mean for the EU’s stability and the defence of Ukraine? And can the populist wave be stopped? Gavin Esler talks to political analyst Catherine Fieschi – author of Populocracy: The Tyra...
Jun 05, 2024•40 min•Season 5Ep. 33
What’s it like to live next to the world’s worst neighbour: Vladimir Putin’s Russia? In 2024, pro-democracy Georgians are beaten for resisting their pro-Moscow government from enacting a Putinesque “foreign agents” law. Poland is rearming against the Russian threat, and the Baltic states of the former USSR are subjected to hybrid warfare from their former occupiers. Yet instead of terrorising Europe, is Putin’s aggression uniting it behind ideals of democracy and mutual support? Polish historian...
May 29, 2024•42 min•Season 5Ep. 32
As Defence Secretary, former Scots Guard Ben Wallace was one of few well-respected ministers during the Johnson years. In office he faced the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s war on Ukraine. As he prepares to leave Parliament, he tells Oz Katerji why Europe must re-arm to support Ukraine and deter Putin’s Russia; how Netanyahu has over-extended Israel in its war with Hamas; and why China is now the economic master of Russia. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, mercha...
May 22, 2024•43 min•Season 1Ep. 31
In 2024 four billion people will vote in the biggest election year in history, which will see existential tests for democracy in the US, India and elsewhere. What is shaping the battle between democracy and autocracy? And who is winning? Ellection-distorting technology is outpacing governments’ ability to regulate it. Can democracy survive the uncontrolled spread of A.I., deepfakes and disinformation technology? Emma Beals talks to “Godfather of democracy studies” Larry Diamond, senior fellow at...
May 15, 2024•47 min•Season 5Ep. 30
The new Cold War between China and the US isn’t just fought on the digital plane. China is supplying equipment to Russia, intimidating Taiwan, bringing countries across Africa and Asia into its orbit – and, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, attempting to influence the US Presidential Election. What does Xi Jinping really want? Can he square China’s goal of being the “workshop of the world” with its foreign policy? And will he really move against Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to dis...
May 08, 2024•38 min•Season 5Ep. 29
America’s war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1991 was supposed to inaugurate a New World Order. President George HW Bush spoke of protecting ‘“peace, security, freedom and the rule of law… such is a world worthy of our children’s future.” But the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, China’s resurgence and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left the idea of a coherent, US-led world order in tatters. In a special panel episode, Gavin Esler is joined by co-hosts Emma Beals an...
May 01, 2024•43 min•Season 5Ep. 28
The world has responded with stunning cynicism to the wave of coups d’etat across Central Africa – either ignoring the violence, suffering and the rise of military strongmen, or exploiting it for their own ends. From Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso to the bloody civil war and mass displacement in Sudan, Oz Katerji finds that the Sahel region isn’t only threatened by war, drought and Islamist terror. The “Africa Corps” wing of Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries are vying with the Gulf States for power,...
Apr 24, 2024•50 min•Season 5Ep. 27
Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews about whether a weak and isolated Teheran really wants war, Netanyahu’...
Apr 15, 2024•29 min•Season 5Ep. 26
Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic State are growing and re-energised by a vast new funding sources: the global drugs trade, and even crypto. Gavin Esler speaks to Dr David Ucko – professor...
Apr 10, 2024•42 min•Season 5Ep. 25
Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage? Emma Beals speaks to Elisabeth Braw – senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Securi...
Apr 03, 2024•43 min•Season 5Ep. 24
Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services. Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov about this catastrophic failure of Russian intelligence, ...
Mar 28, 2024•15 min•Season 5Ep. 23
The spying game was supposed to fade into history with the Cold War. But Vladimir Putin’s historic grievances, obsession with Ukraine and need to placate his own intelligence agencies have sent a new wave of espionage across the world. The West thinks we’re at peace. The Russians know we’re at war. So what are Western intelligence agencies going to do about it? Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov and former CIA officer turned noveli...
Mar 27, 2024•45 min•Season 5Ep. 22
Putin has used digital disinformation against Ukraine and the West since long before the Russian invasion, undermining US and EU support for Kyiv by smearing Ukrainians as Nazis and denying Russia’s many atrocities. Are we already in an information war? And how do we win it? Gavin Esler talks to longterm Putin-watcher and post-truth analyst Peter Pomerantsev, author of How To Win An Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler about Russia’s post-truth strategy – and what the astonishi...
Mar 20, 2024•47 min•Season 5Ep. 21
Iran – America’s arch-enemy and the Middle East’s malign “mini-Imperial power” – fans conflicts from Ukraine to Israel to Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and is said to be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. But the Islamic Revolution is under sustained attack from within, under the banner of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’. Can Iran maintain its hardline power in the Muslim world? What do its second- and third-generation revolutionaries want? And can the West contain them? Gavin Esler talks to Ar...
Mar 13, 2024•46 min•Season 5Ep. 20
Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tells Oz Katerji how the war is going… and why Ukrainians have reason to be optimistic about the future. • “It is clear that if Russia is allowed to win ...
Mar 06, 2024•37 min•Season 5Ep. 19
The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter? Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the...
Feb 28, 2024•51 min•Season 5Ep. 18
From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE a friend or a foe of democracies? Emma Beals talks to Dr Andreas Krieg, fellow at the Institute of ...
Feb 21, 2024•42 min•Season 5Ep. 17
The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends? Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal ...
Feb 14, 2024•41 min•Season 5Ep. 16
Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step into war? Gavin Esler talks to DPRK expert and nuclear analyst Rachel Minyoung Lee and Seoul-based journalist and NKnews.org founder Chad O’Carroll abo...
Feb 07, 2024•37 min•Season 5Ep. 15
The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading? The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independent consultant and senior adviser at the European Institute for Peace Emma Beals convene for the first...
Jan 31, 2024•45 min•Season 5Ep. 14
Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more? Oz Katerji tells the story of the “missed chance” of peace talks in Istanbul in October 2022, the myth that Boris Johnson sank them, and the danger of new cea...
Jan 24, 2024•51 min•Season 5Ep. 13
Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far will Beijing go to achieve what it calls the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwa...
Jan 17, 2024•40 min•Season 5Ep. 12
Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East. Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen. The reaction from the Houthis has been to threaten reprisals - could this be the kind of escalation in the Middle East feared ...
Jan 12, 2024•10 min•Season 5Ep. 11
This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict – and Iran is fanning the flames. What happens next? Gavin Esler talks to Helen Lackner, author of Yemen In Cris...
Jan 12, 2024•30 min•Season 5Ep. 10
In twelve months’ time America will inaugurate a new President. It could be a man who says he’ll act as a “dictator on day one,” who rejects elections if he doesn’t win them, and whose America First ideas could shatter what remains of the global order. With a year to go, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics Brian Klaas tells Gavin Esler how Donald Trump has damaged American politics more deeply than anyone realises – how driving Trump off mainstream social media to Truth Social only hid hi...
Jan 10, 2024•37 min•Season 5Ep. 9
With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism? Gavin Esler looks at the year ahead with Lord Peter Ricketts, Britain’s first National Security Adviser, former chair of the Joint Intelligence Committ...
Jan 04, 2024•35 min•Season 5Ep. 8
With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, create chaos and tear at the fabric of the global order. Jasmin Mujanović explains how Russia is pushing to reignite the simmering Serbia/Kosovo dispute...
Dec 20, 2023•47 min•Season 5Ep. 7
From ‘Stop the Boats’ to ‘Build the Wall’, mass migration is the great upheaval of our times, opening a poisonous political divide. Will population movement really tip our world into chaos as the populists and far-right agitators warn? Will democracies have to choose between mass migration or low growth? Are hardliners like Italy’s Meloni or Hungary’s Orbán really cutting migration to their countries like they say? And what does “solving” migration even mean? Just days after Suella Braverman’s i...
Dec 13, 2023•36 min•Season 5Ep. 6
Are we entering a new age of war? The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing, and they’re lasting longer. Wars in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine threaten to merge into wider conflagrations. Autocrats and populists see chaos as a route to power. America can no longer guarantee global stability, and democracy is faltering. Gavin Esler speaks to international conflict analyst Emma Beals and Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College London Sir Lawrence Freedman about the new dy...
Dec 06, 2023•47 min•Season 5Ep. 5
Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukraine’s favour – and what the spectre of a Trump Presidency would mean for Ukraine’s freedom. We’re proud that Oz, a seasoned reporter, film-maker and ...
Nov 29, 2023•45 min•Season 5Ep. 4
