Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous.
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From ‘alternative facts’ to political lies to the disinformation that courses through social media, the ‘post-truth’ phenomenon threatens the foundations of democracy. Politicians and ideologues are ramping up mistrust in our institutions using unchecked digital media. How can we hold onto democratic guardrails in a world shaped by politically-driven deceit and manipulation? Eliot Higgins is the founder of Bellingcat, the investigative journalism group specialising in the use of open-source inte...
Gavin Esler and Dr. Julie Norman discuss the fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire announced by Donald Trump. They examine why Iran de-escalated, the motivation behind its nuclear program as deterrence, and the low probability of external regime change. The conversation also covers Netanyahu's strengthened political position, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Trump's unpredictable diplomatic style, and how the unresolved Palestinian question remains a key barrier to broader regional stability.
As Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks, what role will the US play in attempting to bring the crisis to an end - and might it be dragged into the conflict? As Donald Trump weighs up his options – either to force Iran into committing to giving up its nuclear programme, or potentially deploy US bombers and bunker busting bombs to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities – the prospect of American forces joining directly in the conflict divides the US President's MAGA movement. In the latest...
Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for Iran unless they sign a deal over its nuclear programme. On this special edition, conflict reporter O...
Launching the UK’s latest strategic defence review, Keir Starmer pledged renewed spending on defence and vowed “everything we do will add to the strength of NATO”. Yet as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte calls for members to increase spending further to five percent of GDP on security, are Britain and its allies doing enough to secure the alliance’s future and deter the threat of an expansionist Russia? In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler is joined by Sir Richard Shirreff,...
More than three years since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, warfare has been transformed by drones. Reports have stated that 70 percent of combat casualties in the war in Ukraine are now caused by drones, while the British security think tank RUSI calculates drones account for 60 to 70 percent of damaged and destroyed Russian systems. Ukraine, forced to innovate to hold off Russian forces, claims to be capable of making 4 million drones this year, Russia says it made 1.4 million in 2...
Ukraine’s daring drone attack Operation Spiderweb has stunned Russia with its stealth, precision planning and the damage it unleashed on warplanes based deep within Russian territory. Gavin Esler is joined from Kyiv by This Is Not A Drill co-host Oz Katerji, to discuss the impact of an operation planned meticulously over the past 18 months – and what it means both for the war and the nature of asymmetric conflict. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that ke...
The continued assault of the Israeli armed forces amid a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has drawn global criticism. Yet the question remains – who will intervene to end the conflict and restrain Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu? Donald Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East saw the US President looking to broker deals in the region - including the potential for a new deal with Israel's rivals Iran. But is Trump also willing to take a new approach to intervene over Gaza? In the la...
With questions raised over Europe’s defence capabilities, Poland is one of the key nations insisting the continent needs to bolster its security. This March the European Commission announced an €800bn plan to boost continental defence. But is Europe doing enough? Gavin Esler discusses the view from Poland with Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala from the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies at Warsaw University. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, th...
Trump’s shock announcement that he would be lifting economic sanctions on Syria has sparked celebrations in the streets of Damascus. What are the consequences for the recovery of a nation rebuilding its state and infrastructure after more than a decade of civil war? And following the announcement in Riyadh after a meeting between Trump and Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, what does it mean for Syria’s rebalancing of relations in the Middle East and across the globe? Emma Beals discusses a ...
As the crisis across the India-Pakistan border escalates, can the conflict be brought back from the brink? To discuss the latest from the region and the wider context of a deep-rooted interstate rivalry, Gavin Esler talks to Christopher Clary, associate professor at University at Albany, State University of New York, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of The Difficult Politics of Peace: Rivalry in Modern South Asia. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni,...
Ukraine and the US have reached a long-awaited agreement on a deal over American access to Ukrainian mineral resources. What does this mean for Ukrainian resilience in the fight against Russian invasion – and for a US-Ukraine relationship strained by the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House? Oz Katerji discusses the mineral deal and the economics of the war with Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former minister of economy for Ukraine. • This episode of This I...
As a follower of This Is Not A Drill, we thought you might like to try our brand new, not-entirely-dissimilar podcast CRIME SCENE. Every week ex-Met Police Commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and former Mirror editor Alison Phillips lift the lid on how criminal investigations really work. In our debut episode: The horrific shooting of an innocent nine-year-old girl in Dalston in 2024 laid bare bitter rivalries between London’s armed gangs. Are police they fighting a losing battle against guns in the...
The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have left the rest of the world facing the challenge of maintaining a global order without American leadership at its core. What comes next is the subject of ‘Order Without America, How the International System can Survive a Hostile Washington’ – a recent Foreign Affairs article by the founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Professor of Global Economic Governance at Oxford University, Professor Ngaire Woods. In the latest edition of This...
Donald Trump famously said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But now, he’s suggested the US might “pass” on peace negotiations – unless rapid progress is made. So, what does that mean for Ukraine, three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion? After a week of statement and counter-statement in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported continued Russian attacks on Ukraine despite Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of a temporary Easter ‘truce’ - Gavin Esler is joined for the latest f...
Amid the shocks created by Trump’s tariff policies, are we also seeing a kind of American economic self-harm – which threatens the long-standing dominance of the US dollar? Gavin Esler talks to Harvard Professor of Economics and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff, whose new book Our Dollar, Your Problem looks at the rise of the US currency and shows why its future is far from assured. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that k...
Donald Trump’s volatile behaviour raises questions for intelligence sharing across the globe – so how unsafe could he make our world? Is the Five Eyes alliance between Britain, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Trump-proof? And how might his actions impact it? Professor Ciaran Martin of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, and former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre, tells Gavin Esler how a rogue president could impact the free world’s intellige...
Trump is dismantling USAID, pulling the rug on vital humanitarian aid and development funding, and countries across the West have followed suit in slashing foreign aid budgets. To discuss the grim ramifications of Western governments turning their back on overseas aid, and what the world can do in response, Emma Beals talks to President of Refugees International Jeremy Konyndyk, and Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive at ODI Global. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the...
Could the German government’s historic vote to back a major rearmament plan prove a turning point for the whole of Europe? To discuss the German response to European security concerns, the threat of Russian aggression and an increasingly unreliable relationship with the United States, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nicolai von Ondarza from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information s...
Despite a supposed “pause” in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian airstrikes against Ukraine continue. Meanwhile Trump’s much-touted call with Putin showed no evidence of moving negotiations forward. Is a genuine ceasefire possible or is Putin displaying his ability to manipulate events yet again? Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, talks to Gavin Esler about the peace...
Whatever happens in the negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States, one thing is certain: Britain is now a key part of the European race to rearm. Military commanders, defence contractors, national security experts and politicians face a rush to fill in the gaps in European security left by an unreliable American president. The proposed EU ReArm Europe plan outlines 800 billion Euros for defence spending – but how much time do we have to make it work? And where does Brexit Brit...
Is there more to Trump’s designs on Greenland than just whim and chaos? As climate change melts the Arctic ice, global powers are positioning themselves over newly-opened resources, trade routes and strategic opportunities – and Trump’s America no longer abides by international rules or alliances. Will the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic become a new arena for old-fashioned great power rivalry? Klaus Dodds, an expert on the polar regions and professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University...
How can Zelenskyy work with a US President he fundamentally can’t trust? Trump’s decision to pause US aid to Ukraine was the final act in a seismic weekend which sent shockwaves through Europe. Following the dire spectacle of Trump and Vance rounding on Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, is the relationship now purely coercive? Oz Katerji talks to Kyiv-based conflict and human rights journalist and CEO of the Public Interest Journalism Lab Nataliya Gumenyuk, to assess Ukraine’s choices as the world o...
With Trump seemingly determined to destroy any vestige of a US security guarantee for Europe, is the NATO era coming to an end? Gavin Esler talks to Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who served as Britain’s Director-General of Joint Force Development, Strategic Command, about Europe’s new security reality. Can Europe cope with the threat of an expansionist Russia on its Eastern flank, and a US President who shows no interest in shared values and alliances? • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is sup...
The free world is reeling and Putin is jubilant as Trump goes over the heads of Ukraine and Europe to “negotiate” directly with Russia – cutting Zelenskyy and European leaders out of talks in Saudi Arabia. Will the two autocrats simply carve Ukraine up between them? Will they heed Zelenskyy’s demand that there be no settlement without Ukraine’s participation? And given Russia’s record of deception, is the notion of a fair and lasting peace just a naive fantasy? Oz Katerji hears the reaction to t...
Trump has clear disdain for NATO – but could he really pull the US out of the alliance? And what would be its prospects without American support? In the current geopolitical climate, the annual meeting this week of European military, security and political experts – the Munich Security Conference 2025 – has a special urgency. Just how far is the Trump administration truly in or out on European defence? And what are the prospects for NATO in the case of a transatlantic rift in the alliance? Gavin...
On his return to the White House this January, Donald Trump pledged to be a ‘peacemaker’, after insisting during his campaign that he would bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. Nearly three years into Russia’s all out war on its neighbour, its brutal attacks continue – with incremental territorial gains coming at the costs of thousands of lives. Yet Ukraine’s military still fights to hold the line. Has Trump really got the leverage to bring Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy ...
When a British submarine surfaced in the North Sea to warn off a Russian spy vessel sailing just 45 miles from the British mainland, a series of shadowy maritime sabotage incidents burst onto the front pages and into public consciousness. In the past year undersea cables vital to European digital infrastructure have been targeted for damage - most notably in the Baltic Sea. With blame difficult to pinpoint, suspicion has fallen on Russia, which Western security services have warned is engaged in...
For decades the Islamic Republic of Iran used its ties to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen to create conflict and shore up its power in the Middle East and beyond. But in 2024 Iran’s plans and power fell apart in spectacular fashion, from Assad’s fall in Syria to Israel’s devastating attacks on its proxy groups. Once able to export chaos with impunity, Tehran is now in a state of unprecedented weakness. And it faces the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who enacted a strategy o...
After 15 months of horror, a ceasefire and hostage release deal triggers rejoicing in Israel and Palestine. But the deal is ambiguous and built around only a gradual release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, with no agreement to end the war yet. While Trump rushes to claim credit, some fear the deal is so loose it might collapse. Could this conflict reignite? Gavin Esler talks to Middle East expert Dr H.A. Hellyer of RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security...
