Ukrainian drone swarms have hit targets in major Russian cities, while disrupting its military assets and vital oil supplies. Could this be a turning point in the war more than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion began? Gavin Esler is joined by John Lough , senior research fellow at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre and associate fellow in the Russia Eurasia programme at Chatham House. • Special offer! Get 20% off any vehicle history check at carvertical.com/drill • Support us on Patre...
Jun 25, 2026•33 min•Season 5Ep. 147
News of the framework for a peace deal between Iran and the United States - if it holds - might be the beginning of the end of a conflict that has unsettled not just the Middle East and the world economy but also Washington’s relationships with its allies. Even if President Trump claims some kind of victory in Iran - with stories about arguments and possible rifts between Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, how far will the United States and Israel agree on the way forward? Gav...
Jun 18, 2026•35 min•Season 5Ep. 146
Germany is rearming as the Russian threat looms over Europe and much of the continent’s security rests on its success. Backed by an emergency ‘Zeitenwende’ fund and an ever-expanding defence budget, Germany is undertaking a profound military transformation with the aim of becoming Europe’s strongest conventional army. What does this mean more broadly? And where do they need to focus? Jörg Lau , foreign policy correspondent at Die Zeit, joins Gavin Esler to discuss how the budget will be spent an...
Jun 11, 2026•29 min•Season 1Ep. 145
Beyond the pomp and pageantry of Vladimir Putin’s Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, what do Russia and China need from each other? And how strong is their relationship? Plus, coming hot on the heels of Donald Trump’s own Beijing visit, what does it mean for the geopolitical balance in an era of great power competition? Gavin Esler joins Joseph Webster , senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the independent China-Russia Report to discuss. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A ...
Jun 04, 2026•24 min•Season 5Ep. 144
In a new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail , co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations Mark Leonard argues that we have entered an age of ‘un-order’ – when the rules and norms of the international order no longer hold sway. Can democratic leaders find a way to meet the challenges of an era of widening conflict, geopolitical competition and political division? In today’s episode, Mark joins Gavin Esler to discuss a new age of instability, and asks w...
May 28, 2026•35 min•Season 5Ep. 143
As drones and missiles darken the skies above conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, is a transformation in modern warfare leading to a new arms race? And as technology and tactics evolve, which weapons and defence systems are being bought, and who is buying them? Gavin Esler discusses the realities of the arms trade in 2026 with Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher in the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is No...
May 21, 2026•32 min•Season 5Ep. 142
Putin thought that Ukraine would quickly fold under a massively superior Russian onslaught. Instead, the War has seen Ukraine reinventing itself as a world expert in drone warfare, exploiting cheap replaceable tech and digital networks to strike deep and painfully into Russia. Ukraine now leads the world in the air defence expertise required in today’s conflict zones – and nations across Europe and the Middle East now consult Ukraine on the fast-evolving drone tech they need in today’s unstable ...
May 14, 2026•37 min•Season 5Ep. 141
Though Saddam Hussein tried to develop them and North Korea is accused of stockpiling them, biological weapons have been considered taboo for decades. Theoretically they’re banned. But intelligence agencies and military leaders are increasingly warning of wider clandestine programmes to develop deadly mass toxins, and A.I. is lowering the barriers to entry dramatically. As governments scramble to keep up and frontier tech runs out of control, are we about to enter a new age of bioweapons and bio...
May 07, 2026•26 min•Season 5Ep. 140
Acts of sabotage and arson spreading across Europe are persistently connected to Russia. Gavin Esler is joined by Shaun Walker, the Guardian's central and eastern Europe correspondent, to discuss the Kremlin’s shadow warfare network and the chaos state-sponsored terror is causing across the continent. • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR brand in front of ou...
Apr 30, 2026•31 min•Season 5Ep. 139
The final episode of a four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… This time: International leaders cling to the idea that Trump’s violent overthrow of the world order and embrace of raw power will prove temporary. But what if it isn’t? What if we’ve entered a new age where might makes right? And after Iran and Venezuela, is there any coherent vision behind America’s new foreign policy – or is it just driven by anger and greed? Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations explains ...
Apr 27, 2026•40 min•Season 5Ep. 138
A four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon . How will we cope with the end of the Pax Americana – and what comes next? This time: As Trump flips the table and walks away from America’s old international role, China want to take advantage. The People’s Republic is squaring up to the US on multiple fronts – economic, technological, cultural and potentially militarily. Sir Robin Niblett , author of The New Cold War , talks to Gavin Esler ...
Apr 23, 2026•31 min
A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon . How will we cope with the end of Pax Americana – and what comes next? Gavin Esler dives deep into a harsh new era of international relations. In this second episode, has Trump broken the trust-based world order – or just exposed it? Are we building a hostile world of fortresses? What would NATO look like without the US? Ukrainian journalist and author Nataliya Gumenyuk explains how Trump...
Apr 20, 2026•38 min•Season 5Ep. 136
A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon . Trump’s reckless war on Iran was the culmination of a year of aggressive rhetoric and scorn for allies from the White House. It also cemented a new American ethos: the United States will do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, without concern for friends and allies. The Atlanticist nightmare has come true. America has abandoned the world. So how will we cope with the end of Pax American...
Apr 16, 2026•39 min•Season 5Ep. 135
A brand new four-part mini-series from This Is Not A Drill...as we face the end of Pax Americana, what comes next? Get all episodes now via our Patreon or subscribe to the Podmasters Originals channel on Apple Podcasts . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Apr 15, 2026•3 min
As America turns against the world, China is seeing more and more opportunities to grow. Its soft power influence is growing and cultural influence is blooming globally. How is this happening and what impact will it have? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, to discuss. • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love o...
Apr 09, 2026•32 min•Season 5Ep. 134
America’s war on Iran has triggered deadly consequences across the Middle East, with attacks on oil supplies causing a global economic shock. Now, as authorities investigate terror-related violence and sabotage in the US and Europe, are we headed for a new era of terror similar to what followed America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? And in a world critically dependent on digital infrastructure, how safe are we from the threat of online sabotage? Gavin Esler finds out from Graig Klein , Assistan...
Apr 02, 2026•41 min•Season 5Ep. 133
Facing aerial bombardment and the economic shock of an oil crisis, the Gulf States have found themselves on the front lines of war in the Middle East. As missiles and drones attack oil and civilian infrastructure, how will Iran’s neighbours respond to the latest major escalation in long-term regional rivalry? And what are the consequences for the stability and prosperity of an entire region? Gavin Esler discusses the reaction to the conflict in the Gulf with Allison Minor, Director of the Projec...
Mar 26, 2026•32 min•Season 5Ep. 132
Donald Trump has claimed he will choose when the Iran war is over – but does he really have that choice? Faced with Iranian retaliation and a conflict spilling out across the Middle East, what is in his control and what isn’t? And as Iran’s regime continues to attack US allies in the region, closing the Straits of Hormuz with global economic repercussions, is the US administration stumbling into another protracted war in the Middle East? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the M...
Mar 19, 2026•30 min
The US/Israeli war with Iran has led to a wave of conflict across the Middle East. In Lebanon, missile attacks on Israel from Hezbollah militants have been met with an Israeli assault – which has led to hundreds of deaths and more than 750,000 displaced from their homes. Reporting from Beirut, Oz Katerji talks to Lebanese political writer and organiser Karim Safieddine. They discuss the future for a Lebanese population which has endured years of conflict, now yet again dragged into regional warf...
Mar 13, 2026•32 min•Season 5Ep. 130
Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli attacks, widening the conflict across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, is Donald Trump risking the kind of endless war he campaigned against? And for Iran, how long can its regime last in the face of the assault, and what does its retaliation risk? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and w...
Mar 05, 2026•30 min•Season 5Ep. 129
Trump’s stunning surprise attack on Iran could be the most consequential world event since 9/11. Will the President’s goal of smooth regime change work when it failed every other time, or trigger a regional conflagration? Iran’s hated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead but the Islamic Republic is showing no sign of collapsing. And now Hezbollah has attacked other Arab states as well as British and US military targets. How will the war play out? How resilient is the Islamic Republic? Does Israel...
Mar 02, 2026•30 min•Season 5Ep. 128
It has been four years since the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Does Vladimir Putin still believe he is leading Russia to a military victory, or is he now banking on winning at the negotiating table? Gavin Esler talks to Samuel Greene, Professor of Russian Politics at King’s College London. You can read more from Professor Greene at his Substack, TL;DRussia . Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every mont...
Feb 26, 2026•30 min
What a difference a year makes - or does it? The 2025 Munich Security Conference was shocked by divisive words from the US Vice President JD Vance. But at this year’s gathering, Marco Rubio represented America and struck a more conciliatory tone. What does this mean for Europe? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr. Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). So...
Feb 19, 2026•25 min•Season 5Ep. 126
Artificial intelligence is playing an increasing role in all our daily lives – and handing over power to AI comes with many risks. From misinformation and disruption to autonomous war technology, can we handle the dangers? Gavin Esler talks to Alex Hern , AI writer at The Economist. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR...
Feb 12, 2026•31 min•Season 5Ep. 125
As temperatures plummet in Ukraine, Putin’s military is continuing to target the country’s power supply, leaving civilians suffering as the war continues toward a fifth year. With the diplomatic crises and international flashpoints of recent months dragging attention away from Ukraine, what are the prospects for the coming year, both on the battlefield and in the stalled peace process? Gavin Esler discusses the latest with This Is Not A Drill presenter and Kyiv-based conflict reporter Oz Katerji...
Feb 05, 2026•23 min•Season 5Ep. 124
For years Xi Jinping has mapped out a strategy for the rise of China as a superpower. How will this ambition shape the world’s future? In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler talks to Elizabeth Economy , Hargrove senior fellow the Hoover Institution, about China’s plans in a series of ‘frontier domains’, from the bottom of the sea to outer space. Read Elizabeth Economy’s article ‘ How China Wins the Future ’ in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs here . Advertisers! Want to rea...
Jan 29, 2026•35 min•Season 5Ep. 123
A wave of protests has swept Iran and been met by a brutal crackdown. Could this mark the end of the ruling regime? Thousands have been killed and the government faces a continuing backlash, growing economic crisis and Trump’s threats to take military action against the nation. Gavin Esler is joined by Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews , and author of The Politics of Nationalism in Modern Iran . • Support us on Patreon to...
Jan 22, 2026•29 min•Season 5Ep. 122
So far in 2026, self-described peacemaker Donald Trump has captured Nicolas Maduro in a Special Forces raid in Venezuela and now has his eyes on Greenland. To discuss the realities of the Trump administration’s foreign policy and US politics in the year of the midterm elections, Gavin Esler is joined by Bill Kristol , editor at large of the Bulwark and former chief of staff to Vice President Dan Quayle. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like...
Jan 15, 2026•31 min•Season 5Ep. 121
Trump’s New Year attack on Venezuela and the capturing of President Maduro shocked the world. In the first of a series of episodes assessing the biggest security issues in 2026, Gavin Esler talks to former UK national security adviser Peter Ricketts about the year to come, the consequences of Trump’s Venezuela raid and the risks of a new era of great powers carving up the globe. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presen...
Jan 07, 2026•35 min•Season 5Ep. 120
The geopolitical shocks of 2025 have the potential to reverberate for decades to come. Trump’s America first agenda and the new US national security strategy risk European unity, security and the rise of far right politics; Trump's trade wars have served to increase the pressure on states looking to balance relations with the US, China and also a rising India, and Israel’s assaults in Iran, Gaza and Lebanon have changed the balance of power in the Middle East. In the final episode of the year, G...
Dec 18, 2025•40 min•Season 5Ep. 119
