The continued assault of the Israeli armed forces amid a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has drawn global criticism. Yet the question remains – who will intervene to end the conflict and restrain Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu? Donald Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East signalled a US administration looking to broker new ties in the region - including the potential for a new deal with Iran. Will the US now bring its leverage over Israel to bear to bring an end to the conflict...
May 29, 2025•35 min•Season 5Ep. 85
With questions raised over Europe’s defence capabilities, Poland is one of the key nations insisting the continent needs to bolster its security. This March the European Commission announced an €800bn plan to boost continental defence. But is Europe doing enough? Gavin Esler discusses the view from Poland with Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala from the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies at Warsaw University. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, th...
May 22, 2025•30 min•Season 5Ep. 84
Trump’s shock announcement that he would be lifting economic sanctions on Syria has sparked celebrations in the streets of Damascus. What are the consequences for the recovery of a nation rebuilding its state and infrastructure after more than a decade of civil war? And following the announcement in Riyadh after a meeting between Trump and Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, what does it mean for Syria’s rebalancing of relations in the Middle East and across the globe? Emma Beals discusses a ...
May 15, 2025•48 min•Season 5Ep. 83
As the crisis across the India-Pakistan border escalates, can the conflict be brought back from the brink? To discuss the latest from the region and the wider context of a deep-rooted interstate rivalry, Gavin Esler talks to Christopher Clary, associate professor at University at Albany, State University of New York, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of The Difficult Politics of Peace: Rivalry in Modern South Asia. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni,...
May 08, 2025•33 min•Season 5Ep. 82
Ukraine and the US have reached a long-awaited agreement on a deal over American access to Ukrainian mineral resources. What does this mean for Ukrainian resilience in the fight against Russian invasion – and for a US-Ukraine relationship strained by the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House? Oz Katerji discusses the mineral deal and the economics of the war with Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former minister of economy for Ukraine. • This episode of This I...
May 05, 2025•35 min•Season 5Ep. 81
As a follower of This Is Not A Drill, we thought you might like to try our brand new, not-entirely-dissimilar podcast CRIME SCENE. Every week ex-Met Police Commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and former Mirror editor Alison Phillips lift the lid on how criminal investigations really work. In our debut episode: The horrific shooting of an innocent nine-year-old girl in Dalston in 2024 laid bare bitter rivalries between London’s armed gangs. Are police they fighting a losing battle against guns in the...
May 02, 2025•13 min•Season 6Ep. 1
The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have left the rest of the world facing the challenge of maintaining a global order without American leadership at its core. What comes next is the subject of ‘Order Without America, How the International System can Survive a Hostile Washington’ – a recent Foreign Affairs article by the founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Professor of Global Economic Governance at Oxford University, Professor Ngaire Woods. In the latest edition of This...
May 01, 2025•35 min•Season 5Ep. 80
Donald Trump famously said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But now, he’s suggested the US might “pass” on peace negotiations – unless rapid progress is made. So, what does that mean for Ukraine, three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion? After a week of statement and counter-statement in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported continued Russian attacks on Ukraine despite Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of a temporary Easter ‘truce’ - Gavin Esler is joined for the latest f...
Apr 24, 2025•32 min•Season 5Ep. 79
Amid the shocks created by Trump’s tariff policies, are we also seeing a kind of American economic self-harm – which threatens the long-standing dominance of the US dollar? Gavin Esler talks to Harvard Professor of Economics and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff, whose new book Our Dollar, Your Problem looks at the rise of the US currency and shows why its future is far from assured. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that k...
Apr 17, 2025•35 min•Season 5Ep. 78
Donald Trump’s volatile behaviour raises questions for intelligence sharing across the globe – so how unsafe could he make our world? Is the Five Eyes alliance between Britain, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Trump-proof? And how might his actions impact it? Professor Ciaran Martin of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, and former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre, tells Gavin Esler how a rogue president could impact the free world’s intellige...
Apr 10, 2025•33 min•Season 5Ep. 77
Trump is dismantling USAID, pulling the rug on vital humanitarian aid and development funding, and countries across the West have followed suit in slashing foreign aid budgets. To discuss the grim ramifications of Western governments turning their back on overseas aid, and what the world can do in response, Emma Beals talks to President of Refugees International Jeremy Konyndyk, and Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive at ODI Global. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the...
Apr 03, 2025•45 min•Season 5Ep. 76
Could the German government’s historic vote to back a major rearmament plan prove a turning point for the whole of Europe? To discuss the German response to European security concerns, the threat of Russian aggression and an increasingly unreliable relationship with the United States, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nicolai von Ondarza from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information s...
Mar 27, 2025•39 min•Season 5Ep. 75
Despite a supposed “pause” in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian airstrikes against Ukraine continue. Meanwhile Trump’s much-touted call with Putin showed no evidence of moving negotiations forward. Is a genuine ceasefire possible or is Putin displaying his ability to manipulate events yet again? Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, talks to Gavin Esler about the peace...
Mar 20, 2025•40 min•Season 5Ep. 74
Whatever happens in the negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States, one thing is certain: Britain is now a key part of the European race to rearm. Military commanders, defence contractors, national security experts and politicians face a rush to fill in the gaps in European security left by an unreliable American president. The proposed EU ReArm Europe plan outlines 800 billion Euros for defence spending – but how much time do we have to make it work? And where does Brexit Brit...
Mar 13, 2025•28 min•Season 5Ep. 73
Is there more to Trump’s designs on Greenland than just whim and chaos? As climate change melts the Arctic ice, global powers are positioning themselves over newly-opened resources, trade routes and strategic opportunities – and Trump’s America no longer abides by international rules or alliances. Will the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic become a new arena for old-fashioned great power rivalry? Klaus Dodds, an expert on the polar regions and professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University...
Mar 09, 2025•33 min•Season 5Ep. 72
How can Zelenskyy work with a US President he fundamentally can’t trust? Trump’s decision to pause US aid to Ukraine was the final act in a seismic weekend which sent shockwaves through Europe. Following the dire spectacle of Trump and Vance rounding on Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, is the relationship now purely coercive? Oz Katerji talks to Kyiv-based conflict and human rights journalist and CEO of the Public Interest Journalism Lab Nataliya Gumenyuk, to assess Ukraine’s choices as the world o...
Mar 05, 2025•42 min•Season 5Ep. 71
With Trump seemingly determined to destroy any vestige of a US security guarantee for Europe, is the NATO era coming to an end? Gavin Esler talks to Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who served as Britain’s Director-General of Joint Force Development, Strategic Command, about Europe’s new security reality. Can Europe cope with the threat of an expansionist Russia on its Eastern flank, and a US President who shows no interest in shared values and alliances? • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is sup...
Feb 26, 2025•32 min•Season 5Ep. 70
The free world is reeling and Putin is jubilant as Trump goes over the heads of Ukraine and Europe to “negotiate” directly with Russia – cutting Zelenskyy and European leaders out of talks in Saudi Arabia. Will the two autocrats simply carve Ukraine up between them? Will they heed Zelenskyy’s demand that there be no settlement without Ukraine’s participation? And given Russia’s record of deception, is the notion of a fair and lasting peace just a naive fantasy? Oz Katerji hears the reaction to t...
Feb 20, 2025•36 min•Season 5Ep. 69
Trump has clear disdain for NATO – but could he really pull the US out of the alliance? And what would be its prospects without American support? In the current geopolitical climate, the annual meeting this week of European military, security and political experts – the Munich Security Conference 2025 – has a special urgency. Just how far is the Trump administration truly in or out on European defence? And what are the prospects for NATO in the case of a transatlantic rift in the alliance? Gavin...
Feb 13, 2025•35 min•Season 5Ep. 68
On his return to the White House this January, Donald Trump pledged to be a ‘peacemaker’, after insisting during his campaign that he would bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. Nearly three years into Russia’s all out war on its neighbour, its brutal attacks continue – with incremental territorial gains coming at the costs of thousands of lives. Yet Ukraine’s military still fights to hold the line. Has Trump really got the leverage to bring Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy ...
Feb 06, 2025•36 min•Season 5Ep. 67
When a British submarine surfaced in the North Sea to warn off a Russian spy vessel sailing just 45 miles from the British mainland, a series of shadowy maritime sabotage incidents burst onto the front pages and into public consciousness. In the past year undersea cables vital to European digital infrastructure have been targeted for damage - most notably in the Baltic Sea. With blame difficult to pinpoint, suspicion has fallen on Russia, which Western security services have warned is engaged in...
Jan 30, 2025•36 min•Season 5Ep. 66
For decades the Islamic Republic of Iran used its ties to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen to create conflict and shore up its power in the Middle East and beyond. But in 2024 Iran’s plans and power fell apart in spectacular fashion, from Assad’s fall in Syria to Israel’s devastating attacks on its proxy groups. Once able to export chaos with impunity, Tehran is now in a state of unprecedented weakness. And it faces the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who enacted a strategy o...
Jan 23, 2025•42 min•Season 5Ep. 65
After 15 months of horror, a ceasefire and hostage release deal triggers rejoicing in Israel and Palestine. But the deal is ambiguous and built around only a gradual release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, with no agreement to end the war yet. While Trump rushes to claim credit, some fear the deal is so loose it might collapse. Could this conflict reignite? Gavin Esler talks to Middle East expert Dr H.A. Hellyer of RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security...
Jan 16, 2025•28 min•Season 5Ep. 64
With his unhinged foreign policy pronouncements, including demands that Greenland and the Panama Canal be handed over to the US, and vague threats to annex Canada, Donald Trump is already setting governments on edge. How will the world cope with an America First foreign policy where chaos and uncertainty are features not bugs? And as the self-styled dealmaker vows to bring a swift end to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, what do his nominations to key defence and security roles – among them hawks, ...
Jan 10, 2025•35 min•Season 5Ep. 63
The climate emergency is more urgent than ever, yet powerful interests are still pushing back on solutions and peddling climate denial. From fossil fuel giants to populist governments and greedy online grifters, they sow doubts about four decades of research and undermine a hard-won global political consensus. Who are the Climate Con-Men and how are they succeeding? Gavin Esler talks to Jennie King, Director of Climate Disinformation Research and Policy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a...
Dec 18, 2024•48 min•Season 5Ep. 62
Assad’s stunning fall ends a tyrannical 53-year rule in Syria, leaving monstrous crimes against human rights exposed, rocking both Iran and Russia on their heels, and handing the country’s future back to its people. Where next for Syria? Will the rebel fighters coalesce into a working government and avoid the factionalism which would jeopardise the Syrian people’s hopes? And what does it mean for an international community which had turned its back on the Syrian war? Emma Beals explores an awe-i...
Dec 11, 2024•45 min•Season 5Ep. 61
• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. This year marks a decade since ISIS hit the headlines with their dramatic rise to power in Iraq. It would be easy now to think it is a thing of the past. But in 2024 the group is having a resurgence in Syria, has a presence across Africa, and has morphed into a worldwide operation. With multiple wars and a new phase of global disorder upon us, has the West forgotten about countering the threat of ISIS? Emma Beals ...
Dec 04, 2024•45 min•Season 5Ep. 60
• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump’s talk of boosted tariffs has sparked concerns of a major trade war with America’s rivals. The Chinese government has responded that “no one will win a trade war” and with economists warning that tariffs are liable to increase inflation, who will be the losers of Trump’s trade policies? And how would tariffs affect global relations in an already unstable world? To discuss the potential economic and ge...
Nov 27, 2024•43 min•Season 5Ep. 59
• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump operates in a zero sum world. If he’s going to win, you have to lose. So what will his brutal negotiation methods mean for global diplomatic corps who are already rocked by our turbulent times? Trump is promising an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and threatening global tariffs on US imports, ranging up to 60% on goods from China. Trade wars and worldwide economic dislocation loom. What can leader...
Nov 20, 2024•33 min•Season 5Ep. 58
• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. A destabilised Europe faces a stark choice, now more urgent since Trump’s victory. Make urgent preparations for a shooting war with Russia on our own territory – or prepare to lose that war, with all the terrifying consequences. That’s the argument of Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe? and senior consulting fellow of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. He talks to Gavin Esler about the scale o...
Nov 13, 2024•40 min•Season 5Ep. 57
