This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler - podcast cover

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

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Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 per month to get each episode early plus bonus material and exclusive merchandise. From Podmasters, the team behind Oh God, What Now?, Paper Cuts and The Bunker.
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Episodes

Poison arsenal – The deadly return of bioweapons

Though Saddam Hussein tried to develop them and North Korea is accused of stockpiling them, biological weapons have been considered taboo for decades. Theoretically they’re banned. But intelligence agencies and military leaders are increasingly warning of wider clandestine programmes to develop deadly mass toxins, and A.I. is lowering the barriers to entry dramatically. As governments scramble to keep up and frontier tech runs out of control, are we about to enter a new age of bioweapons and bio...

May 07, 202626 minSeason 5Ep. 140

Inside Russia’s web of terror – How Kremlin proxies wreak havoc across Europe

Acts of sabotage and arson spreading across Europe are persistently connected to Russia. Gavin Esler is joined by Shaun Walker, the Guardian's central and eastern Europe correspondent, to discuss the Kremlin’s shadow warfare network and the chaos state-sponsored terror is causing across the continent. • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR brand in front of ou...

Apr 30, 202631 minSeason 5Ep. 139

America against the World Part 4 – The New Normal?

The final episode of a four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… This time: International leaders cling to the idea that Trump’s violent overthrow of the world order and embrace of raw power will prove temporary. But what if it isn’t? What if we’ve entered a new age where might makes right? And after Iran and Venezuela, is there any coherent vision behind America’s new foreign policy – or is it just driven by anger and greed? Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations explains ...

Apr 27, 202640 minSeason 5Ep. 138

America against the World Part 3 – Who will fill the Power Vacuum?

A four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon . How will we cope with the end of the Pax Americana – and what comes next? This time: As Trump flips the table and walks away from America’s old international role, China want to take advantage. The People’s Republic is squaring up to the US on multiple fronts – economic, technological, cultural and potentially militarily. Sir Robin Niblett , author of The New Cold War , talks to Gavin Esler ...

Apr 23, 202631 min

America against the World Part 2 – Is Washington pulling the world apart?

A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon . How will we cope with the end of Pax Americana – and what comes next? Gavin Esler dives deep into a harsh new era of international relations. In this second episode, has Trump broken the trust-based world order – or just exposed it? Are we building a hostile world of fortresses? What would NATO look like without the US? Ukrainian journalist and author Nataliya Gumenyuk explains how Trump...

Apr 20, 202638 minSeason 5Ep. 136

New Mini-Series – America against the World – Part 1:  There are No Rules Any More

A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon . Trump’s reckless war on Iran was the culmination of a year of aggressive rhetoric and scorn for allies from the White House. It also cemented a new American ethos: the United States will do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, without concern for friends and allies. The Atlanticist nightmare has come true. America has abandoned the world. So how will we cope with the end of Pax American...

Apr 16, 202639 minSeason 5Ep. 135

America against the World - trailer

A brand new four-part mini-series from This Is Not A Drill...as we face the end of Pax Americana, what comes next? Get all episodes now via our Patreon or subscribe to the Podmasters Originals channel on Apple Podcasts . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Apr 15, 20263 min

China vs America – Who will be the soft power superpower?

As America turns against the world, China is seeing more and more opportunities to grow. Its soft power influence is growing and cultural influence is blooming globally. How is this happening and what impact will it have? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, to discuss. • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love o...

Apr 09, 202632 minSeason 5Ep. 134

After Iran, A New Age of Terror?

America’s war on Iran has triggered deadly consequences across the Middle East, with attacks on oil supplies causing a global economic shock. Now, as authorities investigate terror-related violence and sabotage in the US and Europe, are we headed for a new era of terror similar to what followed America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? And in a world critically dependent on digital infrastructure, how safe are we from the threat of online sabotage? Gavin Esler finds out from Graig Klein , Assistan...

Apr 02, 202641 minSeason 5Ep. 133

Iran vs. the Gulf – Is there any going back to normal?

Facing aerial bombardment and the economic shock of an oil crisis, the Gulf States have found themselves on the front lines of war in the Middle East. As missiles and drones attack oil and civilian infrastructure, how will Iran’s neighbours respond to the latest major escalation in long-term regional rivalry? And what are the consequences for the stability and prosperity of an entire region? Gavin Esler discusses the reaction to the conflict in the Gulf with Allison Minor, Director of the Projec...

Mar 26, 202632 minSeason 5Ep. 132

Trump says he wants to end the Iran war. Can he?

Donald Trump has claimed he will choose when the Iran war is over – but does he really have that choice? Faced with Iranian retaliation and a conflict spilling out across the Middle East, what is in his control and what isn’t? And as Iran’s regime continues to attack US allies in the region, closing the Straits of Hormuz with global economic repercussions, is the US administration stumbling into another protracted war in the Middle East? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the M...

Mar 19, 202630 min

Despatch from Beirut – Oz Katerji reports as Trump's Iran war rocks the Middle East

The US/Israeli war with Iran has led to a wave of conflict across the Middle East. In Lebanon, missile attacks on Israel from Hezbollah militants have been met with an Israeli assault – which has led to hundreds of deaths and more than 750,000 displaced from their homes. Reporting from Beirut, Oz Katerji talks to Lebanese political writer and organiser Karim Safieddine. They discuss the future for a Lebanese population which has endured years of conflict, now yet again dragged into regional warf...

Mar 13, 202632 minSeason 5Ep. 130

Trump's Iran doom spiral – Where does this end?

Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli attacks, widening the conflict across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, is Donald Trump risking the kind of endless war he campaigned against? And for Iran, how long can its regime last in the face of the assault, and what does its retaliation risk? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and w...

Mar 05, 202630 minSeason 5Ep. 129

Trump’s deadly Iran gamble – Emergencycast with Paul Salem in Beirut

Trump’s stunning surprise attack on Iran could be the most consequential world event since 9/11. Will the President’s goal of smooth regime change work when it failed every other time, or trigger a regional conflagration? Iran’s hated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead but the Islamic Republic is showing no sign of collapsing. And now Hezbollah has attacked other Arab states as well as British and US military targets. How will the war play out? How resilient is the Islamic Republic? Does Israel...

Mar 02, 202630 minSeason 5Ep. 128

Does Putin really think he can still win in Ukraine?

It has been four years since the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Does Vladimir Putin still believe he is leading Russia to a military victory, or is he now banking on winning at the negotiating table? Gavin Esler talks to Samuel Greene, Professor of Russian Politics at King’s College London. You can read more from Professor Greene at his Substack, TL;DRussia . Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every mont...

Feb 26, 202630 min

Friend or foe? – Do Rubio's words in Munich change anything for Europe?

What a difference a year makes - or does it? The 2025 Munich Security Conference was shocked by divisive words from the US Vice President JD Vance. But at this year’s gathering, Marco Rubio represented America and struck a more conciliatory tone. What does this mean for Europe? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr. Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). So...

Feb 19, 202625 minSeason 5Ep. 126

AI vs. The World – Can we handle the threats of artificial intelligence?

Artificial intelligence is playing an increasing role in all our daily lives – and handing over power to AI comes with many risks. From misinformation and disruption to autonomous war technology, can we handle the dangers? Gavin Esler talks to Alex Hern , AI writer at The Economist. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR...

Feb 12, 202631 minSeason 5Ep. 125

The Winter War — How Ukraine is facing Russia’s cruelty

As temperatures plummet in Ukraine, Putin’s military is continuing to target the country’s power supply, leaving civilians suffering as the war continues toward a fifth year. With the diplomatic crises and international flashpoints of recent months dragging attention away from Ukraine, what are the prospects for the coming year, both on the battlefield and in the stalled peace process? Gavin Esler discusses the latest with This Is Not A Drill presenter and Kyiv-based conflict reporter Oz Katerji...

Feb 05, 202623 minSeason 5Ep. 124

Xi's world – Will China control the future?

For years Xi Jinping has mapped out a strategy for the rise of China as a superpower. How will this ambition shape the world’s future? In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler talks to Elizabeth Economy , Hargrove senior fellow the Hoover Institution, about China’s plans in a series of ‘frontier domains’, from the bottom of the sea to outer space. Read Elizabeth Economy’s article ‘ How China Wins the Future ’ in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs here . Advertisers! Want to rea...

Jan 29, 202635 minSeason 5Ep. 123

Rage against the regime – Will Iran's government fall?

A wave of protests has swept Iran and been met by a brutal crackdown. Could this mark the end of the ruling regime? Thousands have been killed and the government faces a continuing backlash, growing economic crisis and Trump’s threats to take military action against the nation. Gavin Esler is joined by Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews , and author of The Politics of Nationalism in Modern Iran . • Support us on Patreon to...

Jan 22, 202629 minSeason 5Ep. 122

Destroyer in chief – Is Trump breaking the world?

So far in 2026, self-described peacemaker Donald Trump has captured Nicolas Maduro in a Special Forces raid in Venezuela and now has his eyes on Greenland. To discuss the realities of the Trump administration’s foreign policy and US politics in the year of the midterm elections, Gavin Esler is joined by Bill Kristol , editor at large of the Bulwark and former chief of staff to Vice President Dan Quayle. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like...

Jan 15, 202631 minSeason 5Ep. 121

Trump, Venezuela and 2026 – A new era of chaos

Trump’s New Year attack on Venezuela and the capturing of President Maduro shocked the world. In the first of a series of episodes assessing the biggest security issues in 2026, Gavin Esler talks to former UK national security adviser Peter Ricketts about the year to come, the consequences of Trump’s Venezuela raid and the risks of a new era of great powers carving up the globe. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presen...

Jan 07, 202635 minSeason 5Ep. 120

2025 has already shaken the world. What’s next?

The geopolitical shocks of 2025 have the potential to reverberate for decades to come. Trump’s America first agenda and the new US national security strategy risk European unity, security and the rise of far right politics; Trump's trade wars have served to increase the pressure on states looking to balance relations with the US, China and also a rising India, and Israel’s assaults in Iran, Gaza and Lebanon have changed the balance of power in the Middle East. In the final episode of the year, G...

Dec 18, 202540 minSeason 5Ep. 119

Critical Mass – The new battle for energy supremacy

As the world pivots from fossil fuels and demand for electricity rises, who will control the new levers of power? The critical minerals and rare earths that tech depends on are the ultimate resources in a new “Great Game” between China, the US, Europe and Russia. What does the race to control the supply of these minerals mean for the future of the environment, security and global competition? To unpack the geopolitics of future energy supply and rare earths, Emma Beals is joined by Dr Patrick Sc...

Dec 11, 202531 minSeason 5Ep. 118

Russia-Ukraine deal – Can anyone force Putin to change course?

Trump’s push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine looks as far away as ever after failed talks this week – can anyone move Putin closer to a realistic agreement? To make sense of the US-led peace process so far and how a potential deal might realistically be achieved, Gavin Esler is joined by Steven Pifer , former US ambassador to Ukraine, an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and the author of The Eagle and the Trident: U.S.-Ukraine...

Dec 04, 202531 minSeason 5Ep. 117

Trump on the world stage – Deal maker or faker?

Donald Trump claims a record of peace agreements spanning from Asia to the Americas. Do these claims hold up? What can we learn about Trump’s efforts to resolve conflicts, and can his deals hold and achieve lasting peace? And what does his transactional approach mean for global security and America’s role in the world? Emma Beals talks to Richard Haass , former advisor to both Bush administrations and President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Samir Puri , director of the Global...

Nov 27, 202546 minSeason 5Ep. 116

War on the world – Are conflicts leading us to climate oblivion?

As conflicts and tariff wars disrupt the global order, is political division preventing urgent action to protect the planet? A decade ago world leaders gathered at COP 21 in Paris to discuss the climate crisis - 194 countries signing a breakthrough agreement to limit global warming. By this year, as COP 30 meets in Brazil, the 1.5 degree target on global warming has been breached. Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the future for climate action and whether countries can find consensus to meet the bi...

Nov 20, 202533 minSeason 5Ep. 115

Can we stop the fall of Europe?

The European Union has some hard choices to make. It’s faced with an aggressive Russia on its borders, a US administration with limited enthusiasm for the NATO alliance and political divisions in its member states. Behind all this lies deep uncertainty about the coherence of the Union and its economic future in a world economy increasingly dominated by the US and China. What can be done to protect the European way of life and secure unity on the continent? Gavin Esler talks to leading economic t...

Nov 13, 202530 minSeason 5Ep. 114

Europe's drone wall – Could it hold back Russia?

A series airspace violations by Russian jets and drones have increased tensions over European skies – could a new ‘drone wall’ now protect Europe’s Eastern flank? With plans announced for a new aerial defence system to protect Eastern borders, how would a drone wall work, and can the EU and NATO deliver on promises to improve Europe’s defences? In today’s episode, Oz Katerji talks to Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower & Technology at RUSI. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill...

Nov 06, 202536 minSeason 5Ep. 113

Big Tech, A.I. and the dictators – Inside the future of authoritarianism

What will happen when dictators realise just how useful big tech and the data it gathers could be for them? How is this already happening – and how could it expand, as A.I. ramps up the way draconian governments can use tech? Bruce Schneier, a renowned cyber security expert, best-selling author and co-author of Rewiring Democracy How AI Will Transform Our Politics, Government, and Citizenship joins Gavin Esler to discuss. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni the service ...

Oct 30, 202523 minSeason 5Ep. 112
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