WILL WAR END THE CRYPTO BULL MARKET?

Let's kick it off by talking about bitcoin, because obviously

there's macro uncertainty out there with the war between Israel and Iran, and of course wars are never a good thing. You have a lot of innocent people that lose their lives and you go through a lot of hardships. You know, I don't think I need to go through that. But the question is is this ending the crypto bullmarket? Is this going to stop everything? Right? That is the big question.

That is something a lot of people are talking about and with the uncertainty around it, and I want to take a look at the charts, and I also want to remind you that remember the Russia Ukraine War. Remember COVID and they're shut down the the economy. Do those things stop the bull markets? They did not, because bull markets are not tied to these things, they're tied to global liquidity, any software financial cycle. So we of course

went through the quantitative tightening cycle. Starting at the top of the last bullmarket, which was about November December twenty twenty one, the Fed came out, started raising rates, stopped purchasing securities, and much more, stop supporting the markets, and then full bear market. Then they pause rate heights and central banks around the globe started printing money again, and

global liquidity has been on the rise since. So we're still in a bullmarket by those respective signals and metrics, and we're going to talk a bit much about that, but I want to make sure that you understand that despite war being a bad thing, or they're being bad news or things like that, it doesn't mean the bullmarket

it's over. So we have to pay attention to the facts, the data of the metrics, not our emotions, because yes we can feel feared, Yes we can feel uncertainty and feel bad about what's happening in the war and much more, but that does not mean the bull market's over. So Bitcoin on the daily chart still hovering around the one hundred and three to one hundred and five thousand level. I think we could potentially keep going down and touch ninety eight k, a kind of a key support level there.

We are still comfortably above the two hundred day moving average, and as I always say, nothing good happens below the two hundred day moving average. If you're below it at an extended period of time in a downtrend, that's a bear market. But if you're above it and you've got an uptrend like we've been seeing, we're in a bull market. So I know that's a very simplistic way of looking at it, and it's just one metric. We're going to

look at multiple things. But overall, things are still on track here despite the headwinds and the volatility we may face. If you look at the stock market, specifically the S and P five hundred, we have v shaped recovered out of that Tarerff crash that took place in March and April, and the stock market is cooling down a bit, but

nothing goes up in a straight line. It is above the two hundred day moving average as well, and here Titan of crypto Analysts on x highlighted bitcoin from a weekly standpoint, said Bitcoin is sitting right at the key structural level holding it would preserve the bullet structure. The weekly clothes will be crucial. So we're seeing bitcoin still

holding the key support levels, which is good. And some of the macro metrics that we've been following for a long time, such as global liquidity shows global equidity continues to rise. So this is all the central banks around the globe and what they've been doing as far as currency debasement and more liquidity goes into the economy, the markets and much more. That there is a lag you know, bitcoin and other risk assets lag global equity by three months.

So everything is still on track here. Now if there's a deviation, we'll go back to the drawing board and say, okay, what happened right what was the catalyst that changed? But right now it's still on track. And in addition, the DXY, the Dollar currency index continues to break down. And here the folks at Global Macro investor Julian Battel, who works with Rol Powell, showed in the last Trump administration when

they were looking for a week dollar. Because of course that's great for risk assets and the markets and much more. We see the current dxy pattern in this downtrend is following that as well, so there's room for this to keep going down, and of course that's very good for risk assets. So you see these macro metrics, if you want to call them, that are aligning to bull market. Right, all feelings and emotions aside. You're going to see people say,

see that's it, it's over see war. Yet they would simply forget about the Ukraine Russia war when everybody was saying the same thing, see war. No oh bullmarket. Bull market's canceled this time around, And it's like, yeah, that's just sentiment, that's just your emotions that is not based on data. So the data is showing is something very different. Now, if you go to the Fed's website, you look at the M two money supply, and you know we were

just talking about global liquidity. Look at this. It is just spiking going higher and higher. So they've got some pseudo quantitative easing going on here. They're inserting liquidity in different ways, so the numbers don't lie here. And of course, like I said, assets are correlated to this. I love what expert traders Fenn Henrik had to say. You usually see him on CNBC. He says, all I know is that the final missile will be QE. He's absolutely right.

Whether it's war or COVID or whatever it is, what are they going to have to do? Print right? This is the status quo. There's no way around it. This is the Fiat system, and your asset prices will rise as a result. So that's why you want to be positioned in assets. You want to buy the dims, buy the blood on the street, and of course sell the blow off top, sell the euphoric reed phase. That is what we're looking to do. This bullmarket's not over. Now.

Let's validate this thesis with some more data on chain. Data from Sentiment shows Bitcoin whales with ten or more bitcoin in their wallets continue to accumulate. There was a massive spike at the end of May into early June and that calmed down a bit, but now it's slowly on the rise again. So the whales are not exiting the market. They continue to accumulate. So when I look at all these things global liquidity, DXY, the stock market, the bitcoin chart, and the structures that are still in place,

and whales keep accumulating. I have all the respective facts and there's more, but these are the key ones that we are still in the bullmarket despite what the news tells you, despite what people will post, Oh it's over see fear or fear fear. They want you to feel fear, but they won't give you any data. They won't give you any chart analysis, they won't give you on chain data, they won't say look at the macro, despite what's going

on in the news. So guys, make sure you're listening and watching the right things and not falling for nonsense and people who are pushing fear. And on the topic

of whales accumulating, we are seeing bitcoin ETFs, so we're talking black rock and all the big issuers continue to see inflows, so they're not seeing out of flows despite the geopolitical tensions. So here the headline bitcoin ETFs record five day inflow streak amid geopolitical tension. So people are buying the dips and buying the fear. And look, that's the principle of markets, as Warren Buffett said, right, be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

If you've been here long enough. You know the cycles folks. You know that when the grandma's and taxicab drivers and uber drivers are talking about crypto investment and everybody's bullish and they think it's not going to end, it's going to keep going, that's when you want to be fearful. I know it seems weird to say that despite once again war in the Middle East, and look, there's always been war in the Middle East. I mean, it's been

going on forever. But regardless of these things that are happening, you got to look at the data to see what's happening, especially global liquidity, and I'll tell you the story of where things are going. So in flows continue here and look at this, Michael Saylor says he's looking to buy bitcoin despite the Israel Iran conflict, so we could hear an announcement tomorrow that you know, him and the folks of Strategy bought some bitcoins. So I think the signs

are there right in multiple ways. The signs are there as to where we're at and where we're going. So at this point we've got to be patient. And I know that's a big part that people struggle with the patients. I want the money. Now, I've been waiting too long. I'm tired of all these things. Leave your emotions at the door. If you leave your emotions and just look at the data, it becomes a lot easier. And if looking at the price bothers, you take a break from it.

If nothing's happening right now, bigqoin's just consolidating, and in fact, you may go lower before we go higher. Then step away from the charts. That's a great thing to do. I do that. I don't look at my portfolio on days like this and when things like this are happening. I've mentioned that before. I don't open my you know, lead Treasure sweet or or hardware wallets sweet and you know, take a look at my portfolio value. I just don't

do it. I've learned my lesson because look, it sucks to see your portfolio declining or even in some sort of pullback despite being up significantly from the bear market bottom. So we're all human and we get to do the things that help us to navigate the markets. Now, folks, quick word from our sponsor, and that is Treasure makes beautiful hardware wallets that make you easy for you to safely store your crypto I'm a user of the product. I use the Treasure Save five and Treasure they were

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We know Trump and his companies, quite a few of them are involving crypto. You got Word Liberty, financially, you got Trump Media, a truth social all getting involved with crypto in one way or the other. So here's the headline, Trump Media clears sec hurdle for two point three billion dollars share resale. So many may recall they are looking to do a bitcoin treasury strategy and they raise two

point three billion dollars to buy bitcoins. So incredible, And then you got truth Social If I'm not mistaken, they're looking to launch a bitcoin ETF, and of course we're Liberty Financial. The only thing I'm not a fan of is the meme coin, but it is what it is at this point. But Trump is making progress. And once again read between the lines here. You could hate Donald Trump or you could love him. That's not the point, right, put that to the side. How you feel about the man.

Just look at the business moves he's making, what his kids are doing. If you know Trump, he's about making money. He wouldn't be doing this to lose money. He knows legislation's coming, he knows his markets are going to go higher. So he's positioning himself, especially around crypto, because he knows it's going to go higher. I don't think he's going to do this to lose his money. All of a sudden, bear bull market's over. We're entering too a bear market.

And everything goes down by eighty percent. Obviously he's not going to do that. So again read between the lines, right and once get all politics, all feelings aside. Once again, if you hate their love the man, that's not the point. I'm looking at this strictly from an investment standpoint of who's making what moves, who's getting involved. Watch what they do, not what they say, right, folks. So this is a very bullish sign. Now, something interesting came up. Someone on

x tweeted about how if you go on coinbase, right, and bitcoin is currently trading at one hundred and five thousand, three hundred dollars, but if you look to buy some of that bigcoin at that price, they charge you one hundred and six thousand, nine hundred and if you want to sell, it's one hundred and three nine fifty. Why is that it's fees? Right? There's a markup, and these

exchanges are making a lot of money. And Eric Balchuniz, who's an ETF expert at Bloomberg, says, like I've been saying, crypto exchanges have commissions that would make a nineteen seventy stockbroker blush, especially for newbies. No wonder ETF's growing like wildfire. They blow this shit out of the water. So he's saying, and it's along the lines what I've been saying for

a long time. These crypto exchanges better up their game because Wall Street's here for the takeover and they're going to look to steal market share from these crypto exchanges, whether it be coinbase and binance and much more, because they charge a very low fee and they're able to do that because they're dealing with volume, right and they have the brand, they have the existing customer base, and

you know, they're pushing this to the mainstream. While crypto exchanges, don't get me wrong, are catering to mainstream, but they're not able to make that major push like a blow Rocker Fidelity, which is already established, you know what I mean. So these crypto exchanges better watch what they're doing. If they're going to charge an arm and a leg, they're gonna lose business to people who are gonna go with

et aps. And if the tradi fi folks start saying stuff about the exchanges like, hey, you got to be careful with these guys. You can't custody with them. They don't know what they're doing. Trust us. We've been doing this for a long time, longer than they have. Right, that's a plausible narrative to put out there to take business away. Right. I'm not saying I want all these things to happen. I'm just thinking logically here of what may take place. So it's something that you need to

be aware of. Now. You know, exchanges like Coinbase and even other platforms have advanced features like Coinbase has the advanced feature where the fees are lower, but you got to know what you're doing as far as doing these things. You can set limit orders for buy and sell, and there's a maker taker fee, but it's not like you know what they're charging here. So something to keep in mind.

And like I said, if these exchanges don't up their game, Wall Street's going to come in and say, hey, the ETFs, you don't have to worry about anything. We've custodied your traditional assets like stocks and gold and much more. We're gonna cust to your crypto for you, and it'll be a lot easier for you then going to exchanges and much more. So this is just an interesting conversation that took place today that I think you guys should know about and be aware of with with how exchanges charge

fees and the markups and much more. Folks, that's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button. A great way you can support me is by subscribing to my free email newsletter. It's one hundred percent free. Check out my book on Amazon, it's available in paperback, in digital, and my course at mycrypto course dot com. Thank you for watching and listening. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you all later