¶ Intro
Coin hasn't quite reacted to that stock market bounce the way we would hope they are up a little today. Bitcoin is and several old coins, but it's pretty modest. Has Bitcoin still sitting at around seventy seven K and was up to a little over eighty one K two weeks ago.
Hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host Tony Edward, and joining me today is Brian from Sentiment, And as you all know, we're going to do a d dive into the metrics, the on chain metrics to get an idea what is going to happen next for bitcoin and all coins. Brian, great to see you. Good to see you, Tony. Always a pleasure, Yeah, Brian. You
know we do these every two weeks. Going through the data is very fascinating and insightful, and you know, we usually like to kick it off with Bitcoin to get an idea of how the market's following bitcoin. So maybe
¶ Bitcoin analysis
we can start with that and some of the price action we're seeing overall.
Yeah, Bitcoin Sentiment.
If we take a look here, you can see the big dip here that happened during that kelp dou fiasco that's now can't believe it about a month old. But after that big dip that of course wasn't directly related to Bitcoin, nevertheless impacted people's trust for crypto as a whole. We saw Bitcoin climb back above eighty k, sentiment more than recovered, got super positive just a week later, and
then has slightly shrunk ever since. The ratio between all the bullish comments versus all the bearish comments you're seeing across social media right now sits at about one point three to five to one, which is just slightly above average. So from a sentiment perspective, not really a big extreme in either direction. If anything, there's a very very slight fomocentric attitude from the crowd. Even though it slipped a little over the past few weeks.
Yeah, to your point, Bitcoin it kind of hit a wall at around eighty two k, couldn't get over to two hundred day moving average, and it's been sliding since. But I think people are still a little bullish to your point, because it didn't drop significantly. You know, bigcoin went out to seventy six k, But if we were to crash below seventy k, maybe sentiment will you know, go down faight, Yeah.
It's a very what have you done for me lately type of mindset with crypto traders, And understandably, it's a very fast moving market and people want to see results quickly. But you know, even just this signal from a couple days ago, this was Monday, once we saw that the ratio if you look at the top left of my screen there where the yellow little key shows point nine to eight, the ratio was showing that there were actually less bullish comments than bearish comments for the first time
since about a month ago. That was the signal that we were probably bottoming out. And sure enough, the drop got halted right when this happened, and then after it halted, that's when things rebounded back again. So now the question is are we going to start seeing this level of euphoria again, which does tend.
To cause tops as we saw here.
Or are we going to just stay in the middle because nobody quite knows what to think at the moment.
Yeah, great point. So I'm curious what the MVRV looks like. Is Bitcoin overheated? Is it's starting to cool down on the thirty day plus the long term one year of view, mm.
Hmm, Yeah, so we'll zoom out to three months here, and we're going to look at the thirty day as well as the three sixty five day MVRV. From a thirty day perspective, it's still a slight bit overheated because obviously we've been on a heck of a run since the beginning of April.
Here.
Prices are overall up roughly.
Call it seven teen sixteen percent or so since the beginning of April, and that's been enough to keep the thirty day average returns sitting at about plus five percent. So if you were to buy in now with the expectation of kind of short term results, you'd be doing
so with a little more risk than usual. Even though yes, we've declined a bit over the last ten to eleven days, the thirty day perspective is still showing we're slightly at risk right now because of this long trend of I guess I should say the midterm trend of bullish momentum
we've seen. But from a long term perspective, this blue line here is still good news because it shows the average traders still down about sixteen percent on average from all the wallets that we collect data on from anyone anyone that has moved money into last year, basically made any sort of transaction they're showing up here and averaging all those together, they're down sixteen percent, meaning you'd still be buying into a lot of blood in the streets if your goal is to buy and hold for a
year or more, which I know a lot of people watching do exactly that.
Yeah, and to your point, you know, we are technically in a bear market. Even though we've seen a bit of a rally, there's still the potential for another downward move. And again that's not guaranteed, but given the timeline of the Foyer cycles and how we've seen that play out, to your point, if you're buying now for the next year or two years, you're still in a good place.
M hmm.
Yeah, And you mentioned us being in a bear market. I think that's a fair argument. Everyone has their own definition, of course, as to what a bull versus bear market is,
what time frame you should look at. But if we just simplify it and look from our all time high right now, from back on October fifth or sixth, depending on your time zone, bitcoins still down thirty eight percent from that from that peak when everyone was celebrating and breaking out the confetti over one hundred and twenty six k BTC.
Yeah, yeah, definitely makes sense. I'm curious what the whales are doing because I've been looking at this chart on saniment over a few past few weeks and it's looking interesting with retail wallets seemingly dropping. But I wanted to go through this in detail with you.
Yeah, you know, when we checked it out at the beginning of the month, it was looking good because we had seen retail these red and yellow lines up here, they were dropping off pretty rapidly for the first time in a long time. But then as of two weeks ago May sixth, they've started to accumulate pretty much as
normal once again. While this green line, which represents the percentage of the overall sopply held by those key stakeholders ten to ten KBTC wallets that have a little over two thirds of all the supply, they're starting to drop off a little bit again, which is a concern. It means that this mild drop off we've seen over the past week is somewhat justified because the key stakeholders have been dumping, and if we look at it from the peak on April twenty fourth, call it four weeks ago.
They've dumped since that time thirty eight and seventy bitcoin in total, which is about a quarter of a percentage of their overall holdings.
Interesting if we go to a shorter timeframe, let's say the past month, But what does it look like, curious is kind of neck connecting.
It gets a little flattened out.
I mean, we if we won't have the time, we could just sort of straighten out the axes a little bit here point six eight. No, it's not gonna be worth it for the sake of this video, but yeah it. I mean, I like to look at it from the perspective of like three or six months, just because you can see the ebbs and flows.
A little better.
But nevertheless, if we zoom in a little bit, you can still kind of see, you know, the peak was back here April twenty fourth, and they're moving down, and you can kind of see on the top left of my screen the percentage differences in all of these different tiers. The green the blue is basically just the absolute holdings. The green is the percentage of supply for the key stakeholders, and then yellow is absolute holdings for the tiny retail
while it's and red is their percentage of supply. So basically small retail is moving up and large key stakeholders are moving slightly down, which is not the ideal combo. That said, it's not like they're dumping massively the key stakeholders.
It's all pretty relative compared to like February. If we go back three months, there's still that pretty significantly with those key stakeholders up about eighty one a little over eighty one k btc since that bottom where we were threatened to go below sixty k and people were really getting scared.
Yeah, yeah, that definitely makes sense. So I guess we have to watch as closely to see what happens. And especially you know, there's a correlation with the stock market.
¶ BTC Stocks & Gold comparison
We've seen crypto move with the stock market, and that's been correcting because it was overheated. So you wonder if you know, these whales and market makers are all looking at the larger markets. Okay, that's pulling back. It's going to create a barer sentimental Let's do the same on crypto, right.
Yeah.
Yeah, we can see that the S and P five hundred hit yet another all time high back on Thursday, May fourteenth, and then declined a bit. Since they're rebounding a bit today, Today's a pretty green day in the markets, which is something I think a lot of people were waiting on. I saw some retailers starting to get a little bit bit of doom and gloom toward equities, thinking that we were finally hitting the top and now we
were going to fall back down. Well, at least for today, it looks like we're reversing course and moving back toward that all time high.
Again.
Coin hasn't quite reacted to that stock market bounce the way we would hope. They are up a little today. Bitcoin is and several old coins, but it's pretty modest, as Bitcoin still sitting at around seventy seven K and was up to a little over eighty one K two weeks ago. Meanwhile, gold is down still, even though I did see gold and silver having a pretty decent day today. So yes, I do think that Bitcoin and the S
and P are still pretty correlated. If we just zoom out like two months for the past two months ago, you can see the correlation more clearly.
With here.
I'll just hide gold for a minute, kid, how Bitcoin and green here and the S and P five hundred and teal are pretty much matching neck and neck up until the end of last week, where Bitcoin nosedived a little over the weekend while the S and P was obviously not trading because it only trades on weekdays during a certain amount of time on the US schedule, and
so this was kind of the difference. Bitcoin really dropped and all coins did too this past weekend, while the S and pstd put So there is an argument that Bitcoin can have some mild catch up to the S and P in order to justify that this correlation is still intact.
Well, yeah, for sure. How about we look at all coins starting with Ethereum. I've seen a lot of bearish posts.
¶ Ethereum analysis
People are a little bit down on Ether, which, you know, we look at the metrics and that might be good sentiments in the dump and it might be setting up for it to but who knows.
Yeah, I've seen all sorts of stuff with tom Lee and vitallic and the Ethereum Foundation having a lot of uncertainty surrounding it. From an actual sentiment perspective, it does seem to match the narrative that a lot of us have seen on our timelines with a little more negativity than we've seen in a while. Every alt coin tends to run a little hotter than Bitcoin when it comes to what an average ratio of bullish versus bearish comments are, so right here it's shown about one point twenty nine
to one in terms of positive versus native comments. That would be fine for Bitcoin, but for Ethereum it's definitely on the low side. I mean, if we just zoomed into the last month especially, you can see how drastic the difference is. It's just gradually faded for the last four weeks or zero, this yellow ratio. I mean, we were up at about two and a half to one here, and that obviously was a top signal. This would have been the perfect time to sell the most positive ratio over the past month.
And then you see one more big.
Positive bullish surge here, and that was your ideal time to sell one more mild bullish signal here, and then we drop again. So this has been a very good signal for Ethereum overall, and right now it's actually showing that people are leaning so negative that there's some justification for you to buy. While a lot of others are scoffing at the number two market gap at the moment.
Yeah, and I wonder, you know, if bitcoin has a little bit more steam in it and it does a bit of a rally following the S and P five hundred and then NASDAC in a mini rally so to speak, not a major move. That once Bitcoin cools off rotational liquidity, then eat is so in the dumbs. Then it starts ripping, and then people fum all back into it, the same story, friend cycle, right exactly.
Yeah, And I'm just checking out the ratio too, because we've got stats on just the ratio between any ald coin versus bitcoins price, and look at the last six months. I mean, man, that's pretty jarring looking at just like these five weeks here where the ratio between Ether and BTC is about negative thirteen and a half percent, while Bitcoin itself or ethereum itself is only down about ten
ish percent. So yeah, it's just anytime Bitcoin retraces, ethereum seems to get hammered, like a lot of alt coins typically do. But ethereum usually holds its own a little better than this. So I'm curious what the MVRV looks like, because that's usually the other metric we can use to validate the sentiment, right, and is it where is it at as far as profitability, So, unlike Bitcoin, there is an opportunity on both the short and long term. Ethereum's
mvrvs at negative six percent. You remember Bitcoin was at plus five, so that's a pretty drastic difference. And on top of that, the long term three sixty five day.
Holders are down a little over.
Negative twenty eight percent, or I should say under negative twenty eight percent. Both indicate that if you were to buy in now, whether it's on a short term time frame strategy or a long term time frame strategy, you'd be doing so with less risk than the average moment of investing in ethereum.
Yeah. So obviously not financial advice, but this certainly looks good. I may want to, you know, add a little bit here, swing, trade some eat. Obviously I have a long term whole bag, but you know, this might be a good spot to grab some wait for it to market to rip then you know, as they say, buy to dipsel to rip.
Yeah, I mean, if you want to just look at one soul metric on sand where you can just trust the math regardless of all the noise you're seeing, every day on social media. M VRV does stay pretty true if you just buy while others are in pain, especially when it's you know, both the short and long term are showing the same thing, like right here, both very negative ideal time to buy, both very positive ideal time to sell. Here again, both very positive ideal time to
sell at least temporarily, but more often than not. You can trust these metrics, especially when they're both negative or both both positive. And this would be a pretty moderate, too strong bisignal if you just trust the zero sum game that is every cryptocurrency under the sun. Yeah, Plus you add the sentiment, which we just looked at, and you're building your case here right, you have multiple metrics screaming this thing is, this is a great opportunity to
again and again not financial advice. You got to look at other factors as well, but certainly these are strong straw metrics.
Great point.
How about XRP, MVRV and sentiment.
¶ XRP analysis
Yeah, it's pretty similar to ethereum. The long term is even more negative, meaning there's an even stronger justification for a long term buy negative thirty five and a half percent. That's it's been consistently around there for a little over three months now. Meanwhile, MVRV the thirty day MVRB has dipped back into negative range, sitting at about negative three percent.
So again that golden rule, they're both below.
Zero, meaning you'd be buying, whether you're doing short or long term trading at a at a less risky point than the average moment in xrp's eleven twelve year history.
Now, yeah, I mean, wow, the long term is really underwater.
Yeah, negative anything below negative thirty, no matter what outset you're looking at, that's something that should provide confidence in your investment because you're you're really you have something that quantifies how much blood in the streets there is, and you can buy knowing that your fellow peers that you're trading against, you're not on the same team just because they're investing in the same asset you're buying when those
fellow peers have already experienced immense losses that you haven't because you'd be opening afresh a fresh new entry into XRP. So try to look at it from the perspective that you're trying to buy when others are low, and you're selling when others are high. Not just the price but how others are actually performing, And.
I'm curious what the sentiment looks like if it matches, you know, kind of how Etherorem's sentiment matches the NBRB.
It's been pretty up and down lately, a little more down than up, which is a good sign.
Pretty similar to Etherium.
It looks like a little below its average, which if I marked it would probably be around there. So one point seven bullish for every one bearish comment. It may sound high, but XRP historically runs close to like a two to one ratio on average, so considering it's still below that is a good sign. And it's been below that for at least the last outside of this one outlier on the fourteenth, which was when everything popped a lot, the past ten days, it's been consistently more negative than
usual in terms of sentiment. Interesting, so pretty much it looks like majority these all coins are getting a lot of negative sentiment because they haven't performed as well. People were expecting a major rally following Bitcoin, but then Bitcoin gets rejected, and look, I'm not saying this whole rally is over, but still you can see why the crowd is not happy. Yeah, of course, so I mean, people just react to price sometimes regardless of what news is
coming out, what integrations might be forming. You know, you had the rakutin partnership about a month maybe a little over a month ago now, and that caused a lot of hype. But it dies down if the price doesn't react to it. And it's just always been that way. And if we want to talk about one that has
¶ Hyperliquid analysis
been getting a lot of positive attention right now, you and I talked before they called out hype Tony, and I think this is a really interesting graph right here. This is essentially the positive versus negative funding rates. So how much lungs are paying shorts or how much shorts are paying longs across all different exchanges and average together.
And first and foremost, if you've been living under a rock just over the past week since May thirteenth up until now, hypes price is up about thirty five thirty six percent now, and you can see how much people did not believe in the first run and especially this second run. So all these red bars indicate that shorts were significantly outpacing longs according to perpetual perpetual contract funding rates. Talk about futures margin types of entries things like that.
All of these big red bars indicate that people were betting against the price and then got super burned, especially on this final leg up that just happened in the past twenty four hours. Just if I just looked at yeah, a little under twenty four hours, called about twelve hours, Yeah, hyper liquids up another ten percent, which is massive for such a short.
Amount of time.
And so finally in the last call it six to eight hours, we see the funding rate kind of reset back to normal. But I wouldn't be surprised if the shorts start to pour in again, especially if it drops back below fifty, which was a big psychological support level for a lot of people. And then you've got another
by signal that starts. Because funding rates kind of like sentiment and kind of like MVRV, they work as a great counter signal, especially when you see extremes like this, tons and tons of shorts and people trying to profit off of the price going down. That's usually your entry to buy, not investment advice. You need to do research on why people are shorting and white prices are going up and down, But trusting the metrics you tend to
do pretty well. When you counter signal against the shorts or counter signal against the lungs, which I'm sure has happened before for hyper liquid as well.
If we go, ah, well, we don't.
It looks like we only have data for the last couple months for hyper liquid, But if I just showed Bitcoin, for example, these would be the moments right here where there's like super lungs and sure enough that ends up being the all time high and exactly where you want to sell, and then short's happened, that's where you want to buy.
You get the idea.
Yeah, very fascinating and hype to your point, performing incredibly well, and there's been a lot of news like ETFs being launched around it, so it's it's interesting, this is one that's been getting a lot of social media talk.
And so yep, and we, of course we can quantify how much social media talk with our social dominance metric, which just looks at how much of the total pie of all the coin discussions happening on a daily basis are being dedicated.
To hyper liquid.
At about one point one percent of all discussions. Hyper liquid is seeing its highest social dominance of the year right now, and it's i think Tony almost certainly due to some of the ETF discussion combined with the price, and the price is reacting to all the ETF discussion, and I think most people attribute hype going above fifty
being directly due to the ETF announcement. So these all kind of connect together, and you've got the biggest social dominance day since November fourteenth or so, about a six month high.
Wow.
I don't know, do you guys have MVRV setup as yet or is it a bit too early?
We don't yet because hyper liquid isn't an ETH based token, but you know, obviously it being the tenth largest market cap in crypto, now, that's the kind of thing that's going to get our developers to give it some attention. So we can quickly get some some extended metrics and data points for such an important asset to so many people right now, kind of like what we did for Cardono and of course XRP, even though they aren't EATH based assets.
Right. How about Solana sentiment?
¶ Solana analysis
Good, good question, So I'll just use this same template. Funning rates kind of neutralized. Now, Look how many shorts there were though right at the bottom, just like hyper liquid, all these got liquidated when it was diving below eighty five bucks, and now it's at least back above. It got above eighty seven at one point, so funning rate
continues to be a good signal. Solana's social dominance is also, interestingly at about a two week high or so, not as significant as hypes six month high, but nevertheless, Solana is getting talked about a lot, and its sentiment is pretty neutral. I don't see anything too out of the ordinary right now we go back in time, yeah, I mean, it used to get a lot more buzz here up until February started, and then its sentiment has stayed much
lower ever since then. You'll notice it's still at about three point twenty nine positive comments for every one native comment. That sounds high, but for Solana, which gets dare I say shield so much on a daily basis, it's actually pretty rare for it to get below like a two and a half to one ratio, even though that would be amazing if it was Bitcoin or ethereum.
So it's all relative, yeah for sure. And well, Brian, you know, hopefully the next time we're meeting in two weeks, you know, we are seeing a bigger rally for these assets and yeah, you know, we continue to go higher,
but I like what I'm seeing. What you should it would eat an XRP with the mvrvs and the dumps, the sentiment and the dumps, so that I'm going to try to position myself again now financial advice is what I'm doing, Grab some of those coins to sell the rip once once they start moving up.
Yeah, I think that makes sense.
The big thing that we should continue to watch as bitcoins whales and they aren't painting.
A wonderful picture right now.
I'm not going to say that you should panic over their movement, but we just got to see a little more from them. And as soon as we do, all of these alt coins that you're interested in, for those watching, they're going to have their day. We just have to be patient and I can't wait to see if the beginning of June is that time when we meet again.
Tony absolutely and Brian. Of course, folks can go access these metrics and they can go through a thirty day trial if I'm not mistaken.
Two weeks, yeah, two weeks for free, and then if you decide you like it, enter thinking Crypto as your discount coupon you got twenty five percent off of whatever length of time you want to be a sentiment member with our awesome community.
Awesome so folks. Links will be in the description. Go check it out, play around with the metrics. It's really insightful. As mentioned earlier, I used them on a day to day basis, looking at different factors, social trends and all these things. It's really really great. But Brian, thank you so much and see you in a couple of weeks.
Thanks Tony,