¶ Intro
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home for crypto currency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as well as a thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
¶ September Crypto Market analysis
I want to talk about September. Could we see a major rally given that August it adjusted based on the historical patterns and wasn't that great? And obviously BIGCIN is in a corrective phase right now. But as we were discussing in the previous podcast, Big One is approaching the over soul zone. And what we've seen is when we entered an over soul zone, we have a reversal and usually a rally. So this pattern has played out beautifully here.
So you just look at the RSI and the daily chart, it shows that respective pattern and this applies to other assets as well. In addition, you have the stock market in p five hundred and the NASDAC all in a corrective phase right now. So could we enter September finding the bottom and maybe this second half of September we start rallying into October. Given the catalysts which we've talked about with crypto legislation will be passed and the Senate
come October. You got Global M two right now topping out in late September. You have the China tariffs that are being pushed back by ninety days, which puts US in October, and you have a potential rate cut from the FED happening in September. So we'll have to wait and see. Obviously we don't have a crystal ball, but we're going to look at the data and major milestones or events that are going to take place in September
as well as Q four that could signal the top. Now, as I've been telling you guys, you know, the market has been delayed due to the tariff crash. Everything got pushed back, So this bull market may top out in Q one of twenty twenty six. But right now, I'm going to stick to what the data is showing me that it's going to top out in Q four, maybe
October November. And once again I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't give an exact date, but what we're looking for is the top zone when we are gonna start exiting your market taking profits, and I'll be sharing that with you guys, and I'll be sharing the different data points I'm looking at to validate my thesis. Not feelings or emotions, but what are the different signals we've seen historically playing out again, So folks, it's really a
waiting game to stomach the volatility. And you know, if you look at bitcoin dominance, it is also continuing that down trend. So ETH has been rallying strong. Obviously right now it's correcting, but a lot of all coins have been stealing the liquidity and ETH is starting to outperform Bitcoin even though once again we're in a corrective phase. But overall, based on its movements over the past month, it's been doing really well. Now here's the chart from
Jason Pisino. He's a great analyst, he has a great YouTube channel. He said, for the fourth year in a row, August will be read for bitcoin unless bitcoin pumps seven thousand dollars in an hour. So he posted us right before the weekly close. Obviously bitcoin didn't do that. So each August in this bullmarket has been a turning point for the bulls. Remain patient. So again no invalidation of the bullmarket thesis. Everything is still intact. But we're going
to have pullbacks, We're going to have corrections. That is part for the course. So I love this chart here. It's the data is the facts, and we are seeing a pullback. And again the RSI heading to that over sol zone. It's what we've see in time and time again.
¶ China & US M2 increase
Now here's some more data that supports the bull market. China's M two is breaking out, it's pumping. So just like the USM two, if you go to the Federal Reserves website, you can pull this up. By the way, M two has been on the rise, just going parabolic here and as of July, which is you know, a
month ago, it is continuing to rise. So that's why we see global liquidity and we've been tracking this for the past a year and a half has been one of the indicators we're using because the more money they put in the system, folks, the more assets are going to increase. And we've been in a macro bull market for all assets, crypto stocks, precious metals, real estate, and just yesterday we were talking about goals charted. Goal is starting to break out again. So again I hope you
see what's happening. When you zoom out on the macro and you step away from the hourly, daily, one minute and so forth, you see the thesis is still in play here. So this is really great. Yesterday I highlight a raal pals updated Global Liquidity or Global M two chart which shows again the top coming in around Q four, although right now it's starting to make a reversal, but
it hasn't hit new highs yet. So if this starts making new highs, then you know, we'll update our thesis that, hey, this thing could continue into Q one of twenty twenty six. So I hope you understand why we're saying right now to higher probability is Q four blow off top versus Q one twenty twenty six. But if the data, you know, as it gets update daily and weekly and monthly, shows hey, this thing is starting to rip again, then we'll adjust
our thesis accordingly and plan accordingly as well. Now whales continue to buy on chain data from sentiment shows while it's with ten or more, Bitcoin are on the rise, so they continue to accumulate. Folks, they're buying the dips, and even with Global M two e theorem is following pretty closely, so just like Bitcoin eight is following here.
So guys, things are still on track. I personally believe that we bottom out in the first half of September and then second half we go bonkers, or maybe it happens sooner, right, it doesn't have to be necessarily September fifteenth. Maybe it comes around the eighth or ninth or whatever
it is, and then we start rallying. But key takeaway, get ready September could be big and the start of our rally into October because it doesn't happen in one day or one week, right, this is going to play out over months, and then we hit new highs for bitcoin and all coins and once again we want to look for that top zone or even if it's a local top, if we're going to take profits there. So guys,
September could be really good. Right now, it doesn't feel that way, right because if you look at the markets, it's pretty rough. You look at bitcoy, and you look at ethereum, you look at XRP, everything's down. But again no invalidation, right, So your feelings, your emotions, the media and all the narratives you're going to see from bears are going to be like it's over the top SID but that does not align with the data. And look,
bears are shorting. You know, they won this small battle, but they're not winning the war because we're still in the ball market. Just like they were calling the top being in in the tariff crash, right, just like they were calling the top being in at every rally. That's cool down. This is what they do because they want you to sell, they want you to be in fear, and they short the market. But we're looking at the data. We're not here to look at emotions. We're not operating
by emotions. Guys, September could be really good and I think, you know, we're going to see the bottoming and a reversal to the upside and the start of the parabolic phase in my opinion. Now, folks, quick word from our sponsor, and that is Proppy. Propy is leading the charge with putting real estate on chain. I'm a propytoken holder. I
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¶ Bitcoin being bought faster than mined
we've been talking about with whales accumulating, we got to report here that businesses are absorbing bitcoin four x faster than it's being mined. So there's so much buying from the digital asset treasury, companies, from et apps and much more. It's outpacing the amount of bitcoin that's being mined. So that's really good. You're going to have a supplying demand shock as things progress, and you know, the market heats
up and it gets crazy. So private businesses and public companies are absorbing bitcoin nearly four times faster than the rate at which miners are producing new coins. According to bitcoin financial services company River. These businesses included publicly traded bitcoin treasury companies and conventional or private businesses, which collectively purchase one thousand, seven hundred and fifty five bitcoin per day on average and twenty twenty five according to River.
So again you've got buying on all fronts. So this is really good. It bodes well for the continuation of the market. I often state that these people are not buying at this point of the market if the top was in. They know that there's another leg up where they're going to make a nice return, be able to do the arbitrage, whether they're stock or you know, as
far as et aps. They're putting their clients funds in it and looking to make their clients money of course, So again these are all signals that the top is not in. So this is very very bullish. Now, speaking
¶ Solana Treasury company UK Expansion
of treasury companies, Solana treasury firm, Defied Development Corp. Expands to the UK plans further global launches. So I interviewed the CEO of Defied Development Corp about a couple months ago, and like the bitcoin treasury companies, they're looking to grab as much of the acid as possible do the stock arbitrage, and of course with Solana you have the staking yield and some DeFi opportunities as well. So this is very
interesting that they're expanding globally. So the Boca Raton based firm will become the first US crypto treasure refirm to enter the UK, winning new subsidiary, according to an announcement on Friday dub dfdv UK. The company also claims to be the first Solana focused public treasury vehicle in the UK. The company is being formed by an acquisition of CycL Ai, a firm that was listed on the London Stock Market
under the ticker cyk dot l folks. This is very interesting because we've seen primarily these folks just operating in the US, but therefore they're going to do a global push. This changes the game. It brings in more capital from around the world, and the more capital they raise, the more assets they're going to buy. So if you hold the respective assets that are being bought, like Solana, like eth like bitcoinders, even XRP and others, that's going to
bode well for those assets and their prices. Right, So very bullish and I do want to give the word of caution note that I've been giving for a while. That is, it seems a bubble is forming here. And it's not to say that these guys are doing anything bad, but when you have folks using leverage, and a lot of them are doing, you know, billions of dollars in capital raises again, raising the debt to go buy the asset.
What happens when the bear market comes and not every company is going to be run the same, you know, the same operating standards someone may have. CEOs are not great, or general managers are not that are not great, or whatever it is, right, so you could see some collapses. And when you have this much leverage being piled up again. I'm not calling for a collapse. I'm not called I don't want anybody to have this. But history is on our side here when we talk about the potential collapse
of some of these companies, some not all. So one of the things I've often said is I'm concerned about sailor because it's one thing that takes some cash on your balance sheet, and by the asset, let's say you take twenty to twenty five percent, it's another to go raise billions of dollars put yourself in debt, right, so you're leveraging up yourself and then to go bid the asset that's volatile, and then when the market downturns or there's a you know, some sort of bear market, what
is going to happen. So this is where you got to watch out. This is why we want to take our profits and get the hell out, so we're not here holding the bag when some of these things collapse. And every bear market there's something that collapses, right, and then the narrative flips to cryptos a scam. Right, it's the same cycle. Cool pattern. But again, we as educated investors, we want to be on the side of smart money,
not dumb money. We don't just read headlines. We're looking at the facts, the on chain data, SEC filings, We're looking at facts, where is capital being invested, who's making what moves, what adoption is happening. So that is why we don't listen to Jim Kramer and people on financial news. We're looking at the details, the facts that it's not being shared on the mainstream media, right guys. So let's
see how this plays out. But this is a very interesting move and you can imagine game theory is going to play out here. The other digital ascid treasury companies are going to do the same thing. Now, this is
¶ Dogecoin Treasury Elon Musk
an interesting one. Elon must lawyer to chair doge coin treasury, raising two hundred million dollars per report from Fortune. This is insane. I can't believe somebody's going to do a dogecoin treasury. But if it's attached to Elon, Elon's lawyer, what can I say? Guys? What can I say? You know, I've often stated that I have a love hate relationship with mean coins. I believe in the frame market, so I don't believe in banning anything, but I do believe
in regulating put into guardrails and to protect consumers. I don't believe people should be getting rugged, you know, like pump dot fund is maybe an example that should be heavily regulated. But if you're investing in dogecoin, you know,
I don't have a problem with that. Dose Coin's been around for multiple cycles, has a strong branding community, has developers actually building, and now it doesn't have the best utility as far as you know, It's not solving a major world problem, right, but a lot of people believe in it and a lot of merchants accepted. So it has this strong network effect, it has mass penetration. A lot of people know about it. But should it be a treasury strategy asset. I don't think so. I think
many of you would agree with me. Let me give it a details because this is while elon must personal lawyer Alex Shapiro is listed as a chairman for a dogecoin digital acid treasury company aiming to raise two hundred million dollars, according to a report from Fortune on Friday, which cited anonymous sources. Here's a quote. Investors are receiving pitches for a dogecoin treasury company that will invest in a token. Fortune reported the company plans to raise at
least two hundred million dollars. Report said, adding that when the digital Acid Treasury company would launch is unknown. Now if Elon's lawys involved, I can imagine Elon's gonna pump the hell out of this like he has historically. So maybe this is where he enters the market. He's been very silent about crypto, you know since the bull market started. You know, in the previous bull market, he went on Saturday Night Live. He just put bigcoin in his prof
all kinds of stuff. So if he comes out and he's saying, hey, this is a company that's investing in dogecoin and blah blah blah, and he pumps it, watch out, that's one of those top signals. Right, So this is interesting. Nevertheless, and I don't know how I feel about this being a digital acid treasury company. And it goes back to my thoughts that I just said, a bubble is forming, right, So again you want look, some of you may be financially in a place where you don't need to take profits,
that's why, you know, God blessed. But those of you who are looking to take profits to pay off debt or buy a house or whatever, Right, this is where we're gonna want to have a plan and identified that top zone and start taking profits because we don't want to be in that bear market. Guys, I think you
see your gut. You know, your reason would tell you here, logic would tell you there is a bubble forming here when you have news like this, guys, right, very very risky people are getting more risky, and usually that happens as we head towards the top. Now, you know, we
¶ Japan Yen Deposit Token
often talk about the token economy and across the globe. You're going to have governments and businesses and much more launch tokens and everything will be running on blockchains. I've often said, the government, the economies, and the markets will all run on blockchain. Look at this japan Post Bank eyes twenty twenty six rollout of the dcjpy deposit token
for asset settlement. So to all the people who are saying this is all a scam, blockchain is fake blockchains like the fax machine or whatever, right whatever flood they put out here, the biggest institutions on Wall Street, the central banks, many governments are all embracing this building with it, regulating it. So Japan's post bank plans to let customers convert savings into tokenized deposits on a permission blockchain as
early as the fiscal year twenty twenty six. The NK reported the bank will use the dcjpy token and network from Japanese firm the current or decurrent DCP, which was announced in August twenty twenty four. Japan's post banks one hundred and twenty million accounts holding one point twenty nine trillion in deposits, and that's one point two nine trillion dollars. By the way, we'll be able to use the token for easier tokenized security settlement. Guys, you see the direction
to puck is heading in. Right. This is not making the major headlines on Fox, CNN, MSNBC wherever New York Times. But this is why we are researching. We're educating ourselves to be up to date with what's happening here, because you're not going to hear. Oh, the Bank of Japan is doing all these things, and here's they're going to use a private blockchain. And again, see where the puck
is heading in. This is why I am bullish, not just on this bull market, but the next bull market, which I hope you're going to come on the ride with me, to buy the bloody bear market, to buy the blood in the street when everybody's fearful, and then prepare for the next euphoric red zone. Rinse and repeat, and get as much money out of this market as possible because eventually the volatility the returns won't be there
due to more liquidity, more adoption. You're not gonna have the same level of returns, right, guys, You're gonna have that depreciating returns there not to say, you won't make money, but you know you won't have the same upside, you know, making three hundred to four hundred to one thousand percent on some of these coins. Right, it's not gonna be there forever, so let's move ahead. El Salvador splits bitcoin
¶ El Salvador Bitcoin
holdings between fourteen addresses to enhance security against quantum threats. So this is interesting. So analysts have said the quantum community threat to bitcoin remains years away. The office claims to buy one bitcoin each day through the country. These top finance ministers told the IMF in July that the government has not bought bigquin since February of this year, so they've been buying in the bear markets. So I
don't expect them to continue to buy. And they have to be fiscally smart here, right and responsible not to be buying at the top or you know, at these high prices, because let's be honest, we're headed to that top zone and that's not a place to be buying unless you have some sort of arbitrage set up. But they don't. They're just buying and hoddling, right, But their holdings are up significantly, and it's interesting that they are doing this and we'll see what quantum threats are going
to do to the crypto market. I do believe quantum comes along and it's a threat. Crypto is the last thing we need to worry about because the traditional system you can imagine, right, is going to be in trouble, the banking system, the credit card system, and so forth. And I do believe that a lot of like for Examp, bitcoin miners are going to upgrade their miners to use quantum tech. Same thing with other blockchains, right, So it will be these these innovations are going to happen in parallels.
I don't think it's that big of a threat, but it's good to be prepared. So I think this is a smart move on their part. Folks. That's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button, folks. A great way you can support me by subscribing to my free email newsletter. It is one hundred percent free. Link will being a description. Check out my book on Amazon. It is available in paperback and digital. Also check out my
course at Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything about cryptos. To check it out. All the links will be in a description. Folks, thank you so much for watching and listening. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you all later
