¶ Intro
Because it's kind of just business as usual. The trend is basically just to and continued accumulation long term. I will note that they've dumped roughly thirty thousand bitcoin in the last two ish weeks from June third until the latest closed yesterday.
Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. Joining me is Brian from Sentiment, and as you know, we're going to do a deep dive into the metrics, the sentiment and much more around bitcoin and all the all coins.
Brian, great to see.
You, Good to see you, Tony. Up and down week. Sentiments kind of starting to drift into parish slash a little impatience, which is exactly what a lot of bulls want to see, right. We want to see that the retail crowd is starting to shift into impatient kind of mode and that tends to be when good things start to happen.
Yeah, it's so funny, right, It's the contrarian signal that the majority of people may say, oh man, this market's not doing anything. I'm tired, i'm giving up, i'm walking away, I'm selling it's over. But then the bulls and the folks who are you know, doing the opposite of what's happening out there. They are looking at this like, you know, the opportune moment to see all of this happening.
I was talking with the data team a little this morning, and we're seeing an increase in specific calls related to target prices to buy back in. So the trend right now is a lot of people sitting on the sidelines, maybe getting more into stocks or something else that even gold, something moving a little more than crypto has lately, and waiting for you know, one hundred k, waiting for ninety k, even lower than that. You know, we're seeing all sorts
of target prices to buy back in. Even though I did the calculation this morning, we're just six point two percent off of the all time high, and people are acting all of a sudden like you know, what have you done for me lately? Getting into that mindset like, oh, the all time high was already a full month ago now, So we are dealing with a bit of a spoiled kind of bunch lately, and for good reason. It's been
such a good couple of years for crypto. So this is generally a good scenario where you're seeing people saying, oh, I still am bullish long term, but bear is short term because I just think the bitcoin is going to go to this based on the seventeen lines I drew on trading do.
Yeah, And it's funny. I also get comments of you know, people who are not allocated to bitcoin. They're like, where's the bullmarket. I'm like, the bullmarket is starting January twenty twenty three. And because you were misallocated, you didn't have some bitcoin your portfolio. You missed a lot of the gains.
And I keep trying to tell people that, don't be max less Randy token and you know, diversify wholesome bitcoin, and yes, you can have your all coins, but Bitcoin is you know, has the higher probability of seeing those games, while certain all coins may not.
Exactly. Yeah, some people fall in love with whatever coin made them the most money the last bull cycle, right, and they're just they feel like there's an allegiance to them. And to an extent, that's okay. You might believe in the long term viability of a certain asset, but if you don't diversify, you can miss out on quite a few individual runs just based on the cyclical nature of crypto.
Absolutely all right, Brian. He shows the charts that you're
¶ Bitcoin Analysis
looking at. We could start with bitcoin. Maybe we look at sentiment.
You bet, let's start there. I pulled up this handy dandy sentiment chart that just looks at the daily ratio of all the bullish versus negative comments over the past three months here, and generally higher we go, the more likely we're getting close to a top. If we get super low, we're getting close to bottom. So naturally this was a great signal to buy right after Trump announced the tariffs, and people were running around like chickens with their heads cut off, assuming that we were gonna just
absolutely fall off a cliff. Of course, after a medium sized retrace ended up being the perfect time to buy. And I know a ton of people are kicking themselves after you know, this bearish bar right here happened. And then we went on a about a forty six percent run en route to that new all time high in May. So since that time, we saw, of course that huge
bullish spike here. What a coincidence. This is where price is top out and we start to go down, and then we actually got pretty bearish just about four days ago. We're shooting this on the nineteenth. This was on the fifteenth, and we ended up going on a little mini rally back above one OA. Then people got a little bit bullish again and we fell back down. Now we're kind of sitting a little in the middle, arguably just slightly bearish. We have some other signals here that show more clearly
how barish people are getting. But just in terms of all the overall bullish versus bearish comments that our algorithm is picking up, it doesn't look like people are showing a lot of patients right now. It's a growing amount of frustration if we just look at the overall trend, you know, since mid May or so on these gold lines.
Yeah, and you know when I look at the bitcoin chart on Trading View and I look at like the rs I, I think sometimes people don't realize the market becomes overheated and they wanted to keep going right, it must keep going up, must keep go like like it has to go up in a straight line. But mars markets are cyclical, and you know this cool down. If you look at the rs I and the bitcoin chart, it's it looks healthy because it was overbought and then now it's going to the oversouled exactly.
Yeah, we've got RSI. Actually I rarely use it because it's already so available elsewhere, but I can tell you that on the RSI, you know, we did fall back below fifty. Let me just get rid of this extra line here. So just looking at the RSI first, here's the midway point. I know people who really value RSI and use it a lot more than I do. But from what I've seen in my analysis, this was the point in which we fell back below that midway point and went into slightly bullish range here, not by much.
Forty seven is pretty even, but you can see how rare it's been over the last two and a half months or so for us to actually be below the fifty mine for RSI.
Yeah, and I expect, you know, I often tell people, look, if we're overbought, you got to anticipate the market's going to go to the opposite way when we become oversold and sellers, you know, become exhausted, and you know the market's going to go the other way. And of course the sentiment of follows that which we were talking about. The retail heard right, they get very excited when you know we're heated up. Everybody's buying, and so forth.
But it's always that lagging emotional reaction after the fact, right, People are way more bullish after a bitcoin goes up to one twelve as opposed to being bullish back when it's in the low hundred k's or in the ninety ks. So it's just the nature of the beast. It's always a what have you done for me lately kind of mindset, And this is why the majority of retailers lose money because they refuse to buy in when everyone else on their timeline is spewing the bearish narrative, and they refuse
to sell when everyone is spewing the bullish narrative. But yeah, absolutely, yeah, And I wanted to on a related note to RSI, this is kind of like the cousin of RSI is MVRV. And here we see that the average returns when you take all the addresses that have interacted on the bitcoin network in the past thirty days, the average returns are at about negative two percent. So that actually is a slightly encouraging sign that we could see a bit of a rebound. What we didn't want to do is buy in.
I mean, there were times across mid April to mid May where it actually would have worked out as you bought in while others were already in profit. But generally you want to I love using these emojis when I can. Don't buy when you're seeing the MVRV way up here, especially like above, I'd say ten percent or so, So avoid that zone when you get way up here, and then you want to send the rocket ships when we're way down below, you know, roughly negative five, negative ten,
ten percent like we saw. Really the only opportunity we saw was back when the tariffs were first announced. But it's at least in negative territory now, which is good.
Yeah.
And you know, I find this data is so valuable because it's what the smart money uses.
They don't they're not welcome by their emotions.
Oh the price is up, I feel happy today, or the price is down, I feel sad. But what is the data telling us? And you know this is so much in alignment with how the market moves and of course a contrarian to the retail sentiment.
It's it's so fascinating.
Yeah. And one final thing to say on that, you know ninety eight percent or so of your viewers are well aware of the concept of buying low and selling high. But if we go back, you know, ten years, right, let's just look at twenty fifteen to twenty twenty five and we'll just look at price by itself. So if you look at this chart, you tell me what the low and the high is, right, It's impossible when you
look at different timeframes. And what MVRV does is it allows you to understand what the high versus low is relative to the average traders that you're competing with. It may look like you're all on the same team because the timeline is going like we're all going to the moon, but the reality is crypto is zero sum game, and you don't want to be buying in when everyone else is already profited plus fifty percent like they did in
late November twenty seventeen. And you you do want to get in when people are in massive pain like they were in May twenty twenty one, or you know, the crash in twenty twenty two after the FTX debacle, stuff like that. It's there's no better way to know what a low versus a high is than looking at MVRV in my opinion, and RSI to an extent helps, So yeah, I'm glad you mentioned what you did.
Yeah, for sure. So speaking of smart money, what are
¶ Bitcoin whale activity
the Whales doing? Are they continuing to accumulate?
Yeah, And we don't need to even spend a ton of time on it because it's kind of just business as usual. The trend is basically just to and continued accumulation long term. I will note that they've dumped roughly thirty thousand bitcoin in the last two ish weeks from June third until the latest close yesterday, but it's not
a giant dump by any means. It's kind of just a minor one that I would need to see way more before I'm concerned that Bitcoin's about to fall off the cliff due to lack of smart money support.
And if you look at the chart, there was a huge spike, So it looks like it could be like the Whales who are playing the short term game, and then of course they're their long term one, the ones that view it from a long term that are slowly steadily accumulating. But that spike, I mean, it seems like a natural decline off that huge spike.
You're referring to this June third one right here that I'm highlighting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean between this one week between late May or early June, they added about one hundred k bitcoin. That was massive, And part of the reason they kept accumulating is because prices were actually slowly sliding down a bit, giving them more and more justification to accumulate more as retailers. We're panicking here, and
then naturally as we rebounded, that's when they offloaded. So they they kind of made a short term play here. It looks like where they just simply accumulated for a week while it was going down and then dumped for a week while it was going up. And now it's
kind of just when you see prices range. That's actually some of the best timing for actually understanding what the smart money's real mindset is, because there's they're not just accumulating because prices are going down or dumping because the prices are going up. They're watching prices kind of stay in this one oh three to one oh six k range and they're slowly adding more. Meaning it's pretty indisputable that they're quite bullish for the mid and long term timeframes.
Yeah. Absolutely.
And on that note, how are ETF inflow is looking.
¶ Bitcoin ETF inflows
I saw folks on Bloomberg and so where they were highlighting they have been a good amount of inflows.
Yeah, this is looking really good. This is even though it's saying June seventeenth on my screen. It's a time zone thing, so this was actually the close of yesterday.
We've now seen seven straight days. Today is actually an off day for global stock markets due to June teenth, but seven straight days prior to today has been nothing but inflows, not a single outflow day since going back to June sixth, So it's actually a very encouraging sign that inflows keep on coming despite price's sliding mildly over the last what forest which actually full week or so?
Really hmmm? Interesting?
Now if we could talk stable coins, tether supply, and then of course I want to get your thoughts on mentions of stable coin because we had the Genius Act
¶ Tether & Stablecoins
passing this Senate, so I'm curious what people are saying. Are they bullishit about that news and things like that.
Yeah, so for starters, we can just look at the overall mentions of stable coins. The redline year is social dominance, So this is like the actual percentage of discussions related to the word stable coin, USDT or USDC. I might as well, add stable coin or stable coins so you can get the full picture. Yeah, it's about the same. So you can see the social dominance really hit its peak about a month from today, month ago, and it's
back up there now. So it's we're over two percent of all discussions in crypto being really related to stable coins and USDT and USDC. So people are clearly talking about it a lot. But if we get a little more crafty here, I can say, let's put all those words together, stable coins and the word bullish, and we'll see what happens here. Yeah, so you see this big spike on June seventeenth, just a couple of days ago. Definitely, people are are happy about this overall result and believe
it's good for crypto. That's what I would take away from this.
Interesting.
And then as far as tether supply and how that's been performing, curious what you're seeing on that front.
Yeah, let's check out. We'll just do a quick look at both teather and usd coin to see how the supplant exchanges are looking well overall, as well as the ratio of all tether. So there's about thirty three and a half billion dollars worth of Tether on exchanges right now,
it's dropped pretty dramatically. Going back to early February, about four and a half months of time elapsing has led to ten point five to seven billion dollars less of tether on exchanges and about fourteen percent of all tether less on exchanges right now. So the dry powder that's available has declined pretty dramatically for crypto's top stable coin.
Yeah, and one of the metrics I usually share with my listeners and hearers is tether dominance. And obviously in the past month or so we saw decline, not a full on drop like we saw in Q four of last year and even Q one Q two of twenty twenty four, but it's getting so I'm curious to see how this plays out.
Could this be the last leg.
Of the bull market As we head into July, Bitcoin maybe goes to one hundred thirty five to one hundred and forty k all coins do their final move, or you know, maybe the supply starts to reverse. More usdts minted as wills come back in.
Yeah, that's interesting. So just to clarify, are you referring to Tether's market cap versus the rest of crypto's market cap. Oh, so.
It's a tether dominance metric on Trading View, so kind of like Bitcoin dominance where it shows.
I think that's market cap. I'm pretty sure that's what Trading View refers to if they're Yeah, if they're talking about bitcoin dominance, at least we know it's about price or or overall market caps, share share bitcoin has versus everything else, so tether probably is the same thing.
Yeah.
So I was just checking USDC. By the way, market caps pretty flat and supply and exchange this is actually going up up. But now let's look at Tether's market cap overall, and it's been huge. Yeah, it's a it's a massive rise in market cap, which you don't often see because Tether's price is always going to be pegged at a dollar, but its market cap is still always doing its own thing. And yeah, there's about nearly eleven eleven billion dollars more market cap over the past two months.
Hm hmm.
Interesting, that's a pretty huge rise. Thanks for pointing that out.
Yeah, I mean it could be like if everything goes according to plan, and what we see in historically with the four year cycles, this, you know, is the blow off top here, So I would expect to see the stable coin supply increased significantly, specifically around tether, and then of course that will move into the crypto market. Then it you know, it will cool down as as as the prices go up, but then there willation back into it as people take profits.
Yeah, that's interesting. I'm just curious because the minting process for tea there's always a bit of a mystery. I'm sure some people know it pretty well, but if we look at the supply outside of exchanges, yeah, it's pretty much inverse. So this is it looks like it's a pretty direct correlation of coins moving out of exchanges and
going into cold wallets. I was just curious if there's just like a maybe the ratio is going down because there's a big boost and minted tether going into cold wallets and stuff, which does happen, but it's pretty it doesn't look like there's much variation. They're pretty much mirror images of each other, right now.
Yeah for sure. All right, let's talk to some all coins.
¶ Ethereum analysis
We could start with eight since that's been looking good lately, and there's been some pretty positive news as well with companies adopting and eth corporate Treasury strategy.
Mm hmm, Yeah, I wanted to start here. I put this out just about an hour ago. It's just a nice look at network growth over time. So for those kind of doubting Ethereum, now that it's kind of petered out at around twenty five hundred and that big rally from late May has temporarily come to a stop, we look at network growth, which is just the overall amount
of new addresses being created. Each of these yellow bars represents one week over the past year, and there was about five hundred and sixty thousand, six hundred and seventy thousand new wallets being created per week last summer around this time. Now we're up at anywhere between eight hundred k to a million, and the long term trend is pretty clear. This is the healthiest we've ever seen Ethereum's
ecosystem look in terms of just overall growth. So I am very encouraged by what Ethereum is doing underneath the hood. Right now as people obsess over price, you know, the long term sustainability is looking stronger than ever.
Yeah.
I'm bullish on eth not just because I'm a token holder, just I see a lot of adoption, and there's so many layer twos and so many people building on it, and I think of similar to what happened with XRP.
People, Okay, it's a dead coin.
Nothing's going to happen. Yet it's still in the top ten, right, top five is having what's having that similar moment? Everybody, Oh, it's dead, it's not doing anything. Solana is the better coined and all of a sudden it starts melting faces. And I think as the SEC approves staking in eth ETFs.
Is going to drive a lot of demand.
I would agree, Yeah, I mean you can if you can start to steak from an ETF perspective, that's one of the only things that I think was holding it back was the risk and holding it on chain and ETFs would solve that problem. And if you can start to steak on top of that, I mean, get ready to open the floodgates. In terms of interested parties. Can we look at the MBRV for pre Yeah. By the way, funding rate is pretty neutral too. I've been keeping an eye on that to see if shorts start to pop up,
sincet negative sentiments starting to creep in. But in terms of MVRV, which is right here looking pretty good. So they're both in negative range right now, implying that adding on or buying a position is less risky than usual at this time. Thirty day mvrvs it about negative three point nine percent, three sixty five days about negative six point seven percent. So as long as you got both
of these in negative range. As you can see, the last time we had that happen was late April, and yeah, that turned out to be a pretty nice formula for price rises right after that happened. So we're not as extreme in the negative range as we saw when you know, people were freaked out about the tariffs. But the fact that there we've been in this negative range for short and long term traders is a solid sign.
Yeah, for sure.
¶ XRP analysis
Let's look at XRP, and that has had a lot of big news as well recently. Also, companies looking to do treasury use it as a treasury reserve asset.
Yeah, and by the way, the price has really taken a beating. It's not really a reflection of xrps overall viability, but it's down seventeen and a half percent over the last five weeks or so, so there could be an opportunity to buy the dip with some of this positive news coming out, I'm seeing plenty of big spikes in terms of active addresses like we saw last week, circulation
spikes in early June. So on chain wise, the network looks plenty healthy MVRV wise, you know, because of xrp's huge performance at the end of twenty twenty four, there's still a lot of average profiting going on long term, but at least on the short term basis, you know, they're thirty day traders are down about three percent now, giving an argument that buying in for the short term makes a lot of sense. Now funding rate is super
neutral at the moment. It would be great if people start to doubt XRP, because that would imply those liquidations can really shoot up prices with some rocket fuel. But yeah, I don't see anything signaling bearishness here. I see a lot more positive signs than negative, even dormant tokens. That's what this line represents. So when it's going down rather than up, it's implying that a lot of stagnant coins
are moving back into circulation. Especially right here. This big bar means there was just a massive amount of XRP that moved away from an older wallet that had just been sitting and hotling a bunch of coins, and they moved it back in their circulation, and right afterwards we see that big jump. So we look for slopes in that Whoops, didn't need to click on that. We look for slopes in this yellow line here because it implies that the network is younger in terms of the average
coins being held in each specific wallet. So I like the look of XRP.
Interesting.
Yeah, and it feels like, you know, going back to what we were talking about with the cyclical move of the market with RSI and MBRV for bitcoin, and you know, a bitcoin leads to the market if Bitcoin was the bottom in the coming weeks or so, and then start moving, I think we will know that. We know these all coins generally follow, so we could see a nice bounce for e the XRP and some of the others. Mm hm agree. How about Solana, what do you think on
¶ Solana analysis
that front?
So Solana, we just have social data as well as some transaction volume data. Now we've been actively working on getting the blockchain data onto Santiment's network, so we're actually super excited to finally have transaction volume you can actually see the turning point when there was a huge transaction volume spike followed by a drop down. These big spikes often signal a turning point, as you can see even
here in late April, we're going way up. We see this spike, start to go down, we start to go down. We see the spike and we begin to rebound. We go up here, biggest spike of the year, and we start to go down. So that's interesting to see on Solana side, which has actually slid about twenty two percent in the last five weeks. If we look at the sentiment and funding rate, by the way, is looking neutral, but if we look at social dominance, it's not getting
talked about much right now. It's actually quite quite low. This is just the percentage of discussions related to Solana versus other cryptocurrencies, and it's kind of at its base of a little over three percent now. When there are moments where it's above ten percent, and that's when people are really really getting behind Solana, or at least it's becoming polarizing, which is generally good for the asset. And if we just look at the bullish versus bearish sentiment, yeah,
it's it's come down quite a bit. There's still about four bullish comments for every one bearish comment. Yeah, it's it kind of just looks like Solana is being glossed over right now as people are distracted by others.
Interesting.
I wonder if some of the I'm should I put it, the bullishness has calmed down obviously in general because the market is cool then, right, But also the meme coin movement has kind of digged down in a way.
Don't get me wrong.
There's still meme coins out there, some that may be performing okay, but there's not that that retail excitement, you know, going after these new meme coins and much more.
Yeah, great point, Tony. I do think that Solana is one of those ecosystems that's strongly tied to meme coin performance. And if the more speculator speculator wow, speculative driven assets start to dry up, Solana itself gets a bit of a hit. And you can see just in the last week it's kind of a sea of red. There's always a few, you know, exceptions out there, but I'd say, what ninety to ninety five percent of the assets we're looking at here are bleeding quite a bit.
Yeah, and even though there's been like some news around Solana Corporate Treasury, I know the ETF, the SPOTTYTF is making some level of progress with the SEC asking for comments and much more, it hasn't gotten much traction and that could be, you know, going back to the meme coin situation, because a lot of what maybe caught people's attention around Salona over the past year has been the meme coins versus other things.
Completely agree interesting.
Good stuff, Brian, And as always, you know, if we're meeting in the next two weeks, I think there's crossed that. You know, we're finding a bounce, Bitcoin is bottom of bouncing, and then the alts fallow and you know what we can be charted looking at different data.
Yeah, I think July is going to be a big month, not necessarily bullish or bearish, but it'll be big in terms of news because we've got, of course, the conflict between Israel and Iran heating up and that's impacting markets. But even bigger than that, in my opinion, not in terms of real world importance but in terms of crypto markets, would be the Terriff situation because we've had this ninety day China and US tariffs, and that's going to kind of reach its head in mid to late July, if
I'm not mistaken. And then the EU and the US also have a pause. So everything's been kind of kicked down the road, and come about thirty to forty five days from now, it's it's all gonna start. We're gonna find out how real these negotiations have been.
Yeah, that's a good point. I forgot about that. They just paused it and pushed it out. Maybe the Trump does that again and that allows markets to feel bullish, get similar to what you know, what we saw with the v shape recovery for the stock market and everything, and that sends us higher.
But we'll have to wait and see.
Absolutely, thanks for having me as always, Tony
Yeah, absolutely, Thanks Brian,