¶ Intro
Hey everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as well as a thumbs up button and leave a common blow. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
¶ Bitcoin and crypto analysis
Happy new Year. I hope you're all doing well. I'm wishing you all a happy, healthy and prosperous twenty twenty six and hopefully the markets deliver for us. And I want to kick it off by looking at some bitcoin charts and what some analysts are saying, because we're getting different information from different folks, and of course we want to look at multiple point of views, not just one, right, we want to make sure that we're covering all our bases.
So first up, I want to share what Credible Crypto said on x He says one month later and nothing has really changed as expected. We are simply chopping around at these levels with zero breaks in the high timeframe market structure. Despite many already claiming our cycle top is in seventy four K remains unbroken and there are a number of indications that we are forming a bottom here. So of course we've been seeing that different signals like the RSI, mac d's and so forth type signal we
are at the bottom. But you know, one of the things I've been saying is that don't be surprised if we see another flush and we go down to maybe retest some loads, maybe we go retest seventy nine K or eighty k, right, just be mentally prepared for that. It's not guaranteed that it's going to happen, but markets can do these things, and we just want to be mentally prepared so we're not surprised, we're not caught flat footed. And as Credible Crypto is saying here, seventy K is
that key support level. If we break the low there and we go low, then yes, the thesis is invalidated. So until that breaks, we are still remaining bullish, whether it's a move to a relief rally or a dead cat bounce or a new all time high. So that's the big quest rush for many and we're gonna wait to see. So here's what some other folks are saying. Here's the headline. Bitcoin RSI demands breakout as exec says
our Ip to the four year bitcoin price cycle. So of course we've been talking about the price cycle being broken because this time is different. For the first time ever after the having year, we closed the year on a red or in the red, so the yearly candle was red instead of green. Usually it's three green followed by one red, which is the bear market. Now it's only been two green followed by a red, which was twenty twenty five. So this time is different, and it's
been different since the beginning of the bull market. If you recall the bitcoin having the price hitting new all time high before the having and that was because of the Bitcoin ETF launch. So since then it's been different. You can't argue with that because we've seen historically those things have not happened, but they have happened this cycle. So this is where some people who are calling the top, you know, they have to take these things into consideration.
You can't ignore them, right, So this is why I'm sharing with you, and we're looking at which scenario has the highest probability of playing out. Okay, So Bitcoin open the year twenty twenty six at eighty seven five hundred dollars as markets geared up for the year's first Wall Street trading session. The key points Bitcoin lies in wait at eighty seven thousand, five hundred for the start of trent fied trading on global markets. RSI and Ballinger bands
signals imply major bitcoin price volatility is due. Market participants say goodbye to the four year price cycle theory. So again, highlighting the RSI even the Ballinger band signal, highlighting a reversal is due right now. Timing is of course hard because the market could chop for another two weeks, right. This is just the nature of markets. And I'm not saying that to be bears or to feel make you
feel depressed. Just the reality. Let's look at the data and let's accept reality of what's happening and follow the day. So I think people on different fronts, using different signals are recognizing things are due for a reversal. And you know, yesterday I shared the bitcoin mvr V from multiple levels three the yearly, the two year, even the monthly, and they're all in the loss right now. So again, I think a reversal is coming soon. Now here's some very
¶ Tether Bo Hines Bitcoin Bullish
interesting statements from Bohines. Many of you may recall I interviewed bow Hines when he was working at the White House under David Sachs as one of the crypto advisors. Well, he now works for Tether right, he's going to be leading the Tether US stable coin USD stable coin, which is us base. He tweeted out yesterday, Guys, anyone bearish
on bitcoin heading into twenty twenty six is foolish. Now this came from someone else, some random guy, I wouldn't care, but it's coming from someone very credible, someone who has close ties to the Trump administration. Obviously he's working at Teather right, So I have to put some value in this,
and I think this is a big statement here. A lot of different folks are saying, you know, this year is going to be big for crypto, and that could be along the thesis of what we've been talking about, one final leg for the stock market and crypto blow off top then we actually roll into the bear market. So let's see. Let's see. This is a big statement come from Bo and I hope to have him back on the podcast soon as Teather launches their USD stable coin.
And speaking of Tether, they bought in Q four twenty twenty five, eight and eighty eight bitcoin worth seven hundred and seventy nine million dollars. So I pose the question that I've been posing, you know, highlighting the news of digital acid treasury companies and these different firms buying crypto. Why the hell would they be buying if the price is on its way down as some people are saying, it's a bear market, it's on its way down, a
downward slope, right, why would they here? It doesn't make sense? And in addition, why are we seeing crypto companies looking to go public in twenty twenty six? Again the prices are about to go down. People are depressed, right, There's a lot of fear in the market. No one wants to touch anything or invest anything. So why are these companies and non crypto companies as well tech companies, AI companies and so we're looking to go public? I pose the question for you to think about it. Look at
¶ XRP ETF outlook
this XRP ETFs have pulled in one billion dollars plus in just fifty days, locking seven hundred and forty six million XRP one point one four percent of the circulan supply, with only one zero inflow day since launch. At the current twenty seven point seven million dollars per day pace.
ETF assets could hit five billion dollars by mid May twenty twenty six, potentially locking two point six billion XRP four percent of the supply, as the exchange balances are all ready down fifty eight percent and twenty twenty five. So one of the things I've been highlighting recently is that if you have coins leaving the exchanges, people are buying,
that's very positive. Is less cell pressure? Right when whales are moving the coins back on, that's when you get to worry because they're looking to exit the distribute, right, So very good sign here for XRP, and the accumulation and the ETFs continue, and then you know, as far as the XRP chart still looks good, nothing necessarily bearersh here. Yes, there could be some more downward pressure, but still holding
key support levels. And you know, it looks like it's set up for that one more move to the blow off top right in my opinion, And I could be wrong. I could be wrong. You know, I have no problem in saying I'm wrong. What I want to know is what is the data, Not the emotions, not the fairy tales, not the stories, Just what is the data showing us and not just charts, but the macro and on chain as well. You have to look at all of those things. There are some people who are chart only and I
don't believe in that because markets move by liquidity. If there's no liquidity, markets don't do anything right. But on top of liquidity is sentiment. Right, So you may have tons of liquidity in the market, but it's a cyclical patterns. Market don't go up forever, markets don't go down forever, right, and sentiment drives a lot of that. So this is where I've learned throughout the year, is how to navigate the markets and make money. Obviously, this time around is
a bit rough. We've been throwing some curveballs. Obviously twenty twenty five very different. But you know, there's a saying time in the markets is better than trying to time the markets. Okay, folks, This episode is brought to you by v chain, which is one of the top layer one enterprise blockchains out there. Folks. V chain is getting tons of adoption from big brands and companies across the globe who are building Web three and decentralized applications on
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Dana White in twenty twenty five said he bought a million dollars of the VET token, and they're working with big firms like Walmart, like your PwC, Boston Consulting Group BMW, and much more. So I'm a big fan of v chain, a big believer in this project. And you know, some of the key features of the v chain blockchain includes it's scalable, secureable, fast, and compliant. So if you'd like to learn more about v chain, go to vchain dot org. Link would be in the description. Okay, folks, look at
¶ Turkmenistan Crypto
this crypto dash from continues. Turkmenistan rings in the new year with crypto exchanges and miners. So it looks like they gave some approvals here. So crypto mining and trading is now legal in Turkmenistan after a new law signed by President Siddar oh My Gosh. I can't pronounce his last name. I'm not going to try. In late November,
took effect on Thursday. Implementation of the new laws could see these Central Asian countries' economy expand beyond its heavy reliance on natural gas exports by tapping surplus energy for crypto mining, following the lead of neighboring country Kazakhstan. A couple of things here. See the game theory that's playing out. One country moves in that region, the others follow right. Second,
what have I been saying? Any country that bans crypto is signing its economic death sentence because this technology will be a big contributor to economic growth and how the new financial system will be running. I've said it at nauseum. The future governments, markets and economies will all be running on blockchain rails. That is what's being built here. That's why you're seeing sometimes these countries which we've never even
heard of, or it's not top of mine at all. Right, I can't remember the last time I've heard anything about Turkmenistan. I'm not saying anything bad or negative, just it's, you know, somebody, smaller countries, you don't hear much about them. But all of a sudden, Hey, we're implementing crypto, We're embracing the technology. We're going to use excess energy to mind crypto. This
is just incredible, incredible stuff. So, Turkmenistan is considered to be one of the more closed off countries in the world, but has taken several steps to open up its economy in recent years, including to tourism and energy sectors. See what I mean, guys, countries that have been closed off, you know, you don't hear much about them, all of a sudden opening up to crypto. This, this is really incredible. Okay,
¶ Bitwise new altcoin ETFs
look at this news. Bit Wise files for eleven strategy ETFs tracking tokens including ave z cash and how so bit Wise, well, I should say I often have Matt Hogan from Bitwise on the podcast. I probably had him on the podcast like twenty times over the years. They're a great company. They've issued some great financial products. Even before the ETF approvals, they've been launching a lot of
crypto products, and now they're of course doing ETFs. So the ETFs will invest up to sixty percent in the underlying token, with the rest in exchange traded products and derivatives. And you know they're not the only one. Gray Scale and a bunch of the other issuers have been filing for these different ets folks. They're going down there all coinless, so pretty cool. And of course these ETFs are a great on ram so bringing more capital into the ecosystem.
And the other tokens that are mentioned in the filing includes hype near tron Athena Stark, and canton Coin. Many of you know I recently added that to my portfolio. I've been telling y'all watch that coin, right, It's actually been performing really well after the DTCC announced they're going to be building on the Canton network, So be sure to check them out, folks. And that's not financial advice, right,
do your research. Not because I'm investing in something means you have to go invest Don't do anything like that blindly. Don't cult follow me, right, I hope you guys appreciate it. I don't want you to cult follow me. And I'm not here to try to pump certain coins or whatever like that. I invest, I buy the lows, I look for opportunities. I did that with AI tokens at the
beginning of twenty twenty three with fetch and render. And now I recognize Canton network as a great privacy token that's new, built by big institutions, backed by Goldman, Sachs, Citadel and much more so. And I interviewed, you know, the founder and CEO of Digital Assets, which is working on the Canton network, and I was like, wait a minute, I see something here that's going to be big. So that's why I invested in a token. And of course the big news we got recently to DTCC. All right, folks,
here's the next news item. Vitalic booter In on the
¶ Vitalik Buterin Ethereum
two goals Etherorem must meet to become the world computer. So we want to pay attention to what's happening with Etherorem because we need Etherorem to perform. The rest of the all coin market moves with Etherorem. I don't make the rules, this is just how we've seen things move
in the past. A lot of tokens are actually ERC twenty built on the etherreum blockchain, so we want to look at upgrades that will benefit the Etherorem ecosystem, bring in more liquidity, and this will be beneficial for the all coins. So Metallic Booterin says Ethereum made significant technical progress in twenty twenty five, but still falls short of its broader mission. He pushes back against short term crypto
narratives in favor of durable, censorship resistant applications. The message reframes Ethereum as long term Internet infrastructure rather than a platform chasing market trends. Now, what we've seen is that etherorem usually is the first smart contract blockchain. A lot of TRAAD five builders launch their tokenized funds and much more on and then they go to other chains. We know it's going to be a multichain world, right, but
eth has a strong reputation, great security. Obviously, its speed and fees are still a challenge, but many institutions don't really mind that. If this security is top of the level, and then they also look at you know, Layer twos, they go build on Layer twos on top of Etherorem, or they launch their own Layer two. So a lot of upgrades are slated. I believe like two for twenty twenty six free theorem. So let's see how that plays out, and I think it will continue to get more adoption. Okay,
final news item. The trust wallet browser extension knocked offline
¶ Trust Wallet Google Chrome =================================================
by Chrome store bugs CEO says, so recently, the trust wallet has had an exploit and they did make it right by making sure they're going to help victims with
these seven million dollar Christmas hacks reimbursement. So though it looks like it's been kicked out of the Chrome Google Chrome web stores or is temporary unavailable, so just heads up, I would avoid using this the wallet obviously, if you got hacked, I'm sorry, but at least you're you know you're gonna be made whole with the funds they're going to restore. But if you're a new user, yeah, I
would stay away from now. Stay away from now. Just be careful, right as always, don't trust verifies, guys, because we need to make sure this is not an ongoing issue. And I'm not saying it trust Wallet is bad or it is an ongoing issue, but just we want to be smart here. We don't want to lose our funds, right folks. All right, guys, that's the news. Let me know what to think. Be sure to sign up for my free email newsletter. I'll be putting out a write
up tomorrow. Once again, one hundred percent free on substack. We have over seven two hundred followers and subscribers on substack, so be sure to check it out. I include a lot of chart data and analysis in there, and again it's free, so it's a great resource to learn and to run through things and just keep up to date with what's happening. Also, check out my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback in digital. Be sure to grab a copy. And if you want to expand your crypto knowledge,
check out my course at mycrypto course dot com. Folks, I appreciate you all, thank you for tuning in, and I'll talk to you all later. M
