🚨UPTOBER OVER? BITCOIN, XRP, & ALTCOIN ANALYSIS!

and more and more to swap for bitcoin. That's a little on the limited side because they've already been swapping so much tether and USD coin.

is the ratio of positive comments versus negative comments. Using our algorithm, which is not a perfect science, but a pretty good one, we're able to pick up if someone is you know, mentioned bitcoin in a positive light versus a negative light. You know, if people are saying I'm buying or to the moon and stuff and it isn't sarcasm, right like, we're able to pick up that it's bullish. And long story short, we see this huge, huge spike

in euphoria after this fifteen to twenty percent. I forget exactly what the rise was, but around that range bounce right here, and we're kind of flattening out right at that moment, and we warned people. We basically just said, if you're awaiting bitcoins a new all time high, it may need to wait until the crowd slows down their

own expectations. There are currently one point eight bullish posts toward bitcoin for every one bearage post, and I'd say it averages maybe more like one point two to one. There's always a little bit of a bullish bias. People don't want to just be on social media talking natively about crypto. They're into it for a reason. They expect

prices to go up long term. But when it goes up, you know, almost two to one like this, that's a sign that we're getting pretty overheated and people are putting a little too much by pressure without any cell pressure. And in a zero sum game you always need both or else prices tend to suddenly pivot and go the opposite direction. And that's exactly what happened. And now everyone's like, oh, maybe Santon, it sort of knows what we're talking about, and excuse me. The question is where are we now.

There's so many different things we can look through. I'll try to get through some of what the crowd is doing at this moment. After the mini collapse that we saw as well as how the whales are accumulating. And you can see right here just off of prices mostly you see have read over the past week. This is from last Wednesday to this Wednesday. It's only down to

Modust two and a half percent. Ethereum down about six percent, but you can see especially assets like Manarow which are still getting delistings from major exchange right now, dropping sixteen percent. There's still some mean coins doing quite well. You can see shiba Enu up eight percent in the past week, Pepe up fourteen, up seventeen. We'll dive into how mean coin performances are looking as of now towards the end

of the call. But I think another thing, as we alluded to at the beginning, this is very much being impacted by the war concerns. We saw the same phenomenon going back to twenty twenty two with the Ukraine and Russia war news when that first broke back in I think oct what was it the early part of this year, something like April or May, when we really started to see the Israel and Palestine situation pick up for the

first time and hit global mainstream. That's when we started to see a little bit of a dip there and now it's back. We're seeing a pretty big conscious consciousness spike in terms of the Middle East conflict and all of the top keywords Iran, Israel, war, missiles, East Middle these are all related to the war right now, and people are clearly concerned. When there's war, there are economic

consequences that can trickle over to crypto. Some think that, you know, war can actually be a long term benefit to crypto. Maybe that's the case, depending on what kind of war you're talking about, you know, from an ethical perspective, you know, we had sanceman. Hope everyone is okay and we're not rooting for wherever. But yes, I mean if if currencies collapse and more reliances on decentralized currency exchange, yes,

I guess I see that point. But the usual immediate impact is we see a retrace and a bit of a drop due to economic consequences that usually translate over to crypto.

eventually things went back to normal business. I want to make sure you use the right words here because not trying to make a light of war obviously, But the markets eventually stabilized and started moving up, and there could be factors where because governments do money printing to fund wars and all these different things, that that liquidity ends up finding its way through the markets, and you know, people get bullish because they're like, oh, the government's keep printing,

I'm going to put my money in assets.

tend to see tops. This one was kind of a mid sized one, but after that drop back on the thirtieth, like right after it happened, we started to see more accumulation. It's not much, but they've added about a total of eight hundred and thirteen more BTC since that drop happened, and if we go back six months, they've added a total of about sixty four point three k bitcoin worth tens of billions of dollars, I believe. So it's still

looking quite strong from sharks and whales right now. And I think we mentioned the last time we talked, But the only concern I have is that stable coins aren't really being accumulated, so the dry powder that implies that whales and sharks have more and more and more to swap for bitcoin. That's a little on the limited side because they've already been swapping so much tether and USD coin for bitcoin over the past two ish months or so. When they really started.

and suddenly they have a free yacht. That's that's kind of how it works when you have that kind of capital in a sentiment driven sector like crypto.

and there's way more of them. So when you see drops, that actually is a sign that a rally can either begin or continue because these small holders are liquidating their wallets and the sharks and whales are scooping up those coins. Right now, it's still trickling up a little bit, but I'm noticing it's it's been flattening out since September. There seems to be some contentness from retail traders to take profit,

maybe going back to August September of last year. I think October was when the rally really began to take off. But the point is we aren't seeing crazy amounts of retail wallets being created right now. So even though FOMO had been going nuts toward the end of September, we're not seeing an immense amount of new wallets being created on a daily basis. I consider that a good long term sign. Naturally, you're going to see this growth over time.

This is a four year look at bitcoin wallet growth, and for the good of the the network and crypto at large, you want to see more while it's been created. But as long as it's not rapid growth like this, which would indicate fomo, we're usually in a pretty good place. And then Ethereum doing its thing. It's it's much harder to tell with Ethereum because DeFi and staking just make

Ethereum wallets so much easier to create. If I put these on a shared access Look at how much if the amount of non empty Etherium wallets dwarf the amount of non empty Bitcoin and tether wallets, it's just insane, more than twice the amount, almost two and a half times the amount of Etherium wallets compared to Bitcoin.

But when it comes to you know, looking at fifteen years of data and let's say eleven of those fifteen October's were really good, that's not nearly enough if you talk to any statistician to be able to say, okay, we can conf evidently declare that, you know, eleven out of fifteen Octobers means you can celebrate every October because crypto is going up, And especially when you start seeing words like October trending, that's a pretty good sign that

the mainstream crowd is just kind of believing that this time of year is always bullish. You don't want them to believe that if the average retail trader is just buying into this narrative, it actually creates a higher probability the opposite result coming true. So I would I would pump the brakes on your enthusiasm that crypto is going to go up this month simply because simply because of the timing, it could go up for plenty of reasons, and then if it does, people might think, oh, see,

October is is validated. I knew that it would go up. It could go up for so many reasons, and we'd have to be kind of cautious when it comes to playing the timing game. I see all the time people saying I think that the all time high is going to happen in March of twenty twenty five, and we always scratch our heads and go, why if you believe, if you believe that crypto is just going to chill for now and then suddenly go up in March, why

do you have any crypto at all? If you're that confident it's don't play the timing game, is what I say. Play play the long term situation because timing in the markets always, I'm sorry, the amount of time in the markets always beats timing, and any investor will tell you that, especially from an equities background, it's almost impossible to predict.

And when we have something like the having going on in bitcoin earlier this year, remember it wasn't the month of the timing that crypto went up, it was like the six months before it. As people are anticipating it, So pay attention to the stuff that's going on deep into the future rather than saying, Okay, this event is happening now, I'm going to wait until like the day before it happens and then buy in, right. So that's that's my tangent about timing and how I think October is is kind of BS.

first XRP spoty TIF in the US. Obviously, this is a top ten asset by market cap and there's a lot of there's a big community. There's also a lot of controversy around it. There's obviously a deadline this week where the SEC may appeal the ruling or I should say early next week, and you know, we don't know what's going to happen there, but this is still some good news. What are you seeing for XRP.

Recent filings by Bitwise Asset Management for a spot XRP ETF generated significant interest, signaling a move towards legitimizing XRP as an investment vehicle. So yeah, clearly people are excited about it. Notice though, so this little mini chart shows the social volume of XRP over the past week. It peaked here a couple days ago, and then right after that prices collapse. And yes, part of this was because crypto overall started to see a retrace, but other assets

did not see this sharp of a decline. And I think this is a perfect example of a buy the room or sell the news, where everyone thinks that this news is going to be good for XRP, and then the sharks and whales and the powers that be say no, no, we're not going to be pumping XRP yet. And this has happened with like Bitcoin's ETF at the beginning of twenty twenty four. I think it was May or June when Ethereum got there.

people getting excited about speculative news right now. And I think it's it's a very classic by the rumor, sell the news situation.

it's still a far way away. But at least according to the metrics right now, we saw a gigantic amount of transaction volume on this news It was about a three month high here and then going down. Similarly with circulation. This is the amount of unique tokens moving on a daily basis, and we saw one point three to five billion XRP being moved on September thirtieth. That was the highest since August first. And then this one might be

key right here. I actually like to see that the average returns of addresses that been active in the past thirty days, you're back in the red, down about two percent. So there's actually slightly less risk than average. If you were to buy during any time during xrp's existence as a publicly traded coin, you'd be buying while the average traders are slightly underwater on the short to mid term timescale, that's a good thing. From a three to sixty five

day perspective, they're just barely above zero percent. So if we start to see this one get a little below zero, these are the ultimate times to buy. Like we saw about four weeks ago on September sixth, they were both way underwater the short and long term returns, and then suddenly we see this huge spike. And that's I mean almost every time when you see average returns well below

zero percent. It's such a great signal that buying is a very likely good, good strategy, and we're at least in a situation where XP looks like it's leaning toward a buy candidate once again.

ratio of the discussions are bullish versus bearish. So there's still kind of a tug of war going on between bulls and bears, probably because this correction has pulled this down. I bet right after the announcement of the ETF filing it was way like super bullish like here, and then people saw the retrace and said, oh, okay, I guess it's not a big deal. So I find that interesting too. Okay, So in terms of meme coins, I've got this chart.

This is pretty noisy, So I'm going to turn everything into one week bars instead of one day.

metrics are doing. Twelve hundred and three whale transactions at the end of September that was the highest in about four months, and then we're followed up with the largest amount of daily active addresses since early April, seven month high. This tells me that there's a lot of buying the

dip going on, and it's not just retail traders. This blue bar here indicates that even after Whales sold the top, that's clear based on this bar right before the green turned red here, Whales are still being very active even on this downtrend. So what is most likely happening is they sold and then bought back in really quickly, and I like the look of that. And of course, doche

coin does have some control over other meme coins. It works a little like Bitcoin, but for memes specifically, where doge tends to go first, and the profits of doge coin redistribute into other meme coins like bonk with shiba Enu and others. So if you're into meme coins, you should be rooting for doge to have a little bit of a rebound here over the next few days or a couple of weeks, and that can very well start another cycle of meme coin excitement.

have all these people promoting it on social media. I find that so annoying because I know what it is and I know the high possibility of a rug that can take place totally.

you're probably not the biggest meme coin fan. If you're in it for a quick buck and more of the gamble aspect and very sentiment driven investments that are perpetuated by trading groups that you may or may not be connected to, then meme coins might be more up your alley. But it's regardless of any of our opinions, it's undeniable that they do have an effect on the overall crypto ecosystem and they can't simply be ignored, even if you never want to touch them with a ten foot pool.

huge right now. It's it's spiked to the highest level of interest in about four months here, and yes, that that is to your point, Tony, at the expense of layer ones and layer twos that are seeing very declining levels of discussion right now. So this is a bit of a warning sign from crypto in general. When you see meme coin discussions get super high, it's usually a reflection of just the overall crypto crowd getting over the euphoric.

So we saw like Bitcoin's positive versus negative comments. This is another way of looking at, you know, the crowd's mood overall, and when it starts going towards speculative assets, it's it's often a caution flag for crypto in general. And I'm even curious, like looking the past just the day. Yeah, so it's calmed down a lot. You can see right here.

This spike here in pink happened maybe twelve hours before the official top for Bitcoin, and it was the highest level of discussion toward meme coins since late May, and late May was also a time when we were getting very close to a top, not quite as perfect as this one, but regardless, I think this is a pretty solid metric. When you just see meme coins rise in discussion, it's never a bad idea to take a little profit to stay safe.