Why isn't bitcoin pumping? That's the big question everyone has. Well, I have some answers for you guys, as the charts are lining up and it shows we are on the cusp of a massive bull run again and the US government recovers some crypto I was stolen from them. I'll give you the details there. And there's some big updates around etherorem and coin Basis base layer two. Let's get into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast.
You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks, what the hell is happening with bitcoin? I want to share some thoughts here because Bitcoin, of course is the mover of the entire crypto market. It
brings into liquidity so the all coins can move. So we need bitcoin to do something. And Bitcoin has been trying to break out and bust through seventy thousand dollars. It keeps hitting a ceiling. So what is holding it back, and over this weekend I put together a newsletter about this topic and I wanted to share what some other analysts are saying. But the main catalyst, folks, for what's holding Bitcoin back is the DXY, the Dollar Currency Index.
We know there's an inverse correlation, and if you look at the Dollar Currency Index going back to September into the whole of October, it's been going parabolic. Look at the daily chart, green candle after green candle. This is what we wanted bitcoin to do, but unfortunately the DXY is doing it. And if you recall I was telling you guys that early in September, I thought the DXY would find some short term strength before rolling over. Well,
it found more than short term strength. It's been going nuts. But the silver lining here, guys, is that it is extremely overbought by the textbook. You look at the daily RSI, it's above seventy. It's been hanging out around the top here for a long time. It just refuses to break down. But one thing's for sure. Let's put our emotions to the side. This is not sustainable. You look at any asset or currency, you look at these charts when it's
in the overboughd zone. It can't stay there forever. It's going to break down, and the longer it stays up there, the stronger that breakdown is going to be. So I'm preparing for once the election and some of these macro factors come into alignment, you're going to see the dx y breakdown significantly, and that's going to be very bullish for Bitcoin in the all coins. I believe Bitcoin is going to start to go parabolic in November into December.
Now I could be wrong. I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm forming my thesis on the data, not my feelings or emotions. What the data is telling us and Bitcoin. One thing that's very bullish is on the short term timeframe, it is forming higher highs and lower highs. That's a good sign. It's stare stepping its way out of this zone. Now it has to break through seventy that's key, right, So I think seventy k's around the corner where we can break through there and then it's going to go
into price discovery. That's what we're waiting for, folks. And I know it's painstaking, I know it's annoying. Look, I've been here for multiple bull and bear market cycles. This is boring the hell out of here. Now. I'm not fearful, I'm just bored. I'm just like, oh, come on, like we want to get this show in the road. Right. I'm getting a bit impatient, but I'm not fearful because I see different factors, the macro, the technicals, and much
more are aligning with the bull run continuing. But it's a patience game. It is so much of a patience game. And this is where smart money is usually able to outlast retail and people who are not financially educated. Right, people who are not financially educated follow headlines and then they sell, they dump, they run for the hills when they see the price pull back and there's some negative news versus saying, hey, I'm gonna buy to dip and continue at my position because I know where we're at
in the timeline of this bull market. And unfortunately, unless you're financially educated doing your research, listening to the Thinking Crypto podcast and getting up the data information and look other off podcasts as well who are sharing quality information, you're like a plastic bag floating in the wind. Right. You need to be anchored and understand the data. The data is so important and understanding what's happening in the markets. So let me share what some different analysts are saying.
So analyst Bob Lucas, who I'm a big fan of, he says, Bitcoin on day fifty one of sixty day average cycle and not breaking down near its high. This is a right translated cycle, indicating consolidation since March is coming to an end bullet structural change without confirmation due for a dip into November fifth, but there's never a guarantee. Okay, a couple things sent pack there. Right translated cycle means
it's the extended cycle he was predicting. Possibly, possibly he's just throwing a thesis out there that it would be a left translated cycle and we would have the blow off top by the end of this year. But unfortunately Bigcoin said no, We're going to stick to the plan of the normal four year cycle. And the reason why Bob and other people were saying left translated cycle is because bitcoin was ahead of schedule at the beginning of
this year. It hit the new old time high before the having it never did that in its history, and the ETF buying was driving so much demand. But I think it's good that bitcoin is slowing down and we're back to a normal cycle pacing, and that will be good because it allows it to build more momentum and for more liquidity and all these things to come into play, and it aligns with the rise of global liquidity, the
continuation of money printing, and all these things. So Bob continues saying, basically, given where the four year cycle stands about to begin year three an eight month range, we're on the cusp of a breakout and resumption of the bowl trend. So I'm in agree with Bob. He shared different scenarios as far as the timeline. So one of the first scenario's shared is where the breakout comes in
November post election. The other is the other two is more of a pullback into November, but then a bounce in November as well, and then the continuation, and the one where it's really extended, where it just goes sideways to like December and then breaks out. My hope is, you know, at least the middle number two option versus that long extended one. But it is what it is. We have to be patient, right if we want to make good returns, good make money in this market. We
have to be patient. That's the one thing we can control our patients. We can't control what the market does because there's different factors, but we can have an idea of where we're headed based on charts and technicals and macro, not our feelings, and be patient. That's the key. So I hope you guys understand what I'm saying. Crypto wizards said the Q four bull the fun is already starting. Bitcoin has started Q four with a bullish impulse. The
parabolic move is coming. It's only a matter of time. Patience pays. So once again, higher highs, higher lows. That's a very good sign versus what was happening. You know, from March down right we were forming the these lower highs and lower lows. So I think we found the bottom. But it's going to be a bit of a slow
stair step out of this scenario. So guys, things are aligning, and as I wrote in my newsletter, as that DXY starts breaking down and we head into more risk on environment, the money printing from these governments continue, and we've seen the historical correlation inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin. So the DXY is the main catalyst, and I think the uncertainty of the election getting out of the way
will be very bullish for risk assets. And in addition to global liquidity continue to rise and much more so. The on chain metrics also show that whales are bullish. So bitcoin supply and exchanges continues to drop. That's usually an indicator that you see throughout the bullmarket cycle. When there's a lot of bitcoin headed to the exchanges, that means people are going to start selling, start dumping. When it's coming off. It means there's no cell pressure or
less cell pressure, i should say. And whales and sharks with ten plus bitcoin in their wallets continues to they continue to accumulate, so that number is rising and that's a very good sign. Now, quick word from our sponsor, and that is Bitgo. Big Go is one of the top tier crypto custodians in the industry. They provide wallet services and much more. Bit goes headed up by Mike Belshie, who's a web one point zero two point zero legend.
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They've been through multiple bull and bear market cycles and they are still here and they continue to build. So if you'd like to learn more about bitgo, go to bitgo dot com. Link will be in a description. Now, folks, check this news out. The United States government has retrieved over nineteen million dollars from a purported hack this week, and this is according to Arkham and Zach XBT, who's
an amazing sleuth. So the government linked wallet has seemingly recovered eighty eight percent of the lost funds within the day of this security incident. The wallet linked to the US government lost over twenty million dollars worth of stable coins in eth on October twenty fourth, so this is interesting. The funds included fourteen million dollars in the AUSDC stable coin. I've never heard a stablecoin five point four million dollars in USDC and one point one million dollars in USDT
and five hundred thousand dollars in ETH. So this is interesting. I wonder who was hacking the hell out of them. Though it's unclear at the time why the funds move. Both Arkham and cryptosleuth zach XBTC noted that the fund's movement suggested malicious activity. The perpetrator moved the funds to non custodial applications in what appeared to be an attempt
to launder to stolen cryptocurrency. The funds themselves hadn't been moved in over eight months before October twenty fourth, So who the hell would try to hack a government a wallet crypto wallet. I don't know, but that's a pretty dumb move because you're going to have a target on your back. They're gonna come after you, right, So pretty interesting news there now. Vitalic Booterin outlines ways to reduce
etherm's bloat in Purge upgrade roadmap. So reducing the need for every node to permanently store all history, in addition to unneeded protocol features, could mitigate Ethereum's bloat, Bouterin said title The Purge the Possible Roadmap is Booterin's fifth installment
in a series of contemplating Etherorem's future. Now, Etheroreum has been getting incredible adoption, but also there's a ton of layer twos on it because it has scalability issues and it had the first move or advantage with smart contracts, so I think that's why it has a lot of adoption. But over time, if it's not able to fix some of these issues and improve them, other layer one smart contract platforms are going to come steal market share. And look, at the end of the day, I've said many times
there's going to be a multi chain world. There's not going to be one blockchain rule them all right, and we're going to see competitors like look, Solana, Avalanche, Suite, Aptos and so forth. These are going to come take
market share. Now, as always, we don't know the future, and we'll have to see which one survive, right, because not everything's going to survive f as we've seen this in many different industries, whether it was Web one point zero with the dot com boom and different websites and services, Web two point zero with social networks and apps and
so forth. Not everything survives, and there's going to possibly be just a handful of winners who are going to at least for the smart contracts now, who are going to be in the market. It's not going to be a thousand smart contract block blockchains are going to be in the market. That is possible, but not highly probable right based on the history of adoption of technology and so forth. But let's see what Bluterin is able to
come up with. This move ahead Base, which is the layer two on a theorem, which was created by coinbase. It's one day stable coin transfer volume outranks all other chains for the first time. Boy, Coinbase made a smart move when they built this thing, and they didn't put a token on it, and they're collecting fees. It's boosting their revenue. It's been getting a lot of adoptions, so
this is really amazing. So the volume of stable coins transferred on Coinbase's base ethereum layer to blockchain in October twenty six was hired in all other blockchains for the first time. Are Tomis data shows thirty percent of all stable coin volume took place on Base, a higher proportion than typical leaders Ethereum, Salon and Tron. Now we know Coinbase they leverage a lot of USDC, so that's really beneficial for them. They're a big pusher of USDC and
nothing wrong with that USDC. It works really great, and I've had Jerry Malayer on the podcast talking about USDC and much more. So it makes sense that they're seeing this type of activity and they also support USDT and other stable coin so makes sense. Smart move by Coinbase, and that's why this week we saw crack in exchange that hey, we're going to launch our own blockchain as well, call inc and I believe they're doing that on optimism, which is another layer to on top of the theorems.
So Coinbase really set the standard here. Now, I know Finance was the first to create this idea with Binance smart chain, but Coinbase took it to another level. I mean, we have to be realistic the amount of building that's taking place and how they monetize it, and being smart by not creating a token with it, I think really
has really worked out well for them. Now continuing the news around Coinbase, guys, I'm really excited about this news and I'm actually going to be testing this out, so Brian Armstrong, So you have Coinbase tweeted out, create an AI agent with a crypto wallet and optional X account in less than three intes. Folks, we heard a bit about this about a month ago where Coinbase tested the first payment transfer between AI agents. Well, they've now built
the ability for you to create an AI agent. I think this is going to be really game changing for many different industries that you can have this automated AI agent going out doing things and the creator of it doesn't have to be constantly monitoring it. It has a wallet, you can pay it, you can do stuff with it. So I don't know, maybe like someone creates an AI agent that answers questions about a certain topic on social media X or something like that, and you can tip
it or pay it for the answer. You see where I'm going with this, right, There's a lot of things that could be automated and people can earn and it doesn't have to be something crazy. Maybe you tip it a couple bucks in USDC, I don't know, or pay it a couple bucks in the u SEC. I hope you guys see what I'm talking about. This is big and this is why I've often said that AI and
blockchain are going to have a symbiotic relationship. They're going to benefit each other because AI is going to help enhance blockchain and Web three attributes and increase the automation, while blockchain is going to be used to police AI to make sure that these de fakes and all these things don't get out of hand and we can verify things. So pretty amazing stuff, right, folks. I'm really excited to see what else is going to be generated out of this,
So I'm actually going to be researching this. How can I leverage this to benefit you guys, you know, whatever it may be, and create news services and products and things like that. It's pretty amazing stuff. Anyway, folks, that's the news. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button. Don't forget to sign up for my free email news that are on Substack. It's a great way to support me in the podcast. Also, grab a copy of my book, Rethinking Crypto, available on Amazon and
paperback and digital. Buy a copy for yourself, buy a few copies for your friends and family, And if you bought a copy already, please leave a five star rating and review. It would really help me out Thank you guys, shate you all, and I'll talk to you all later