March April May latest, this bullmarket should be over, but I think price wise, the best is yet to come, and that is usually what we see towards the end of the bull market. We have the price scoring parabolic, we have the price going completely vertical, and eventually we have a blowoff top.
This episode is brought to you by Gemini, which is one of the top crypto exchanges in the industry. I've been a user of Gemini for many years. They make it easy for you to buy, sell, and trade crypto. Gemini has a lot of unique features. They have a fully functional app, a credit card, they include staking on their platform, and they also have a stable coin called Gemini Dollar which is USD back and Gemini is certified,
regulated and licensed. They are available in seventy plus countries and if you sign up using my code or link which will be in a description, you can get fifteen dollars in bitcoin when you trade your first one hundred dollars. So if you'd like to learn more about Gemini, visit the link in the description. Welcome to the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward and I have with me Chris from the MM Crypto channel. Chris.
Great to have you on, Thank you very much. Happy to be here talk crypto.
I think we are just in front of something monumental happening in crypto, and it's quite a good timing to come on your podcast.
Great channel. Happy to be.
Here, yeah, for sure, man. And I've learned a lot from you from a technical analysis chart wise reading the charts for bitcoin over the years, so I certainly appreciate your content, and I figured I got to get you on. And but let's start about with your background. You know, tell us about where you're from and how did you first discover bitcoin?
Sure, I mean, I think we'll talk about like bitcoin ethereum, price charts and everything. If you want to talk about some private stuff before, fine, Some people who are following me they already know. I was studying a few different things. I quit them very often. But when I found economics, that was my third study. Two of them, two previous studies I actually quit before. When I found economics, I loved it, like the first time. Like school, I didn't
like university, I didn't like nothing. But when I found economics, this was really fascinating me. And I don't know, I really loved it and I even had a central banker as an ex central banker as a professor, and he was teaching us about the flaws of the monetary system, of the problems we are facing with the occurrency, with the central banks and with the knesin economics, and wow,
I was like mind blown. I was like, Wow, the whole system is ripped, right, I mean, this is basically just a whole system to redistribute wealth from the lower class to the middle class to the rich eventually. And I thought, the solution for that is your things into things like real estate and gold and silver, And yes,
to a certain degree it is. But when I found and that was still while I was studying, When I found bitcoin, I immediately knew, Wow, that is it, Like, this is what I want to spend all my time on, whatever I want to put all my energy in. And yeah, I went ahead and I went full on crypto. I quit my studies afterwards. I still finished economics, but then I quit my master's degree. I was still driving a
taxi in the beginning times of my crypto career. I was driving a taxi four or five years or so, which I then also eventually dropped out of and I just went full on full time crypto seven eight years ago or something, and now I'm still here. I think we probably joined the space round about at the same time. And now I'm here, still full time crypto and not doing anything else all in, and I'm very happy about this decision.
That's amazing man. And from your content that you put out, I've noticed that it seems to have changed your life significantly. I think you're in Dubai. I see some of your multimillion dollar trades, which is incredible. So you know, how does has this change your life and your family and so forth.
I'm great, of course, back in the days, I mean, I'm not coming from a very badly situated family. It's just normal, right, not crazy, not bad, just normal, right. I was always very happy and satisfied with that. So from that standpoint, it's not that I'm coming straight out of the slums, even though I was kind of growing up in the worst, like around about the worst area
of my hometown. But of course it really really turned my life upside down, and I'm very grateful for that, not only with the things I can treat myself with, but also friends, family and other people, schools and everything.
It's just a beautiful.
Blessing alongside, of course all the nice riches you can get for yourself. So that was really beautiful, and up until today I really enjoyed a lot. But I can tell you everyone who's listening this and who is striving for like a lot of wealth and life. It is nice, it is satisfying you, but it does not eventually really make you happy.
Right.
Satisfaction and happiness are two completely different things. Whereas satisfaction is a beautiful thing, but to really achieve happiness, of course, you have to focus on family. You have to focus on health, you need a purpose in life, and many of these more meaningful things. Maybe build your own family, which eventually really will make you happy. Things like wealth are just a very nice supporting factor behind that.
But I can.
Say I'm not against it, and it was definitely very beautiful along the way, and I'm not stopping here, that's for sure. Yeah, these MOO time million ustallar trades you mentioned, of course, I still have one open. Actually right now it looks amazing. But what people don't see, or what many people don't see when they look at my channel now is in the bear market. I got liquidated on two very big trades beforehand. That was my whole strategy all along. I said, I am going to open a
big bigcnlong position. If I get liquidated, I will open and one immediately again. If I get liquidated, I open one again. So I waited until BIGCN re traced around about fifty percent from the all time high, and I started opening these positions. I got liquidated two times, maybe three times on like one hundred and fifty two hundred thousand dollars three hundred thousand year sto soft amount money.
So but I knew BIGCON is not gonna.
Go to zero. Eventually, I'm gonna hit the bottom. And once I hit the bottom, I'm gonna scale up as the big bull market goes higher. And that's what I did, And now of course I have this trade is like eight million dollars in a profit, probably like fifteen times more than I lost previously before I actually opened this eventually successful trade. I did the exact same thing in the last bull market. I said, I'm going to do
the same thing again. Some people followed me, many people thought I was crazy, But in my opinion, this is like an amazing strategy, and I'm going to do the same thing in the next big con bear market again, just with an eventually even bigger position. So I think if you do it like that, I mean you can do day trading, string trading. That's a little bit more complicated then, of course, but if you do a position trade like that, it's pretty easy.
I have to say. Then, just need to know where to actually scale up when we are.
Breaking resistance areas, and I think we will talk about some resistance areas for big connent predictions about that a little bit later on as well.
Yeah, how did you learn about technical analysis? Like what was your journey there? What tip would you give for like people who are like, what the hell is technical annalysis? How do I read the charts and so forth?
Yeah?
I didn't study any of that, right. I was an economist and a taxi driver, so basically traveling just to like eat food and all inclusive hotels, driving a taxi on the weekend, and studying within the week.
So I was not a technical analyst.
And when I started actually with crypto, I was analyzing icos because analyzing that is what I was good at. Microeconomics, macro economics, then looking at token economics and these kind of things. This is something which really was spitting into my brain. So I was doing that also quite successfully, of course, with ups and downs. But eventually I thought, okay, trading could be fun as well. I mean, I'm having my holding portfolio, I'm having my invest in portfolio without coins, and I want to.
Do something along the way.
Because buy and hold and then maybe selling half on a double that is nice, but I'm getting bought. So I was getting into trading, and I was learning it just along the way, but I was doing a little bit different than like the typical Wall Street trader. I want to really keep it very simple. I'm using just very few, very few indicators RSI support resistance volume. I want to keep it very easy. I'm actually zooming out
on the daily, weekly, monthly candles. I'm not getting hot up on the day, on the hourly, on the four hourly, on the fifteen minute. Some people might do it, but I'm telling you almost everyone, almost one hundred percent of those people are losing money. And the more you zoom out, the fewer fake outs you have, the fewer, the fewer things you have where you can get caught up on the shorter time frames where you can actually get liquid. So if you actually zoom out, Da Vinci, my friend
is usually saying when it helps zoom out. I really love that, and it's very true. Then you are taking some emotions out of your trades. And the less emotions you are having in your in your actions in bitcoin, whether it's investing or trading, the less likely you are actually to lose money. And that is very important. Don't lose money. And yeah, that that is my approach to bitcoin, whether it's investing, but also in trading.
So it sounds like you take the macro approach, right. You're not in the hourly daily you know, trying to get quick scalps or something like that. You're more the macro trader, bigger portfolio size with your longs. Right, And I'm a newbie to this, Like what is the timeline for your lungs or do you keep like renewing it or something like that. What how's that set up?
I have since like this trade I opened it, that was a great entry man, like at seven teen thousand US dollars or maybe sixty seventeen I think it was seventeen thousand US dollars on a lower average, and that was I think like roundabout when the FVX blew up, right, I thought, okay, like next pain, I just got liquidated on that other trade, let me open the next one. And I thought, okay, I really think this must be it.
I mean, we are below the previous all time high, below the previous below the all time high from the previous ball market nineteen thousand, seven hundred US dollars in December twenty twenty, so I was pretty sure that this was it. There was November twenty twenty two, so we are talking two years. That is still the same trade. So I did not open a new trade. This is still the same trade. It's just the I don't know, one hundred two hundred thousand US dollars I have put
in back in the days. Now, I've put in much more because I was scaling the trade higher in the meantime and near my average enterprise. This trade is now round about forty thousand US dollars in the beginning of seventeen, but then I was just scaling higher. But the trade you see now, which I'm sharing on my YouTube channel or on my Twitter account every now and then I'm posting an update. I show it live in the videos
it's still the same trade like before. And stupid enough, I didn't open a future I opened it in verse perpetual, and I'm still paying funding fees on that. So round about one point eight million US dollars and funding fees are paid now within the last two years. Luckily, this is like eight million dollars profits, so I can cover the funding fees. But I'm a little bit annoyed. I think next time I'm going to do it, it will be a future just trade for sure.
That's amazing, man. Okay, let's talk bitcoin. We had an incredible run up in the beginning of this year, with bigcoin hitting new all time high before they having never did that before. You got the ETF buying, but then there's massive cool down accumulation zone boring, Chris, what are you expecting in a short term in Q four and as well as the long term into twenty twenty five.
Well, we hit seventy three thousand US dollars. Nominally speaking, we hit an all time high, yes, but if you actually look and purchasing power, if you adjust the big contrast of seventy three thousand in terms of what could you buy at the time, we hit seventy three thousand US solus when we broke the previous all time high now and in twenty twenty one, actually purchasing power wise, in real terms, we didn't break the previous all time high.
Yet you would need a big contract like ninety thousand US solus one hundred thousand US to US right now to have purchasing power adjusted the same buying power by holding one bitcoin then when we actually hit the previous all time high in twenty twenty one. This is something people have to keep in mind. So for me, the real all time high is broken when we are hitting
one hundred thousand US for US. So yes, I'm excited that we hit this seventy three thousand US solar mark, but I think we are still price wise far away from what we can see in this ball market, and I think we will see prices far beyond one hundred thousand US for US. We just have to because otherwise this was not.
Even a real bull market, I want to say.
And it really becomes a real ball market when you break the previous all time high end I want to break it in purchasing power, adjust the terms, because that is what really comes down to and time wise, I want to say, I think we are we are reaching we are reaching the end of the bullmarket soon. Maybe we have another six months ago, maybe we have another eight months, nine months ago. I mean, who am I to predict that up to the exact month.
I can't.
But I think if you look at the cycles, how long a cycle usually takes, how long it usually takes after the bigcon halfing, after we are breaking the previous autumn higher nominal terms, like if you look at all of these metrics, March April May latest, this ball market should be over. But I think price wise, the best is yet to come, and that is usually what we see towards the end of the ball market. We have the price scoring parabolic, we have the price going completely vertical,
and eventually we have a blow off top. So the last six seven, eight months can give us another two hundred three hundred percent in price gain, that is possible. Not saying necessarily it's going to happen, but at least one hundred and fifty thousand dollars is something I want to be expecting. So that would mean another one hundred and fifty percent at least from here within six seven months.
So something you.
Are waiting for years before in the end of the ball market, this can happen within a few weeks, and I think this is what is going to happen. It takes some time, whether it's next month, whether it's next week, whether it's really starting in December, but it has to happen anytime soon.
This is my prediction.
What models do you use to help get an idea of the approximation of the top price? Is it Fibonacci, is it Elliott wave? How do you calculate that on a chart?
Well, first of all, we have as the market is maturing, if we have more and more market cap actually denominated to the crypto market, we have diminishing returns to scale as the market gets more mature percentage Twice, we have smaller retails. Whether we are going to have a supercycle or something in the future. Okay, this is something we can maybe discuss in another episode. And it's really really
a lot connected to exegen as factors. But just looking at the charts I'm using, of course the bitcom monthly chart. Just the normal channels support resistance easy. I think fibun actually doesn't really for approximating the bigconnoutem high. What I really like to do and what I found to be mind blowingly accurate is actually on chain metrics. And I don't know if you discussed on train metrics on your channel before, Probably you did. I see you are pumping
out a lot of content. But on chain metrics, it's amazing. It's something we have never had before. I mean, if you want to look at Tesla, you can look into the fundamentals of Tesla the stock, right, you can look at Okay, what's the sales, what's the debt debt like, what's their earnings per share?
Whatever?
Right, you can look at all of these things. You can look at the chart and the technique analysis. But what you can't do is you can't go to Wall Street or to the New York Stock Exchange. You can you can't tell them show me all your insights, show me who is buying Bigcom, who is who is buying Tesla? Who is selling Tesla? What are the rich people doing right now with the Tesla stock or share? What are the poor people doing? What are those people doing who
are holding a lot of these shares? What are the big shareholders like? You can't do any of that with on chain metrics, you can you can go into the Bigcoon blockchain. You can see what are the whales doing right now? What is the smart money doing, What is the dumb money doing. What are those people doing who are holding bitcoin for one year, for four years, for eight years, that is the smart money. What are the people doing which are buying bigcoin last week? Are they getting shaky right now?
And so on?
Like this is really valuable insights, really valuable data points. And I am asking myself the question, when is this finally getting mainstream. It is getting a little bit more mainstream already as people are covering it, of course, but it is by far not where it should be. And that is actually a great opportunity, because I think on chain metrics, whether you're doing it on glass note or anywhere else. I like to use glass note. I think
it's an amazing opportunity. The moment everyone AI models and like all mainstream people are using it, I think it would be the moment when you can't really.
Use it anymore. But now I still find it.
To be very very accurate, and I really love to use it, whether it's the pure multiple or like exchange balance, the whale chart or like many other things. I really love to use these ones, and I think it's very accurate in predicting the bitcom price.
Yeah, I agreed. I use the same thing from sentiment and some glass no data looking at a supply on exchanges to stable coin supply as well, you know, wallets with ten or more bitcoin and indicating sharks and whales and so forth. So I definitely agree with you there. You know you mentioned like the blowf top may happen sometimes in Q one or maybe you know in Q two or so. Do you think there's going to be
any major catalysts? You know, usually there's a narrative that goes with it, right, we saw the ETF is one of the narratives, but last cycle it was Elon Musk and Tusla. Do you think it's United States Donald Trump bitcoin reserve or something like that.
Well, in the end of the day, I still believe in the saying show me the charts, I will tell you the news, right, and if you just look simply at the bitcoin chart on the monthly, you know it's time. Right, we are consolidating among the all time high seventy three thousand uros dollars. I can send you over a chart which you can maybe overlay here if you want, where every time bitcoin comes close to the all time high, it's usually after the halfing. Now we are again after
the half thing. We are consolidating. The moment we break it, that is the last phase of the bitcoon bull market. So we've been consolidating for way too long already. The moment we are going to break it, there is another six seven, eight month historically usually to go, and that's when the bitcoon bull market top usually happens. That is a similar thing I'm expecting right now. The cycles are approximately for like four years approximately.
We are us going down for one year.
And then we have three years of bull market, whereas two of these three years are pretty boring like sideways markets like the upwards. So you have one year down, three years sideways up, and this time is over very soon. And keeping it simple as that, I think we are going to do pretty well. This is exactly what I'm what I'm expecting for bitcoin. Again, I'm keeping it very simple.
But easy wins the game, that's for sure. That not only that it reduces your stress, it makes you sleep better, but it actually removes a lot of noise and I'm telling you all the noise just confuses you and eventually you're going to get caught up into weird theories of super cycles or this time it's going to be different, and like in the end of the day, just remove as much noise as possible and you're going to be much more accurate as the rest of the market. So
that is why I'm expecting that. So coming from that standpoint, saying, okay, the chart tells me we have six to eight months more to go. Now let's go into the economy and look what's happening. I mean, we are crumbling down, right. Third world economies are crumbling down. Second World economies are crumbling down. You already have of course, we're very very high in fashion rates in Europe and so on in
the United States. I think after Third World and Second World currencies collapsing, eventually you will have you will see not this cycle, not within the next six months, but you are going to see within the next years the euro, the Great British Pound most likely collapsing or struggling a lot. In the end, it's going to be the US dollar,
which might be the last man standing. But you already see big attacks on the US dollar, the US dollar actually weakening, So you see all of these things coming together, and then of course we have the election coming up in November. I think if Donald Trump is going to be elected, it is going to be a rather positive event on crypto.
On bitcoin.
Then if Camara Harris administrative stration is going to win, which if you are looking at the prediction market, it is pretty unlikely, luckily in my opinion.
But I don't want to make.
This a political thing here, but if he gets elected, of course it's not gonna be bull market forever, right. I think we are going to see a few months of pretty positive sentiment, not only in the crypto market, maybe also in the stock markets, but eventually within his presidential term, probably towards the.
Beginning of that.
Already we are going to see the markets collapsing. It's just it's just something and no one can no one can prevent from happening. And I think it is going to happen. So I think if you look at the chart and what's happening in the real world, things are going pretty pretty nicely together. As always, show me the charts, I'll tell you the news. And that is why I am predicting what is going to happen. In a way, I'm predicting it. I might be wrong, but I think overall this is probably what.
Is going to happen within the next six to twelve months.
Yeah, first bull market and then boom crash.
Great points, Chris, and I think you summarize it well, show me the charge and I'll tell you the news right and what's to come. So I love that.
You know.
As far as your personal strategy, are you hoddling some bitcoin and also trading it or just primarily trading.
I'm primarily hoddling.
Actually, like most of my money is in bitcoin right, just cold storage, like in many places where I don't even know where it is, like seriously, so just hoddle, buy, hold and hold forever, like, not do anything that is a big portion of my portfolio. Yes, within this bullmarket, I will diversify out into other assets into maybe farmland, real estate equity, but a good portion of my portfolio, I want to say, the majority of my portfolio I
want to keep in bitcoin. I'm not going to try to outperform the market or to sell at the bitcoin all time, I know, but within the next few months I want to diversify out just for the sake of doing it, and because I told myself like eight years ago, Hey Chris, you're gonna do that within the next ten years if you make a lot of money with crypto. And that is my plan. And trading, believe it or not, is just a fun thing for me to do. I like to do it. It's fun. I like these big trades.
I like some smaller trades every now and then, but that is really just like a small portion of my portfolio.
The big trade it is big.
Yes, this is a significant amount, but this is just for fun, and smaller trades is literally I want to almost call it gambling. So that that is my approach to things. And then all coins at the moment is like maybe ten percent or so of my portfolio at max, actually a little bit less including ethereum. Maybe you are reaching ten percent, then a little bit more even but that's already it. Within the next six months, I will shift a little bit more into all coins. Maybe the
ten percent eventually is gonna get twenty percent. Maybe with portfolio gains out coins, I expect them to perform well in the last phase of the bull market. Maybe these twenty percent may become forty fifty sixty percent, but I will take these profits and put them back into bitcoin. Those profits in bitcoin, I might take some of them and diversify out into reader, state, farm and so on.
So that will be my approach. But to answer your question, trading is for me not very significant, not very important. It's fun, it's nice.
I like to do it.
But the most important thing, and this is what I want people to understand, is focus on why bitcoin is important, why you want to have bitcoin, Because in the future, when you really realize why you want to have bitcoin, when hyper inflation hits or when confiscations are going to happen, that's too late. You want to be exposed to bitcoin beforehand. You want to hold bitcoin beforehand, and you want to
be ready when these apocalyptic times are coming. And that is the main approach I think, and that is very important for me, and that is why most of my bitcoin is in a hodlingk portfolio.
Really great insight. And you mentioned I know you have an ethereum trade. What is your price prediction for etherorem Maybe as bitcoin top side and we hit a massive all season.
It's hard to say, but I think four x from here. You could say it's conservative. If Bitcoin really like makes another three eggs from here, I think Ethereum should make a four x as the market cup is smaller. Of course, as Etherium is still more file and it also goes down more in a band market, it should go up more in the ball market, Big Constant, I think Etherium has still some time to shine. It's gonna be only
a few weeks. But I think a ten thousand US solar Ethereum is realistic if Bigcoon reaches at least one hundred and fifty thousand US dollars.
Are you in your small all coin basket that you have where you mentioned like less than ten percent and so forth. Are you holding any Solana XRP stuff like that.
No Solana, but I am holding some. I just missed out on Solana, and it's just wrong for me to jump on something which which went up five to six d percent. I'm not saying Solana is a bad project. I'm not saying it's not gonna go up. I think a lot of your followers are having Solana. Congratulations to your games. Missed out on that, that's fine. I made amazing games with Sui recently, and updos so that was really cool. I'm holding XP. I'm not an XP fan boy.
I love everyone in XP. If you're watching this, you are an XP fanboy. Amazing. We need you in that space, beaut Before I will show a lot of gates.
I'm holding some EXP.
Myself without being a fanboy, without even being.
A big follower or friend of.
I'm holding a good sum of XP, and it was a stable coin for long enough. I think if the outcomes are taking off with the sec issues being resolved, I see some positive times or some good opportunity for XP within that upcoming out cooncycle as well.
Chris, great stuff. I got some wrap up questions here for you. First, if you could create own metaverse, what would the theme be?
My metal verse would be about food for sure?
Like I would just have restaurants everywhere, food reviews, munching on stuff, barbecues and so on. Like it would be about food for sure. That would be my dream. Some some like gt GTA six kind of metaverse but based on food.
Some rapid fire question and the first one is favorite food.
Meat, meat, lamb, beef, venison, like all women in kind of meat. I also like poultry, fish, I just like all kinds of animal products. I really like meat so much, man, whether it's a tomahawk, Paterhouse, minced meat, burgers, pecorino, cheese, like all of these things, I just love it.
I crave it. I have to say.
I like dark chocolate, I like nut butter, like I like sweet stuff as well. I like I like fruits, papaya, passion, fruit berries, blueberries, white blueberries, not white blueberries, like all of these things, banana tasty, amazing. But when you really have to ask me if there is one thing not focusing on whether it's healthy or not, and it is healthy, but just focusing on what you what I could eat every single day without getting tired of it.
It would be neat.
Not only that it's healthy, nutritious, amazing, It makes me feel good, it makes me strong.
I love it so yes.
To answer your question, this favorite musician are bad? Favorite musiciev Fred Chapin m favorite movie.
Hard to say. There's so many good movies, man, so many. Maybe Passion of Christ was a very good one. There they are like more entertaining ones, but this was very aspiring. Favorite book, favorite book? Well, I said Passion of Christ, so I should say Bible. But let's say let's put Bible aside. Bible, yes, but also what was a very good book for me was How to Win Friends and Influence People, very very good book. And Thinking Fast and
Slow they're also very good. I really think how to Win Friends and Influence People was something which was really really.
Helping me a lot.
I tend to interrupt people a lot, and like I had a lot of flaws in my social behavior and in many other things, and just simply reading that book understanding the system behind it, it helped me a lot in life, for sure. I was reading in twenty sixteen seventeen, and afterwards everything went up.
There definitely a good book. Amazing.
And when you're not training crypto or doing anything crypto, what are you doing for fun? What's your favorite hobby?
Football? I love football and cooking.
M Chris, absolute pleasure chatl with you. I always appreciate your insights, man, and thank you so much for joining me.
Thank you very much, man.
What's awesome to be I can't wait to see afterwards when you when you publish that channel, maybe in the comment section some people can leave their favorite out coins and I will go into your video in the comment section, maybe I will engage a little bit with the people.
Awesome, awesome, thank you, Chris,