Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as well as a thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks. Of course, we have to talk about the price of bitcoin. That's what everyone's talking
about. There's a lot of fear in the market right now. People are asking is the crypto bullmarket over? Is this it for the twenty twenty three twenty twenty four bull market? And I'm going to share some facts in some metrics to help form a thesis here. I personally believe that the higher probability leans towards the bullmarket, that we are still in the bullmarket and we will see a continuation. Now that's not to say we can completely ignore the bear
scenario. We'll talk a bit about that as well. We want to make sure we're balanced, we want to make sure we don't have buloe onto each possible scenario. And let's start by looking at the price right now Bitcoin at fifty six four hundred and twenty seven dollars huge red candles on the daily chart, and the RSI, which we saw had a massive bounce the other day,
is headed back downwards. But with all things considered, when you zoom out, when in doubt, zoom out, you see there's nothing unusual here as far as a pullback and a bull market looking at both the RSI and the price. However, I do want to say that if Bitcoin is to collapse below let's say forty eight forty six K in that range, I will then have to readjust my strategy and say, yeah, something is really different
here. Maybe we're running like the twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen cycle where there was a big pump and then a huge correction and a long consolidation into the next parabolic move. That's possible, right. We can't rule out any type of scenario here because no one has a crystal. We can just form our thesis based on probabilities. And I know that's something that many people don't want
to hear, but that's investing. If you want some level of certainty, then go play the lottery, right, get your lottery numbers and then wait for the drawing. But we know the odds of that. Versus holding an asset in a currency debasement cycle and global liquidity on the rise, you have a better chance of making an incredible return. But you have to exercise patients, and you have to go through these rollercoaster rides and market volatility and experience
is a great teacher. I've been here since twenty sixteen, so this doesn't phaze me. Don't get me wrong. The first go around, when I saw the parabolic run up in twenty seventeen, there was huge corrections, guys, and an example, Adam Back highlighted the major corrections we saw in the twenty seventeen parabolic run up, which included thirty eight percent drops, thirty six percent drops, thirty three Right now, we haven't even hit anything close to
that. Here. Wrecked Capital highlighted the percentages of the drop since February twenty twenty three in this run up, and they're The highest was twenty three point six percent. So these are rookie numbers compared to previous cycles. So this is why I'm personally not phased. I know some of you getting into the marketer who just got in this is like, WHOA what is happening? Is it over. It's just the end of bitcoin. But this is normal,
guys. This is the volatility we have to deal with. And I often like to remind people it's the pendulum that swings both ways. This market moves like nothing we've ever seen. The prices can skyrocket like that, but also the pendulum swings the other way where they can drop significantly. So it comes with a territory. But this type of volatility allows you to make significant returns. That's why bitcoin is the best performing acid over the past ten to eleven
years. Now a factor as to why I'm still bullish and why I believe we're still in a bull market. The dxy is collapsing, guys, the price as well as the RSIs. You can see here. We've been watching this over the past couple months and so forth, you know, waiting for it to top out. It seems like it is. But some of you may ask the question, Tony, I thought you said these things were inversely
correlated. When the dxys crash and risk assets are supposed to pump, yes, but that's usually about ninety percent of the time, it's not one hundred percent of the time. So I think there's a bit of a lagging effect here. I think Bitcoin is close to its bottom and I think it will catch the momentum off of the DXY crashing. Plus, we have to keep
in mind that there's a lot of urging of liquidity that's taking place. For example, yesterday, within sixty minutes, one hundred and ten million dollars was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market. The amount of liquidations we saw was the biggest since the FTX collapse in December twenty twenty two, So this was significant. When you have these type of events, usually you're near the bottom. It's
a reset and it positions bitcoin and other crypto. He said, Then move in the opposite direction because they're hitting this the super oversoul zone and there's no more sellers. It just is only a reversal that has to happen. And this is true not only for crypto but other assets if you study the RSI and how these things move. So that's why I believe we are still in a bullmarket. The other factor is the fear index. Remember I've been tweeting
about this, talking about this that the plebeians. I've been making the joke that the plebs need to feel fear before bitcoin bounces. So the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index now a twenty six. That's very bullish in a bull market, Guys, in a bear market obviously not bolished, right, but we're in a bull market. We're far from the bottom. Like I always say when in doub zoom out you look at this chart. This does not look
like the end of the bull market cycle. Now, with that said, I am not a perma bowl where I completely ignored the bears and the bitcoin is to break like forty eight forty six K, then you've got to sound the panic alarm. It's right now, it's still holding up some key support levels. Another factor is the Piece cycle top indicator, which I've been sharing with you guys recently. This is on look into bitcoin dot com. There's
some great charting and metrics here, and that hasn't crossed now. It has been very accurate in the past three bull market cycles, talking about twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, go back to twenty thirteen and twenty fourteen. So it's headed in the direction and fairly close to crossing, but it has not crossed yet. So once again, these different
factors are telling us party is not over yet. Now, like I said, that could be invalidated if something happens and drives Bitcoin further down and changes things. Right, Look, things can remain the same until they change. That's just how it is. But like I said earlier, we could see something like twenty thirteen into twenty fourteen where people thought the first run up in twenty thirteen it was done because there was a massive correction and almost looked like
we were headed into a bear market. But it's consolidated. It found its bottom slowly and steadily grinded and then ran up to another parabolic high. So we'll have to wait and see, guys. Once again, no one has a crystal ball, but we can at least form a thesis, make educated guests versus using our emotions and just saying it's over. Bullmarket's over, the price is down. Okay, Well what are you basing that on? You know? Is it the sun is out today in the sun or it's a
cloudy day, or are you basing it on facts? So we'll have to wait and see. Another great chart I want to share with you guys is from tech dev who's a great end analyst. He took the bitcoin price and aligned it to the Wall Street Psychology cheat sheet, which shows the emotions,
the emotional milestones in a bull market. And right now he shows that we are headed to a bit trap scenario because we hit the first sentiment extreme, which was bitcoin hitting seventy four k before the having which it never did in its history, and then we needed that massive cool down after that bear trap. And because the reason why is a bear trap. Right now, it's a big correction and a lot of bears are going to say, oh yeah,
it's over. We're going to open shorts, and you guys know what's going to happen, massive liquidations when bitcoin reverses, right, and then it goes to renewed optimism, then to fomo, then to euphoria. You want to be selling at that fomo to euphoria zone, guys, to take your profits because that's when the Grandma's uber drivers and everybody's coming in. We're nowhere close to that. We didn't see any type of massive retail sentiment and so
forth. So these are different factors I'm looking at to say the bull market is not over right, folks. Quick word from our sponsor, and that is bitgo, which is one of the top crypto custodians in the industry, headed up by Mike Belshie, who's a web one point and two point zero legend. Many big companies in the crypto industry use bitgo as a custodian, including Panthera Capital that's Dan Moorehead's fun, Bitstamp Exchange, Bitcoin, Ira and
Nike also uses bitgo for their wallet services. And the services that bitgo offers include hot wallets, custodial wallets, self managed coal wallets, and NFT wallets. So if you'd like to learn more about bitgo, go to bitgo dot com. Link will be in a description. Now, we got news here that Grayscale Ethereum trusts discount to nav quietly switches to premium ahead of anticipated spot ETF launch. So many reports are coming out, especially from the Bloomberg analysts,
that the spot ets will be approved this month. Maybe that's the catalyst that helps the market to do. It's a reversal. I'm not talking about pumping to new all time highs. I think that's coming probably we're months away from that. But to do a reversal, to find out bottom and balance, that's what we want to see. So Grayscale is prepping here. So having previously traded at a discount for the last three years, Ethe reached a premium to NAV of zero point one to three percent on July third, ahead
of Independence Day. According to why Charge Data, premium or discount to NAV indicates how much above or below the market price of each share is compared to the value of ether it represents. The Ethe discount had been narrowing since the crypto bear market bottom of December twenty twenty two, as speculation grew surrounding the US SEC approval of spot etherem ets following the launch of Dear Bitcoin counterparts in
January. So, guys, once again, this could be the catalyst, and it looks like these big players are preparing for this ETF launch this month, So maybe comes in the middle of July July fifteenth, around that that week. We'll have to wait and see. Now, guys, the crypto industry continues to fight back against the government overreach. We've often talked a lot about the SEC, but also the FED, which I believe a lot of cronies who work with Elizabeth Warren are positioned in the FED. They of course
blocked Kaitlyn Long's Custodia Bank, but the industry is submitting amikas briefs. Caitlin Long and Custodia Bank have filed an appeal in the case. So Kaitlyn tweeted out torrential thanks to the seven who filed amikas briefs in Custodia Banks case versus the Fed. I am deeply grateful. Three x US solicitors general to Obama, one Bush, and plus ex Solicitor General of VA are now involved in our case. Wow, some big names. Eleanor Tarrata Fox Business gave some
details on that. She says. Former Solicitor General under Obama, Donald Vilrelli says regulators are deliberately debanking crypto. Despite the digital asset industries pressing need for banking services, federal regulators have waged a concerted, coordinated campaign to debank the industry. We know this started with Elizabeth Warren and her cronies like SHIROD. Brown and so forth. This is why we get to keep fighting. It's
not Biden. Look, Biden, we know it should be somewhere enjoying retirement. Right. He hasn't said anything about crypto. This is all Elizabeth Warren and her cronies. Obviously, she's got Genster working with her. And when I was in d C for the DC Blockchain Summit, and I think it was in May, I spoke to various people and they're like, yeah, Elizabeth Warren's staffers. They get moved around and they go to different places and they do her bidding. So it's her cronies who's doing all these things.
Guys, it's not Biden and so forth. I know it's often highlighted as the Biden administration, but it's not Biden himself, you know, as opposed to let's say Trump, who is pro crypto and you know, has spoken about it very openly. It is pretty much Elizabeth Warren behind the scenes.
Eleanor also provided some additional details, saying Barelli, Obama's solicitor general, who was in office during the original Option choke point, and Clement Bush's solicitor General have clashed over a number of Supreme Court cases over the years, but the pair have come together to support Custodia Bank and the crypto industry by extension in it's a case against the Federal Reserve. Wow, you know, a couple of enemies here coming together. Eleanor says, this is yet another indication of
the changing political landscape around crypto. It's gaining more bipartisan support heading into the November election, So big things are happening, guys. I am so bullish. The price is down. I know sometimes it's hard to be bullish when the price is down. But zoom out, look at the macro, look at where we came from. And I can say that with conviction because I was here in twenty sixteen. I was here when there was no news like this. There was a lot of fun coming from Jamie Diamond and many folks
now we're used to that fud. You know, Jamie's saying the same old talking points. But when it was the first time he came out in twenty seventeen, it was scary because you had the CEO of the world's largest bank saying these things, and you know, people were still skeptics. So even Donald Trump when he was in office, right, a lot of people have changed their opinions about crypto. So we're moving in the right direction and all
these things are going to lead to mass adoption. Now we got news that Rocana is Crypto Roundtable, which we've been talking about, guys, which will include Mark Cuban and the Biden administration. Apparently it's next week, so we'll see if we get anything out of this. And Eleanor said it's being described to me as the worst kept secret in crypto, so they haven't been very open about this, but you know, maybe they're trying to downplay it as
much as possible. And Democrats of Rocana is in one of the top of Democrats is trying to get this through. I'm trying to get Mark Cuban on the podcast to talk about this, So if you guys, tweet at him or email him and tell them to come on the podcast. But guys, all signs of crypto getting embraced and moving in the right direction. This is very bullish. Now there's a big hearing around crypto coming up on Wednesday,
July tenth. It includes the Senate Agriculture Democrats and the Senate Agriculture GOP. They have posted a hearing for next Wednesday on oversight of digital Commodities, with CFTC Chairman Roston Benham as the only witness. Taylor Barr of the Digital Chambers says this will probably be a general crypto hearing as opposed to being specifically about
Senator stab Now's legislation. So all of this is bullish. Guys, they're meeting and talking about crypto to having dialogue and obviously the fifth to twenty one bill Midia out of the House. We need to get it through the Senate, and then it needs to be signed by President. I say a president because we don't know what's going to happen this coming November and the election cycles upon it, so I don't know if anything's going to make it through right
now, but I think twenty twenty five will be the year. And guys, I'm bullish. I am bullish. I don't care what the hell is happening with the price right now. There are too many different facts that are pointing us in the direction of the bull market. So let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button, and guys, don't forget to grab a copy of my book, Rethinking Crypto. I mentioned Operation Choke point two point zero earlier. It's covered in
the book. Custodia Bank and Kaitlin Long's battle against the feed is covered in the book as well. It covers the SEC and much more. It covers Crypto's past president future. Grab a copy to support the podcast. Grab a couple of copies for your friends and family who want to learn about Crypto. And for those of you who have bought a copy already, please please please leave a rating and review on Amazon. It will really help in my rankings
there. I appreciate you all, Thank you so much, and I'll talk to you all later. Post eight pok eight t