Bitcoin gets rejected off the two hundred day moving average, showing some signs of weakness. Is it time to panic? As bitcoin, crypto, and the stock market continued their down trend. I'll give you the details and some charts and where I think things are going to go next. Let's get into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,
Tony Edward. On your way in. Please let that subscribe button as well as a thumbsup button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks, we of course have to talk about bitcoin and the markets because right now Bitcoin is trading at eighty and fifty eight dollars. It has rejected off the two hundred day moving average, which we thought had
been reclaimed. But this is along the lines of the caution that I gave when the rally started and Bitcoin went above the two hundred day moving average. I said, this could be simply a dead cat bounce, just a small relief rally, and we go back and test the lows.
It seems like that's what we're doing. However, bitcoin does not hold key support levels here, we could be in trouble because when you look at what's happening overall with the stock market, like the SMP five hundred, the Dow Jones, even in NASDAC, they are also doing the same thing here. So this is not a good sign. And hopefully the
bottom is around the corner. Different analysts are saying, you know, we could possibly go down to the seventies and that is like seventy five K, find the bottom there and then bounce. Some people are saying, maybe comes after April second, when some of the tariff news which is causing the macro uncertainty is behind us, So that could be a thesis there, but we have to wait and see, and
we have to watch the charts very closely. Now. Some folks are saying, what bitcoin is forming here is a bit of a wike off accumulation and to drop below eighty five K is a bit of trying to shake people out because the narrative is out there of the tariffs, and then we'll find the bottom and start moving ourselves back up. But we got to be carefully here, guys. Now, do I believe we are in a bear market. Do
I believe the bull market's over? No, But that doesn't mean that if bitcoin continues on the trend it's on and it doesn't find the bottom soon, that we can't enter a bear market. So right now, the signals and the data is showing me just a retest, right I look at the RSI, these are things we've seen before, and even in bull markets, we've seen bitcoin go below to two hundred day moving average. Just look at what
happened last summer. I mean that was really rough, right because it stayed under there for a while, and it actually had a false breakout, went back down to the Japanese yen carry trade. It stayed down there for a while through August September until October when we started to break out, and then we had a very strong run up in Q four. So my hope is that it doesn't last as long as what took place last summer, guys, because that was pre brutal. But hopefully this is the final
retest of the lows. Then we have the true breakout and once again, with the macro factor of April second and the tariffs that Trump has been talking about, they finally get to some sort of conclusion there and there is not as much uncertainty in the markets and we can start moving up. But the other factors which are very good and look bullish is that the DXY continues to break down. This is very good for risk assets.
In addition, global liquidity it continues to rise. So these are factors that are very good in a bull market because it means it's still risk on and that assets will find your bottom and keep moving up. In addition, I always like to look at what the whales are doing, the guys who really move the market right, And we're seeing a big, strong uptick here the data some sentiment
of bitcoin being accumulated. There was a bit of a slowdown over the past month, in fact, a bit of a decline coming out of Q four twenty twenty four. Now look at this big uptick. That's a very good signed the whales. They are buying up the dip and they are anticipating higher prices. In addition, other signals that have called the top, like the bigcoin pic cycle top indicator, nowhere close to signaling the top. And then you have this CBBI indicator, which uses a variety of metrics and
aggregates them and formulates a score. It is not showing the top end. So I still believe we are in a bullmarket, not my emotions. Based on the data. There's going to be a lot of people coming out and saying it's over, this thing is done, look at what's happening, right. They're very emotional. There's also people shorting the market, so you've got to make sure you filter out the results people who just say it's over and they try to put fear out there because they want you to sell
because they're shorting. Right, But we are still in a bull market based on the data. So I am not panicking, but I am concerned that I'll leave it at that. I am concerned, right, guys, because I want to see bigco find a bottom soon and get out of this zone. This is not a good thing to be below the two hundred day moving average. Nothing good happens below the two hundred day moving average. As I've been saying, right when the times when we are in a bullmarket, we
are above it. If you look at when the bear market happens, we are in an extended down trend below it. So Bitcoin fingers crossed it finds the bottom. As always, the market moves a bitcoin and you'll see the all coins follow, because right now the all coins are just
gonna bleed out and follow bitcoins lead. So ETHEREUM, XRP, whatever it is, are not going to show signs of strength right now until the macro uncertainty of tariffs are out of the way, and then we can continue to bullmarket because the stock market is also seeing just a ton of SELT pressure here. So that's where I'm att guys, concerned,
not panicking. Bull Market's not over, but if we see in a week's time that this thing is still going down, bigcoin's going out to sixty K. I'm gonna say, guys, I am a bit worried now, right, but not there yet, all right, guys. Some other news that we got coming out is that the Say Foundation SEI explores takeover of bankrupt twenty three and meters in the boldest DCI bet yet.
So this is fascinating. I can't think of, you know, any major crypto company or token project like Say that has gone out and bought a traditional company and looking to start a new aspect of crypto where you're you know, putting blockchain into a specific industry like what twenty three and me does, So let me give you some details.
One day after twenty three and meter received clearance from a judge to put itself up for sale, the SAY Foundation said it is in the process of placing its boldest DCID bet yet by exploring the acquisition of the genetic testing company. Here's a quote. We believe user data sovereignty is a matter of national security, the Safe Foundation said, which supports the Layer one blockchain, SAY wrote Thursday in
an expost. When an American biotech pioneer faces bankruptcy, personal geonomic data of millions become vulnerable to parties that may not share the same values of transparency and open access. These SAY Foundation says, this is to defend the genetic privacy of fifteen million Americans and ensure their data is
protected for generations to come. So this is fascinating and could be the start of a trend where we see a lot of crypto companies buy up a dyeing or bankrupt companies in different industries and an inject blockchain and help renew them, bring life back, and even change your business model a bit. So this could be another way that a blockchain in crypto tech is used in different
industries and it just creates another boom. So I often talk about my sponsor Propy, which is disrupting the real estate market, and you have other folks who are doing depen and now you have DSi. This could be really interesting, you know, disrupting the healthcare science, medical industry in introducing blockchain in different ways. So this is fascinating something to
keep an eye on. I'm going to watch this closely because I don't hold to say token, but if they're making moves like this and they're looking to open up different utility and things like that, I may have to look at adding it to my portfolio. Now, we got news here that hashkey both Sarah to launch tokenized money market ETFs as part of Hong Kong's project and Symbol initiative.
So we're seeing globally the race for tokenization, guys, tokenized assets RWA, and Hong Kong, which is controlled by China, I believe is the testing ground for a lot of crypto and web three projects. They have their own ETFs, and I believe China is going to open up crypto ETF investing to their citizens in the mainland very soon. And that could be the catalyst that comes for the next run up. We'll have to wait and see. But guys, I am just seeing adoption globally and that makes me
very bullish. So Hashkei Group, an Asia based crypto financial services firm, is collaborating with Bosara Asset Management to launch what they claim to be the world's first money market exchange traded funds next month. In a statement released Friday, the duo said they plan to launch tokenized shares for two existing money market ETFs, the both Sarah HKD Money Market ETF and the Bossera USD Money Market ETF. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the two
tokenized ETFs. Such tokenized ETFs are part of a larger project Ensemble Sandbox initiated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority the de facto Central Bank, to explore tokenization of real world assets. So the Central Bank is saying, hey, you got the green light, guys, I hope you see what's happening here. It's not just the United States. This thing is happening globally and a lot of the world superpowers
are getting involved. So hashke Exchange will serve as the primary distribution channel for the tokenized ETFs, enabling investors to gain exposure or direct exposure to high quality money market instruments by tokens, the company said. DeFi investors will then have another tool to balance their yields to mitigate market risk. The company said, So notice how this opens up DeFi. And if you recall just this past week, Fidelity they are looking to tokenize a money market fund as well.
That news was announced. They're looking to do it on etherorem so they're following Blackrock. Black Rock was the leader here. So the competitions on game theory is playing out here. Here's a quote. Bringing money market ETFs on chain through blockchain technology is a crucial step for traditional finance to embrace web three, Zao Feng, chairman and CEO of Hashke Group said in this statement. Last month, OSL, another regulated crypto exchange operated in Hong Kong, launched a tokenized mutual
fund China am see HKD digital money market fund. Wow, that's a mouthful. We don't have details on which blockchain you're using, so that's something I'm going to research and see if we get the details there. But guys. The global race towards blockchain and cryptos here and as I've been saying, the economies, the markets, in the governments will be running on blockchain. Guys. This is the future. So
this is why we're here taking our bets. This is why we're stummaching through the volatility, the roller coaster ride. This is part of it, right with investing, as you all know, it requires a lot of patience and you've got to do your research. This is not playing the lottery, This is not going to the casino. This you have to put some effort in. You have to educate yourself
and pay attention to what's happening. And obviously that's why you watch and listen to this podcast and not only this one, but others, and you make sure you're reading up and you're paying attention to what's happening, because this is an opportunity of a lifetime. But as with the nature of markets, they are affected by external factors as well, like macro factors like terrorists and all this stuff that's going on. But I think these are just short term things.
This is not some thing that's going to linger and hold back all markets. I mean, people often forget like, look what happened in March twenty twenty, right, that was a reason to panic because we didn't know what was going on. It was a pandemic global Go back to two thousand and eight that crash. Sure you panic, but the smart money bought the blood in the streets. Right. You listen to Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, these guys who've been doing it for a long time, they say the
same thing. Right, you got to bypass your emotions. You have to make sure you're patient, and you have to have a macro outlook, and you got to buy the fear the blood in the streets. So right now, if you're feeling fearful where you can't even fathom buying the dip, you're not there yet. As far as understanding the concept of investing right now. Obviously you don't invest money you can't afford to lose, or you don't put your life savings into assets. That's not a smart thing to do.
But you want to look for opportunities. So we'll I personally be looking to buy up some all coins. Yeah, and I'll let you guys know when I do take positions in certain all coins. But as stated the beginning of the podcast, Guys, we're still in the bull market. No invalidation yet. However, if bitcoin does not find a bottom soon and it keeps going down, guys, that's going to be a bad sign. We want to get it above that two hundred day moving average, so we'll have
to watch as closely. Guys. That's the news. Be sure to check out our sponsor bitgo, which is one of the top tier crypto custodians in the market. They also have a retail platform where you can buy cell trades. Stay crypto. Bitco works with many big brands and exchanges and companies in the industry. They have over one hundred
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