¶ Intro
And everyone was saying, oh, this is dip by time, definitely dip by time.
Turned out they were dead wrong, and.
We went all the way down, almost went below sixty k on that bloody day of February fifth. And yes, we rebounded slightly since then, tested like the sixty two to sixty three k range here before this big breakout, and yeah we're seeing some positivity.
But hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward and joining me today is Brian from Sentiment and as you all know, we're going to do a deep dive into the metrics around Bitcoin and the top all coins to get an idea of what's happening in the market. Brian, it's great to see you. And your shirt should be green, my friend, because it's a green day.
I know, you know, you wake up and you expect it to be just like it's been the last few months, and all of a sudden you get the color wrong for once.
It's a happy mistake.
I think we're all pretty excited to see a little bit of a breakout here, and you know, it's a relief in a literal sense, but also this relief rally comes when I think a lot of the crowd has kind of been writing off crypto for a bit as usual. It's a bit of a bear trap that's turned into a mild bull run. I wouldn't say bull run. I guess i'd say more of just a bullish trend for a day and a half or so that people are now pouring their money back into now that they're saying things move up for once.
Yeah, and this is something I've been talking about for a while, that we are due for relief rally because we've been so oversold. The sentiment it has been extreme fear. People have given up on crypto. You know, some of the mainstream media. We're putting headlines out there, bigcoin still too high at sixty seventhing.
That just the writing off crypto again.
And we have often been talking the market does the opposite of the herd to a lot of people out there given up.
They've turned negative.
They started complaining about President trumpet crypto and you just see on the social media timeline.
So it's it's funny how this all works.
Yeah, whether it's coincidental or not, you know, it's up for debate. One thing we can say about the state of the Union from yesterday is he seemed to invoke a lot of confidence in the American economy, and we're seeing stock markets go up.
I'll show the comparison of.
The equities and cryptocurrencies in just moment. But everything is going up today at the time of this recording. It was even going up going into the State of the Union yesterday in terms of the stock markets, while crypto.
Is kind of just staying flat.
And we even put a report out about how you know, the further this correlation gets away, the more of an upside argument there is for crypto to catch up. And sure enough, you know, even though equities are doing well, stocks are up or the S and p's up maybe a little over one percent right now, bitcoins up like six percent, some old coin like Polka Dot up almost twenty five percent right now. So it does look like this is a crypto favorable run. It's not just a
correlated run with stocks. This is the first time we've really seen crypto go up significantly above stocks, at least in twenty twenty six here.
Yeah, and that makes sense because if you look at the price of gold, you look at the chart and the S and P five hundred and even the Nasdaq for that matter. You've seen bitcoin dev eight completely. It's
¶ Bitcoin Analysis
so wild. So maybe here's the bit of the catchup, Right, we're so into dumps, so over sold that we're maybe going to have more upside than those on the markets potentially.
Yeah.
I mean, if you just stew the last four weeks or so, you can see how, you know, stocks and teel here have kind of been flat, Gold's down just slightly, and then Bitcoin's just gotten hammered over the past four weeks, down almost lose almost a quarter of its market cap, But just over the past what call it a little over twenty four hours, it's up nine percent now, and that's enough to get people excited. Especially if we begin to test seventy K I would expect some cell walls
around there to try to challenge it. But if it breaks through and we start seeing seventy one to seventy three k that range, expect a lot.
Of foamo to really start to pour in. Absolutely.
So how's the sense, Well, yeah, we can look at the price and then I would love to see what the sentiment is for bitcoin.
Yeah, definitely, just briefly looking at the price changes, you can see pretty clearly I mentioned Polka Dot currently up about twenty three percent in the past twenty four hours, un to swap nineteen, Avalanche seventeen and a half, light Coin fourteen, chain Link fifteen, and then you got Bitcoin over here. Just in terms of twenty four hours up six and a half percent, it three him up ten and a half percent, and interestingly, so volume has not
caught up. We actually saw way more discussion, especially among bitcoin and ethereum yesterday compared to today, so we'll see if that changes in the coming hours. I think the US is more or less woken up now and they're checking markets, so I wouldn't be surprised by the end of the day we.
See some nice social volume boosts just.
From you know, mainstream media starting to pick up stories talking about all of these big relief rallies that are currently going on.
I wonder if there's also the factor of people don't believe it right, They're like, I don't trust this.
We've been getting dumped on every time we lomp. Yeah.
I mean just like there was when we first went below seventy k no one believed that it could actually go any lower, and then sure enough it does go lower. And now we get a relief rally and a bunch of people just want to take profit rather than.
Start to fomo in and really start.
To believe this is the beginning of the large your macro rebound. But yeah, let's take a look at sentiment here, because I saw going to bed last night that there was actually a huge jump in sentiment, which made me surprised when I woke up to an even further rally pushing towards seventy K. But when I looked going to bed last night, it was almost as high as what we saw in late January when everyone was kind of
in denial. Like I mentioned, it was falling below ninety back at that time, fell below eighty five K, and everyone was saying, oh, this is dip by time, definitely dip by time.
Turned out they were dead.
Wrong, and we went all the way down, almost went below sixty K on that bloody day of February fifth. And yes, we rebounded slightly since then, tested like the sixty two to sixty three K range here before this big breakout, And yeah, we're seeing some positivity, but it's not to the degree that I would.
Think, like I said, the day is still young.
But this is enough FOMO to be a little concerned that the rally might have a little cap to it, but it may, you know, may not really cap until we see that seventy k test to see some limit orders get filled.
Interesting, how does the MVRV look like for bitcoin? So
¶ Bitcoin MVRV
I'm just going to open up our main template here. This is where you guys can see all of our top on chain metrics. So super useful going through some of these.
But as we always do, Tony looking at MVRV on our call here, we're still seeing both the short and long term average trading returns in the negatives. It said pretty day mvrvs back up to about negative two and a half percent.
Hasn't been that high since the end of January.
I still like the fact that both lines are below zero in what's supposed to be a zero sum game for all different timeframes. So thirty day is still under barely three sixty five day is well well underwater at negative twenty nine percent. Still, so the upside is there for this this rally to continue. It just depends on things like whales and stuff, which we'll get into.
Yeah, that's a very good sign that it's still down below they're not even touching neutral yet potentially some room for it to run here and maybe that's, you know, the relief rally. I know some traders are like I just had Garrett salwy On. He's saying, if we break certain levels, we could top out at eighty to eighty five K. And obviously that's a probability, it's not a certainty, but maybe that that would be that would be pretty nice to have that relief.
Yeah, I could see it.
And you know, the nice thing about MVRV is it's not always fluctuating the same way as prices because people are making flawed trading decisions all the time. They're fomoing in when they shouldn't, they're fighting in when they shouldn't. In fact, more often than not, they're doing what they shouldn't do. And that's I think the reason why despite this nine percent jump in a little over twenty four hours, we haven't seen this thirty day, why go back above
zero percent? Because there weren't that many people buying the dip here. This was the point in which a lot of people were really starting to give up. If there was aggressive dip buying, who knows if we even have this little rally. But if we did see the rally anyways, it would have been enough for the thirty day MVRV to be way up here, and then we'd be a little more in risky range. But because of the disbelief, we still have more meat on the bone.
Yeah, and it's, you know, the setup we've talked about so many times, ran ad nauseum, right, extreme fear, the crowd has given up and the market does the opposite. I know I repeat myself there, but I want to hammer it home so people understand that they have to be a contrarian to the herd. And then you know, maybe we can look at the whale data that's very telling. Yeah, so this is the part that I'm less about. There
¶ Bitcoin Whale activity
has not been any indication that Wales are starting to pile money back in. Like I said, we do this, We update this metric once a day, so there could be some signs once the market closes today that this
green line has started to pick up steam. Maybe they've added I don't know, maybe something like three to five k bitcoin would be reasonable for a given day, but going into today, as of yesterday's close, they've been on the decline for quite a while here going back to January fifteenth, they've dropped a little over half a percent of the entire supply, which is a ton. We can look at it in absolutes, just so we have a
precise number. Ten to ten thousand btc. This is the key group that owns a little over two thirds of the entire market cap, and they were holding thirteen point sixty eight million back in mid January and they've dumped a little over one hundred one thousand btc since. So no, they have not been like falling off a cliff in recent weeks, but it's still showing that they're moving in the wrong direction while retail has kind of flattened out. Like I said, they weren't too excited about this latest
dip yere so they weren't buying it too much. But the long term trend still shows retail going up, key stakeholders going down, and that has to change in order for this rally to have a more sustained longevity to it. Oh, absolutely so hopefully Brian Fringer's cross. I'm gonna keep refreshing this data every day, and folks, you could go sign up for an account to you know, start viewing these things. But I'm hoping that number, the whale number starts taking.
Upwards us too.
Yeah, I mean, this is really one of the best metrics we have for just midterm alpha. If you're a swing trader, I mean, this one is going to be right up your alley, we promise.
How about ethereum as far as sentiment and MVRV.
¶ Ethereum analysis
Yeah, we'll start with ethereum because we already have it open here. This actually is a nice way of just looking at all of the thirty days thirty day mvrvs right next to each other.
Just switch this to BTC.
So we've got bitcoin in pink, We've got etherium in red Ardano, which you can see has blasted into positive range. He is about middle of the road right now, and chain link has also blasted into positive. But in terms of Ethereum, it's down about negative six percent still. It's actually, of these five assets, the one that has the most opportunity still because it's been so hammered over the past month or so, I mean, going back to January twenty eighth when it was at that local top, it's dropped
about twenty four percent. So it's not a surprise to see ethereum still showing an average trading return of negative six percent over the past thirty days.
Interesting to it certainly has some catch up to do, and you know, we'll see how this hardest relief rally goes. So some of these other leading all coins start out performing it, maybe eth will eventually catch up, but we'll have to wait and see.
Yeah, I think there's definitely an argument for that, and there are some key players that are going to dictate whether Ethereum can go on another run the way it did last summer. And remember I remember doing a show with you around that time, Tony, where we talked about how much fud there really was toward Ethereum and how it's going to likely surprise people when it has a
little bit of a breakout. Literally like within three days or so after our video, it went on this enormous run, doubled in market cap or something, and eventually we all kind of hit that all time high, or all the top caps kind of hit that same local top when Bitcoin hit their all time high in early October. But Ethereum had a great run in the middle of last year and then started to regress right around late January and has been one of the harder hit alt coins.
So all that being said, I see that sentiment is kind of in mid range, maybe just slightly above that median line, which is probably right around here. So yes, it's getting a little bit of fomo, not quite as much as bitcoin, but either way, it's just over the last twenty four ish hours or so, it's up almost fifteen percent, which is great to see.
So, Brian, let's look at XRP sentiment and MBRB.
¶ XRP analysis
So xrp's positive to negative sentiment ratio is actually saying just barely. It looks like it's highest positive day since late January. So yeah, there's definitely some fomo going on here. XRPS approaching that coveted one fifty support line once again, So we'll see how people react if there's just a little bit more of a climb in the next you know, eight to twenty four hours or so. But right now people do appear to be getting a little hyped toward
XRP once again. In terms of MVRV, so the thirty day just went back above the zero percent line. It's pretty much right on it now. But in terms of this essentially means that if you were to buy in now, or add onto your position, you'd no longer be doing it while there's a tremendous amount of pain among other
XRP traders. Those XRP traders that our euro essential competitors have caught up and are back at that C level line basically the three sixty five day line, though however, still shows way way high pain points on average with a negative thirty five and a half percent average return. If you're in it for the long run, XRP looks like a nice bet for the rest of the year, assuming crypto can start to gain momentum itself. If you're in it for the short term swing trades, it's going
to be very unpredictable at the moment. According to MVRVW. Wow, Yeah, that's very very telling.
So I'm just giving the chart that you shared before, would eat you know, that might be a better bet because it's still below the neutral.
Yeah, if it all depends on your timeframe for investment strategy, if you're trying to decrease your risk as much as possible, Ethereum is the lowest of those top gaps at the moment in terms of average trading returns, so you'd be buying in while others are still well underwater for Ethereum, whereas for XRP for the short term, they're already back to square one.
Yeah, that makes sense. How about Salona? A sentiment has
¶ Solana analysis
been somewhat quiet, or at least relative to the hype that we often see for Solana, which is quite loud most of the time, kind of like Chainlay, kind of like Cardono, very loyal social media following for him. But right now, despite this big jump, the sentiment doesn't appear to be anything special. It's up sixteen percent and roughly a little over a day, and it's only getting about
two bullish comments per one bearish comment. And you compare that to something like here or is it three point six to one or even three point seven to one back in late January? So not really any evidence of crazy fomo for Solana relative to some of the big time fomo that we've seen in the past. Yeah, And it hasn't been much happening on the meme coin side, and not too much to be excited about with Solana.
And look at overall the entire markets down. But you know, a lot of Solana's upside has been around memes.
Yeah, remind me tone.
Do you remember what their their top market cap meme coin is.
Is it bunk? It might be that sounds right.
Yeah, I mean, I know Bank went on a huge run last year, but yeah, I mean, it isn't showing any crazy levels of fomo. It has risen a bit, but you know, these are like the big jumps that you would see for something like Bank. But you know, if meme coins do get on a run, yeah, which
should be mentioned. When you see these large caps start to go off the way they have usually trickles down over the next couple of days into mid caps and then meme coins, right, assuming we don't see you know, bitcoins suddenly retrace right back below sixty five k and all those profits evaporate too quickly.
Right?
Can we also look at uniswap and yeah, reason why
¶ Uniswap analysis
black Rock announced they're investing in the uniswap token. They're moving their money market fund on top of the or in the units up decks. So I'm curious how that's been performing.
Yeah, I'm interested to see what the long term effects are of that announcement, But so far, the sentiment doesn't appear to be showing any signs of the crowd registering it.
They're staying very neutral toward it.
We did see quite a jump as a result of that news, going up twenty four percent. But yeah, you can see right here the gold bars are staying low, not nearly what we saw with this kind of fomo or this kind of fomo.
That makes sense, which is good.
That means the mainstream crowd has not really caught up to the news. Maybe they have and they just don't think it's that big of a deal, but I know we do. I think that's that's the significant story for uniswap, which is the thirty third market gap out there right now. It wasn't like the top fifteen ish or so a couple of years back.
I remember.
So I know a lot of people who are rooting for you need to get right back to those coveted top spots.
Oh absolutely, And maybe that's that's part of the trade for black rock, right in addition to building on it, they're investing in the token because people don't seem to care about it. But and that's where you could, you know, like we were looking at those privacy coins that were pumping and then people eventually caught up to it, like wait, we kind of missed the boat on this and then Fomo kicks in.
Yeah, great point, all right, Brian.
So I hope that when we meet in a couple of weeks again that things are in a better place and we can see further upside, you know, hopefully fingers crossed. Yeah, Bitcoin, you know, maybe go goes up to eighty eighty to ninety k all coins have a nice relief rally, and that would be good.
We need something like that.
I mean, it's at least awesome to see that we're finally getting a mini breakout here. It's you know, this is objectively the best collective market cap jump for crypto that we've seen in twenty twenty six in terms of a twenty four hour span, so.
Certainly something to celebrate.
Hopefully you guys have not panic sold out before this happened, and if you did, you know, take it as a mild lesson that you can't overreact too much to a long sustained downturn and you can always rely on things like MVRV which we showed to help guide you and understand that there can only be so much average trade or pain before some sort of mild relief rally like this.
Happens. Yeah, I know.
It's remind folks like markets don't move in the same direction forever, whether it's up or down. Right, it's the same human emotions at play. When it's going up, Ryan, Oh, it's gonna keep going higher, you have these big bullish narratives, right, but then it tops out at some point when it's going down, you have those negative narratives AI this that, right, and then people give.
Up and then does the opposite. It's one of those things.
Once you see it, you can't unsee it, and it's like you kind of learn how to use it to navigate the markets and you know, to invest.
Yeah, I mean, and just briefly, I want to mention off of what you said. Look at how much binance was being talked about a couple of weeks ago, and how much they quote unquote scammed people. Regardless of your position of it. The Jane Street allegations that just came out over the last couple of days. All this stuff is very popular to talk about, but once market gaps go up, it's more like the crowd shrugs and says, a who cares about all that stuff. Let's focus on
which meme coin to pump next, you know. So it's it's a very what have you done for me lately? Industry and it always will.
Be for sure.
And folks, if you want to get access to this data and all this stuff Brian was showing with Sentiment and MVRV, you can sign up for a free trial with Sentiment. A link will be in the description and go check it out.
Folks. The data will really help you to navigate the markets. Thanks so much, Tony.
All right, Brian catching in a couple of weeks and hopefully we're seeing, you know, a bigger rally.
Bitingers cross Man, Cheers