Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. On your way in, please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple or wherever you get your podcasts, go ahead and hit that five star rating and leave a review. Folks. It's a very big week for the Etherorem spot ETF. This is going
to be very interesting. What will scumbag regulator Gary Ginster and the SEC do. Will they approve or deny these ETFs because we have some very big players who are issuers of the Bitcoin spoty TF in the ETF race that includes Venek twenty one shares and arc hashtecks Racecale Investo and Galaxy, black Rock and Fidelity. Now, unlike the Bitcoin SPOTYTF situation, this is more complicated because there's
questions as to if Etherorem is a security. Those are not questions I have, but these are things that are coming up from the SEC, and we're going to go through multiple reports and what different sources are saying. First, let's talk about the overall consensus and sentiment, because we see a lot of people are saying this is not going to happen. There's low confidence that this is going to get approved, and this is coming from many top analysts.
So here's a headline from MarketWatch saying ether ETFs are unlikely to arrive this month. Get ready for more legal battles ahead. Here's what Emily Graffeo, reporter at Bloomberg, had to say my latest reporting on the spot ether ETF race.
Some issuers are expecting a rejection next week because their private dialogue with the SEC hasn't been as robust as it had been prior to the approval of the spot bigcoin ETFs, So unlike the BITCOINSPOTYTF situation, there's been very limited dialogue and back and forth between the SEC and the issuers, so they're getting the feeling that this is not going to happen. Here's what Nate Garachi, president of the ETF Store, who has a ton of experience with ETFs, he
said, SEC decision deadline this week on spot e ETFs. SEC must approve both the nineteen b nash fours exchange rule changes and s dash ones registration statements for ETFs to launch. Technically possible for SEC to approve nineteen B nash fours and then slow play s ones. Especially given the reported lack of engagement here, folks, it gets even more complicated. It's not just the dialogue, but what we saw is that Elizabeth Warren and Gary Ginster were colluding for months
now to set the table for some sort of denial or delay here. If you go back up to March, we saw two Democratic senators sent a letter to Gary Ginster and the SEC saying no more ETFs, we have concerns about crypto, don't approve any more ETFs. When this news broke back in the middle of March, I told you guys, these random Democratic senators, they didn't just wake up and say we hate crypto, we hate ETFs. They were strategically placed to do that, to create the optics that it's not just
Elizabeth Warren. But we know Elizabeth Warren is the one pulling the levers behind the scene. And their names were Democratic Senators Jack Reid and Lafonza Butler, and they urged the SEC to crack down on what they called alarming deficiencies in crypto market and disclosure, so essentially saying no more ETFs. So right away they were setting the table here for what we could potentially see this weekend.
That is a denial. Now the other factor is literally a week later we got reports that the Etherorem Foundation was getting communications in the SEC, wells notices and all that stuff, looking to classify Etherorem as a security. Now that is a problem. Now a security can of course be in an ETF.
But this could be Gary's optics, right, He's going to use this as an excuse like, hey, we're doing an investigation, we are in litigation with these folks, so we can't approve anything because there's too much uncertainty here. So once again Gainser's building his case here. What we also saw is that consensus, which of course also works on Etherorem. They said that they were getting communications in the SEC, and then what they ended up doing was
suing the SEC. So what a mess the SEC has created. Because if you go back to under J. Clayton as the chairman of the SEC, Bill Hinman, which who reported to J. Clayton and got his approval, said Etherorem is not a security. Gary Genser refuses to ecodose statements and he refuses to even say a word to even Congress, right, Patrick McHenry asked them, sir, is ETHERRM as security or not? And Gary did not want to answer. So what a complete mess. So we could see Gary
Ginser delay the ETFs and use these things as excuses. And remember the only reason the Bitcoin spot ETFs got approved in the first place is because the courts forced the SEC to do so. They called the SEC arbitrary and capricious, and it ended up being Gary Ganser's siding with Hester person market way to get the ETFs approved. Two Democratic commissioners denied it, right, so it was a three to two vote, so it obviously went through, but you still
had two of them who said no. Unbelievable. Despite what the court said, they still chose to vote no. So this is what we're dealing with here. So there's certainly a major hurdle of the SEC. Now there are some who are still optimistic that this could get approved, and I don't think they're you know, right, you know, the probability of this getting approved is very low at this point. Now, it could still get approved in
this market cycle. But here coinbase says market underestimating timing and odds of Spot ETHEREMYTF, this is a statement by coinbase analyst David Hahn, a quote he says, we think the market may be underestimating the timing and odds of a potential approval on roads in a Thursday report, Ether may yet have the potential to surprise to the upside in the coming months and does not appear to have major sources of supply side overhangs such as a token unlocks or minor cell pressure.
Now, Coinbase, it's in their best interest to say these things, right, because they're building on etheroreum and etherorem is, you know, probably the most or the second traded assets out there behind bitcoin, so they're making money off of this. Do I think that we may see an etheroremist body t have in this bullmarket cycle later in the bull market cycle? I think so. I think so. Now, I'm not giving it one hundred percent probability. I'll say sixty percent, right, so more than fifty percent.
But I don't think we see it this week. But you never know, right, we could get surprised, maybe folks, and hear me out now, maybe Gary doesn't want to get sued by black Rock, Fidelity, Arc, all of the above, great gray scale and so forth, with the bitcoin ETF situation, it was only gray scale suing them. Now you have massive Wall Street powerhouses who have huge legal teams, tons of money and resources and so forth, who can tie you up in litigation. Does Gary want
to deal with that? I think the question goes back to Elizabeth Warren and you know how hard of a stance is she taking here? Maybe the losses they took last week with the Senate repealing SAB one two one, and then in the previous week the House repealing SAB one to one, the narrative and optics changing for them, maybe they back down a bit, right, Who knows? These are the questions and things are going to happen this week.
It's it's very fascinating, folks. Also, yesterday I shared with you guys crypto wizards analysis about etherorem saying, look, the theorem ETF denial is priced in and ETH has been bleeding, you know, on the bitcoin chart, the eth the bitcoin chart, so it is forming a falling wedge, which is bullish. And he said, look, we could see a breakout to fifty one hundred over the next couple months, of course, so things are still going to move forward with the market so we'll see what happens. It's
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in the description. Now, folks, the other big thing happening this week is the FIIT twenty one crypto regulation bill in the House. What a week that's coming up, right, and the so called FIT twenty one, legislation to establish a US regulatory regime for digital assets, is set for a floor vote next week, and the sector is telling House leaders the effort is crucial.
So many industry powerhouses and leaders send a letter to the folks in the House saying we got to get this through, including coinbased cracking Andreeson Horowitz Digital Currency Group in about fifty others. Now, this bill would set the CFTC as the leading regulator of digital assets as it sets out clear divisions for what the CFTC will handle and what would fall under the reach of the SEC. It would establish consumer protections, including rules around custody of customers assets and their
treatment in bankruptcy, and set up further guardrails against risky behavior. So, of course, this is what we've been talking about for a long time, folks. We need balance regulations, allows for innovation, protects consumers right, and it clearly delineates between the SEC and CFDC duties and who has to do what. And I believe more power needs to go to the CFDC because they're not as politically driven. Don't get me wrong, they are politically driven to
some degree. A lot of the federal agencies are, but we see the SEC has been rotten at its core, led by scumbag regulator Gary Ganser. So this is a big time vote. And folks, if this makes it out of the House, it will be historic, the first comprehensive crypto market structure bill coming out of the House. It will be historic. Now,
I don't think it makes it to the Senate right away. We got the election coming up, and I think it needs to be merged with Senator Lummis and Jillibrand's bill, and I think maybe we get something through the Senate next year. But getting out of the House will be a massive loss for Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gantszer and could really put them back on their heels and it
would be very bullish for the market. Now here's what Ryan Selkis of Missuri had to say regarding this, because there's so many layers to this political crypto mashup here, right, he said, the FT twenty one vote this week will be a big one in DC. We'll see if crypto remains a partisan football. It's a legacy defining moment for a representative. Maxine Waters plus Waters vote will likely make or break hockeing Jeffrey's chance at Speaker of the House for
the next Congress. Why he says, there's three things you should know about the political dynamics of this vote. I'll unpack them all. Number One SBF Sam mcmcfried embarrassed the Democrats and Waters. Number two. As Waters goes, so does the Democrat conference. Number three, Liz warrens saw one to one rebuke opens the door for a potential landslide fit twenty one win. We saw the Democrats sided with the Republicans to repeal this both in the House and the
Senate. Huge loss for Elizabeth Warren and Gary Genser. Number three the SBF picture, the one that Maxine Waters took with SBF. We know it's made the rounds. It's pretty famous. The truth is that Waters and McHenry talking about Patrick McHenry have had a cordial relationship and worked productively together for many years. Their approach to crypto has legitimately been a good faith, bipartisan effort. Sam screwed it up. Number four. SBF was a master at the DC
game, but his FTX fraud burned our DC friends. It allowed adversaries like Liz Warren to attack and force allies like Waters to retreat. Waters face pressure to step away from the FT twenty one when FTX collapsed and the GP took control of the House. Number five. This has led to a dynamic of written about, which is one Liz Warren shrieks about Crypto being evil to her.
Henchmen slash staffers, and the Biden administration apply pressure from all angles Number three that leads to anti Crypto calls from the White House to House leaders like Waters. Sand in the Gears number six. Here, he says, I wrote about this dynamic in the Annual Thesis in which I broke down this source of Liz Warren's power. This is probably word for word the most precise political analysts, and he went through the whole thing. I'm not going to read
through that for you guys. So he says, why drag Leader Representative Jeffries into this? I had the opportunity to look him in the eye explicitly call out the Warren White House Waters dynamic and ask a question. He said it would take time plus effort to bring Representative Maxine Waters around. He says, I wrote about the exchange number eight. I highlight that exchange for two reasons one. Representative Jeffries strikes me as a good, strong leader, even though
I probably disagree with many of his policies. He defers to his committee chairs. Number two a one line stuck with me. He said that Waters has no shrinking violet to Lass number nine. There was a lot of subtext in the meeting, but to me, the punchline was politics, maybe a team sport. But Representative Maxine Waterers answers to no one in the Senate. That is why last week SAB one two one pressure was so critical. It's opened the door for a bipartisan FT twenty one vote. Number ten, Liz Warne's
anti crypto crusade has been extremely costly for the Democrats. They should be irate at her bad faith engagement with the crypto industry. It will cost them the Senate, likely the White House, but might not cost them the House if FIT twenty one passes by two hundred plus votes. Now, he continues on, but I wanted to give you guys some perspective there and some insights. This is a very big week, folks, because this makes it out of
the House. Democrats joined the Republicans again and continued this momentum that they use to repeal SAB one two one in the House and Senate. It's going to be d day for Elizabeth Warren and Gary Genzer. They were not going to have a good week, So fingers crossed. Even if Gary denies the ethereums body Tapps, he's losing the war. He may win that ethereomy you know etf battle right there, but he's losing the war here. So big things in the works, folks. I'm very bullish. I was in DC last
week and crypto is a big topic. It can't be ignored. I've been telling you guys. It has become ubiquitous. We're seeing penetration in politics, pop culture, the traditional financial markets, society and much more. And no one can ignore it anymore, even in the political realm. Regardless of your party, Republican or Democrat, young, old, whatever you is, you got to talk about it, you got to bring it up. It's here to stay and it's only going to grow in prominence and awareness. So exciting
times ahead. I would love to know what you guys think. Leave your thoughts and comments below. Folks, don't forget to check out my book, Rethinking Crypto to Crash of FTX and a rise of savor stronger digital assets. You can grab a copy on Amazon, paperback and digital. Buy a copy to support the podcast. Also buy some copies that give to your family and
friends who want to learn about crypto. It touches on crypto's past, president and future, give some tips for investing in crypto, talks about tokenization, the big quinn etf rays, why Gary Ginz on the sec have been attacking the industry, why Sam mcn freed and FTX were not the ethos of crypto, and much more. Check it out, guys, grab a copy. Thank you for watching and listening, Thank you for your support, and I'll talk to you all later.