DID THE IRAN WAR CANCEL THE CRYPTO RELIEF RALLY?

I'm sure many of you are aware of the war happening with Iran and the strikes that are happening in all these things. Right, there's a whole political conversation about that, and obviously we don't want to make a light of war, but rather the situation is what it is. So we have to talk about what is the impact on the markets, because we're going to have to see how things pan

out next week, especially when the markets open up on Monday. Now, when I say when the market's opened up on Monday, i'm talking about the stock market, right, the trad fire world. But crypto guys, very good side. Bitcoin held up despite short term volatility. It's still held up. It's trading at sixty seven thousand dollars, so we didn't have some major collapse. And one of the things that this war situation could do for the markets. It could further put fear out there,

and we've been in extreme fear. But the point is it continues to add fuel to the fire from markets to rally, because the market always does the opposite of the herd and what the mainstream or the masses are thinking. We're seeing headlines from the New York Times saying crypto is useless and pointless and all these things. Right, so you have these conditions that are all there for a major relief rally, and that's what we've been waiting for.

So a good sign that Bitcoin and all coins held up for the most part, because we've seen historically that certain blackswan events and things along those lines could cause markets to collapse. So there's no major panic here, guys. For bitcoins. That's a very good sign. And the charts are still telling the story here. You know. It's kind of like show me the charts and I'll tell you

the news. Right. Well, Bitcoin is still within that range, just chopping in that range, and of course the RSI is moving away from the over soul zone but still has room to run. The mac D on the daily is in control by the bulls on the weekly, we are bottoming out. You can see a green candle forming here. Even though it's small. The RSI on the weekly is starting to curve. It's currently in the over soul zone, so it's starting to move away from that. So that's

a good sign. And here one analyst highlighted the following chart saying Bitcoin is playing off the same five day RSI regression going back to November twenty eighteen and June twenty twenty two, so times in the market when we saw extreme volatility and some bottoming. So this is a very good sign. And again I'm not saying we're going to new all time highs. I give that maybe a

one to two percent chance. You know, as far as probabilities, there is maybe a ten percent probability that we dump lower, but I believe the higher probability is a relief rally. Then we roll over two lower lows. Now is that guaranteed? Of course not, guys, right, that's where we're talking probabilities. The people who are telling you this is exactly what's going to happen, they're lying to because they don't have

a crystal ball. And if they can see the future, please ask them for the winning lottery numbers next week, so this is very good. Now, one comparison that people are highlighting here and here analyst Benjamin Cohen put together a chart is that the Ukraine Russia war, which was announced in February twenty twenty two, bitcoin rallied had a relief rally before ultimately rolling over. Now what's different this

time around is that we are extremely over sold. We're actually at the levels that we saw with FTX in the December of twenty twenty two. So it's not apples to apples, but rather how did the market react, you know, based on the war announcement and these things happening. And again, setup is there for a relief rally, and we've been talking about a move to potentially eighty to eighty five. Possibly it overshoots, goes to the nineties. Some people are

saying one hundred and five, then rerollover. Now, some other supporting metrics for this thesis is that USDT dominance, which has been on the rise obviously since the market has been down, staple coin liquidity has been rising, that is in the overbought zone, so it looks like it's on the verge of rolling over. And of course that liquidity makes its way into the market, So again you have some supporting data points here. And another factor is that

bitcoin whales have been buying it. And for the first time in a long time, retail wallets have been dumping and the bitcoin whales are accumulating. Now it's not anything to call home about. We want to see more of a disparity between these two because they're still closely aligned here as far as the degree of separation, so we want to see more and more of it. But I think again, guys, all the factors that we want to see,

they are in place before. A relief rally is certainly showing us a high probability, and even many different charts, even like the bitcoin rainbow charts, is showing that we are in the dolo cost average zone. So all these things, historical metrics and much more are just screaming some sort of local bottom here. A relief rally is due because

the masses the mainstream are in fear. Whether it be because the prices are down or macro factors like the Iran war, all these things are setting up for a reversal, right, a counter trend move. So let's be patient and let's see what the month of March brings us as far as that major move. I love the chart that crypto currently put together where he outlined three major bitcoin scenarios

saying prepare for multiple outcomes. So his base case is that this is a shallow bear market, so we're not going to the fifty k's or the forty k's, right, but rather the sixty k's is the bottom. And there's obviously tons of metrics to support that, such as extreme fear touch such as the RSI touching levels that we've seen in previous beer market bottoms. So I'm in agreement

with that, you know. I think it's a shallow bear with a relief rally before we go down and test some lows, but not necessarily breaking sixty K. The other one is a normal beer market where we continue to go down and we go touch like thirty eight k or forty k, and then the low is in is what he's saying. But he's saying this is unlikely where this is the low and we start climbing to higher highs. I don't think that's going to happen. I think even if we don't go below sixty k or whatever it is,

we still chop sideways for a while. So again you got to look at multiple scenarios because we don't have a crystal ball, and we'll see how the market plays out, but we want to be educated about all these things. Now. Another factor here, highlighted by Matthew Hyland, is that all Coin Dominance monthly has broken out, flashing signals not seen since June twenty twenty. So the all coin market so depleted, right, which really hurts? Right, Yeah, I mean I look at my portfolio,

I'm like, oh, that's brutal. But you know, I tend not to look at my porfolo too much because it's too depressing. But anyway, this is a very good sign that it's breaking out. The MACD has slipped green, so the bulls are in control. So the trend lines that were used to analyze this shows a breakout, so all in due time. Another macro factor, which I'm sure many of you saw, is that the ISM specifically for Chicago

saw a move upward, a breakout upward. And we're waiting for the full ISM data, which is the manufacturing data on Monday, and if that follows that trend, again, just more data points, more factors, right, that are piling up here, setting the stage for a relief rally. So we're gonna

have to be patient here, guys. And you know, our hope is that Bitcoin goes as high as possible, even though it's not going to new all the time highs, so that that liquidity hits the all coins and we see somebody's alt rally, at which point I'm going to

take some small profits. I'm not in a position where I absolutely need the money and that type of thing, so I'll take some profits, I'll bitcoin some of the all coins, and then I'm going to look to continue to accumulate and wait for the next bull market, you know, twenty twenty seven into twenty twenty eight. So this is where, guys, we absolutely absolutely have to be patient, and you've got

to check your emotions and have the macro view. I know many of us were disappointed with the last bull market. I certainly was, but this is how it goes. And one of the important things to keep in mind is we are seeing adoption like never before. We're at the cusp of getting crypto market structure legislation, and I think as these on rams and infrastructure is being set up by trad fi and then you get the legislation. It's

going to allow trillions to come into this market. So the valuations of these blockchains and their native tokens, they're going to skyrocket, but we got to be patient now, folks. Quick word from our sponsor, and that is properties leading to charge of putting real estate on chain. I'm a Propy token holder, I have been since twenty eighteen. I'm very bullish on this project. So they're using AI and

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that on LinkedIn. These major banks are hiring crypto people. So it's part of the infrastructure build out. And despite the banks pushing back on stable cord legislation, they're all in. Guys. They're all building, looking to launch crypto trading, launch their own stable coins, tokenization custody. You know, yesterday we talked about Morgan Stanley filing with the OCC to custody crypto, Sofi Bank opening up Solana deposits, and Barclay's Bank, which

is a UK bank. They are looking to build some sort of blockchain for payments and much more so, these banks are all in. So here's an example. Goldman Sachs is hiring someone for equity research large banks, brokers and crypto. In addition, Jeffries is looking to have a equity research associate crypto and digital assets. So if you're on LinkedIn, go check it out, guys, go see it for yourself.

They're building out their divisions, they're hiring the talent and they're getting ready to integrate the blockchain technology and crypto as much as possible. So this is very very bullish news. Okay,

now this is interesting. Eleven US senators request federal probe into Binance's sanctions compliance. Now there's a lot of drama with Binance because of the Trump administration, Caz getting pardoned and much more so. Some politics involved here, But I don't know where this leads. Look, Brinnance already went through this, you know where they paid their fine and all that. Sez went to jail and all those things. So I don't know where this leads. I don't know if this

is some posturing politically. But in a letter on Friday to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Attorney General Pam Bondi, the lawmakers urged a prompt, comprehensive review of the exchange's compliance controls and its adherents to settle agreements reached in twenty twenty three. The senators pointed to allegations that approximately one point seven billion dollars in digital assets flowed through Binance to Iranian entities linked to terrorism, including groups can I,

to the Hutus and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpse. So again I don't know where this goes. I don't know if this is some political posturing and then you know, obviously you throw in the war that's happening. So we shall see. But just something you guys should be aware of. Final news item Ethereum smart accounts are finally coming within a year,

says Vitallic Booterm. So the Etheroreum Foundation and developers are certainly looking to make some big upgrades to EAT to continue its usability. So Ethereum account abstraction or smart accounts will be shipped with the Hagoda upgrade within a year. Of Metallic booteran set on Saturday, we have been talking

about account abstraction ever since early twenty sixteen. He added that now we finally have EIP eight one four one and omnibus that wraps up and solves every remaining problem that account abstraction was intended to address, plus more and is slated to deploy this year. He said, Finally, after a decade of research and refinement of these techniques, this all looks possible to make within a year via the Goota fork. So guys, many of you know I hold

Ethan my portfolio. It is getting incredible adoption by institutions, and recently we heard about you know, Vitalics saying that, look, L twos are not as important. We want to continue to build out the layer one of E theorem and looks I don't know how that fares for somebody's L twos. I think there's too many L two's out there, but that's okay. This is the free market, and eventually there might be some consolidation and some may not work out, but there will be L twos. I think that exists,

but just not the amount that we're seeing today. But ETH, I believe is going to be one of the winners coming out of this technology. And I think it's going to continue to do well, and I'm betting on it and I'm staking as well, and I hold a good amount of ETH token, so looking forward to it hitting new all time highs in the next ball market. Anyway, folks,

that's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button, and guys, be sure to subscribe to my free email newsletter. I'll be putting on a write up on Monday. You don't want to miss it, especially after the big Macro news with Iran and all these things and what the charts are doing. I held off on writing up a

report yesterday just because of the news. I'm like, you know what, let the dust settle and let's see how the market's open on Monday, and then we can, you know, go from there. So make sure you subscribe. It's one hundred percent free. Link will be in a description. Be sure to grab a copy of my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback in digital. And be sure to check out my course at mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need

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