¶ Intro
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a common blow. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
¶ Bitcoin and crypto market analysis
let's get into bitcoin because I know a lot of people are getting bored, frustrated. The emotions are starting to come out, and you know, I've been telling you guys, don't be emotional about markets because we're just going through the cyclical patterns. There has been no invalidation of the bull market. And while the current market conditions can eat away at your confidence or hope and things like that. Again, we don't want to invest with emotions, So we got
to go to the data. And that's what I want to share with you guys. In addition to some crypto news. Now, I put a lot of this content out today in a newsletter on Substack. Make sure you're subscribed. It's one hundred percent free, and I break down a lot of these charts. If you want to slow down the pace and start looking through the data and the charts that I provide in a newsletter, you can certainly do that. So Bitcoin on the daily right now knocking at the
door of the oversoul zone. It has not dropped a low thirty yet, so it seems like it wants to head there, and it's been kind of moving sideways a bit chopping before it dumps down. Now that would be healthy because what we've seen is a cyclical pattern of going to the overbought zone where the price rallies to a new high, then a big correction into the over sol zone, where we find support levels that don't invalidate the bull market, and then we bounce and keep going up.
So same cyclical pattern is playing out here. But one thing I want to caution you all about is that on the weekly chart, the Bitcoin weekly chart, the mac D shows the bears are in control. It's in the red. So we may have another week, another two weeks of some downside and then finding the bottom and then start rallying. I do believe, as I've stated recently, that we're going to start rallying out of this hole come later in September, and the rally picks up in October because we've seen
this seasonality. There are some big news items that are lined up like raycuts, the Clarity Act, which we'll talk a bit about today, and much more. So at this point, stay strong, expect volatilty, but we're still on track despite what's happening here. If you look at the Bitcoin monthly chart, everything again still on track. No invalidation, higher highs, higher lows. We are comfortably above the two hundred day moving average on the monthly Bulls are in control. You can see
the green here mac d everything looks good. The RSI not in the over sold zone as far as how heated. It has been at the tops of previous bull markets, so that's a very good sign. We're nowhere near what we've seen in twenty seventeen or twenty twenty one, so we've come close, but we have not entered that green zone for the RSI on the monthly chart. So again one in en dowed Zoom out. Now. One of the things I've been highlighting to you guys is that gold
has been a leading indicator in this bullmarket. If you look at the charts, it completely shows you that. Because we're in a macro bull market for all assets, all of it is following global liquidity. That's why real estate's hitting you all time highs, precious metals, cryptos, stocks and so forth. So gold has hit a new all time high. You look at the chart, it looks very very good. Now, I do believe a top is coming in for gold. It is currently in the overbought zone, so it's RSI
is in that seventy and above zone. So get ready for possibly a sharp correction on gold maybe after a little bit of upside, and then we are going to see rotation among the assets. And even Matthew Siegel of van k highlighted the correlation between gold and bitcoin. So he says, here, every gold rally sparks the same pattern, bitcoin breaks out bigger. It's the macro rotation of liquidity. Now.
I know these things may be new concepts to you guys, but I've been researching and studying these things for years and I'm happy to now share that education with you, right because we want to be educated, not emotional about the market. So again we're seeing the same pattern we've seen throughout this bullmarket, and gold as being the leading indicator for the bullmarket now as it relates to bitcoin.
I shared some of these charts in the newsletter. But Bitcoin from an Elliott wave analysis standpoint, this is showing again downside in the short term, but we got upside to go, and this bullmarket blow off top happening within the next four to six months. Now we don't have a crystal ball because we've seen things like tariff crashes and much more slow us down push the timeline back.
So as I've been telling you guys, this bull market could bleed into twenty twenty six, but we're gonna have to wait and see where the next rally starts and then adjust our thesis and our timelines. But an Elliot wave analysis shows that this downside here a wave two and then you have the big wave three move into Q four. So again patients is the key. And if you even do this for the total market cap, that
is also showing the same pattern. So even the Fibonacci analysis but a total market cap shows we are nowhere near the four point two three six extension, which would put us a bit over ten trillion dollars, and I
do believe the market can get there. If you think about stable coin liquidity, including stable coin liquidity, these assets all hitting new highs and you know, you have so much more happening now with institutional investors coming in, digital asset treasury companies buying the et apps and much more so, there's a lot of demand, there's a lot of buying.
Despite what the price is doing right now, a lot of these treasury companies are buying ETPs, are buying I know some of you are gonna say, well, why isn't it moving the market? Well, this is where you got to have the education. A lot of these folks buy OTC over the counter, so they're not buying any open market. They go directly to exchanges or minors specifically for bitcoin, and they pay for the assets sometimes at a discounted rate, or if they are using the open market, they buy
in very small increments. Michael Sailor has talked about this. They buy, for example, they use coinbase and they will buy very small increments over time, and you don't even know. It looks like every other transaction, but it's actually a series of purchases happening. So that's why you don't see the buying being reflected here. And if you understand how Wales and institutional investors operate, they want to take a position, not move the market, then go out and put a
narrative on TV and move the market. Right. This is how it's played. This is what's done in the stock market and for other assets as well, folks, So you have to understand how the game is played. Now a big macro catalyst that a lot of people view as more of a psychological thing. It is not necessarily a fundamental issue, but more once again psychological for the retail
and that is Raycuts. Now. One of the things I've been telling you guys, despite Jerome Powell getting pressure, people calling him names, the president, different people, and you know, the whole political dog and pony show, he's not gonna budge because he's looking at his legacy and what he's very much concerned about is, of course the labor market, but also the bond market. And that's what a lot of people won't tell you. But some very good signs
here coming from the bond market. So the bond market is leaning towards raycuts. The two year treasury yield is drifting lower, signaling expectations that the Fed will keep easing. So this is very good and you know, I think they will continue to do their liquidity injections. They haven't done full on QI, but they've done pseudo QI, you know, draining the Treasury General account and much more so. The
liquidity overall has been going up. You got global liquidity and hitting new highs and so forth, and I highlighted this in my newsletter. Global liquidity still shows the upside move here for bitcoin and crypto assets. Question is are we going to see a breakout to new highs come November, because right now it shows that top being in late September bid into October, so it looks like it's on the rise here, but we need confirmation. So as time progresses,
we're going to see the data roll in. And if you do look at the M two charts for the US and China and other countries, it's all on the rise. So folks, risk assets are of course adjusted accordingly based on global liquidity. All right, moving ahead, Michael Sailor strategy
¶ Michael Saylor Strategy & Robinhood S&P500
will not be included in the S and P five hundred. The other day I told you guys that potentially they could be. But what's interesting, Robin Hood got put into the S and P five hundred, and we know they have gone full on crypto. I recently interviewed the CEO of lad Tenev. If you haven't seen that, check it out. They know the future of running on blockchain rails, so they're tokenizing assets. They're doing a lot and many of these companies that are doing crypto initiatives and offer services
are getting a lot of spotlight and are growing. So this is very very good folks. Quick word from our sponsor, and that is Propy. Propy is leading to charge with putting real estate on chain. You can buy and sell your house on Propy and you can receive crypto for it. So if you want to sell your house for bitcoin or xrpi e theorem, you can do that. And Propy's platform is blockchain power, so the contracts and all these things are done on chain, which is pretty amazing. Propy
has been around since twenty seventeen. They've facilitated over four billion dollars in transactions and they're a licensed Web three pioneer. They have put deeds on chain, They've created NFTs for properties and for the buying and selling and the scrow service. They use Coinbase, so they are partnered with some very trusted institutions. So I am a Propy token holder. I
have been since twenty eighteen. I recognize what they were doing since twenty eighteen, and I'm like, look, I see the future being on blockchain, and real estate is the world's largest asset class, and guys, we know it's going to get tokenized. We know what's coming. It's starting with stocks right now, it's starting with gold. But you know they're going to disrupt the whole real estate industry with blockchain, tokenizing certain buildings and doing much more. And propies leading
the charge, folks. So if you'd like to learn more about propygo to propy dot com. Link will be in the description. Now, we have some very big updates around
¶ SEC & CFTC Crypto news
the SEC and the CFTC. They continue to ramp up efforts to provide clarity for the market. Just recently, we've been seeing a lot of clarity coming from the SEC as well as the CFTC. They both got their crypto initiatives. One is called Crypto Sprint, the other's Project Crypto. So things are moving in the right direction. So here we got an update that the SEC and CFDC are ramping up coordination to support crypto DeFi prediction markets, perpetual contracts,
and margining. The two agencies are aiming to harmonize rules, reduce regulatory gaps, expand trading hours, and use innovation exemptions to keep the US markets competitive. A joint roundtable to be held on September twenty nine to discuss next steps. Folks, this is what we want to see because if these two agencies provide the clarity that's needed, it will usher in tons of capital because many of these institutions and big financial players some who still can't touch this acid class,
especially that the Clarity Act is not passed yet. You know, they need to make sure the SEC and CFDC are on board because they're lawyers. Their attorneys are going to say, hey, too risky. We need confirmation we needed in writing. It can be that Okay, President Trump is pro crypto. No, we need the agencies to also have this all out there, the clarity in there, because they're not going to take the risk. I've heard this many times from many institutional
players and people who work with those institutional players. So great to see this happening, and again it will usher in more capital, which will drive the prices of the assets higher. In addition, the SEC is not playing around. They've announced the formation of a cross border Task Force to combat fraud. This is great. You know, one of the things I've been telling you guys about is I believe in the free market. I don't believe mean coin should be banned. And I'm just using this as an example,
but you need to have guardrails. We can't have pump and dumps. And this article talks about a lot about pump and dump and ramp and dump schemes. So they're gonna start going after those people who are taking advantage of these platforms and not doing the right things. So if you are doing these bad activities trying to rug pull people, you better watch out. And guess what, it's not just us. They will go after you across the border.
So that's a cross border task force, right, So if you're doing it from another country and you're affecting US users, get ready, man, you're gonna have You're gonna be in trouble. You know, they're going to coordinate with the other agencies, regulatory agencies around the world, and you know, with all these countries now moving to some sort of standard with crypto legislation and everybody plugging into the blockchains and so forth, it's going to be easy. It's going to be easy.
So this is very good, folks. I've been waiting to hear about something like this where these agencies can go after these pump and dumpers and rug pullers and much more. Now, folks,
¶ Clarity Act updates
some very good signs around the Clarity Act, the Crypto Market Structure bill. We know David Sachs White House Cryptos are said that they're expecting in late September to start the process. Now it's an annoying process, right. You've got to vote for the bill to be even considered on the floor, then you have to vote to have it moved to be reviewed. It's all these bells and whistles. But you know, we saw this with the Genius Act.
But what you want to see is progress with the draft and that the details are updated based on the feedback of the industry, so that you have a quality bill that reflects what the industry wants, that protects users, provides or opens up innovation, and is ready to hit the Senate floor. So Eleanor Tarrett reported that the Senate Banking Committee's latest Market Structure draft reflects stakeholder and lobbyist feedback. Here are some standouts from the texts and ciliary assets.
This section aims to provide that staking and air drops are not securities, as well as providing the SEC enforcement actions and private lawsuits cannot be brought against existing tokens issued before the date of enactment, providing they are not fraudulent. It also touches on deepen I'm not going to read through everything. It also talks about protecting software developers, self custody protections, and much more. So very positive sign folks.
This makes me very bullish. Things are moving ahead. We're seeing progress right, even though it may not go as fast as we want. But remember this is an alignment with a huge narrative that could bring us the blame off top that once this starts passing in the Senate and much more, all coin ETPs get approved by the SEC. Because the deadlines in October, We're setting up for a massive parabolic move so that these things are going to drive the narrative. So very bullish now, folks. Recently I
¶ Trump Media buys CRO Coin
told you all about Crypto dot Com partner with Trump Media. Well apparently Trump Media closed the deal to buy the six hundred and forty million in cro tokens. Now, guys, one thing I am concerned about is all these things happening with Trump and his company and his family involved with crypto, and people are saying he's making tons of money. You know, a lot of Democrats are not going to like that, right, and even if you're not Democratic, a lot of independent people don't like it as well. And
don't get me wrong, some Republicans as well. So I don't want this to seem like, you know, it's just the Republican versus Democrat thing, but a lot of Democrats in the game of politics, they're going to try to use this to potentially block that market structure. I hope it doesn't happen. And you know, all these things happening with Trump's meme coin and we're a liberty financial it's
it's a bit too much. I would I wish the Trump family if they wanted to involve be involved in crypto, they would uh wait for the bill to pass before they do this stuff. But we can't control that. But nevertheless, they're partnering with crypto dot Com. They're purchasing the cro token. So if you are a CRO token holder, this is
very good. I personally don't hold a token, and I think it could do well, you know, based on the exposure, the distribution is going to get here and uh, you know, probably a lot of Trump fans are going to invest in this now moving ahead. Uh, Brazil's largest asset manager,
¶ Brazil Asset Manager Crypto
and I hope it down Butcher, This LAO asset forms uh dedicated crypto units. So it's LOO assets. I know it's again. I may not be pronouncing it right, but I often tell you guys, crypto is a global asset class and we are seeing development movement investment across the globe. So LAO Asset Management, Brazil's largest private asset manager, has created a dedicated cryptodivision and appointed former Hashtags executive HUAW Marco Braga the TUNA to lead the unit. The new unit.
The unit builds on the company's existing crypto products, including the bank's Bitcoin exchange traded fund and a retirement fund offering exposure to digital assets. The company has or they manage one trillion rayas, which is one hundred and eighty five million dollars in assets for its clients. Here's a quote. The crypto asset segment has unique characteristics for generating alpha. It's a relatively new market that creates major opportunities due
to its volatility folks. Again, I often say this, do you see what's happening? There is a global race, and you still have people out there who think this is a scam because they haven't taken the next step to educate themselves. They just see the speculation market, but they don't see the technology and the disruption and the utility of all this and this being that next layer on top of the Internet. So it's going to change the way we do commerce and interact with each other and
trust each other in much more. But very bullish, I mean, incredible, incredible news here. Now look at this. NASDAK approves soul
¶ SOL Strategies Nasdaq
Strategies listing for next week. So it looks like this is a digital acid treasury company focused on Solana of course, so Canadian blockchain companies. Soul Strategies is set to debut on NASDAC next week after securing approval to list it shares. In a Friday notice, Soul Strategies said it would begin listing common shares on the NASDAK Global Select Market starting
on September ninth, under the ticker symbol st KE. The listing will end of the company's shares training on the over the counter venture market q or OTCQB while maintaining training activity on the Canadian Securities Exchange. So, folks, the expansion continues, right, companies going public getting publicly listed on stock exchanges around the globe, obviously more so in the United States because there was a huge block over the
past four years under Elizabeth Warren and Gary Genser. But now the floodgates are open and a lot of folks are going live on stock exchanges. Pretty incredible stuff now moving ahead, stable cooin x expands financing to eight hundred
¶ Ethena ENA StablecoinX
and ninety million dollars for Athena's e NA treasury. So stable coin x and tlgy acquisition have secured an additional five and thirty million dollars in financing to buy digital assets, bringing total commitments to eight hundred and ninety million dollars ahead of a plan merger and Nasdaq listing. Folks, look at the capital that is sloshing through this asset class in industry. People are bullish. They see the long term potential. And now that doesn't mean everything's going to be a winner,
but clearly these are signs of maturation and growth. We saw this in the dot com boom, so this is where you do have to be careful, of course, do your research, what are quality token projects, companies and much more. Be smart, right, Not just because a company got money means they're good or they're going to be properly run. You know, management and having a proper CEO and people making right decisions is important. So but but you know,
from a macro perspective, these are all healthy signs. So the combined company, to be renamed stable coin x, Incorporated, is set to hold more than three billion e NA, the native token of the Athena protocol. According to the company, it will be the first dedicated treasury business for the Athena ecosystem, which issues the USDE and usd TB stable coin. Now. I don't know much about the Athena protocol or blockchain and some of these stable coins, but man, that's a
lot of capital. They're going to get publicly listed, and again you want to be smart and see who's backing them and so forth. It looks like some big names Brevin Howard, Parafy, Capital, Han Ventures, Dragonflies, so a lot of big names here. So, folks, things are heating up. I know the prices don't reflect that right now, but again, don't be emotional, look at the data, look at the charts. The analysis I shared with you guys on this podcast as well as in my newsletter, so make sure you
go subscribe to that newsletter. It's one hundred percent free, folks. Check it out. Link will being a description and it has a lot of once again, the data points that I'm highlighting here, and it's a great way to educate yourself and get familiar with these things right start looking food them, notice the pattern recognition and all these things that are taking place. Folks. Also, check out my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback in digital. And check
out my course at my Crypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive course that teaches you every aspect of crypto. So if you'd like to learn more, go to Mycrypto course dot com. All the links of being a description. Thank you so much for watching and listening. I appreciate you all and I'll talk to you all later.
